Baseball The Way It Never Was

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Year III Season Preview: Homestead Grays

State of the Franchise

team logo

2 straight losing seasons will get a club overlooked. But the Grays are used to it — Pittsburgh to the core. But 2001 was the year Homestead stopped being a project for the future and started making noise in the present, hanging around the playoff race into the stretch run. Nobody was more surprised than the hometown Yinzers.

Most of the credit goes to a 22-year-old catcher. Josh Gibson hit 400/494/818 with 49 homers and a 12.1 WAR — the first .400 season in WBL history, and a declaration of what is possible in the years to come.

This is a blue-collar club with one commandment, the field is the arbiter. That’s led to a fanbase that lives and dies on offense while holding its breath through every start. The lineup mashes. The pitching is a pile of arms eternally waiting to be sorted. Around Gibson sits a genuinely young core — Willie Stargell the ageless exception, but everyone else in their twenties. Pair that with the 6th-best farm system in the league, and there is something brewing here that demands notice.

2001 Revisited

We told you last spring to expect a step over .500 and, above all, some clarity — on the young infield, on the pile of arms, on who this team actually is. We got 1 of the 3, emphatically.

They finished 77-85, 3rd in the Effa Manley Division, under .500 for a 2nd straight year. So not so much on the first goal. But some questions were indeed answered: Gibson is real. He took the NL Mel Trench Award, a Silver Slugger, and the organizational MVP, at an age when most catchers are still riding buses in the low minors.

He wasn’t alone. Stargell, at 31, declined to acknowledge the calendar — 56 homers and a 1.001 OPS. Rick Reichardt kept grinding (284/355/586 with 39 of his own), Andy Van Slyke played 4 positions, stole 64 bases and led the club in both, and an 18-year-old named Judy Johnson posted a .408 on-base while bouncing around the infield. 5 Grays made the NL All-Star team.

The pitching was something else. 26 arms cycled through the staff. Only Bartolo Colón, who climbed from Double-A to the big club and put up a 2.36 ERA across 50 innings, and the wholly unforeseen Doug Drabek inspired any confidence at all. The deadline help was worse than no help: Juan Marichal posted an 11.40 ERA in a Grays uniform and David Price a 9.00, and neither had been pitching well when Homestead bought them. Which begs the question of why bring them in at all?

The one lasting dividend from that summer was Robb Nen, who turned a thin bullpen into something like a strength. Nen’s contributions weren’t enough to keep them in the Wild Card hunt — but they were enough to raise some hopes for 2002.

Key Changes

In: Logan Hensley (FA); Sherm Lollar (FA)
Out: Nip Winters (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Babe Adams; Logan Hensley; Brook Jacoby; Ricardo Rincón; Rennie Stennett

Best Case for 2002

Colón keeps it up over a full season, Drabek proves last year was no accident, and 1 of the arms buried in the churn does something. That’s all this team needs — not an ace, just a rotation that holds, because the offense will do the rest.

Squint and you can see Gibson being Gibson, Honus Wagner and/or Nap Lajoie finally hitting (and, in doing so, cementing the middle infield for years to come), Stargell aging like wine for 1 more year, and the less heralded bats — Reichardt, Mike Epstein — putting up the numbers nobody outside Pittsburgh believes can continue.

And if that isn’t enough, help may be a phone call away. The clock may start on the crown jewel of their system, SP Clayton Kershaw, sooner than anticipated. Currently the 10th-ranked prospect in all of baseball, Kershaw spent last year striking out 119 in 134 innings of A-ball, and starts 2002 at AAA — skipping AA entirely.

If all of it lands, the Grays contend well ahead of schedule.

Worst Case for 2002

The pitching remains a black box full of fear and pain, and the Grays panic, buying more “veteran arms” to help, whether or not they’re any good. Wagner and Lajoie’s long evaluation returns another year of maybe, but probably not, and Stargell remembers he’s 32.

Key Questions

  • Which arms? WHICH arms? WHICH ARMS? This is the franchise’s defining problem, and it is not an evaluation failure: Homestead projects pitching as well as anyone, drafted Kershaw, and recognized Drabek and Colón the moment they produced. What it won’t do is settle a rotation structure in advance, so the pile gets re-auditioned every spring instead of sorted once. Seen from an angle, Francisco Liriano‘s season-ending injury is a gift — it opens a slot with no name attached to it. The challenge comes due later, when Liriano, Corey Kluber, and Tim Lincecum all come back to a staff that may, suddenly, be overly full — it would be a good problem to have.
  • Do Wagner and Lajoie hit — and can they hold a glove? Homestead spent a good, ready shortstop in Arky Vaughan to get Lajoie, and 2 years on neither he nor Wagner has delivered: OPS of 664 and 701, doubles power and nothing else, no walks, no average. Wagner is the ache — a genuine freak athlete the fans are pulling for. But. Patience is fraying.
  • Does Stargell keep beating the calendar? At 32 he’s old only by the standard of a 2-year-old league, and everyone else is busy shedding bats his age. Homestead is doing the opposite and betting Pops ages well. He earned that with 56 homers, a number he put up in a yard that isn’t supposed to give them away. But, you know, regression is a thing.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CGibson S · Lollar
1BEpstein D · Van Slyke B
2BLajoie F · Stennett
SSWagner D
3BJohnson C · Jacoby
LFReichardt B
CFMcCutchen D
RFClemente C · Van Slyke B · Wilson
DHStargell A
SPColón · Drabek C · Pierce D · Lee F · Adams · Brown · Liriano D (IL) · Kluber (IL) · Lincecum (IL)
RPLindblom A (CL) · Nen A · Jackson C · Rincón · Hensley

2 of those 5 NL All-Stars were Epstein and Reichardt, who between them have 3 selections and roughly no league-wide recognition — nobody scouted either of them, they simply produce, and in this city that is the highest compliment available. The other thing worth noticing is the bottom 2 rows: 9 names listed as starters, 3 of them hurt, and not one of them necessarily reliable.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerC Josh GibsonLF Goose Goslin
Batting Eye3B Judy JohnsonCF Max Carey
Contact2B Nap LajoieCF Lloyd Waner
Running SpeedRF Andy Van SlykeLF Starling Marte; SP Barney Pelty
Base StealingRF Andy Van Slyke; SS Honus WagnerCF Max Carey
IF Defense2B Rennie StennettSS Rey Sánchez
OF DefenseRF Andy Van SlykeCF Jimmy Ripple
StuffSP Tim LincecumRP Justin Grimm
ControlSP Babe AdamsRP Vern Law
VelocityRP Robb NenRP Carson Smith

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (10)20SPClayton Kershaw
2 (11)22SPTim Lincecum
3 (32)24RFPaul Waner
4 (52)242BLew Fonseca
5 (66)25CFJimmy Ripple
6 (93)20SPCatfish Hunter

Others: P John Candelaria, P David Cone, P Daniel Hudson, P Jeff Wallace, OF Lloyd Waner.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Logan Hensley (51).

The 6th-best system in the league and — for a club whose entire problem is pitching — mercifully full of it. A year ago this list produced the lineup’s newest everyday piece (Johnson, then the No. 3 prospect, now the do-everything IF) and the rotation’s best hope in Colón, who graduated by climbing 3 levels in a single season.

Clayton Kershaw is the headline and has moved again: the reigning organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year is now at Triple-A. Behind him, 20-year-old Catfish Hunter.

