Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Henry Rodríguez

Year III Season Preview: New York Gothams

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Gothams are the 3rd team in their own city, behind a Brooklyn club that just won it all and the rich/arrogant Yankees up the road. 2001 was a wake-up call — after winning 87 games, they plummeted to 75-87 and last in the Effa Manley Division, 24 games back.

The top of the roster is not the problem. Willie Mays hit 49 home runs at 24 and was worth 4.4 wins. Buster Posey hit 39 from behind the plate and was worth 4.2. Will Clark put up a .952 OPS, Johnny Callison hit 39 more, and all 4 are 24 to 29 years old.

The problem is … well … everything else. Shortstop gave New York 442 plate appearances of 221/268/381. Third base needed 7 different men before Jim Ray Hart claimed it in the 2nd half, and it’s not like he set the world on fire. Left field was a hole until Don Buford was bought at the deadline, and Jimmy Sheckard, a 4-WAR outfielder in 2000, hit .172 in the WBL and finished the year at Triple-A.

And the rotation wasn’t much better — Christy Mathewson keeps giving both ace potential and thoroughly average performances, and the bullpen — the pride of the club in 2000 — was showing its age. So the Gothams tore it all down (which may mean, panicked uncontrollably, or may mean made a smart investment in their future).

Juan Marichal, Robb Nen, Troy Percival and Steve Howe all went out at the deadline; then, in January, the Gothams sent Gaylord Perry — its own 2001 WAR leader — up the road to the Yankees for HR Johnson, Dave Righetti, a 1st-round pick and a 3rd. Johnson is an infielder, and may offer some long-sought-after stability there.

2001 Revisited

We asked for a deep playoff run, much like last year, and added a note about the Gothams’ habit of trading away all their damn picks. They went 75-87.

The worst case we sketched was that the bullpen falters, and only Matty remains viable as a starter while everyone not named Mays and Posey struggles offensively. That was close, and still too kind. The bullpen didn’t falter so much as get sold for parts. Mays and Posey did carry the offense. And Mathewson was the one who faltered.

Which is where 2001 gets strange. Mathewson went 7-16 with a 5.61 ERA, and he was the best pitcher on the staff: 210 innings, 207 strikeouts, 4.0 WAR at 22, a figure that actually rose from the year he led the league in wins. Don Sutton went 17-8 with a 5.23 and was worth 1.9. Same rotation, same season, 2 records that just add to the lack of internal clarity.

The best case wanted Perry or Marichal to step forward and join Mathewson among the league’s elite. Perry did have a decent year — a 1.13 WHIP across 211 innings, but went packing when the Black Yankees came knocking. Benny Kauff, who the preview wondered how they’d find at-bats for, found them, made the All-NL 2nd Team, and was traded in March.

A lot of churn. But it’s not clear the Gothams are any better.

Key Changes

In: Grant Johnson (NYY); Dale Murphy (KAN); Dave Righetti (NYY)

Out: Dellin Betances (FA); Benny Kauff (KAN); Tony Mullane (FA); Gaylord Perry (NYY); Robby Thompson (NYY)

Opening Day Rookies: Santiago Casilla; Dick Dietz; George Jeffcoat; Doggie Miller; Buck O’Brien; Vito Tamulis; Masahiro Tanaka

Best Case for 2002

The middle fills in. HR Johnson, 26, takes second base and hits the way he did in Houston; Hart holds third; Brandon Crawford finds enough of a bat to go with the glove, or somebody takes the job from him. That alone is worth several wins, because the 4 men at the top are already producing at a playoff standard.

Mathewson’s record catches up to his arm. Righetti, 24 and coming off a 2.5-WAR season in the Bronx, gives the rotation a 2nd real starter, and Pete Donohue — 22, a 3.61 across 120 innings at Triple-A and a NL 21 & Under Team pick — turns his September look into a rotation spot.

And the bullpen rebuilds itself from inside. Brian Wilson is still an elite closer when healthy, George Jeffcoat saved 32 games at Hartford, Santiago Casilla was untouchable there. So perhaps the identity returns.

Worst Case for 2002

Johnson is the latest name on a long list. New York has spent 3 years betting on the undervalued bat — Pinky Higgins, John Kerins, Matt Williams, Pete Runnels, Carl Furillo, Wes Westrum — and the bets keep landing in the same unremarkable middle. If Johnson doesn’t hit, the club will have sold its best pitcher to the richest team in its own city for another meh return.

