Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Mike Scott

TWIWBL 102.1: Year 3, Week 5 – One Month In!

6 May, 2002

And we enter the second month of the season! Whoo Hoo!

Which means we have monthly awards for the first time, and we have our first review of the early standings.

#Awards

Miami‘s Robin Yount is the AL Player of the Week, hitting .450 with 2 homeruns, 6 runs and 5 RBI, and slugging an even 1.000. Yount is up to .283 with 6 homeruns and 12 doubles on the year.

The NL Player of the Week goes to Grant Johnson of the New York Gothams for the second week running: Johnson hit .409 with 3 homeruns, 3 doubles and 7 RBI while slugging .955. Overall, he’s hitting .379 with 9 homeruns and a league-leading 15 doubles.

In the minors: Freddie Lindstrom (Chicago American Giants) took the award at AAA Milwaukee, where the 21-year-old third baseman is hitting .306 with 7 homeruns, making his early demotion seem a bit of a mistake in judgement by the American Giants; Raúl Mondesi (Wandering House of David) won at AA Albuquerque, and Al López (Brooklyn) at A-ball Albany, where the 33-year-old catcher is hitting .426.

#April Awards

The first month is in the books, and one name on the list is no surprise at all.

Ted Williams (Memphis) is the AL Batter of the Month, having hit .437 with 14 homeruns, 30 runs and 34 RBI in April while slugging an even 1.000. Grant Johnson takes the NL award–not a surprise given the above.

Waite Hoyt (Chicago) is the AL Pitcher of the Month, going 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 36.2 innings. For a team whose primary weakness was dependable starting pitching, the acquisition of Hoyt sure looks like good work for Chicago.

Over in the NL, the Pitcher of the Month goes to one of Johnson’s teammates on the Gothams, Christy Mathewson. Seemingly returning to his 2000 form, Matty has started the season perfectly, going 6-0 with a 2.27 ERA.

Whitey Ford (New York Black Yankees) went 3-2 with a 2.25 ERA in April, earning the AL Rookie of the Month Award, and in the NL, Philadelphia‘s Harmon Killebrew is the Rookie of the Month, despite only hitting .255. 9 homeruns in a calendar month will do that.

The minors have their own monthly awards too, of course.

At AAA, Roger Maris of the New York Black Yankees was the Batter of the Month, hitting .418 with 11 homeruns at Newark, and Mike Scott (Los Angeles) won the Pitcher of the Month, going 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA. Cody Bellinger (Wandering House of David) hit .404 at AA Albuquerque and Hugh Mulcahy (Homestead) went 3-0 with a 1.93 at AA Syracuse. At A-ball, John Bass (Philadelphia) hit 10 homeruns and Fred Gladding (Indianapolis) allowed only 2 earned runs in 15.1 innings, as they took home the monthly honors.

#Team Performance

I know it’s early. You know it’s early. Still, it is May. And that’s no longer April, right?

The best records in the WBL belong to two surprise teams: Memphis leads the Bill James Division and Philadelphia tops the Effa Manley, each with a 20-11 record–that’s a .645 clip.

Ottawa (a game behind Philadelphia) and Chicago (leading the Cum Posey Division) are the only other teams playing over .600 ball.

The Baltimore Black Sox sit at the other end of the scale, already 11.5 games out in the Bill James Division, sitting at 8-22. But they aren’t the only major disappointments: both Birmingham and Indianapolis are only winning at a .333 clip (10-20).

Full standings are at the top of each divisional page for the curious.

#Player Performance

Five weeks in, qualifying is 3.1 plate appearances or 1 inning per team game — about 96 PA and 31 innings.

Some early season streaks of note: The Gothams’ Grant Johnson has a 15 game hitting streak going and Memphis’ Ted Williams has reached base in 30 straight. On the mound, Chicago’s Joel Horlen hasn’t allowed a run in 23 innings and Kansas City’s Smokey Joe Wood in 14.

#Batters

Ted Williams is still the story, and it is getting harder to describe without sounding like an advertisement: he leads the WBL in batting average, on-base, slugging, homeruns, runs, RBI, walks and WAR, outright. That only leaves 2B, 3B, and SB for others.

This list should reduce a little over time, but it’s got some decent WBL storylines in it–the resurgence of a healthy Pete Browning, Rico Carty‘s deal with the devil to combat his age, Cool Papa Bell giving Rickey Henderson some competition for the SB crown, etc.

But it’s really all about The Splendid Splinter for now.

