Month: July 2021 Page 2 of 4

TWIWBL 12.0: Series X Notes

On July 20, 2021

May 13th

Performance

Baltimore pulled off a very impressive sweep of the New York Black Yankees, moving into first place in the Cum Posey Division. It leaves the Black Yankees–who at one point seemed likely to run away from the league–with the 3rd best record in the league, behind both Baltimore (26-16) and Portland (27-15).

Reggie Jackson may be the most surprising offensive performer so far, leading the league in both BA and OBP. Babe Ruth is still the most impressive single performer, and his teammate Lou Gehrig is now second in the league in SLG behind Ruth.

The WBL is not a pitcher’s league at this point: the potent offenses reduce the number of decisions earned by starting pitchers (only 2 have won 6 games despite most starters having 8 or 9 starts) and an ERA below 3.50 or so is quite exceptional.

Leading SP: Walter Johnson (POR) 6-0, 3.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.0 WAR; Gerrit Cole (LAA) 6-2, 4.09 ERA; Camilo Pascual (MCG) 4-1, 2.26 ERA; Don Drysedale (BRK) 4-1, 2.41 ERA; Ron Guidry (NYY) 4-3, 3.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 76 K; Lefty Grove (SFS) 4-1, 3.33 ERA, 64 K; CC Sabathia 5-2, 2.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 1.9 WAR.

Leading RP: Johan Santana (POR) 0-1, 3.18 ERA, 14 Sv; Terry Adams (CLE) 0-1, 1.98 ERA, 10 Sv; Ron Reed (PHI) 0-2, 3.05 ERA, 2 Sv, 8 H; Craig Kimbrel (KAN) 1-1, 2.37 ERA, 7 H; Aroldis Chapman (MCG) 0-2, 0.00 ERA, 9 Sv; Joe Beggs (MEM) 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 4 Sv; Jonathan Papelbon (MEM) 0-1, 1.37 ERA, 3 Sv, 2 H, 0.76 WHIP; Brian Wilson (NYG) 0-0, 2.25 ERA, 3 Sv, 0.83 WHIP.

Leading Batters: Reggie Jackson (SFS) 387/506/664; Buster Posey (NYG) 382/452/639, 33 R, 2.5 WAR; Lou Gehrig (NYY) 358/462/692; Babe Ruth (NYY) 357/451/732, 15 HR, 43 R, 2.7 WAR; Rico Carty (PHI) 358/419/562, 16 2B; Johnny Callison (NYG) 277/331/540, 13 2B; Terry Puhl 252/324/412, 5 3B; Louis Santop (CLE) 293/337/439, 5 3B; Curt Blefary (BAL) 299/410/675, 13 HR; Eric Davis (NYY) 296/337/537, 48 RBI; Doug Rader (LAA) 313/360/506, 45 RBI; Rickey Henderson (SFS) 275/442/377, 40 BB, 36 SB.

League Standings | League Statistics

Streaks

The Black Yankees’ Thurman Munson has the longest active hitting streak at 16 games.

Getting on base is, evidently, much easier than getting a hit: there are four active on-base streaks, led by Philadelphia‘s Rico Carty (20 games), Los Angeles‘ Don Buford (19 games), Ottawa‘s Carlos Delgado (18 games), and Indianapolis‘ Oscar Charleston (17 games).

Rickey Henderson has swiped his last 25 bases. Some notable pinch-hitting streaks are alive as well: Indianapolis’ Johnny Bench has come up with a hit in his last 3 pinch-hit appearances, and both Cleveland‘s Ron Blomberg and Philadelphia’s George Hendrick have hit homeruns in their last 2 pinch-hitting appearances.

Bench has been on fire, hitting 365/468/769 over his last 16 games.

On the mound, Baltimore’s Ned Garvin‘s hitless inning streak ended at 9.1 and Camilo Pascual‘s scoreless streak at 19 innings. Whit Wyatt (CLE) hasn’t allowed a run in his last 16 innings.

At the team level, Houston is 8-2 over their last 10 games and Birmingham has managed only 3 victories in their last 10. Baltimore has won 4 straight, and both Chicago and Indianapolis have lost 3 in a row.

