State of the Franchise

Ask Detroit and they’ll tell you, without blinking, that the Wolverines are the real class of the Bill James Division — and that nobody outside the Motor City gives them a lick of credit. This is a club that went to Game 7 of the 2000 Whirled Series, owns the best player alive, and has made the playoffs in both years of the league’s existence. Of course, it is also a club that has finished a game under .500 and has never won the division, because the same thing keeps happening: the offense is a fireworks show, the pitching a house fire.

The window here isn’t measured in years. It’s measured in Ty Cobb, 22 years old and the best player on the planet, and every decision bends toward getting the most out of the time they have with him. Hank Greenberg (25) and Al Kaline (22) fill out a young, ferocious core, and Hal Newhouser (22) is the live arm they hope comes good. Greenberg looks content in Cobb’s enormous shadow. Kaline — a .957-OPS force in his own right — is the one to watch, the second star who may, in time, want a little light of his own.

Detroit believes in the box score: home runs, RBI, wins and losses, and their front office will tell you to take your fancy-ass WAR and shove it. Unless, of course, you’re referring to Cobb’s 9.3 watermark last season. That they believe in. The creed has built a genuinely fearsome lineup and, year after year, the wrong pitching staff.

Two seasons in, 2002 is less a campaign than an audition: find a dependable rotation — hell, even half a dependable rotation — or watch the Cobb clock start forcing hard choices.

2001 Revisited

We sold you a very well-balanced team last spring, a championship contender, with only some fussing about an aging supporting cast and a shaky middle infield. Half right. The middle infield fixed itself — Charlie Gehringer took second base and a deadline trade landed Bobby Wallace at short — and the aging role players mostly held.

What we badly undersold was the imbalance. This was not a balanced team. It was a historic offense bolted to a broken staff.

The bats were absurd. Cobb hit 386/440/841 with 54 homers, 72 doubles, 140 RBI, 157 runs and 82 steals (!), taking the Mel Trench Award and the All Rounder Award. Greenberg mashed 59 home runs and won a Gold Glove at first. At 21, Kaline claimed an everyday outfield job and posted that .957 OPS. Oscar Gamble carried a .396 on-base with 35 bombs, Ernie Lombardi and Bob Bailey combined for 53 homers, and a 35-year-old rookie named Juan Beníquez slugged his way to an .888 OPS.

They even had someone out-hit Cobb: J. D. Martinez posted a 1.291 OPS (.010 over Cobb’s) on 321/389/902 with 19 homers. Only 41 G, but still, that’s impressive.

Then there was the pitching. 28 arms cycled through the staff. Exactly 2 of them — Newhouser and closer Mike Henneman — finished with an ERA under 5.00, and nobody posted a WHIP under 1.30. Justin Verlander, Johnny Marcum, and a parade of others took the ball and got hammered. 81-82, 3rd place, and a first-round wild-card exit to San Francisco in which, of course, the arms got torched.

The lesson repeats until it’s learned: you cannot outscore a fire.

Key Changes

In: —
Out: Logan Hensley (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Wander Franco

Best Case for 2002

One arm holds. Newhouser repeats his organizational Pitcher of the Year form, Verlander’s long evaluation finally resolves into a real number 2, or one of the kids — Pete Conway, the loud-spring wildcard Sid Fernandez, someone else — simply pitches.

That’s it. A lineup this good doesn’t need a great staff, only a competent one. Give Cobb, Greenberg, and Kaline a rotation that survives October, let Henneman anchor the deepest bullpen the club has ever had, and Detroit runs off with a soft division and, for once, might win a series instead of giving it away on the mound.

Worst Case for 2002

The rotation dies on schedule. Newhouser stays intermittent, Verlander stays combustible, the 35-year-old Connie Johnson breaks down, and a lineup that is louder on the scoreboard than in the WAR column can’t paper over a staff-wide 5.00. Detroit effectively treads water for a 2nd consecutive year, making that the true reality, and the championship challenge of 2000 a dim memory.

That outcome results in some churn as well. With Cobb’s prime too precious to waste and a surplus of bats the only currency on hand, the untouchable core stops being untouchable. Pieces move — and that, of course, is a crapshoot. Finally, there is Cobb himself: as the losing sets in, the proud, prickly identity curdles, and the fierce competitor in right field starts looking like something meaner.

