Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Trea Turner

Season Review: Birmingham Black Barons

84 - 71, .541 pct.
2nd in Marvin Miller Division, 1 game behind.
Lost in Wild Card Round to Detroit

Overall

The media darling of the year: from a dozen games below .500 and clearly selling top end talent to a one game playoff with Portland to determine the division title. Birmingham navigated the trade periods with a skill unmatched in the league, adding and removing talent in a way that seemed to always hit the right balance, leaving the team both better and better positioned for the future.

Still, unless some serious issues with the offense are resolved, it’s not clear how far the superlative pitching can actually carry them next season.

What Went Right

Honestly, not a lot in terms of offense. Eddie Mathews and Hank Aaron showed the potential to be stars, but at the end of the day, had fairly pedestrian seasons, especially for their positions. Bob Nieman was a pleasant surprise, and Cupid Childs and Jim Pagliaroni both came in late in the season (Childs from the minors, Paglioaroni via trade) and did well at 2B and C respectively.

The Black Barons seemed to survive on always having someone who was hot enough to carry them: 3B Pie Traynor started off mashing the ball before fading dramatically at the end of the season; both Herman Long and Curtis Granderson took their turns, and Adrián González, whose overall numbers look pretty anemic, was actually quite good for Birmingham after a horrid start to the season with Chicago.

Most of what went right for Birmingham happened on the mound, where Alejandro Peña and mid-season acquisition Andy Pettitte were magnificent, combining with Scott Baker, Vic Willis, and Greg Maddux to form a very impressive rotation, rivalling Baltimore’s in quality top to bottom.

After being named the closer, Juan Rincón did an excellent job, and Harley Young, Steve Bedrosian, and Bruce Chen were solid getting to Rincón.

But you really can’t say enough about Peña and Pettitte, who accounted for nearly 400 quality innings over the course of the season.

Finally, see the Transactions section: somehow Birmingham got rid of their two all-stars as well as some other top end talent, and got better.

ALL STARS
2B Tom Herr; SP Tim Hudson

What Went Wrong

In summary: nobody was great, and few were good.

Lots of players were given plenty of opportunity: Traynor, Al Schweitzer, Troy Tulowitzki, Omar Infante, and Ginger Beaumont all had at least 30 games to show their stuff, and none did anything of note, leaving the MI and one OF position up in the air for far too long.

Hmmm … not much went wrong on the mound. Carlos Diaz only lasted 14 games as closer and Warren Spahn did quite poorly in about 60 innings, indicating that for all his talent, another year in the minors may be needed.

Transactions

March

None

June

P Tim Hudson to San Francisco for P Rube Melton, OF Derrick May & 3rd Round Pick {Gary Matthews}

Given Hudson’s immediate implosion, seems fine, although given Birmingham’s resurgence, perhaps he would have been “the difference.”

P Hoyt Wilhelm & P Dick Rudolph to Chicago for OF Melky Cabrera, P A. Rube Foster, 1B Adrián González & 2nd Round Pick {Trea Turner}

Seems like a win long term for sure, and even this year, González was key for the Black Sox.

2B Tom Herr to New York Black Yankees for IF Reddy Mack, OF Bill Buckner, P Heathcliff Slocumb, OF Charlie Keller, 1B Moose Skowron & 10th Round Pick

It’s a lot of bodies for sure, but it’s also not clear any of them have a better year than Herr did, and usually the team that gets the best player wins the trade. So, unknown.

IF Frank Isbell to Brooklyn for OF Curt Flood, IF Manny Trillo & 6th Round Pick {Steve Avery}

All depends on how Flood develops, but seems fine, especially with the González deal earlier.

July

SS Woody English & 3B Candy Jim Taylor to Memphis for C Jim Pagliaroni & 4th Round Pick {Adam Kennedy}

Pagliaroni was great for Birmingham; even with that, Taylor may end up being a star, so they may have overpaid here.

C Dale Murphy, P A. Rube Foster, 4th Round Pick & 2nd Round Pick to Kansas City for P Andy Pettitte

It would be a shock of Birmingham didn’t regret this in a few years. It was still a good trade, as without Pettitte, they never make the postseason.

Looking Forward

SP

Pitching should continue to be the hallmark of this club. Even with Peña and Pettitte aging out at some point, a future rotation of Greg Maddux, Vic Willis, Sam Streeter, Jim Whitney, and Warren Spahn looks quite impressive.

RP

Juan Rincón is the presumed closer, and even if both Bruce Chen and Harley Young prove to be short-term solutions, both Steve Bedrosian and minor leaguer Rick Camp look capable of anchoring a deep bullpen into the future.

C

Right now this is Jim Pagliaroni and Gene Tenace, but it’s an area of long term need.

1B

There is a transition here from Frank McCormick to Adrián González to the potential of Nate Colbert. None of those project as stars, so an upgrade could be in order.

