Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Chaz Roe

TWIWBL 104.1: Year 3, Week 7 – Swing and a Miss

20 May, 2002

Last week the story was shutouts. This week it was the strikeout. Nine times a starter struck out 10 or more. Three games stood above the rest: a new WBL record, a no-hitter that lasted into the 8th, and a 20-year-old who threw the best game of the week. More below!

#Awards

You could have made a ton of money betting on the AL Player of the Week, which went to a 2-time Gold Glove winner and perennial non-bat, Baltimore‘s Paul Blair. Blair went 7-for-11 with 3 homeruns, 2 doubles, 6 RBI and 4 runs in 4 games in a stunningly out-of-character performance–and one that, in fact, may have been job-saving.

The NL Player of the Week is the New York Gothams‘ Don Buford: 8-for-16 with 3 homeruns, 6 runs and 5 RBI in 3 games, raising his line to 289/395/577. New York bought him at the 2001 deadline to fix left field. Seems fixed.

In the minors: Bob Watson (Ottawa) took the award at AAA Montreal, going 8-for-11 with 3 doubles and 2 homeruns in 3 games; Dave Altizer (Baltimore) won at AA Charlotte, going 10-for-17 with 2 homeruns and 9 RBI; and Hanley Ramirez (Detroit) won at A-ball Toledo, where the 33-year-old first baseman went 11-for-17 with 8 RBI in 4 games. Of those, Watson is probably the closest to the WBL, although Baltimore may be shuffling its roster in toto as they are on the edge of giving up on the season.

#Swing and a Miss

We focused on some strong pitching performances as a theme. The best of the week are detailed below, but they weren’t all. Seven other hurlers reached double digits in strikeouts.

Miami‘s Jim Whitney set a club record with 13, two days after José Méndez tied the old one with 12. Memphis‘ Tom Seaver struck out Mickey Mantle 3 times among his 11, and Detroit’s Charlie Root, Miami’s Camilo Pascual, Indianapolis‘ Luis Padrón and Los Angeles‘ Dwight Gooden had 10 apiece.

And that’s not even mentioning Willie Mitchell‘s 7 strikeouts over 2 1/3 innings of relief–that’s right, 7 batters faced, 7 K’s.

#Seventeen

Earlier this season Detroit’s Sid Fernandez struck out 16 to set the WBL record. On 15 May at Rickwood Field, Brooklyn‘s Smokey Joe Williams took it from him.

Williams struck out Bobby Grich 4 times and Hank Aaron 3 times. He needed the help early: Birmingham‘s Lefty Gomez held Brooklyn scoreless into the 7th, and the Black Barons’ only run came when Williams hit Joe Torre with the bases loaded in the 2nd. Then Brooklyn scored 7 over 2 innings, and the only question left was whether Williams would reach the record.

He came out for the 9th with a high pitch count and 15 K’s. Eddie Mathews flew out to center. Paul Konerko went down swinging for 16. Curtis Granderson took a 2-2 pitch for 17, the last pitch of the game and Williams’s 139th. Final line: 4 hits, 2 walks and a Game Score of 90.

That’s a lot of pitches: time will tell if getting the record was worth it.

BRK 7 (S. Williams 5-1) @ BBB 1 (Bedrosian 1-3)
HRs: none.
Box Score

#Four Outs Away

Cleveland‘s Bill Steen came into Sunday’s start with an 8.13 ERA. This game reminds us how early in the season we are.

He walked Bob Bailey in the 5th, and other than that, Detroit had nothing–no hits, no runs through 7 innings. He struck out the first 2 men in the 8th, both of them swinging. Then Oscar Gamble hit a 1-0 pitch out to right, ending the shutout and the no-hitter and, after one more out, Steen’s day.

Chaz Roe retired the side in the 9th to close it out.

DET 1 (Fernandez 0-1) @ CLE 7 (Steen 2-2)
HRs: DET – Gamble (7); CLE – E. Bailey (8), Doby (5).
Box Score

#94 and 12 @ 20

The best Game Score of the week didn’t belong to either of them.

