The American Giants swept San Francisco at home to close the week — 14-7, 8-5, 6-3 — and scored 50 runs in 7 games, the most in the division. An encouraging sign for a franchise at a crossroads this season.
Chino Smith did a lot of the damage: 2 homers at Detroit in an x-y win/loss, then 3 hits and a 2-run shot in the first game of the sweep.
Sam Streeter struck out 10 in 5 innings in the opening victory over the Sea Lions, and veteran soft-tosser Jamie Moyer has quietly been effective early, winning 2 out of the bullpen over the 1st week.
Miami Cuban Giants
Julio Rodríguez was injured running the bases on the 3rd and is on the disabled list — a serious blow, as the 20-year-old center fielder hit 42 homers with a 1.008 OPS last season. Mark Kotsay was recalled, and will see time in the OF with CF largely being patrolled by Yasiel Puig and Andy Pafko in JRod’s absence.
Portland Sea Dogs
Huston Street was signed as a FA and put to work immediately, working 2 scoreless innings in a 5-3 win over Baltimore. Harry Matuzak was optioned to AAA Seattle to make room for Street.
Walter Johnson struck out 10 over 6 innings in an 11-9 win at Los Angeles, with Bobby Murcer collecting 4 hits and 4 RBIs and Ken Griffey Jr hitting a 3-run homer.
San Francisco Sea Lions
Five losses in 6 games, and a sweep in Chicago to finish, leaves the Sea Lions last in the division at 2-5. Wait, what?
The bats have not been the problem. In the 14-7 loss that opened the sweep in Chicago, Jimmie Foxx hit 2 solo homers and Bobby Bonds had 3 hits and a 2-run shot. Bonds’ blast flew 459 ft, the longest home run struck in the division this week.
Aaron Heilman will miss about a week with a shoulder sprain, with the Sea Lions recalling Tim Hudson from his rehab stint to take Heilman’s place in the bullpen.
Portland won the Cum Posey Division in 2000 and finished last there the following year, ending 2001 at 71-91, 32 games out. Nobody in the Pacific Northwest thought it could fall apart that fast, that hard.
The collapse was on the offensive side, and it wasn’t one man having a bad year. Gil Hodges led the club with 38 home runs and was worth −1.4 WAR, which takes some doing. Bobby Murcer hit 33 and finished at −0.4. Kiki Cuyler and Cliff Lee also went negative in real playing time. The Sea Dogs finished last in most offensive measures while 4 different men cleared 30 homers, empty totals boosted by the extreme nature of the league last season.
So they sold everything with an age on it. Rogers Hornsby went to the Black Yankees for Jake Peavy and a 1st. Buddy Bell went out for Robin Ventura and some arms. SS Jim Fregosi is gone, as are half the bullpen.
What’s left is young, perhaps recklessly so. Joseíto Muñoz is 20 and in the rotation. Walter Johnson (the clear ace) and Bert Blyleven are 21. Joe Mauer caught 125 games and took the organizational MVP at age 23. Ken Griffey Jr is 21 and already the best bat here.
Nobody in Portland is selling 2002 as a contention year, but getting back on track is the highest priority for the organization.
▌ 2001 Revisited
We opened last spring asking for a deep playoff run once again, with championship contention. They lost 91 games. There’s no reading of that which doesn’t make it the worst call we’ve ever printed.
The best case wanted everyone behind Johnson to step up — Blyleven as a real number 2, Dizzy Trout as a more consistent rotation option, even Elmer Brown converting into a starter out of the pen, and 1st-round pick Walter Ball stepping straight in. Ball delivered: a 4.26 ERA over 141 innings, which against a league that gave up 5.38 is genuinely good, and enough for the organizational Pitcher of the Year. But he missed half the season through injury. The rest were fine (Blyleven, Trout) or bad (Brown, others).
The worst case reads like it was written afterward. Hornsby and Hodges show the effects of age, and the OF regresses towards absolute mediocrity. Hodges hit 208/292/461. Murcer hit 250/311/489. Hornsby played well enough to be traded in July and is a Black Yankee now.
Johnson is the part nobody should skip past. He threw 214 innings with a 4.28 ERA and 182 strikeouts, led the club at 4.6 WAR, and won a Gold Glove on the mound. He is 21, and looks quite likely to dodge the standard concerns about consistency and injury that accompany young arms.
▌ Key Changes
In: Jack Billingham (IND); Royce Clayton (SFS); Robin Ventura (IND) Out: Buddy Bell (IND); Trevor Hoffman (SFS)
Opening Day Rookies: Chuck Klein; Willard Schmidt
▌ Best Case for 2002
The rotation arrives ahead of schedule. Johnson goes from very good to the best arm in the league. Ball’s 4.26 turns out to be who he is, over a full year this time. Muñoz holds a rotation spot and Peavy — who missed all of 2001 after coming over in the Hornsby trade — throws 150 healthy innings.
