Baseball The Way It Never Was

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Year III Season Preview: Memphis Red Sox

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Red Sox have never contended. They have always had bats; this off-season they’ve moved more aggressively than any other team in the WBL to address their rotation needs.

First, the bats: Ted Williams continues to sit barely outside the truly elite of the league, slashing 303/423/616 at 22. Manny Ramírez hit 46 home runs, Gabby Hartnett hit 41 from behind the plate, David Ortiz hit 34 in barely 100 games, Reggie Smith hit 34 more. And all of that on a team that lost 89 games.

There is a thin line between acting aggressively and panic. Memphis sold Mookie Betts, a breakout OF, to Brooklyn for Don Drysdale and Red Ruffing. Then it sold Dobie Moore — a 20-year-old shortstop who had just made the AL All Rookie 2nd Team, and the only real hope the middle infield has produced in years — to Los Angeles for Tom Seaver.

So the rotation now reads Stubby Overmire, Drysdale, Seaver, Ruffing and Len Barker. That’s a massive upgrade to the flailing of the past. The question is whether it will be enough.

2001 Revisited

A year ago we noted the growing optimism in Memphis, called it totally unwarranted. The Red Sox went 73-89 (worse than the prior year) and finished 5th, 17 games out.

The offense wasn’t the reason. Ramírez posted a 1.024 OPS and led the club in homers in only 452 plate appearances. Ortiz hit 280/371/676 and took first base away from Bill White. Williams turned in what will someday look like an off year and won the organizational MVP.

So that leaves the pitching as the culprit. The best case had Shane Bieber, the winter’s prize free agent, joining Stubby Overmire at the front of the rotation; Bieber made 8 starts, posted a 7.36 and blew out his elbow. Again. Jon Lester collapsed, and the rest of the SP auditions failed loudly (Eddie Cicotte, Nixey Callahan, we’re looking at you). Heath Bell finished in the mid 6s. Overmire remained the best arm Memphis had, and while he has his supporters, soft tossers are always in danger of regression. Still, a sub-5.00 ERA in the 2001 WBL remains impressive.

One prediction landed clean, but still could hurt. We asked whether Moore was the real thing and what would become of Vern Stephens if he was. Moore was real, Stephens was traded in July — and 6 months later Moore was traded too.

Key Changes

In: Xander Bogaerts (LAA); John Briggs (BRK); Don Drysdale (BRK); Red Ruffing (BRK); Tom Seaver (LAA)

Out: Mookie Betts (BRK); Billy Bryan (BRK); Bill Doak (FA); Dwight Evans (LAA); Dobie Moore (LAA)

Opening Day Rookies: Xander Bogaerts

Best Case for 2002

The new arms clear their 2001 lines. Drysdale is 22 and threw 186 innings with a 1.28 WHIP for Brooklyn; Seaver is 24 and struck out 135; Ruffing regains his prior form. I mean … this could be a solid rotation.

Behind that, the Red Sox just need health. Ramírez and Ortiz combined for about a season and a half of playing time; give them a full one each. John Briggs, bought in the spring off a 276/377/557 year in Brooklyn, is the sort of hitter scouts keep predicting will stop hitting and who keeps hitting — and if he does, the outfield rotation with Reggie Smith could prove pleasant, but complicated, especially with the somewhat surprising presence of Andrew Benintendi (343/450/572 at AA).

Skel Roach struck out 44 men in 40 innings while walking 40 of them. A little more control and they may have their closer.

Memphis doesn’t need a miracle here. It needs the pitchers it just bought to be roughly who they already are, one tick better.

Worst Case for 2002

Drysdale and Seaver both sat around league average last year — the WBL’s collective ERA was 5.38 — and around league average, while an improvement on Memphis’ history, is not what they thought they were buying.

The middle infield is … weak. Xander Bogaerts has never played a WBL game, Adam Everett is a decent glove, but nothing else. In the bullpen, Andrew Miller worked a league-leading 74 games and is the closest thing to a stopper, but that’s a heavy workload.

Skel Roach struck out 44 men in 40 innings while walking 40 of them. A little less control and they may have a walking disaster of unprecedented proportions.

Key Questions

  • Can Tom Terrific justify his cost? A 5.81 ERA in Los Angeles is forgivable in that yard and that run environment, and it is also not what a franchise shortstop is supposed to buy. How Memphis feels in October runs almost entirely through whether the 24-year-old becomes a front-line starter.
  • Who pitches the 9th? Memphis spent 2 losing seasons correctly selling relievers — Jonathan Papelbon went to Miami last August — on the sound theory that a team going nowhere shouldn’t hoard a closer. That logic has now expired. There are 3 arms the club trusts (or, in Roach’s case, tolerates) and no established one to finish games.
  • What does the outfield surplus buy? 4 of the 6 ranked prospects in this system play the outfield, on a big-league club already carrying Williams, Smith, Briggs, Ramírez and Benintendi. That’s less a logjam than a bank account. Betts was the first withdrawal; the next one is yet to be determined.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CHartnett B · Wilkins
1BOrtiz B
2BLeMahieu C · Pedroia
SSBogaerts · Everett
3BBoggs C · Shaw
LFWilliams A · Benintendi
CFSmith C
RFBriggs A
DHRamírez A
SPOvermire C · Drysdale C · Seaver F · Ruffing · Barker D
RPMiller B · Bell F · Roach C · Benitez · Fingers · de la Cruz

Nobody in that bullpen carries the closer’s tag, which was a deliberate choice for 2 losing years and is, for the first time, a problem. Also, Ted Williams keeps asking to pitch. He talked his way into 3 innings in 2000 and gave up 3 runs, which appears to have settled nothing.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerLF Ted WilliamsCF Hack Wilson
Batting EyeLF Ted WilliamsCF Roy Thomas
Contact3B Wade BoggsRF Bill Buckner
Running SpeedSS Herman LongSS Bud Harrelson
Base StealingLF Andrew BenintendiRF Tom Brown; LF Joe Kelley
IF DefenseSS Herman Long2B Jonathan Schoop
OF DefenseLF Andrew BenintendiCF Dain Clay
StuffRP Heath BellRP Justin Miller
ControlSP Jameson TaillonSP Carl Mays
VelocityRP Heath Bell; RP Andrew MillerRP Jensen Lewis

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (16)22LFJoe Kelley
2 (19)21SPJosh Beckett
3 (23)21LFCarl Yastrzemski
4 (39)24LFJoe Rudi
5 (70)221BJoe Cunningham
6 (81)21RFBill Buckner

Others: P Mickey McDermott, OF Jim Rice, P Pete Richert, OF Roy Thomas.

6 ranked prospects, 4 of them outfielders, which is either an embarrassment of riches or an accounting problem depending on the day. Joe Kelley leads at 16th in baseball, Carl Yastrzemski sits 4 spots behind him, and Joe Rudi and Bill Buckner are behind them.

The most interesting name isn’t an outfielder. Josh Beckett, 21 and ranked 19th, arrived from Miami last August as the return for Papelbon. Below the ranked list, Pete Richert took the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and 17-year-old Mickey McDermott is the youngest arm in the system.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeTim Wakefield, 37Mickey McDermott, 17
HeightDerek Lowe, 6’6″Hack Wilson, 5’6″
OPSDavid Ortiz, 1.047Jason Bartlett, .567 (AA)
HRManny Ramírez, 46Dain Clay, 1 (A)
SBRoy Thomas, 38 (A)
WAR (bat)Joe Cunningham, 4.3 (AA)Bud Harrelson, −0.9 (AA)
WStubby Overmire, 13
SVAndrew Miller, 6
ERABill Husted, 2.92 (A)Red Ruffing, 6.90
WAR (pit)Stubby Overmire, 4.2David Bush, 0.5

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Houston Colt .45’s

State of the Franchise

team logo

Houston has the coldest front office in the league: a compliment.

The Colt .45’s were surprise contenders in 2001 (85-77, a first Marvin Miller Division title, and a playoff round won before Brooklyn ended their season). This team was built without sentiment. Surplus value is currency; names don’t matter, they’ve moved out Lance Berkman, HR Johnson, and Stubby Overmire in major deals, each one built around the notion that they brought more talent in than they surrendered.

The engine underneath is young. The everyday core runs 20 to 25 — Carlos Correa at short, Jeff Bagwell at first, Jim Wynn in center, 20-year-old Pete Hill in left — with a farm system stuffed with arms. The weak point over each of the past 2 seasons has been the bullpen, which has stumbled at every opportunity despite a wealth of good-looking arms — pointing to a challenge either in evaluation or a long string of poor fortune.

And all of it is watched by the most analytics-literate crowd in the league — a fanbase that reads value correctly and whose standing grievance is that nobody outside the 713 appreciates what they’re building.

2001 Revisited

A year ago the diagnosis was the offense — too weak across the board, especially in its ability to hit for power — and the prescription was for the established bats to break out: some combination of George Brett, Craig Biggio, and Andrés Galarraga.

They didn’t — those 3 in particular. Biggio hit 234/333/398. Brett scuffled to .227 in 357 plate appearances. Galarraga hit his way to a demotion.

Houston won the division anyway, which is the whole point of this franchise. Correa erupted for 318/399/556 and settled the shortstop question to the point Houston was willing to deal Johnson. Tony Gwynn flirted with .400 before tailing off a bit after the All-Star break. Toad Ramsey knuckleballed his way to 282 strikeouts and an 8.2 WAR, arguably the best pitching season anyone had. Clemens won 17. Wynn hit 37 homers and added 38 steals with a .359 OBP and, as usual, was noticed by almost nobody.

The power never really arrived — which is an ongoing concern, and largely responsible for Gorman Thomas making the Opening Day roster (Thomas had a strong showing at the end of last season, and the team is anticipating that Bagwell and Paul Goldschmidt add to their longball numbers as well).

The one thing that went exactly as feared was the bullpen — it didn’t seem to matter who they used, they all got hammered. Sparky Lyle, the arm they sold Johnson to get, had a 3.86 ERA in New York and a 10.12 in Houston.

And yet: division title, Wild Card series win, and clear-eyed optimism for the future.

Key Changes

In: Trea Turner (CAG)
Out: Travis Jackson (CAG)

Opening Day Rookies: Vida Blue; Shanty Hogan; Roberto Osuna; Aramis Ramírez; Will Smith; Gorman Thomas; Trea Turner

Best Case for 2002

The young core steps forward instead of back. Correa’s breakout proves real, and behind Ramsey and Clemens the reclamation arms bounce the way the org keeps insisting they will — Roy Oswalt and Stephen Strasburg were both 4-WAR aces once, and Oswalt’s spring (a 0.69 ERA, the command back) confirms Houston’s faith in them.

Hill and the kids keep climbing, and more power develops throughout the lineup. And the perennial if finally lands: 1 of the electric bullpen arms converts, and Houston has an 8th and 9th inning to go with everything else.

And, with all that, the team confirms that it’s built to be good for a long time.

