State of the Franchise

The first House of David preview, 3 years ago, said there was a lot of talent here and the club was a year or 2 away. That is still, more or less, the pitch for the South Side travellers.

The bats are not (and never have been) the problem. Ernie Banks hit 59 home runs from shortstop last year, Ryne Sandberg hit 42 more at 33, and Anthony Rizzo claimed first base with a 287/391/594 season that was the most complete offensive year on the club. Behind them the org has bats stacked in the places bats are easiest to find — 4 first basemen on the roster, 2 catchers, and a Triple-A club that opens the season with Tony Conigliaro (7 homers in 24 WBL games last September), Jim Edmonds and Mark Grace (a 1.008 OPS) on it, because there is nowhere to put them.

The problem is the mound, and it has been for a year. Jack Taylor, who was an ace in 2000, gave back 192 innings of 5.90 ball. Bob Rush won a Gold Glove and posted a 5.28. Fergie Jenkins struck out 131 in 132 innings and finished with a 6.55. Nobody was good except a 22-year-old nobody expected (Kyle Peterson, more below).

So the season leans on Brett Anderson, 23 and acquired from Los Angeles in March for Richie Hebner — 189 innings, 172 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP for the Angels last year, and the closest thing to a front-line arm this org has had since Taylor. He doesn’t have to be an ace here, he just has to offer some stability to a beleaguered, revolving door of a rotation.

2001 Revisited

We asked for one thing: a repeat of last year’s playoff contention, at a minimum. The House of David went 78-84 and finished 4th, 7 games out, which is 5 games worse than the year before.

Ouch.

The odd part is how thoroughly both halves of the forecast missed. The best case had 4 clauses — repeat years from Taylor and Rush, a healthy Pete Browning, Elrod Hendricks not backsliding, the outfield sorting itself out — and 4 of 4 came up empty. Browning spent more time on the DL than on the field (again). Hendricks won a Gold Glove (the bleachers cheer!) and hit 195/291/416 (the bleachers fall silent, reluctant as they are to boo the hometown heroes). The outfield is no more settled today than it was then.

Meanwhile the worst case named Hebner, Ron Santo and Banks as the marginal men who might not step forward, and warned that Rizzo would regress. Banks put up a .968 OPS with 126 RBIs and won the organizational MVP. Hebner slashed 284/373/594 and pushed his way into more playing time all season. Rizzo broke out.

Where it did come true was the arm the preview never mentioned. Peterson went 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP across 17 starts and took the organizational Pitcher of the Year — the one thing that went right on a staff where everything else went wrong.

And there was Sammy Sosa, traded away in a slump in 2000 and bought back a year later off a 144-plate-appearance hot streak at Memphis. He hit 195/240/478 with 41 homers, walked almost never, and was worth nearly 2 wins below replacement. 41 homeruns (the bleachers cheer!). A negative WAR (the bleachers shrug and reach for their beer). Our own review of the deal put it more concisely: this feels like being robbed.

Key Changes

In: Brett Anderson (LAA); Dellin Betances (FA)
Out: Richie Hebner (LAA); Billy Herman (FA); CC Sabathia (MCG)

Opening Day Rookies: None

Best Case for 2002

Anderson is what his strikeout rate says he is, Taylor remembers 2000, and Peterson holds. Behind them Rick Reuschel keeps being the most valuable arm on the staff — he led all House of David pitchers in WAR last year out of a swing role — and Jenkins, who owns the best raw stuff in the organization, finally delivers on it.

The lineup does what it already does, with health. Browning plays 140 games, George Gore and his .389 on-base get a full season instead of half of one, Santo takes the step a 22-year-old with 29 homers is entitled to, and one of the Triple-A bats forces the issue.

In a weak division, that’s enough. Or, could be enough.

Worst Case for 2002

Peterson’s rookie year came with 63 strikeouts in 107 innings, which is the profile that tends to regress. Anderson’s move doesn’t take. Taylor is what he was last year rather than what he was in 2000, and the rotation is a committee with nobody up front for a 2nd straight season.

And the roster’s thin construction hurts. Craig Reynolds is going to get a lot of PA, backing up both Sandberg and Banks, and he doesn’t look like a WBL bat. If Banks slides, Sandberg ages, and Sosa keeps being a muscled bundle of empty power, the bombs will keep landing in the street behind the bleachers, and the club will keep losing 8-5.

