Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Jim Rice

Year III Season Preview: Memphis Red Sox

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Red Sox have never contended. They have always had bats; this off-season they’ve moved more aggressively than any other team in the WBL to address their rotation needs.

First, the bats: Ted Williams continues to sit barely outside the truly elite of the league, slashing 303/423/616 at 22. Manny Ramírez hit 46 home runs, Gabby Hartnett hit 41 from behind the plate, David Ortiz hit 34 in barely 100 games, Reggie Smith hit 34 more. And all of that on a team that lost 89 games.

There is a thin line between acting aggressively and panic. Memphis sold Mookie Betts, a breakout OF, to Brooklyn for Don Drysdale and Red Ruffing. Then it sold Dobie Moore — a 20-year-old shortstop who had just made the AL All Rookie 2nd Team, and the only real hope the middle infield has produced in years — to Los Angeles for Tom Seaver.

So the rotation now reads Stubby Overmire, Drysdale, Seaver, Ruffing and Len Barker. That’s a massive upgrade to the flailing of the past. The question is whether it will be enough.

2001 Revisited

A year ago we noted the growing optimism in Memphis, called it totally unwarranted. The Red Sox went 73-89 (worse than the prior year) and finished 5th, 17 games out.

The offense wasn’t the reason. Ramírez posted a 1.024 OPS and led the club in homers in only 452 plate appearances. Ortiz hit 280/371/676 and took first base away from Bill White. Williams turned in what will someday look like an off year and won the organizational MVP.

So that leaves the pitching as the culprit. The best case had Shane Bieber, the winter’s prize free agent, joining Stubby Overmire at the front of the rotation; Bieber made 8 starts, posted a 7.36 and blew out his elbow. Again. Jon Lester collapsed, and the rest of the SP auditions failed loudly (Eddie Cicotte, Nixey Callahan, we’re looking at you). Heath Bell finished in the mid 6s. Overmire remained the best arm Memphis had, and while he has his supporters, soft tossers are always in danger of regression. Still, a sub-5.00 ERA in the 2001 WBL remains impressive.

One prediction landed clean, but still could hurt. We asked whether Moore was the real thing and what would become of Vern Stephens if he was. Moore was real, Stephens was traded in July — and 6 months later Moore was traded too.

Key Changes

In: Xander Bogaerts (LAA); John Briggs (BRK); Don Drysdale (BRK); Red Ruffing (BRK); Tom Seaver (LAA)

Out: Mookie Betts (BRK); Billy Bryan (BRK); Bill Doak (FA); Dwight Evans (LAA); Dobie Moore (LAA)

Opening Day Rookies: Xander Bogaerts

Best Case for 2002

The new arms clear their 2001 lines. Drysdale is 22 and threw 186 innings with a 1.28 WHIP for Brooklyn; Seaver is 24 and struck out 135; Ruffing regains his prior form. I mean … this could be a solid rotation.

Behind that, the Red Sox just need health. Ramírez and Ortiz combined for about a season and a half of playing time; give them a full one each. John Briggs, bought in the spring off a 276/377/557 year in Brooklyn, is the sort of hitter scouts keep predicting will stop hitting and who keeps hitting — and if he does, the outfield rotation with Reggie Smith could prove pleasant, but complicated, especially with the somewhat surprising presence of Andrew Benintendi (343/450/572 at AA).

Skel Roach struck out 44 men in 40 innings while walking 40 of them. A little more control and they may have their closer.

Memphis doesn’t need a miracle here. It needs the pitchers it just bought to be roughly who they already are, one tick better.

Worst Case for 2002

Drysdale and Seaver both sat around league average last year — the WBL’s collective ERA was 5.38 — and around league average, while an improvement on Memphis’ history, is not what they thought they were buying.

The middle infield is … weak. Xander Bogaerts has never played a WBL game, Adam Everett is a decent glove, but nothing else. In the bullpen, Andrew Miller worked a league-leading 74 games and is the closest thing to a stopper, but that’s a heavy workload.

Skel Roach struck out 44 men in 40 innings while walking 40 of them. A little less control and they may have a walking disaster of unprecedented proportions.

