▌ State of the Franchise
Two years ago the Cuban Giants were the worst team in the league; last year they were in a playoff race into the final week and finished 80-83, 2nd in the Cum Posey Division, and nobody — inside the building or out — is entirely sure if this is progress or illusion.
Here is what isn’t in dispute. Miami hit an enormous number of home runs in the power-happy 2001 environment. José Canseco hit 68 of them, Jim Thome 59, Gary Sheffield and 20-year-old Julio Rodríguez 42 apiece, and 7 different men hit 28 or more. The lineup is young, deep and distributed — Iván Rodríguez won a Gold Glove behind the plate at 21, Alejandro Oms led the club at .308 at 22, Yasiel Puig slugged .658 in 100 games. So, unlike 2000 (when it was Canseco largely by himself), this is no longer a one-star team.
Still this is not an elite group the deeper you look. Canseco’s 68 homers amassed only 1.7 WAR, and — with one historically notable exception — the defense is not great.
So the season turns on the run prevention, and specifically on the rotation, which is José Méndez and then a lot of uncertainty. Méndez made 37 starts, threw 233 innings, struck out 201 and was worth 7.5 wins in a league whose average ERA was 5.38. Behind him: Jim Whitney, an All-AL Team pick acquired midseason and then pure projection and hope.
▌ 2001 Revisited
The bar a year ago was stunningly low: to no longer be considered one of the absolute worst teams in the league would be a nice start. They cleared it in the first month and spent the rest of the summer embarrassing the forecast.
The best case asked for Canseco to repeat and for someone — Molitor, Sheffield, Oms, “or even Puig” — to join him. What actually happened is that nearly everyone did (other than Molitor, who was moved for Pudge, sort of). Thome put up a 1.034 OPS. Sheffield hit 42. Puig hit 298/388/658. And J. Rodríguez, who came into camp with no realistic shot at the roster, took center field on Opening Day and hit 315/347/661 at 20.
The other half of that best case was a front of the rotation built from Camilo Pascual, Freddie Fitzsimmons and Méndez, with Cole Hamels joining them. Méndez delivered. Pascual made 5 starts and blew out a knee. Fitzsimmons was awful, Hamels only slightly better.
And one question got answered: we asked whether Eustaquio Pedroso and Martín Dihigo could carry the 2-way experiment far enough to justify it. Pedroso hit worse than anyone on the roster and abandoned the bat, but maintained the late-inning flexibility. Dihigo, who at 18 was arguably the worst-hitting regular in the league, climbed to 246/291/429 and stole 39 bases — still not a good hitter, and the most interesting player in the organization anyway largely due to his gold glove potential at a half-dozen positions.
▌ Key Changes
In: CC Sabathia (HOD)
Out: —
Opening Day Rookies: None
▌ Best Case for 2002
The bats hold and the arms arrive. Canseco and Thome do it again, J. Rodríguez proves 2001 wasn’t a fluke, Puig turns 100 good games into 150, and Iván Rodríguez adds the bat to the glove at 22.
Behind Méndez and Whitney, 2 of the question marks answer: Pascual comes back from the knee, Phenomenal Smith turns 5 starts of 1.98 ball into a season, and CC Sabathia — 179 innings for a bad House of David club — finds the form that made him worth acquiring. Hamels is the interesting one: a 6.18 ERA with 168 strikeouts and 2.3 WAR.
Do that and the squinting stops. This is a young roster with a real ace, and the difference between 80 wins and 90 seems attainable.
▌ Worst Case for 2002
The bats come back to earth. Canseco’s .705 slugging settles toward the middle, the outfield defense keeps leaking, and the same offense produces 15 fewer wins because the run environment normalized rather than because anyone got worse.
Meanwhile the rotation stays what it was. Pascual’s knee doesn’t hold, Sabathia pitches like he did last year (5-15, a 5.78, replacement level), Ramón Martínez gives back another 134 innings of 7.17, and the middle innings — already the org’s stated area of concern — go on being handed to whoever didn’t make the rotation.
▌ Key Questions
- How much of 2001 was the ballpark? The honest answer is: some, and nobody knows how much. 7 men over 28 home runs is a real lineup or a park effect wearing a costume, and Miami will spend the summer finding out which. The tell to watch isn’t the homer totals — it’s the WAR underneath them, which last year said “good, not great.”