Worst Case for 2002

The pen stays exactly what it has been. Correa’s 2001 turns out to have been the career year rather than the launching pad. Brett’s swing stays both pretty and empty. And perhaps most concerning, Oswalt and Strasburg stay frustratingly promising, but without impact. Ramsey proves to have been a fluke, leaving the rotation bereft of much beyond Clemens.

Key Questions

  • Will the bullpen ever convert? A maddening question, because it’s not a blind spot — the org sees it perfectly. The pen is stocked with electric arms that don’t get outs: Billy Wagner‘s stuff grades near the top of the league and he posted an 8.20 ERA. The relievers who actually work are the soft-tossers, Tug McGraw and Andrew Chafin. A large share of Houston’s churn is nothing more than repeated attempts to fix this one thing.
  • Which Correa is real? The franchise committed hard after the breakout, clearing the middle infield to hand him shortstop outright, and the spring keeps agreeing (a 1.105 OPS). But a .955 season from a 23-year-old could very well be a mirage.
  • How far does trusting young arms go? Further than anywhere else in the league, for sure: Elton Chamberlain threw 108 innings of 3.56 ball with 100 strikeouts at 19. The next test case is Leon Day, 20, whom the org holds as a future front-of-rotation starter on conviction alone — his 2001 was an 8.49 ERA in a WBL look and 8.34 at Triple-A.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CSmith · Hogan
1BBagwell B · Goldschmidt
2BBiggio D · Turner
SSCorrea A
3BBrett F · Ramírez
LFHill C
CFWynn B · O’Rourke B
RFGwynn B
DHGoldschmidt · Bagwell B
SPRamsey S · Clemens B · Chamberlain · Oswalt F · Strasburg D
RPLyle D (CL) · McGraw D · Chafin A · Wagner · Osuna

What the cells won’t tell you: Jim Wynn may be the best player on the roster.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerCF Jim Wynn1B Harry Stovey
Batting Eye1B Paul Goldschmidt3B Morgan Ensberg
ContactRF Tony GwynnCF Kirby Puckett
Running Speed2B Trea TurnerCF Willy Taveras
Base StealingSP Elton Chamberlain; CF Jim O’RourkeSP Ed Morris
IF Defense3B George BrettSS Roy McMillan
OF DefenseRF Pete HillCF Willy Taveras
StuffRP Billy WagnerRP Brad Lidge
ControlRP Roberto OsunaRP Dan Quisenberry; RP Tim Crews
VelocityRP Billy WagnerRP Brad Lidge

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (2)20SPEd Morris
2 (33)22SPCarlos Rodón
3 (40)19CFCésar Cedeño
4 (53)222BYoán Moncada
5 (62)26CFKirby Puckett
6 (69)202BTommy Harper
7 (87)22SPScott Bankhead
8 (89)20SPRick Wise

Others: P Leon Day, P Bill Harper, P Lance McCullers, P Bret Saberhagen.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Trea Turner (21), Will Smith (42).

The deepest, most pitching-rich system in the league. Recent draftee Ed Morris ranks 2nd in all of baseball. Carlos Rodón — pried out of New York in the HR Johnson sale — threw 137 innings at a 2.29 ERA with 121 strikeouts, and with Scott Bankhead and Rick Wise that makes 4 ranked starters. César Cedeño, Kirby Puckett and Tommy Harper feed the outfield behind them.

A year ago this list was topped by Chamberlain, who has since graduated into the rotation, and by catcher Will Smith, who is now the everyday backstop.

Then there’s the layer nobody ranks, which is also arms: Bret Saberhagen is 21 and put up a 3.03 at AA. Lance McCullers is 21 and saved 33 games in the minors, and there is, of course, Day.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeGorman Thomas, 32Mike Hedlund, 18
HeightJohn O’Donoghue, 6’6″Ed Morris, 5’7″
OPSKen Henderson, 1.125 (AA)Jorge Polanco, .480 (A)
HRGorman Thomas, 50 (AAA)Roy McMillan, 1 (AA)
SBJim Wynn, 38
WAR (bat)Ken Henderson, 5.4 (AA)Victor Reyes, −2.2 (A)
WRoger Clemens, 17
SVLance McCullers, 33 (AA)
ERACarlos Rodón, 2.18 (A)Leon Day, 6.79 (AA)
WAR (pit)Toad Ramsey, 8.2Dock Ellis, 0.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 91.4: Off Season Review – Memphis Red Sox

73 - 89, .451 pct.
5th in Bill James Division, 17 GB

Overall

With low expectations come … well … another poor season in Memphis.

There are some decent pieces to build around here, but there is some ways to go. There is also a bit of a surplus of talent, especially in the OF, so some trade possibilities to hang in the air. Like so many WBL teams, the Red Sox struggle on the mound–I mean, they struggle everywhere, but it’s much easier to see the pieces coming together offensively than, especially, in their rotation.

Everything in Memphis revolves around Ted Williams, and how to build the franchise around the infinitely talented 22 year old.

What Went Right

Ted Williams had what felt like might qualify as an off-year by the time his career is over and done with. That still meant slashing 303/423/616, revealing a rare mixture of power and strike zone control.

Manny Ramírez improved on a rough initial year, leading the team with 46 homeruns and 110 RBIs with an OPS of 1.024. At 26, Ramírez should be entering his true prime, and while his lack of defensive skill pushes him towards a full time DH role, if he can maintain that level of performance, he’s a rare talent. The only caution is that he only saw 450ish PAs this season.

David Ortiz saw even less time, but hit even better: a 1.047 OPS and 34 homeruns in 100 games, displacing Bill White at 1B.

And while we’re on the topic of great performances in limited appearances, mention must be made of Lefty O’Doul (1.059 OPS) and Hack Wilson (1.036), each of whom have a shot at making the team out of Spring Training.

Billy Bryan was one of the best offensive backup catchers in the league, slashing 257/327/621 in support of Gabby Hartnett, who was pretty solid himself, posting an .879 OPS with good power.

And then we get pretty thin offensively: Reggie Smith and Mookie Betts were good enough, with mid .800s OPS numbers, but one or both of them need to improve, especially with the performance of the late season call ups. Betts, especially, may have value on the trade market.

On the mound, both Stubby Overmire and Len Barker racked up enough innings to generate decent WAR numbers, but were honestly not that great. That may be a little cruel on Overmire, who is clearly the best the Red Sox have to offer.

Andrew Miller was solid in a WBL leading 74 games, so there is value just in being rubber armed with a live arm, even if his walk rate is too high for comfort.

Tommy de la Cruz and Jameson Taillon were relatively effective in limited work. Taillon blew out his elbow, and won’t be back for about a year, effectively missing all of next season.

And then there is Skel Roach. 44 strikeouts in 40 innings and only 19 hits allowed … but 40 walks. So that can’t survive very long.

ALL STARS

Ted Williams
MAJOR AWARDS

Andrew Miller, AL Team of the Year
RECOGNITIONS

Andrew Miller, AL All Rookie Team; AL 25 & Under Team; AL 23 & Under Team
Dobie Moore, AL All Rookie 2nd Team; AL 21 & Under Team
David Ortiz, AL All Rookie 2nd Team
Skel Roach, AL All Rookie 2nd Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Ted Williams, MVP
Andrew Miller, Pitcher of the Year
David Ortiz, Heart & Soul
Skel Roach, Fan Favorite

Pete Richert, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Lefty O'Doul, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Dobie Moore struggled a bit in his rookie year, but at 20 he has a lot of room to improve. There’s really not a lot else that went wrong, just a range of players who were fine: Wade Boggs, Bill White, and DJ LeMahieu leap to mind.

Whereas on the mound … Jon Lester and David Bush were pretty bad as starters, especially Lester. And major free agent signing Shane Bieber made only 8 poor starts before a long-term injury. Bieber should be back early in the season.

The Red Sox keep giving Sadie McMahon, Eddie Cicotte, Nixey Callahan, and Derek Lowe opportunities. And they keep fumbling, combining for a 4-8 record and ERA’s well over 6.00.

Heath Bell stumbled badly over the season, ending with a 3-5 record and an ERA in the mid 6’s.

Transactions

March

OF Sammy Sosa for C Gabby Hartnett, P Rollie Fingers & 4th Round Pick.

A massive, massive win. Sosa struggled mightily in Memphis, went back to the House of David … and struggled mightily. On the other hand, Hartnett looks like the Red Sox catcher for the foreseeable future.

OF David Justice, IF Ozzie Albies, 2nd Round Pick to BBB for IF Bill Buckner & OF Joe Rudi.

Sure. I mean, we can’t evaluate this one for a few years.

July

The season was over for Memphis at this point, but there weren’t any real buyers, so there wasn’t much activity.

IF Vern Stephens to BRG for 4th Round Pick.

This seemed to make sense: Stephens was having a miserable season, and the Red Sox had already decided that Dobie Moore was their future SS.

August

P Jonathan Papelbon & 4th Round Pick to MCG for P Josh Beckett, OF Roy Thomas & 3rd Round Pick.

Makes sense. Papelbon was excellent, and netted a strong return from the Cuban Giants.

Positional Overview

C

Gabby Hartnett came over and seems to have seized the position, which is quite good news for Memphis. Look for Billy Bryan to back him up again, with Rick Wilkins pressing for time from below.

There are some options: Brian McCann and Jason Varitek have some talent, and Dobie Moore can even play here in a pinch.

1B

David Ortiz‘ explosion really leaves Bill White flapping in the wind, which is a shame: White has been a quality contributor, and really deserves better. Best bet is the Red Sox shop White, and Ortiz holds this down until either Bill Buckner or Joe Cunningham are ready.

There are a ton of other options as well, most notably George Scott, Travis Shaw, and even young phenom Carl Yastrzemski.

2B

It seems that DJ LeMahieu may have taken this role for his own–LeMahieu clearly outperformed Dustin Pedroia, and really his only competition is Dobie Moore, who is probably headed for shortstop.

SS

The problem with Dobie Moore is his youth and his glove. Everything else looks incredible.

If he falters, we’re likely to see Woody English or Francisco Lindor given a chance.

So, there is optimism, but you could also see this as a very large question mark.

3B

Wade Boggs was … mediocre this year, but he will still be the 3B at the end of the day.

It’s not clear what happens next here, although young Candy Jim Taylor certainly shows promise.

LF/RF

LF is Ted Williams, period.

RF is a little less settled, but is likely Mookie Betts, with occasional support from Manny Ramírez. The complications here are the youth, with Lefty O’Doul, Dwight Evans, Joe Kelley, and most importantly Carl Yastrzemski, all pushing for playing time.

CF

Reggie Smith is far better than he gets credit for. That may not be enough as Hack Wilson is breathing down his neck pushing for playing time.

DH

Manny Ramírez most of the time. But, again, there is the Lefty O’Doul issue.

SP

Stubby Overmire leads, and then … well … then it is mostly question marks, although Len Barker and Dean Chance are favored.