The depth is the quiet part. The un-ranked layer is arms too — John Candelaria, Daniel Hudson, Jeff Wallace, 20-year-old David Cone — and the one bat in the group is Lloyd Waner, who hit .336 at Triple-A in the same outfield as his brother Paul, ranked 32nd in baseball. More good problems to have.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeJeff Kent, 38 (AAA)Judy Johnson, 19
HeightJohn Candelaria, 6’7″ (AAA)Eric McNair, 5’8″ (AAA)
OPSJosh Gibson, 1.312Rey Sánchez, .612 (A)
HRWillie Stargell, 56Darren Lewis, 2 (AA)
SBMax Carey, 64 (AAA)
WAR (bat)Josh Gibson, 12.1Nap Lajoie, −0.9
WPing Gardner, 15 (AA)
SVJosh Lindblom, 35
ERAClayton Kershaw, 2.21 (A)Dave Giusti, 6.55
WAR (pit)Gary Lucas, 4.3 (AA)Carlos Zambrano, −0.8

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Cleveland Spiders

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Spiders are the best team in the league that nobody’s quite sure how to describe. 2 straight playoff trips, 2 Octobers that ended a round or 2 early — 86 wins and a quick exit in 2000, then 89-73 and a genuine run in 2001, a Wild Card series won over the increasingly hated Black Yankees before the Sea Lions swept them out of the AL Championship. No fatal flaw, no dominant edge. What Cleveland owns instead is optionality: a dozen paths to a win, room to absorb a bet that breaks wrong, and a roster deep enough that no single injury sinks the year (a thesis proven by the absence of controversial star Tris Speaker for all but 40 games of 2000).

The problem is that the same depth cuts the other way. Almost nobody on this roster is fully reliable, fully trusted. So, Do we believe in this guy? is a question Cleveland re-asks on every regular, every March. There is a cliché nature to some of it as well: like so many others, the Spiders are starved for pitching — either an ace to depend on or enough depth to not care. But Cleveland keeps making deals where they move around offensive players, not really addressing the clear bar between them and the elite teams.

Still, a perennial playoff team is nothing to sneeze at, and the talent is here to put it all together. Even if nobody is quite sure exactly how.

2001 Revisited

We spent last spring worried about one position: who plays third base? It was a question of pure scarcity — nobody had stepped up. It was answered very loudly by Evan Longoria: 36 homers, 96 RBI, a Silver Slugger, an AL All-Star nod, and superlative glovework to boot.

Our other big fear was Ron Blomberg collapsing. He most certainly did not collapse, but the cracks deepened. Overall, you cannot complain about his season — 276/348/640 with 54 homers and 143 RBI. But his platoon splits are getting more troubling. Against RHP he was fantastic as ever (321/403/771); against LHP he hit 206/251/432, essentially the same as 2000, but his walks plummeted and his strikeouts took off. Around him the up-years arrived in force: Tris Speaker recovered from injury to slash 312/397/631, Lance Berkman launched 57 homers with a 1.002 OPS in his first full season with the Spiders, Larry Doby hit 41 while seizing claim to the fulltime job in right, and Ed Bailey posted a .920 OPS at C, at 36 to boot.

Still, it ended up par for the course: the arms were fine, but no more than that, and the team couldn’t cross the final hurdle. It’s not a bad place to be — most teams would be envious of the Spiders’ track record. But it’s also not a championship.

Key Changes

In: Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
Out: Joe Sewell (NYY); Joe Smith (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Jim H Manning; Chaz Roe

Best Case for 2002

Someone anchors the staff, with the most likely candidate being Bob Feller, who went 13-3 with a 4.30 ERA in 17 starts as a 21-year-old. And some still think Cy Young will be more than an innings eater. If 1 of those happens, Cleveland will do well, and if by some miracle both happen, perhaps that will get them over the hill.

The key players bounce back (Louis Santop‘s bat returns to his glove, Chuck Knoblauch looks like himself again), and the strong 2001 performances hold — Speaker, Berkman, Longoria, Doby, Arky Vaughan, Bailey. Finally, the Spiders shelled out some value for newly acquired Aroldis Chapman to solidify the bullpen. He has to deliver.

All of that comes together, and there could be celebrations by the lake come Fall.

Worst Case for 2002

It all breaks the other way, everything altogether all at once. Knoblauch’s 2001 wasn’t a dip but the start of a decline; Santop’s bat stays gone; Willie McCovey‘s 34-year-old legs give out, making his compelling late-career debut merely a mirage; Bailey acts his age; Blomberg collapses against more than just LHP; Berkman slides; and Speaker either gets hurt or just pisses everybody off too much. Feller’s elbow breaks, the rotation is again good-not-great, and in a division stacked with the Black Yankees, Tigers, Orioles, and a suddenly-well-armed Memphis, the Spiders plummet in the standings.

Key Questions

  • Does Feller become the ace — and if he doesn’t, will Cleveland finally buy one? Watching Memphis wheel and deal for not 1 but 2 front line starters has to sting a bit, and raise the question of whether Cleveland’s unwillingness to do the same is warranted conviction about their internal talent or front-office timidity when it comes to betting on pitching.
  • Bounce or decline — which is which? Cleveland’s core competency is reading talent on a roster where almost every regular swings 2-plus WAR a year in one direction or the other. It’s a tricky see-saw, and making the wrong call has repercussions. That’s part of what makes Knoblauch (a real sub-replacement collapse in 2001, discipline intact but the power gone) and Santop (a Gold Glove-caliber 21-year-old whose bat cratered) so important: if they fail, not only are there no clear replacements, but it means the org may be fundamentally misguided in how it judges the swings.
  • What does this lineup do against left-handed pitching? Cleveland bats left-handed almost top to bottom — Speaker, Blomberg, Doby, Bates, and McCovey all swing from the left side, into a park built for left-handed power — which is a wonderful thing to be against right-handers and a real potential weakness against lefties. John Ellis, Longoria, and Knoblauch are the right-handed bats of consequence, with Ken Keltner behind them (Berkman and Sammy Strang switch-hit, so they step out of the tilt entirely). It’s an accident of construction more than a plan, and it hasn’t bit the team so far, but it is something to watch.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CBailey A · Santop F · Ellis F
1BBerkman A · Blomberg A · McCovey
2BKnoblauch D · Strang
SSVaughan A · Manning
3BLongoria A · Strang
LFBates C
CFSpeaker S · Doby B
RFDoby B · Berkman A
DHMcCovey · Blomberg A
SPSteen C · Young D · Feller D · Malone · Harder
RPAdams C (CL) · Reed C · Chapman F · Gearrin C · Roe

Speaker, the best player in the org at 24, is also its most difficult presence — the kind of star a proud city hasn’t decided how to love, a target of adoration while the club wins, but if the losses start to pile up, how long will his attitude towards his teammates be tolerated? At the other end of the scale sits McCovey — the 34-year-old who turned up and mashed a 1.107 OPS, a lovable late-bloomer a fanbase can wrap its arms around unreservedly.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerCF Tris Speaker3B Bob Elliott
Batting Eye2B Sammy Strang3B Bob Elliott
ContactCF Tris Speaker2B Steve Sax; CF Kenny Lofton
Running SpeedSS Jim H ManningLF Pat Friel
Base Stealing2B Sammy Strang; LF Johnny BatesSS Bill Dahlen; CF Kenny Lofton
IF Defense3B Evan Longoria2B Sean Rodriguez
OF DefenseCF Tris SpeakerRF Alexis Rios
StuffRP Aroldis ChapmanSP Balor Moore
ControlSP Chuck PorterRP Edward Mujica
VelocityRP Chaz RoeRP Sergio Romo; RP Andrew Bailey

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (63)24RFCraig Wilson
2 (75)23CFLuis Olmo
3 (96)23CFRandy Winn

Others: IF Todd Helton, IF Johnny Hodapp, IF Aubrey Huff, P José Lima, P Balor Moore.

Three ranked prospects, all outfielders, none inside the top 60 — a system a year ago we called one of the worst in the league is, well, still pretty barren. Longoria, Berkman, Vaughan, and Bailey all arrived by spending prospects, and the thin system is what’s left over.

Last year’s top names have turned over completely — Joe Sewell, No. 4 a year ago, was shipped to New York this spring for Chapman. There is some hope in Helton, Hodapp, and Huff, but the position concentration is an issue. Balor Moore is the one arm worth watching — 101 innings of 3.56 ball with 86 strikeouts at Penn Yan, then a 12-inning cameo at Rochester he came through unscored upon.