- Is there a rotation behind Méndez/Whitney? He is a genuine ace and a workhorse, and Whitney may be similar. But the questions beyond that need to be answered.
- Does the flexibility matter? Dihigo has started at 7 positions, Yount is a shortstop with an outfield move already being discussed, Sheffield isn’t really a third baseman at all, and the 2-way experiments seem amusing, but little more than that.
▌ Roster Evaluation
Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.
| Pos | Players |
|---|---|
| C | I. Rodríguez C · Hoiles |
| 1B | Thome A · Adcock |
| 2B | Dihigo C · Roberts |
| SS | Yount B |
| 3B | Sheffield A · Branyan |
| LF | Oms C · Pafko |
| CF | J. Rodríguez A |
| RF | Puig B |
| DH | Canseco A |
| SP | Méndez A · Whitney A · Smith · Pascual · Hamels F · Sabathia D |
| RP | Papelbon C (CL) · Marte · Colomé · Pedroso · Wilson |
Dihigo is 19 and the cells can’t hold him: he has started at 7 positions, plays a Gold Glove infield, stole 39 bases, and still hasn’t learned to hit. Jonathan Papelbon has the 9th inning, acquired at the deadline in a burst of playoff belief that cost the org a blue-chip arm in Josh Beckett — and Ricky Nolasco, who saved 26 games last year, opens this one at Triple-A trying to become a starter.
▌ Talent Ratings
| WBL | Minors | |
|---|---|---|
| Raw Power | RF José Canseco | 1B Steve Balboni |
| Batting Eye | 1B Jim Thome | RF Carlos Morán |
| Contact | SS Robin Yount | 2B Nellie Fox |
| Running Speed | 2B Martín Dihigo | CF Marquis Grissom |
| Base Stealing | SP Phenomenal Smith | SS Bert Campaneris; RP Dan Collins |
| IF Defense | 2B Martín Dihigo | 2B Luis Castillo |
| OF Defense | RF Yasiel Puig | CF Marquis Grissom |
| Stuff | RP Dámaso Marte | RP Francis Martes |
| Control | SP Jim Whitney | RP Craig Lefferts |
| Velocity | RP Jonathan Papelbon | RP Tyler Clippard |
▌ Best In The Minors
| Rank | Age | Pos | Name |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (44) | 21 | SP | Scott Olsen |
| 2 (49) | 24 | LF | Jason Bay |
| 3 (55) | 19 | CL | Pedro Martínez |
| 4 (60) | 20 | SS | Jack Glasscock |
| 5 (91) | 22 | CF | José Cruz |
Others: OF Carlos Morán, P Lefty George, OF Minnie Miñoso, IF Zoilo Versalles.
This system turns over as fast as the roster does: a year ago the list was headed by Josh Beckett and J. Rodríguez with Jon Matlack 3rd, and all 3 are gone — Beckett to Memphis, Rodríguez into the everyday center-field job, Matlack to the House of David for Sabathia.
What replaced them is arm-heavy and young: Scott Olsen, Jason Bay, and a 19-year-old Pedro Martínez making his A ball debut. Lefty George took the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year and Carlos Morán is the name the club talks about as Sheffield’s eventual replacement at third.
▌ Superlatives
| Most | Least | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | Joe Adcock, 40 | Ed Seward, 18 |
| Height | CC Sabathia, 6’7″ | Phenomenal Smith, 5’6″ |
| OPS | Carlos Quentin, 1.082 (AA) | Willie Kamm, .567 (AA) |
| HR | José Canseco, 68 | Luis Castillo, 1 (AA) |
| SB | Carlos Morán, 52 (AAA) | – |
| WAR (bat) | Bob Loane, 4.6 (AA) | Cookie Rojas, −2.8 |
| W | Don Wilson, 13 (AA) | – |
| SV | Jonathan Papelbon, 28 | – |
| ERA | Gary Gentry, 3.07 (AA) | Ramón Martínez, 7.17 |
| WAR (pit) | José Méndez, 7.5 | CC Sabathia, −0.0 |
Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.