▌ State of the Franchise
Portland won the Cum Posey Division in 2000 and finished last there the following year, ending 2001 at 71-91, 32 games out. Nobody in the Pacific Northwest thought it could fall apart that fast, that hard.
The collapse was on the offensive side, and it wasn’t one man having a bad year. Gil Hodges led the club with 38 home runs and was worth −1.4 WAR, which takes some doing. Bobby Murcer hit 33 and finished at −0.4. Kiki Cuyler and Cliff Lee also went negative in real playing time. The Sea Dogs finished last in most offensive measures while 4 different men cleared 30 homers, empty totals boosted by the extreme nature of the league last season.
So they sold everything with an age on it. Rogers Hornsby went to the Black Yankees for Jake Peavy and a 1st. Buddy Bell went out for Robin Ventura and some arms. SS Jim Fregosi is gone, as are half the bullpen.
What’s left is young, perhaps recklessly so. Joseíto Muñoz is 20 and in the rotation. Walter Johnson (the clear ace) and Bert Blyleven are 21. Joe Mauer caught 125 games and took the organizational MVP at age 23. Ken Griffey Jr is 21 and already the best bat here.
Nobody in Portland is selling 2002 as a contention year, but getting back on track is the highest priority for the organization.
▌ 2001 Revisited
We opened last spring asking for a deep playoff run once again, with championship contention. They lost 91 games. There’s no reading of that which doesn’t make it the worst call we’ve ever printed.
The best case wanted everyone behind Johnson to step up — Blyleven as a real number 2, Dizzy Trout as a more consistent rotation option, even Elmer Brown converting into a starter out of the pen, and 1st-round pick Walter Ball stepping straight in. Ball delivered: a 4.26 ERA over 141 innings, which against a league that gave up 5.38 is genuinely good, and enough for the organizational Pitcher of the Year. But he missed half the season through injury. The rest were fine (Blyleven, Trout) or bad (Brown, others).
The worst case reads like it was written afterward. Hornsby and Hodges show the effects of age, and the OF regresses towards absolute mediocrity. Hodges hit 208/292/461. Murcer hit 250/311/489. Hornsby played well enough to be traded in July and is a Black Yankee now.
Johnson is the part nobody should skip past. He threw 214 innings with a 4.28 ERA and 182 strikeouts, led the club at 4.6 WAR, and won a Gold Glove on the mound. He is 21, and looks quite likely to dodge the standard concerns about consistency and injury that accompany young arms.
▌ Key Changes
In: Jack Billingham (IND); Royce Clayton (SFS); Robin Ventura (IND)
Out: Buddy Bell (IND); Trevor Hoffman (SFS)
Opening Day Rookies: Chuck Klein; Willard Schmidt
▌ Best Case for 2002
The rotation arrives ahead of schedule. Johnson goes from very good to the best arm in the league. Ball’s 4.26 turns out to be who he is, over a full year this time. Muñoz holds a rotation spot and Peavy — who missed all of 2001 after coming over in the Hornsby trade — throws 150 healthy innings.
And, the bats do their part. Griffey starts taking a walk. Ventura steadies 3B. Abreu turns a 90-plate-appearance cameo into an everyday corner. And, perhaps, even Vladimir Guerrero, 21 and knocking from Vancouver, forces his way in.
Portland doesn’t win anything in 2002, but it could be a year the team can see the path back to where they were in 2000.
▌ Worst Case for 2002
Young pitching does what young pitching does. An elbow goes, Peavy’s lost year becomes a lost career, and Muñoz can’t stay healthy while Johnson drifts towards league average.
The bats stay put, which is the more likely problem, because there’s no internal fix waiting. SS is Hughie Jennings and Clayton and hope. 2B is Paul Molitor, who by common agreement can’t play there. Both corner OF spots are competitions between men who were below average last year.
And the real challenge is there isn’t much left to dump — this is the hand Portland drew, so regression can quite easily slide into apathy if no hope arrives.
▌ Key Questions
- How long does this rotation stay together? Johnson, Ball, Blyleven and Muñoz are 21, 26, 21 and 20, and 3 of them have already thrown 140 or more WBL innings. That’s either the best young rotation in baseball or a list of injuries waiting to happen.