Ernie Banks (HOD). .225/.299/.549. 9 HR, 27 RBI.
Cool Papa Bell (KAN). .204/.295/.280. 10 SB.
Dan Brouthers (BRK). .369/.416/.612. 11 2B.
Pete Browning (HOD). .331/.389/.508. 10 2B, 9 SB.
Rico Carty (PHI). .374/.442/.670.
Oscar Charleston (IND). .300/.341/.642. 12 HR, 29 RBI, 1.9 WAR.
Roberto Clemente (HOM). .372/.413/.698. 7 HR.
Ty Cobb (DET). .345/.390/.708. 10 HR, 2.0 WAR.
Eric Davis (NYY). .260/.353/.452. 8 SB.
Lou Gehrig (NYY). .288/.373/.635. 25 RBI.
Hank Greenberg (DET). .272/.348/.476. 4 3B.
Bobby Grich (BBB). .202/.362/.279. 22 BB.
Rickey Henderson (SFS). .229/.333/.365. 9 SB.
Grant Johnson (NYG). .379/.402/.741. 9 HR, 15 2B, 1.6 WAR.
Harmon Killebrew (PHI). .275/.325/.569. 10 HR.
Willie Mays (NYG). .289/.344/.588. 25 R.
Joe Morgan (IND). .253/.405/.374. 23 BB.
Jackie Robinson (BRK). .336/.381/.509. 14 2B.
Babe Ruth (NYY). .232/.387/.611. 11 HR, 21 BB.
Chino Smith (CAG). .292/.324/.736. 13 HR, 30 R, 32 RBI.
Mike Trout (LAA). .300/.349/.567. 12 2B.
Ted Williams (MEM). .419/.533/.914. 15 HR, 33 R, 39 RBI, 27 BB, 2.7 WAR.

#Pitchers

#Starters

There’s nowhere near the single person dominance on the mound–early days, of course, but it looks like we may have some good years on the mound coming.

Brett Anderson (HOD). 4-2, 2.84.
Steve Carlton (PHI). 4-1, 2.56. 41 K.
Don Drysdale (MEM). 2-1, 2.48. 49 K.
Bob Feller (CLE). 1-4, 4.58. 52 K.
Whitey Ford (NYY). 3-2, 3.19. 2.94 FIP.
Ned Garvin (BAL). 1-2, 4.10. 50 K, .208 BABIP.
Lefty Gomez (BBB). 2-4, 2.82. 2.30 FIP.
Dwight Gooden (LAA). 2-2, 4.30. 1.96 FIP, 1.7 WAR.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 3-1, 3.47. 62 K.
Waite Hoyt (CAG). 4-1, 2.52. 42 K, 2.60 FIP.
Walter Johnson (POR). 3-3, 2.76. 64 K, 2.66 FIP.
Christy Mathewson (NYG). 6-0, 2.74. 64 K, 49.1 IP.
José Méndez (MCG). 3-2, 2.57. 0.93 WHIP.
Joseíto Muñoz (POR). 2-0, 2.55. 46 K, 2.48 FIP.
David Price (HOM). 2-1, 2.90. 0.94 WHIP.
Charles Radbourn (OTT). 3-1, 1.57. 2.28 FIP, 1.5 WAR.
Toad Ramsey (HOU). 2-3, 3.24. 50 K, 2.53 FIP, 1.5 WAR.
Tom Seaver (MEM). 2-1, 1.59.
J.M. Ward (PHI). 4-2, 3.51. .213 BABIP.
Jim Whitney (MCG). 1-1, 3.40. 54 K, 0.86 WHIP.
Smokey Joe Wood (KAN). 3-0, 2.23. 47 K, 0.69 WHIP, 2.31 FIP.

#Relievers

Rate stats still want another week or two. The saves and holds:

Rod Beck (SFS). 1-2, 4.09. 7 Sv.
Dellin Betances (HOD). 2 Sv, 4 Hld.
Jack Billingham (POR). 3.60. 7 Sv.
Chad Bradford (DET). 2-2, 3.68. 5 Hld.
Jeurys Familia (LAA). 3.21. 5 Hld.
Eric Gagné (BRK). 0.75. 8 Sv.
Andrew Miller (MEM). 1.26. 6 Sv.
Jonathan Papelbon (MCG). 3.27. 7 Sv.
Eustaquio Pedroso (MCG). 4.87. 4 Hld.
Vito Tamulis (NYG). 3.38. 6 Hld.
Kent Tekulve (NYG). 2-0, 4.76. 5 Hld.
Brian Wilson (NYG). 1.74. 9 Sv.

Note that the Gothams may be back on track in their quest to rebuild their bullpen.

Two arms have yet to allow a run at all: Birmingham’s Kerry Ligtenberg over 16.1 innings, with 21 strikeouts and 4 hits allowed, and Chicago’s Joe Horlen over 20.2.