And, the bats do their part. Griffey starts taking a walk. Ventura steadies 3B. Abreu turns a 90-plate-appearance cameo into an everyday corner. And, perhaps, even Vladimir Guerrero, 21 and knocking from Vancouver, forces his way in.
Portland doesn’t win anything in 2002, but it could be a year the team can see the path back to where they were in 2000.
▌ Worst Case for 2002
Young pitching does what young pitching does. An elbow goes, Peavy’s lost year becomes a lost career, and Muñoz can’t stay healthy while Johnson drifts towards league average.
The bats stay put, which is the more likely problem, because there’s no internal fix waiting. SS is Hughie Jennings and Clayton and hope. 2B is Paul Molitor, who by common agreement can’t play there. Both corner OF spots are competitions between men who were below average last year.
And the real challenge is there isn’t much left to dump — this is the hand Portland drew, so regression can quite easily slide into apathy if no hope arrives.
▌ Key Questions
How long does this rotation stay together? Johnson, Ball, Blyleven and Muñoz are 21, 26, 21 and 20, and 3 of them have already thrown 140 or more WBL innings. That’s either the best young rotation in baseball or a list of injuries waiting to happen.
Does Griffey learn the strike zone? 292/326/568 with 33 homers at 21, and 23 walks in the whole season. He was worth 0.8 WAR while looking like the best hitter on the roster. This is an organization that has twice now chosen the on-base bat over the louder one — Mauer over Iván Rodríguez, Bell over Adrián Beltré, but Griffey remains on the periphery of that approach.
Who gets the ball in the 9th? Hoffman is in San Francisco. John Wetteland posted a 6.75 after arriving in Portland and a 9.90 before it. Huston Street was a waiver claim. Jack Billingham is the only reliever here who was reliably fine, and nobody has called him the closer.
▌ Roster Evaluation
Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.
Pos
Players
C
Mauer C · Ashby
1B
Hrbek B · Hodges F
2B
Molitor C · Frey
SS
Jennings · Clayton
3B
Ventura · Garrett
LF
Murcer D
CF
Griffey Jr B
RF
Abreu · Klein
DH
Hodges F
SP
Johnson C · Ball C · Blyleven D · Muñoz D · Peavy
RP
Billingham C · Street F · Wetteland F · Springer · Schmidt
Mauer is the quiet argument for the whole approach: a catcher who hit 278/360/463 with 31 steals, made the AL All-Star team and took the organizational MVP on a last-place club, at 23. Portland kept him over Rodríguez and has had no reason to revisit it.
▌ Talent Ratings
WBL
Minors
Raw Power
SP Dizzy Trout
RF Hugh Duffy
Batting Eye
3B Wayne Garrett
2B Jack Crooks
Contact
SS Hughie Jennings
LF Riggs Stephenson
Running Speed
SP Walter Johnson
LF David Hulse
Base Stealing
SS Hughie Jennings
LF David Hulse
IF Defense
SS Hughie Jennings
SS Bobby Wine; 3B Lee Tannehill
OF Defense
RF Bobby Abreu
CF Gary Pettis
Stuff
RP John Wetteland
RP Harry Harper
Control
SP Bert Blyleven
RP Jack Wisner
Velocity
RP Huston Street; RP John Wetteland
RP Migel Puente; SP Joaquin Benoit
▌ Best In The Minors
Rank
Age
Pos
Name
1 (5)
21
RF
Hugh Duffy
Others: IF Jack Fournier, P José Berríos, P Harry Harper, C Frankie Hayes.
Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Chuck Klein (83).
One ranked name, and he’s the 5th-best prospect in baseball. Hugh Duffy is 21 and slated as a WBL starter in a corner Portland can’t currently fill, which is convenient. Alongside him at Vancouver is Vladimir Guerrero, also 21, who came over in the Iván Rodríguez deal and is off the ranked list entirely — the kind of omission that either looks foolish in 2 years or explains itself. Fournier was a high draft pick, and should have a career, but he’s only 16 — child labor laws be damned.
▌ Superlatives
Most
Least
Age
Russ Springer, 38
Jack Fournier, 16
Height
Walt Bond, 6’7″
Nemo Leibold, 5’6″
OPS
Ernie Krueger, 1.059 (AAA)
Fred Dunlap, 0.500 (AA)
HR
Gil Hodges, 38
Gary Pettis, 1 (AA)
SB
Hughie Jennings, 45 (AAA)
–
WAR (bat)
Walt Bond, 3.9 (AAA)
Fred Dunlap, -1.8 (AA)
W
Walter Johnson, 13
–
SV
Harry Matuzak, 20 (AAA)
–
ERA
Joe H Coleman, 2.94 (A)
Kris Medlen, 6.60 (AAA)
WAR (pit)
Walter Johnson, 4.6
Kris Medlen, -1.0 (AAA)
Stats across all levels, 2001. 200 PA / 75 IP min (SV: all pitchers). Non-WBL levels tagged.