Kenny Lofton, the org’s Minor League Player of the Year, is a WBL talent stuck at Triple-A.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeEd Bailey, 36Abraham Almonte, 17
HeightRon Reed, 6’6″Ned Cuthbert, 5’6″
OPSTris Speaker, 1.028Matt Carpenter, .458 (A)
HRLance Berkman, 57Steve Sax, 1 (AA)
SBKenny Lofton, 85 (AAA)
WAR (bat)Tris Speaker, 6.7Louis Santop, −1.5
WCy Young, 15
SVTerry Adams, 23
ERABalor Moore, 3.18 (A)Yordano Ventura, 5.98
WAR (pit)Bill Steen, 4.9Howard Ehmke, −0.0 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 97.2: The Spring Training Trades

With just over a week left in Spring Training, we get to see how panicked some teams are, and how much they want to shake things up before opening day.

Unsurprisingly, we start with the Black Yankees and their perennial win-now mentality.

#The Black Yankees Add MI

NYY sends RP Aroldis Chapman, IF Mark Grudzielanek, 2nd Round Pick to CLE for IF Joe Sewell, IF Bill Phillips.

This is more fallout from the Grant Johnson trade in some ways: Sewell will have every shot at displacing Derek Jeter at SS for New York, and the team looks set to juggle their middle infield between those two, Robby Thompson, and Rogers Hornsby.

For Cleveland, they took a blocked talent–Sewell was never displacing Arky Vaughan–and converted it into a great bullpen arm and a valuable pick.

#The Red Sox Have a Rotation

Unsatisfied with just adding Don Drysdale and Red Ruffing, Memphis went shopping on the West coast.

MEM sends IF Dobie Moore, OF Dwight Evans, P Mike Witt to LAA for P Tom Seaver, IF Xander Bogaerts, IF Andrelton Simmons, C Mark Salas.

Clearly, the spine of the deal is Seaver for Moore, but this one has a lot of repercussions: Memphis continues to weed out some of its OF talent, and takes a gamble on Seaver continuing to develop at the WBL level. SS for Memphis is now a scramble between the two new bodies, Adam Everett, and Bud Harrelson; while for Los Angeles, this settles at least half of their middle infield question, and opens the door for some more arms to prove themselves in the rotation as they look to the future.

#CAG Settles at SS. Maybe.

CAG sends U Trea Turner & IF Yoán Moncada to HOU for IF Travis Jackson.

Jackson is clearly ready for WBL time–here he may actually get it; in return HOU gets a prospect in search of a position and one of the ST surprises in Moncada.

#Monarchs Make Moves

KAN sends OF Dale Murphy & IF Carlos Baerga to NYG for OF Benny Kauff.

A classic now v later move. Murphy is desperately in need of a change of scenery, and Baerga remains 4-5 years away, while Kauff should help deepen a lineup in need of power.

But Kansas City wasn’t done.

KAN sends P José Rijo, P Jeff Pfeffer & 1st Round Pick to LAA for 3B Doug Rader.

The Albert Pujols at 3B experiment looks to be officially over, with Los Angeles clearly reacting to the loss of Seaver. Expect David Wright and/or Pedro Álvarez to inherit the hot corner for the Angels.

And this led to another move for Los Angeles.

LAA sends P Brett Anderson & 3rd Round Pick to HOD for IF Richie Hebner, OF Cy Williams & 2nd Round Pick

Los Angeles has now gotten rid of their 2 best pitchers from last season: this is either great faith in their stockpiled arms or pure madness.

#Easy as A-B-C

IND sends P Tom Glavine, P George Medich, P Jack Billingham & IF Robin Ventura to POR for IF Buddy Bell.

Indianapolis gets an all star and former gold glove winner to take over at the hot corner, while Portland lands a lot of future potential, headlined by the 19 year old Glavine.

This deal set the stage for the next one.

IND sends IF Ed Charles & P Dan Plesac to NYY for P Jeff D. Robinson & P Jack Armstrong.

The Black Yankees get a decent bench piece for the price of a Rule V selection–which seems fair to all. The other two arms are essentially fliers–Armstrong back to his seed franchise, Plesac as a veteran LHP hedge.

#Memphis Not Done Yet

MEM sends IF Candy Jim Taylor, P Nathan Eovaldi & 1st Round Pick to BRK for OF John Briggs & 3rd Round Pick.

This one has some heads shaking. Memphis and Brooklyn team up again, with the Red Sox landing what they hope is the CF of the future, and Brooklyn adding some minor league talent and a coveted #1 pick.

Briggs has been doubted every step of his career–this is just another chance for him to prove the haters wrong. For Brooklyn, it clears CF for Duke Snider, and also means their OF glut can now route into the DH for the year.

#BB to BBB

BAL sends IF Asdrúbal Cabrera, P Bill Byrd, IF Roy Smalley Jr. & 3rd Round Pick to BBB for P Steve Avery, P Gio González, P Warren Spahn, OF Curt Flood & 1st Round Pick.

An interesting deal.

In 7 years, Baltimore may see this as a massive win–if Avery develops, if González becomes a rotation starter, if the 1st Round Pick pans out and, perhaps most of all, if a change of scenery reboots Spahn’s career.

That’s a lot of if’s. In the meantime, Birmingham gets a potential answer to their SS woes and a front of rotation arm that excels in limiting homeruns, the Black Barons’ current Achilles’ heel.

TWIWBL 92.3: Off Season Review – Cleveland Spiders

89 - 73, .549 pct.
2nd in Bill James Division, 1 GB
Won AL WC 4-1 over NYY
Lost in AL Championship 4-0 to SFS

Overall

Cleveland had made the playoffs both WBL seasons, but is still in search of that elusive championship.

And, it’s not clear what’s next: unlike Detroit or the Black Yankees, they lack a young superstar to build around; unlike Brooklyn, they lack the pitching to nonchalantly ignore other concerns. They have talent, for sure, but they also seem at risk of imminent collapse.

So some tinkering is in order, or, at least, some good luck to ensure that some of the young talent continues to develop.

What Went Right

Tris Speaker recovered from injury in a major way, emerging as an elite force at CF, slashing 312/397/631 and scoring 124 runs. Nobody likes him, but he doesn’t care.

Lance Berkman is comfortably home in Cleveland, leading the team with 57 homeruns and finishing with a 1.002 OPS in his first full season with the Spiders. I mean, maybe Berkman and Speaker get along.

Ron Blomberg continues to frustrate his critics, slashing 276/348/640 despite a growing platoon split. Blomberg and Berkman tied for the team lead with 143 RBIs.

At 36, Ed Bailey performed as hoped for after coming over from Detroit. It’s unknown how long that lasts, but a .950 OPS from a catcher is a rare thing.

Larry Doby arrived at last, hitting 41 homeruns and providing a solid presence in RF.

Evan Longoria seized the 3B job, settling an open question for the Spiders with 36 homeruns and 96 RBIs.

Arky Vaughan proved the Spiders were right to trade for him last season, providing an .873 OPS and superlative defense at SS.

And then there’s Willie McCovey. Abandoned by most critics to being a AAA veteran, McCovey seized his WBL chance by the scruff, belting 17 homeruns in 140 PAs and refusing to be kept out of the lineup. How that plays out next season is unknown, and at 33 it’s not clear if this is a single season’s good story or the start of a late career blossoming.

The staff is far less comprehensible.

Bill Steen led the way in WAR, with a 13-10 record and a 4.71 ERA. So perhaps he should be considered the staff ace?

Cy Young led the way in wins with a 15-9 record, but a disappointing 5.38 ERA. So perhaps he should be considered the staff ace?

Bob Feller has the best stuff of the trio, leading to a 13-3 record with a 4.30 ERA in 17 starts, to go along with some impressive bullpen appearances. So perhaps he should be considered the staff ace?

Whomever claims that role, they’ll have decent support form the bullpen, with Terry Adams (23 saves), Cory Gearrin, the impressive debut of Al Smith, Firpo Marberry, and the predicted return of Ron Reed from injury.

Mention should be made of Mel Harder, who posted a 10-4 record and a 4.12 ERA in 10 starts before being injured. Harder should be fully recovered for Spring Training.

