▌ State of the Franchise

2 straight losing seasons will get a club overlooked. But the Grays are used to it — Pittsburgh to the core. But 2001 was the year Homestead stopped being a project for the future and started making noise in the present, hanging around the playoff race into the stretch run. Nobody was more surprised than the hometown Yinzers.

Most of the credit goes to a 22-year-old catcher. Josh Gibson hit 400/494/818 with 49 homers and a 12.1 WAR — the first .400 season in WBL history, and a declaration of what is possible in the years to come.

This is a blue-collar club with one commandment, the field is the arbiter. That’s led to a fanbase that lives and dies on offense while holding its breath through every start. The lineup mashes. The pitching is a pile of arms eternally waiting to be sorted. Around Gibson sits a genuinely young core — Willie Stargell the ageless exception, but everyone else in their twenties. Pair that with the 6th-best farm system in the league, and there is something brewing here that demands notice.

▌ 2001 Revisited

We told you last spring to expect a step over .500 and, above all, some clarity — on the young infield, on the pile of arms, on who this team actually is. We got 1 of the 3, emphatically.

They finished 77-85, 3rd in the Effa Manley Division, under .500 for a 2nd straight year. So not so much on the first goal. But some questions were indeed answered: Gibson is real. He took the NL Mel Trench Award, a Silver Slugger, and the organizational MVP, at an age when most catchers are still riding buses in the low minors.

He wasn’t alone. Stargell, at 31, declined to acknowledge the calendar — 56 homers and a 1.001 OPS. Rick Reichardt kept grinding (284/355/586 with 39 of his own), Andy Van Slyke played 4 positions, stole 64 bases and led the club in both, and an 18-year-old named Judy Johnson posted a .408 on-base while bouncing around the infield. 5 Grays made the NL All-Star team.

The pitching was something else. 26 arms cycled through the staff. Only Bartolo Colón, who climbed from Double-A to the big club and put up a 2.36 ERA across 50 innings, and the wholly unforeseen Doug Drabek inspired any confidence at all. The deadline help was worse than no help: Juan Marichal posted an 11.40 ERA in a Grays uniform and David Price a 9.00, and neither had been pitching well when Homestead bought them. Which begs the question of why bring them in at all?

The one lasting dividend from that summer was Robb Nen, who turned a thin bullpen into something like a strength. Nen’s contributions weren’t enough to keep them in the Wild Card hunt — but they were enough to raise some hopes for 2002.

▌ Key Changes

In: Logan Hensley (FA); Sherm Lollar (FA)
Out: Nip Winters (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Babe Adams; Logan Hensley; Brook Jacoby; Ricardo Rincón; Rennie Stennett

▌ Best Case for 2002

Colón keeps it up over a full season, Drabek proves last year was no accident, and 1 of the arms buried in the churn does something. That’s all this team needs — not an ace, just a rotation that holds, because the offense will do the rest.

Squint and you can see Gibson being Gibson, Honus Wagner and/or Nap Lajoie finally hitting (and, in doing so, cementing the middle infield for years to come), Stargell aging like wine for 1 more year, and the less heralded bats — Reichardt, Mike Epstein — putting up the numbers nobody outside Pittsburgh believes can continue.

And if that isn’t enough, help may be a phone call away. The clock may start on the crown jewel of their system, SP Clayton Kershaw, sooner than anticipated. Currently the 10th-ranked prospect in all of baseball, Kershaw spent last year striking out 119 in 134 innings of A-ball, and starts 2002 at AAA — skipping AA entirely.

If all of it lands, the Grays contend well ahead of schedule.

▌ Worst Case for 2002

The pitching remains a black box full of fear and pain, and the Grays panic, buying more “veteran arms” to help, whether or not they’re any good. Wagner and Lajoie’s long evaluation returns another year of maybe, but probably not, and Stargell remembers he’s 32.

▌ Key Questions

• Which arms? WHICH arms? WHICH ARMS? This is the franchise’s defining problem, and it is not an evaluation failure: Homestead projects pitching as well as anyone, drafted Kershaw, and recognized Drabek and Colón the moment they produced. What it won’t do is settle a rotation structure in advance, so the pile gets re-auditioned every spring instead of sorted once. Seen from an angle, Francisco Liriano‘s season-ending injury is a gift — it opens a slot with no name attached to it. The challenge comes due later, when Liriano, Corey Kluber, and Tim Lincecum all come back to a staff that may, suddenly, be overly full — it would be a good problem to have.
• Do Wagner and Lajoie hit — and can they hold a glove? Homestead spent a good, ready shortstop in Arky Vaughan to get Lajoie, and 2 years on neither he nor Wagner has delivered: OPS of 664 and 701, doubles power and nothing else, no walks, no average. Wagner is the ache — a genuine freak athlete the fans are pulling for. But. Patience is fraying.
• Does Stargell keep beating the calendar? At 32 he’s old only by the standard of a 2-year-old league, and everyone else is busy shedding bats his age. Homestead is doing the opposite and betting Pops ages well. He earned that with 56 homers, a number he put up in a yard that isn’t supposed to give them away. But, you know, regression is a thing.

▌ Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

2 of those 5 NL All-Stars were Epstein and Reichardt, who between them have 3 selections and roughly no league-wide recognition — nobody scouted either of them, they simply produce, and in this city that is the highest compliment available. The other thing worth noticing is the bottom 2 rows: 9 names listed as starters, 3 of them hurt, and not one of them necessarily reliable.

▌ Talent Ratings

▌ Best In The Minors

Others: P John Candelaria, P David Cone, P Daniel Hudson, P Jeff Wallace, OF Lloyd Waner.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Logan Hensley (51).

The 6th-best system in the league and — for a club whose entire problem is pitching — mercifully full of it. A year ago this list produced the lineup’s newest everyday piece (Johnson, then the No. 3 prospect, now the do-everything IF) and the rotation’s best hope in Colón, who graduated by climbing 3 levels in a single season.

Clayton Kershaw is the headline and has moved again: the reigning organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year is now at Triple-A. Behind him, 20-year-old Catfish Hunter.

The depth is the quiet part. The un-ranked layer is arms too — John Candelaria, Daniel Hudson, Jeff Wallace, 20-year-old David Cone — and the one bat in the group is Lloyd Waner, who hit .336 at Triple-A in the same outfield as his brother Paul, ranked 32nd in baseball. More good problems to have.

▌ Superlatives

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.