Baseball The Way It Never Was

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Year III Season Preview: Miami Cuban Giants

State of the Franchise

team logo

Two years ago the Cuban Giants were the worst team in the league; last year they were in a playoff race into the final week and finished 80-83, 2nd in the Cum Posey Division, and nobody — inside the building or out — is entirely sure if this is progress or illusion.

Here is what isn’t in dispute. Miami hit an enormous number of home runs in the power-happy 2001 environment. José Canseco hit 68 of them, Jim Thome 59, Gary Sheffield and 20-year-old Julio Rodríguez 42 apiece, and 7 different men hit 28 or more. The lineup is young, deep and distributed — Iván Rodríguez won a Gold Glove behind the plate at 21, Alejandro Oms led the club at .308 at 22, Yasiel Puig slugged .658 in 100 games. So, unlike 2000 (when it was Canseco largely by himself), this is no longer a one-star team.

Still this is not an elite group the deeper you look. Canseco’s 68 homers amassed only 1.7 WAR, and — with one historically notable exception — the defense is not great.

So the season turns on the run prevention, and specifically on the rotation, which is José Méndez and then a lot of uncertainty. Méndez made 37 starts, threw 233 innings, struck out 201 and was worth 7.5 wins in a league whose average ERA was 5.38. Behind him: Jim Whitney, an All-AL Team pick acquired midseason and then pure projection and hope.

2001 Revisited

The bar a year ago was stunningly low: to no longer be considered one of the absolute worst teams in the league would be a nice start. They cleared it in the first month and spent the rest of the summer embarrassing the forecast.

The best case asked for Canseco to repeat and for someone — Molitor, Sheffield, Oms, “or even Puig” — to join him. What actually happened is that nearly everyone did (other than Molitor, who was moved for Pudge, sort of). Thome put up a 1.034 OPS. Sheffield hit 42. Puig hit 298/388/658. And J. Rodríguez, who came into camp with no realistic shot at the roster, took center field on Opening Day and hit 315/347/661 at 20.

The other half of that best case was a front of the rotation built from Camilo Pascual, Freddie Fitzsimmons and Méndez, with Cole Hamels joining them. Méndez delivered. Pascual made 5 starts and blew out a knee. Fitzsimmons was awful, Hamels only slightly better.

And one question got answered: we asked whether Eustaquio Pedroso and Martín Dihigo could carry the 2-way experiment far enough to justify it. Pedroso hit worse than anyone on the roster and abandoned the bat, but maintained the late-inning flexibility. Dihigo, who at 18 was arguably the worst-hitting regular in the league, climbed to 246/291/429 and stole 39 bases — still not a good hitter, and the most interesting player in the organization anyway largely due to his gold glove potential at a half-dozen positions.

Key Changes

In: CC Sabathia (HOD)
Out:

Opening Day Rookies: None

Best Case for 2002

The bats hold and the arms arrive. Canseco and Thome do it again, J. Rodríguez proves 2001 wasn’t a fluke, Puig turns 100 good games into 150, and Iván Rodríguez adds the bat to the glove at 22.

Behind Méndez and Whitney, 2 of the question marks answer: Pascual comes back from the knee, Phenomenal Smith turns 5 starts of 1.98 ball into a season, and CC Sabathia — 179 innings for a bad House of David club — finds the form that made him worth acquiring. Hamels is the interesting one: a 6.18 ERA with 168 strikeouts and 2.3 WAR.

Do that and the squinting stops. This is a young roster with a real ace, and the difference between 80 wins and 90 seems attainable.

Worst Case for 2002

The bats come back to earth. Canseco’s .705 slugging settles toward the middle, the outfield defense keeps leaking, and the same offense produces 15 fewer wins because the run environment normalized rather than because anyone got worse.

Meanwhile the rotation stays what it was. Pascual’s knee doesn’t hold, Sabathia pitches like he did last year (5-15, a 5.78, replacement level), Ramón Martínez gives back another 134 innings of 7.17, and the middle innings — already the org’s stated area of concern — go on being handed to whoever didn’t make the rotation.

Key Questions

  • How much of 2001 was the ballpark? The honest answer is: some, and nobody knows how much. 7 men over 28 home runs is a real lineup or a park effect wearing a costume, and Miami will spend the summer finding out which. The tell to watch isn’t the homer totals — it’s the WAR underneath them, which last year said “good, not great.”
  • Is there a rotation behind Méndez/Whitney? He is a genuine ace and a workhorse, and Whitney may be similar. But the questions beyond that need to be answered.
  • Does the flexibility matter? Dihigo has started at 7 positions, Yount is a shortstop with an outfield move already being discussed, Sheffield isn’t really a third baseman at all, and the 2-way experiments seem amusing, but little more than that.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CI. Rodríguez C · Hoiles
1BThome A · Adcock
2BDihigo C · Roberts
SSYount B
3BSheffield A · Branyan
LFOms C · Pafko
CFJ. Rodríguez A
RFPuig B
DHCanseco A
SPMéndez A · Whitney A · Smith · Pascual · Hamels F · Sabathia D
RPPapelbon C (CL) · Marte · Colomé · Pedroso · Wilson

Dihigo is 19 and the cells can’t hold him: he has started at 7 positions, plays a Gold Glove infield, stole 39 bases, and still hasn’t learned to hit. Jonathan Papelbon has the 9th inning, acquired at the deadline in a burst of playoff belief that cost the org a blue-chip arm in Josh Beckett — and Ricky Nolasco, who saved 26 games last year, opens this one at Triple-A trying to become a starter.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerRF José Canseco1B Steve Balboni
Batting Eye1B Jim ThomeRF Carlos Morán
ContactSS Robin Yount2B Nellie Fox
Running Speed2B Martín DihigoCF Marquis Grissom
Base StealingSP Phenomenal SmithSS Bert Campaneris; RP Dan Collins
IF Defense2B Martín Dihigo2B Luis Castillo
OF DefenseRF Yasiel PuigCF Marquis Grissom
StuffRP Dámaso MarteRP Francis Martes
ControlSP Jim WhitneyRP Craig Lefferts
VelocityRP Jonathan PapelbonRP Tyler Clippard

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (44)21SPScott Olsen
2 (49)24LFJason Bay
3 (55)19CLPedro Martínez
4 (60)20SSJack Glasscock
5 (91)22CFJosé Cruz

Others: OF Carlos Morán, P Lefty George, OF Minnie Miñoso, IF Zoilo Versalles.

This system turns over as fast as the roster does: a year ago the list was headed by Josh Beckett and J. Rodríguez with Jon Matlack 3rd, and all 3 are gone — Beckett to Memphis, Rodríguez into the everyday center-field job, Matlack to the House of David for Sabathia.

What replaced them is arm-heavy and young: Scott Olsen, Jason Bay, and a 19-year-old Pedro Martínez making his A ball debut. Lefty George took the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year and Carlos Morán is the name the club talks about as Sheffield’s eventual replacement at third.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeJoe Adcock, 40Ed Seward, 18
HeightCC Sabathia, 6’7″Phenomenal Smith, 5’6″
OPSCarlos Quentin, 1.082 (AA)Willie Kamm, .567 (AA)
HRJosé Canseco, 68Luis Castillo, 1 (AA)
SBCarlos Morán, 52 (AAA)
WAR (bat)Bob Loane, 4.6 (AA)Cookie Rojas, −2.8
WDon Wilson, 13 (AA)
SVJonathan Papelbon, 28
ERAGary Gentry, 3.07 (AA)Ramón Martínez, 7.17
WAR (pit)José Méndez, 7.5CC Sabathia, −0.0

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Wandering House of David

State of the Franchise

team logo

The first House of David preview, 3 years ago, said there was a lot of talent here and the club was a year or 2 away. That is still, more or less, the pitch for the South Side travellers.