Key Questions

  • Can Tom Terrific justify his cost? A 5.81 ERA in Los Angeles is forgivable in that yard and that run environment, and it is also not what a franchise shortstop is supposed to buy. How Memphis feels in October runs almost entirely through whether the 24-year-old becomes a front-line starter.
  • Who pitches the 9th? Memphis spent 2 losing seasons correctly selling relievers — Jonathan Papelbon went to Miami last August — on the sound theory that a team going nowhere shouldn’t hoard a closer. That logic has now expired. There are 3 arms the club trusts (or, in Roach’s case, tolerates) and no established one to finish games.
  • What does the outfield surplus buy? 4 of the 6 ranked prospects in this system play the outfield, on a big-league club already carrying Williams, Smith, Briggs, Ramírez and Benintendi. That’s less a logjam than a bank account. Betts was the first withdrawal; the next one is yet to be determined.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CHartnett B · Wilkins
1BOrtiz B
2BLeMahieu C · Pedroia
SSBogaerts · Everett
3BBoggs C · Shaw
LFWilliams A · Benintendi
CFSmith C
RFBriggs A
DHRamírez A
SPOvermire C · Drysdale C · Seaver F · Ruffing · Barker D
RPMiller B · Bell F · Roach C · Benitez · Fingers · de la Cruz

Nobody in that bullpen carries the closer’s tag, which was a deliberate choice for 2 losing years and is, for the first time, a problem. Also, Ted Williams keeps asking to pitch. He talked his way into 3 innings in 2000 and gave up 3 runs, which appears to have settled nothing.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerLF Ted WilliamsCF Hack Wilson
Batting EyeLF Ted WilliamsCF Roy Thomas
Contact3B Wade BoggsRF Bill Buckner
Running SpeedSS Herman LongSS Bud Harrelson
Base StealingLF Andrew BenintendiRF Tom Brown; LF Joe Kelley
IF DefenseSS Herman Long2B Jonathan Schoop
OF DefenseLF Andrew BenintendiCF Dain Clay
StuffRP Heath BellRP Justin Miller
ControlSP Jameson TaillonSP Carl Mays
VelocityRP Heath Bell; RP Andrew MillerRP Jensen Lewis

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (16)22LFJoe Kelley
2 (19)21SPJosh Beckett
3 (23)21LFCarl Yastrzemski
4 (39)24LFJoe Rudi
5 (70)221BJoe Cunningham
6 (81)21RFBill Buckner

Others: P Mickey McDermott, OF Jim Rice, P Pete Richert, OF Roy Thomas.

6 ranked prospects, 4 of them outfielders, which is either an embarrassment of riches or an accounting problem depending on the day. Joe Kelley leads at 16th in baseball, Carl Yastrzemski sits 4 spots behind him, and Joe Rudi and Bill Buckner are behind them.

The most interesting name isn’t an outfielder. Josh Beckett, 21 and ranked 19th, arrived from Miami last August as the return for Papelbon. Below the ranked list, Pete Richert took the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and 17-year-old Mickey McDermott is the youngest arm in the system.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeTim Wakefield, 37Mickey McDermott, 17
HeightDerek Lowe, 6’6″Hack Wilson, 5’6″
OPSDavid Ortiz, 1.047Jason Bartlett, .567 (AA)
HRManny Ramírez, 46Dain Clay, 1 (A)
SBRoy Thomas, 38 (A)
WAR (bat)Joe Cunningham, 4.3 (AA)Bud Harrelson, −0.9 (AA)
WStubby Overmire, 13
SVAndrew Miller, 6
ERABill Husted, 2.92 (A)Red Ruffing, 6.90
WAR (pit)Stubby Overmire, 4.2David Bush, 0.5

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 95.3: The Rookie Draft

One of my favorite things each year. The WBL Rookie Draft is always a bit “juiced,” with both some high end talent and some historical “decent” players, but there is plenty of dross here as well in the later rounds.

We’ll cover the first 3 rounds pick-by-pick here, then rounds 4-10 team by team.

A reminder: each team can make 2 picks outside of players historically associated with their seed franchises; the rest (until the tail end of the draft) must come from players that spent a significant period of their career with them.

OOTP does its usual fun on whether these picks actually sign, so news on that will hit future TWIWBL’s.

We are moving towards the 2002 season, for reference. Debut is, of course, an estimate.

#Round 1

Note that Round 1 contained 2 compensation picks for picks from last year’s draft that refused to sign.