Series Results

Series Sweeps

Baltimore over New York Black Yankees

Taking 3 out of 4 in Series X

Detroit over Brooklyn
Los Angeles over Chicago
Houston over Philadelphia
Kansas City over Indianapolis
New York Gothams over Memphis
House of David over Ottawa

Series Splits

Birmingham v Homestead
Cleveland v Portland
Miami v San Francisco

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – Catchers

By mknn

On July 19, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

{ The All-Star game is about a month away. We’ll post occasional articles about the contenders for participation in the mid-season classic. These are written “as of now,” so the final selections may vary dramatically, but hopefully these will add to the ongoing flavor of the league. }

#AL Catchers: Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

The New York Gothams‘ Buster Posey is the clear class of this group, hitting 377/451/623, scoring 35 runs, and already accumulating a 2.6 WAR on the season. That’s easy. So is Baltimore‘s Curt Blefary, second in the league in HR with 13 while hitting 280/392/632 with 34 RBI.

Behind him, it gets a little tougher. The House of David‘s Elrod Hendricks deserves consideration at 263/323/483. Kansas City‘s Ted Simmons (296/330/444) and Houston‘s Jim O’Rourke (254/342/433) have been solid offensively, but neither have really played enough and O’Rourke spends a lot of his time at other positions.

Hendricks has a CERA of 4.06, which helps his case, but has only thrown out 6 of 42 base-stealers, which doesn’t. But nothing else really stands out defensively: Ottawa‘s Emil Gross has thrown out 37.5% of opposing runners, but hasn’t hit enough to merit consideration.

Both I and the AI make the fairly easy choices: Posey, Blefary, and Hendricks.

#NL Catchers: Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

The choices get harder in the NL.

Johnny Bench of Indianapolis has seen a recent hot streak take him to 289/394/578 with 9 homeruns. And that might not be enough to start, as Portland‘s Joe Mauer is hitting 356/456/625. But the two of them have to be selected.

That leaves one slot with several worthy candidates. Even if you eliminate Cleveland‘s John Ellis (299/352/608) and Philadelphia‘s Sherm Lollar (263/374/513) for not having played quite enough, you have to pick between Homestead‘s Josh Gibson (321/410/473) and the Black Yankees‘ Thurman Munson (303/345/508). WAR favors Gibson by quite a bit, 1.6 to 1.1.

Turning to the defensive statistics, Mauer has thrown out 35.5% of would-be base stealers, but he’s already in. Defensively, Munson has an edge, helped by Gibson’s 9 errors, but it’s not as big of an edge as you may think. Cleveland’s Louis Santop may be the best defensive catcher in the league, but his offense–which is quite respectable with a 314/354/488 slash line–is a notch behind these others, and splitting time with Ellis has kept him off the field a bit too much.

So, once again, we’re in agreement with the AI: Mauer, Bench, and Gibson.

Series X Featured Game: Birmingham Black Barons @ Homestead Grays

By mknn

On July 18, 2021

In Featured Games, Game Recaps

This one is a little different …

Birmingham‘s Alejandro Pena came into the game on a bit of a roll, having improved his numbers to a record of 3-3 and an ERA of 3.35. Homestead‘s Corey Kluber was just trying to stay in the league, with a record of 0-6 and an ERA over 6.

Kluber lasted only 2 innings before injury forced him from the game. He had given up one unearned run when, in the top of the first, an error by Mike Epstein allowed Tom Herr to score. Carlos Zambrano who, if anything, has been hit harder than Kluber, relieved him.

Pena allowed a run in the bottom of the 3rd and the bottom of the 4th on a sacrifice fly from Andrew McCutcheon and a bases-loaded walk to Honus Wagner that scored Josh Gibson.

So, 2-1 Homestead after 4 innings.

And then … that was it.

Pena put in 8 innings, allowing 6 hits and the 2 runs (only 1 was earned), and the combination of Kluber, Zambrano, Billy Pierce, and Michael Jackson had kept Birmingham from scoring again.

Homestead’s closer, Josh Lindblom, came into the game in the top of the 9th to close out the impressive win … and, after getting the first out, gave up a single to Billy Southworth, a walk to Troy Tulowitzki, a single to Herr, and a sacrifice fly to Frank McCormick, tying the game.

And then … that was it. For a long time, that was it.

For Birmingham, Wilhelm added 2 more innings, closer Carlos Diaz followed with 2 more, and Larry Benton added 3. For Homestead, Kent Tekulve added 2.2 and then Hal Carlson stepped in with the bullpen deeply depleted and delivered 4 crucial innings.

All scoreless. Through the 12th, scoreless. Through the 16th, scoreless. Through the 18th, scoreless.

And then … that was it.

Earl Hamilton had followed Carlson, and held Birmingham scoreless for 1.2 innings. He took the mound in the top of the 19th, and induced a groundout from Hank Aaron.

