Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Mike Benjamin

TWIWBL 99.1: Year 3, Week 2 — The Rains of April

15 April, 2002

Awards

WBL Players of the Week

Manny Ramírez takes the American League award for Memphis, Oscar Charleston the National League for Indianapolis. Charleston’s case was essentially made in a single afternoon, as he launched 3 homeruns in a 19-5 win over the New York Gothams. Those were 3 of the his 4 homeruns on the week, during which he hit .385 with 11 RBIs.

Ramírez didn’t show Charleston’s power, but he did hit .524 for the week.

MiL Players of the Week

The Minor League seasons have begun!

So they have their own Player of the Week awards: Roger Maris (New York Black Yankees) took AAA at Newark, Mike Benjamin (Birmingham Black Barons) at AA, and Bill Hallman (Homestead Grays) at A-ball. Of those, only Maris seems to be knocking on the WBL door, but he’s likely shutout unless injury hits the Black Yankees.

Behind the Curtain

I wanted to highlight some things that I’ve been doing in the OOTP engine itself, mostly as information that might be useful for other folks running their own leagues.

In the offseason, I updated the ballparks to actual precipitation rates.

Turns out that’s not great. Here’s why:

Precipitation in OOTP really impacts the game; as such, the question is not how much did it rain, the question is how often did enough rain fall that it impacted play?

The higher precipitation rates–in effect for the first two weeks of the season–were highly, highly impactful. Just under half the games saw rain, just under 10% of the games were postponed, and, in something new to OOTP 27, it seems like rain now pushes error rates up in a noticeable way.

Note that I like rain delays and rainouts–I like anything that stresses roster construction, things that force teams to make roster moves, etc. But this was ridiculous.

A quick sample of impacted games:

  • Chicago threw shutouts on consecutive days and neither was 9 innings. The 4/13 win over Los Angeles was called in the 8th for bad weather (Waite Hoyt, 6 innings, 8 strikeouts); Mark Buehrle‘s 1-hitter the next afternoon was called in the 6th.
  • Ottawa‘s Roy Halladay got 2 innings and 20 pitches on 4/12 before a 36-minute delay ended his night.
  • The Gothams’ 1-0, 10-inning combined 3-hitter at Kansas City on 4/13 was shaped entirely by weather: a 38-minute delay in the 5th ended Pete Donohue at 55 pitches and Masahiro Tanaka piggybacked the rest.
  • San Francisco‘s 11-0 on 4/14: a 33-minute delay in the 5th ended Bump Hadley at 5 innings, and Charlie Ferguson threw the last 4 without giving up another hit.

So what changed?

Essentially, if you go by real-world precipitation rates, you will see a lot of 30s in the weather table.

I just cut each number in half, rounding up. That was it–I left the driest months in LA and San Francisco alone so those summers are still bone dry, and I left Houston alone because of the roof.

We’ll be tracking these numbers and will report back at the end of the month.

The Stats

… will debut next week. Wanted to wait for 3 weeks of data.

Hardest-Hit Balls

Welcome to a new feature, enabled by Claude, who can parse through the game logs quickly and accurately!

So we can now present each week the hardest hits and the hardest outs.

This week, two men tied at the top, each launching bombs at 121 mph. Willie Stargell of Homestead got the better end of it — his solo shot off Houston’s Stephen Strasburg travelled 495 feet, which ties it for the longest home run struck in the league this season. Rogers Hornsby of the New York Black Yankees matched the exit velocity three days later, a 2-run drive off Cleveland‘s Ron Reed.

The hardest out belongs to Portland‘s Paul Molitor, who hit a 119 mph groundball out. Molitor had homered earlier in the game, on a ball hit 16 mph softer. That’s baseball.

Year III Season Preview: Birmingham Black Barons

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Black Barons say they want to pick a direction and hold it. The transaction log says otherwise. Two games out in July and they buy; one bad month and they tear it down. So far, that’s only produced a mushy pile of dissatisfaction, and the fans are beginning to grumble.

2001 was worse than 2000: 5th in the Marvin Miller Division and seemingly exiled to the borders of the standings. Hence the line the front office has now drawn: Birmingham, they say, is aiming for a championship between 2003 and 2005.

Though, you know, if they’re 4 games out in August …

The pressing problem is simple: nobody here gets outs. Birmingham took a wild card in 2000 on the strength of its arms. Last year Greg Maddux and Alejandro Peña gave up 109 home runs between them. One-effing-hundred-and-nine. The lineup put 5 men over 40 homers and the team finished last.

2001 Revisited

A year ago the read on Birmingham was blunt: they were strong on the mound, couldn’t score, and held a roster that didn’t look like a strong playoff contender. So they fixed the offense — emphatically. They shipped their own ace, Andy Pettitte, to New York for Albert Belle (a deal Birmingham still tells itself it won, never mind that Pettitte became a Bronx ace), imported Paul Konerko and Ryan Braun (for the NL All-Star arm of Jim Whitney), then Bobby Grich, and turned the box score into a fireworks show. Hank Aaron hit 51 home runs, Belle 46, Eddie Mathews 46, Jim Pagliaroni 45, Curtis Granderson 41.

And they finished dead last, 75-87, 10 out. The power was a mirage in an exploding offensive year: Belle’s 46 came with negative WAR, Aaron’s 51 with 16 walks all season, Mathews’ 46 on a .224 average, Granderson’s 41 on .206. Nobody got on base, and solo home runs are … nice?

Underneath it, the pitching everyone had worried about collapsed — Peña’s ace season evaporated, Maddux gave up 59 home runs all by himself, and the bullpen was a struggle all season (excepting the pleasant surprise of closer Harley Young). The club’s own review said it plainest: they scored way too few runs, despite hitting the ball out of the park with shocking regularity.