ALL STARS

Terry Adams
Ron Blomberg
Evan Longoria
Tris Speaker
Arky Vaughan
MAJOR AWARDS

Ed Bailey, All AL Team
Johnny Bates, AL LF Gold Glove
Evan Longoria, All AL Team
Arky Vaughan, All AL Team; AL SS Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONS

Ed Bailey, AL Over 30 Team
Lance Berkman, All AL 2nd Team
Bob Feller, AL 21 & Under Team
Evan Longoria, AL 25 & Under Team
Firpo Marberry, All AL 3rd Team; AL All Rookie 2nd Team
Ron Reed, All AL 3rd Team
Al Smith, All AL 2nd Team
Tris Speaker, All AL 2nd Team; AL All Rounder 3rd Place
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Tris Speaker, MVP
Bill Steen, Pitcher of the Year
Lance Berkman, Heart & Soul
Evan Longoria, Fan Favorite

Balor Moore, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Kenny Lofton, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Probably the biggest disappointment on the offensive end was Louis Santop. Santop is only 20, so he has time to recover from his sophomore slump, but what a slump it is: slashing 195/238/348 will never cut it. Still, Santop’s slump is what prompted the acquisition of Ed Bailey, so that worked out.

Chuck Knoblauch had a hard year, managing only a .700 OPS with very, very little power.

About 200 PAs were wasted on Jake Stahl and Sammy Strang, neither of which could even hit as poorly as Santop.

Pat Malone was thoroughly mediocre on the mound, and while his 28 starts were somewhat useful, his 5.81 ERA was not.

Really, that’s about it–there were other mediocrities on the roster, and some of the usual poor performances across a few dozen innings, but it was a good year by the Lake.

Transactions

March

None.

July

C Victor Martínez, P Bill Drake & 3rd Round Pick to DET for C Ed Bailey & P Claude Passeau.

It was a lot to give up, especially if Drake develops as expected, but Bailey was great and Passeau has some talent, so it probably works out for both teams.

August

None.

Positional Overview

C

Next season will open with the same arrangement as this one closed: Ed Bailey as the regular, with Louis Santop coming in for defense and for his own development. John Ellis can also play here occasionally.

Tucker Barnhart and Andy Etchebarren offer attractive defensive-minded alternatives in the minors.

1B

Willie McCovey has forced himself into this conversation, which has some domino effects, as it moves Lance Berkman from an everyday 1B, to someone splitting their time between 1B, LF, and DH. Ron Blomberg will be here some times, and young Paul O’Neill could be here as well if he makes the roster.

Further down in the system, Bill Phillips and Earl Torgeson have some talent, and Jake Stahl is still at AAA if needed.

2B

The Spring may determine this: Chuck Knoblauch is still the favorite, but both Steve Sax and Sammy Strang will get at least brief looks.

Brandon Drury may be the best in the system.

SS

This is Jim Fregosi‘s job given his arrival via trade.

There were high hopes for Jimmy Rollins, but it feels like both he and Peckinpaugh have been supplanted by Aparicio in the pecking order. Much is open to be determined this Spring.

3B

This was a mess last year, but Evan Longoria has claimed it as his own. This is really useful, as other than Bob Elliott, the talent that is here (Johnny Hodapp, Aubrey Huff, Justin Turner) is all pretty young.

LF/RF

Johnny Bates won the Gold Glove in LF, and probably hits well enough to stay there, but Berkman will eat into some of his time. Larry Doby seems to have the RF spot locked up.

Paul O’Neill will get a long look in the Spring, and both Alexis Rios and Craig Wilson have some talent as well.

CF

An interesting position: Tris Speaker is the CF, no questions there, but Kenny Lofton may be the best trading chip the Spiders have. Doby and Bates can play here as well, and Gus Bell and Jackie Bradley have some talent behind them.

Lower in the system, both Luis Olmo and Randy Winn may have WBL potential as well.

DH

Berkman and Ron Blomberg, with some help from Willie McCovey.

SP

If everything went well, Cy Young, Bill Steen, and Bob Feller would make a strong front 3, with Firpo Marberry, Mel Harder, and Pat Malone providing whatever support is necessary, along with contributions from Stan Coveleski and Yordano Ventura.

But that all feels very, very optimistic: Young and Feller have the talent to take those roles, the rest are a little more suspect.

There is depth in the system, but little high end talent other than perhaps newcomer Claude Passeau. But the group of Wilbur Cooper, Howard Ehmke, Sudden Sam McDowell, Balor Moore, and Whit Wyatt should offer some support at some point.

RP

Terry Adams is a solid closer, and the trio of Ron Reed, Corey Gearrin, and Al Smith look great (there are questions: Reed is recovering from injury and Smith has to avoid that famed sophomore slump). Beyond that, Billy Muffett may get a look in the Spring.

Toby Borland and Andrew Bailey may be needed here at some point.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 0
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 1

So that’s not great. Especially for a thoroughly mediocre system.

TWIWBL 88.2: Teams of the Year By Age

The overall All-WBL Teams can be found here.

In this post, we’ll slowly carve people off those lists as we get younger, beginning with the under 25’s. As we get younger, future potential will begin to be more of a thing.

A full lineup, with DH, plus 3 starters and 3 relievers for each. We’ll start by relisting the overall selections, then new entries for each group will be bolded.

#WBL Teams of the Year

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CEd Bailey (36, DET/CLE)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BJim Thome (28, MCG)Paul Konerko (34, CAG/BBB)
2BEddie Collins (28, CAG)Roberto Alomar (24, OTT)
SSArky Vaughan (27, CLE)Ernie Banks (25, HOD)
3BEvan Longoria (24, CLE)Ron Cey (27, BRK)
LFBabe Ruth (25, NYY)Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CFTurkey Stearnes (22, SFS)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFMickey Mantle (22, NYY)Aaron Judge (27, PHI)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)Willie Stargell (31, HOM)
SPLefty Grove (27, SFS)
José Méndez (23, MCG)
Jim Whitney (24, BBB/MCG)
Luis Padrón (22, IND)
Toad Ramsey (23, HOU)
A. Rube Foster (24, KCM)
RPKen Howell (24, SFS)
Andrew Miller (23, MEM)
Rod Beck (24, SFS)
Lee Smith (34, HOD/KCM)
Eddie Guardado (26, KCM)
Eric Gagne (27, BRK)

#WBL 25 & Under Teams

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CMickey Cochrane (25, SFS)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BHank Greenberg (24, DET)Jeff Bagwell (24, HOU)
2BGrant Johnson (25, HOU/NYY)Roberto Alomar (24, OTT)
SSCal Ripken, Jr (23, BAL)Ernie Banks (25, HOD)
3BEvan Longoria (24, CLE)Albert Pujols (22, KCM)
LFBabe Ruth (25, NYY)Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CFTurkey Stearnes (22, SFS)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFMickey Mantle (22, NYY)Larry Walker (23, OTT)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)Rick Monday (24, OTT)
SPJosé Méndez (23, MCG)
Jim Whitney (24, BBB/MCG)
Bump Hadley (23, SFS)
Luis Padrón (22, IND)
Toad Ramsey (23, HOU)
A. Rube Foster (24, KCM)
RPKen Howell (24, SFS)
Andrew Miller (23, MEM)
Rod Beck (24, SFS)
Terry Forster (22, BRK)
Andrew Chafin (25, HOU)
Fred Cambria (23, PHI)

#WBL 23 & Under Teams

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CIván Rodríguez (21, MCG)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BEddie Murray (22, BAL)Rusty Staub (21, OTT)
2BFrank Grant (22, HOD/SFS)Joe Morgan (22, IND)
SSCal Ripken, Jr (23, BAL)Carlos Correa (23, HOU)
3BJimmie Foxx (22, SFS)Albert Pujols (22, KCM)
LFFrank Robinson (22, BAL)Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CFTurkey Stearnes (22, SFS)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFMickey Mantle (22, NYY)Larry Walker (23, OTT)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)Richie Hebner (23, HOD)
SPJosé Méndez (23, MCG)
Bump Hadley (23, SFS)
Brett Anderson (22, LAA)
Luis Padrón (22, IND)
Toad Ramsey (23, HOU)
Smokey Joe Wood (22, KCM)
RPAndrew Miller (23, MEM)
Goose Gossage (23, NYY)
Julio Teheran (22, LAA)
Terry Forster (22, BRK)
Fred Cambria (23, PHI)
Ted Kennedy (22, PHI)