But then the floodgates opened: Omar Infante doubled, Southworth singled, and Tulowitzki broke the tie with an RBI single. Herr singled to load the bases, and McCormick walked. Then the Black Barons really took control, with Frank Isbell doubling home 2 more runs.

With Hamilton clearly gassed, the Grays called on Ray Brown, who got out of the inning, but not before allowing RBI singles to Gene Tenace, Eddie Mathews, and Infante.

So, inning after inning of no offense and then, in the top of the 19th, 7 runs for Birmingham.

It was enough: Warren Spahn retired the side in order and the Black Barons left with the win, 9-2. Honestly, Birmingham deserved to win much earlier: they banged out 28 hits during the 19 innings, with Herr and Isbell each going 5-for-10, Aaron adding 4 hits, and Infante and Southworth 3 hits apiece. But 24 of their 28 hits were singles: the Black Barons left a whopping 23 batters on base in the game.

Homestead had only 10 hits on the day, with 3 of them coming off the bat of Rick Reichardt. All 10 were singles, and the Grays had their own struggles with timing base knocks, leaving 14 runners on base.

A remarkable, and totally unexpected pitching performance from Birmingham. Even with that, both teams bullpens are likely to suffer for a few games from this one.

BBB 9 (Spahn 2-4) @ HOM 2 (Hamilton 0-1; Jackson 2 H; Lindblom 2 BS) [19 Innings]
HRs: none
Box Score

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – NL Relievers

By mknn

On July 17, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

There are, of course, a lot of candidates in relief. Many of these will fall off the radar, as a single bad outing is likely to take them out of all-star contention.

Johan Santana of Portland has been the leading reliever all season, with 14 saves. His ERA has taken a recent hit, but it still sits a highly respectable 3.18. Terry Adams of the Cleveland Spiders has 11 saves to go along with an 0-1 record and a 1.84 ERA, and merits strong consideration.

A trio of closers sit immediately behind Santana: San Francisco‘s Rod Beck (10 saves and a 0.00 ERA, but only 9 innings pitched), Miami‘s Aroldis Chapman (2-0, 9 saves, also yet to be scored upon), and Brooklyn‘s Watty Clark (2-1, 2.51 ERA). Clearly, if Beck or Chapman continue to not allow a run, they’re in.

Philadelphia‘s Bob Howry is more problematic: his 10 saves look strong, but his 0-2 record and, even more, 6.59 ERA probably rule him out of the game. Howry’s teammate, Ron Reed, may have a stronger case: 0-2, 2 saves, 8 holds, and a 3.13 ERA.

The Black Yankees‘ David Robertson (2-1, 2 holds, 2.28 ERA) and Ralph Citarella (1-2, 1 save, 7 holds, 3.71 ERA) and Cleveland’s Chuck Porter (3-2, 2 holds) have all been impressive in setup roles. Add Portland’s Elmer Brown (2-2, 2 saves, 5 holds, 2.37 ERA) and Brooklyn’s Erig Gagne (0-1, 1 save, 5 holds, 2.45 ERA) into the mix, as well as San Francisco’s Ken Howell, who is 1-1 with a save and 2 holds and a sparkling 1.47 ERA.

For higher usage relievers, another Philadelphia Star, Rheal Cormier should get some attention, as he has put up a 4-0 record with 1 save and 4 holds, a 2.33 ERA and a stellar 1.14 WHIP. San Francisco’s Charlie Root is also 3-0, with a 3.33 ERA and an even better 1.07 WHIP.

Indianapolis‘ Rob Dibble just needs more innings: he has been virtually unhittable so far, sitting at 2-1 with 6 saves and a 1.55 ERA along with a 1.08 WHIP. But that’s only across 12 innings of work.

The AI likes Cormier, Stan Coveleski (Cleveland; 3-0, 2 holds, 2.81 ERA), Lefty James (Indianapolis; 3-1, 2.52 ERA), and Robertson.

Right now, my five would be Santana, Adams, Chapman, Cormier, and … Dibble.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – AL Relievers

By mknn

On July 17, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

There are, of course, a lot of candidates in relief. Many of these will fall off the radar, as a single bad outing (or injury) is likely to take them out of all-star contention.

Tom Henke of the Ottawa Mounties has 10 saves, with a 3.29 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP, easily the AL leading closer at this point.