2B

Cupid Childs filled in well for Tom Herr, but there really isn’t a long term solution here.

3B

The question is if Eddie Mathews is solid, or if he develops into a star, but this is Mathews’ position.

SS

Herman Long was impressive, but hit a very deep slump at the end of the season. For now, he will continue with Troy Tulowitzki as his backup.

LF

This is all very patchwork: Bob Nieman for now with some constant mixture of Joe Rudi, Billy Southworth, and perhaps eventually, Alfonso Soriano.

CF

Curtis Granderson is good enough for now, but eventually they will have to figure out what to do with him and Curt Flood.

RF

See the comment about Mathews, but there is more optimism that Hank Aaron becomes a star.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

With 6 selections in the first four rounds, Birmingham hopes to restock its system with offensive production. They start with a franchise pick that may fill an areas of need long term, drafting C Joe Torre. Their 2nd round pick’s future is less clear, but whether Trea Turner ends up on the infield or CF, he should help in a year or two. Gary Matthews, their first of two picks in the 3rd round, should arrive earlier, but doesn’t have Turner’s ceiling.

At some point, long term potential just starts to overshadow concerns about fit: that was the case with José Cruz, with the 22 year old joining Birmingham with their 2nd pick in the 3rd round. Cruz may never develop enough power to be a star, but he has a pure stroke and has been on the board far longer then he should have.

The Black Barons used their final franchise exception on MI Adam Kennedy with their first pick in the fourth round and picked up a late bloomer, 27 year old SP Bob Smith, later in the round.

Rounds 5-8

The Black Barons have decent depth, so they can really take the best available talent. At some point, they need to pickup a 1B and a C, but in the 6th round it was lefty Steve Avery followed by 2B Marcus Giles–Giles is just too much better than the rest of their franchise selections to risk losing. George H. Stone was their 7th round selection and C Greg Olson their 8th.

Rounds 9-12

P Bill James, P Kerry Ligtenberg; P Eddie Solomon; P Kid Madden; 1B Del Bissonette.

Season Review: Philadelphia Stars

56 - 98, .363 pct.
5th in Effa Manley Division, 30 games behind.

What Went Right

Not a helluva lot.

CF Willie Davis, 1B Ted Kluszewski, OF George Hendrick, and 3B Scott Rolen were all solid, with Hendrick pushing into a consistent starting role by mid-season. Davis and Rolen were the only players with decent WAR (3.0 for Davis, 2.9 for Rolen). Only Kluszewski (25) and Buck Freeman (21) had more than 20 homeruns, and Klu led the team in RBI’s with 63 and Freeman in R with 71: scoring runs was just a struggle for the Stars all season long.

Three players made strong impressions late in the season led by a fair distance by OF Aaron Judge who managed a .900 OPS in 130 PA. IFs Juan Samuel and Roger Peckinpaugh impressed as well.

Rico Carty started strong, leading the lead in doubles the first few months of the season, but collapsed towards the end–that, combined with his age, puts Carty’s starting position (but not his roster spot) in question.

Ray Collins and Steve Carlton were decent enough in the rotation and the only pitchers with over 2 WAR (Collins 2.9, Carlton 2.3). They were the only pitchers with 30 starts and, even more depressingly, the only pitchers with more than 10 innings and ERA’s under 5.00.

ALL STAR SELECTIONS
P Ron Reed; 3B Scott Rolen

What Went Wrong

Everything else? The middle infield was pretty horrible all year, and nobody really could break out of thoroughly mediocre performances.

Carty ended weak, falling off a cliff on the final months of the season.

And the pitching was thoroughly horrid, from only Robin Roberts having a .500 record (5-5) among the starters to closer Bob Howry having 25 saves, but also getting rocked with an ERA over 6. Injuries didn’t help: Jaret Wright (probably the 3rd most effective starter), Roberts, and Pete Alexander (who was clearly overmatched by the WBL level at age 21, but also has a ton of promise) all missed significant time on the mound.

Trade Evaluations

March

3B Mike Schmidt, SP Cole Hamels to New York Black Yankees for C Bill Dickey, OF Aaron Judge, 1B Prince Fielder

Not bad. Moving Schmidt opened up room for Rolen and Judge looks like the real deal. Dickey was horrible, but at 22 is still a great prospect. Certainly, the loss of Hamels hurt, but he didn’t last with New York, being shipped to Miami in a separate deal.

June

RP Ron Reed to Cleveland for OF Andrew Payne, P Hardie Henderson, OF Darrell Miller, OF Gibby Brack

Reed was an all star for Philadelphia, but fell apart for the Spiders. Henderson looks good, and both Payne and Brack may see WBL time at some point.