- Does Griffey learn the strike zone? 292/326/568 with 33 homers at 21, and 23 walks in the whole season. He was worth 0.8 WAR while looking like the best hitter on the roster. This is an organization that has twice now chosen the on-base bat over the louder one — Mauer over Iván Rodríguez, Bell over Adrián Beltré, but Griffey remains on the periphery of that approach.
- Who gets the ball in the 9th? Hoffman is in San Francisco. John Wetteland posted a 6.75 after arriving in Portland and a 9.90 before it. Huston Street was a waiver claim. Jack Billingham is the only reliever here who was reliably fine, and nobody has called him the closer.
▌ Roster Evaluation
Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.
| Pos | Players |
|---|---|
| C | Mauer C · Ashby |
| 1B | Hrbek B · Hodges F |
| 2B | Molitor C · Frey |
| SS | Jennings · Clayton |
| 3B | Ventura · Garrett |
| LF | Murcer D |
| CF | Griffey Jr B |
| RF | Abreu · Klein |
| DH | Hodges F |
| SP | Johnson C · Ball C · Blyleven D · Muñoz D · Peavy |
| RP | Billingham C · Street F · Wetteland F · Springer · Schmidt |
Mauer is the quiet argument for the whole approach: a catcher who hit 278/360/463 with 31 steals, made the AL All-Star team and took the organizational MVP on a last-place club, at 23. Portland kept him over Rodríguez and has had no reason to revisit it.
▌ Talent Ratings
| WBL | Minors | |
|---|---|---|
| Raw Power | SP Dizzy Trout | RF Hugh Duffy |
| Batting Eye | 3B Wayne Garrett | 2B Jack Crooks |
| Contact | SS Hughie Jennings | LF Riggs Stephenson |
| Running Speed | SP Walter Johnson | LF David Hulse |
| Base Stealing | SS Hughie Jennings | LF David Hulse |
| IF Defense | SS Hughie Jennings | SS Bobby Wine; 3B Lee Tannehill |
| OF Defense | RF Bobby Abreu | CF Gary Pettis |
| Stuff | RP John Wetteland | RP Harry Harper |
| Control | SP Bert Blyleven | RP Jack Wisner |
| Velocity | RP Huston Street; RP John Wetteland | RP Migel Puente; SP Joaquin Benoit |
▌ Best In The Minors
| Rank | Age | Pos | Name |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (5) | 21 | RF | Hugh Duffy |
Others: IF Jack Fournier, P José Berríos, P Harry Harper, C Frankie Hayes.
Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Chuck Klein (83).
One ranked name, and he’s the 5th-best prospect in baseball. Hugh Duffy is 21 and slated as a WBL starter in a corner Portland can’t currently fill, which is convenient. Alongside him at Vancouver is Vladimir Guerrero, also 21, who came over in the Iván Rodríguez deal and is off the ranked list entirely — the kind of omission that either looks foolish in 2 years or explains itself. Fournier was a high draft pick, and should have a career, but he’s only 16 — child labor laws be damned.
▌ Superlatives
| Most | Least | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | Russ Springer, 38 | Jack Fournier, 16 |
| Height | Walt Bond, 6’7″ | Nemo Leibold, 5’6″ |
| OPS | Ernie Krueger, 1.059 (AAA) | Fred Dunlap, 0.500 (AA) |
| HR | Gil Hodges, 38 | Gary Pettis, 1 (AA) |
| SB | Hughie Jennings, 45 (AAA) | – |
| WAR (bat) | Walt Bond, 3.9 (AAA) | Fred Dunlap, -1.8 (AA) |
| W | Walter Johnson, 13 | – |
| SV | Harry Matuzak, 20 (AAA) | – |
| ERA | Joe H Coleman, 2.94 (A) | Kris Medlen, 6.60 (AAA) |
| WAR (pit) | Walter Johnson, 4.6 | Kris Medlen, -1.0 (AAA) |
Stats across all levels, 2001. 200 PA / 75 IP min (SV: all pitchers). Non-WBL levels tagged.