The scouts keep pushing Eddie Cicotte, Sadie McMahon, and Nixey Callahan, but the fans don’t appreciate their results to date. If the Red Sox decide to give youth a chance, Josh Beckett, Nathan Eovaldi, or Jim Kaat could get a look.

RP

More uncertainty.

Heath Bell, Armando Benitez, and the incomprehensible Skel Roach may get first opportunities, along with the impressive Tommy de la Cruz. Rollie Fingers may get a look in the Spring as well.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 2
5th Round: 1

Pitching, pitching, pitching. Maybe a middle infielder. Then, more pitching.

TWIWBL 87.13: The Starters

On to the starters! Same Tier system.

This is everyone who qualified for the ERA crown, plus a heaping handful of others who made at least 10 starts during the season. If a player had less than 162 innings, they are (a) probably knocked down a tier and (b) their name is prefaced by a * and italicized.

We’ve leaned on valuing IP in these rankings, perhaps a bit too much. But these are your starters, and they need to show up, game after game. It also means the Tiers are a little different: there are D-Tier pitchers here that you would welcome at the back end of your rotation, and it’s really only some of them, and the F Tier, that are truly an issue.

Our usual practices prevail: bold for top 3 and italics for bottom 3. Pitchers with below 162 IP aren’t included in the top/bottom markers.

#S Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
NLKCMA. Rube Foster2411-83.302041.02.189 BA
.219 BABIP
0.7 HR/9
3.63 FIP
NLINDLuis Padrón2223-33.222351.04220 K
.192 BA
.225 BABIP
NLHOUToad Ramsey2316-103.232230.97282 K
.182 BA
11.4 K/9
3.8 K/BB
3.40 FIP

Just look at all that bold.

It’s been these 3 all year, and there’s a hair’s breadth between them. The analytics like Toad Ramsey, but Luis Padrón‘s record is stunning and while his ERA crown came by the absolute thinnest of margins, it did come.

Knuckleballers are always a bit unpredictable season-to-season, and it may very well be that A. Rube Foster has the best career of these three. But great things are expected of each of them.

#A Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALSFSLefty Grove2716-64.402091.15230 K
2.2 BB/9
9.9 K/9
4.4 K/BB
ALMCGJosé Méndez2313-64.532331.11201 K
2.2 BB/9
NLBRKFernando Valenzuela2414-53.691631.081 Sv; 4 H
BBB/
MCG
Jim Whitney2410-73.832021.101 Sv; 2 H
NLBRKSmokey Joe Williams2412-133.932021.230.8 HR/9
3.55 FIP
NLKCMSmokey Joe Wood2215-124.111911.13

Lefty Grove and Smokey Joe Williams each have an argument to move up a tier, but are held back, Grove’s instance by his ERA, in Williams’ by his record. Still, they are the class of this group.

If José Méndez hadn’t led the league in innings, he would probably drop down a level, but we’re nitpicking: these are staff aces on most teams. Note that Miami, Brooklyn, and Kansas City already have 2 pitchers each on this list.

#B Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALLAABrett Anderson2211-64.341891.12
NLHOU* Ice Box Chamberlain194-43.561091.131 Sv; 1 H
NLHOURoger Clemens2517-103.712111.13
ALSFSBump Hadley2318-64.101891.180.9 HR/9
4.2 BB/9
NLPHIHardie Henderson2118-123.782091.234.2 BB/9
1.7 KK/B
NLBRKOrel Hershiser2719-53.691851.21
NLHOD* Kyle Peterson228-33.801071.16
ALNYYAndy Pettitte3318-94.432011.21
ALSFSEddie Plank2720-74.422101.31
ALCAGEd Walsh2510-113.942051.151 Sv
201 K
.225 BABIP

Hardie Henderson, Roger Clemens, and perhaps Eddie Plank (but that would be giving an awful lot of weight on 20 victories) could all be nudged up, but I’m comfortable with this. These are all front of rotation hurlers, with the only real surprise being Brett Anderson, who quietly excelled in a difficult year for Los Angeles. Ed Walsh, last year’s Rookie of the Year, avoided the sophomore slump entirely.

If you’re looking for skepticism, both Ice Box Chamberlain (due to age) and Kyle Peterson (due to coming out of nowhere) are decent bets to regress.

#C Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALPORWalter Ball268-74.261421.20
NLPHISteve Carlton2512-135.051871.24
NLINDJohnny Cueto2912-144.622121.14
NLHOM* Doug Drabek256-84.761471.171 H
NLBRKDon Drysdale2211-85.661861.28
ALLAADwight Gooden2211-114.361941.29
ALNYYRon Guidry2811-74.512081.24251 K
10.9 K/9
NLOTTRoy Halladay2915-95.171951.262.2 BB/9
ALPORWalter Johnson2013-124.282141.28
NLBRK* Sandy Koufax216-34.931191.162 H
ALMEMStubby Overmire2513-104.722121.266.1 K/9
NLNYGGaylord Perry2212-154.341891.12
NLKCMJosé Rijo268-125.091791.26
NLPHICharles Rogan2712-94.511881.24
ALCLEBill Steen2613-104.711931.331.9 K/BB
NLNYGDon Sutton2517-85.231741.25
NLPHIJM Ward206-105.011961.16

Gaylord Perry and JM Ward were perhaps the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year: a bit of good fortune, and either could be several tiers above. If anyone is ranked too highly, it’s probably Bill Steen. There are a lot of names here that could easily take a step forward–Steve Carlton, Don Drysdale, and Walter Johnson especially.

Sandy Koufax blossomed in the bullpen after losing his rotation spot, but Brooklyn is likely to try him again as a starter next season.

Joe Rogan is just a remarkable talent. Everyone else here has great value solely from being on the mound: add Rogan’s bat and … yoikes.

#D Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALMEMLen Barker2511-124.991801.44
ALSFS* Tommy Bridges376-75.381461.21
ALPORBert Blyleven2110-115.032041.32
NLKCMFrank Castillo2312-75.211931.32
ALSFS* Watty Clark266-44.021341.302 H
NLPHI* Ray Collins244-74.621211.271 H
ALCLE* Bob Feller2013-34.301531.34
NLBBB* Lefty Gomez279-94.901541.302 H
ALNYY/
CAG
Waite Hoyt2411-44.891691.444.1 BB/9
NLBRKFrank Knauss2312-64.551801.34
NLHOMFrancisco Liriano2310-125.031811.38
NLBBBGreg Maddux2310-145.351951.2859 HRA
.225 BABIP
6.50 FIP
ALBALDennis Martínez2412-85.122021.42
NLNYGChristy Mathewson227-165.612101.40207 K
ALPOR* Joseíto Muñoz204-44.561011.371 Sv; 2 H
ALBAL* Jim Palmer258-84.881381.371 H
NLBBBAlejandro Peña268-115.591801.31
NLHOMBilly Pierce3010-115.771731.36
NLHOD* Rick Reuschel308-84.611351.311 Sv; 1 H
NLHODBob Rush2411-95.281861.322 H
NLHODCC Sabathia285-155.892021.351 Sv; 1 H
64 HRA
3.2 HR/9
6.90 FIP
ALCAGBen Sheets276-125.881651.321 H
NLOTT* Bill Smith2610-33.771241.351 H
NLHOUStephen Strasburg259-105.871691.37
NLHODJack Taylor2612-105.901921.42.291 BA
6.4 K/9
ALCLECy Young2515-95.381991.39.307 BABIP

There are some absolute conundrums here. Greg Maddux‘s issues are obvious in the final column: his BABIP is top-3 in the league, showing just how good his stuff is. But he has to keep the ball in the ballpark. At least once in a while.

Christy Mathewson and Cy Young seem like they could do more than be massive inning eaters, but they need to be harder to hit to make the jump forward. But pitching is weird: Jack Taylor and Gerrit Cole (see below) were among the best on the mound last season, and struggled mightily this.

Bob Feller would warrant a bump as well with a few more solid starts.

#F Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALCAGMark Buehrle318-125.111851.386.3 K/9
ALMEM* David Bush269-96.581491.32
ALLAAGerrit Cole267-156.361661.432.9 HR/9
6.52 FIP
ALMCGCole Hamels2511-126.181781.4263 HRA
.293 BA
3.2 HR/9
3.7 K/BB
NLNYG* Carl Hubbell266-105.751601.291 H
NLHOM* Cliff Lee308-45.301141.323 H
NLHOURoy Oswalt287-116.531811.49.295 BA
.305 BABIP
NLOTTCharles Radbourn2712-135.892021.35
ALDETCharlie Root3111-106.151991.4259 HRA
ALLAATom Seaver237-85.811641.44
BBB/
CAG
* Sam Streeter253-115.631231.34
ALPORDizzy Trout295-125.931621.504.1 BB/9
1.8 K/BB
ALDETJustin Verlander255-126.481691.52.310 BABIP
NLIND* Doc White275-126.551431.341 Sv; 3 H

Most of these issues are clear: too many homeruns, too many walks, way too many runners on the basepaths. Maybe Old Hoss Radbourn could argue to be one tier up. Maybe.

Other than that, it must be said there is a ton of talent here: Roy Oswalt, Tom Seaver, and Justin Verlander jump out as most likely to bounce back next year.

It must be said there are probably 2 dozen more names that could be listed in the F Tier. Check out the individual team maps as they are published for those, but suffice to say that, when a pitcher goes down in flames in the WBL, they burn awfully bright.

TWIWBL 83.3: The Final Week!

Some notes as we move through the final week of the season.

#Monday

Miami moved in front of Detroit by a half game in the AL Wild Card race behind a great start from Phenomenal Smith, whose return may be a difference maker for the Cuban Giants. Smith gave up 1 run in 7 innings, moving to 4-0. Hal Newhouser was good for Detroit, but an early homer from Gary Sheffield and a late one from Joe Adcock sealed the game for Miami.


Miami Cuban Giants
77-79
Detroit Wolverines77-800.5
AL Wild Card

Cleveland was supposed to have an easy time of it, hosting the lowly Memphis Red Sox. But the Spiders’ bullpen collapsed, and they dropped a 9-8 decision to the visitors, who were powered by homers from Lefty O’Doul, Hack Wilson, and David Ortiz.

New York Black Yankees89-67
Cleveland Spiders87-692
Bill James Division

In a series that means more for Indianapolis than Philadelphia, the ABC’s opened with a decisive win, 15-8 over the Stars. Johnny Bench hit 2 out, and the game wasn’t as close as the score (Philadelphia tallied 5 in the 9th to make it more respectable).


Houston Colt 45s
81-75
Indianapolis ABC’s78-793.5
Kansas City Monarchs77-804.5
Marvin Miller Division
Indianapolis ABC’s78-79
Kansas City Monarchs77-801
Wandering House of David76-812
NL Wild Card

#Tuesday

Detroit pulled back into a dead heat with Miami, pounding out 6 homeruns (2 from JD Martinez) in an 11-5 win. Ernie Lombardi, Tony Lazzeri, Oscar Gamble, and Ty Cobb also went deep for the Wolverines in an easy win for the visitors.