Key Questions

• Where does the first arm come from? This staff has no settled answer to who starts opening day and why. Taylor has the pedigree and a 5.90; Peterson has the results and a strikeout rate that argues with them; Anderson has the peripherals and a 4.34 ERA; Jenkins has, by some distance, the best raw arm in the org and a track record that has never once matched it.
• Does anybody here get on base? Banks reached at .314, Sosa at .240, Hendricks at .291, Santo at .311. Frank Chance ran 43 steals out of a .322 on-base built on a .214 average, which is its own kind of achievement. The 2 genuinely patient bats — Rizzo at .391 and Gore at .389 — are the least celebrated men in the lineup, which tells you something about a fanbase that came for the 450-foot shot and is not going to be talked out of it.
• What happens if a middle infielder goes down? Sandberg at 33 and Banks at 26 are the 2 best players on the team and they play the 2 positions with nothing behind them. Heliodoro Hidalgo, the 7th-ranked prospect in baseball, is a year away at Triple-A. This is the one hole on the roster that cannot be covered from what’s already in the building.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

Pos	Players
C	Hendricks D · Chance
1B	Rizzo B · Anson
2B	Sandberg A
SS	Banks S · Reynolds
3B	Santo C
LF	Stone C
CF	Gore C · Browning
RF	Sosa F
DH	McGwire · Beckwith
SP	Taylor D · Anderson B · Peterson B · Reuschel D · Rush D · Jenkins · Clinton (IL)
RP	Spooner B · Bauta D · Betances · Key · Shaw · Downs

John Beckwith is 20 and broke camp on a WBL roster having hit 4 home runs in a full Double-A season — the ceiling is enormous and the track record is a rumor. And Frank Chance is a catcher who stole 43 bases, which is not a sentence that gets written often; he is also the club’s answer against left-handed pitching and its leadoff man, at a position where the incumbent just won a Gold Glove.

Talent Ratings

	WBL	Minors
Raw Power	1B John Beckwith	SP Jocko Flynn
Batting Eye	1B Mark McGwire	RF Olaf Henriksen
Contact	CF Pete Browning	1B Mark Grace
Running Speed	RF Sammy Sosa	RF Will Venable
Base Stealing	CF Pete Browning	SP George Zettlein; 2B Bingo DeMoss
IF Defense	2B Ryne Sandberg	3B Dave Malarcher; 2B Heliodoro Hidalgo
OF Defense	CF George Gore; RF Sammy Sosa	LF Sam Fuld
Stuff	RP Dellin Betances	SP Kerry Wood
Control	SP Jack W. Taylor	RP Tom Dukes; SP George Zettlein
Velocity	RP Dellin Betances	SP Kerry Wood

Best In The Minors

Rank	Age	Pos	Name
1 (7)	20	2B	Heliodoro Hidalgo
2 (15)	21	SP	Jocko Flynn
3 (37)	24	CF	Danny Green
4 (43)	21	2B	Bingo DeMoss
5 (98)	21	LF	Cody Bellinger

Others: P Larry Dierker, 1B Mark Grace, P Jon Matlack, P Joe Nuxhall.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Cap Anson (12).

A year ago this list was 10 deep and led by Frank Grant, the 2nd-ranked prospect in baseball — a second baseman, traded to San Francisco in July for John Beckwith. Karl Spooner and Peterson graduated onto the staff, Anson onto the roster, and Dave Malarcher slid off the board entirely. What replaced them is, pointedly, middle infield: Hidalgo came from Kansas City in the Lee Smith deadline sale and ranks 7th in all of baseball, with Bingo DeMoss drafted to fill the need (it’s not clear where Hidalgo ends up defensively).

Underneath, the system is teenage arms and one very stuck bat. Jon Matlack is 19; Joe Nuxhall is 17 and Larry Dierker 19. And Mark Grace put up a 1.008 OPS at Triple-A at 28, but seems destined to a AAAA label or a change of scenery.

Superlatives

	Most	Least
Age	Skeeter Barnes, 35	Joe Nuxhall, 17
Height	Dellin Betances, 6’7″	Bunny Downs, 5’5″
OPS	Mark Grace, 1.008 (AAA)	Darren Daulton, .437 (A)
HR	Ernie Banks, 59	José Uribe, 1 (AA)
SB	Frank Chance, 43	–
WAR (bat)	Ryne Sandberg, 3.7	Sammy Sosa, −1.9
W	Kyle Peterson, 15	–
SV	Ad Gumbert, 10 (AA)	–
ERA	Larry Dierker, 1.78 (A)	Larry Jackson, 6.61
WAR (pit)	Kyle Peterson, 4.9	Larry Jackson, 0.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.