Detroit‘s Mike Henneman (0-2, 2.89 ERA) and Kansas City‘s Jeff Pfeffer (4-1, 3.05 ERA) have 7 saves each (as does the House of David‘s Tom Niedenfuer, who was arguably having a better year before injuring his shoulder) and either could sneak in, with Pfeffer’s record perhaps giving him an edge. Memphis‘ Joe Beggs has only 4 saves, but he has yet to give up a run: clearly if that continues, he deserves serious consideration.

Baltimore‘s Don Bessent (0-1, 6 saves, 1.42 ERA) is the only other closer with decent usage with a WHIP below 1, at 0.87 (Baltimore has actually split closing opportunities between Bessent and Bob Miller, but Bessent has had more saves and save opportunities–Miller sits at 1-0 with 3 saves and 2 holds and a 3.29 ERA, but a similar 0.95 WHIP).

In addition to Beggs, the Memphis bullpen offers Jonathan Papelbon, who has a 1.35 ERA and a sparkling WHIP of 0.80 to go along with an 0-1 record, 3 saves, and 2 holds. Setting up Henke, Ottawa’s Gary Lavelle is 2-1 with 1 save and 2 holds and a 1.96 ERA and teammate Ted Bowsfield is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA.

Kansas City may have the best quartet of relievers in the league, with–in addition to Pfeffer as the closer–Craig Kimbrel, who has been virtually unhittable, at 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA and a WHIP of 1.00 and Adam Wainwright and Frank DiPino. Wainwright has only an 0-1 record, but a 1.80 ERA and 0.96 WHIP and DiPino is 0-2 with 1 save and 2 holds along with a 1.74 ERA.

The House of David’s Bob Rush may be the closest competition Wainwright has as a high inning reliever. Rush is 3-1 with a 1.66 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. Some would argue that Baltimore’s Ned Garvin belongs here as well–Garvin has made 2 starts and 8 relief appearances, accumulating a 3-1 record with 2 holds and a 2.62 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP.

Chuck Finley‘s role for Los Angeles has been in flux all year, but he’s been excellent no matter how he’s been used, at 2-0 with 4 holds and a 2.96 ERA to go along with a 1.11 WHIP.

The AI’s choices are somewhat inexplicable: Finley, Baltimore’s Buddy Groom (0-0, 1 save, 4 holds, 2.42 ERA), Lavelle, and the Gothams‘ Mike Norris (1-1, 1 hold, 2.25 ERA). I mean, I love me some Mike Norris, but …

I would project five relievers as Henke, Papelbon, Finley, Kimbrel, and Wainwright. But it’s very unpredictable this early in the game.

Series X Featured Matchup: Indianapolis ABC’s @ Kansas City Monarchs

By mknn

On July 15, 2021

In Featured Series, Game Recaps

Series preview here.

This was a very close series, with each game decided by a single run.

Game One: Johnny Cueto @ Luke Hamlin

A matchup of similar hurlers, each of which have turned in some strong starts and each of which have turned in some duds. Johnny Cueto comes in at 4-2 with a 4.60 ERA and Luke Hamlin 2-3 and 4.24.

A 2-run homerun by Stan Musial put the Monarchs up in the bottom of the first, but in the top of the 4th, Oscar Charleston both extended his hitting streak to fourteen games and cut the lead in half with a shot into the left field seats. Johnny Bench and Hal Morris followed with consecutive singles, and the game was tied when Edd Roush lined a pitch into centerfield, scoring Bench. Roush was thrown out trying to stretch the hit into a double, and a strikeout of Chase Headley got Hamlin out of the inning.

Cueto would give up one more run in the bottom of the sixth: Rogers Hornsby singled, moved to second on a passed ball, tagged up to take third on a fly to deep CF by Ducky Medwick, and scored on a single by Ted Simmons. The bottom of the seventh was more traditional: an infield single by Ozzie Smith and a smash into the left field stands by Boog Powell put Kansas City up 5-2 and chased Cueto from the mound, to be relieved by Lefty James.

Indianapolis scored once in the 8th on a triple by Joe Morgan (in his first game back from the DL) and a sac fly from Charleston, closing the score to 5-3.

That only served to setup the top of the 9th. Frank DiPino came in for Kansas City, and gave up a double to Roush. He was relieved by Craig Kimbrel, who induced a groundout from Ernie Lombardi before giving way to the Monarchs’ closer, Jeff Pfeffer. Pfeffer walked Bob Bescher, but got a flyout from Danny Hoffman for the second out, bring up Morgan once again.

Little Joe came through with a single, scoring Roush, and Charleston doubled down the right field line, scoring 2 and putting the ABC’s on top, 6-5.