Detroit Wolverines
78-80
Miami Cuban Giants77-800.5
AL Wild Card

Memphis did it again, beating Cleveland 4-2, and dropping the Spiders 2.5 games behind the Black Yankees. Homers from Reggie Smith and Wade Boggs backed a strong showing from Stubby Overmire, who moved to 13-9 on the year. The Spiders, however, remained only 2 games behind the Black Yankees as New York fell to San Francisco, 9-0, as Bump Hadley improved to 18-6 with a masterful 1-hitter.

New York Black Yankees89-68
Cleveland Spiders87-702
Bill James Division

Philadelphia stormed back from a 7-1 deficit, beating the ABC’s 8-7 on a pinch-hit walkoff shot from Aaron Judge–his 60th of the year–in a game that saw 2 grandslams, one from Indianapolis’ Ed Swartwood, the other from the Stars’ Charles Rogan. This was good news for Houston, who dropped a 9-8 decision to the New York Gothams, who were powered by 2 homeruns from Willie Mays. Houston remains 3.5 games ahead in the Marvin Miller Division.

Riding an excellent start from Rick Reuschel, the House of David pulled into a tie with Kansas City by defeating the Monarchs 3-1. Reuschel was supported by Ryne Sandberg‘s 40th homer of the year, and the win leaves both teams 1 game behind Indianapolis in the Wild Card race.


Houston Colt 45s
81-75
Indianapolis ABC’s78-793.5
Kansas City Monarchs77-804.5
Marvin Miller Division
Indianapolis ABC’s78-80
Kansas City Monarchs77-811
Wandering House of David77-811
NL Wild Card

#Wednesday

What you see depends on where you stand: Miami fans will be miserable at their bullpen’s performance, as the Cuban Giants’ relievers surrendered 11 runs over the final 4 innings n an 11-8 loss to Detroit. Wolverines fans, of course, will be applauding the clutch performance of their team, led by Juan Beníquez‘ 4 hits and 3 RBI’s from Charlie Gehringer and Bob Bailey. The win moves Detroit 1.5 games up in the Wild Card chase.

Detroit Wolverines79-80
Miami Cuban Giants77-811.5
AL Wild Card

The Spiders are struggling, but they refuse to give up: a Larry Doby homerun and walkoff RBI single from John Ellis gave Cleveland a 9-8 win over Memphis, keeping them at least within touch of the Black Yankees for the Bill James Division crown. Willie McCovey hit his 15th homerun in 35 games, and Paul O’Neill (the first of his WBL career) and Ron Blomberg also went deep.

The Black Yankees fell to San Francisco, as Eddie Plank earned his 20th win of the season with 6 strong innings for the Sea Lions. San Francisco’s bullpen–Ken Howell, Joe Nathan, and closer Rod Beck–fanned 7 of the 9 batters they retired, with Beck earning his 40th save of the season.

New York Black Yankees89-69
Cleveland Spiders88-701
Bill James Division

Houston bounced back in a big way, using a phenomenal start from Ice Box Chamberlain and 7 homeruns to beat the Gothams, 9-2. Chamberlain allowed 1 hit in just under 8 innings, fanning 12 and 2 of the important cogs in the Colt 45’s late season surge–OF Gorman Thomas and C Will Smith–carried the team, twice launching back-to-back homeruns. Jim Wynn led off the game with a dinger, and Paul Goldschmidt and Jim O’Rourke also went deep.

The victory sealed the pennant for Houston, setting off raucous celebrations in the home dugout. It also meant all of the attention in the NL is now focused on the final Wild Card Spot, currently owned by Indianapolis, but with Kansas City and the House of David hot on their heels (and Homestead still hanging around with at least a mathematical chance).

After fighting back from a 6-1 deficit, Indianapolis suffered a gut-wrenching loss, falling to Philadelphia, 12-8. The Stars were led by homeruns from Sherm Lollar, Harmon Killebrew, Jung Ho Kang, and Sherry Magee.

Ryne Sandberg had 4 hits including a go-ahead solo homer in the bottom of the 8th as the House of David topped Kansas City, 6-5. Jack Taylor continued a late-season rebound with a solid start, but both bullpens struggled in this one. The victory moves the House of David into a dead heat with Indianapolis in the Wild Card chase, with Kansas City 1 game back.

Indianapolis ABC’s78-81
Wandering House of David78-81
Kansas City Monarchs77-821
Homestead Grays76-832
NL Wild Card

#Thursday

Miami just refuses to lose: Cleveland had taken the lead, 5-4 in the 6th inning, but the Cuban Giants scored 8 runs in their final 2 frames in a 12-6 victory. Miami pounded out 17 hits, led by 3 each from Jim Thome and Martín Dihigo. The game was never sure: Cuban Giants pitchers gave up 8 walks, so the Spiders had constant traffic on the basepaths. But they did just enough, with homeruns from Julio Rodríguez, Dihigo, Alejandro Oms, and Thome.

With the result, the Spiders drop to 1.5 games behind the Black Yankees and the Cuban Giants move to 1 game behind Detroit in the Wild Card race.

Detroit Wolverines79-80
Miami Cuban Giants78-811
AL Wild Card

Speaking of the Black Yankees … their bullpen continues to be their Achilles’ heel, with 4 relievers giving up 9 runs in 2.1 innings. Ouch. The big blows were homeruns from Jimmie Foxx and Bobby Bonds as San Francisco defeated New York, 13-10.

New York Black Yankees89-70
Cleveland Spiders88-711
Bill James Division

#Friday

The Black Yankees continue not to grab the Bill James Division by the throat, falling to lowly Baltimore 5-4 in the opening game of the final series of the season. Homers from Eddie Murray, Manny Machado, and a final go-ahead blast from Earl Averill gave the Black Sox the edge in another game that saw less than stellar performances from New York’s bullpen.

Two homers from Gary Sheffield carried Miami to a 5-4 win over Cleveland, preserving New York’s 1 game advantage, and keeping the pressure on Detroit. The Cuban Giants got another strong outing from Jim Whitney, and were able to fade a 9th inning comeback from the Spiders for the victory.

So what will Detroit do with their opportunity?

Play a game for the ages where they held leads of 3-1, 4-2, 9-5, and 10-6. And it was never enough as, after closer Mike Henneman was forced from the game with a back injury, Troy Percival came in and gave up a grand slam to Manny Ramírez and a walkoff shot to Gabby Hartnett. Both Ramírez and Hartnett had 2 homers in the game, while Al Kaline had 2 for Detroit. Kaline had 3 hits and 7 RBIs while Hartnett had 4 hits for Memphis. A true thriller of a game that leaves everything pretty much undecided.

New York Black Yankees89-71
Cleveland Spiders88-721
Bill James Division
Detroit Wolverines79-81
Miami Cuban Giants79-81
AL Wild Card

The House of David fell to Houston 8-2, as all eyes turned to the 4 game series between Indianapolis and Kansas City.

Kansas City’s Smokey Joe Wood and the ABC’s’ Luis Padrón squared off in the series opener and while each pitched well, neither were involved in the decision. Instead, after a 2 run shot from Ducky Medwick tied the game, Kansas City won it on a sacrifice fly from Dale Murphy in the bottom of the 9th. So Padrón fails in his attempt to win his 24th game of the year and, more importantly, Kansas City forces a 3 way dead heat for the final Wild Card spot.

Indianapolis ABC’s78-82
Wandering House of David78-82
Kansas City Monarchs77-82
Homestead Grays76-842
NL Wild Card

#Saturday

Memphis keeps embracing their role as spoiler while relying on a handful of late season call ups. In this case, Bucky Walters gave a good starting performance, Lefty O’Doul had 3 hits, and Wayne Causey drove in 2 with an 8th inning single for a 5-3 victory over Detroit.

It sure looks like Miami has found a key part of their rotation: Phenomenal Smith improved to 5-0, combining with Ricky Nolasco on a 3 hit shutout of Cleveland. Smith struck out 10 before yielding to Nolasco, for the last 2 outs. Martín Dihigo drove in 2 runs, continuing his second half surge.

Miami moves a full game ahead of Detroit for the Wild Card slot, and Cleveland falls 1.5 games behind the Black Yankees for the Bill James Division title, with New York’s magic number reduce to 1.

And then it was none. New York topped Baltimore 11-7 behind homers from Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, and Roger Maris, giving the Black Yankees their first Bill James Division title.

Miami Cuban Giants80-81
Detroit Wolverines79-821
AL Wild Card

Oh boy … Indianapolis has nobody to blame but themselves.

Behind a great start from Johnny Cueto and 3 RBI’s from Oscar Charleston, the ABC’s took a 6-2 lead into the bottom of the 9th, with their closer, Rob Dibble, on the mound. Dibble got one out, and then 16 of his next 20 pitches missed the strike zone, resulting in 4 consecutive walks, scoring a run. Rob Murphy relieved Dibble, and an RBI groundout and 2 wild pitches later, the game was tied at 6.

Cool Papa Bell walked in the bottom of the 10th, stole second, and scored on a hit from Ozzie Smith, moving Kansas City a game ahead in the Wild Card race.

#Sunday

The final day of the season leaves both final Wild Card spots up for grabs: in the AL, Miami has a 1 game lead over Detroit and in the NL, Kansas City has the edge over both Indianapolis and the House of David.

Miami was unable to clinch it: Larry Doby became the 2nd player in WBL history (and the first in the AL) to hit 4 homeruns in a game, driving in 7 as Cleveland topped the Cuban Giants, 13-7. That leaves Miami’s fate in the hands of Detroit later in the day.

Detroit used a mix of the old reliable–2 homeruns from Al Kaline and 1 from Ty Cobb–and the newly acquired (a strong start from Connie Johnson and key innings from Steve Howe and Troy Percival) to beat Memphis, 8-4.

And so, we finish in a dead heat.

Miami Cuban Giants80-82
Detroit Wolverines80-82
AL Wild Card

Eppa Rixey combined with 4 relievers (including an important 1.2 innings from Doc Mitchell), leading the ABC’s to a 7-3 win over Kansas City, meaning Indianapolis and the Monarchs finish with identical 79-83 records. The only question is if the House of David will join them in a 3-way tie for the final playoff spot.

Nope.

The House of David tried valiantly, and even outhit Houston, 10-8, but they fell to the Colt 45’s, 10-9 in a game that saw Tony Gwynn rap out 3 hits, reaching 200 on the season. Richie Hebner, Ryne Sandberg, and Anthony Rizzo each had 2 hits, but they didn’t get enough support as the House of David season ends, falling just short of the postseason.

#Monday

So, two playoff games, winner makes the postseason.

#AL

First up, we have Miami visiting Detroit.