300 PA Minimums for batters, with 1 exception: Murray only had 145 PAs–1B in the AL just did not have a lot of youth.

#WBL 21 & Under

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CIván Rodríguez (21, MCG)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BRusty Staub (21, OTT)
2BMartín Dihigo (19, MCG)
SSDobie Moore (20, MEM)Judy Johnson (18, HOM)
3BFreddie Lindstrom (20, CAG)Ron Santo (21, HOD)
LFAlejandro Oms (21, MCG)Sherry Magee (21, PHI)
CFKen Griffey Jr (20, POR)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFBryce Harper (20, BAL)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)
SPWalter Johnson (20, POR)
Bob Feller (20, CLE)
Joseíto Muñoz (20, POR)
Ice Box Chamberlain (19, HOU)
JM Ward (20, PHI)
Sandy Koufax (21, BRK)
RPPete Conway (21, DET)
Tom Williams (20, CAG)
Billy Hoeft (19, DET)
Pete Donohue (21, NYG)
Edward Nolan (19, IND)
Vida Blue (21, HOU)

All praises to Ty Cobb, Josh Gibson, and Oscar Charleston for remaining on the list this far. The relievers dip into some rarely used arms, but of the rest, only Freddie Lindstrom was a late-season callup.

There really isn’t an all-teenager team: the only change from the teens above would be the addition of Chicago’s Cristóbal Torriente, perhaps the worst offensive player in the league this year in CF, but surprisingly effective in a few mound appearances.

One more, largely for fun

#WBL Over 30 Team

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CEd Bailey (36, DET/CLE)Jim Pagliaroni (32, MEM/BBB)
1BCarlos Delgado (32, LAA)Paul Konerko (34, CAG/BBB)
2BRogers Hornsby (34, NYY)Ryne Sandberg (33, HOD)
SSBobby Wallace (34, BAL/DET)Ozzie Smith (30, KCM)
3BJim Ray Hart (30, NYG)
LFOscar Gamble (32, DET)Don Buford (32, LAA/NYG)
CFDave Henderson (33, IND)
RFKiki Cuyler (32, POR)Albert Belle (32, BBB)
DHGavvy Cravath (36, BAL)Joey Votto (32, IND)
SPAndy Pettitte (33, NYY)
Connie Johnson (34, BAL/DET)
Charlie Root (31, DET)
Gaylord Perry (33, NYG)
Eppa Rixey (31, IND)
Cliff Lee (30, HOM)
RPJonathan Papelbon (31, MEM/MCG)
Joe Nathan (31, LAA/SFS)
Buddy Groom (37, BAL)
Lee Smith (34, HOD/KCM)
Bob Howry (34, PHI)
Josh Lindblom (31, HOM)

Only 3 names from the All-League Teams (Baily, Konerko, and Lee Smith), reflecting on just how young the league is. This is a very wide range from some very strong performers who are expected to keep it up for a while (those 3, Pettitte, Hornsby, some others) to folks like Dave Henderson and Kiki Cuyler, who are just barely hanging onto their roster spots.

TWIWBL 87.16: The Gold Gloves

We previewed the Gold Gloves in August, but now it’s time to do the real thing, one per position per league. We’ll go through them first, then list the award recipients at the end.

I do believe in defense mattering over time, as such, we’re using an 800 IP minimum for the GG awards. For each position, we’re listing the top 3 in each league, AL followed by NL.

We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

Outfielders also have Assists (A), more romantically referred to as Outfield Kills are runners eliminated on the bases and Arm Runs (AR), which measures the net runs gained on an outfielder’s throws, including runner advancements.

Finally, catchers, who are really their own thing, also have RTO% (the percentage of runners thrown out trying to steal, abbreviated as RT), PB (passed balls), Framing Runs (the number of runs gained by the catcher’s positioning), and cERx, which reflects the ERA while the catcher was behind the plate compared to the overall staff ERA. A cERx below 1 means the catcher was better than the rest of the staff, above 1, worse.

#C

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEffRTPBcERxFR
NLINDJohnny Bench1144.9959.31.31.1936111.037
HODElrod Hendricks923.9948.33.81.144091.015
NYGBuster Posey1095.9968.90.41.003580.9610
ALPORJoe Mauer1103.9969.53.51.043961.015
NYYThurman Munson1122.9959.82.31.003550.964
MCGIván Rodríguez1104.9989.85.71.0546170.982

So, what is a catcher’s primary duty? Helping their staff, controlling the running game, and then, a somewhat distant third, making their own defensive plays.

The choice in the AL is pretty obvious, in the NL, I think it comes down to how much do you weigh Posey’s ability to frame pitches, and his ~150 more innings played than Hendricks.

#1B

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEff
NLKCMBoog Powell1105.9969.13.41.02
HODAnthony Rizzo828.9958.70.81.02
INDJoey Votto10721.0008.45.11.04
ALDETHank Greenberg1159.9968.32.51.02
PORKent Hrbek1007.9958.61.31.03
MEMBill White886.9939.10.51.01

Again, one choice is pretty clear–the NL this time.

In the AL, it’s much closer, but Greenberg makes some plays that Hrbek just doesn’t.

#2B

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEff
NLKCMRobinson Canó1134.9904.611.01.06
BBBCupid Childs1022.9834.57.31.09
PHIChase Utley1173.9944.913.71.07
ALDETCharlie Gehringer971.9894.9-10.70.94
BALMiller Huggins923.9874.310.81.10
MCGCookie Rojas877.9934.4-3.30.97

These are two relatively easy choices. And, there is a question of what’s going on in the AL, where almost everyone has a negative ZR.

#SS

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEff
NLNYGBrandon Crawford1046.9664.211.41.07
INDBarry Larkin911.9754.79.01.07
KCMOzzie Smith1188.9924.712.21.06
ALSFSDick Lundy934.9874.510.81.06
CAGFreddy Parent952.9785.013.61.06
CLEArky Vaughan1143.9824.213.41.09

In the NL, it’s another clear choice: while Smith and Crawford both make the sensational plays, Smith makes all the plays.

The AL is much, much closer and there’s really not much to choose from between Parent and Vaughan. As such, we’ll go with the player who stayed on the field more.

#3B

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEff
NLOTTAdrián Beltré1055.9742.6-0.81.00
BRKRon Cey1138.9752.56.01.03
PHIScott Rolen1155.9702.35.01.06
ALPORBuddy Bell1169.9682.58.01.05
CLEEvan Longoria1148.9632.24.81.04
NYYMike Schmidt1140.9582.45.31.03

The hot corner is a challenge: everyone makes 2, 2 1/2 plays a game, so RF is less useful, although Beltré’s 2.6 does stand out, as does Longoria’s more limited mobility. But it means fPct–as a proxy for errors–and dEff rise in importance. In the AL, while it’s not by a mile, I think Bell is the clear choice while in the AL, it ends up being between Cey and Rolen, with the final edge going to The Penguin.

#LF

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEffAAR
NLINDBob Bescher839.9891.9-4.80.962-2.8
PHISherry Magee839.9941.74.81.041-2.3
BRKRoy White1152.9921.910.31.076-1.0
ALCLEJohnny Bates1018.9782.08.81.064-1.3
SFSRickey Henderson1202.9821.612.21.183-3.6
BALFrank Robinson996.9901.80.21.005-2.2

The AR numbers reflect just how hard it is to prevent runners from advancing on flyballs, and makes Jim Wynn‘s 3.7 mark there all the more remarkable. Unfortunately, the rest of Wynn’s numbers leave him out of the finalists entirely.

The NL is an easy choice, and one that gives us a repeat winner in Roy White. Over in the Al, it’s harder, but Bates makes more plays and has a far better arm than Henderson, despite how much ground the Sea Lions’ speedster covers.

