{ The All-Star game is about a month away. We’ll post occasional articles about the contenders for participation in the mid-season classic. These are written “as of now,” so the final selections may vary dramatically, but hopefully these will add to the ongoing flavor of the league. }
We’ll start with the starting pitchers. Note that the AL is actually the Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions.
As the only 6-game winner in these divisions, Gerrit Cole (LAA) has the inside track on a spot, even if his performance may not strictly warrant it. Still, 6-2 with a WHIP under 1.3 and 1.8 WAR is pretty good, even if his ERA is slightly over 4.
CC Sabathia (HOD) has better numbers (2.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 1.9 WAR) and at 5-2 a very similar record. Chicago’s Tricky Nichols sits at 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA, and could certainly be selected if the wins keep piling up.
From there, it’s pretty wide open.
Baltimore’s Johnny Sain and Dennis Martinez are both at 4-1. Martinez has better numbers–a 3.42 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP–but the challenge is whether they can keep those levels up for the next month or so. Kansas City’s Andy Petite is 3-2, but with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP and is certainly in the conversation, as is Ben Sheets (CAG), whose 1.18 WHIP and 4-2 record are more impressive than his 3.98 ERA.
If you look past identical 2-3 records, Sad Sam Jones (NYG), Jack Taylor (HOD), and Hank Aguirre (DET) have good numbers. They sit second through fourth in ERA (from 3.15 for Jones to 3.44 for Aguirre) and WHIPs all at roughly 1.2. Aguirre is injured, but it’s currently unknown how much time–if any–he’ll miss.
Two Memphis hurlers, Roger Clemens and Nixey Callahan, have a shot as well, but you have to look pretty deep at the numbers. Clemens is 0-4 on the season with an ERA approaching 6, but his WHIP is under 1.4 and he has the 3rd lowest FIP at 3.63. Callahan is 3-4 with a far more acceptable 3.68 ERA and is holding opposition batters to a .230 BA.
Similarly, Kansas City’s Frank Castillo‘s record is only 2-4, and his ERA is pushing 4.00. But his FIP is 3.20 and he’s racked up 1.7 WAR, so a few wins could move him to the center of the contenders.
Two more long shots: Chicago’s Ed Walsh leads these divisions in strikeouts with 55, and the Gothams’ Christy Mathewson is third with 47. Walsh sits at 3-3 with a 4.00 ERA and Mathewson is 4-4 with a 4.62 ERA. Both have been hit hard, but if they can improve would have a strong argument.
The AI would select Jones, Martinez, Sabathia, Taylor, and, in a surprise, Stubby Overmire of Houston. Two things led to Overmire’s inclusion: first, the AI thinks he is Houston’s only player; second, he has pitched well: a 2.35 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, but it’s only over 3 starts and an 0-1 record. So I doubt that happens.
My prediction would be … Cole, Sabathia, Nichols, Walsh, and Martinez.