Key Questions

• Can they even recognize an ace? Detroit spends capital on pitching freely, buying Connie Johnson and Troy Percival last summer alone. It’s about evaluation. The Wolverines keep buying arms off a good month and watching them evaporate. Verlander is the test case: future rotation anchor, or future carpenter? Detroit has to answer that correctly, and its whole short history says it doesn’t do that so well.
• Who plays the outfield and DH — and does Chili Davis finally get moved? With Cobb, Kaline, and Gamble spoken for and J. D. Martinez demanding at-bats, there’s a genuine logjam, and Chili Davis has already lost it — he opens the year on the bench, a big power name without a slot in the standard lineups. He’s the obvious piece to sell, Detroit keeps seeing his power track record, and keeps hesitating. Moving him means the front office finally might glance beyond the box score.
• Who’s the shortstop — and the second baseman — in 2 years? Wallace is 35 and brittle, a 1-year bridge with no heir in the system; some will point to Wander Franco, who breaks camp at 20, but carries some conduct questions. Gehringer looks OK at 2B, but they’ve thought that before (Joe Wood, Tony Lazzeri, Damion Easley, etc, etc).

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

Pos	Players
C	Lombardi C · V. Martinez · Carrigan
1B	Greenberg A · Beníquez C
2B	Gehringer C
SS	Wallace C · Franco
3B	Bailey C
LF	Gamble B
CF	Kaline B
RF	Cobb S · Davis C
DH	J. D. Martinez
SP	Newhouser · Root F · Johnson · Verlander F · Conway · Fernandez · Marcum (IL)
RP	Henneman D (CL) · Percival D · Bradford D · Napier C

The catching depth is real and quietly unusual — most teams don’t carry 3 backstops, and those that do tend not to anticipate solid contributions from all of them.

Talent Ratings

	WBL	Minors
Raw Power	1B Hank Greenberg	LF Wes Covington
Batting Eye	LF Oscar Gamble	LF Jack Cust
Contact	RF Ty Cobb	SS Mike Caruso
Running Speed	RF Ty Cobb	CF Shane Victorino; RP Charlie Hilsey
Base Stealing	RF Ty Cobb	SS Ray Chapman; 3B Joe Werrick
IF Defense	1B Hank Greenberg	2B Hobe Ferris
OF Defense	RF Ty Cobb	RF Chris Denorfia
Stuff	SP Hal Newhouser	RP John Hiller
Control	SP Dick Donovan	RP Bill Gallagher
Velocity	RP Troy Percival; SP Justin Verlander	RP Felipe Vázquez; RP Joakim Soria

Best In The Minors

Rank	Age	Pos	Name
1 (54)	23	SP	John Healy
2 (85)	23	CF	Moose McCormick
3 (90)	23	SP	Frank Lary
4 (94)	19	C	Bill Freehan

Others: P George Mullin, P Milt Pappas, P Jack F Wilson, IF Ray Chapman, OF Riley Greene.

A year ago this list was topped by 2 names now anchoring the everyday lineup — Kaline, last spring’s No. 1 prospect, and Gehringer at No. 4. A third, Emil Yde was shipped out to Baltimore. What replaced them is, for once, the right shape: the system ranks 18th and thin, but half the ranked names are arms — John Healy (A) and Frank Lary (AA). The published order is not the org’s own, though: the name Detroit rates highest is the one the list ranks lowest, 19-year-old catcher Bill Freehan, and it thinks a good deal more of recent draft pick Riley Greene than his absence would suggest.

There are some other interesting arms: George Mullin struck out 172 across Double-A and Triple-A last year at 24, Milt Pappas put up 124 innings of 4.21 ball, and Jack F Wilson punched out 105 in 108 innings at Triple-A. None of them is a front-of-rotation answer and the run prevention is ordinary across the board. But competence is the goal, and they just might clear that bar.

Superlatives

	Most	Least
Age	Tony Lazzeri, 37 (AA)	Billy Hoeft, 19 (AAA)
Height	Chad Bradford, 6’5″	Charlie Hilsey, 5’7″ (A)
OPS	Ty Cobb, 1.281	Bill Freehan, .368 (A)
HR	Hank Greenberg, 59	George Mullin, 1 (AA)
SB	Ty Cobb, 82	–
WAR (bat)	Ty Cobb, 9.3	Bill Freehan, −2.0 (A)
W	Charlie Root, 11	–
SV	Frank Lary, 29 (A)	–
ERA	Mickey Lolich, 2.95 (A)	Justin Verlander, 6.48
WAR (pit)	George Mullin, 4.0 (AA)	Troy Percival, −1.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.