Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Rick Honeycutt

Year III Season Preview: Ottawa Mounties

State of the Franchise

team logo

Seven Mounties hit 30 home runs last year. Gary Carter hit 57 from behind the plate, Larry Walker hit 54, Álex Rodríguez hit 46 as a 22-year-old shortstop, and , just for grins, Tim Raines stole 115 bases. And, Ottawa finished 76-86, 4th in the Effa Manley Division, 23 games out.

The pitching is where it all went. The staff gave up 6.35 runs a game — 20th out of 20, in a league that averaged 5.38 — and exactly 2 Mounties who threw 20 innings finished under a 5.00 ERA. That would be Bill Smith and BJ Ryan. Twenty-five different men took the ball.

Here’s the complication: nobody in Ottawa knows how bad that staff actually was. The Mounties spent 2001 in the friendliest hitting environment in history, a bandbox of a park that saw ball after ball land in (and beyond) the bleachers.

The net result: Walker’s .998 OPS were worth 1.3 WAR; Rodríguez’s 46 came attached to a 252 average and 1.2 WAR. The counting stats were enormous; the value mostly wasn’t. And whatever that yard was doing to the hitters, it was doing something inverse to the ERAs too — Ottawa just can’t quantify how much.

Hilltop Park is a different building this year: bigger, deeper in the gaps, with homers harder to come by from both sides. It will cost this lineup a pile of home runs, and they’ve never been happier.

2001 Revisited

Last spring we set the expectation at to not suck, which was either the most honest line we’ve ever printed or the laziest. Ottawa cleared it: 69-85 became 76-86.

The best case wanted Bob Moose, Bob Brown and Roy Halladay back healthy alongside Old Hoss Radbourn, and the young surrounding talent to sort itself out. Halladay held up his end — 195 innings, 15-9, and a 1.26 WHIP that describes his year far better than his 5.17 ERA. However, Moose is still hurt, and Brown is in the minors. Radbourn threw 202 innings of 5.89 ball while surrendering 2.19 homers per 9, which makes him either a near-ace in a launching pad or an innings eater — either way, there’s value there.

The worst case was that the pitching stayed among the worst in the league and none of the potential in Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr or Rodríguez ever surfaced. That landed at about half strength. The pitching wasn’t among the worst — it was the worst. But Rodríguez hit his 46, and Griffey went to Portland in March for Adrián Beltré and a package, which also handed center field to Carlos Beltrán, who promptly went 42-for-45 in steals to complement a deeply respectable .865 OPS.

Johnson is the one who … um … sucked. He threw 100 innings with an 8.16 ERA. His arm is beyond live, but until he can throw strikes, it won’t really matter. Ottawa is determined to give him one more chance — we’ll see how it goes.

One question did get a clean answer. Who is the bullpen? turned out to be Tom Henke, BJ Ryan and Billy Koch, and it went from the roster’s disaster to a relative strength.

Key Changes

In: Nip Winters (FA)

Out:

Opening Day Rookies: Billy Jurges; Wee Willie Keeler; Billy Koch; Dupee Shaw; Nip Winters

Best Case for 2002

The new park is kind to the arms. Halladay’s ERA falls to meet his peripherals, Smith’s 3.77 across 124 innings turns out to be exactly what it looked like, and most of Radbourn’s home run problem stays behind in the old yard. Johnny Podgajny holds the back end. Max Scherzer, who has climbed from 50th on the prospect board to 6th, arrives and is what the ranking says.

And the offense survives the move. This is the league’s most efficient running team, and a big park with deep gaps is built for that. Carter does it again. Rodríguez and Beltrán are 23 and 25 and continue to improve. Roberto Alomar, the organizational MVP and Heart & Soul winner, continues to be the best second baseman in baseball.

Worst Case for 2002

The park changes and the ERAs don’t, which is the answer nobody in Ottawa wants, because it would mean the yard was never the problem.

Walker — dinged 4 separate times last season — misses another 60 games. Rick Monday‘s 272/364/604 turns out to have been mostly architecture, and a 30-homer DH with nowhere to play becomes a 16-homer DH with nowhere to play. Rusty Staub and Beltré stay below average at the corners. A lineup that scored all those runs while getting nothing from either of them scores a good deal fewer now that the fences have moved.

The other thing that could get found out is the handedness. Walker, Monday, Wee Willie Keeler, John Olerud and Staub all hit left-handed, and there is no real right-handed bat on the roster to break the pattern up.