The bats are not (and never have been) the problem. Ernie Banks hit 59 home runs from shortstop last year, Ryne Sandberg hit 42 more at 33, and Anthony Rizzo claimed first base with a 287/391/594 season that was the most complete offensive year on the club. Behind them the org has bats stacked in the places bats are easiest to find — 4 first basemen on the roster, 2 catchers, and a Triple-A club that opens the season with Tony Conigliaro (7 homers in 24 WBL games last September), Jim Edmonds and Mark Grace (a 1.008 OPS) on it, because there is nowhere to put them.

The problem is the mound, and it has been for a year. Jack Taylor, who was an ace in 2000, gave back 192 innings of 5.90 ball. Bob Rush won a Gold Glove and posted a 5.28. Fergie Jenkins struck out 131 in 132 innings and finished with a 6.55. Nobody was good except a 22-year-old nobody expected (Kyle Peterson, more below).

So the season leans on Brett Anderson, 23 and acquired from Los Angeles in March for Richie Hebner — 189 innings, 172 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP for the Angels last year, and the closest thing to a front-line arm this org has had since Taylor. He doesn’t have to be an ace here, he just has to offer some stability to a beleaguered, revolving door of a rotation.

2001 Revisited

We asked for one thing: a repeat of last year’s playoff contention, at a minimum. The House of David went 78-84 and finished 4th, 7 games out, which is 5 games worse than the year before.

Ouch.

The odd part is how thoroughly both halves of the forecast missed. The best case had 4 clauses — repeat years from Taylor and Rush, a healthy Pete Browning, Elrod Hendricks not backsliding, the outfield sorting itself out — and 4 of 4 came up empty. Browning spent more time on the DL than on the field (again). Hendricks won a Gold Glove (the bleachers cheer!) and hit 195/291/416 (the bleachers fall silent, reluctant as they are to boo the hometown heroes). The outfield is no more settled today than it was then.

Meanwhile the worst case named Hebner, Ron Santo and Banks as the marginal men who might not step forward, and warned that Rizzo would regress. Banks put up a .968 OPS with 126 RBIs and won the organizational MVP. Hebner slashed 284/373/594 and pushed his way into more playing time all season. Rizzo broke out.

Where it did come true was the arm the preview never mentioned. Peterson went 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP across 17 starts and took the organizational Pitcher of the Year — the one thing that went right on a staff where everything else went wrong.

And there was Sammy Sosa, traded away in a slump in 2000 and bought back a year later off a 144-plate-appearance hot streak at Memphis. He hit 195/240/478 with 41 homers, walked almost never, and was worth nearly 2 wins below replacement. 41 homeruns (the bleachers cheer!). A negative WAR (the bleachers shrug and reach for their beer). Our own review of the deal put it more concisely: this feels like being robbed.

Key Changes

In: Brett Anderson (LAA); Dellin Betances (FA)
Out: Richie Hebner (LAA); Billy Herman (FA); CC Sabathia (MCG)

Opening Day Rookies: None

Best Case for 2002

Anderson is what his strikeout rate says he is, Taylor remembers 2000, and Peterson holds. Behind them Rick Reuschel keeps being the most valuable arm on the staff — he led all House of David pitchers in WAR last year out of a swing role — and Jenkins, who owns the best raw stuff in the organization, finally delivers on it.

The lineup does what it already does, with health. Browning plays 140 games, George Gore and his .389 on-base get a full season instead of half of one, Santo takes the step a 22-year-old with 29 homers is entitled to, and one of the Triple-A bats forces the issue.

In a weak division, that’s enough. Or, could be enough.

Worst Case for 2002

Peterson’s rookie year came with 63 strikeouts in 107 innings, which is the profile that tends to regress. Anderson’s move doesn’t take. Taylor is what he was last year rather than what he was in 2000, and the rotation is a committee with nobody up front for a 2nd straight season.

And the roster’s thin construction hurts. Craig Reynolds is going to get a lot of PA, backing up both Sandberg and Banks, and he doesn’t look like a WBL bat. If Banks slides, Sandberg ages, and Sosa keeps being a muscled bundle of empty power, the bombs will keep landing in the street behind the bleachers, and the club will keep losing 8-5.

Key Questions

  • Where does the first arm come from? This staff has no settled answer to who starts opening day and why. Taylor has the pedigree and a 5.90; Peterson has the results and a strikeout rate that argues with them; Anderson has the peripherals and a 4.34 ERA; Jenkins has, by some distance, the best raw arm in the org and a track record that has never once matched it.
  • Does anybody here get on base? Banks reached at .314, Sosa at .240, Hendricks at .291, Santo at .311. Frank Chance ran 43 steals out of a .322 on-base built on a .214 average, which is its own kind of achievement. The 2 genuinely patient bats — Rizzo at .391 and Gore at .389 — are the least celebrated men in the lineup, which tells you something about a fanbase that came for the 450-foot shot and is not going to be talked out of it.
  • What happens if a middle infielder goes down? Sandberg at 33 and Banks at 26 are the 2 best players on the team and they play the 2 positions with nothing behind them. Heliodoro Hidalgo, the 7th-ranked prospect in baseball, is a year away at Triple-A. This is the one hole on the roster that cannot be covered from what’s already in the building.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CHendricks D · Chance
1BRizzo B · Anson
2BSandberg A
SSBanks S · Reynolds
3BSanto C
LFStone C
CFGore C · Browning
RFSosa F
DHMcGwire · Beckwith
SPTaylor D · Anderson B · Peterson B · Reuschel D · Rush D · Jenkins · Clinton (IL)
RPSpooner B · Bauta D · Betances · Key · Shaw · Downs

John Beckwith is 20 and broke camp on a WBL roster having hit 4 home runs in a full Double-A season — the ceiling is enormous and the track record is a rumor. And Frank Chance is a catcher who stole 43 bases, which is not a sentence that gets written often; he is also the club’s answer against left-handed pitching and its leadoff man, at a position where the incumbent just won a Gold Glove.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power1B John BeckwithSP Jocko Flynn
Batting Eye1B Mark McGwireRF Olaf Henriksen
ContactCF Pete Browning1B Mark Grace
Running SpeedRF Sammy SosaRF Will Venable
Base StealingCF Pete BrowningSP George Zettlein; 2B Bingo DeMoss
IF Defense2B Ryne Sandberg3B Dave Malarcher; 2B Heliodoro Hidalgo
OF DefenseCF George Gore; RF Sammy SosaLF Sam Fuld
StuffRP Dellin BetancesSP Kerry Wood
ControlSP Jack W. TaylorRP Tom Dukes; SP George Zettlein
VelocityRP Dellin BetancesSP Kerry Wood

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (7)202BHeliodoro Hidalgo
2 (15)21SPJocko Flynn
3 (37)24CFDanny Green
4 (43)212BBingo DeMoss
5 (98)21LFCody Bellinger

Others: P Larry Dierker, 1B Mark Grace, P Jon Matlack, P Joe Nuxhall.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Cap Anson (12).

A year ago this list was 10 deep and led by Frank Grant, the 2nd-ranked prospect in baseball — a second baseman, traded to San Francisco in July for John Beckwith. Karl Spooner and Peterson graduated onto the staff, Anson onto the roster, and Dave Malarcher slid off the board entirely. What replaced them is, pointedly, middle infield: Hidalgo came from Kansas City in the Lee Smith deadline sale and ranks 7th in all of baseball, with Bingo DeMoss drafted to fill the need (it’s not clear where Hidalgo ends up defensively).