PickTeamPlayer & AgePosDebutNote
1.1MCGPedro Martínez (19)P2004Currently a reliever, his live arm warrants a move to the rotation at some point.
1.2MEMJim Rice (18)OF2005Joins a system stocked with young OF, so some trades loom at some point. But, saves an exception pick, which has some value.
1.3CAGZack Greinke (20)P2004Perhaps solves a need for arms; refused to sign last year.
1.4LAARod Carew (19)2B2005Incredibly weak IF system gets a significant boost. At some point, 1B gets crowded, but that’s a problem many years down the road.
1.5SFSJohn Smoltz (19)P2005The rich get richer.
1.6NYGAmos Rusie (18)P2002The best pitcher who looks WBL ready right now. Also a franchise pick.
1.7OTTJim McCormick (21)P2003A gamble, but OTT is desperate for SP.
1.8HOMDavid Cone (19)P2004Another franchise that needs rotation help.
1.9BALJose Altuve (17)2B2006One for the future, but potentially solves the position.
1.10HODJuan Soto (18)OF2004Honestly surprised he fell this far, Soto will cause some issues on the roster, but they’ll be well worth solving.
1.11KCMChris Carpenter (19)P2005More pitching needed, as always.
1.12MCGJack Glasscock (20)SS2004An interesting pick. First potential flop of the draft, but his arrival should coincide well with MCG’s needs as Robin Yount moves out of the middle infield.
1.13NYYGiancarlo Stanton (18)OF2005Not likely to stay with NYY due to a draft-day deal with NYG for Gaylord Perry. That’s dependent on Stanton signing, though.
1.14HODBingo DeMoss (21)2B2004A worthy successor to Ryne Sandberg.
1.15INDDave Winfield (21)OF2003A bit of a steal for the ABC’s.
1.16HODGeorge Zettlein (27)P2002Having used their exceptions, the HOD’s choices were quite limited. Here, they opted for some immediate help, hopefully.
1.17HOUEd Morris (20)P2003Houston will soon have an embarrassment of rotation riches–which should serve them quite well.
1.18PHIDarryl Strawberry (18)OF2003Another pick that will lead to a crowded roster, but Strawberry’s peak is too attractive to ignore.
1.19CLETodd Helton (22)1B2003A long-term solution to an aging position for the Spiders.
1.20PORJack Fournier (16)1B2006A big bat, but a long ways away.
1.21BRKBrett Butler (22)OF2004A safe pick, and perhaps overvalued here.
1.22SFSDick McBride (24)P2003More help on the mound for the Sea Lions.

#Round 2

PickTeamPlayer & AgePosDebutNote
2.1OTTRobbie Ray (20)P2004The peak is attractive.
2.2BBBYoenis Céspedes (27)OF2002Some immediate help for a somewhat crowded OF.
2.3CAGJosé Quintana (20)P2005More long term rotation help.
2.4LAACharlie Leibrandt (21)2B2005More pitching depth. Spot a pattern?
2.5HODPat Luby (20)P2004With their exceptions used up, the pool thins out quickly.
2.6LAAGarry Templeton (19)SS2005Templeton didn’t sign with HOU last year, he find himself in an organization more desperate for MI help this year.
2.7OTTBilly Jurges (21)SS2003Maybe a hedge against Álex Rodríguez’ eventual shift to 3B?
2.8CAGJosh Hader (19)P2005Eventual closer possibility for a team that should need it.
2.9KCMBill Sherdel (20)P2005A surprise pick. We’ll see.
2.10BBBRon Gant (18)SS2007BBB traded up to get Gant who, while a few years away, does project as a decent corner OF.
2.11KCMAllen Sothoron (20)P2005More pitching, constrained by franchise history.
2.12PORJosh Johnson (18)P2006Development needed, but decent upside.
2.13INDJohnny Allen (24)P2002A potential steal, as Allen could help this season.
2.14BALJouett Meekin (22)P2003Another intriguing selection–immediate help, if not a lot of extended value.
2.15HOUPaul Splittorf (22)P2004Decent mid-rotation talent.
2.16PORBob Groom (23)P2003More medium talent with potential near-term impact.
2.17CLETommy Corcoran (17)SS2006A pick for the future, but not a bad bet.
2.18HOUTommy Harper (20)OF2005HOU has an affection for these multi-position, roster extended options.
2.19BRKZane Smith (21)P2005Brooklyn believes deeply in stockpiling arms and letting them develop, Smith fits that profile.
2.20SFSJimmie Lyons (20)OF2003No room for him in SFS, but his talent is undeniable.