#Hardest Shots

Birmingham’s Eddie Mathews hit the hardest ball of the season so far, a 126 mph solo homerun. Mathews doesn’t hit many balls, but at least that one was a freaking rocket. Cleveland‘s Ed Bailey and Birmingham’s Bobby Grich also hit balls over 120 mph.

The hardest out belonged to a pitcher: Jim Whitney (Miami) flew out to center at 118 mph.

#Injuries

Houston‘s outfield took another hit–with Tony Gwynn already sidelined, the eternally underappreciated Jim Wynn will miss 2-3 weeks.

Frank Grant of the San Francisco Sea Lions is out a couple weeks and some other important names (Ottawa’s Gary Peters, Cleveland’s Louis Santop, Kansas City‘s Rube Foster, and Homestead’s Ricardo Rincón) will each miss about a week.

Year III Season Preview: Los Angeles Angels

▌ State of the Franchise

team logo

The first Angels preview said the pitching should be solid, especially up front behind Doc Gooden and Gerrit Cole.

And, for a year, it was correct. But since then, their paths — and the fortunes of the franchise — have diverged. Gooden made the AL All-Star team at 23, threw 194 innings and struck out 172, and is on the fringes of the truly dominant starters in the league. That’s where Cole was in 2000, but last season, Cole went 7-15 with a 6.36 ERA and gave up 53 home runs in 166 innings. That’s … not good.

The offense seems decent enough — 2 genuine young stars (Mike Trout and Kal Daniels combined for 79 home runs, 81 doubles, and 100 stolen bases) and now, perhaps 3 with the arrival of Freddie Freeman (333/422/677 over 30 games). There are some questions here — catching has always been an issue, and the MI has never truly settled (even less so since the organization traded away Bobby Grich).

All of that sounds OK, but Los Angeles has declared they are actively displeased with OK, and spent the winter making some extreme changes. The net of it all is their 2 best starters — Tom Seaver and Brett Anderson — are gone, replaced by José Rijo and prayer, the lineup now sports Dobie Moore at SS and Billy Herman at 2B (Moore via trade, Herman via the Rule V draft), Richie Hebner floating around the corner IF with the departure of Doug Rader, and Dwight Evans as the 4th OF, and the Angels accumulated some MiL talent and — most importantly — a 1st round pick.

The window is 2004 and nobody is pretending otherwise. What 2002 is for is finding out which of these arms is real.

▌ 2001 Revisited

We asked for playoff contention and got 74-88, 3rd in the Cum Posey Division, 29 games out.

The forecast split cleanly down the middle. Everything it wanted from the bats happened: Trout became the superstar the best case demanded, taking the organizational MVP and finishing 3rd for the Mel Trench Award; Carlos Delgado held off age at 32 and led the club with 44 homers.

Everything it wanted from the arms went the other way. The best case named 6 pitchers who might make good on immense potential — Gooden, Elmer Smith, Chuck Finley, Nolan Ryan, Seaver, Sid Fernandez — (since released) and only Gooden did. Cole, the 2000 ace, was the collapse. Seaver was thoroughly meh and Pud Galvin — while certainly useful in a rubber-armed way — was effectively ordinary across 20 starts.

So the worst case, which predicted a hot mess on the mound and a Doug Rader reversion, was the more accurate take. Rader went from borderline MVP candidate to a pedestrian third baseman and was traded in March.

The other thing 2001 taught was about the bottom of the lineup. Ichiro Suzuki won a Gold Glove, played 140 games, and walked 7 times all year on his way to a .688 OPS and −1.2 WAR. Steve Garvey walked 8 times in 405 plate appearances. 1,400 PA, 15 walks. That’s no way to run a railroad.

▌ Key Changes

In: Bill Doak (FA); Dwight Evans (MEM); Richie Hebner (HOD); Billy Herman (FA); Dobie Moore (MEM); Jeff Pfeffer (KAN); José Rijo (KAN)

Out: Brett Anderson (HOD); Jay Bell (FA); Xander Bogaerts (MEM); Doug Rader (KAN); Tom Seaver (MEM)

Opening Day Rookies: Dwight Evans; Jeurys Familia; Freddie Freeman; Billy Herman; Darren Holmes; Ross Reynolds

▌ Best Case for 2002

Gooden finishes the climb to undisputed ace, and 2 of the arms behind him declare themselves. Rijo struck out 154 in Kansas City, Julio Teheran struck out 90 in 82 innings, Vic Willis is 23 and full of promise, and Ross Reynolds allowed exactly 1 home run (in the homer-happy context of the 2001 WBL) all season out of the pen. And the list of names above still waits: Finley, Ryan and Elmer Smith all open the year at Las Vegas.