Mathewson doesn’t take the step, Sutton’s ERA finally catches his record, and the rotation behind them is a 26-year-old with a 5.75 and a set of Triple-A arms. Dale Murphy hit .193 in Kansas City last year and is the insurance in center. Crawford keeps the shortstop job by default. A 75-win team wins 75 games again.

Key Questions

  • Does HR Johnson hit? He is 26, he plays the position New York has needed for 3 years, and he cost the club a pitcher who had just led it in WAR. Johnson produces and the trade is the cleverest thing the Gothams have done. Get him wrong and it is an all-too-familiar mistake.
  • Will the real Matty please stand up? He has now led the league in wins and, a year later, in losses, with his WAR going up in between. Read that again. At 22 with 207 strikeouts he has every ingredient of a front-line starter and a 5.61 to explain away. The org has never been sure whether it has an ace or a very good innings-eater. It would be nice to know.
  • Can the left side of the infield be fixed from inside? Shortstop and third combined for less production than most clubs get from a single player. Johnson will swing across these positions, but someone else needs to contribute here as well.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CPosey A · Dietz
1BClark B
2BJohnson · Doyle B
SSCrawford F
3BHart
LFBuford D · Sheckard
CFMays A · Murphy F
RFCallison C
DHDoyle B · Dietz
SPMathewson D · Sutton C · Hubbell F · Righetti · Donohue · Tanaka
RPWilson B (CL) · Norris B · Casilla · Tamulis · Tekulve · Jeffcoat

Dick Dietz was among the better backup bats in the league, which on most rosters is a luxury and on this one is a way to get a real hitter into a lineup that runs out of them by the 6th spot. And Mike Norris, 37 and the club’s Fan Favorite, is almost certainly taking his last lap — which may be cut off early, as age catches up with the 2000 Reliever of the Year in the WBL.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power2B HR JohnsonCF Dwayne Murphy
Batting EyeC Dick DietzCF Dwayne Murphy
ContactLF Tip O’NeillCF Fred M Lewis
Running SpeedCF Willie MaysCF George Van Haltren
Base StealingLF Jimmy Sheckard; 2B HR JohnsonSP Al Spalding; CF George Van Haltren
IF DefenseSS Brandon Crawford2B Whitey Wietelmann
OF DefenseCF Willie MaysRF Mike Tiernan
StuffRP Grant BalfourRP Henry Rodríguez
ControlSP Pete DonohueSP Al Spalding
VelocityRP Grant BalfourRP Derrick Turnbow

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (27)18SPAmos Rusie
2 (61)26CFDwayne Murphy
3 (76)23SPWilliam VanLandingham

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Masahiro Tanaka (77).

Others: IF Carlos Baerga, IF Alvin Davis, IF Howard Johnson, OF Tully Hartsel.

3 names on the ranked list, and the Gothams know exactly how it got that way — last year’s preview asked them to stop trading away all their damn picks, and they spent 2001 trading more of them. Amos Rusie is the exception and a real one: 18 years old and 27th in all of baseball.

Underneath, the system is infielders the club is hoping into relevance. Carlos Baerga, 19, came from Kansas City in the Kauff deal; Howard Johnson and Davey Johnson arrived from Homestead for Marichal and Nen. At least the January trade brought back picks instead of spending them.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeMike Norris, 37Amos Rusie, 18
HeightRon H Jackson, 6’7″Tully Hartsel, 5’5″
OPSWill Clark, .952Cliff Bolton, .534 (A)
HRWillie Mays, 49George Van Haltren, 0 (AA)
SBTim Shinnick, 72 (A)
WAR (bat)Willie Mays, 4.4George Van Haltren, −1.2 (AA)
WDon Sutton, 17
SVGeorge Jeffcoat, 32 (AAA)
ERAWillie Banks, 3.37 (A)Tully Sparks, 6.10 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Pete Donohue, 4.5 (AAA)Wandy Rodríguez, 0.3 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 56.12: Spring Training Notes – New York Gothams

Spring Training Questions

The offseason signing of Troy Percival means the pitching staff really only has 2 open slots, both likely to go to players that can serve as spot starters, with one of those likely to go to 6th round steal Masahiro Tanaka.

For the rest of the roster, it’s really the infield that has to be settled–whether Will Clark and Joe Adcock will exist in a platoon or some other arrangement and who the reserves will be.