Underneath, the system is teenage arms and one very stuck bat. Jon Matlack is 19; Joe Nuxhall is 17 and Larry Dierker 19. And Mark Grace put up a 1.008 OPS at Triple-A at 28, but seems destined to a AAAA label or a change of scenery.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeSkeeter Barnes, 35Joe Nuxhall, 17
HeightDellin Betances, 6’7″Bunny Downs, 5’5″
OPSMark Grace, 1.008 (AAA)Darren Daulton, .437 (A)
HRErnie Banks, 59José Uribe, 1 (AA)
SBFrank Chance, 43
WAR (bat)Ryne Sandberg, 3.7Sammy Sosa, −1.9
WKyle Peterson, 15
SVAd Gumbert, 10 (AA)
ERALarry Dierker, 1.78 (A)Larry Jackson, 6.61
WAR (pit)Kyle Peterson, 4.9Larry Jackson, 0.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 95.2: Winter Meeting Trades

While there is a blockbuster, these were actually a pretty quiet Winter Meetings, with only four deals being made.

The Big One

MEM sends OF Mookie Betts, C Billy Bryan, P Jim Kaat, 3rd Round Pick to BRK for P Don Drysdale, P Red Ruffing, 5th Round Pick.

We start off with pretty much a blockbuster: Red Ruffing‘s signing turns out to be a sign and trade as Ruffing and disgruntled starter Don Drysdale head to Memphis for OF Mookie Betts, backup C Billy Bryan, and minor league P Jim Kaat. Brooklyn sends a 5th round pick and Memphis will send a 3rd round pick to even out the deal.

It turns out Drysdale was furious at being surpassed as the #1 starter for Brooklyn, and will now bring his near-manic intensity to the Red Sox, immediately stepping into the top of their rotation along with Stubby Overmire.

Cuban Giants Address Current Need

MCG sends P Jon Matlack, 2nd Round Pick to HOD for P CC Sabathia, 5th Round Pick.

The Cuban Giants addressed a clear need, bringing swingman CC Sabathia over from the House of David. They gave up a prized pitching prospect in Jon Matlack, and took the worst of a pick exchange (a 2nd for a 5th) to bring in Sabathia, who looks to have a shot at the Cuban Giants’ rotation if has a good Spring.

Coming Back Home

OTT sends P Dan Collins, 3rd Round Pick to MCG for P Steve Rogers.

This was about getting Rogers back to his historical franchise to see how that developed.

The Sea Lions Commit Even More

SFS sends IF Royce Clayton to POR for P Trevor Hoffman.

Portland entered these conversations hoping to get back draft picks; instead they ended up with a possible middle infielder for the future–look for an open competition with Clayton and Hughie Jennings in the Spring, while Hoffman walks into a dream situation–no pressure on a near guaranteed contender.

TWIWBL 89.2: Off Season Review – Wandering House of David

78 - 84, .481 pct.
4th in Marvin Miller Division, 7 GB

Overall

The House of David are just not very good. Last year, they edged into the playoffs, this year, they were a bit off that pace, but really there wasn’t a ton of difference. Which means there wasn’t much improvement.

It’s a team with some decent offensive pieces and some pitching potential, but also with enough obvious holes that it’s hard to see quite where the path to contention may lead. There are some cornerstones: offensively, Ernie Banks entered the superstar realm this year, Ryne Sandberg shows no signs of slowing down, Anthony Rizzo looks like the real deal, and Tony Conigliaro had one of the best debuts possible for a September callup.

Note the lack of discussion of pitchers …

What Went Right

Ernie Banks went very, very right: a .968 OPS, 59 homers, and 126 RBIs from SS puts Banks on the fringes of the MVP conversation. The House of David sport a brilliant keystone combination, with Banks and Ryne Sandberg. At 33, Sandberg continues to be one of the best 2B in the WBL, slashing 292/351/592 with solid defense.

Rizzo was a bit of a surprise, showing a rare mix of patience and power and laying claim to the 1B job, which was pretty much up in the air.

Richie Hebner slashed 284/373/594, demanding more and more playing time as the season progressed.

One of 2 notable reclamation projects, Mark McGwire, while not quite putting it all together, did impress. His slash line reveals a lot: 205/315/608 shows his patience, his world-class power, and his inability to do much else. Still, 22 homeruns in 56 games will turn some heads.

Kyle Peterson made 17 starts, going 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. His success came out of nowhere, but those are excellent numbers, and he’ll be expected to hold down a rotation spot next season.

Karl Spooner was quite effective from the pen, proving very hard to hit and compensating for marginal control with a high strikeout rate.

Rick Reuschel was steady all season, and while he may not be more than a rotation starter over time, the dependability means a lot for an otherwise beleaguered rotation.

ALL STARS

Ernie Banks
Lee Smith (Subsequently traded)
MAJOR AWARDS

Ernie Banks, All NL First Team, NL Silver Slugger SS
Elrod Hendricks, NL Gold Glove C
Bob Rush, NL Gold Glove P
Karl Spooner, All NL Rookie Team
RECOGNITIONS

Ernie Banks, NL 25 & Under Team
Richie Hebner, NL 23 & Under Team
Kyle Peterson, All NL Rookie 2nd Team
Craig Reynolds, All NL Rookie 2nd Team
Ryne Sandberg, ALL NL Third Team; NL Over 30 Team
Ron Santo, NL 21 & Under Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Ernie Banks, MVP
Kyle Peterson, Pitcher of the Year
Ryne Sandberg, Heart & Soul
Richie Hebner, Fan Favorite

Frank Dwyer, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Tony Conigliaro, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Jack Taylor got a lot of the blame for the House of David’s showing this year, but much of that was unfair. Yes, Taylor’s performance was a far cry from his dominant year 1, but (a) he recovered a bit as the season wore on and (b) 200 innings and a 12-10 record still holds some value. The real issue is that nobody other than Peterson was actually good, with Ferguson Jenkins, CC Sabathia, and Bob Rush all struggling (Rush was the best of this trio, Sabathia the worst).

Bruce Sutter couldn’t hold on to a WBL slot, ending the season in the minors after a disastrous 25 appearances resulting in an ERA over 8.00. As problematically, especially after Lee Smith‘s departure, nobody (other than Spooner) had provided any stability from the bullpen.

Elrod Hendricks provided gold glove level defense, but nothing else, eventually falling into a platoon with Frank Chance who, despite his speed (he lead the team with 43 steals), performed even worse offensively than Hendricks. So C in general was pretty much a black hole.

Craig Reynolds, Billy Williams, and Cap Anson were all given a chance and none could muster an OPS over .700.

The other reclamation project, Sammy Sosa was just eternally frustrating. Sosa walloped 41 homers, but unlike McGwire, couldn’t take a walk, leaging him with only power and some speed / defense on offer.

Once more, Pete Browning spent more time on the DL than on the field, but whereas he was incandescent last year when healthy, this year, he was merely adequate.

Transactions

March

IF Charlie Gehringer & 3rd Round Pick to DET for P Claude Osteen & 1st Round Pick

A clear win: Gehringer was solid for Detroit, but blocked here, and the 1st rounder has quite a bit of value.

C Gabby Hartnett, P Rollie Fingers & 4th Round Pick to MEM for OF Sammy Sosa.

Ugh. Sosa’s return was much heralded, but given how bad the House of David’s catchers were, this feels like being robbed.

July

IF Frank Grant to SFS for IF John Beckwith & 3rd Round Pick.

Interesting, and a deal that won’t be able to be judged for a few years. Grant was either blocked by Sandberg or his successor, but had little immediate value for the House of David.

IF Luis Aparicio, IF Jung Ho Kang, & 7th Round Pick to PHI for P Larry Jackson.

Jackson is solid and Kang looks to be the quintessential AAAA player, so this seems fine.

IF Joe Harris & P Lee Smith to KCM for OF Heliodoro Hidalgo, P Jimmy Key, & 3rd Round Pick.

A clear sign the House of David were giving up on the season. Given that, it seems fine–both Harris and Smith are well past 30.

August

None–all useful pieces had, I guess, already been moved.