We’re quickly moving to less immediately impactful names, so we’ll do the rest of the draft as team summaries.

TeamRounds 1-2Rounds 3-12GradeGrade/ Notes
BALJose Altuve (2B), Jouett Meekin (P)Billy Lush (OF), Terry Crowley (1B), Herm Starrette (P), Levin Jones (OF), Eddy Rodríguez (P), Gosuke Katoh (1B), Earl Cook (P), Jerry Hinsley (P), Candy Sierra (P)CAltuve is great, but very young. Not a lot from the rest, although Crowley has some pop in his bat.
BBBYoenis Céspedes (OF)Steve Cishek (P), Ricardo Hernández (3B), Ed Hanyzewski (P), Grant Dayton (P), Lefty Wallace (P), Harry Hulihan (P), Zach Vincej (SS), Jake Smith (P), Dale Roberts (P), Kid Baldwin (C), Brandon Larson (3B)CHernández has some potential, but this is not a great draft, even if Céspedes comes good somewhat immediately.
BRKBrett Butler (OF), Zane Smith (P)Jerry Garvin (P), Lew McCarty (C), Mickey Hughes (P), Davis Daniel (P), Joe Evers (1B), Marvell Wynne (OF), Ed Albosta (P), Shaun Anderson (P)BA good job. Butler will have a WBL career, and both Smith and Garvin have live arms. Wynne may be a steal as well.
CAGZack Greinke (P), José Quintana (P), Josh Hader (P)Bob Priddy (P), Dominic Fletcher (OF), Mike Caruso (SS), Harry Clark (3B), Ross Gload (OF), Mem Lovett (1B), Rómulo Sánchez (P), Al Kellett (P), Hugh Canavan (P), Vaughn Eshelman (P)A-The first 3 picks are all excellent additions to a system starved for pitching. Not a lot else, although Caruso and Gload may have some potential.
CLETodd Helton (1B), Tommy Corcoran (SS)Julián Tavárez (P), Emil Levsen (P), Abraham Almonte (2B), Chauncey Fisher (P), Jerry Fahr (P), Cotton Knaupp (SS), Dalton Jones (2B), Juan Castillo (2B), Rabbit Benton (2B)B+Helton solves a long-term issue, the rest seems fine, with Tavárez being a decent pickup.
DETRiley Greene (OF), Kid Madden (P), Jakie May (P), Howie Krist (P), Nate Cornejo (P), Bill Barrett (C), Jess Pike (P), Ambrose McGann (2B), Bud Smith (P), Otto Jacobs (C), Jeter Downs (2B)CNo picks in the first 2 rounds hurts a lot, but Greene could be a steal for the Wolverines.
HODJuan Soto (OF), Bingo DeMoss (2B), George Zettlein (P), Pat Luby (P), Ron Gant (SS)Terry Larkin (P), Vern Olsen (P), Billy Holland (SS/P), Elmer Yoter (3B), Steven Hill (C), Harry East (3B), Lev Shreve (P), Phonney Martin (OF)ACould be transformational. Soto is a generational talent, DeMoss a clear succession plan for Ryne Sandberg, and even Holland has some intriguing potential as a 2-way player.
HOMDavid Cone (P)Cliff Chambers (P), Bob Walk (P), Jimmy Ripple (OF), Red Witt (P), Jeff Wallace (P), Harry Jordan (P), Bill Hallman (OF), Larry Ciaffone (OF), Jaycob Brugman (OF), Jeff Doyle (2B)BCone is a great pick, but there’s not a lot else here.
HOUEd Morris (P), Paul Splittorff (P), Tommy Harper (2B)Lou Piniella (OF), Ken Suarez (C), Jim Wohlford (SS), José Cisnero (P), Mike Hedlund (P), Clint Hurdle (C), Danny Bautista (OF), Rance Pless (1B), Bob Friedrichs (P), Ricky Gutiérrez (SS), Mauro Zárate (P), Rod Gilbreath (3B), Gene Moriarity (OF)B+Could be higher, depending on how Morris develops. Lots of potentially useful marginal pieces in later rounds–Piniella, Hurdle, Gutiérrez.
INDDave Winfield (OF), Johnny Allen (P)Gary Redus (OF), Tex McDonald (SS), Dusty Miller (OF), Billy McCool (P), Chub Sullivan (1B), Tom Wiedenbauer (OF), Jackson Tetreault (P), Logan Allen (P), Mike Champion (2B)AWinfield being available was shocking. Allen and Redus being added makes the draft a surprising success.
