Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Ted Sizemore

Year III Season Preview: San Francisco Sea Lions

State of the Franchise

team logo

San Francisco won 103 games, the best record in baseball, took the Cum Posey Division, beat Detroit in the Wild Card round, swept Cleveland in the AL Championship, and then … lost the Whirled Series to Brooklyn 4-1. All of it was a surprise — the success, the expectations the success brought, and the loss to the Royal Giants.

Two years ago they were 72-82. The 31-win leap was a combination of arrivals: Turkey Stearnes stepped from the draft into the starting lineup, hitting 357/400/751 with 51 home runs and an 8.0 WAR at 22. Jimmie Foxx, also 22, brought 49 homers, Mickey Cochrane became a 3.8-WAR catcher, and Dick Lundy went from a bench body to 617 plate appearances, 57 steals and a 4.2 WAR. All of that on top of the dependable returns from Rickey Henderson, Reggie Jackson, and Jack Clark.

All of them are back. So are Lefty Grove and Eddie Plank, 28 and 27, who threw 209 and 210 innings — a strikeout ace and a horse who never misses a turn, as well as perhaps the most effective bullpen in the league.

Which leaves San Francisco in an unusual spot for a club that just lost. Nothing is broken. There’s no hole to dig out of, no veteran to move on from, no position that needs solving. They were the best team in baseball and it wasn’t enough. The only available response is to run it back and see.

2001 Revisited

We said last spring that the pitching might prove too mediocre to depend on and that the club would spend the summer tangled in its own logjams, with everything stays really confused as the worst case. That aged badly.

Grove struck out 230 in 208 innings with a 1.15 WHIP and took the AL Brock Rutherford Award. Plank won 20. Bump Hadley, a rookie, posted the staff’s best ERA at 4.10 over 188 innings and finished 2nd for the Brock Rutherford. Those 3 went a combined 54-19. Against a league that gave up 5.38 runs a game, a rotation fronted by 4.40, 4.42 and 4.10 is not mediocre — it’s the best in the league, and the raw numbers only look ordinary if you forget what year it was.

The logjam question resolved itself by everyone hitting. Jack Clark put up 51 homers and 101 walks. Jackson hit 283/394/574. Foxx hit his 49. Royce Clayton posted a .919 OPS in 146 plate appearances filling in around the infield, and Henderson did his thing — 107 walks, 126 SB.

The one thing we asked — on a team full of logjams, who steps forward? — got an unexpected answer: Stearnes arrived, and carried the franchise forward.

Key Changes

In: Trevor Hoffman (POR)
Out: Royce Clayton (POR)

Opening Day Rookies: Charlie Ferguson; Bill Russell

Best Case for 2002

They finish it, starting a dynasty.

That requires health, Stearnes avoiding the sophomore slump, and 2 positional moves panning out: Frank Grant solves 2B for good, and Foxx, no longer to pretend he can serve as a 3B, hits well enough to warrant the DH spot.

That’s it.

Worst Case for 2002

Not a collapse. This roster is too good and too young to collapse. The crueler shape is 90+ wins and another early flight home.

The 2001 environment was inflated — the league gave up 5.38 a game and homers came at a rate nobody had seen — and if it cools, some of the spectacle goes with it.

Then there’s the part nobody can plan around. San Francisco was the overwhelming favorite last October and lost 4 games in 5. A short series doesn’t care that you won 103. Lose another and the question stops being whether this club is good and starts being whether it’s built for the months that matter.