Positional Overview

C

Who knows? Elrod Hendricks‘ glove has some value, but he looked completely overmatched at the plate. None of the youngsters seem ready yet, but Cap Anson, Frank Chance, and Darren Daulton all look good–and even Beckwith has seen some time behind the plate.

A strong Spring Training from Anson could earn him a roster spot, but it looks most likely that, without a trade, they head into next season hoping that Hendricks and Chance just somehow get better.

1B

Even with Anthony Rizzo‘s performance, there are some questions here. Rizzo has earned his spot, but there is a lot of other talent at first base: McGwire, Richie Hebner, even Cap Anson and, especially, Mark Grace, who slashed 324/395/613, from the minors.

2B

At 33, Ryne Sandberg still has a few years in the tank; behind him, the best talent is probably Billy Herman, who has looked overmatched in the WBL so far. This is also a possible position for Heliodoro Hidalgo and Dave Malarcher, but they may end up elsewhere.

SS

At 25, we would assume this is Ernie Banks for quite some time.

Behind him, though, it’s not terribly clear. Malarcher could play here, but veteran Craig Reynolds feels like the more likely option, with both José Uribe and John Peters also available as defense-first options.

3B

As the season went on, Hebner played here a bit, but the future really looks to belong to 21 year old Ron Santo, although this is also the most likely position for Beckwith and Malarcher, but that is tomorrow’s problem.

LF/RF

These spots are pretty wide open, and I would expect strong Spring Training competition between Pete Browning, Sammy Sosa, George Stone, Tony Conigliaro, Billy Williams, Cy Williams, and Tip O’Neill. Of those, Stone has the inside track on the LF job, which probably pushes O’Neill to the minors once more.

Cy and Billy Williams and Conigliaro were the best performers this season, but Billy struggled mightily in September with the big league club, and Cy has yet to face WBL pitching.

CF

Another bit of a logjam, with George Gore, Jim Edmonds, and Pete Browning all being happiest at this position. Gore and Edmonds are very, very similar, with Gore having produced just a bit more season over season, but if Browning can get back to his Year One levels, he’s the starter here.

At 30, Jerry Mumphrey keeps arguing for an opportunity, but he’s probably forced out once more.

The future looks good here, with either Hidalgo or Cody Bellinger likely to emerge as the most likely candidate to take over in a few years.

DH

Look for a mixture of McGwire, Hebner, and whoever loses the OF competition to get the at bats here.

SP

It’s a mess of question marks right now.

Can Taylor bounce back? Is Kyle Peterson for real? Can Jim Clinton, Bob Shaw, or, most likely, Rick Reuschel prove to be a reliable third starter?

Say Taylor and Peterson are set in the rotation, the Spring will see a strong competition between the others, as well as Bob Rush, Larry Jackson, Fergie Jenkins, Jimmy Key, and, depending on his recovery from injury, Kerry Wood.

There is some good talent in the system, led by teenagers Larry Dierker and Joe Nuxhall (still only 17).

RP

The only set spots are Karl Spooner and Ed Bauta, so there should be some competition here, starting with Bruce Sutter who, for the 3rd year running, will be given a shot at becoming the closer.

Beyond that, Scott Downs will get some time, and the team is open to Ad Brennan, Tom Dukes, Brian Holman, or George Gilpatrick showing they can handle life in the WBL.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 3
2nd Round: 1
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 0
5th Round: 1

A big draft for the House of David, with 6 picks in the first 3 rounds. There are a few WBL ready arms, aside from that, the lower end of the farm system could just be upgraded across the board.

TWIWBL 87.13: The Starters

On to the starters! Same Tier system.

This is everyone who qualified for the ERA crown, plus a heaping handful of others who made at least 10 starts during the season. If a player had less than 162 innings, they are (a) probably knocked down a tier and (b) their name is prefaced by a * and italicized.

We’ve leaned on valuing IP in these rankings, perhaps a bit too much. But these are your starters, and they need to show up, game after game. It also means the Tiers are a little different: there are D-Tier pitchers here that you would welcome at the back end of your rotation, and it’s really only some of them, and the F Tier, that are truly an issue.

Our usual practices prevail: bold for top 3 and italics for bottom 3. Pitchers with below 162 IP aren’t included in the top/bottom markers.

#S Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
NLKCMA. Rube Foster2411-83.302041.02.189 BA
.219 BABIP
0.7 HR/9
3.63 FIP
NLINDLuis Padrón2223-33.222351.04220 K
.192 BA
.225 BABIP
NLHOUToad Ramsey2316-103.232230.97282 K
.182 BA
11.4 K/9
3.8 K/BB
3.40 FIP

Just look at all that bold.

It’s been these 3 all year, and there’s a hair’s breadth between them. The analytics like Toad Ramsey, but Luis Padrón‘s record is stunning and while his ERA crown came by the absolute thinnest of margins, it did come.

Knuckleballers are always a bit unpredictable season-to-season, and it may very well be that A. Rube Foster has the best career of these three. But great things are expected of each of them.

#A Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALSFSLefty Grove2716-64.402091.15230 K
2.2 BB/9
9.9 K/9
4.4 K/BB
ALMCGJosé Méndez2313-64.532331.11201 K
2.2 BB/9
NLBRKFernando Valenzuela2414-53.691631.081 Sv; 4 H
BBB/
MCG
Jim Whitney2410-73.832021.101 Sv; 2 H
NLBRKSmokey Joe Williams2412-133.932021.230.8 HR/9
3.55 FIP
NLKCMSmokey Joe Wood2215-124.111911.13

Lefty Grove and Smokey Joe Williams each have an argument to move up a tier, but are held back, Grove’s instance by his ERA, in Williams’ by his record. Still, they are the class of this group.

If José Méndez hadn’t led the league in innings, he would probably drop down a level, but we’re nitpicking: these are staff aces on most teams. Note that Miami, Brooklyn, and Kansas City already have 2 pitchers each on this list.

#B Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALLAABrett Anderson2211-64.341891.12
NLHOU* Ice Box Chamberlain194-43.561091.131 Sv; 1 H
NLHOURoger Clemens2517-103.712111.13
ALSFSBump Hadley2318-64.101891.180.9 HR/9
4.2 BB/9
NLPHIHardie Henderson2118-123.782091.234.2 BB/9
1.7 KK/B
NLBRKOrel Hershiser2719-53.691851.21
NLHOD* Kyle Peterson228-33.801071.16
ALNYYAndy Pettitte3318-94.432011.21
ALSFSEddie Plank2720-74.422101.31
ALCAGEd Walsh2510-113.942051.151 Sv
201 K
.225 BABIP

Hardie Henderson, Roger Clemens, and perhaps Eddie Plank (but that would be giving an awful lot of weight on 20 victories) could all be nudged up, but I’m comfortable with this. These are all front of rotation hurlers, with the only real surprise being Brett Anderson, who quietly excelled in a difficult year for Los Angeles. Ed Walsh, last year’s Rookie of the Year, avoided the sophomore slump entirely.

If you’re looking for skepticism, both Ice Box Chamberlain (due to age) and Kyle Peterson (due to coming out of nowhere) are decent bets to regress.

#C Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALPORWalter Ball268-74.261421.20
NLPHISteve Carlton2512-135.051871.24
NLINDJohnny Cueto2912-144.622121.14
NLHOM* Doug Drabek256-84.761471.171 H
NLBRKDon Drysdale2211-85.661861.28
ALLAADwight Gooden2211-114.361941.29
ALNYYRon Guidry2811-74.512081.24251 K
10.9 K/9
NLOTTRoy Halladay2915-95.171951.262.2 BB/9
ALPORWalter Johnson2013-124.282141.28
NLBRK* Sandy Koufax216-34.931191.162 H
ALMEMStubby Overmire2513-104.722121.266.1 K/9
NLNYGGaylord Perry2212-154.341891.12
NLKCMJosé Rijo268-125.091791.26
NLPHICharles Rogan2712-94.511881.24
ALCLEBill Steen2613-104.711931.331.9 K/BB
NLNYGDon Sutton2517-85.231741.25
NLPHIJM Ward206-105.011961.16

Gaylord Perry and JM Ward were perhaps the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year: a bit of good fortune, and either could be several tiers above. If anyone is ranked too highly, it’s probably Bill Steen. There are a lot of names here that could easily take a step forward–Steve Carlton, Don Drysdale, and Walter Johnson especially.