Injuries

The Gothams received some bad news as stalwart reliever Carson Smith will miss most of the season with a torn muscle in his back.

First Cuts

Things are not going as planned: Juan Marichal, Don Sutton, Brian Wilson, Gaylord Perry, Steve Howe, and Robb Nen have all struggled early while most of the long shots to make the club have pitched quite well. Vean Gregg and Jordan Montgomery were both moved to minor league camp, but the Gothams are looking to the next week to help sort out their staff.

C Kirt Manwaring was moved out of camp, along with 1Bs Justin Morneau and (not that) Bill White and 3B Pinky Whitney. The corner spots need some clarity, as players the Gothams’ are depending on–Joe Adcock, Will Clark, and Pete Runnels–are all struggling. 3B Matt Williams remains in camp, but if he doesn’t shoe some of his power potential, he won’t be here very long.

Neifi Pérez and Larry Doyle have impressed, with Brian Dozier and David Eckstein both heading out.

In the OF, Fred Lewis, Jo-Jo Moore, John Reccius, and Kyle Tucker were all sent to the minors, with Steve Kemp and Mike Tiernan both making an argument to stick around a while longer.

Second Cuts

Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry are struggling, but will make the opening day roster no matter what. There were high hopes for Masahiro Tanaka, but he joins Vean Gregg and Jordan Montgomery in minor league camp.

The IF is still totally muddled. Youngsters Neifi Pérez and Freddie Patek and longshot Larry Doyle are all tearing the cover off the ball, and predicted starters Pinky Higgins and Pete Runnels are struggling mightily. Matt Williams was the odd man out here, being sent down just to clear some space despite a decent performance so far.

The OF is similar: AAA MVP Benny Kauff is demanding a rosters spot, but Steve Kemp and Ben Oglive are hitting well enough to make an argument, while presumed opening-day players Willie Mays, Johnny Callison, Wally Berger, and Jimmy Sheckard have all yet to find their stroke.

Third Cuts

Everyone in camp is pitching decently, except Juan Marichal, who gets a roster spot based on a decent season last year. So these cuts are rough: Luis Avilán, William VanLandingham, and Henry Rodríguez all pitched well enough to stick around, but it’s a numbers game at some point.

Dick Dietz, Mark Loretta and Ben Oglive were sent down.

SS is very cloudy. Freddie Patek and Neifi Pérez are playing very well, as is Brandon Crawford (who has to be considered the favorite).

Some good players are going to miss making the roster in the OF. Willie Mays, Johnny Callison, and Jimmy Sheckard are the starters, with George Van Haltren established as a backup. The problem is that Wally Berger, Benny Kauff, Carl Furillo, Steve Kemp, and Mike Tiernan are all hitting excellently. Kauff is probably the starting DH, but that still leaves 8 active OFers.

Last Cuts

These are nigh impossible. Pinky Higgins, Pete Runnels, and Will Clark are all struggling mightily, but their performance last season keeps them in camp and, indeed, probably keeps them in the starting lineup. That makes the Gothams’ first cut 1B Bill Terry.

Terry’s hope to make the WBL roster was to take Joe Adcock‘s spot but, for now, the 39 year old Adcock remains projected to play a key role of New York’s bench.

Newly acquired Dave Concepción will start the season at AAA, as will utility IF Johan Camargo, who had an outside shot at the opening day roster. They are joined by C Steve O’Neill, who was always a long shot to make the team.

The Gothams need to clear 5 roster spots to get to 30, a process started by placing closer Brian Wilson on the DL. Neifi Pérez had a good Spring, but Larry Doyle‘s was significantly better, sending Pérez down to AAA and handing the reserve 2B spot to Doyle. Joining them are SS Freddie Patek and OF Steve Kemp, as well as SP Al Spalding, who has to be wondering what more he needed to do after posting a sub 2.00 ERA for the Spring.

Guy Hecker and Pete Donohue were demoted and Mickey Welch released, but that only opened the door for the truly hard decisions.

George Van Haltren, Jimmy Sheckard, and Johnny Callison were all great for New York last season. None have an OPS over .600 this Spring. Wally Berger and Mike Tiernan were longshots to make the roster. And both have OPS’ over .890. Berger and Tiernan were sent down, but may find their way back quite quickly.

The final cut was veteran IF Larry Doyle, who had an excellent Spring, but was a victim of too much competition across the infield, and of Pete Runnels‘ fantastic contributions last year.

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