KCMChris Carpenter (P), Bill Sherdel (P), Allen Sothoron (P)Casey Kotchman (1B), Tex Pruiett (P), Fred Holdsworth (P), Gerónimo Peña (2B), Otto Schomberg (1B), Wish Egan (P), Pete Naton (C), Tom Donohue (C), Harley Dillinger (P)CWeird. Lots of franchise picks, but not a ton of actual value behind Carpenter.
LAARod Carew (2B), Charlie Leibrandt (P), Garry Templeton (SS)Steve Henderson (OF), Jack DiLauro (P), Mike Trost (C), Dennis Ribant (P), Lou Pote (P), Zach Lutz (3B), Dave Pierson (C), Doc Land (OF), Rubén Quevedo (P), Francisco Peña (c)B+Sure. Carew fills an obvious need, as does Templeton.
MEMJim Rice (OF)Sam Jethroe (OF), Joe Hornung (OF), John Healy (P), Hal Rhyne (SS), Joe Ellick (3B), Joe Cicero (OF), Jerry Mallett (OF), Iván Cruz (1B), Sam Childs (1B), Tony Balsamo (P), Harry Smith (2B)BAnother young OF? Really, Memphis? And after that, adding Jethroe to Rice? There better be some trades a-coming.
MCGPedro Martínez (P), Jack Glasscock (SS)Jesús Lazardo (P), Bobby Vaughn (2B), Erasmo Ramírez (P), Jing Johnson (P), Billy Redmon (SS), Scott Olsen (P), Steven Ames (P), Mario Ramírez (SS), Francis Martes (P), George Milstead (P)AAny draft that gets you Martínez is an A. But … Glasscock may be an overreach.
NYGAmos Rusie (P)Red Murray (OF), Dave Veres (P), Harry McCormick (P), Alvin Davis (1B), Kiko Calero (P), Frank West (P), Luis Castillo (P), Héctor Sánchez (C), Andy Rincon (P), Ed Wilkinson (OF), William Coon (OF), Kevin Collins (3B)CLove me some Rusie, and he’ll help right away … but the rest … Veres and Calero fit with the Gothams’ bullpen obsession.
NYYGiancarlo Stanton (OF)John Kruk (1B), Rich Coggins (OF), John Shaffer (P), Frank Gilhooley (OF), John Ryan Murphy (C), Dutch Rudolph (OF), Marcus Wilson (OF), Darrell Johnson (C), Roy Witherup (P), Mike Shea (P)DStanton is headed out of town, making this a much weaker draft, even if Kruk looks like a solid bat. Still, the Black Yankees never have cared about the draft, so perhaps that’s unfair: if Perry brings them a championship, they’ll see this as a great draft, no matter what Stanton does.
OTTJim McCormick (P), Robbie Ray (P), Billy Jurges (SS)Al Woods (OF), Jesse Carlson (P), Wilton Guerrero (2B), Ed Atkinson (OF), Dane Myers (OF), Bill Collver (OF), Orlando Mercado (C), Emanuel Snyder (OF)CMaybe? They need arms, so maybe?
PHIDarryl Strawberry (OF)Harry Eisenstat (P), Andy Hansen (P), Ben Tincup (P), Jack Scheible(P), Pat Bohen (P), Doc Amole (P), Ben Froehlich (C), John Peters (OF), Fred Buckingham (P), Andy Sommerville (P), Joe Schultz (C), Travis Swaggerty (OF)C-The Strawberry pick makes total sense. The rest … not so much.
PORJack Fournier (1B), Josh Johnson (P), Bob Groom (P)Steve Brye (OF), Rich Reese (1B), David Hulse (OF), Joe Gedeon (OF), Kyle Garlick (OF), Carlos Pascual (P), Moe Berg (SS), Bill Sarni (C), Terry Humphrey (C), Jesús Montero (C), Babe Ellison (1B)CTalk about looking to the future … Fournier has a future, but he’s 16. And the run on catchers at the end is just downright odd.
SFSJohn Smoltz (P), Dick McBride (P), Jimmie Lyons (OF)Joe Dunand (2B), Kevin Kobel (P), Nate Mondou (2B), Hank Hulvey (P), Bert Kuczynski (P), Jerar Encarnación (OF), Greg Aquino (P), Dorn Taylor (P), Art Smith (P)AI mean … how did they do this? Smoltz is a rotation arm, Lyons has immense talent.