The Cuban Giants will turn to Hugh McQuillan who, despite being roughed up in his last start, has been solid for Miami. If he struggles early, look for Jim Whitney to try to give the team some innings on short rest. For Detroit, Pete Conway will take the mound, also on a pretty short leash.

Ty Cobb may be almost universally disliked, but his baseball talent cannot be denied: he launched a 3 run homer in the top of the first and a grand slam in the 2nd, helping Detroit to a 9-0 lead after 2 innings.

Conway, meanwhile, had allowed a single run on 3 hits through 5, and left after 6 with the score 13-2.

Miami scored 3 in the 9th, but fell well short, 14-5. In the end, a just result, as Detroit really feels like the better team. Still, the Cuban Giants went from being the worst team in the league to being this close to the playoffs: a good year for them.

Cobb finished with 2 homers and 7 RBIs, and Al Kaline, Charlie Gehringer, Ernie Lombardi, and Hank Greenberg each also went deep. There was some bad news on Greenberg, who will be out of action for a few days with a leg injury.

#NL

Indianapolis would turn to Doc White while Kansas City gave the start to young Matt Morris.

Kansas City took an early lead on Albert Pujols‘ second homerun of the game, pulling ahead 6-3 after 3 innings, with the ABC’s runs coming on longballs from George Foster and Chris Sabo.

Morris was OK–not great, but not bad–until Tommy Helms singled and scored on a double from Barry Larkin in the top of the 4th. A Bob Bescher walk put runners on the corner, and fetched Frank Castillo from the bullpen. The move backfired as Sabo and Oscar Charleston singled and, after a couple of outs, Johnny Bench brought home 2 with a single of his own, giving Indianapolis an 8-7 lead. Foster followed with his 2nd dinger of the game, extending the lead to 10-7 and chasing Castillo. His successor, Bob Shawkey, gave upa solo shot to Helms and when all of the dust settled, the ABC’s had scored 8 and were up 11-7.

The ABC’s coasted from there, riding additional homeruns by Ed Charles and Sabo to a 15-8 win, powering Indianapolis into the postseason. Sabo drove in 5 and Foster 4, with each of them notching 3 hits on the day.

Kansas City had ridden its pitching staff all year; here their arms betrayed them, surrendering 14 hits and 15 runs.

TWIWBL 82.2 Spotlight on the Memphis Red Sox

There is a ton of offensive talent here, but it falls off drastically, and suffers from a lot of positional overlap. Add in downright poor pitching, and you have the worst team in the Bill James Division.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

It’s not clear where Memphis goes, but it certainly looks like trading some of their positional depth for some pitching should be on the table.

THE OFFENSE

It’s a top heavy team, with some true standout talent.

#What’s Going Right

Ted Williams is an elite talent, and while his 298/412/619 slash line doesn’t move him into the absolute top tier, at 22 there is quite some room for improvement.

Manny Ramírez has stepped up dramatically from last year, leading the team with 42 HRs and 2nd behind Williams in RBI. Ramírez’ OPS has hovered around 1.000 all season, powered by a SLG in the mid .600’s.

David Ortiz has essentially displaced Bill White at 1B, slashing 286/370/680 in just over 300 PAs.

Gabby Hartnett is an excellent offensive C, posting an OPS in the mid 800’s with 37 HRs and his backup, Billy Bryan, has been even better offensively, with 14 HRs in 140 PA’s.

For a 20 year old, Dobie Moore‘s debut has to be considered a success, slashing 291/352/427 while playing across the IF.

#What’s Not Going Right

OF Mookie Betts and 3B Wade Boggs have been fine, but the Red Sox need more if they are going to compete.

Nobody getting a ton of playing time has really been awful offensively, although only Iván De Jesús‘ defensive flexibility has kept him in the league.

The positional distribution remains unsolved: Ortiz, White, and Travis Shaw all seem to be reasonable WBL alternatives at 1B, and the leading young talent (Hack Wilson and Lefty O’Doul) play the same positions as Reggie Smith, Betts, Ramírez, and Williams.

THE PITCHING

When your best pitcher is a middling middle reliever (Tommy de la Cruz, whose 6.20 ERA belies some very good supporting numbers), you’re in trouble.

#What’s Going Right

That is a little unfair to Stubby Overmire, who leads the team with 11 wins and looks like an excellent #2 or #3 rotation starter being asked to be a #1.

Andrew Miller‘s been solid out of the bullpen with a 7-8 record, 3 saves, and 11 holds while leading the WBL in appearances.

#What’s Not Going Right

Everything else.

David Bush, Len Barker, and Jon Lester have all failed to impress, with Bush (8-8, 6.82) being the best of a bad lot.

Some of the other hurlers given opportunities, especially Eddie Cicotte and Nixey Callahan, have been unbelievably bad.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

There is some help, as Memphis has a middle-of-the-road farm system, with some strong talent that is blocked at the WBL level (all the more trade fodder for some pitching).

OFs Dwight Evans, Hack Wilson, Willie Crawford, Roy Thomas, Lefty O’Doul, and Carl Yastrzemski all look to have high ceilings. On the IF, it’s a bit more sparse, with Candy Jim Taylor and Joe Cunningham leading the way.

There is also some potential on the mound. Sadie McMahon remains well regarded despite his struggles, and he, Jim Kaat, Josh Beckett, and Nathan Eovaldi should all be given some long looks in the Spring.

WHAT’S NEEDED

A re-distribution of the talent, using some of the excess to bring some arms to town.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

  • Who is going to fill out the rotation and the bullpen? Remains totally unanswered.
  • Memphis’ scouts are agog over Dobie Moore, but scouts don’t play the game: is Moore the real thing and, if so, what happens to Vern Stephens? Moore looks to be the real thing, and Stephens was pretty bad, eventually moving on to Brooklyn (where, it must be said, he has flourished) for a 4th round pick.
  • Sosa was moved out, essentially for Gabby Hartnett, putting more pressure on the OF the step up. Hartnett is doing well, and the last thing the Red Sox need is more OF talent.

FEATURED SERIES

Since the Cuban Giants still have an outside shot at the playoffs, we’ll use the opportunity to focus on the Red Sox’s visit to Miami for a 4 game set at the start of the week.

Projected Starters

Memphis starter listed first, although I would expect at least a few of these to change.

David Bush (8-8, 6.82) @ Cole Hamels (11-10, 5.88)
Stubby Overmire (11-9, 4.81) @ Jim Whitney (8-6, 3.90)
Len Barker (10-12, 5.07) @ Phenomenal Smith (2-0, 1.93)
TBA @ Hugh McQuillan (4-3, 4.82)

Just because it will make the end of the year far more interesting, let’s go with a 3-1 series win for Miami.

Game One

The Red Sox used 2 homeruns from Dustin Pedroia and just enough from their bullpen to take game 1, 8-6.

Memphis took the lead on a 2 run homer from Gabby Hartnett, but 2 wild pitches from David Bush (one in the 2nd, one in the 3rd) tied the game at 2.

Pedroia’s first homer, in the top of the 5th, put Memphis back on top. The Red Sox hit 3 out of the park in the 7th, getting homers from David Ortiz, Pedroia again, and Manny Ramírez. That gave the Red Sox an 8-2 lead, which should have been enough …

Except, Sadie McMahon, in relief of Bush, imploded, giving up 4 runs before being relieved by Andrew Miller. Miller, however, was effective, earning his 12th hold of the year, and Tommy de la Cruz closed the door for his 5th save as Memphis played spoiler to Miami’s Wild Card chase.

MEM 8 (Taylor 11-10) @ MCG 6 (Mathewson 7-15)
HRs: MEM – Hartnett (38), Pedroia 2 (4), Ortiz (32), Ramírez (43); MCG – Oliver (8).
Box Score

Game Two

Dean Chance got the start for Memphis in game 2 and was actually quite good. Unfortunately for Memphis, Miami’s Jim Whitney was better, allowing 3 hits and 1 run over 7 innings–a solo shot from Ted Williams in the top of the 1st–as the Cuban Giants edged the Red Sox, 6-1.

Miami got longballs from Julio Rodríguez, Jim Thome, and Joe Adcock in the victory.

MEM 1 (Chance 0-1) @ MCG 6 (Whitney 4-4, George 1 H)
HRs: MEM- Williams (40); MCG – J. Rodríguez (37), Thome (54), Adcock (2).
Box Score

Game Three

Bucky Walters would get the start for Memphis, with Miami countering with Phenomenal Smith, whose return from injury has come at just the right time for the Cuban Giants.

Memphis jumped on Smith in the top of the 1st with Bill White–whose playing time has declined regularly over the season–hitting a 3 run homerun. Miami tied the game in the 3rd with a 3 run homerun from Julio Rodríguez.

The Red Sox took the lead on a sacrifice fly from Wade Boggs in the top of the 5th, but 4 consecutive hits–doubles from Alejandro Oms, Rodríguez and Yasiel Puig wrapped around a single from José Canseco–chased Walters and gave the Cuban Giants a 6-4 advantage.

The Red Sox would score again, but not enough as Miami edged it, 7-6. Rodríguez continued his hot streak with 3 hits and 4 RBI’s, and the revamped Miami bullpen closed it out, this time with Ricky Nolasco getting the hold and Jonathan Papelbon his 8th save since coming over to the Cuban Giants.

MEM 6 (Walters 0-3) @ MCG 7 (Smith 3-0, Papelbon 8 Sv, Looper 10 H, Nolasco 3 H)
HRs: MEM – White (23); MCG – Rodríguez (38).
Box Score

Game 4

So this one matters as a series win would impact the post-season picture. Memphis would trot out their best starter, last year’s ERA champ, Stubby Overmire while Miami would counter with the impressive, but essentially untried, Hugh McQuillan.

Or, the once impressive, as the Red Sox jumped on him for 6 runs in 5 innings, and then pounded his relief, Don Wilson, for 4 more in an 11-3 rout.

The offensive onslaught was led by Ted Williams‘s 3 hits, but almost everyone got involved, with Williams, Lefty O’Doul, Wade Boggs, Mookie Betts, and Travis Shaw each going deep. Pair that with Overmire’s solid 7 innings, giving up 4 hits and 3 runs and–most surprisingly for Red Sox fans–2 scoreless innings in relief from Nixey Callahan–and you have an easy victory for Memphis and a vital defeat for Miami.

MEM 11 (Overmire 12-9) – MCG 3 (McQuillan 4-4)
HRs: MEM – Williams (41), O’Doul (2), Boggs (10), Betts (25), Shaw (18); MCG: Canseco (65).
Box Score

The series split is a solid result for Memphis as it continues to give some of its young players time; a far more disappointing result for Miami, who look to fall just short of the postseason.

TWIWBL 80.3: A Preliminary Look at the Gold Gloves

{Every year towards the end of the season, I do some legwork so when the awards roll around, it’s not as burdensome. This week, the fielders, next week, the rookies.}

We’re going to do this position by position, mixing the leagues, with the candidates listed alphabetically. 600 IP minimum, unless otherwise noted.