Portland‘s Joseíto Muñoz, at a not-so-tender 20 years old, threw a 2-hit shutout at Baltimore with 12 strikeouts and 1 walk, for a 94 Game Score. Paul Blair (see Awards above for how surprising a week Blair had) singled in the 3rd and was caught stealing. Manny Machado doubled in the 6th. That was all of it, and Robin Ventura‘s 2-run homer in the 5th was all Portland needed.

Muñoz is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA, and 2nd among starters in FIP and WAR. Portland is in the middle of a teardown, but he and Walter Johnson sure look like the core of a dominant staff worth building around.

POR 2 (Muñoz 3-0) @ BAL 0 (Cuellar 1-5)
HRs: POR – Ventura (7); BAL – none.
Box Score

#Performance

#Team Performance

Seven weeks in, the standings have started to say something. Full standings are at the top of each divisional page.

The Bill James Division is a two-team race. Memphis (30-13) has the best record in the WBL, a .698 clip, and leads the New York Black Yankees by 4.5 games. New York’s 26-18 would share the lead in either NL division. Detroit, Cleveland and Baltimore trail by 13 to 16 and are questioning their life choices.

The Cum Posey Division is just beginning to spread, as Chicago (26-17) leads San Francisco by 2.5, with Miami in last place, 7.5 back–so everyone is within reach.

The Effa Manley Division is the tightest in the league, with every club at .500 or better. Philadelphia (26-18) leads Ottawa and Brooklyn by half a game and the Gothams by one. Homestead, in last place at 21-21, is only 4 back.

The Marvin Miller Division is still volatile, at least at the top, where the House of David (26-18) leads Kansas City by 2 and Houston by 5. Birmingham (9.5 back) and Indianapolis (12.5 back, with the worst record in the WBL) are struggling, but technically could still make a run.

It’s May, and nobody is out of anything, but some of these climbs are steep. Five clubs are at least 6.5 games out of even the second wild card: Detroit (6.5), Cleveland (7), Birmingham (9), Baltimore (9.5) and Indianapolis (12).

#Player Performance

Seven weeks in, qualifying is 3.1 plate appearances or 1 inning per team game: about 135 PA and 43 innings.

#Batters

Ted Williams leads the WBL in batting average, on-base, slugging, hits, homeruns, runs, RBI and WAR. Doubles, triples and steals still belong to others, and Pete Browning is second to him in average and on-base, and tied for the lead in steals.

Top 3 in all stats, other than 3B, where only the leaders (Hank Greenberg and Arky Vaughan) are listed.

Ernie Banks (HOD). 242/305/591. 40 RBI.
Dan Brouthers (BRK). 357/409/593.
Pete Browning (HOD). 368/427/539. 56 H, 13 SB.
Oscar Charleston (IND). 303/341/661. 17 HR, 40 RBI, 2.5 WAR.
Ty Cobb (DET). 335/380/703.
Eric Davis (NYY). 272/375/450. 13 SB.
Hank Greenberg (DET). 239/318/442. 4 3B.
Rickey Henderson (SFS). 235/336/364. 12 SB.
Grant Johnson (NYG). 329/369/659. 54 H.
Willie Mays (NYG). 301/343/564. 36 R.
Joe Morgan (IND). 268/420/441.
Jackie Robinson (BRK). 333/386/538. 18 2B.
Babe Ruth (NYY). 250/400/676. 17 HR.
Ted Simmons (KAN). 289/331/472. 17 2B.
Chino Smith (CAG). 309/356/779. 19 HR, 39 R, 43 RBI, 3.0 WAR.
Turkey Stearnes (SFS). 259/318/669. 17 HR.
Mike Trout (LAA). 297/360/576. 16 2B.
Arky Vaughan (CLE). 279/343/473. 4 3B.
Ted Williams (MEM). 429/540/980. 63 H, 23 HR, 49 R, 59 RBI, 4.3 WAR.
Robin Yount (MCG). 314/335/629. 16 2B.

#Pitchers

#Starters

Four starters share the lead with 6 wins: Steve Carlton, Lefty Grove, Christy Mathewson and J.M. Ward. Charles Radbourn‘s 1.40 ERA leads the league, and Dwight Gooden still leads in FIP and WAR with a 3.73 ERA.