TWIWBL 93.2: THE ROOKIE DRAFT, Year 2 – The Preview

This year, the Rookie Draft will be 8 rounds in length. The natural draft pool has been enhanced with a handful of top 1000 career and single season performers by WAR, as well as a few entries from i9s.

Each team may make 2 “free” picks, meaning they can select anyone in the draft. For the rest of their selections, they are limited to players historically attached (meaning, a significant amount of their playing time) to their franchises. Once they’ve made 8 picks (2 free and 6 franchise), these restrictions are lifted, although preference is still given to franchise appropriate selections.

Here are the teams, listed in the draft order, and their number of picks per round in the draft:

Team12345678Tot
POR1212111110
MEM12211119
CAG1231119
LAA12121119
BBB1211218
NYG1411119
OTT12111118
HOM1211117
BAL11111117
HOD312111110
KCM12111118
MCG213118
IND11111117
DET2111117
HOU1222111111
PHI12111118
CLE11111117
NYY1211117
BRK1111116
SFS21111118
NYY and HOD have additional 1st round picks due to FA losses; HOU has an additional 3rd round pick.

A few things jump out from that:

  • There’s a little bit of the rich getting richer with San Francisco’s 2 1st rounders and Houston’s draft-leading 11 total picks.
  • The House of David are in probably the best position, with 6 picks in the first 3 rounds.
  • Brooklyn, Detroit, and Homestead need to draft well to maximize challenging positions, either in total number of picks or their distribution.

Here’s how the AI sees the top twenty prospects, along with the franchises that are eligible to draft them without expending one of their “free” picks.

#NamePosAgeFranchises
1Rod Carew2B19LAA, POR
2Ed MorrisLHP20HOM
3Jim RiceCF18MEM
4Amos RusieRHP18NYG
5Darryl StrawberryCF18LAA
6Jim McCormickRHP21CLE, HOD
7Jack GlasscockSS20CLE, IND, KCM, NYG
8Tommy Harper2B20IND, OTT, MEM
9Ben TincupRHP20PHI
10Bingo DeMoss2B21CAG, HOD, IND
11Joe HornungOF20MEM
12Brett ButlerRF22BRK, CLE, NYG
13Jimmy RippleCF25NYG
14John HealyRHP23
15Pedro MartínezRHP19MEM, OTT, LAA
16Bob GroomRHP23POR, BAL
17Steve HendersonLF23LAA
18Otto Schomberg1B21
19Giancarlo StantonOF18MCG, NYY
20George ZettleinRHP27CAG, PHI

That is, of course, a really odd list in places (Jimmy Ripple, anyone?). So here are the next 15, in no particular order and according to me.

#NamePosAgeFranchises
1Jack Fournier1B16CAG, BRK, KCM
2Todd Helton1B22HOU
3John SmoltzRHP19BBB
4Juan SotoRF18POR, HOU, NYY, LAA
5Chris CarpenterRHP19KCM, OTT
6Ron GantSS18BBB, KCM
7Zack GreinkeRHP20HOU, BRK
8Charlie LeibrandtLHP21HOU, BBB
9David ConeRHP19LAA, NYY, HOU, OTT
10Josh JohnsonRHP18MCG
11Robbie RayLHP20HOU, OTT
12Garry TempletonSS19HOU, KCM
13Josh HaderLHP19MCG
14Jimmie LyonsLF20CAG, HOD, IND, KCM
15Johnny AllenRHP24CLE, NYY

TWIWBL 92.4: Off Season Review – Miami Cuban Giants

80 - 83, .491 pct.
2nd in Cum Posey Division, 23.5 GB

Overall

This was a surprising season for Miami–most pundits thought they were several years away from contention, so being in the race for a playoff spot into the last week of the season was quite the shock.

It’s not even so clear how the Cuban Giants did it: turns out a lot of homeruns, some strikeout pitchers, and some solid defense will win a few games. Miami still finished under .500, so it’s not like they’re about to contend for the championship, but still … it was a significant step forward.