Sandy Koufax blossomed in the bullpen after losing his rotation spot, but Brooklyn is likely to try him again as a starter next season.

Joe Rogan is just a remarkable talent. Everyone else here has great value solely from being on the mound: add Rogan’s bat and … yoikes.

#D Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALMEMLen Barker2511-124.991801.44
ALSFS* Tommy Bridges376-75.381461.21
ALPORBert Blyleven2110-115.032041.32
NLKCMFrank Castillo2312-75.211931.32
ALSFS* Watty Clark266-44.021341.302 H
NLPHI* Ray Collins244-74.621211.271 H
ALCLE* Bob Feller2013-34.301531.34
NLBBB* Lefty Gomez279-94.901541.302 H
ALNYY/
CAG
Waite Hoyt2411-44.891691.444.1 BB/9
NLBRKFrank Knauss2312-64.551801.34
NLHOMFrancisco Liriano2310-125.031811.38
NLBBBGreg Maddux2310-145.351951.2859 HRA
.225 BABIP
6.50 FIP
ALBALDennis Martínez2412-85.122021.42
NLNYGChristy Mathewson227-165.612101.40207 K
ALPOR* Joseíto Muñoz204-44.561011.371 Sv; 2 H
ALBAL* Jim Palmer258-84.881381.371 H
NLBBBAlejandro Peña268-115.591801.31
NLHOMBilly Pierce3010-115.771731.36
NLHOD* Rick Reuschel308-84.611351.311 Sv; 1 H
NLHODBob Rush2411-95.281861.322 H
NLHODCC Sabathia285-155.892021.351 Sv; 1 H
64 HRA
3.2 HR/9
6.90 FIP
ALCAGBen Sheets276-125.881651.321 H
NLOTT* Bill Smith2610-33.771241.351 H
NLHOUStephen Strasburg259-105.871691.37
NLHODJack Taylor2612-105.901921.42.291 BA
6.4 K/9
ALCLECy Young2515-95.381991.39.307 BABIP

There are some absolute conundrums here. Greg Maddux‘s issues are obvious in the final column: his BABIP is top-3 in the league, showing just how good his stuff is. But he has to keep the ball in the ballpark. At least once in a while.

Christy Mathewson and Cy Young seem like they could do more than be massive inning eaters, but they need to be harder to hit to make the jump forward. But pitching is weird: Jack Taylor and Gerrit Cole (see below) were among the best on the mound last season, and struggled mightily this.

Bob Feller would warrant a bump as well with a few more solid starts.

#F Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALCAGMark Buehrle318-125.111851.386.3 K/9
ALMEM* David Bush269-96.581491.32
ALLAAGerrit Cole267-156.361661.432.9 HR/9
6.52 FIP
ALMCGCole Hamels2511-126.181781.4263 HRA
.293 BA
3.2 HR/9
3.7 K/BB
NLNYG* Carl Hubbell266-105.751601.291 H
NLHOM* Cliff Lee308-45.301141.323 H
NLHOURoy Oswalt287-116.531811.49.295 BA
.305 BABIP
NLOTTCharles Radbourn2712-135.892021.35
ALDETCharlie Root3111-106.151991.4259 HRA
ALLAATom Seaver237-85.811641.44
BBB/
CAG
* Sam Streeter253-115.631231.34
ALPORDizzy Trout295-125.931621.504.1 BB/9
1.8 K/BB
ALDETJustin Verlander255-126.481691.52.310 BABIP
NLIND* Doc White275-126.551431.341 Sv; 3 H

Most of these issues are clear: too many homeruns, too many walks, way too many runners on the basepaths. Maybe Old Hoss Radbourn could argue to be one tier up. Maybe.

Other than that, it must be said there is a ton of talent here: Roy Oswalt, Tom Seaver, and Justin Verlander jump out as most likely to bounce back next year.

It must be said there are probably 2 dozen more names that could be listed in the F Tier. Check out the individual team maps as they are published for those, but suffice to say that, when a pitcher goes down in flames in the WBL, they burn awfully bright.

TWIWBL 87.2: The Year in Review

Just getting this out of the way early … there was way too much offense this year. I blame myself. We picked 2001 as the base year for the game, and that seems to have resulted in an offensive boom.

In reality, MLB posted a .759 OPS in 2001 with an aggregate 264/335/427 slash line. The WBL slashed 261/336/506 for an .842 OPS. And therein lies the problem: the rest of the line is fine, the .080 increase in SLG is … a lot, and is responsible for about a .65 increase in runs per game (4.96 in historical 2001, 5.60 in the WBL Year 2).

This resulted in 2001 owning virtually every single season batting record: only Mike Trout‘s 131 singles in Year 1 survived the onslaught. Everything else came this season.

And, a couple of the marks eclipsed the MLB historical records:

Total Bases: 492, Ty Cobb (DET). Obliterates Babe Ruth‘s mark of 457 in 1921.
Doubles: 72, Ty Cobb (DET). Earl Webb had 67 in 1931.

And, of course, Ruth tied Barry Bonds‘ 2001 homerun record of 73.

So that’s not horrible: Ty Cobb had a stunning year, and I can’t be made at Cobb and Ruth peppering the record book (nor, honestly, at Josh Gibson‘s .400 average, a WBL record).

But I would like to see about 3/4 of a run per game to disappear …

And, of course, if we have record breaking frequencies of homeruns, someone has to be giving up all those taters. Thirteen hurlers gave up more than the MLB record 50 homeruns, with CC Sabathia (64) and Cole Hamels (63) being absolutely rocked throughout the season.

At the team level we had similar issues:

  • Kansas City’s 444 doubles are 20% more than the historical mark set by the 2004 Boston Red Sox.
  • And then there are homeruns: only 6 teams had fewer than the all time ream record of 307, shared by the 2019 Twins and the 2023 Braves.
  • In a bit of a shock, San Francisco’s 393 steals top the all time record of 347 by the 1922 New York Giants.
  • Unsurprisingly, 5 teams eclipsed the .872 OPS record of the 1927 New York Yankees.

These all had equivalents on the mound, where the all-time historical runs allowed and homeruns allowed records were shattered in the WBL this year.

Look, all of this is a little bit of nit-picking: the league was competitive, and I totally expect off the charts performances in a league peppered with all-time great players. But 18 players with 50+ homeruns is just too many, even if most of the names range from yeah, he did that to ok, in this league that’s plausible.

I mean the whole Ron Blomberg fiasco is still out there, but that will be the topic of another post …



TWIWBL 81.2 Spotlight on the New York Gothams

This team really should be better than this. But if you really look at the talent on the roster, their struggles make sense.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

This is what happens when you struggle to hit with mediocre pitching. While a monstrous close to the season could maybe possibly see the Gothams edging into the playoffs, really, this year is toast for them.

THE OFFENSE

There are a few very high end highlights, and a couple feel-good stories. But … it needs to get better across the board.

#What’s Going Right

Willie Mays is a spectacular talent: power, speed, defense, and at 24, coming into his prime. He leads the Gothams in homeruns, RBI, R, and (for batting qualifiers) OPS.

Buster Posey‘s raw numbers trail Mays, but he’s a catcher, and an OPS over .900 from a solid backstop is remarkable. He’s backed up by Dick Dietz, who may be the best offensively performing backup catcher in the league.