Steve Carlton (PHI). 6-2, 2.72.
Whitey Ford (NYY). 4-2, 2.72. 0.95 WHIP.
Dwight Gooden (LAA). 2-2, 3.73. 1.82 FIP, 2.4 WAR.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 6-1, 2.63. 65 IP, 84 K.
Walter Johnson (POR). 3-4, 2.60. 78 K.
Christy Mathewson (NYG). 6-1, 2.94. 67 IP, 83 K.
Joseíto Muñoz (POR). 3-0, 1.86. 2.20 FIP, 2.0 WAR.
Charles Radbourn (OTT). 3-1, 1.40. 0.86 WHIP, 2.44 FIP, 1.9 WAR.
Tom Seaver (MEM). 5-1, 1.64.
J.M. Ward (PHI). 6-3, 3.86.
Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 5-1, 3.98. 78 K.
Smokey Joe Wood (KAN). 3-1, 2.95. 61 IP, 0.84 WHIP.

#Relievers

Eric Gagné leads with 12 saves. Rate stats below require 12 innings, and Ottawa’s Tom Henke and Billy Koch clear it without an earned run allowed. Ten relievers have 4 wins; only Chad Bradford makes the list, for his holds.

Rod Beck (SFS). 2-2, 3.38. 10 Sv.
Chad Bradford (DET). 4-2, 2.79. 1 Sv, 6 Hld.
Jeurys Familia (LAA). 2-1, 2.79. 6 Hld.
Eric Gagné (BRK). 1-0, 0.56. 12 Sv.
Tom Henke (OTT). 0-0, 0.00. 6 Sv, 0.65 WHIP.
Joe Horlen (CAG). 3-1, 0.49.
Billy Koch (OTT). 2-0, 0.00. 1 Sv, 3 Hld.
Kerry Ligtenberg (BBB). 1-0, 1.16. 1 Sv, 7 Hld.
Gary Lucas (HOM). 0-0, 0.73. 1 Hld, 0.65 WHIP.
Joe Nathan (SFS). 1-0, 1.08. 1 Sv, 3 Hld, 0.48 WHIP.
Jeff Pfeffer (LAA). 0-1, 1.80. 9 Sv.
Vito Tamulis (NYG). 2-1, 4.80. 6 Hld.
Brian Wilson (NYG). 3-1, 1.12. 10 Sv.
Harley Young (BBB). 0-4, 4.58. 9 Sv.

#Hardest Shots

The hardest ball of the week was Nap Lajoie‘s 120-mph grounder off Ottawa’s Bill Smith, good for a double. In the same game Willie Stargell hit Smith at 118 and 117 and made two outs.

Miami’s Jim Whitney launched a 118-mph homer, further pushing his case for a true 2-way role.

#Longest Homeruns

The Gothams’ Willie Mays hit the week’s longest homerun, a 485-foot solo shot against Houston on 14 May. Homestead’s Rick Reichardt hit a 475-foot 2-run homer against Ottawa the same day, and Houston’s Pete Hill answered Mays the next day with a 474-footer.

#Streaks

A few of note. San Francisco’s Turkey Stearnes has both scored and driven in a run in 7 consecutive games.

And then there is Ted Williams, who has reached base in–checks notes and shakes head–forty-one consecutive games. Williams also has an extra-base hit in 5 straight, but it’s that 41 that jumps out at you.

We’ve noted in several places that Ottawa’s Billy Koch and Tom Henke have yet to allow a run this year, giving them 14 and 13 consecutive scoreless games respectively. Kansas City’s Eddie Guardado is working on a 12-game scoreless streak of his own.

Portland’s Joseíto Muñoz hasn’t allowed a run in 14 innings.

#Injuries

Brooklyn’s Nap Rucker hit a snag in his rehab, and now needs surgery on his shoulder. He’ll miss another 8 months.

Indianapolis lost reliever Norm Charlton for about 7 weeks and Ed Swartwood for about 6.

Birmingham’s John Malarkey will miss 2 to 3 months, and Memphis lost OF Andrew Benintendi to a knee injury.

See the team notes for details and related roster moves.