There are some pieces here, but unless the pitching staff comes around, the nearly .500 finish is probably the best predictor of the future. So some moves may be made.

What Went Right

José Canseco‘s power is a thing to behold, demonstrated by 68 homeruns and 124 RBIs this year. A few dozen more hits would move him into the truly elite outfielders, but even without that, his 1.062 OPS make him a franchise cornerstone.

That said, it’s not like Jim Thome or Yasiel Puig are far behind. Puig’s 298/388/658 performance occurred in 100 games, so there are still some questions about his ability to perform next season, but Thome looked every bit the star, finishing the year with a 1.034 OPS, 59 homeruns, and 122 RBIs.

Julio Rodríguez was a surprise starter coming out of Spring Training and he delivered in the biggest of ways: 315/347/661 with 42 homeruns.

Gary Sheffield has a shot at being an offensive force, with 42 homeruns in what the team hopes is a sign of things to come.

Iván Rodríguez is one of the best young catchers in the league, managing an .840 OPS with elite defense as a 21 year old.

Joe Adcock, Al Oliver, and Andy Pafko were all remarkably effective as part-time contributors. At 40, Adcock may be just about done, but Oliver and Pafko certainly factor into the Cuban Giants’ plans next season.

At only 21, Alejandro Oms led the team with a .308 average while playing spectacular defense.

Robin Yount had an OPS over .800 at SS, and is just entering his prime.

And then there’s Martín Dihigo. Perhaps the worst offensively performing regular in the league last season, Dihigo slugged a still-not-great 246/291/429, but the increase in power is a great sign for Miami. Add to that Dihigo’s ability to play Gold Glove level defense at virtually every position, and the Cuban Giants have a fairly unique talent.

José Méndez is establishing himself as a WBL ace. This year, he went 13-6 with a 4.53 ERA over 37 starts, so most definitely a workhorse, with a chance at elite status.

But Méndez may not be the best starter on the staff: that honor may go to midseason acquisition Jim Whitney, who finished the year with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 200 innings.

Beyond that, though, the starters were not good. That’s not quite true–Hugh McQuillan was solid in 10 starts and Phenomenal Smith was, um, yes, that, in 5. But the rest … well, see below.

Ricky Nolasco was fine as the closer, finishing the year with 26 saves. The Cuban Giants obtained Jonathan Papelbon towards the end of the season, giving them excellent options at the end of the bullpen.

ALL STARS

José Canseco
Gary Sheffield
MAJOR AWARDS

José Méndez, All AL Team
Iván Rodríguez, AL C Gold Glove
Jim Thome, All AL Team
Jim Whitney, All AL Team
RECOGNITIONS

Martín Dihigo, AL 21 & Under Team
Kenshin Kawakami, AL All Rookie 2nd Team
José Méndez, AL Brock Rutherford Award 3rd Place; AL 25 & Under Team; AL 23 & Under Team
Alejandro Oms, AL 21 & Under Team
Andy Pafko, AL All Rookie Team
Jonathan Papelbon, All AL 3rd Team; AL Over 30 Team
Yasiel Puig, All AL 3rd Team
Iván Rodríguez, AL 23 & Under Team; AL 21 & Under Team
Julio Rodríguez, AL All Rookie 2nd Team
Jim Whitney, AL All Rookie Team; AL 25 & Under Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

José Canseco, MVP
José Méndez, Pitcher of the Year
Alejandro Oms, Heart & Soul
Yasiel Puig, Fan Favorite

Lefty George, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Bob Loane, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Cookie Rojas couldn’t get his OPS over .700, making him one of the weakest regulars in the league by WAR and likely moving him to a utility role next season.

Eustaquio Pedroso hit even worse than Rojas, eventually abandoning his role as a 2-way player.

Smoky Burgess, a key bat off the bench last year, slashed 226/304/315, and may have played himself to AAA.

Most of the starters were not good, with Cole Hamels and, notably, Ramón Martínez being especially weak despite a ton of opportunities. But Steven Wright, Freddie Fitzsimmons, and Camilo Pascual were all horrid in at least 5 starts (Pascual, it must be said, made only 5 starts before a severe knee injury sidelined him–he should be back in the Spring).