Last years AAA MVP, Benny Kauff, has stepped right into a WBL role, sitting 2nd on the team in most offensive rates.

Will Clark has emerged as an excellent 1B, with an OPS around .950.

Larry Doyle has exploded this year, outpacing even Mays with most of his rate stats. Doyle is 35, so he may not be a long-term solve there, but he’s been a revelation.

3B has been an issue for the Gothams all year, but it feels like Jim Ray Hart may have claimed it moving forward.

#What’s Not Going Right

The rest of the lineup is essentially a mess. LF and SS are weak, and the people that have been run through those, plus 2B and 3B before the emergence of Doyle and Hart, have been ridiculously bad. Jo-Jo Moore, Terry Turner, Pete Runnels, Eugenio Suárez, George Van Haltren, Ryan Zimmerman, Steve Kemp, Carl Furillo … none of them could stick with the WBL club.

THE PITCHING

There was such potential here. You have the rotation anchored by Christy Mathewson, Gaylord Perry, and Don Sutton, and one of the best bullpens in the league, led by Brian Wilson, but also featuring Mike Norris.

It didn’t work out: Mathewson has been shockingly mediocre, Perry and Sutton merely good, Norris is showing signs of age, and Wilson spent a fair bit of time on the DL.

#What’s Going Right

Brian Wilson is excellent, a true shutdown closer at the end of the bullpen, and he looks fully recovered from his earlier injury.

Mike Norris, while not as incandescent as last year, has been excellent behind Wilson.

Gaylord Perry has excellent peripheral numbers despite a mediocre win/loss record and ERA.

#What’s Not Going Right

Mathewson hasn’t been outright bad, and, as always, he chews up innings. But a 7-14 record and an ERA in the mid 5.00’s is not what the Gothams expect from him.

The back end of the rotation has been a mess, with Rube Waddell, Carl Hubbell, and others all sort of stumbling through their opportunities.

The much traveled Kent Tekulve has done well with the Gothams, but is insisting on pursuing free agency, so his signing ends up not mattering much for the team overall.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

The system is ranked dead last, but may not actually be that bad. There is some high level talent, especially in OF Kyle Tucker and 3B Howard Johnson and Sean Burroughs. On the mound, William VanLandingham and Masahiro Tanaka have some upside as well.

OK, maybe it is that bad.

WHAT’S NEEDED

A general upgrade of talent to surround the stars and the stars–especially Mathewson–stepping forward.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

  • Like so many other teams, the rotation is key. Yes.
  • The infield feels fragile, so how that plays out will bear watching. Yes. Fragile is an interesting word–they certainly broke apart.
  • How will the Gothams get PA’s for Benny Kauff? Quite easily as the fulltime DH became the answer.

FEATURED SERIES

We’ll focus on the 3 game matchup with the House of David, only becuase, if the Gothams can sweep this series, they may actually have some Wild Card hopes.

Projected Starters

House of David starter listed first.

Jack Taylor (10-10, 6.07) @ Christy Mathewson (7-14, 5.36)
Bob Rush (10-7, 5.28) @ Gaylord Perry (11-12, 4.99)
CC Sabathia (5-11, 5.77) @ Don Sutton (15-7, 5.01)

These are unlikely to be the actual starters as both teams are auditioning rotation candidates as the season winds down.

Game One

Game 1 of this series which may determine the fate of the House of David this year. Both teams trot out their struggling aces–Jack Taylor for the House of David and Christy Mathewson for the Gothams.

Anthony Rizzo gave the House of David the lead in the first with his 24th homer of the year. Ernie Banks tripled and scored on a single from Ryne Sandberg, doubling the lead to 2-0. After Jim Edmonds scored on a passed ball, Rizzo did it again, this time with a 3 run shot. Banks followed with a solo shot of his own, making it 7-0.

Davey Johnson plated a run in the bottom of the 2nd, but there was still a long way to go.

Matty didn’t make it out of the 3rd, chased from the mound by Jim Edmonds‘ 18th of the year, replaced by Guy Hecker.

More runs were scored, but this was a rout. The only real drama was if Rizzo–who launched his 3rd of the game earlier–would become the 2nd player in WBL history to hit 4 in a game. He had 2 chances, but neither resulted in a homerun. Still, Rizzo had himself a day: 5 hits, 5 RBIs, and 4 runs scored. Sandberg added 4 hits and 4 RBIs.

Bob Shaw and Karl Spooner were solid in relief of Taylor, while the less said about the Gothams’ efforts from the mound, the better.

HOD 15 (Taylor 11-10) @ NYG 6 (Mathewson 7-15)
HRs: HOD – Rizzo 3(26), Banks (55), Edmonds (18), Sandberg (38), Stone (13); NYG – Thompson (2), Buford (8), Terry (4).
Box Score

Game Two

Bob Rush will take on Gaylord Perry in game 2.

Johnny Callison‘s 32nd homerun of the year put the Gothams in front 1-0 in the bottom of the 2nd, and his 33rd doubled the lead in the 4th.

Perry was sailing into the 5th, until a couple hit batters loaded the bases and Anthony Rizzo delivered a 2 run single to right, tying the game.

New York pulled into the lead again via a 2 run homerun from Buster Posey. A double from Willie Mays chased Rush. His relief, Ferguson Jenkins, got 2 quick outs, but gave up a double to Bill Terry, plating Mays and making it a 5-2 game.

Perry got 2 outs in the 7th before walking Richie Hebner. He had a good outing, fanning 10 and allowing only the 2 runs.

Ben Oglive, mired in one of the worst starts to a WBL career we’ve seen, went deep for his first career homerun for the final margin of victory. So, a split to the series, with a deciding game 3 on tap.

HOD 2 (Rush 10-8) @ NYG 6 (Perry 12-12; Waddell 3 H)
HRs: HOD – none; NYG – Callison 2 (33), Posey (35), Oglivie (1).
Box Score

Game Three

A win for the Gothams would pull them to within 3 games of the Wild Card spot, so there is still a bit to play for here.

CC Sabathia will take the mound for the House of David while New York will turn to Pete Donohue, giving him his 4th start of the season.

Buster Posey, Willie Mays, and Will Clark each took Sabathia deep in the home first, giving New York an early 3-0 lead. Mark McGwire got one back in the 2nd, but Donohue worked out of a jam, escaping with the 3-1 lead.

Robby Thompson launched one in the 2nd with a runner on, extending the edge to 5-1.

Sabathia settled down, but the damage was done. Donohue lasted into the 7th, and the combination of Aaron Loup, Santiago Casilla, and Brian Wilson kept the House of David under wraps.

HOD 2 (Sabathia 5-12) @ NYG 5 (Donohue 3-1; Wilson 19 Sv; Loup 1 H)
HRs: HOD – McGwire (21); NYG – Posey (36), Mays (45), Clark (30), Thompson (3).
Box Score

While a sweep would have been nice, taking 2 out of 3 keeps New York in the running for the Wild Card, leaving that position no clearer than before.

TWIWBL 80.2 Spotlight on the Wandering House of David

While theoretically based in Chicago, the House of David travel the backroads of the country with a portable stadium used for their home games. It’s a life.

On the field, it’s an example of how important upper end performance is to a team, and how painful it can be when it falls off.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

While they are still within 2 games of the final NL Wild Card spot, it’s been a disappointing year for the House of David. The offense has been decent enough–and there are some clear positive indications for next year–but the pitching has been a struggle. Overall, a lot can be placed at the feet of Pete Browning and Jack Taylor, superstars last year who have failed to deliver this season.

THE OFFENSE

It’s a good offense. The BA and OBP are perhaps a little low, but there’s enough power to compensate, and ultimately, this ain’t the issue with the team.