Last year, only 1 set of awards were given; this year, with the creation of the NL, there will be 2 at each position.

Some of the positions have their own things, but a note about some of the standard fielding statistics. Range Factor measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

#C

NameTmLgIPAEPBZRRTO%cERAFRM
Johnny BenchINDNL9671124103.540%5.267.6
Curt BlefaryBALAL937103242.038%5.681.6
Gary CarterOTTNL900114594.342%6.154.9
Josh GibsonHOMNL97310236-1.530%5.987.7
Elrod HendricksHODNL825104474.641%5.473.9
Joe MauerPORAL974129562.737%5.364.9
Thurman MunsonNYYAL95791623.036%5.293.0
Mike PiazzaBRKNL96688212-2.831%4.624.5
Buster PoseyNYGNL933100492.639%5.438.0
Iván RodríguezMCGAL9171162145.347%5.611.8
Ted SimmonsKCMNL907108552.437%4.31-2.3
IP = Innings Played; A = Assists; E = Errors; PB = Passed Balls; ZR = Zone Rating; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; cERA = Catcher’s ERA; FRM = Framing Runs Saved

Catcher’s stats are just all over the place.

It’s hard to take cERA and FRM all that seriously when they fall so far outside the bounds of the rest of the information at our disposal–although, to be fair, cERA is clearly tied to the quality of the staff and, as such, perhaps is best viewed as a net difference from the overall team ERA. Perhaps I’ll look at that for the actual awards.

Regardless, it feels like, if you look at a catcher’s primary job of making plays and keeping the opposition running game under control, Carter in the NL and Pudge in the AL are the frontrunners. The argument against each, if there is one, would have to focus on their league-leading (in the wrong way) PB numbers.

But this one doesn’t really feel close at this point.

Last year’s winner, Cleveland’s Louis Santop, has struggled so much offensively this year that his playing time has really dropped him out of contention, although his defensive performance remains top-notch.

#1B

NameTmLgIPTCADPERNGZREff
Mike EpsteinHOMNL957952568048.933.01.016
Hank GreenbergDETAL973891587448.202.71.022
Kent HrbekPORAL884846457958.571.81.028
Don MattinglyNYYAL710642405458.071.81.031
Dan McGannBALAL879887666969.02-1.9.978
Boog PowellKCMNL978998568049.153.01.016
Joey VottoINDNL942863627608.254.51.040
Bill WhiteMEMAL793812356669.150.41.007
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

The 2 best defensive 1Bs in the league–Kansas City’s Boog Powell and Indianapolis’ Joey Votto–are both in the NL. So the competition there is clear, as is, ultimately, the current frontrunner in Powell. Votto’s edge in the digital measures–ZR and Efficiency–may make this a more challenging choice at the end of the year.

In the AL, it’s far more confusing, but it feels like the discussion is between Detroit’s Hank Greenberg and the Black Yankees’ Don Mattingly. Mattingly hasn’t played a ton, so perhaps Greenberg edges him? Portland’s Kent Hrbek could probably edge into the discussion as well.

Will Clark of the New York Gothams, who won it last year, has been fine, but falls just short of contention.

#2B

Five 2B had only 3 errors, but 2 of them–Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson and Boston’s DJ LeMahieu–have under 700 innings at the position. LeMahieu is the leader in Defensive Efficiency, so he made the list, but Robinson did not.

NameTmLgIPTCDPERNGZREff
Roberto AlomarOTTNL103551162104.36-3.1.978
Robinson CanóKCMNL9945247654.709.71.060
Eddie CollinsCAGAL99552877114.67-7.6.943
Miller HugginsBALAL7963835054.279.11.097
Chuck KnoblauchCLEAL9514436434.16-9.6.926
Nap LajoieHOMNL8764856644.947.31.049
DJ LeMahieuMEMAL6443455334.787.71.110
Cookie RojasMCGAL7383636234.39-3.6.965
Ryne SandbergHODNL8634896035.075.41.035
Chase UtleyPHINL9885386124.8813.81.081
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

Ryne Sandberg and Napoleon Lajoie have had fine years at 2B, but Philadelphia’s Chase Utley has been fairly spectacular, leading the world in Zone Rating with excellent numbers across the board.

The AL is more confusing, as the best fielders–Miller Huggins and DJ LeMahieu–have yet to hit 800 innings in the field. But there really aren’t a lot of other contenders: Eddie Collins, who won it last year, has amassed a ton of time at 2B, and hence is among the leaders in the counting stats, but his other numbers are surprisingly bad.

#SS

NameTmLgIPTCDPERNGZREff
Jim FregosiPOR/PHIAL/NL10774976084.09-10.6.940
Derek JeterNYYAL106150467164.14-19.0.911
Barry LarkinINDNL7053804994.748.31.085
Dick LundySFSAL8384114664.358.21.057
Freddy ParentCAGAL88850856115.0413.21.058
Ozzie SmithKCMNL10195436754.7511.01.068
Arky VaughanCLEAL9404445384.1710.41.085
Robin YountMCGAL9524735964.418.31.052
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

It feels like the choices here are pretty clear: Ozzie Smith in the NL and Freddy Parent in the AL. Smith should be uncontroversial, but Parent is subject to some discussion, as he is getting less and less playing time for the American Giants. If it’s not Parent, it is probably Arky Vaughan or Robin Yount, with the question being whether Yount’s surer hands outweigh Vaughan’s greater range.

George Davis, who won it last year, logged just under 50 games with Detroit before being sent to AAA and suffering a significant injury.

#3B

NameTmLgIPTCDPERNGZREff
Dick AllenCAGAL104626024152.110.51.010
Buddy BellPORAL10452962382.487.91.054
Adrián BeltréOTTNL936272672.550.31.007
Ron CeyBRKNL9562782472.554.71.035
Manny MachadoBALAL85725914102.610.91.013
Eddie MathewsBBBNL10142912982.51-2.6.986
Doug RaderLAAAL104728726132.350.91.021
Scott RolenPHINL9732651672.394.01.050
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

Portland’s Buddy Bell has probably been the best 3B in the WBL this season, so he should take the award in the AL. In the NL, it currently comes down to Scott Rolen and Ron Cey, whose numbers are pretty indistinguishable at this point, perhaps with a slight edge to Cey.

#LF

For the OF, DP is replaced by Outfield Kills, and we introduce ARM, a measurement of how many runs have resulted from runners taking extra bases on balls hit to the that fielder. Note that positive ARM ratings are relatively rare: runners do tag up.

NameTmLgIPTCKERNGZREffARM
Johnny BatesCLEAL1006205422.097.01.053-1.0
Bob BescherINDNL681149121.94-4.3.950-2.1
Don BufordLAA/NYGAL/NL705127011.61-2.8.957-0.6
Rickey HendersonSFSAL1040199341.6910.01.104-2.8
Sherry MageePHINL658127101.743.71.046-1.9
Bob NiemanBBBNL720145421.79-1.0.961-1.6
Frank RobinsonBALAL897184421.830.3.998-1.8
Babe RuthNYYAL627128121.815.71.084-1.3
Roy WhiteBRKNL1006213521.899.31.075-1.2
Jim WynnHOUNL755140021.64-4.4.9553.3
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

It feels like Roy White has a shot at being the first repeat winner as he has once again proven incredibly dependable in LF for Brooklyn, while adding more Kills and excellent supporting numbers.

In the AL, It feels like it’s the range of Rickey Henderson against the overall dependability of Johnny Bates–who actually makes more plays the Rickey, but some of that is down to staff effects.

Have to call out the nutty ARM rating for Jim Wynn, which is as flukish as fluke can be.

#CF

NameTmLgIPTCKERNGZREffARM
Paul BlairBALAL838251322.7310.41.084-2.3
Chili DavisDETAL9792831382.53-12.5.9281.5
Willie DavisPHINL898287432.8515.21.109-2.0
Curtis GrandersonBBBNL974317152.884.81.030-4.6
Pete HillHOUNL800222222.470.7.997-2.8
Willie MaysNYGNL1065327342.7311.31.046-4.2
Willie McGeeKCMNL8452611072.71-5.9.963-1.4
Mike TroutLAAAL940282212.69-0.21.006-3.3
Vernon WellsCAGAL624209232.97-5.2.968-2.6
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

Not a lot to pick from in the AL, which increases Paul Blair‘s chance at a repeat selection. It probably comes down to Blair’s overall excellence against the spectacular highlight reel nature of Chili Davis‘ year: Davis hasn’t made all the plays, but has thrown out 13 runners. Mike Trout is in the conversation, but Blair edges him across the board, and is the likely frontrunner.

In the NL, things are much deeper, and we run into the question of how to weigh playing time. Willie Mays has similar numbers to Willie Davis, but over 200 more innings in the field, which I think is enough to give him the edge. Some mention should be made of the steady Curtis Granderson and the surprising 10 kills from Kansas City’s Willie McGee.

#RF

NameTmLgIPTCKERNGZREffARM
Beals BeckerBRKNL1022233732.033.01.0070.7
Mookie BettsMEMAL775166101.936.81.076-3.7
Roberto ClementeHOMNL973243862.195.61.050-3.1
Larry DobyCLEAL768186172.105.01.064-4.2
Stan MusialKCMNL801157241.727.01.0720.8
Ichiro SuzukiLAAAL1035227501.975.41.036-2.4
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

This is very close in both leagues.

In the NL, you could make an argument for all 3 of the contenders: Brooklyn’s Beals Becker has been steady across the board; Stan Musial covers a huge amount of ground for Kansas City and has a higher ARM than Becker; and Roberto Clemente makes the most plays and has the most Kills. I think it’s Clemente or Musial, with Musial slightly in front, maybe?

Over in the AL, it’s between Mookie Betts and Ichiro Suzuki, neither of whom have made an error in RF this season. Betts has been slightly better with the glove, Suzuki slightly better with the arm. Perhaps Suzuki, partially because he has played more innings in RF than anyone.

Last year’s winner, Johnny Callison, has done well this season, but is just out of the conversation. Mention should be made of Ottawa’s Larry Walker as well: Walker doesn’t cover a ton of ground, but has only made a single error in RF this season.

#P

125 IP minimum.

A few additional stat for hurlers, including the number of steal attempts and the % thrown out as well as the number of runs gained through their catcher’s ability to frame strikes. Obviously, both of these are highly dependent on the quality of backstop, but they also do impact the evaluation of the pitcher.

We’ve also taking out E and DP as stats, as odd as that may seem, as there is just not enough variance to really make much of them.