July

OF Gavvy Cravath & 2nd Round Pick to Portland for 1B/3B Harmon Killebrew & 1st Round Pick {Dave Stieb}
P Rheal Cormier & 4th Round Pick to New York Black Yankees for P LaTroy Hawkins, P Fritz Coumbe, IF Mike Bordick & 3rd Round Pick {Bill Gatewood}

The Cravath deal was excellent: he was leaving after the season, and Killebrew is a great prospect and the pick turned into one of the better pitching prospects in the draft in Stieb. The other one is a little meh: Coumbe made the WBL by the end of the season, but was unimpressive, although Hawkins has a very live arm.

Looking Forward

SP

Carlton, JM Ward, and Alexander should eventually be a good top 3. They need more depth, both at WBL and throughout the organization.

RP

Howry’s job is in danger, but there are no obvious options. Brad Kilby was good at AAA and Scott Garrelts shows some promise.

C

The job is, once again, Dickey’s to lose, but perhaps another year in the minors is in store for him. If so, this is likely Mike Scoscia and Sherm Lollar splitting time once again.

1B

This is Klu’s until age catches up with him. Cecil Cooper dominated at AAA, and should see some time, especially if Carty’s decline continues.

2B

The Stars would love to see Chase Utley own this, but he’s struggled mightily so far. Juan Samuel‘s end of season heroics have earned him a close look in spring training.

3B

Rolen has this locked down, but the team will need to do something once Killebrew is ready, although Killer is probably more suited to 1B/DH in any case.

SS

Peckinpaugh will get a chance here, but again it’s a spot where the Stars need some more talent, especially if Jimmy Rollins doesn’t show more.

LF

Sherry Magee looks solid here.

CF

This may be the most interesting choice in the organization. Davis was their best player, and 21 year old Richie Ashburn was probably their best prospect. Both are excellent defensively, so the odds are a trade is the most likely solution.

RF

Judge seems to have this locked down, but Bobby Abreu will see some time here as well.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

Philadelphia led off the draft by selecting SP Bullet Joe Rogan, probably the single most WBL-ready prospect available. Rogan should step into the rotation right away. Their 2nd pick in the 1st round was harder, coming down to the future possibilities of IF Trea Turner and more help on the mound. They went with the latter, opting for young RHP Dave Stieb. They continued stockpiling arms, picking up teenager Bruce Hurst and 21 year old Bill Gatewood in the 3rd round.

With Gatewood, the Stars have made four selections, using all four of their franchise exemptions, meaning the rest of their picks for this draft will be players with some historical connection to their franchise.

Rounds 5-8

The Stars will be focusing on adding arms, although IF depth would be fine as well. Since they are out of exceptions, these will all be franchise selections, limiting some of the options. Their picks included OF Milt Thompson (5th), P Odúbel Herrera (6th), OF Rhys Hoskins (7th), and IF Nux James (8th).

Rounds 9-12

At the tail end of the draft, the Stars picked up a reserve C (Todd Pratt), P Chris Archer; P Mélido Pérez; and P Jim McElroy.

TWIWBL 53.3: The Rookie Draft

These are covered in the Season Reviews as well, but figured a list of the first three rounds of the draft would be of interest.

Round One

  1. P Bullet Joe Rogan (Philadelphia)
  2. OF Vladimir Guerrero (Miami)
  3. P Hilton Smith (Kansas City)
  4. P Clayton Kershaw (Homestead)
  5. P Max Scherzer (Ottawa)
  6. OF Carl Yastrzemski (Memphis)
  7. OF Turkey Stearnes (San Francisco)
  8. OF Ichiro Suzuki (Los Angeles)
  9. P Tom Glavine (Indianapolis)
  10. IF Ed Delahanty (Brooklyn)
  11. IF Edgar Martinez (Houston)
  12. P David Cone (New York Black Yankees)
  13. P Zack Greinke (House of David)
  14. C Joe Torre (Birmingham)
  15. P Dave Stieb (Philadelphia)
  16. OF Ralph Kiner (Homestead)
  17. OF Al Simmons (Brooklyn)
  18. P Jacob deGrom (Chicago)
  19. C Bill Freehan (Detroit)
  20. OF Chuck Klein (Portland)

Supplemental Round 1

  1. P Jon Matlack (Portland)

Round Two

  1. OF Hugh Duffy (Portland)
  2. OF Julio Rodríguez (Miami)
  3. OF Earl Averill (Kansas City)
  4. P Tim Lincecum (Homestead)
  5. P Al Orth (Ottawa)
  6. P Bill Lee (House of David)
  7. 3B Judy Johnson (Homestead)
  8. OF Babe Herman (Los Angeles)
  9. P Jim Maloney (Indianapolis)
  10. P Dazzy Vance (Brooklyn)
  11. OF César Cedeño (Houston)
  12. C Darren Daulton (House of David)
  13. 1B Cody Bellinger (House of David)
  14. P Matt Morris (Kansas City)
  15. P Walter Ball (Portland)
  16. P Howard Ehmke (Cleveland)
  17. P Josh Beckett (Miami)
  18. 2B Trea Turner (Birmingham)
  19. 3B Matt Chapman (Indianapolis)
  20. P Jack Quinn (Kansas City)

