State of the Franchise
The Red Sox have never contended. They have always had bats; this off-season they’ve moved more aggressively than any other team in the WBL to address their rotation needs.
First, the bats: Ted Williams continues to sit barely outside the truly elite of the league, slashing 303/423/616 at 22. Manny Ramírez hit 46 home runs, Gabby Hartnett hit 41 from behind the plate, David Ortiz hit 34 in barely 100 games, Reggie Smith hit 34 more. And all of that on a team that lost 89 games.
There is a thin line between acting aggressively and panic. Memphis sold Mookie Betts, a breakout OF, to Brooklyn for Don Drysdale and Red Ruffing. Then it sold Dobie Moore — a 20-year-old shortstop who had just made the AL All Rookie 2nd Team, and the only real hope the middle infield has produced in years — to Los Angeles for Tom Seaver.
So the rotation now reads Stubby Overmire, Drysdale, Seaver, Ruffing and Len Barker. That’s a massive upgrade to the flailing of the past. The question is whether it will be enough.
2001 Revisited
A year ago we noted the growing optimism in Memphis, called it totally unwarranted. The Red Sox went 73-89 (worse than the prior year) and finished 5th, 17 games out.
The offense wasn’t the reason. Ramírez posted a 1.024 OPS and led the club in homers in only 452 plate appearances. Ortiz hit 280/371/676 and took first base away from Bill White. Williams turned in what will someday look like an off year and won the organizational MVP.
So that leaves the pitching as the culprit. The best case had Shane Bieber, the winter’s prize free agent, joining Stubby Overmire at the front of the rotation; Bieber made 8 starts, posted a 7.36 and blew out his elbow. Again. Jon Lester collapsed, and the rest of the SP auditions failed loudly (Eddie Cicotte, Nixey Callahan, we’re looking at you). Heath Bell finished in the mid 6s. Overmire remained the best arm Memphis had, and while he has his supporters, soft tossers are always in danger of regression. Still, a sub-5.00 ERA in the 2001 WBL remains impressive.
One prediction landed clean, but still could hurt. We asked whether Moore was the real thing and what would become of Vern Stephens if he was. Moore was real, Stephens was traded in July — and 6 months later Moore was traded too.
Key Changes
In: Xander Bogaerts (LAA); John Briggs (BRK); Don Drysdale (BRK); Red Ruffing (BRK); Tom Seaver (LAA)
Out: Mookie Betts (BRK); Billy Bryan (BRK); Bill Doak (FA); Dwight Evans (LAA); Dobie Moore (LAA)
Opening Day Rookies: Xander Bogaerts
Best Case for 2002
The new arms clear their 2001 lines. Drysdale is 22 and threw 186 innings with a 1.28 WHIP for Brooklyn; Seaver is 24 and struck out 135; Ruffing regains his prior form. I mean … this could be a solid rotation.
Behind that, the Red Sox just need health. Ramírez and Ortiz combined for about a season and a half of playing time; give them a full one each. John Briggs, bought in the spring off a 276/377/557 year in Brooklyn, is the sort of hitter scouts keep predicting will stop hitting and who keeps hitting — and if he does, the outfield rotation with Reggie Smith could prove pleasant, but complicated, especially with the somewhat surprising presence of Andrew Benintendi (343/450/572 at AA).
Skel Roach struck out 44 men in 40 innings while walking 40 of them. A little more control and they may have their closer.
Memphis doesn’t need a miracle here. It needs the pitchers it just bought to be roughly who they already are, one tick better.
Worst Case for 2002
Drysdale and Seaver both sat around league average last year — the WBL’s collective ERA was 5.38 — and around league average, while an improvement on Memphis’ history, is not what they thought they were buying.
The middle infield is … weak. Xander Bogaerts has never played a WBL game, Adam Everett is a decent glove, but nothing else. In the bullpen, Andrew Miller worked a league-leading 74 games and is the closest thing to a stopper, but that’s a heavy workload.
Skel Roach struck out 44 men in 40 innings while walking 40 of them. A little less control and they may have a walking disaster of unprecedented proportions.
Key Questions
- Can Tom Terrific justify his cost? A 5.81 ERA in Los Angeles is forgivable in that yard and that run environment, and it is also not what a franchise shortstop is supposed to buy. How Memphis feels in October runs almost entirely through whether the 24-year-old becomes a front-line starter.