#What’s Going Right

Ernie Banks has exploded into superstardom, with a 1.031 OPS and 117 RBI’s heading into September. Banks is 3rd in the league in homers with 54, and is clearly the dominant cog in the House of David offense, and perhaps the dominant offensive SS in the league.

Richie Hebner, not projected as a starter, also has an OPS over 1.000, and has edged into an everyday role, slashing 296/387/636 in just under 300 PAs.

The House of David as found 2 standout 1Bs this year in Anthony Rizzo and Mark McGwire. McGwire has played in just under 40 games, but is managing to maintain an OPS around .950 with a BA barely over .200: that’s a lot of walks and a lot of homeruns (17 of each in 140 PAs). Rizzo is slashing 276/389/581.

Ryne Sandberg continues to deliver at 2B, with 35 homers and a .930 OPS.

Ron Santo, has been mired in a slump recently, but still has an OPS around .850.

George Stone, George Gore, and Jim Edmonds all cluster around an .800 OPS in the OF, with Gore the most effective of the 3, taking most of the CF time from Edmonds.

Sammy Sosa has 37 homers, 2nd on the team.

#What’s Not Going Right

Pete Browning has been hurt, limiting his availability to about 75 games. More importantly, when healthy, last year’s superstar has struggled, with an OPS under .750.

Sammy Sosa‘s 37 homeruns are part of a .750 OPS as the immensely talented OF struggles constantly to put good wood on the ball.

Combine this with the above and the OF picture is just horribly confused. Gore, Stone, Edmonds, Sosa, and Browning (and the supernova debut of Tony Conigliaro) all result in none of the OF spots having a clear claimant.

Elrod Hendricks has been … not terrible, but not at all good. 22 homeruns is nice from a catcher, but a sub .700 OPS is not.

Frank Chance–given every, um, chance, to supplant Hendricks–has an even lower OPS, although he has shown a decent ability to get on base.

THE PITCHING

The House of David entered the season concerned about how they would fill out the rotation behind Jack Taylor. Now they’re worried about all of the staff, including Taylor. It’s not pretty.

#What’s Going Right

Bob Rush, who leads the team in wins with 10, has been quite solid, and CC Sabathia has pitched far better than his 5-11 record would indicate.

Youngster Kyle Peterson has been a revelation, with a 3.51 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 11 starts.

Veteran lefty Jimmy Key has done well out of the pen. But well in this context is an ERA just over 5.00 and a WHIP hovering in the 1.20 range. So … not great.

Having traded away or demoted all of their closers, Karl Spooner has quite unexpectedly stepped into the spotlight and pitched quite well at the end of games.

#What’s Not Going Right

Taylor has been awful for much of the year, with an ERA well over 6.00 most of the season. Now, it must be said, he’s pitched significantly better of late, winning his last 5 decisions and dropping his ERA by roughly a run.

They’ve run a lot of arms through the rotation, with Frank Sullivan, Kerry Wood, Ferguson Jenkins, and Rick Reuschel all getting at least 5 starts. Of those, only Reuschel has been passable.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

It’s a very high ranked system and, honestly, it’s not hard to see why.

There is star potential in the OF in Cody Bellinger and Heliodoro Hidalgo, on the IF with Darren Daulton, Cap Anson and Dave Malarcher. On the mound, it seems like some arms will come through from the group of Larry Dierker, Bill Lee, Eddie Rommel, Ad Gumbert, and Joe Nuxhall.

Danny Green, Tip O’Neill, Frank Dwyer, Bunny Downs, and Chris Brown may all see some WBL time as well. So there is some help on the way in terms of talent.

The challenge is that much of the talent is positionally blocked: the OF just gets more crowded, 3B is pretty much set, etc. Daulton has the clearest path, but is still a year or two away.

WHAT’S NEEDED

Probably a blockbuster trade or two to obtain some pitching and clear out some of the positional redundancy.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

  • How does the team integrate its considerable young talent into the roster as the season progresses? As many as 8 spots on the pitching staff are available, as are the backup C and IF jobs. This is probably the first of these that is totally off base. So much optimism in the Spring, crashed on the rocks of the pitching mound. That said, Santo, Hebner, Chance, Rizzo, Sosa, and Banks are all 25 or younger, so in that sense, the focus on the development of the young talent was correct.

FEATURED SERIES

We’ll focus on the 3 game matchup with Homestead. Currently, the two teams are 4th and 5th in the Wild Card race, separated by only .5 of a game. A sweep here either way would solidify the postseason claim of either side.

Projected Starters

House of David starter listed first.

Kyle Peterson (7-2, 3.51) @ Francisco Liriano (8-11, 5.18)
Jack Taylor (9-10, 6.02) @ Doug Drabek (4-6, 4.98)
Bob Rush (10-7, 5.42) @ Cliff Lee (6-3, 5.44)

If the projected starters hold, it looks as good as it can for the House of David, giving them a decent shot to take 2 out of 3 … but a sweep would be better.

Game One

On the one hand, this is a September matchup between 2 disappointing teams, both sitting a few games below .500. But. Homestead is only 1.5 games off the Wild Card pace, and the House of David is merely .5 a game behind them.

So here we go, with something to play for.

The impressive Kyle Peterson takes the mound for the House of David, while the Grays counter with their erstwhile #1 starter, Francisco Liriano.

The House of David took an early lead when, after a double by Craig Reynolds, Frank Chance legged out an infield hit to plate a run. Chance was thrown out trying to steal, but Pete Browning followed a Richie Hebner double with an RBI single for the 2-0 lead.

Rick Reichardt got one back with his 37th homer of the year in the bottom of the 4th and then, an inning later, Honus Wagner and Andy Van Slyke each doubled, tying the game. Mike Epstein hit a dribbler that found its way to dead space, plating Van Slyke so, after 5 innings, Homestead led, 3-2.

But, no worries for the House of David: after all, they have Tony Conigliaro. The supernova like debut for the young OF continued, as he ripped his 6th homerun 1n 17 at bats off Liriano in the 7th, tying the game. And then, a familiar disaster for the House of David: Pete Browning being helped off the field with an injury. This time, it was legging out a double, plating Chance with the go-ahead run.

Van Slyke tied it up in the bottom of the 9th with a double off Ed Bauta. That setup intentional walks to load the bases, with Bauta facing Reichardt with the game on the line. Reichardt did his job, lifting a decent pitch far enough into LF to score the tagging Van Slyke, giving Homestead the first game of the series.

Browning had 3 hits before his injury, and Wagner rapped out 3 hits for the Grays.

HOD 4 (Bauta 4-5, BSv 6; Downs H 1; Spooner H 3) @ HOM 5 (Lindblom 8-4)
HRs: HOD – Conigliaro (6); HOM – Reichardt (37).
Box Score

Browning headed to the DL after the game, hopefully to return before the season closes out, with the House of David recalling young IF Dave Malarcher.

Game Two

With Jack Taylor not quite rested, the House of David will go with Jimmy Key, giving the veteran lefty his 2nd start of the season against Homestead’s Doug Drabek.

Key struggled off the bat, surrendering back to back homeruns to Josh Gibson and Willie Stargell in the bottom of the 1st for an early 3-0 lead for the Grays. An Andrew McCutchen homerun, a Judy Johnson triple, and Stargell’s 2nd shot of the game chased Key in the 2nd inning, but the runs kept coming via a 2 run single from Napoleon Lajoie, making it 10-0 after 2 innings.

More runs scored, which really made the game a chance for each team to empty their benches, including a WBL debut for the recently recalled Dave Malarcher.

The House of David avoided a shutout on a 2-run double from Tony Conigliaro in the 9th, but that was cold comfort in a 16-2 loss.

McCutchen, Lajoie, Honus Wagner, and Johnson each had 3 hits for Homestead, with McCutchen driving in 4 and Gibson 3.