It was enough as Doc White pitched a perfect 9th for his first save.

Morgan had 3 hits and Charleston 4 RBIs for Indianapolis; Hornsby, Simmons, and Lou Brock had 2 hits each for Kansas City.

IND 6 (James 2-0; White 1 Sv) @ KAN 5 (Pfeffer 3-1, 2 BS; Wainwright 1 H; Kimbrel 7 H)
HRs: IND – Charleston (2); KAN – Powell (5), Musial (6)
Box Score

Game 2: David Price @ Jose Rijo

Jose Rijo has struggled this year, with an ERA approaching 7 while David Price–despite only two decisions on the year–is dragging his down towards a sub-4.00 level.

Once more the Monarchs took the early lead: a double from Stan Musial and an RBI single from Albert Pujols made it 1-0 Kansas City after 1 inning. The ABC’s tied it up in the top of the second, but then both pitchers settled down, until, with 2 outs in the bottom of the fifth, Lou Brock and Ozzie Smith delivered back-to-back doubles against Price, putting Kansas City ahead, 2-1.

Rijo got out of a bases-loaded jam in the top of the 6th by striking out Ed Charles for the final out. That was it for the Kansas City hurler–6 innings, 5 hits, 1 run was a very good day for him, and the somewhat shaky Connie Johnson took over in the top of the 7th.

The score remained 2-1, and again the Monarchs turned to Jeff Pfeffer in the 9th. The big right-hander walked Edd Roush, got two batters to fly out to Willie McGee in center, and then walked Danny Hoffman. So, two on and two out, and once again Joe Morgan at the plate in a key situation. This time, a lazy fly ball to left ended the game, evening the series at one with the Kansas City victory.

Both starters were excellent: Price gave up 7 hits and 2 runs in 7 innings, but still took the loss.

Johnny Bench and Hal Morris had 2 hits each for Indianapolis and Oscar Charleston was hitless, ending his streak at 14 games. McGee and Musial had 2 hits apiece for Kansas City.

IND 1 (Price 1-2) @ KAN 2 (Rijo 3-2; Johnson 1 H; Pfeffer 6 Sv)
HRs: none
Box Score

Game 3: Rube Foster @ Andy Petite

An interesting game where Indianapolis took the lead without a hit (Bob Bescher walked, stole second, and scored on an error Kansas City’s Gene Freese at 3B). They doubled the lead when a Joe Morgan double scored a laboring Ernie Lombardi all the way from first in the top of the 4th.

But the Monarchs answered immediately, with a leadoff homerun from Albert Pujols and then, after two quick outs, five consecutive hits: a double from Freese and singles from Fielder Jones, Lou Brock, Ozzie Smith, and Ted Simmons. Those hits scored 2, with the inning ending when Bescher gunned down Brock at the plate. The Monarchs were now ahead, 3-2.

Rube Foster gave up 10 hits in 6 innings, but only 3 runs while Andy Petite was spectacular, allowing 4 hits and only 2 earned runs in just over 7 innings.

Careful readers would know, then, that Indianapolis would score again: after Dave Henderson walked with 2 outs in the top of the 7th, Johnny Bench was sent to the plate to pinch-hit for Davey Concepcion. Bench sliced a triple down the right-field line, scoring Henderson and tying the game at 3.

It stayed that way to the bottom of the 9th, when Kansas City scored a run in what has become a bit of a trademark style: Brock reached on a walk (OK, that’s not so common), stole second, moved to third on a soft single to CF by Smith, and scored on a fly ball to right by Simmons, ending the game.

Willie Mitchell pitched well, but took the loss, with Craig Kimbrel earning the victory with 1.2 innings of hitless relief.

IND 3 (Mitchell 1-1) @ KAN 4 (Kimbrel 1-1)
HRs: KAN – Pujols (6)
Box Score

Game 4: Red Faber @ Frank Castillo

Attempting to gain a series split, Indianapolis jumped on Frank Castillo quickly, with consecutive doubles by Oscar Charleston and Johnny Bench and a single from Joe Morgan leading to an early 3-0 lead. After a Boog Powell RBI put Kansas City on the board, the ABC’s used an unexpected source to re-establish their 3-run lead when light-hitting Chase Headley doubled home Jake Stenzel.

Red Faber sailed along until the fifth, when another RBI from Powell–this one a double that scored Ozzie Smith–opened the floodgates. Albert Pujols singled home Powell, and then Rogers Hornsby hit a long homerun to right-center, putting the Monarchs in front, 5-4. That meant that, despite a subpar performance, Castillo turned the game over to Trevor Rosenthal with the lead and a chance for a victory.

Rosenthal allowed a run on a wild pitch, tying the game at 5, and putting the match in the hands of the two bullpens. Kansas City would strike first, with a 2-run homerun from Willie McGee putting them up, 7-5. But Rosenthal would be unable to hold it, allowing consecutive doubles to Bob Bescher and Hal Morris before giving way to Adam Wainwright. Wainwright would allow one more run on a sacrifice fly, so once again we were tied, this time 7-7.

Once again the ABC’s found success from an unlikely source, as Dennis Menke–called on to pinch hit for Bescher–delivered a single to center to score the go-ahead run. The ABC’s Rob Murphy, who has struggled most of the year, retired Kansas City in order in the bottom of the 8th. That setup Indianapolis’ closer, Rob Dibble, to face the heart of Kansas City’s lineup in the bottom of the 9th.

Stan Musial walked, and was replaced at first by pinch-runner Fielder Jones. Pujols whiffed, but Hornsby lifted a ball to shallow center. It fell for a single, putting runners on 1st and 2nd with one out. Dibble induced a groundball to second base by Lou Brock, but Headley–called into emergency service at shortstop–couldn’t handle the throw, loading the bases for Ducky Medwick, hitting .359 since being recalled from AAA a few weeks back.

Medwick lifted it deep enough into the OF for Jones to score easily, tying the game. Dibble struck out Salvador Perez, sending us into extra innings.

It was the bottom of the 11th, and Medwick once again: he delivered a single, scoring Jones to win the game–and the series–for Kansas City. Hornsby had 3 hits for the Monarchs.

The win went to Jeff Pfeffer, who moved to 4-1 on the year, with Lefty James suffering the loss.

IND 8 (James 2-1; Murphy 3 H; Dibble 1 BS) @ KAN 9 (Pfeffer 4-1; Rosenthal 4 BS; Wainwright 1 BS)
HRs: KAN – McGee (3), Hornsby (4)
Box Score

Series Notes

Joe Morgan returned from the DL in strong form, going 5-for-18 and Hal Morris went 6-for-17. But the offensive leader for Indianapolis was Johnny Bench, who had 6 hits in 13 at-bats.

Ted Simmons led the way for the Monarchs, with 6 hits in 11 at-bats. Ozzie Smith went 6-for-17 and Rogers Hornsby 5-for-14. Jeff Pfeffer was involved in the decision in all four games, going 2-0 with 1 save and 1 blown save.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – NL Starting Pitchers

By mknn

On July 14, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

We’ll start with the starting pitchers. Note that the NL is actually the Marvin Miller & Effa Manley Divisions.

First, the shoo-in. Portland‘s Walter Johnson is 6-0 with a 3.07 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and 1.9 WAR. Only a massive collapse would prevent Big Train from being the inaugural starter for the NL.

After Johnson, it gets cloudy very quickly.

Brooklyn‘s Don Drysdale was hit hard in his most recent start, seeing his ERA move all the way to 2.41. That’s impressive, but it puts him behind Miami‘s Camilo Pascual at 2.26, and both hurlers have records of 4-1.

The Black Yankees‘ Ron Guidry has a record of only 4-3, but a 3.41 ERA and a WBL-leading 76 strikeouts, along with a 1.12 WHIP, given him a strong case. It’s an interesting comparison with Ray Collins (PHI), who is 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA, but a WHIP just under 1.3, and more walks than strikeouts.

Cleveland‘s Whit Wyatt is 3-1, but if he continues to maintain a 2.41 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, along with a sub 4.00 FIP, he’ll have to be in the conversation. Another Spiders’ hurler, Cy Young, is emerging as well. Young is only 2-2 for his record, but has a 3.26 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP and 1.2 WAR.

Miami’s Tommy Bridges was added to the rotation after the start of the season, but has performed well, with a 3-0 record and a 2.87 ERA.

The AI thinks the NL should take fifteen pitchers, eleven of them starters, to the all-star game. That’s not going to happen.

If I had to pick five, thinking about likely future performance, they would be Johnson, Drysedale, Pascual, Guidry, and Young.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – AL Starting Pitchers

By mknn

On July 13, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

We’ll start with the starting pitchers. Note that the AL is actually the Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions.

As the only 6-game winner in these divisions, Gerrit Cole (LAA) has the inside track on a spot, even if his performance may not strictly warrant it. Still, 6-2 with a WHIP under 1.3 and 1.8 WAR is pretty good, even if his ERA is slightly over 4.

CC Sabathia (HOD) has better numbers (2.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 1.9 WAR) and at 5-2 a very similar record. Chicago’s Tricky Nichols sits at 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA, and could certainly be selected if the wins keep piling up.

From there, it’s pretty wide open.

Baltimore’s Johnny Sain and Dennis Martinez are both at 4-1. Martinez has better numbers–a 3.42 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP–but the challenge is whether they can keep those levels up for the next month or so. Kansas City’s Andy Petite is 3-2, but with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP and is certainly in the conversation, as is Ben Sheets (CAG), whose 1.18 WHIP and 4-2 record are more impressive than his 3.98 ERA.

If you look past identical 2-3 records, Sad Sam Jones (NYG), Jack Taylor (HOD), and Hank Aguirre (DET) have good numbers. They sit second through fourth in ERA (from 3.15 for Jones to 3.44 for Aguirre) and WHIPs all at roughly 1.2. Aguirre is injured, but it’s currently unknown how much time–if any–he’ll miss.

Two Memphis hurlers, Roger Clemens and Nixey Callahan, have a shot as well, but you have to look pretty deep at the numbers. Clemens is 0-4 on the season with an ERA approaching 6, but his WHIP is under 1.4 and he has the 3rd lowest FIP at 3.63. Callahan is 3-4 with a far more acceptable 3.68 ERA and is holding opposition batters to a .230 BA.

Similarly, Kansas City’s Frank Castillo‘s record is only 2-4, and his ERA is pushing 4.00. But his FIP is 3.20 and he’s racked up 1.7 WAR, so a few wins could move him to the center of the contenders.

Two more long shots: Chicago’s Ed Walsh leads these divisions in strikeouts with 55, and the Gothams’ Christy Mathewson is third with 47. Walsh sits at 3-3 with a 4.00 ERA and Mathewson is 4-4 with a 4.62 ERA. Both have been hit hard, but if they can improve would have a strong argument.

The AI would select Jones, Martinez, Sabathia, Taylor, and, in a surprise, Stubby Overmire of Houston. Two things led to Overmire’s inclusion: first, the AI thinks he is Houston’s only player; second, he has pitched well: a 2.35 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, but it’s only over 3 starts and an 0-1 record. So I doubt that happens.

My prediction would be … Cole, Sabathia, Nichols, Walsh, and Martinez.

Series X Preview: Indianapolis ABC’s @ Kansas City Monarchs

By mknn

On July 12, 2021

In Featured Series, Series Previews

This is our first featured series with Indianapolis. Kansas City was featured in Series VIII, where they split 4 games with Los Angeles.

The ABC’s come into the game with a record of 17-20, putting them 7.5 games behind the Black Yankees in the Effa Manley division while Kansas City is at .500, 19-19, 4 games back of Chicago in the Cum Posey division.

Both teams have decent potential to be better than their records, predictably given that, there are a few strong perofrmances, but the teams need more players to step forward.

For the ABC’s, the best of them has been C Johnny Bench, who is hitting at a 281/383/596 clip while adding great defense behind the plate. Nineteen year old Oscar Charleston looks like the real deal as well, slashing 337/360/494 with speed and defense in the outfield. Indianapolis is looking to the return of Joe Morgan from the DL and the institution of Edd Roush into the lineup on the regular to fire up the offense.

But the pitching needs to improve as well: all five starters have an ERA between 3.98 (Rube Foster, 3-2 on the year) and 4.99 (Dolf Luque, 2-4). That means they’ve all been solid, but none spectacular. Rob Dibble has been great on the back end of the bullpen, but Rob Murphy hit hard setting him up.

Kansas City’s record has been more disappointing in some ways: the Monarchs are top 8 in almost all offensive categories in the league (except homeruns, which, of course, matters), and they are first in the advanced pitching metrics–WAR and FIP. They really have two flaws: not enough homeruns, and a defense that has continually let them down.

The Monarchs knew they had a “Big Three” coming into the year, and Stan Musial (380/448/570), Albert Pujols (320/380/503), and Rogers Hornsby (283/367/467) haven’t disappointed. Boog Powell‘s contribution (300/423/473) has been unexpected, and the real key to the offense is if their speedsters–Willie McGee, Lou Brock, Ozzie Smith–can get on base enough to keep the innings going.

The pitching has been a bit less consistent. Frank Castillo (2-4, 3.62) has pitched far better than his record and Andy Pettite (3-2, 3.83) has been solid. But both Rube Marquard and Jose Rijo are in danger of moving out of the rotation, with ERA’s of 5.67 and 6.63 respectively. The bullpen has been pretty fantastic, with the closing trio of Frank DiPino (1 Sv, 1 H, 1.62), Craig Kimbrel (6 H, 2.65), and closer Jeff Pfeffer (3-0, 5 Sv, 2.16) nearly unmatched in the league.

Projected Series Matchups

Indianapolis first: Johnny Cueto (4-2, 4.60) @ Luke Hamlin (2-3, 4.24); David Price (1-1, 4.15) @ Jose Rijo (2-2, 6.63); Rube Foster (3-2, 3.98) @ Andy Pettite (3-2, 3.83); Red Faber (3-2, 4.71) @ Frank Castillo (2-4, 3.62).

The Foster v Pettite matchup is clearly the most intriguing, but there are important questions to be answered about Rijo (can he keep his rotation spot?) and Castillo (can he move into the elite starts in the league?) as well.

TWIWBL 11.4: Notes from Series IX – Marvin Miller Division

By mknn

On July 11, 2021

In TWIWBL

#Birmingham Black Barons

The trio of Larry Benton, Greg Maddux, and Warren Spahn have been simply miserable. Benton has only pitched 4 innings, so he may get a pass, but Maddux and Spahn are both on the edge of being sent back down to AAA.

Tim Hudson, on the other hand, has done well enough to, at least for the time being, move into the rotation as the 5th starter.

The Black Barons have finally lost patience with Dale Murphy, whose 137/254/157 line has just refused to improve. Murphy will head to AAA Atlanta, with Del Crandall–who hasn’t hit particularly well, but does offer better defense–moving to the WBL.

#Miami Cuban Giants

Two homeruns from Manny Machado and Alexei Ramirez‘ first longball of the year powered Miami to a 8-4 win over Philadelphia. Tommy Bridges improved to 3-0, reducing his ERA to 2.87.

Bill Landrum was demoted to AAA, with Clay Condrey, who had dominated AAA so far, being recalled to Miami’s bullpen. To make room for Condrey, Tony Fossas was released.

The mix of Charlie Bennett and John Munyan behind the plate has been miserable for the Cuban Giants. Bennett stays in Miami due to his defense, with Munyan and OF Tony Gonzalez both being shipped out to AAA. Alan Ashby was recalled at C and Gary Sheffield–slashing 358/450/621 in Orlando–was recalled as well.

#Portland Sea Dogs

Jeff Burroughs and Fred Dunlap hit their first homeruns of the year, and Buddy Bell added his 8th to support a strong start from Bert Blyleven in a 14-2 blowout win for the Sea Dogs over Los Angeles. Harry Hooper scored 3 times, Bobby Murcer had 3 hits, and Kent Hrbek and Dunlap drove in 3 with Bell driving in 4.

Not only did the Sea Dogs lose 7-5 to the Angels by giving up 3 runs in the bottom of the eighth, they lost both Smokey Joe Wood and Frank Williams to injuries. Both pitchers were put on the 10 day DL, with Pascual Perez and Bob Porterfield coming up to Portland (the moves also cleared the way for impressive 18-year old Rick Wise to move from AA to AAA).

Walter Johnson became the first 6-game winner in the WBL, besting Gerrit Cole in a greatly anticipated pitching matchup. Johnson threw 8 strong innings and Joe Mauer scored 4 runs as the Sea Dogs won, 9-2. Mauer and Hrbek went deep and Murcer had 4 RBI.

The Sea Dogs may have uncovered a gem: Joseito Munoz had sparkled in a few relief appearances, and given his first start, the young Cuban responded with over 6 innings of 1-run ball, winning his first game. Murcer had 3 hits and scored 3 times , and Burroughs homered again to lead Portland to a 6-1 victory.

Even with Munoz’ performance, the Sea Dogs anointed Wade Miller as their 5th starter. Harmon Killebrew was demoted to AAA, with Adrian Beltre joining Portland. Greg Litton‘s ability to cover a half-dozen positions is the only thing keeping him in the WBL, and Burroughs’ recent hot streak has moved him away from the demotion line as well.

#San Francisco Sea Lions

Bobby Bonds pulled up lame, and will spend 10 days on the DL. Veteran Bob Cerv–slashing 339/382/711 at AAA–will be recalled, with the Sea Lions releasing 35-year old Jason Giambi to clear space on the roster.

Unsurprisingly given the quality of his 5 appearances to date, Diego Segui was named to the starting rotation.