Barry Latman and Ed Brandt were pretty bad from the bullpen, and the rest of the contenders–most notably Pedroso and Braden Looper–barely any better. Middle relief is an area of strong concern going into next season.

Transactions

March

IF Paul Molitor, OF Vladimir Guerrero, C Alan Ashby & 2nd Round Pick to POR for C Iván Rodríguez, P Jon Matlack, OF Adolis García, OF Al Oliver, 1st Round Pick & 4th Round Pick.

A huge deal, but looks pretty good quite honestly. Pudge is a great young talent, Oliver was useful at the WBL this year, Matlack has a future, plus the 2 picks … yes, Guerrero looks like a franchise outfielder, but that’s a pretty good deal imo.

July

OF Ryan Braun, IF Richie Sexson & 7th Round Pick to BBB for P Jim Whitney, OF Andy Pafko, OF José Cruz & 2nd Round Pick.

Looks good. Sure Braun is a solid talent, but power hitting corner OFers, even at his level, are less rare than possible aces, which Whitney sure looks like. Add in Pafko and the pick, and I like this for Miami.

August

P Josh Beckett, OF Roy Thomas & 3rd Round Pick to MEM for P Jonathan Papelbon & 4th Round Pick

This one looks fine now, but I suspect Miami may regret it once Beckett (and perhaps Thomas) are in the WBL full time.

Positional Overview

C

Pudge has this locked up.

Smoky Burgess and Chris Hoiles will likely compete for the backup role in the Spring.

1B

As long as Jim Thome‘s power holds out, his low average is fine.

It’s not clear who backs him up–a lot of people can play first if needs be, and Joe Adcock, at 40, may not hold onto his roster spot. Steve Balboni probably has the most power in the system, but his swing has some pretty big holes in it as well.

This is a position where Minnie Miñoso, the eternal prospect, may contribute as well.

2B

This is Dihigo’s primary position, with Cookie Rojas looking good as his backup. But Rojas was so poor this system, the door is open for Bert Campaneris, Nellie Fox, or Tito Fuentes to make some noise in the Spring.

Clete Boyer is the same age as Dihigo, but is a more usual prospect, and at 19 is probably still in need of a season or 4 in the minors.

SS

Robin Yount all day. Zoilo Versalles has some talent, and Alexei Ramírez seems to have some strong defensive talent, but this is Yount for now.

3B

Another position that moved from unknown to settled, with Gary Sheffield likely to get a lot of play here. Sheffield isn’t great with the glove–and in fact may be better suited for an OF role–so Miami is looking at options, with Russell Branyan, Willie Kamm, and Kevin Kouzmanoff being the primary short term options.

Carlos Morán may be a year away, but he is the most likely choice for Sheffield’s eventual successor.

LF/RF

There are a lot of options here, but it looks like Alejandro Oms and Yasiel Puig will see most of the time, with José Canseco getting some games as well. But Al Oliver and Andy Pafko had excellent seasons, and Jason Bay and Minnie Miñoso are waiting in the wings.

CF

J-Rod just never stopped performing, and the job is now his. Oliver will play here, as will Pafko, and there is some talent in the system, most notably in the form of José Cardenal and Marquis Grissom.

DH

José Canseco most days, with most everyone else filling in occasionally.

SP

Jim Whitney and José Méndez are a great top 2 to build around, but there are a ton of question marks beyond them. The next 2 slots are likely to go to Phenomenal Smith and Camilo Pascual, with Smith yet to complete a full season and Pascual trying to come back from knee surgery.

And then we have Cole Hamels, who hasn’t done much over 2 seasons; Kenshin Kawakami, who pitched well before getting injured; Ramón Martínez, who is looking to bounce back from a horrible season; plus a handful of prospects (Jason Hammel, Ed Whitson, Lefty George, Hugh McQuillan, Freddie Fitzsimmons, and a few more).

RP

Papelbon becomes the closer, with Nolasco sliding into a setup role (with some even arguing he try his hand in the rotation). Braden Looper will help out here, as will whomever doesn’t make the rotation.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 2
2nd Round: 1
3rd Round: 0
4th Round: 3
5th Round: 0

Always nice to have the overall #1 pick. Given the state of pitching, look for Miami to lean towards Amos Rusie or Pedro Martinez, but the overall skill of Rod Carew and the sheer power of Jim Rice are both pretty enticing.

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