Key Questions

  • Is the staff any good? Halladay’s WHIP and Radbourn’s 8.2 strikeouts per 9 say the top of the rotation is fine. The 25 arms used last year say the depth is not.
  • Big Unit or Broken Unit? Two years in we have an ERA over 8, a strikeout rate that would look good on an ace, and a spring in which he punched out 16.8 per 9. Other clubs have asked; Ottawa has said no every time. The patience is thinner than it ever has been.
  • Where do the extra bats play? Monday refused to stop hitting, forcing his way into a job that didn’t exist: Beltrán has CF, Walker and Raines have the corners, and Monday is now claiming DH. Olerud, Staub, Bob Watson and John Mayberry are stacked up behind him.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CCarter S · E. Gross
1BOlerud
2BAlomar S
SSRodríguez B · Jurges
3BBeltré C
LFRaines C
CFBeltrán B
RFWalker A · Keeler
DHMonday B · Staub D
SPHalladay C · Radbourn F · Smith D · Podgajny · Johnson
RPHenke D (CL) · Ryan C · Koch · Holland · Dempster

Carter hit 57 home runs, posted a 1.062 OPS and led the club in WAR at 22 — the same age as Emil Gross, the prospect backing him up. Shortstop, meanwhile, falls off a cliff the moment Rodríguez wants a day: Billy Jurges is here as a glove and nothing else.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerRF Larry WalkerRF Sam Thompson
Batting EyeCF Rick MondayRF Bob Allison
ContactRF Wee Willie KeelerRF Sam Thompson
Running SpeedCF Carlos Beltrán; RF Wee Willie KeelerLF Ron LeFlore
Base StealingRF Wee Willie Keeler; SP Dupee ShawLF Ron LeFlore; RF Mike Dorgan
IF Defense1B John Olerud2B Jimmy Dykes
OF DefenseRF Larry WalkerRF Jason Heyward
StuffSP Dupee ShawSP Max Scherzer
ControlSP Roy HalladayRP Aaron Slegers
VelocityRP Greg HollandRP Arodys Vizcaíno

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (6)24SPMax Scherzer
2 (29)21SPJim McCormick
3 (92)243BRyon Healy

Others: P Gary Peters, P Mark Eichhorn, IF John Mayberry, IF Joey Cora.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Dupee Shaw (3), Wee Willie Keeler (8).

A year ago this list ran 9 deep and was mostly arms. Scherzer is the one who went the right way, from 50th to 6th. The rest went sideways: Al Orth, ranked 4th in all of baseball last spring, is at Triple-A Montréal; Dan Haren, then 30th, spent last season at A-ball and finished at −1.0 WAR. Jim McCormick is new to the list and Ryon Healy is the only position player on it.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeJohnny Vander Meer, 36Orlando Mercado, 20
HeightRandy Johnson, 6’10”Wee Willie Keeler, 5’4″
OPSGary Carter, 1.062Henry Easterday, 0.544 (AA)
HRGary Carter, 57Mike Dorgan, 2
SBTim Raines, 115
WAR (bat)Gary Carter, 4.5Sam Thompson, -1.1
WRoy Halladay, 15
SVAlex Hardy, 33 (A)
ERAMark Grant, 3.06 (A)Rick Honeycutt, 7.73 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Old Hoss Radbourn, 4.3Dan Haren, -1.0 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001. 200 PA / 75 IP min (SV: all pitchers). Non-WBL levels tagged.

TWIWBL 56.17: Spring Training Notes – Ottawa Mounties

Spring Training Questions

1st and 2nd round picks Max Scherzer and Al Orth will be given the opportunity to make the opening day staff, and the bullpen behind presumed closer Ryan Dempster is wide open.

While Carlos Beltrán goes in as the presumed starter in CF, Ken Griffey Jr will again be given a long look.

First Cuts

Ottawa’s pitching staff is a bit clearer, as there have been some horrible performances. Jesse Crain, Max Scherzer, Kid Camp, Dan Haren, Mike Minor, and Al Orth have all moved to the minors. That leaves only 15 arms in camp, so look for some recalls if others in camp struggle or face injuries. Chuck Taylor, Dupee Shaw, and Dave Gregg have all been pleasant surprises so far.

The starting C job belongs to Gary Carter. But Emil Gross and Brad Ausmus are pushing Jim Stephens for the backup role, with Milt May and Einar Díaz both leaving camp.

1B and 3B are wide open, with Bob Watson‘s fast start (combined with his solid debut last season) making him an early favorite at 1B and Art Devlin and Ryon Healy making arguments at the hot corner. 3B Josh Donaldson and 1Bs John Mayberry, Tino Martinez, and Nick Johnson all hit the minors.

In the middle of the infield, the Mounties have gone with a very aggressive approach, sending Julio Gotay, Everett Scott, Jose Vidro, Bernie Allen, and Dick Bartell all to the minors. That leaves them with only 6 2B/SS, making this another position where later recalls are possible. Jimmy Dykes, Henry Easterday, and Mike Dorgan have all impressed, although this moves seems to indicate more than anything else that Álex Rodríguez will be the opening day SS, even though some believe his eventual position will be at third.

Rick Monday and Sam Thompson have impressed in the OF, with Wee Willie Keeler and Jackie Jensen the only early casualties. This will be a clear focus for Ottawa, as a leading priority for them is sorting through their options in the OF and, perhaps most of all, figuring out what to do with Ken Griffey Jr, who continues to struggle mightily in CF.

Second Cuts

The Mounties had made such deep cuts earlier that only one arm was moved this time, with Rick Honeycutt heading to the minors. That’s not to say the rest have done well: Bob Brown and Bob Moose–both of whom were supposed to contend for rotation spots–have struggled, as has presumed closer Ryan Dempster.

The competition at 1B is thick, prompting Ottawa to send Roy Sievers, who spent most of last season in the WBL, to their minor league camp.

Third Cuts

With only 14 arms in camp, the pitching staff remains unchanged. There is concern over Bob Brown and Old Hoss Radbourn, two of last year’s bright spots, who are struggling mightily this Spring.

John Olerud, Henry Easterday, and Jason Heyward head to AAA. Easterday’s demotion leaves only two SS in camp: Álex Rodríguez and the surprising Mike Dorgan.

Gary Carter is the starting C for sure, but the battle to back him up is running tight between Jim Stephens, Brad Ausmus, and Emil Gross.

The OF is a total mess, with rumors emerging that the Mounties are shopping the immense talent of Ken Griffey, Jr in the hope that a change of scenery might unlock his bat. George Burns is only in camp due to a strong season last year, but he’s on the edge for sure. Rick Monday, Jesse Burkett, Terry Puhl, Sam Thompson, and Bill O’Neill are all hitting well enough to warrant consideration for 2 or 3 reserve spots.

Final Cuts

3B Ryon Healy was tearing up Spring Training for a while, but has since come back to earth. With the arrival of Adrián Beltré, Healy’s future for the start of the season is in the minors, as is CF Bill O’Neill‘s. They are joined by Tino Martinez: 1B was always pretty blocked for the Mounties and Martinez hasn’t shown enough to add his name to the list.

Pedro Ramos had a brief stint with the big league team before heading off to AAA. Dan Collins was placed on IR and Chuck Taylor (also injured) was sent to AAA, preserving the spot on the 40 man roster. That left the Mounties with 3 players to go to get to 30. One was Emil Gross, leaving 3 catchers in camp (4 if you count Mike Dorgan), the second was 2B Jimmy Dykes, who turned a lot of heads with his Spring performance, and the last was veteran OF Jesse Burkett.

Bob Moose, Bob Brown, Ryan Dempster, and Hoss Radbourn were among the few bright spots on the mound for Ottawa last season. They are among the worst performers this Spring, making all of the roster choices all that much more difficult. Brown’s wildness was inescapable, and he was moved to AAA to see if he could work it out. That left a dozen arms in camp, but with so many of them–Atlee Hammaker, Dupee Shaw, Dave Gregg, BJ Ryan–being essentially unproven, the Mounties would like to open the season with a larger staff than most teams will carry.

Gary Carter remains the starting catcher, but Brad Ausmus‘ fantastic Spring moved him ahead of Jim Stephens as Carter’s backup with Stephens heading to the minors along with OFs George Burns and Terry Puhl. The final cut was a hard one, as Art Devlin was among the most impressive Spring performers. But Devlin was likely blocked at Ottawa, so he heads down to AAA to start the season, keeping both Bob Watson and Sam Thompson on the WBL roster to open the season.

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