NameTmLgIPTCRNGZREffSBARTO%FRM
Roger ClemensHOUNL183130.64-3.01.6596125-0.4
Gerrit ColeLAAAL155211.220.51.43844320.4
Pud GalvinLAAAL130241.661.31.1493139-0.7
Bump HadleySFSAL164301.65-0.3.99662340.5
Walter JohnsonPORAL189190.914.81.21728610.3
José MéndezMCGAL200200.904.41.0864356-0.7
Stubby OvermireMEMAL175211.082.2.8531663-0.0
Gaylord PerryNYGNL185311.51-0.3.99635290.7
Toad RamseyHOUNL196180.781.0.9134241-0.5
Bob RushHODNL156261.443.3.99619630.0
Jack TaylorHODNL163191.055.6.99641630.0
Doc WhiteINDNL13080.551.8.99618501.9
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency; SBA = Stolen Bases Attempted; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; FRM = Framing Runs

Who knows? Small sample sizes are rough, although it is nice to see last year’s winner, Jack Taylor, make a return appearance.

Taylor makes a lot of plays, and is very hard to run on, both of which count for quite a bit. I think an argument could be made for Pud Galvin, as well as for Taylor’s teammate, Bob Rush, but I would expect a fair bit of this to change over the final month of the season.

TWIWBL 77.4: Bill James Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Cleveland Spiders67-48.583
New York Black Yankees65-54.5464
Detroit Wolverines57-60.48711
Memphis Red Sox55-63.46613.5
Baltimore Black Sox50-67.42718
Bill James Division | 12 August

#Baltimore Black Sox

Two homeruns from Frank Robinson weren’t enough as the Black Sox fell to Los Angeles, 5-2. There was a positive: Ned Garvin pitched very much like the Ned Garvin of last year despite taking the loss.

After a few trades, the Black Sox welcomed Gene Conley and recalled Bill Byrd to their bullpen, and recalled Larry Gardner to backup Miller Huggins at 2B.

#Cleveland Spiders

Ed Bailey went deep twice, giving him a dozen with Cleveland and 32 on the season, as the Spiders topped Portland, 13-4.

#Detroit Wolverines

Superstar Ty Cobb hit for the cycle, but it wasn’t enough, as the Wolverines fell to Miami in a slugfest, 16-11.

The next day, Oscar Gamble hit 2 homeruns and this time the Wolverines prevailed, 11-5. However, starter Johnny Marcum had to leave the game, and is headed to the DL nursing an oblique injury. Gene Conley was recalled, having improved a bit during his stint at AAA.

Needing a starter, the Wolverines exchanged Billy Hoeft (who has struggled mightily after a promising start to the season) for Ray Sadecki. Sadecki did alright–2 earned in over 5 innings–but still got tagged with the loss as Detroit fell 10-1 to Miami. George Bechtel, who had pitched well of late, was injured, and will spend about a week on the DL, with Detroit recalling Buddy Napier from his rehab stint after the game.

Ernie Lombardi had 2 round trippers, leading the Wolverines to an 8-6 win over Miami. Chili Davis did the same: 2 homeruns, reaching 30 on the year, in a 10-6 victory over Memphis.

To make room for trade acquisitions, Dick Donovan and Sadecki were both shipped to AAA. Connie Johnson steps into the rotation, while Troy Percival and Steve Howe hit the Wolverines’ bullpen and Bobby Wallace steps into the starting role at SS.

#Memphis Red Sox

At some point, you gotta’ produce … veteran IF Nomar Garciaparra was released, with Dobie Moore being recalled from his rehab assignment.

Sadie McMahon was recalled from AAA leaving the Red Sox bullpen full of arms, but not terribly clear on roles.

Stubby Overmire tossed a complete game 3-hitter as Memphis topped Detroit, 5-0. With the win, Overmire improved to 11-9 and lowered his ERA to 4.27.

#New York Black Yankees

Rogers Hornsby was recalled from his rehab assignment, with Tom Herr heading back to AAA.

Dave Righetti returned to the Black Yankees’ rotation.

Babe Ruth hit his 53rd and 54th homers of the year, leading New York to a 7-1 win over Memphis.

With Waite Hoyt‘s departure, the Black Yankees named the surprising Tony Brizzolara to their rotation for the time being and promoted reliever Jeff Nelson from AAA.

Mike Schmidt and Hornsby went back-to-back twice, but it wasn’t enough as New York’s bullpen couldn’t close it out in an 11-10 loss to Baltimore. The next day, it was Lou Gehrig‘s turn to hit 2 out of the park, giving him 47 on the year and leading New York to a 5-2 win over Baltimore.

TWIWBL 76.1: Year 2, Week 19

August 5th

We enter the dog days …

In addition to the natural clarification of the playoff races, August has 2 very important dates: 8/17 is the trading deadline and 8/23 marks the day rosters can be expanded.

#Awards

#July Awards

All hail Homestead‘s Josh Gibson, who hit .487 with 11 homeruns and 36 RBIs in July to win the NL Batter of the Month. For good measure, Gibson added 19 walks, giving him an OBP for the month approaching .600 (.598).

Los AngelesKal Daniels continues to deliver on his talent, hitting .371 with 12 homers and 30 RBI’s to take home the AL Batter of the Month.

Don Drysedale was in what could most generously be called a funk until July hit, with some even calling for Brooklyn‘s ace to be moved to the bullpen. Instead, he went 5-0 in the month with a 1.81 ERA to take home the NL Pitcher of the Month Award.

MemphisStubby Overmire was named the AL Pitcher of the Month, going 3-0 with a 1.36 ERA in the year, finding some of the form that led to his ERA crown last year.

Drysedale’s teammate John Briggs just keeps proving his doubters wrong. The 21 year old CF took home the July Rookie of the Month Award in the NL, hitting .366 for the month with 8 homeruns, 17 RBI’s, and 20 runs scored. Another CF–Detroit‘s budding superstar Turkey Stearnes–took home the honors in the AL, hitting .337 with 9 homeruns and 25 RBI’s in the month.

For once, there wasn’t much controversy with the awards. Gibson, whose 1.651 OPS led the league for the month, was a clear choice, meaning Houston‘s Jeff Bagwell–second at 1.375–could understand the decision not going his way.

Birmingham‘s Hank Aaron, and Cleveland‘s Lance Berkman and Ron Blomberg each had 13 homers on the month, with Blomberg driving in a ridiculous 39 runners. But Daniels had the higher OPS, and certainly was a defensible choice.

Drysedale was the only hurler with 5 wins in July, and Overmire and he were 1-2 in ERA. So, overall, solid selections across the board.

#Weekly Awards

Stearnes’ hot streak also earned him the AL Player of the Week Award, as he hit .500 with 5 homers in the first week of August. In the NL, a .536 average with 3 homers earned Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson the Player of the Week Award.

#Team Performance

In the Bill James Division, it looks like a 2-team race, with Cleveland now leading the New York Black Yankees by a single game. That makes it and the Marvin Miller Division the ones worth watching–the Marvin Miller is a 3 team race currently, with Kansas City leading Indianapolis by 1.5 and Houston by 3. But Birmingham and the House of David are only 5.5 games back, so nobody is truly out of the picture.

Not so in the Cum Posey Division: with the best record in baseball, San Francisco is the only team in the division over .500 and leads second place Miami by 18.5 games.

The Effa Manley Division is edging closer to being settled, as Brooklyn, now with the 2nd best record in the league, leads Homesteads by 7.5.

Chicago–yes, last year’s playoff contender Chicago–has the worst record in baseball, at 49-63.

#Player Performance

#Batters

I mean … Josh Gibson, ladies and gentlemen. Ty Cobb has regained the SLG lead by .003, but Gibson is having himself a year for the ages at this point.

Top 2 across all categories.

Ron Blomberg (CLE). 291/358/668. 117 RBI.
José Canseco (MCG). 259/370/741. 50 HR.
Oscar Charleston (IND). 342/384/637. 145 H, 12 3B.
Ty Cobb (DET). 369/423/799. 145 H, 44 2B, 96 R, 6.2 WAR.
Kal Daniels (LAA). 339/432/656.
Josh Gibson (HOM). 406/505/794. 7.7 WAR.
Tony Gwynn (HOU). 348/386/558. 141 H.
Joe Jackson (CAG). 355/408/580. 50 2B.
Charles Rogan (PHI). 287/339/614. 12 3B.
Babe Ruth (NYY). 280/413/739. 51 HR,117 RBI,102 R, 5.9 WAR.
Ted Williams (MEM). 313/432/651.

#Pitchers

#Starters

7 players have 13 or more wins, led by San Francisco’s Bump Hadley with 16; we’ve included all of those as well as the top 2 in other categories.

The list has settled somewhat–only the Black Yankee’s Ron Guidry doesn’t really belong on a list of the best starters in the WBL (those strikeouts tho …).

Roger Clemens (HOU). 13-6, 3.43.
A. Rube Foster (KCM). 7-3, 2.89. 0.98 WHIP.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 14-4, 3.93. 167 IP.
Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-7, 4.14. 191 K.
Orel Hershiser (BRK). 14-5, 3.92.
Bump Hadley (SFS). 16-5, 4.05.
José Méndez (MCG). 9-5, 4.34. 164 IP. 0.98 WHIP.
Luis Padrón (IND). 15-3, 3.40. 3.65 FIP, 5.0 WAR.
Eddie Plank (SFS). 15-5, 4.14.
Toad Ramsey (HOU). 13-8, 3.13. 197 K, 0.97 WHIP, 3.17 FIP, 6.2 WAR.
Jim Whitney (MCG). 7-3, 3.05.

#Relievers

All 5 closers with 20 or more saves are listed, as well as top 2 in relevant stats. Relievers are weird–Rod Beck and Michael Jackson have had strong years, but have also had a couple disastrous outings each, leading to ERA’s over 5.00 despite leading the league in saves and holds, respectively.

24 Min IP.

Terry Adams (CLE). 1-4, 3.82. 20 Sv, 2 H.
Rod Beck (SFS). 3-3, 5.17. 27 Sv, 1 H.
Eric Gagne (BRK). 2-1, 2.76. 23 Sv.
Ken Howell (SFS). 4-1, 2.09. 4 Sv, 6 H.
Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-6, 5.73. 1 Sv, 15 H.
Ted Kennedy (PHI). 2-2, 3.64. 4 Sv, 13 H.
Josh Lindblom (HOM). 7-3, 3.60. 26 Sv.
Joe Nathan (LAA). 5-4, 3.57. 20 Sv.
Akinori Otsuka (CAG). 4-1, 1.99. 5 Sv, 5 H.
BJ Ryan (OTT). 2-3, 3.43. 1 Sv, 13 H.

#Looking Back at Preseason Predictions

Some good/some bad, as usual.

In the AL, The San Francisco Sea Lions were the clear preseason favorite, and they’ve delivered; but the experts also had the New York Black Yankees running away with their division, which has certainly not been the case. And nobody saw Chicago’s collapse–the experts saw the American Giants in 2nd place behind the Sea Lions, led by an MVP quality season from Frank Thomas. The Big Hurt has been good, but not that good, and the American Giants have floundered for most of the season.