And then the offense settles into sustained delivery: Freeman hits the way he did in September, Richie Hebner brings the 284/373/594 he posted for the House of David to third base, Moore settles shortstop at 21, and Gene Tenace — who walked 32 times in 155 plate appearances at Birmingham before the trade — gives the lineup an on-base bat.

The wins may not follow, and that’s allowed. 2002 is about answers.

▌ Worst Case for 2002

Nobody separates. The pool stays a pool, Cole’s home-run rate is just who he is now. The bullpen is the near-term version of the same problem. Francisco Rodríguez was among the worst closers in the league at 6.87, Pfeffer arrives off a 6.16, Bill Doak off a 6.37. None of that changes, and Suzuki’s bat doesn’t move, Herman doesn’t hold second base, and the lineup around Trout and Daniels looks no better than it did in 2001.

▌ Key Questions

  • Does what happens in Vegas matter? Oddly, many of the keys to LA’s future open the season at AAA in Las Vegas, where Mike Witt, Nolan Ryan, Mike Scott, John Lackey, Mike Krukow and Carlos Mármol all start the season. The org needs 2 or 3 of that group to separate, and it has deliberately arranged the year to find out — promote for clarity, not for reward.
  • Is the trust in the Doc warranted? The sharpest question of the Angels’ winter is why they sold Brett Anderson (11-6 with a 4.34 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in 189 innings and won the organizational Pitcher of the Year) and kept Gooden (11-11 with a 4.36, a 1.29 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in 194). Those are essentially the same season, and the fanbase will be keeping close tabs on how Anderson fares for the House of David.
  • Can anybody in the bottom half reach base? Every bat the org brought in — Hebner, Tenace, Moore, even Eddie Joost — gets on base.

▌ Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CTenace · Hassey
1BFreeman
2BHerman
SSMoore C · Joost
3BHebner A · Garvey
LFDaniels S
CFTrout S · Evans
RFSuzuki F
DHDelgado B
SPGooden C · Rijo C · Cole F · Galvin · Willis
RPRodríguez F · Reynolds B · Pfeffer F · Familia · Holmes · Doak

The bullpen is unsettled, most likely a committee approach until someone takes hold of the closer role.

▌ Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerCF Dwight Evans1B Jack Hannifin
Batting EyeSS Eddie JoostCF Jack Gleason
ContactRF Ichiro SuzukiLF Elmer Smith
Running SpeedRF Ichiro SuzukiCF Denard Span
Base StealingSP Pud GalvinCF Devon White; C Dave Pierson
IF Defense2B Billy Herman1B High Pockets Kelly
OF DefenseCF Dwight EvansCF Jim Landis
StuffRP Francisco RodríguezRP Nolan Ryan
ControlSP Roy Patterson; SP Pud GalvinSP Brian J Anderson
VelocityRP Francisco RodríguezRP Nolan Ryan

▌ Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (46)192BRod Carew
2 (73)221BBabe Herman
3 (74)23LFSteve Henderson
4 (99)25CLCarlos Mármol

Others: P John Lackey, P Luke Walker, P Mike Witt, 3B Pedro Álvarez.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Dwight Evans (26).

A year ago this list ran 10 deep and 8 of the 10 were pitchers, led by Elmer Smith at 19th in all of baseball. Smith is 26 and at Triple-A now, trying to figure out how to harness his genuine 2-way potential. Seaver graduated and was flipped to Memphis; Reynolds graduated into the bullpen and made the AL Rookie Team; Randy Tate, Marcus Semien, Esteban Loaiza and Brandon Nimmo all fell off the board.

What tops it now is a bat — 19-year-old Rod Carew, last year’s 1st-round pick, a second baseman who is unlikely to stay one. Babe Herman (no relation to Billy) and Steve Henderson supply corner power behind him, and Mármol is the lone arm.

The list understates the system, though, because the interesting part isn’t ranked. Las Vegas is carrying most of the pitching depth in the organization plus Pedro Álvarez, the organizational Minor League Player of the Year, and Jack Hannifin, who hit 63 home runs there and turns 28 this year.

▌ Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeEddie Joost, 34Chris Archer, 19
HeightMike Witt, 6’7″Albie Pearson, 5’5″
OPSJack Hannifin, 1.078 (AAA)Denard Span, .514 (A)
HRJack Hannifin, 63 (AAA)Elmer Smith, 0
SBKal Daniels, 55–
WAR (bat)Mike Trout, 5.7Ichiro Suzuki, −1.2
WDwight Gooden, 11–
SVAl Jackson, 29 (A)–
ERATom Morgan, 3.07 (A)Mike Krukow, 7.25 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Tom Morgan, 4.0 (A)Julio Teheran, −0.4

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

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