Year III Season Preview: Cleveland Spiders

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Spiders are the best team in the league that nobody’s quite sure how to describe. 2 straight playoff trips, 2 Octobers that ended a round or 2 early — 86 wins and a quick exit in 2000, then 89-73 and a genuine run in 2001, a Wild Card series won over the increasingly hated Black Yankees before the Sea Lions swept them out of the AL Championship. No fatal flaw, no dominant edge. What Cleveland owns instead is optionality: a dozen paths to a win, room to absorb a bet that breaks wrong, and a roster deep enough that no single injury sinks the year (a thesis proven by the absence of controversial star Tris Speaker for all but 40 games of 2000).

The problem is that the same depth cuts the other way. Almost nobody on this roster is fully reliable, fully trusted. So, Do we believe in this guy? is a question Cleveland re-asks on every regular, every March. There is a cliché nature to some of it as well: like so many others, the Spiders are starved for pitching — either an ace to depend on or enough depth to not care. But Cleveland keeps making deals where they move around offensive players, not really addressing the clear bar between them and the elite teams.

Still, a perennial playoff team is nothing to sneeze at, and the talent is here to put it all together. Even if nobody is quite sure exactly how.

2001 Revisited

We spent last spring worried about one position: who plays third base? It was a question of pure scarcity — nobody had stepped up. It was answered very loudly by Evan Longoria: 36 homers, 96 RBI, a Silver Slugger, an AL All-Star nod, and superlative glovework to boot.

Our other big fear was Ron Blomberg collapsing. He most certainly did not collapse, but the cracks deepened. Overall, you cannot complain about his season — 276/348/640 with 54 homers and 143 RBI. But his platoon splits are getting more troubling. Against RHP he was fantastic as ever (321/403/771); against LHP he hit 206/251/432, essentially the same as 2000, but his walks plummeted and his strikeouts took off. Around him the up-years arrived in force: Tris Speaker recovered from injury to slash 312/397/631, Lance Berkman launched 57 homers with a 1.002 OPS in his first full season with the Spiders, Larry Doby hit 41 while seizing claim to the fulltime job in right, and Ed Bailey posted a .920 OPS at C, at 36 to boot.

Still, it ended up par for the course: the arms were fine, but no more than that, and the team couldn’t cross the final hurdle. It’s not a bad place to be — most teams would be envious of the Spiders’ track record. But it’s also not a championship.

Key Changes

In: Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
Out: Joe Sewell (NYY); Joe Smith (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Jim H Manning; Chaz Roe

Best Case for 2002

Someone anchors the staff, with the most likely candidate being Bob Feller, who went 13-3 with a 4.30 ERA in 17 starts as a 21-year-old. And some still think Cy Young will be more than an innings eater. If 1 of those happens, Cleveland will do well, and if by some miracle both happen, perhaps that will get them over the hill.

The key players bounce back (Louis Santop‘s bat returns to his glove, Chuck Knoblauch looks like himself again), and the strong 2001 performances hold — Speaker, Berkman, Longoria, Doby, Arky Vaughan, Bailey. Finally, the Spiders shelled out some value for newly acquired Aroldis Chapman to solidify the bullpen. He has to deliver.

All of that comes together, and there could be celebrations by the lake come Fall.

Worst Case for 2002

It all breaks the other way, everything altogether all at once. Knoblauch’s 2001 wasn’t a dip but the start of a decline; Santop’s bat stays gone; Willie McCovey‘s 34-year-old legs give out, making his compelling late-career debut merely a mirage; Bailey acts his age; Blomberg collapses against more than just LHP; Berkman slides; and Speaker either gets hurt or just pisses everybody off too much. Feller’s elbow breaks, the rotation is again good-not-great, and in a division stacked with the Black Yankees, Tigers, Orioles, and a suddenly-well-armed Memphis, the Spiders plummet in the standings.