Key Changes

In: Bill Byrd (BAL); Asdrúbal Cabrera (BAL)
Out: Curt Flood (BAL)

Opening Day Rookies: Asdrúbal Cabrera; Melky Cabrera; Slim Embrey; Kerry Ligtenberg; Joe Torre

Best Case for 2002

They hold still. Maddux fronts a rotation for a full year, Bill Byrd takes the ball every 5th day behind him, Lefty Gomez does the same behind Byrd, and the staff ERA comes down without anyone new arriving. Asdrúbal Cabrera‘s glove holds at short, stilling a long-standing revolving door. Granderson’s platoon with Melky Cabrera covers center well enough, and the young starters — Rube Melton, Al Javery, John Malarkey — get their turns. That isn’t a juggernaut: the goal is a year that ends with more pitching than it started with, and clarity about how the offense adapts to a less HR-rich environment.

Worst Case for 2002

The same movie runs again. One Cabrera can’t play short, the other Cabrera flops in CF, and the drop in homers across the league leaves the Black Barons a team that doesn’t get on base and doesn’t do anything else, either. Then, one hot week in August makes the team sniff the playoffs, and another knee-jerk deal is done that changes the overall direction again.

Or, simply, Maddux implodes.

Key Questions

  • Will Birmingham keep an arm? Pettitte is the loud example, but Whitney is really no different. All-Star arms, traded for perceived value, but leaving a vacuum behind that is always filled with slightly lesser arms (no knock on Lefty Gomez and John Malarkey, but nobody would say they prefer them to Pettitte and Whitney).
  • Is the power real? Aaron, Konerko, Belle, Braun, Pagliaroni: 5 right-handed bats of consequence. But the league has changed, and Rickwood Field is projected to dampen right-handed power. This is really 2 questions: does the power maintain and, if so, do they keep it or move it on?
  • Who plays shortstop? The softest spot on the roster, with no clean internal answer (not new — last year’s semi-platoon of Herman Long and Troy Tulowitzki wasn’t very good in the end). Can Cabrera seize the position? If not, is Dick Groat the answer? Or do Long or Tulo force their way back into the conversation — a likely sign of failure if it happens.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CPagliaroni A · Torre
1BKonerko B · Fairly
2BGrich B · A. Cabrera
SSA. Cabrera · Long D · Groat
3BMathews B
LFBraun B · Davis
CFGranderson D · M. Cabrera
RFAaron B
DHBelle C
SPMaddux D · Byrd · Gomez D · Melton · Malarkey · Javery
RPYoung B (CL) · Otsuka B · Ligtenberg · Peña D · Embrey · Chen

Look at all that gold … the lineup could be quite good.

For all the ruthlessness in the market, Birmingham is stubbornly loyal inside its own clubhouse — veterans get ridden a beat past their expiration, and Bruce Chen, the 37-year-old lefty being handed soft, low-leverage innings rather than a cold release, is the gentlest version of it.

The 9th inning is its own question. Juan Rincón saved 26 games in 2000, then came apart in 2001 — an 8.47 ERA across 34 innings — and the job now belongs to Young, who answered with a 2.29 ERA and 15 saves on results rather than stuff. 2003 shouldn’t bank on him until the command proves it holds.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power3B Eddie Mathews1B Nate Colbert
Batting Eye2B Bobby Grich2B Cupid Childs
ContactLF Tommy Davis2B Cupid Childs
Running SpeedSS Herman Long3B Ricardo Hernández
Base StealingSS Herman LongC Art Nichols; 2B Cupid Childs
IF DefenseSS Herman Long3B Mike Benjamin; 2B Jess Barbour
OF DefenseRF Hank AaronCF Lenny Dykstra
StuffRP Kerry LigtenbergRP Jason Grilli
ControlSP Al JaveryRP Carlos Diaz
VelocityRP Akinori OtsukaRP Steve Cishek

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (22)22CFLenny Dykstra
2 (28)21LFGary Matthews
3 (68)212BJess Barbour
4 (97)21SPBill James

Others: IF Cupid Childs, IF Nate Colbert, IF Ozzie Albies, IF Richie Sexson, OF Ron Gant.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Joe Torre (14), Kerry Ligtenberg (58).

A year ago this list was headed by Whitney, the arm flipped to Miami for Braun, and Torre, who has since graduated into the backup-catcher job. The new man at the top, Lenny Dykstra, is himself a trade acquisition — part of the Konerko haul from Chicago. What’s left is thin but useful: Dykstra and Gary Matthews in the outfield, Jess Barbour‘s utility glove, and Bill James, clinging to the back of the top hundred. Note what isn’t there. James is the only arm in the system worth ranking (maybe Cozy Dolan, but …), and the 5 unranked names behind him — Cupid Childs, Nate Colbert, Ozzie Albies, Richie Sexson, Ron Gant — are 5 more bats.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeBruce Chen, 37Frank Gilhooley, 18
HeightRichie Sexson, 6’8″Kid Baldwin, 5’6″
OPSPaul Konerko, .964George McBride, .585 (AA)
HRNate Colbert, 57 (AAA)Brock Davis, 1 (A)
SBCupid Childs, 37
WAR (bat)Gary Matthews, 5.1 (A)Pie Traynor, −1.0 (AAA)
WJohn Malarkey, 11
SVHarley Young, 17
ERABill James, 3.69 (A)Mike Leake, 6.77 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Rube Melton, 3.3 (AAA)Bill James, −0.9 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

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