#CF

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEffAAR
NLOTTCarlos Beltrán1045.9822.99.51.0610-1.0
PHIWillie Davis1035.9882.916.31.104-2.8
NYGWillie Mays1214.9892.814.51.054-4.7
ALBALPaul Blair935.9862.711.81.093-2.6
CLETris Speaker1047.9822.810.01.069-2.4
SFSTurkey Stearnes1027.9792.87.41.055-4.7

Assists can be misleading: Detroit’s Chili Davis gunned down 14 runners and Kansas City’s Willie McGee 11, but they, overall, just weren’t effective enough out there to warrant their inclusion. Remember, the weaker the arm, the more often it gets run on, the more chances for assists you may get.

Look, Willie Mays is a great defensive CF. But Willie Davis, simply, had a better year out there. In the AL, you can only unseat Paul Blair if you give massive weight to Speaker’s additional 3 assists. But given how close they are in AR, it’s hard to rationalize that. So Blair it is once again, our 2nd repeat winner.

#RF

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEffAAR
NLBBBHank Aaron945.9791.74.41.0660.6
HOMRoberto Clemente1134.9792.27.11.0611-2.6
KCMStan Musial972.9812.08.41.072-0.4
ALMEMMookie Betts8801.0001.97.61.072-3.8
DETAl Kaline971.9912.13.81.036-1.8
LAAIchiro Suzuki11951.0002.05.71.047-3.0

The NL is insanely close. Musial makes more spectacular plays than Clemente, Clemente makes marginally more plays overall and has that cannon for an arm, although Musial limits baserunners more effectively. It’s a coin flip, but today we’ll go with Clemente’s additional 150 innings as the difference maker.

In the AL, it’s clearly one of the players who didn’t make a single miscue, and although Betts has the edge in a few metrics, Suzuki has over 300 more innings–1200 innings without an error, but with great range, is incredible.

#P

We’re using 140 innings as the cutoff for the pitchers. Additionally, we have access to number of Framing Runs the pitcher benefitted from, as well as the SB numbers against them. Errors tend to be so low from pitchers, that fPct is no longer a really useful metric.

LgTmNameIPRFZRdEffRTFR
NLHODBob Rush1861.23.71.00600
HODJack Taylor1920.95.21.00570
PHIJM Ward1961.03.41.16510.4
ALPORBert Blyleven2040.95.61.00590.3
BALBob Feller1531.03.30.9168-0.3
PORWalter Johnson2140.85.01.20590

Sample size, of course, wrecks havoc with pitcher’s defensive stats. Still, we have what we have.

Not only does Bob Rush make a lot of plays, he keeps runners from stealing, and while Jack Taylor makes more spectacular plays, Rush’s ZR is more than good enough to take the award home. In the AL, Johnson and Blyleven are neck-and-neck, but we’ll go with Blyleven, who has a slight edge in most categories.

#The Gold Gloves

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CIván Rodríguez (MCG)Elrod Hendricks (HOD)
1BHank Greenberg (DET)Joey Votto (IND)
2BMiller Huggins (BAL)Chase Utley (PHI)
SSArky Vaughan (CLE)Ozzie Smith (KCM)
3BBuddy Bell (POR)Ron Cey (BRK)
LFJohnny Bates (CLE)Roy White (BRK)
CFPaul Blair (BAL)Willie Davis (PHI)
RFIchiro Suzuki (LAA)Roberto Clemente (HOM)
PBert Blyleven (POR)Bob Rush (HOD)

There are a surprising number of teams with 2 Gold Glove winners–Baltimore, Portland, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, and the House of David.

But the overall number of finalists may be more interesting, as it should give some indications as to the higher tier defensive units in the league. Here’s how that stacks up:

6. Cleveland
5. Philadelphia
4. House of David, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Portland
3. Baltimore, Detroit, New York Gothams, San Francisco
2. Birmingham, Brooklyn, Memphis, Miami, New York Black Yankees, Ottawa
1. Chicago, Homestead, Los Angeles

TWIWBL 87.15: Teams of the Year

We’re doing 3 teams for each league, with players color coded by their Tier Level (S Tier, A Tier, B Tier, C Tier), with selections for each position, 3 starters, 2 bullpen arms, and a closer.

Just a glance shows the differences in the leagues: you want offense, look at the AL, you want pitching, the NL. That’s a generality, and like all such, not fully accurate: the NL actually has more S Tier bats, but the AL is overall more top heavy offensively.

San Francisco, predictably, leads the way with 12 selections while the rivalry between the Black Yankees and Cleveland continues, with the Bill James Division heavyweights having 8 each.

#AL

PosFirst TeamSecond TeamThird Team
CEd Bailey (DET/CLE)Mickey Cochrane (SFS)Curt Blefary (BAL)
1BJim Thome (MCG)Lance Berkman (CLE)Jack Clark (SFS)
2BEddie Collins (CAG)Rogers Hornsby (NYY)Miller Huggins (BAL)
SSArky Vaughan (CLE)Cal Ripken, Jr. (BAL)Dick Lundy (SFS)
3BEvan Longoria (CLE)Mike Schmidt (NYY)Jimmie Foxx (SFS)
LFBabe Ruth (NYY)Kal Daniels (LAA)Frank Robinson (BAL)
CFTurkey Stearnes (SFS)Tris Speaker (CLE)Mike Trout (LAA)
RFMickey Mantle (NYY)Joe Jackson (CAG)Yasiel Puig (MCG)
DHTy Cobb (DET)Lou Gehrig (NYY)Reggie Jackson (SFS)
SPLefty Grove (SFS)
José Méndez (MCG)
Jim Whitney (BBB/MCG)
Bump Hadley (SFS)
Andy Pettitte (NYY)
Eddie Plank (SFS)
Ed Walsh (CAG)
Brett Anderson (LAA)
Ron Guidry (NYY)
RPKen Howell (SFS)
Andrew Miller (MEM)
Ross Reynolds (LAA)
Al Smith (CLE)
Firpo Marberry (CLE)
Ron Reed (CLE)
CLRod Beck (SFS)Goose Gossage (NYY)Jonathan Papelbon (MEM/MCG)

I do wonder if this points to how fragile Cleveland is. The Spiders are one of only 2 teams to make the playoffs in both WBL seasons, but if you were to pick names likely to fade off this list, Arky Vaughan, Evan Longoria, Al Smith, and Firpo Marberry would jump out.

It also shows just how top heavy Los Angeles is: 2 S-Tier players (plus Brett Anderson and Ross Reynolds) with nothing to show for it. At the other end, there’s Detroit–the other team to make the playoffs each year–with only a single player (the incomparable Ty Cobb) listed, further reinforcing the Wolverines as having done it with a true team effort (although this was also quite close: Terry Adams, Al Kaline, and Hank Greenberg were all in contention for 3rd Team honors).

And the less said about Memphis, the better.

#NL

PosFirst TeamSecond TeamThird Team
CJosh Gibson (HOM)Gary Carter (OTT)Mike Piazza (BRK)
1BPaul Konerko (CAG/BBB)Will Clark (NYG)Jeff Bagwell (HOU)
2BRoberto Alomar (OTT)Joe Morgan (IND)Ryne Sandberg (HOD)
SSErnie Banks (HOD)Carlos Correa (HOU)Alex Rodríguez (OTT)
3BRon Cey (BRK)Albert Pujols (KCM)Scott Rolen (PHI)
LFJim Wynn (HOU)Ryan Braun (BBB)Rick Reichardt (HOM)
CFOscar Charleston (IND)Willie Mays (NYG)Charles Rogan (PHI)
RFAaron Judge (PHI)Larry Walker (OTT)Tony Gwynn (HOU)
DHWillie Stargell (HOM)Benny Kauff (NYG)Rick Monday (OTT)
SPLuis Padrón (IND)
Toad Ramsey (HOU)
A. Rube Foster (KCM)
Smokey Joe Williams (BRK)
Smokey Joe Wood (KCM)
Fernando Valenzuela (BRK)
Roger Clemens (HOU)
Hardie Henderson (PHI)
Orel Hershiser (BRK)
RPLee Smith (HOD/KCM)
Eddie Guardado (KCM)
Robb Nen (NYG/HOM)
Terry Forster (BRK)
Andrew Chafin (HOU)
Fred Cambria (PHI)
CLEric Gagné (BRK)Josh Lindblom (HOM)Bob Howry (PHI)

Brooklyn and Kansas City’s pitching is so strong. And imagine just how bad Ottawa’s pitching had to be, given their offensive representation.