- Who pitches the 9th? Memphis spent 2 losing seasons correctly selling relievers — Jonathan Papelbon went to Miami last August — on the sound theory that a team going nowhere shouldn’t hoard a closer. That logic has now expired. There are 3 arms the club trusts (or, in Roach’s case, tolerates) and no established one to finish games.
- What does the outfield surplus buy? 4 of the 6 ranked prospects in this system play the outfield, on a big-league club already carrying Williams, Smith, Briggs, Ramírez and Benintendi. That’s less a logjam than a bank account. Betts was the first withdrawal; the next one is yet to be determined.
Roster Evaluation
Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.
| Pos | Players |
|---|---|
| C | Hartnett B · Wilkins |
| 1B | Ortiz B |
| 2B | LeMahieu C · Pedroia |
| SS | Bogaerts · Everett |
| 3B | Boggs C · Shaw |
| LF | Williams A · Benintendi |
| CF | Smith C |
| RF | Briggs A |
| DH | Ramírez A |
| SP | Overmire C · Drysdale C · Seaver F · Ruffing · Barker D |
| RP | Miller B · Bell F · Roach C · Benitez · Fingers · de la Cruz |
Nobody in that bullpen carries the closer’s tag, which was a deliberate choice for 2 losing years and is, for the first time, a problem. Also, Ted Williams keeps asking to pitch. He talked his way into 3 innings in 2000 and gave up 3 runs, which appears to have settled nothing.
Talent Ratings
| WBL | Minors | |
|---|---|---|
| Raw Power | LF Ted Williams | CF Hack Wilson |
| Batting Eye | LF Ted Williams | CF Roy Thomas |
| Contact | 3B Wade Boggs | RF Bill Buckner |
| Running Speed | SS Herman Long | SS Bud Harrelson |
| Base Stealing | LF Andrew Benintendi | RF Tom Brown; LF Joe Kelley |
| IF Defense | SS Herman Long | 2B Jonathan Schoop |
| OF Defense | LF Andrew Benintendi | CF Dain Clay |
| Stuff | RP Heath Bell | RP Justin Miller |
| Control | SP Jameson Taillon | SP Carl Mays |
| Velocity | RP Heath Bell; RP Andrew Miller | RP Jensen Lewis |
Best In The Minors
| Rank | Age | Pos | Name |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (16) | 22 | LF | Joe Kelley |
| 2 (19) | 21 | SP | Josh Beckett |
| 3 (23) | 21 | LF | Carl Yastrzemski |
| 4 (39) | 24 | LF | Joe Rudi |
| 5 (70) | 22 | 1B | Joe Cunningham |
| 6 (81) | 21 | RF | Bill Buckner |
Others: P Mickey McDermott, OF Jim Rice, P Pete Richert, OF Roy Thomas.
6 ranked prospects, 4 of them outfielders, which is either an embarrassment of riches or an accounting problem depending on the day. Joe Kelley leads at 16th in baseball, Carl Yastrzemski sits 4 spots behind him, and Joe Rudi and Bill Buckner are behind them.
The most interesting name isn’t an outfielder. Josh Beckett, 21 and ranked 19th, arrived from Miami last August as the return for Papelbon. Below the ranked list, Pete Richert took the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and 17-year-old Mickey McDermott is the youngest arm in the system.
Superlatives
| Most | Least | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | Tim Wakefield, 37 | Mickey McDermott, 17 |
| Height | Derek Lowe, 6’6″ | Hack Wilson, 5’6″ |
| OPS | David Ortiz, 1.047 | Jason Bartlett, .567 (AA) |
| HR | Manny Ramírez, 46 | Dain Clay, 1 (A) |
| SB | Roy Thomas, 38 (A) | – |
| WAR (bat) | Joe Cunningham, 4.3 (AA) | Bud Harrelson, −0.9 (AA) |
| W | Stubby Overmire, 13 | – |
| SV | Andrew Miller, 6 | – |
| ERA | Bill Husted, 2.92 (A) | Red Ruffing, 6.90 |
| WAR (pit) | Stubby Overmire, 4.2 | David Bush, 0.5 |
Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.