HOD 2 (Key 3-1) @ HOM 16 (Drabek 5-6)
HRs: HOD – none; HOM – Stargell 2 (47), Gibson (38), McCutchen (21).
Box Score

Game Three

This was not a good time for the House of David to not show up … they head into the third game of the series having dropped to 3.5 games off the Wild Card pace (while Homestead has moved to only a single game back of Kansas City).

The House of David will send Jack Taylor to the hill, with Homestead countering with Hal Carlson, making his 2nd start of the season.

It started well for the House of David: Carlson loaded the bases, then gave up a 3-run double to Sammy Sosa. Richie Hebner added a solo shot–his 23rd homer of the year–in the 2nd, upping the lead to 4-0.

Honus Wagner cut the lead to 4-1 with an RBI double in the bottom of the 2nd, then Willie Stargell closed the game to 4-3 with his 48th homerun of the year.

The House of David touched Carlson for one more run in the 5th on an RBI double from Anthony Rizzo, but again Taylor gave it back, this time on a 2-run double from Josh Gibson, tying the game at 5.

Carlson was replaced by David Price, who promptly gave up a moon shot to Sosa: 6-5, House of David. Ron Santo‘s 28th of the year gave the House of David a 2 run edge heading into the bottom of the 9th, when they turned to Ed Bauta, who easily closed it out.

HOD 7 (Taylor 10-10; Bauta 5 Sv; Sullivan 1 H; Spooner 4 H) @ HOM 5 (Price 1-1)
HRs: HOD – Hebner (23), Sosa (38), Santo (27); HOM – Stargell (48).
Box Score

So … by salvaging the final game, the House of David maintain touch with the Wild Card race, but just barely.

TWIWBL 66.6: Marvin Miller Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Kansas City Monarchs29-21.580
Indianapolis ABC’s28-23.5491.5
Wandering House of David23-26.4695.5
Houston Colt 45s23-29.4427
Birmingham Black Barons17-35.32713
Marvin Miller Division | 28 May

#Houston Colt 45s

Something is just not right with young Bret Saberhagen. The Colt 45s moved him down to AAA, hoping he can recover his command there. Needing a starter, they promoted teenage phenom Leon Day for his first taste of WBL action since last season.

Jim O’Rourke‘s strong performance since his recall meant that, when George Brett was available for recall from a rehab assignment, Russ Adams was the odd man out, heading to AAA.

Toad Ramsey improved to 9-2, allowing only 2 hits and 2 runs over 8 innings while striking out 14 in a 6-2 win over Birmingham. Ramsey became the first hurler in the WBL to eclipse 100 K’s on the season.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

Johnny Bench‘s poor start has finally impacted the ABC’s lineup construction, with the all-star catcher from last season dropping to 6th. It didn’t help, as Bench whiffed in all 4 of his at-bats, but Indianapolis used a solo homer from Oscar Charleston to edge Homestead 1-0 despite managing only 3 hits. Johnny Cueto, Sad Sam Jones, Rob Murphy, and Rob Dibble combined on the shutout, striking out 16.

Luis Padrón is dominating on the mound right now: the ABC’s scored 11 runs in the 3rd inning, but the story of the game was Padrón, who took a no-hitter into the 9th against the Grays, retired the first batter, gave up a single to Andrew McCutchen, and promptly induced a double-play for the 1-hitter. In doing so, Padrón dropped his ERA to 3.66 and improved his record to 9-1. Dave Henderson, Joey Votto, and Barry Larkin each drove in 3 while Larkin, Charleston, and George Foster each had 3 hits.

It wasn’t all good news for Indianapolis, however: Ed Charles headed to the DL, expected to miss a couple weeks with Robin Ventura being recalled from AAA.

#Kansas City Monarchs

A. Rube Foster moved into the Monarch’s rotation.

Despite a shaky outing, Smoky Joe Wood helped himself with his first homerun of the year, improving his record to 6-3 in a 14-6 win over the House of David. Stan Musial had 3 homeruns–one an inside the park job– and Willie McGee and Ted Simmons also went deep for the Monarchs. Musial has hit well this year, but without much power, having only one dinger coming into today’s game.

Two homeruns from Albert Pujols were enough to force extra innings, but not enough to win as the Monarchs fell to the House of David in 11 innings, 6-5.

#Wandering House of David

CC Sabathia replaced Frank Sullivan in the starting rotation for the House of David; one consequence of this is preserving Wade Miley as the sole lefty in their bullpen despite his recent struggles.

Sabathia rewarded the choice immediately, twirling a 5 hit shutout over Brooklyn in his first start. Sabathia walked 2 and fanned 3, leveling his record at 2-2 and supported by homeruns from Elrod Hendricks and Richie Hebner.

Ryne Sandberg went deep twice, but it wasn’t enough as the House of David fell to Brooklyn, 11-5. Hebner, recently installed as the House of David’s leadoff batter, did the same, going deep twice in a 9-4 loss to the Royal Giants.

Jim Edmonds went deep twice and Sammy Sosa, who entered the game as a pinch-runner, delivered a walkoff shot in the bottom of the 10th in a 4-2 win over Kansas City.

TWIWBL 63.6: Marvin Miller Division

#Birmingham Black Barons

Jim Whitney replaces John Malarkey in the Black Barons’ rotation.

Birmingham has some infield questions to answer, but for the time being, will live with Hank Aaron (far better suited to the OF) being their only alternative at 2B to Cupid Childs.

Larry Benton will miss about a year with elbow surgery. Bill Phyle was recalled, assumedly for a longer period than the first time, during which he saw no action.

#Houston Colt 45’s

David Clyde–out since early last season–started an injury rehab assignment.

Roger Clemens had a poor start, leaving him unable to become the league’s first 6 game winner, but Jimmy Wynn‘s second dinger (and 4th run scored) of the game was a walkoff shot in the bottom of the 11th inning. It was a wild game, as homers by George Brett and Craig Biggio (pinch-hitting) kept the game going in the bottom of the 10th and 11th innings.

Wynn again hit 2, but this time, after a 7 run comeback, the Colt 45’s couldn’t pull it off, losing 11-9 to the House of David in another worryingly bad start from Roy Oswalt.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

George Foster‘s 4th homerun of the year was a grand slam in the top of the 9th, leading the ABC’s to a sudden 4-2 victory over Ottawa.

Oscar Charleston had 5 hits and Adam Dunn crushed a walkoff homerun in the bottom of the 10th as the ABCs came from behind to top Birmingham, 7-5.

#Wandering House of David

Kerry Wood took Wade Miley‘s spot in the House of David’s rotation, and Orlando Cabrera was moved to AAA to clear space for Frank Grant‘s return from a rehab assignment.

Frank Chance had 4 steals but the House of David was unable to hold onto several leads, falling to Houston in 11 innings.

Miley was pressed into an emergency start … and immediately made everyone question their decisions, allowing only 2 hits and 1 run in 7 innings in clearly his best start of the year. It was an encouraging game for the House of David: Grant had 2 hits in his debut, Anthony Rizzo went deep twice, and Elrod Hendricks (2 hits, 1 HR) and Sammy Sosa (2 hits) showed signs of breaking out of their funks.

Ernie Banks went deep twice and the House of David withstood a massive comeback by Houston, holding on for an 11-8 victory. After rough outings from Rick Reuschel and CC Sabathia, Fergie Jenkins, Ed Bauta, and Bruce Sutter shut it down, allowing only 2 hits over the last 3+ innings.

Banks did it again, hitting 2 homeruns in a 7-6 victory over the Gothams. Sosa had 2 homeruns as well, including the game winning shot in the bottom of the 10th. The House of David would be encouraged by Wood’s first start of the year, in which he pitched 6 innings, fanning 10. The victory went to Sutter, who improved to 1-1 with a perfect 1+ innings of relief.

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