Key Questions

  • Can Stearnes avoid the sophomore slump? 357/400/751, 51 homers, 8.0 WAR, AL Rookie of the Year and the AL CF Silver Slugger, at 22, in a park that suppresses left-handed power. There is no precedent here to reason from and no reason to expect a repeat except that nothing in the line looks lucky.
  • Where does everyone stand up? Foxx’s 3B glove has slipped past usable, which pushes him to 1B and DH, where Jack Clark already lives. Sal Bando takes 3B on a 247/355/503 line that plays fine. That leaves Bobby Bonds — 36 home runs, 47 steals, a real everyday outfielder — with nowhere to start, behind Henderson in LF and Jackson in RF. He is the most valuable spare part in the league and the obvious piece to move if this roster ever discovers it needs something.
  • Is Rod Beck actually the answer? He led the WBL with 41 saves and ran a 1.00 WHIP, and he also posted a 4.88 ERA, because when he gets hit he gets hit hard. Ken Howell was the better pitcher in front of him at 2.79 over 58 innings, and Joe Nathan and Trevor Hoffman are both here now on reputations their recent work hasn’t matched. For a club whose season will come down to 3 or 4 close games in October, the back of this bullpen may matter even more.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CCochrane B · Downing
1BJ. Clark A · Foxx A
2BGrant C
SSLundy B · Russell
3BBando C · Garner
LFHenderson B
CFStearnes S
RFJackson A · Bonds C
DHFoxx A · Bonds C
SPGrove A · Plank B · Hadley B · W. Clark D · Brewer
RPBeck S (CL) · Howell B · Nathan D · Hoffman F · Heilman

One firm note on Jackson: he is the WBL’s career leader in times caught stealing, and he ran himself into 27 outs last year against 36 steals. That is 2 straight seasons under the break-even rate, on a club that scores plenty without him trying. Let’s pull the plug on Run, Reggie Run.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerCF Turkey StearnesRF Frank Howard
Batting Eye1B Jack Clark3B Wayne Gross
Contact2B Frank Grant2B Ted Sizemore
Running SpeedLF Rickey HendersonCF Mookie Wilson; CF Andres Torres
Base StealingLF Rickey Henderson; 2B Frank GrantSP Dick McBride
IF Defense3B Dick Lundy2B Jack A Farrell
OF DefenseRF Bobby BondsCF Mookie Wilson
StuffSP Lefty GroveRP Drew Steckenrider
ControlSP Bob FriendRP Don Dennis
VelocityRP Trevor Hoffman; RP Joe NathanRP Jonathan Broxton

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (30)24SSBill Sweeney
2 (95)19SPJohn Smoltz

Others: IF Jack A Farrell, IF Jed Lowrie, OF Jay Kirke, P Pete Harnisch.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Charlie Ferguson (20).

This is the bill for the 103 wins. 2 ranked names, one a 24-year-old shortstop behind Lundy and the other a 19-year-old arm a long way off, on a club whose Minor League Pitcher of the Year (Red Ehret) and Minor League Player of the Year (Josh Reddick) are both fighting for WBL auditions.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeTommy Bridges, 38John Smoltz, 19
HeightFrank Howard, 6’7″Walt Williams, 5’6″
OPSTurkey Stearnes, 1.151Charlie Ferguson, 0.504 (A)
HRJack Clark, 51Charlie Ferguson, 1 (A)
SBRickey Henderson, 126
WAR (bat)Turkey Stearnes, 8.0Charlie Ferguson, -1.7 (A)
WEddie Plank, 20
SVRod Beck, 41
ERARick Waits, 3.36 (AA)Bob Friend, 7.24
WAR (pit)Lefty Grove, 4.6Tommy Bridges, -0.7

Stats across all levels, 2001. 200 PA / 75 IP min (SV: all pitchers). Non-WBL levels tagged.

TWIWBL 56.13: Spring Training Notes – San Francisco Sea Lions

Spring Training Questions

While Turkey Stearnes will receive a lot of attention during the spring, how roles fall out between Sal Bando, Pedro Guerrero, Dick Lundy, and Roy Hartzell will see some focus as well–someone in that group is likely to end up at SS, and none of them are really naturals at that position.

Injuries

Carl Erskine was a long shot to make the roster; a shoulder injury costing him most of spring training confirmed he will start the season in the minors.

First Cuts

A host of arms were sent down: Red Ehret, Diego Seguí, Frank Barberich, James Shields, Charlie Ferguson and Rube Walberg all hit the minors, clearing quite a bit of space as the Sea Lions try to work out their staff.