Indianapolis has 3 S Tier players, giving them perhaps the most dominant nucleus in the league to build around. Kansas City has 4 S Tier players, but 2 of them are relievers, so most GM’s would prefer the ABC’s group.

And there are some league-wide deficiencies, especially at 1B and LF. Jim Wynn is a nice player, but the best in the league?

Both of Birmingham’s entrants were brought over in trade … but they also lost Jim Whtiney in those deals.

#Team by Team

Portland had nobody–nobody–who was deemed top 3 in the AL at their position. Ouch.

Baltimore. 4: Curt Blefary, Miller Huggins, Cal Ripken, Jr, Frank Robinson.
Birmingham, 2: Ryan Braun, Paul Konerko.
Brooklyn. 7: Ron Cey, Terry Forster, Eric Gagne, Orel Hershiser, Mike Piazza, Fernando Valenzuela, Smokey Joe Williams
Chicago. 3: Eddie Collins, Joe Jackson, Ed Walsh.
Cleveland. 8: Ed Bailey, Lance Berkman, Evan Longoria, Firpo Marberry, Ron Reed, Al Smith, Tris Speaker, Arky Vaughan.
Detroit. 1: Ty Cobb.
Homestead. 5: Josh Gibson, Josh Lindblom, Robb Nen, Rick Reichardt , Willie Stargell.
Houston. 7: Jeff Bagwell, Andrew Chafin, Roger Clemens, Carlos Correa, Tony Gwynn, Toad Ramsey, Jim Wynn.
Indianapolis. 3: Oscar Charleston, Joe Morgan, Luis Padrón.
Kansas City. 5: A. Rube Foster, Eddie Guardado, Albert Pujols, Lee Smith, Smokey Joe Wood.
Los Angeles. 4: Brett Anderson, Kal Daniels, Ross Reynolds, Mike Trout.
Memphis. 1: Andrew Miller.
Miami. 5: José Méndez, Jonathan Papelbon, Yasiel Puig, Jim Thome, Jim Whitney.
New York Black Yankees. 8: Lou Gehrig, Goose Gossage, Ron Guidry, Rogers Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, Andy Pettitte, Babe Ruth, Mike Schmidt.
New York Gothams. 3: Will Clark, Benny Kauff , Willie Mays.
Ottawa. 5: Roberto Alomar , Gary Carter, Rick Monday, Alex Rodríguez, Larry Walker.
Philadelphia. 7: Fred Cambria, Hardie Henderson, Bob Howry, Aaron Judge, Charles Rogan, Scott Rolen.
Portland. 0.
San Francisco. 12: Rod Beck, Jack Clark, Mickey Cochrane, Jimmie Foxx, Lefty Grove, Bump Hadley, Ken Howell, Reggie Jackson, Dick Lundy, Eddie Plank, Turkey Stearnes.
Wandering House of David. 2: Ernie Banks, Ryne Sandberg.

TWIWBL 87.6: The Shortstops

The first position fairly evenly distributed between the two leagues, we also have the largest discrepancies so far–there is some excellence here along with some truly miserable performances.

Los Angeles is the only team not represented (Bobby Grich is listed with the 2B, nobody else played enough at SS for the Angels).

#S Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLHODErnie Banks25290/314/65359 HR
126 RBI
-10.9 ZR
.930 dEff

WAR would put Carlos Correa and Arky Vaughan here, perhaps even above Ernie Banks. But WAR ain’t everything, and getting the kind of power Banks provides from a SS is very special, even if his defense is not. For me, it’s Banks, and then a cluster of quality in the A Tier.

#A Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLHOUCarlos Correa23318/399/55625 HR4.18 RF
ALBALCal Ripken, Jr23279/326/58432 HR4.80 RF
ALCLEArky Vaughan27294/380/49331 SB13.4 ZR
1.091 dEff

These are all surprises: Carlos Correa to be here at all (and only a late season slump kept him from giving Banks a run for his money), Cal Ripken, Jr to be here this quickly, and Arky Vaughan to have blossomed both with the glove and the bat.

Of the three, I would expect Ripken to have the best shot at moving up.

#B Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
ALSFSDick Lundy22291/338/45057 SB.987 fPct
NLOTTÁlex Rodríguez22252/314/55946 HR
32 SB
ALMCGRobin Yount26266/303/50528 HR
32 SB

This gets a little more complicated. Does Álex Rodríguez‘ offense warrant a nudge up? How about Dick Lundy‘s combination of speed and defense? In the end, they stay here with Robin Yount, who is just as solid as they come across the board. All three of these could move up merely by adding 25 walks a season, but they’re all pretty free swingers.

#C Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
POR/
PHI
Jim Fregosi25265/344/44621 SB4.12 RF
-12.3 ZR
NLHOMJudy Johnson18271/408/4541.078 dEff
ALMEMDobie Moore20291/352/42726 SB
ALBAL/
DET
Bobby Wallace34282/410/377.986 fPct
4.73 RF

There is an argument that Dobie Moore and/or Judy Johnson should move up a level, given their offensive output and their age. At the same time, neither played a full season, so it seems prudent to leave them here.

Had Bobby Wallace been healthy all season, he certainly would have warranted a spot in the B Tier for his mix of OBP and defense, while Jim Fregosi seems to barely warrant a slot here, especially considering his shaky defense. But these are all legit starting SS’s in the league, so the C Tier seems about right (although Homestead’s decision about how to structure their infield may move Johnson away from SS).

#D Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLINDBarry Larkin23230/308/40427 SB1.074 dEff
NLBBBHerman Long27243/271/44524 SB.962 fPct
NLKCMOzzie Smith30235/317/34364 SB.992 fPct
12.2 ZR
MEM/
BRK
Vern Stephens29210/259/414
NLHOMHonus Wagner25230/285/41537 SB.957 fPct
.906 dEff

Speaking of Homestead, Honus Wagner may in fact deserve to be knocked down. But he has power, a fair bit of speed, and just so much athleticism. But whether he ends up at 2B, SS, or 3B is yet to be seen.

Ozzie Smith is a hard one to evaluate, as it’s not clear if his defense and speed should move him here, or all the way up to C Tier. In the end, we decided to be conservative in our evaluation of defensive contributions.

#F Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLNYGBrandon Crawford30221/268/381.966 fPct
ALNYYDerek Jeter33248/305/4394.10 RF
-19.8 ZR
.917 dEff
ALCAGFreddy Parent29229/270/2925.01 RF
13.6 ZR

Derek Jeter‘s offense is probably D Tier, but those defensive numbers are quite bad, nudging him down a category. Brandon Crawford may be done entirely, and Freddy Parent, even considering his glovework, is just a massive bust since being obtained by Chicago.

#Rookies

Cal Ripken, Jr. (A Tier), Judy Johnson (C Tier), and Dobie Moore (C Tier).

#Fielding Notes

We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

TWIWBL 85.5: AL Championship – Cleveland Spiders v San Francisco Sea Lions

#Game 1, Sun Oct 14

Cleveland’s Cy Young, who needs to improve his performance, will face off against San Francisco’s Lefty Grove, who is doing just fine.

Lance Berkman singled in Tris Speaker in the top of the 1st, and Ron Blomberg took Grove deep in the 2nd. Young gave up an RBI single to Jack Clark and an RBI double to Turkey Stearnes in the 4th to tie it up.

So far, so close, but then San Francisco took the lead on a single from Mickey Cochrane and extended it on a hit from Clark, making it 4-2 Sea Lions after 5.