Just about the worst possible news: Frank Thomas tore a ligament in his knee and is out, hopefully to return before next year’s all star game. George Grantham was recalled, but this injury has profound implications for the American Giants’ off-season, especially given the trade of Paul Konerko.
#Los Angeles Angels
Ps Harry Howell, Luke Walker, and John Lackey were promoted to Los Angeles, along with Scott Rice, who wrapped up his rehab assignment. 3B David Wright was recalled from AAA as well.
Roy Patterson was named to the Angels’ rotation.
Freddie Freeman hit 2 out, giving him 4 since his late season acquisition, and the Angels came from behind to beat Memphis, 6-3. Another recent import, Gene Tenace, did the same, with 2 homeruns (the 2nd a walkoff grandslam) as Los Angeles again topped the Red Sox, this time, 7-4.
#Miami Cuban Giants
Miami will be without the services of Gary Sheffield for a couple of weeks as the Cuban Giants slugger strained his back in a loss to Portland. Sheffield heads to the DL with Kevin Kouzmanoff being recalled from AA (there were preferred targets at AAA, but with Orlando still in the playoffs, Kouzmanoff it is for the time being).
#Portland Sea Dogs
Hughie Jennings, who has been impressing of late, strained an abdominal muscle, earning a place on the 10 Day DL, prompting the recall of fan favorite Greg Litton from AAA.
Ken Griffey Jr. had 2 homeruns, 4 hits, and 5 RBIs, leading the Sea Dogs to a 13-6 romp over Miami. Buddy Belll added 2 homeruns of his own, and Kent Hrbek, Bobby Murcer, and the impressive newcomer Bobby Abreu also went deep for Portland.
Harry Matuzak–yet to give up a run across 4 bullpen appearances–will miss about a week, with Jack Wisner joining the Sea Dogs from AA.
#San Francisco Sea Lions
Jair Jurrjens was recalled from AAA, and both Lefty Grove and Frank Grant were recalled from rehab assignments.
Waite Hoyt was excellent in his first start for Chicago, blanking his old team 4-0. Hoyt combined with Herb Pennock and AJ Minter on the 5 hit shutout of the New York Black Yankees.
The American Giants recalled Rocky Colavito, Luke Appling, Freddie Lindstrom, and Michael McKenry along with pitchers Gavin Floyd, Joe Horlen, and Scott Radinsky. Ben Sheets was removed from the rotation as Chicago will use a committee approach at the end of their rotation.
Joe Jackson drove in 6 on 2 homeruns and 2 doubles and Eddie Collins added 4 hits of his own and scored 4 times as Chicago beat San Francisco 11-6. The offense continued to produce, this time with Frank Thomas driving in 6 and scoring 4 times in a 12-6 win over the Sea Lions. Collins again scored 4 times and McKenry went deep in his first WBL game in the victory.
#Los Angeles Angels
Mark Ellis was recalled from his rehab assignment and Nolan Ryan was recalled from AA.
#Miami Cuban Giants
Phenomenal Smith–who really was phenomenal last year in limited appearances–began a rehab assignment after a major injury.
Gary Sheffield and Jim Thome each had 2 dingers as the Cuban Giants edged Portland, 7-6.
#Portland Sea Dogs
Jeff Burroughs went deep twice, leading Portland to an 8-1 win over Memphis.
An error in the 9th opened the door for Joseíto Muñoz to face one more batter and, with that, he struck out his 15th batter of the night, setting a new WBL record. Muñoz got the win in the 8-2 triumph over Memphis, allowing 3 hits and walking 1. Gil Hodges had 3 hits and 5 RBIs for the Sea Dogs.
Walter Ball was recalled from his rehab assignment, replacing Jerry Koosman in the Sea Dogs’ rotation. Ps Harry Matuzak and Johan Santana–now fully committed to his long-term role as a starter–were recalled, along with Ernie Krueger, Miguel Sanó, Bobby Abreu, and Elvis Andrus.
Ken Griffey, Jr. hit 2 out, but Portland fell to Miami, 7-6.
#San Francisco Sea Lions
Lefty Grove will miss a couple starts, headed to the DL with a viral infection. The Sea Lions recalled Tim Hudson–out for many months–from a rehab assignment to see what the veteran has left in the tank.