Behind the plate, Mickey Cochrane has moved into the lead for the starting spot, with only Jack Warner being sent to the minors. That leaves only 3 full-time backstops in camp, which may mean that San Francisco continues to want to give John Beckwith a longer look. IF Bobby Bragan can also fill in at C if necessary.

With the Sea Lions committed to both John Beckwith and Jimmie Foxx, Don Money, Sid Bream, Bill Sweeney, and Wayne Gross found themselves with tickets to minor league camp, despite performances no worse than Beckwith’s or Foxx’s.

Denny Hocking and Ted Sizemore head to the minors, but that’s not really enough to sort out the middle infield, where Dick Lundy, Ron Hunt, and Roy Hartzell have been quite strong.

The OF is a little clearer as Turkey Stearnes has absolutely blown the cover off the ball, justifying his draft position. Eddie Murphy, Mookie Wilson, Del Unser, Jules Thomas, Darrell Brown, and Patsy Donovan were all sent to the minors while Bob Cerv remains, despite early struggles.

Second Cuts

Dave LaRoche is in danger of being sent to the minors, but for now the Sea Lions staff stays stable.

Just about the only clear message from camp so far is that Turkey Stearnes is for real and, at this point, the 22 year old rookie looks likely to start the season in CF for the Sea Lions. Aside from that … it’s all muddled. Reggie Jackson, Bobby Bonds, and Pedro Guerrero can’t hit a lick; neither Bobby Bragan nor Royce Clayton deserve to stay in camp, but with the team very thin in the MI, both do; Mickey Cochrane is making a play for the starting C spot, but both Brian Downing and Gene Oliver are refusing to claim the backup slot. So it goes.

Teenager John Beckwith heads to AAA for a bit more seasoning, and IF Jack Farrell heads down as well.

Third Cuts

Mickey Cochrane has edged ahead of the struggling Gene Oliver and even more struggling Brian Downing as the likely opening day C for the Sea Lions.

IFs Bobby Bragan and Royce Clayton were sent to AAA, but San Francisco still has some issues to sort out on the infield: too many 1B are mashing the ball (Jimmie Foxx, Jack Clark, Jason Giambi), Roy Hartzell, who finished last season as the presumptive starter at SS, has struggled, and both Phil Garner and Dick Lundy are playing well enough to demand more time.

Walt Williams has hit well, but the Sea Lions OF is pretty crowded and the trio of Frank Howard, Bob Cerv, and Josh Reddick have all hit better, so Williams is off to AAA.

It’s not clear what San Francisco does here: rookie phenom Turkey Stearnes has exceeded all expectations and looks set to play CF, leaving Rickey Henderson, Pedro Guerrero, Bobby Bonds, and Reggie Jackson competing for the corner OF and DH spots.

Final Cuts

Jair Jurrjens had raised some eyebrows in an attempt to make the roster as a swing starter, but it was always unlikely, and a couple late rough outings sealed his fate as Jurrjens heads to AAA. Josh Reddick was sent down along with slick fielding SS Eddie Miller. Miller’s demotion answers several other questions: Dick Lundy looks to be the everyday SS, with Roy Hartzell his backup, clearing the way for Sal Bando at 3B.

RP Dave LaRoche was sent to AAA along with Carl Erskine, which may virtually solidify the pitching staff for the Sea Lions, leaving only 13 arms in camp. Brian Downing continues to look good enough for the WBL until he’s actually given a chance: he’ll head to AAA, with catching duties for San Francisco falling to Mickey Cochrane and Gene Oliver in a likely platoon. Ron Hunt does have a knack for getting clipped by pitches, but that’s just not enough to justify a roster spot: he’ll start the year in AAA as well.

Jim Devlin was the final arm moved out of camp.

Jason Giambi was sent down despite his obvious power, as were Bob Cerv and Matt Holliday. Cerv refused his demotion, and was made a free agent.

That made the final cut a choice between OF Frank Howard, incumbent 2B Jimmy Bloodworth (who has struggled all Spring), and light hitting IF Roy Hartzell (which would leave the Sea Lions without a real reserve at SS). Given the OF depth on the roster, it wasn’t terribly surprising that Howard was the final cut from camp.

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén