Month: January 2025

TWIWBL 70.3: Bill James Division

On January 6, 2025

Team	W/L	Pct	GB
New York Black Yankees	47-30	.610	—
Cleveland Spiders	42-33	.560	4
Memphis Red Sox	37-38	.493	9
Detroit Wolverines	35-41	.461	11.5
Baltimore Black Sox	33-44	.429	14

Bill James Division | 25 June

#Baltimore Black Sox

The Black Sox would love for someone–John Wetteland, Sean Marshall, even the surprising Justin Hampson–to step into the closer role, allowing Joe Beggs to join the host of arms vying for rotation spots for Baltimore. But for now, the back end of the rotation remains an open competition.

Gavvy Cravath went deep twice, but Baltimore couldn’t overcome a rough start from Beggs in a 6-4 loss to Chicago. Maybe he should stay as the closer?

The bad news was the Black Sox fell to Cleveland, 1-0. The good news was that Ned Garvin threw a great game, allowing only 2 hits and the single run over 8 innings.

#Cleveland Spiders

Cy Young was masterful, leading the Spiders to a 1-0 win over Baltimore with a 4-hit shutout. Young whiffed 8 and improved to 8-3 on the year.

#Detroit Wolverines

Mike Griffin was sent to the DL despite a lack of clarity on his exact injury, and Hal Newhouser was recalled from his short rehab stint. Newhouser will slot into the rotation, which is looking pretty patchwork at this point. With Mike Henneman and Billy Hoeft out for a while, Chad Bradford will serve as closer, with a very makeshift bullpen trying to get to him.

#Memphis Red Sox

Reggie Smith hit his 20th and 21st homeruns of the year, leading Memphis to a 10-2 victory over Chicago.

#New York Black Yankees

Mike Schmidt, Babe Ruth, and Mickey Mantle hit back-to-back-to-back homers, and the Black Yankees rode a good start from Andy Pettitte to a 10-2 win over Miami. Mantle went deep twice in the game, and Pettitte improved to 8-5 with 7 strong innings.

Héctor López hit 2 out and Ruth hit his 38th as the Black Yankees topped Miami, 10-7. Waite Hoyt improved to 6-0 on the year despite giving up 11 hits in 5 innings, and Aroldis Chapman picked up his 13th save.

Lou Gehrig hit his 24th and 25th dingers of the year, but it was far from enough as the Black Yankees were trounced by Miami, 17-5.

Schmidt and Eric Davis went deep twice, and Gehrig launched a walk-off shot in the bottom of the 9th, carrying the Black Yankees to a 7-6 win over Detroit.

Schmidt did it again–2 more dingers giving him 23 for the season–and New York again topped Detroit, this time 7-5.

TWIWBL 70.2 Spotlight on the Portland Sea Dogs

By mknn

On January 3, 2025

In TWIWBL

Portland was a playoff team last year. This year, they are 14 games behind and 11 games under .500. So we gotta’ figure out what happened.

Portland features players from the Washington Senators, Minnesota Twins, and Texas Rangers.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

Feels like virtually everyone on the roster is underperforming compared to last year. Not great.

THE OFFENSE

Lots of struggle here.

#What’s Going Right

Rogers Hornsby, last year’s prize trade acquisition, continues to star at age 34, leading the team in BA and OBP, with a .536 SLG to boot.

C Joe Mauer continues to be an elite backstop, slashing 302/383/502.

Gil Hodges leads the team in HR with 21 and RBI with 52 despite an OPS under .800. This actually probably belongs below: only 4 other hitters are in double digits in homeruns for a team having a hard time with power.

The Sea Dogs gave up a lot for Ken Griffey, Jr., whose talent remains undeniable. After struggling mightily with Ottawa last season, The Kid is doing significantly better, with a 278/332/546 slash line. So it’s not exactly setting the world on fire, but at 20 years old, it’s something.

Kiki Cuyler and Jeff Burroughs have been quite good as reserves, pushing hard for more playing time.

#What’s Not Going Right

Buddy Bell has been mired in a major slump, with a recent rebound leaving him still slashing 245/268/401, which is pretty miserable.

Bobby Murcer and Jim Fregosi have been thoroughly meh after each being among the best in the league at their positions last season.

Paul Molitor has been tantalizing but ultimately not very effective.

Harry Hooper has been among the worst OFers in the league, falling far, far short of last year’s solid contributions.

Cliff Lee–perhaps the best C prospect in the minors last year–has been horrible as Mauer’s backup this season, probably warranting a return to AAA in the near future.

THE PITCHING

The bullpen–a strength of the Sea Dogs last year–has been anything but this time around.

#What’s Going Right

Walter Johnson is Walter Johnson. He’s not as dominant as he was for periods last year, but he still leads the staff in wins and the starters in ERA.

Trevor Hoffman has excelled since being named the team’s closer.

Rookie Walter Ball has been quite good, with the best WHIP on the staff. For a 2nd round pick, that’s exceeding reasonable expectations.

Mike Cuellar continues to be among the best long relievers in the league.

#What’s Not Going Right

Johan Santana came back from long term injury and stepped back into his closer role–remember, he made the All-Star game last year leading the league in saves before getting hurt. So he came back and … something was dramatically wrong. So wrong that Santana is now in the minors being converted into a starter.

Dizzy Trout and Pascual Pérez have been mediocre at best, which is far from an indictment but also far from their performance last year.

But probably the biggest issue has been the rest of the bullpen. Mark Melancon–and his 5.00+ ERA–has been the best of them, and the rest of the relievers have had a full turnover, with the current bunch–Scott Terry, Tom Zachary, and Art Fowler–not looking any better.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

There is some talent here, especially in the OF, where Vladimir Guerrero, Hugh Duffy and Chuck Klein all look like WBL talents. It gets a little thinner after that: Hughie Jennings at SS seems good, but on the mound there’s not a ton. Maybe Harry Harper, maybe Joaquin Benoit, maybe Willard Schmidt?

WHAT’S NEEDED

The offense to recover a little bit and the pitching staff to recover a lot.

That pretty much sums it up.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

How will the Sea Dogs compensate for the loss of Cravath? The hope was that Hooper and Murcer would keep producing, and that, combined with Ken Griffey, Jr. would provide enough to make up for the loss of Cravath. Not so much.
Who joins the OF? Griffey, Jr. But … yeah, see above.

Notice that pitching wasn’t mentioned in the questions … so this was quite a shock for the Sea Dogs.

FEATURED SERIES

Portland is visiting its West Coast neighbors this week, and we’ll feature their opening series, 3 games against the Los Angeles Angels.

Projected Starters

Portland starter listed first.

Bert Blyleven (3-5, 4.73) @ Pud Galvin (1-9, 5.10)
Dizzy Trout (5-5, 4.44) @ Tom Seaver (3-5, 4.76)
Walter Johnson (8-4, 4.13) @ Brett Anderson (6-2, 4.28)

Game One

Kent Hrbek singled home a run in the top of the first and Bobby Murcer hit his first of the game (foreshadowing confirmed) in the top of the 4th, putting the Sea Dogs up, 2-0. Bert Blyleven looked solid, but a 2-run shot from LA’s Ichiro Suzuki tied up the game.

But the Sea Dogs looked more like their old selves from then on out, with Murcer hitting a grandslam in the fifth, making it 7-3. The game was over at that point, despite a 3 run homer from Mike Trout in the 9th.

The two homeruns gave Murcer 18 on the year and, as importantly for Portland, Hrbek added 3 hits as he showed more signs of rebounding towards last year’s performance. Blyleven was good enough, and Tom Zachary added a scoreless 1.2 innings in relief.

POR 8 (Blyleven 4-5) @ LAA 6 (Seaver 3-6)
HRs: POR – Murcer 2 (18); LAA – Suzuki (5), Trout (15).
Box Score

Game Two

A day off before this series has shifted the matchups some, with game two now featuring Walter Johnson for the Sea Dogs and the Angels keeping with their originally scheduled hurler, Pud Galvin.

LA took the lead in the 4th as Mike Trout doubled, stole 3rd, and scored on a groundout from Doug Rader. Carlos Delgado added his 13th of the year, and the Angels had a 2-0 lead.

The Angels are never sure which version of Galvin they’ll get: today, unfortunately for the Sea Dogs, it’s the one twirling a perfect game through 5 innings. That was spoiled by a couple of walks, and then the no-no went away when Rogers Hornsby singled in the top of the 7th.

A single from Paul Molitor and a walk to Gil Hodges chased Galvin in the top of the 8th, but Francisco Rodríguez and Joe Nathan were perfect in relief, completing the 2-hit shutout and evening the series at 1 game each.

POR 0 (Johnson 8-6) @ LAA 2 (Galvin 2-9; Nathan 11 Sv; Rodríguez 6 H)
HRs: POR – none; LAA – Delgado (13).
Box Score

Game Three

Portland’s Dizzy Trout and Los Angeles’ Brett Anderson are both pitching excellently at the moment, making the rubber game matchup pretty appealing.

Don Buford and Kal Daniels hit back-to-back homers to leadoff the bottom of the first, giving the home team an early 2-0 lead. Carlos Delgado added his 14th of the year, a 2-run shot, doubling the lead. Trout didn’t make it out of the 5th, leaving after loading the bases.

Meanwhile, Anderson was sailing along, allowing only 2 hits through 6 shutout frames.

The Angels would add some more–2 in the 6th and 4 in the 8th–but the story was Anderson, who was pulled after allowing 2 hits in the 9th, combining with Ross Reynolds on the 4-hit shutout.

Delgado had 4 hits on the day and drove in 3.

POR 0 (Trout 5-6) @ LAA 10 (Anderson 7-2)
HRs: POR – none; LAA – Daniels (14), Buford (16), Delgado (14).
Box Score

So, back to back shutouts ain’t great. There is much to be done in Portland this season, but it would seem the immediate challenge is to successfully participate in the midseason trade market as a seller.

TWIWBL 70.1: Year 2, Week 13

By mknn

On January 2, 2025

In TWIWBL

{ Happy 2025, y’all! }

June 25th

Today, we’ll check in on last year’s all stars from the National League, and next week review the candidates for this year’s midseason classic.

#Awards

Baltimore is starting to make some noise, led by Frank Robinson, who was the AL Player of the Week after hitting .409 with 3 homeruns. Boog Powell of the Kansas City Monarchs hit .522 with 4 homers, earning honors over in the NL.

#Team Performance

Other than a bit of separation in the Effa Manley Division, not a lot has changed.

The New York Black Yankees still lead the Bill James Division, but Cleveland has closed to within 4. San Francisco, tied with the Black Yankees for the best record in the league, is beginning to run away with the Cum Posey Division, leading Chicago (the only 2nd place team under .500) by 9.5 games.

Brooklyn tops the Effa Manley Division, but it’s still tight, with Homestead 2 and the New York Gothams 3.5 games back. A 2-8 record in their last 10 games has dropped Ottawa 7.5 games behind.

Finally, the Indianapolis ABC’s and the Kansas City Monarchs are in a dead heat in the Marvin Miller Division.

The Birmingham Black Barons retain the dubious honor of having the worst record in the league at 30-46.

#Player Performance

Batters

Detroit‘s Ty Cobb had fallen under .400, but a torrid streak has him back on top of the league in batting average at .409, edging in front of Houston‘s Tony Gwynn who sits at .404.

Cobb’s performance really deserves some attention: it’s not just the .409 average, it’s the league leading .861 SLG, driven by 36 doubles and 23 homers. He’s clearly the best hitter in the league so far, although Detroit’s overall performance may reduce his standing in the MVP race.

Roberto Alomar (OTT). 324/405/617. 67 R.
José Canseco (MCG). 256/374/740. 33 HR.
Oscar Charleston (IND). 330/381/642. 9 3B.
Ty Cobb (DET). 409/460/861. 106 H, 36 2B, 5.1 WAR.
Josh Gibson (HOM). 391/471/744. 4.7 WAR.
Tony Gwynn (HOU). 404/436/632. 110 H.
Pete Hill (HOU). 280/366/477. 9 3B.
Joe Jackson (CAG). 372/416/613. 36 2B.
Stan Musial (KCM). 329/392/573. 37 2B.
Babe Ruth (NYY). 293/417/759. 36 HR, 85 RBI, 73 R.
Larry Walker (OTT). 296/369/727. 33 HR, 77 RBI.

Rickey Henderson (San Francisco) and Tim Raines (Ottawa) continue to be 1-2 in the league in steals, 55 to 46.

Two batters (Indianapolis’ Adam Dunn and the Black Yankees’ Mickey Mantle) have struck out over 100 times, but with 16 others already over 80, they won’t be alone in the century club for long.

Pitchers

Starters

Indianapolis’ Luis Padrón continues to lead the league in wins with 11. The three other starters with double-digit wins are also included below.

Two interesting newer names here: Rube Foster (Andrew Rube, not Rube) has just been impossible to hit, and now that he is safely over the IP threshold to qualify, it will be interesting to see how long he stays on the leaderboards. Brooklyn‘s Smokey Joe Williams has pitched excellently, despite a sub .500 record to show for it.

A. Rube Foster (KCM). 5-0, 2.22. 0.89 WHIP.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 8-4, 3.54. 114 IP.
Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-4, 3.77. 136 K, 3.1 WAR.
Bump Hadley (SFS). 10-4, 4.34. 3.49 FIP.
Luis Padrón (IND). 11-2, 4.22.
Eddie Plank (SFS). 10-3, 3.57.
Toad Ramsey (HOU). 10-4, 2.87. 116 IP, 145 K, 0.90 WHIP, 2.72 FIP, 5.0 WAR.
Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 6-7, 3.29. 3.1 WAR.

Relievers

We’ve listed the top 3 relievers in saves. We’re getting some separation here, but it’s still hard to really point to anyone–other than Kansas City’s Craig Kimbrel–as being lights-out dominant.

17 IP minimum.

Rod Beck (SFS). 3-2, 3.80. 19 Sv.
Eric Gagne (BRK). 1-1, 3.18. 17 Sv.
Ken Howell (SFS). 4-1, 1.32. 1 Sv, 4 H.
Bob Howry (PHI). 3-1, 3.60. 10 Sv, 0.775 WHIP.
Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-3, 3.62. 1 Sv, 10 H.
Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 1-1, 1.31. 2 Sv, 10 H.
Josh Lindblom (HOM). 4-2, 3.45. 20 Sv.
Rob Murphy (IND). 1-1, 3.09. 1 Sv, 11 H.
Lee Smith (HOD). 4-1, 2.97. 3 Sv, 6 H, 0.73 WHIP.

#Injury Report

The biggest injury to hit in a while is Kansas City’s Stan Musial, who will miss about a week.

Homestead’s Owen Wilson, Memphis‘ Skel Roach, and Miami‘s Al Oliver are all due to start rehab assignments this week.

#Last Year’s NL All-Stars

As we ramp up to this year’s all-star game, seemed a good time to check in on last year’s designees. This week, we’ll take a look at (what was last year) the AL.

#OBV

Rod Beck (SFS). Second in the league in saves, despite some rough other numbers. Should be enough.

José Canseco (MCG). A .256 average ain’t great … but 33 homers and a nearly 1.100 OPS is.

Lou Gehrig (NYY). A borderline choice last year, Gerhig has upped the power a notch this year.

Josh Gibson (HOM). Gibson has blossomed this year with an OPS over 1.200. He’s probably the best backstop in the WBL at 21 years old.

Lefty Grove (SFS). Doing even better than last season.

Ken Howell (SFS). Continues to be dominant in a support role.

Joe Mauer (POR). Mauer has a 302/383/502 slash line. Nuff said.

Scott Rolen (PHI). Rolen continues to deliver for the Stars.

Babe Ruth (NYY). Still leading the league in key categories, most notably HR and RBI.

#Mebbe

Terry Adams (CLE). A decent shot, sitting 5th in the league in saves with solid peripheral numbers.

Johnny Bench (IND). Bench was probably the best C in the league last season; this year he’s picked it up as of late, but still has fallen far short of last year’s levels.

Ron Blomberg (CLE). 1B is so hard … Blomberg has 27 homers and an OPS just shy of 1.000, yet may not make the midsummer classic.

Mike Epstein (HOM). See Blomberg above. Epstein has an OBP near .400 and a SLG near .600, and may be on the fringes as well.

Jim Fregosi (POR). Is an .800 OPS enough at SS? Maybe …

Rickey Henderson (SFS). A borderline choice last year as well … but a .400 OBP and over 50 SBs at the season midpoint is compelling.

Reggie Jackson (SFS). Jackson is no longer threatening the triple crown, but he’s still sporting an OPS of about .980. So mebbe.

Mickey Mantle (NYY). Mantle has an OPS just over 1.000, but the CF contenders are pretty thick. So we’ll see if it gets him in.

#Meh

Kent Hrbek (POR). A fringe MVP candidate last year, Hrbek has fallen to the ranks of the thoroughly average this year.

Derek Jeter (NYY). Jeter has more power this year, but is hitting under .250, moving him behind other contenders.

Thurman Munson (NYY). Munson may belong in the level below, having fallen dramatically from last year’s heights.

Bobby Murcer (POR). Murcer hasn’t been bad, with a 262/327/496 slash line. But it’s not all star material.

Ron Reed (CLE). Reed is effective this year, but not all-star material.

Cy Young (CLE). Still a workhorse, but not nearly as effective as last season.

#What Happened?

Buddy Bell (POR). Bell has been on fire as of late … which has raised his OPS to a not-so-robust .669.

Don Drysedale (BRK). From one of the better aces in the league to an ERA well over 6.00.

Tom Herr (NYY). Herr rode an all-star first half of last season to a trade to a contender, but has struggled since then, including a .655 OPS this year.

Chuck Knoblauch (CLE). Another hard collapse, with Knoblauch falling to a little below Tom Herr levels.

Charlie Root (DET). Made it as a reliver last year, now a full time starter and being no more than adequate.

#Other

Eric Davis (NYY). Solid, but missed too much time through injury.

Tim Hudson (SFS). Injured, and not doing well when not.

Red Ruffing (NYY). Doing well since his return from injury, but has only gotten a handful of starts.

Johan Santana (POR). No longer in the WBL after a horrifically ineffective return from long-term injury.