A solo shot from Jimmie Foxx in the 6th chased Young, and Barry Bonds tripled, scoring on a sacrifice fly. That made it 6-2 Sea Lions, which is how it would end after 8 strong from Grove and a closing inning from Ken Howell.

Stearnes had 3 hits, all doubles, and Clark and Foxx added 2 hits each in the victory.

CLE 2 (Young 1-2) @ SFS 6 (Grove 3-0)
HRs: CLE – Blomberg (1); SFS – Foxx (2).
Box Score

Cleveland’s Firpo Marberry was injured, but it’s not clear yet to what extent.

#Game 2. Mon, Oct 15

Still no update on Marberry, leaving Cleveland an arm short in the pen. They’ll turn to Bob Feller–he of the electric, if erratic, stuff–to even the series, while San Francisco will counter with Tim Hudson, getting his 2nd start of the postseason, although he’ll be on a pretty short leash.

Jimmie Foxx opened the scoring with a solo shot in the bottom of the 2nd, but Willie McCovey tied it up in the 3rd with a longball of his own. Three hits in the game through three innings, three homeruns: Rickey Henderson goes deep in the bottom of the 3rd, giving the Sea Lions a 2-1 edge.

Hudson had been rolling, but a Larry Doby double and Evan Longoria moon shot made it 3-2 Cleveland in the 5th. A walk to Ed Bailey and a single to Chuck Knoblauch brought in Watty Clark from the San Francisco bullpen. Johnny Bates singled in a run, but that was it: 4-2 Spiders.

The Sea Lions bounced back right away: 3 walks and a single brought in a run and chased Feller, with Whit Wyatt entering the game with the bases loaded, no outs, and the top of the order due up. Wyatt fanned Henderson, but Cleveland’s shortstop, Arky Vaughan, misplayed a perfect double play ball, scoring a run on the error and leaving the bases loaded. Reggie Jackson stepped up and took advantage, lofting a pitch over the right field wall for a grand slam and an 8-4 lead for San Francisco. Foxx added his second of the game, a 2 run shot, and a walk to Bonds ended Wyatt’s somewhat disastrous showing.

But at the end of all that, 8 runs had scored and San Francisco was up by 6, 10-4. More runs were scored–McCovey went deep again, and Frank Grant hit one out for San Francisco–but the game was decided.

Vaughan’s error was the key moment, as it set the stage for Jackson’s decisive grandslam.

We head to Cleveland with San Francisco holding a 2-0 lead.

CLE 5 (Feller 1-1) @ SFS 12 (Clark 1-1)
HRs: CLE – McCovey 2 (2), Longoria 2; SFS – Foxx 2 (4), Henderson (2), Jackson (6), Grant (1).
Box Score

Marberry tore his labrum, and will be out for a few months. Cleveland brought Claude Passeau onto the playoff roster to take his place.

#Game 3, Wed Oct 17

San Francisco will look to increase their series lead to 3-0 behind Eddie Plank while Cleveland will look to defend their home turf with Bill Steen on the mound.

Bobby Bonds put San Francisco ahead 1-0 with a solo shot in the 2nd and Reggie Jackson doubled it with his 7th homer of the postseason in the 3rd. Singles from Turkey Stearnes and Jimmie Foxx chased Steen, who had whiffed 6, but also walked 4 in just over 4 innings of work. Claude Passeau came in and immediately induced a double play to end the inning.

Meanwhile Plank had a 2 hit shutout into the 6th. But Evan Longoria went deep after a Lance Berkman double, tying the game. Jack Clark answered with a solo shot in the 7th, giving the Sea Lions the lead again, 3-2.

Larry Doby singled home the tying run in the bottom of the 8th, but Cleveland’s closer, Terry Adams, gave up a 3 run shot to Foxx in the 9th. That brought in the Sea Lions closer, Rod Beck, for the bottom of the 9th with the home fans a little dejected and desperate.

Steve Sax singled, but Beck whiffed 2 and got Tris Speaker to line out softly to second to end the game, giving San Francisco a perhaps insurmountable 3-0 lead in the series.

Foxx and Lundy had 3 hits each for San Francisco.

SFS 6 (Howell 1-0, 1 B Sv; Beck 2 Sv; Nathan 1 H) @ CLE 3 (Adams 0-1)
HRs: SFS – Bonds (5), Jackson (7), Foxx (5); CLE – Longoria (3).
Box Score

#Game 4, Thu Oct 18

With everything on the line, Cleveland will turn to Yordano Ventura on a short leash, while San Francisco will ask Bump Hadley to close out the series.

Mickey Cochrane launched his first homer of the postseason in the top of the first, but Cleveland is here to fight: Arky Vaughan took Hadley deep with Johnny Bates on to give the Spiders the lead, 2-1 after 1 inning. Cochrane would score the tying run in the 4th, doubling, moving to 3rd on a wild pitch, and scoring on a Reggie Jackson sacrifice fly to deep right. Jack Clark followed with a homerun, giving the Sea Lions a 3-2 edge.

Ventura lasted 5 innings, leaving trailing by a run, but not having pitched poorly. Cochrane greeted his replacement, Pat Malone, with his 3rd hit of the day and Malone then plunked Jackson. But he recovered, striking out the side to keep it a very close game.

Dick Lundy drove in a run with a single in the 7th, chasing Malone and extending the lead to 4-2. San Francisco scored twice in the 9th, on an inside the park homerun from Turkey Stearnes and a more traditional bomb from Frank Grant.

So, bottom of the 9th, closer Rod Beck in for the Sea Lions, and a 6-2 advantage. Lance Berkman walked, but Beck was effective, ending the game–and the series–on a double play ball by Larry Doby.

Cochrane and Lundy had 3 hits each for San Francisco, who after being pushed to the brink in the Wild Card Round, found their regular season form here, easily brushing Cleveland aside.

SFS 6 (Hadley 2-0; Clark 1 H; Street 1 H) @ CLE 2 (Ventura 1-1)
HRs: SFS – Cochrane (1), Clark (5), Stearnes (3), Grant (2); CLE – Vaughan (3).
Box Score

Jimmie Foxx was the easy choice for MVP, hitting .500 in the series with 5 homers and 7 RBIs.

TWIWBL 85.2: AL Championship Preview

The question is, are the Cleveland Spiders satisfied? They dispatched their Bill James Division rival, the New York Black Yankees, with surprising ease in a year that saw the 2 teams battel for supremacy all season. So there may be a bit of a letdown coming into the AL Championship series against San Francisco.

But … San Francisco looks prime for a stumble, as the team that won the most games in the WBL in the regular season was taken to a full seven games by Detroit, who finished well behind Cleveland in their division.

The Spiders didn’t get much out of Willie McCovey, Ron Blomberg, or Tris Speaker, but still got here, largely on the backs of Larry Doby, Arky Vaughan, and Johnny Bates (and the surprising performance of Chuck Knoblauch, a disappointment for most of the regular season). Also look for John Ellis to get a few starts behind the plate, as he is the only backstop hitting in the postseason. On the mound, a strong performance from Cy Young would go a long way to giving the Spiders a chance here. Yordano Ventura and, especially, Bob Feller, showed up well in the first series, and may be moved up a slot in the rotation.

San Francisco may get even stronger, as Frank Grant is back from a short-term injury. This may have happened at the perfect time, as Royce Clayton–superlative over the regular season as a substitute for Grant–struggled in the first series. That left the Sea Lions with a challenging decision, between replacing Wayne Gross or Phil Garner on the playoff roster. They opted to keep Garner, mostly due to defensive flexibility. The Sea Lions also brought Tommy Bridges onto the roster, replacing Mel Stottlemyre Sr.

Other than that, it’s just more of the same for San Francisco: the big 3 of Lefty Grove, Eddie Plank, and Bump Hadley will continue to drive the rotation, and Rod Beck will continue to close the games out. And the offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, hitting 17 homers and stealing 11 bases in the 7 game series.

It’s hard to make any prediction other than San Francisco. And, honestly, it’s hard to see Cleveland putting up much resistance, Sea Lions in 5. But note, we had the same opinion of the matchup with Detroit. So.

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