Key Questions

  • Does Feller become the ace — and if he doesn’t, will Cleveland finally buy one? Watching Memphis wheel and deal for not 1 but 2 front line starters has to sting a bit, and raise the question of whether Cleveland’s unwillingness to do the same is warranted conviction about their internal talent or front-office timidity when it comes to betting on pitching.
  • Bounce or decline — which is which? Cleveland’s core competency is reading talent on a roster where almost every regular swings 2-plus WAR a year in one direction or the other. It’s a tricky see-saw, and making the wrong call has repercussions. That’s part of what makes Knoblauch (a real sub-replacement collapse in 2001, discipline intact but the power gone) and Santop (a Gold Glove-caliber 21-year-old whose bat cratered) so important: if they fail, not only are there no clear replacements, but it means the org may be fundamentally misguided in how it judges the swings.
  • What does this lineup do against left-handed pitching? Cleveland bats left-handed almost top to bottom — Speaker, Blomberg, Doby, Bates, and McCovey all swing from the left side, into a park built for left-handed power — which is a wonderful thing to be against right-handers and a real potential weakness against lefties. John Ellis, Longoria, and Knoblauch are the right-handed bats of consequence, with Ken Keltner behind them (Berkman and Sammy Strang switch-hit, so they step out of the tilt entirely). It’s an accident of construction more than a plan, and it hasn’t bit the team so far, but it is something to watch.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CBailey A · Santop F · Ellis F
1BBerkman A · Blomberg A · McCovey
2BKnoblauch D · Strang
SSVaughan A · Manning
3BLongoria A · Strang
LFBates C
CFSpeaker S · Doby B
RFDoby B · Berkman A
DHMcCovey · Blomberg A
SPSteen C · Young D · Feller D · Malone · Harder
RPAdams C (CL) · Reed C · Chapman F · Gearrin C · Roe

Speaker, the best player in the org at 24, is also its most difficult presence — the kind of star a proud city hasn’t decided how to love, a target of adoration while the club wins, but if the losses start to pile up, how long will his attitude towards his teammates be tolerated? At the other end of the scale sits McCovey — the 34-year-old who turned up and mashed a 1.107 OPS, a lovable late-bloomer a fanbase can wrap its arms around unreservedly.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerCF Tris Speaker3B Bob Elliott
Batting Eye2B Sammy Strang3B Bob Elliott
ContactCF Tris Speaker2B Steve Sax; CF Kenny Lofton
Running SpeedSS Jim H ManningLF Pat Friel
Base Stealing2B Sammy Strang; LF Johnny BatesSS Bill Dahlen; CF Kenny Lofton
IF Defense3B Evan Longoria2B Sean Rodriguez
OF DefenseCF Tris SpeakerRF Alexis Rios
StuffRP Aroldis ChapmanSP Balor Moore
ControlSP Chuck PorterRP Edward Mujica
VelocityRP Chaz RoeRP Sergio Romo; RP Andrew Bailey

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (63)24RFCraig Wilson
2 (75)23CFLuis Olmo
3 (96)23CFRandy Winn

Others: IF Todd Helton, IF Johnny Hodapp, IF Aubrey Huff, P José Lima, P Balor Moore.

Three ranked prospects, all outfielders, none inside the top 60 — a system a year ago we called one of the worst in the league is, well, still pretty barren. Longoria, Berkman, Vaughan, and Bailey all arrived by spending prospects, and the thin system is what’s left over.

Last year’s top names have turned over completely — Joe Sewell, No. 4 a year ago, was shipped to New York this spring for Chapman. There is some hope in Helton, Hodapp, and Huff, but the position concentration is an issue. Balor Moore is the one arm worth watching — 101 innings of 3.56 ball with 86 strikeouts at Penn Yan, then a 12-inning cameo at Rochester he came through unscored upon.

Kenny Lofton, the org’s Minor League Player of the Year, is a WBL talent stuck at Triple-A.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeEd Bailey, 36Abraham Almonte, 17
HeightRon Reed, 6’6″Ned Cuthbert, 5’6″
OPSTris Speaker, 1.028Matt Carpenter, .458 (A)
HRLance Berkman, 57Steve Sax, 1 (AA)
SBKenny Lofton, 85 (AAA)–
WAR (bat)Tris Speaker, 6.7Louis Santop, −1.5
WCy Young, 15–
SVTerry Adams, 23–
ERABalor Moore, 3.18 (A)Yordano Ventura, 5.98
WAR (pit)Bill Steen, 4.9Howard Ehmke, −0.0 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

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