Brian Downing hit his first 2 homeruns of the year, but the Sea Lions bullpen gave up the game in a 9-7 loss to Detroit. A few games later, Jack Clark also hit 2 out, giving him 42 on the year, but the Sea Lions fell to Chicago, 12-6.
Pretty hard question: nobody expected a playoff run last season, now the fans will demand a repeat, but if the Black Barons can’t address some core offensive issues, that may be unlikely.
Best Case
The pitching continues to dominate, Juan Rincón holds down the closer spot, and either Sam Streeter or Warren Spahn step up to seize the 5th starting spot. On the other side, Hank Aaron and Eddie Mathews move into the elite of the league and someone–anyone–steps up to support them.
Worst Case
The pitching falls apart, with Andy Pettitte and Alejandro Peña becoming solid, but no longer world-beaters and the bullpen collapses while the offense continues to be far too slapdash to be dependable.
Key Questions
How will some key pieces for last season–Pettitte, Rincón, Adrián González, Cupid Childs, Jim Pagliaroni–perform over the course of a full year.
With Andy Pettitte traded, how does the rotation respond and does Albert Belle perform at a level that makes it worthwhile.
Who will fill out the roster.
Trade Bait
The Black Barons would happily welcome an offensive star, but would have to mortgage their farm system to get one. Or, mortgage their best starter … which in a bit of a shock, is exactly what they ended up doing. It’s an interesting gambit: a true top of rotation star gone in exchange for a “win-now” bat (but Belle is aging) and a few arms for the future in Lefty Gomez and Frank Viola. We’ll see.
Roster Evaluation
POS
Elite
Strong
Solid
Meh
Weak
Unknown
C
Pagliaroni Tenace
1B
González
McCormick
Beckley
2B
Childs
3B
Mathews
SS
Long
Tulowitzki
LF/ RF
Aaron Belle
Nieman
Barbour Pafko
CF
Granderson
SP
Peña
Maddux Willis
Streeter
Malarkey
End
Bedrosian Rincón
RP
Benton Chen Young
Gomez Malloy Whitney
New Addition | Injured
Doesn’t look like a strong playoff contender to me. Now, if 3 to 4 players shift left one column … there’s just so much uncertainty. Six new faces, plus Belle, and while most of them are in reserve roles, it feels like a lot to ask for the Black Barons to repeat last year’s success.
Talent Ratings
WBL
Minors
Raw Power
3B Eddie Mathews
1B Nate Colbert
Batting Eye
3B Eddie Mathews
OF John Titus
Contact
OF Hank Aaron
3B Pie Traynor
Running Speed
SS Herman Long
OF Rajai Davis
Base Stealing
SS Herman Long
OF Rajai Davis
IF Defense
SS Herman Long
3B Pie Traynor
OF Defense
OF Andy Pafko
OF Billy Southworth
Stuff
SP Sam Streeter
RP Bill James
Control
SP Jim Whitney
RP Johnny Ryan
Velocity
RP Juan Rincón
RP Kerry Ligtenberg
Best In The Minors
Rank
Age
POS
Name
1 (32)
24
P
Jim Whitney
2 (36)
20
C
Joe Torre
3 (43)
20
U
Jess Barbour
4 (54)
20
2B
Trea Turner
5 (58)
25
OF
Curt Flood
6 (62)
21
P
Cozy Dolan
7 (63)
26
P
Rube Melton
8 (151)
22
P
Alex Malloy
9 (156)
19
2B
Marcus Giles
10 (173)
21
P
Jonathan Pettibone
Others: OF Melky Cabrera; P Steve Avery.
Whitney, Dolan, Malloy, and Barbour start the season in the WBL (Malloy on the DL, but still). This is very much a make or break year for Flood.
Most
Least
Age
OF Sam Rice, 37
SP Steve Avery, 18
Height
P Dustin Nippert, 6’8″
OF Al Schweitzer, 5’6″
OPS
OF Max Kepler, 1.233 (—)
IF Gerry Jestadt, .604 (—)
HR
OF Max Kepler, 61 (—)
IF George McBride, 1 (AAA) OF Rajai Davis, 1 (AAA/AA) OF Brock Davis 1 (AA)
SB
OF Billy Southworth, 26 (WBL/AAA)
Many with 0
WAR
1B Nate Colbert, 4.4 (WBL/AAA/AA)
IF Gerry Jestadt, -2.0 (—)
W
Bill Phyle, 17 (—)
Harry Matuzak, 1 (—)
SV
Juan Rincón, 26 (WBL)
ERA
Aaron Sanchez, 1.98 (—)
Johnny Ryan, 6.90 (AA)
WAR
Aaron Sanchez, 7.3 (—)
Fred Fussell, -0.8 (WBL/AAA)
Stats are across all levels. 200 PA / 75 IP min. Non WBL leagues indicated by —.