Round Three

  1. P Bruce Hurst (Philadelphia)
  2. OF Brett Gardner (New York Black Yankees)
  3. IF Carlos Baerga (Kansas City)
  4. IF Justin Turner (Cleveland)
  5. 1B Elbie Fletcher (Ottawa)
  6. SS Dobie Moore (Memphis)
  7. OF Gary Matthews (Birmingham)
  8. IF Marcus Semien (Los Angeles)
  9. P Bob Ewing (Indianapolis)
  10. OF George Selkirk (Brooklyn)
  11. C Will Smith (Houston)
  12. P Bill Gatewood (Philadelphia)
  13. OF Roy Thomas (Miami)
  14. OF José Cruz (Birmingham)
  15. P Harry Staley (Houston)
  16. IF Garry Templeton (Houston)
  17. P Dan Haren (Ottawa)
  18. OF Lenny Dykstra (Chicago)
  19. P Frank Lary (Detroit)
  20. OF Topsy Hartsel (Baltimore)

TWIWBL 53.1: THE DRAFT – The Preview

Alright, here it comes … the first year player draft in the WBL is a big deal, especially this year as a mixture of additional talent and the dissolution of some independent leagues has really elevated the talent pool.

The goal was to make the first 5 or 6 rounds all contain potentially worthy players.

Each team may make up to 4 “free” picks, meaning they can select anyone remaining in the game. For the rest of their selections, they are limited to players historically attached (meaning, a significant amount of their playing time) to their franchises.

Here are the teams, listed in the draft order, and their number of picks per round in the draft for the first 10 rounds (rounds 11 and 12 are unchanged, with each team having 1 pick):

Team12345678910Tot
PHI2211111112
MCG121211111
KCM13111111113
HOM2221111114
OTT1122111112
MEM11131111113
SFS1111118
LAA111212111114
IND121122111115
BRK21111121112
HOU11311111113
NYY1111112111
HOD131221113
BBB11222111215
POR1231111113
CLE11111111111
NYG3211110
CAG112111110
DET1111111110
BAL121111110
Portland also has a supplemental pick after Round One for the loss of Gavvy Cravath via free agency.

A few things jump out from that:

  • San Francisco clearly made a mess of the season, finishing both with the 7th worst record on the season and having traded away most of their draft capital in deals in June when they still looked to have a shot to contend.
  • Birmingham, tied with Indianapolis for the most picks, did so while still making the playoffs.
  • Kansas City, Homestead, and the House of David each have 4 picks over the first 2 rounds.

Here’s how the AI sees the top twenty prospects, along with the franchises that are eligible to draft them.

#NamePosAgeFranchises
1Bullet Joe RoganSP27KCM
2Vladimir GuerreroOF19LAA,OTT
3Ed Delahanty2B20PHI
4Al OrthSP23NYY, PHI
5Mickey HughesSP20
6Hugh DuffyOF20BBB
7Kyle TuckerOF18HOU
8Edgar Martínez3B20OTT
9Clayton KershawSP18BRK
10Chuck KleinOF22PHI
11Doc NewtonSP21
12Joe TorreC20BBB,KCM
13Tim LincecumSP21NYG
14Ralph KinerOF19HOM
15Ichiro SuzukiOF28OTT
16Steve BrodieOF20BAL
17Ben TincupSP19PHI
18Carlos Baerga3B18CLE
19Earl AverillOF24CLE
20Josh BeckettSP20MEM.MCG

That is, of course, a really odd list in places (Mickey Hughes, anyone?). So here are the next 20, in no particular order and according to me.

#NamePosAgeFranchises
1Trea Turner2B20OTT
2Darren DaultonC18PHI
3Ad GumbertSP18HOD
4Julio RodríguezOF19OTT
5Joe Cunningham1B21KCM
6Lenny DykstraOF20PHI,LAA
7Aubrey Huff3B21MCG
8Noah SyndergaardSP21LAA
9Matt MorrisSP21KCM
10George SelkirkOF24NYY
11Walter BallSP26CAG
12César CedeñoOF17HOU
13Jimmy Dykes2B20SFS
14Charlie FergusonSP19PHI
15Zack GreinkeSP19HOU,BRK
16Bryan HarveyRP22LAA
17Pink HawleySP20HOM
18Jack KramerSP18BAL
19Jim MaloneySP19IND
20Max ScherzerSP23OTT,DET

Results for each team are listed in their Season Review pages, coming soon.

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