Over in the NL, the prediction was for Brooklyn and Homestead to be tied for first place, which is not far off. But the Marvin Miller Division is a bit mixed up, with Houston being predicted to coast to a 7 game lead with Kansas City and Indianapolis (currently 1-2) foundering at the bottom of the table.

#Injury Report

Memphis’ Dobie Moore should start a rehab assignment this week, as will the New York GothamsCarson Smith and Ottawa’s Bill Smith.

TWIWBL 73.2 Spotlight on the Chicago American Giants

The American Giants were a strong playoff team last year. At the halfway mark this season, they find themselves 14 games back in the Cum Posey Division, but only 2.5 games back in the Wild Card race.

But, it’s not enough: this team should be doing better.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

The problems are clear: an offense that falls off dramatically after its top half, struggles on the mound, and issues at a couple key positions (CF and SS). The solutions aren’t so obvious, and if things aren’t better by mid-August, the American Giants are a candidate to mortgage their future to address those shortcomings.

THE OFFENSE

The top end–Frank Thomas, Joe Jackson, Eddie Collins, and the surprising Paul Konerko are all excellent and, especially if Dick Allen regains his stroke, may be enough to carry Chicago in a playoff run. But Chicago regularly trots out 5 starters with OPS’ below .750, leaving too many holes.

#What’s Going Right

The big 4 are stunning. Thomas and Shoeless Joe are virtually tied in OPS around .975, with Konerko not too far behind.

Carlton Fisk lags behind in OPS, but as a C, he’s well above average, and leads the American Giants with 21 homers. Thomas leads in RBIs and Jackson has an incredible 41 2Bs.

Collins isn’t the all around leader of last season, but 309/406/418 with 41 SBs from a middle infielder is nothing to sneeze at.

#What’s Not Going Right

The 2 obvious problems are SS and CF. Freddy Parent, picked up at last year’s All-Star break, has been thoroughly disappointing, with an OPS under .550 (although he has flashed some decent leather). Damian Jackson has been given some opportunities, but has fared even worse offensively.

In CF, 18 year old Cristóbal Torriente is clearly still a large part of Chicago’s future. But he may not be part of their present: 188/235/245 won’t cut it, no matter how fast you are or how good you are in the field. This issue has gotten better: Vernon Wells has taken over for Torriente, and is doing alright.

I have no idea how to evaluate Mike Fiore. He’s hitting .181, but his OBP is .340, and he has 12 homers. Is that going right? Going wrong? No idea, but I think going wrong.

Duffy Lewis was injured at the start of the year, and hasn’t clicked since, and is increasingly losing time to Kevin Mitchell in LF.

THE PITCHING

It’s not bad. And some of it–Ed Walsh, Akinori Otsuka–is downright excellent. But everything else needs to step forward.

#What’s Going Right

Last year’s Rookie of the Year, Ed Walsh, is pitching fantastically, despite a modest 6-4 record, sporting a 3.55 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.

Akinori Otsuka, Tom Williams, and Hoyt Wilhelm are a very solid trio in the bullpen, especially Otsuka and Williams.

#What’s Not Going Right

Last year’s ace, Tricky Nichols, has struggled mightily, with an ERA approaching 7.00, and is in danger of losing his spot in the rotation.

The trio of Jamie Moyer, Ben Sheets, and Mark Buehrle have been … thoroughly meh. Just meh. Meh not’s good enough for the playoffs.

AJ Minter has a dozen saves, but also an ERA of roughly 6.50.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

The jewel of the system is the much-traveled Chino Smith. What’s not clear is if Smith will be used as trade bait at the deadline or be asked to move to SS–he’s not going to unseat Collins at 2B.

There is some decent OF talent here: Lenny Dykstra, Walter Davis, Henry Cotto, and Jorge Orta has the bat, if not the glove, to help a WBL team.

On the mound, Jacob deGrom, Harry Buckner, Scott Radinsky, and Ted Lyons all have some ceiling.

So, yeah, some help here.

WHAT’S NEEDED

The bottom of the lineup to step forward, and the pitching overall to improve a shade across the board.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

  • How is the rotation going to fall out? Can Ed Walsh handle a fulltime starting role, and can Mark Buehrle and Ben Sheets handle the back end of the rotation? Still a question, with Walsh, Buehrle, and Sheets now being asked to move up in the rotation.
  • How long do the American Giants stick with Parent–he’s fine, but his level of play over the second half of the season (after the American Giants picked him up from Ottawa) was below championship. How long, indeed.

FEATURED SERIES

The American Giants start the week hosting Memphis for 4 games, so we’ll look at those.

Projected Starters

Memphis’ starter listed first.

David Bush (5-3, 5.98) @ Tricky Nichols (4-8, 6.89)
Jameson Taillon (2-3, 5.12) @ Ben Sheets (4-9, 5.69)
Stubby Overmire (8-6, 4.70) @ Ed Walsh (6-4, 3.55)
Jon Lester (5-4, 5.61) @ Mark Buehrle (6-8, 4.61)

So. Much. Mediocrity. Although the Overmire-Walsh tilt should be a good one. Both teams can score a lot of runs, so let’s say this one goes 2-2.

Before the first game, the American Giants made a move, promoting Rocky Colavito to the big leagues to take the place of Mike Fiore. Colavito and Mitchell will split time in LF, with Duffy Lewis taking on an unfamiliar bench role.

Game One

Carlton Fisk put the American Giants up 1-0 in the 2nd with a solo shot to left. Joe Jackson added to the lead the next inning with a sacrifice fly to deep center, scoring Freddy Parent. Fisk would add a 3rd run in the most unlikely of ways: a walk, a stolen base, and then crossing the plate on a single from Vernon Wells, and Dick Allen would go deep in the 4th, increasing the lead to 4-0.

Tricky Nichols recaptured some of his form from last year, holding the Red Sox scoreless until Gabby Hartnett hit a 2-run shot in the top of the 7th, closing gap to 4-2 and chasing Nichols from the mound in favor of Hoyt Wilhelm. Wilhelm got through the inning without further damage, other than a double from Dobie Moore.

A homer from Wells was offset by a sacrifice fly from Ted Williams, so the lead was still 2, at 5-3 in favor of Chicago.

The American Giants added a couple in the 8th with the key hits being a triple from Jackson and another RBI hit form Fisk. It turned out to matter, as David Ortiz took AJ Minter deep with 2 on and 2 out in the top of the 9th, bringing Memphis within 1 run at 7-6. Minter was able to induce a groundout from Wade Boggs, bringing home the victory for Chicago.

MEM 6 (Feliciano 0-1; Kennedy 6 BSv; Kilby 2 BSv) @ CAG 7 (Ryan 2-2)
HRs: MEM – Hartnett (18), Ortiz (20); CAG – Fisk (22), Allen (17), Wells (8).
Box Score

Game Two

Game 2 will pit Memphis’ Jameson Taillon against Chicago’s Ben Sheets in a matchup of end-of-rotation starters.

Memphis took the lead in the 3rd, scoring 1 on a Wade Boggs double and 2 more on a two-bagger from Bill White. Dobie Moore added a solo shot in the 4th, making it 4-0.

Taillon was sailing along, holding Chicago scoreless through 6. But Joe Jackson singled and Frank Thomas went deep, halving the deficit and chasing Taillon. Sheets, who calmed down after Moore’s shot, lasted until 1 out in the 7th, when a double from Reggie Smith sent him to the showers.

Joe Lake, Sheets’ replacement, gave up an RBI single to Ted Williams, increasing Memphis’ lead to 5-2, cut to 5-3 when Jackson tripled home Eddie Collins. Dave Nilsson singled in one in the 8th, but Andrew Miller got Collins to groundout with the bases loaded, keeping the Red Sox up by 1, 5-4.

An RBI from Smith sent us to the bottom of the 9th with the Red Sox up, 6-4, with their closer, Jonathan Papelbon, coming in from the bullpen.

Papelbon whiffed 2, and the series was tied at a game apiece.

Moore and Smith had 3 hits each for the Red Sox.

MEM 6 (Taillon 3-3; Papelbon 14 Sv; de la Cruz 1 H; Roach 9 H; Miller 8 H) @ CAG 4 (Sheets 4-10)
HRs: MEM – Moore (8); CAG – Thomas (20).
Box Score

Game Three

Tied at one, we get the premier pitching matchup of the series, with Memphis’ Stubby Overmire taking on Chicago’s Ed Walsh. It’s a bit of an odd game for the American Giants, with several regulars getting the day off, resulting in a bit of a patchwork lineup. So, we’ll see.

Walsh gave up 2 in the 2nd on 2-out RBI’s from DJ LeMahieu and Billy Bryan. Reggie Smith hit his 23rd homer of the year in the 5th, extending the lead to 3-0. Meanwhile, Overmire was dealing, holding Chicago scoreless through 5 on only 2 hits. despite loading the bases in the 2nd.

Overmire departed in the 7th after surrendering his 6th walk, to Rocky Colavito, and an infield hit to Freddy Parent. Heath Bell loaded the bases, but escaped without damage.

That was it, really: Bell pitched well in the 8th and Jonathan Papelbon shut the door in the 9th on a combined 3 hit shutout.

MEM 3 (Overmire 9-6; Papelbon 15 Sv; Bell 5 H) @ CAG 0 (Walsh 6-5)
HRs: MEM – Smith (23); CAG – none.
Box Score

Game Four

The American Giants will try to salvage a split behind Mark Buehrle who will be opposed by Memphis’ Jon Lester.

The full strength lineup for the American Giants came through immediately, as Frank Thomas launched a 3 run homerun in the bottom of the 1st. But Jack McAleese–who seems to have locked down the utility OF spot for the Red Sox–drove home 2 in the 2nd and scored on a base hit from Dobie Moore, tying the game at 3.

Ted Williams launched his 25th of the year in the 3rd, giving Memphis a 1 run lead. Chicago evened the score the following inning on a sacrifice fly from Paul Konerko. That lasted into the top of the 5th, when Williams went deep again, this time with a man on. 6-4 Memphis. Buehrle made it into the 6th but a DJ LeMahieu double chased him from the game. His relief, David Price, allowed 2 more runs, making the edge 8-4, Red Sox.

Lester got through the 5th, but by that point he had given up 7 walks and was clearly fatigued. Then, suddenly and surprisingly, the relievers figured out how to pitch, keeping it scoreless until Memphis added a few more in the top of the 9th.

Just about the only bad news for Memphis was Moore having to leave the game after being hit on the hand with a pitch: his ultimate injury status is yet to be known.

MEM 11 (Lester 6-4; Roach 1 Sv) @ CAG 4 (Buehrle 6-9)
HRs: MEM – Williams 2 (26); CAG – Thomas (21).
Box Score

This is emblematic of everything disappointing about Chicago’s year so far: loss after loss and question after question of what if and what’s next. This team needs some help: immediately, they are looking at sending AJ Minter down to AAA and installing Akinori Otsuku as the closer, but it’s going to take more than that.

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