75 - 87, .463 pct.
5th in Marvin Miller Division, 10 GBOverall
This was such a weird year for Birmingham. They were absolute horrid out of the gate, very strong from June through August, and then faded at the end. During all of that, they (once again) traded away an all star, found some surprising talent on their own roster, and scored way too few runs, despite hitting the ball out of the park with shocking regularity.
Once more it feels like the Black Barons are a couple strokes of luck away from either championship contention or being the worst team in the league. It all centers around making the offense more effective overall, and realizing some of the immense potential in their starting rotation.
What Went Right
Jim Pagliaroni exceeds all expectations, hitting for geometrically more power than anyone could have expected. His .958 OPS made him an elite catcher in the WBL. At 32, it may not last, but it was quite a shock, for sure.
Hank Aaron is right on the verge of superstardom, leading the team in HR (51) and RBI (105). He only drew 16 walks, emblematic of some of Birmingham’s team-wide struggles.
Two players brought in via trade excelled–or, more accurately, performed pretty much as expected. Paul Konerko and Ryan Braun each showed extraordinary power, and Konerko’s plate discipline is desperately needed in Birmingham.
At 23, Eddie Mathews’46 homeruns, 90 RBIs, 99 runs, and 80 walks sure seem like things that went right. But a .224 average and only 12 non-homerun extra base hits are not great.
Harley Young emerged as an excellent option at the back of the bullpen, finishing the year with 15 saves and a 2.29 ERA.
Akinori Otsuka, another trade acquisition, immediately steps into the setup role to get Young the ball.
Fred Fussell was excellent in limited work, laying claim to a role in the bullpen next year.
ALL STARS
Harley Young.
Jim Whitney was selected, but later traded.MAJOR AWARDS
Ryan Braun, NL 2nd Team of the Year
Paul Konerko, NL Team of the YearRECOGNITIONS
JP Arencibia, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Fred Fussell, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Albert Belle, NL Over 30 Team
Paul Konerko, NL Over 30 Team
Jim Pagliaroni, NL Over 30 TeamORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS
Jim Pagliaroni, MVP
Harley Young, Pitcher of the Year
Hank Aaron, Heart & Soul
JP Arencibia, Fan Favorite
Gio González, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Melky Cabrera, Minor League Player of the YearWhat Went Wrong
Despite decent speed and walk rate, Cupid Childs‘s offense was so weak, the Black Barons decided to move on, trading for Bobby Grich. Grich belongs here, too, as while the overall shape of his offense is very strong, the level of performance is distressingly low.
SS was weak all year, eventually devolving into a platoon between Herman Long and Troy Tulowitzki. An upgrade here would be quite a boon.
It’s not clear what to do with Curtis Granderson: 41 homers is good, but a .206 average is most certainly not and, when you think of it, 41 homers with a SLG below .500 is pretty worrisome.
Adrián González continues to be a disappointment, hitting just enough to keep squandering his opportunities. His platoon split was pretty profound, so that may be the solution here next season.
And then there’s the pitching. All the pitching.
We can start with Greg Maddux (10-14, 5.35) and Alejandro Peña (8-11, 5.59), who allowed 109 homeruns between them. Maddux has great stuff, but cannot seem to harness it and Peña looks little more than innings eater at this point.
Bruce Chen had 12 holds, but was rocked more often then not, posting a 6.85 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP.
Warren Spahn continues to be terrible in the WBL, posting an ERA over 8 across 56 innings.
Transactions
March
P Andy Pettitte, OF Mickey Rivers, 3rd Round Pick to NYY for OF Albert Belle, P Frank Viola, P Lefty Gomez, IF Jess Barbour.A win for both teams, and a trade that still may work out for Birmingham: Belle has been as advertised, Gomez looks a mid-rotation WBL starter, and both Viola and Barbour hold promise.
OF Bill Buckner, OF Joe Rudi to MEM for OF David Justice, IF Ozzie Albies, 2nd Round Pick.Who knows? Only Rudi has seen the WBL, but they all have some potential, although time is running out for the 32-year old Justice.
July
Birmingham still felt they had a shot at this point, and decided to make some noise, trading Whitney–a clear all-star having a great season–to try to bring their offense up a notch.
P Jim Whitney, OF Andy Pafko, OF José Cruz, 2nd Round Pick to MCG for OF Ryan Braun, IF Richie Sexson, 7th Round Pick.Whitney is a rare gem on the mound, and ultimately Birmingham may regret this deal, especially with how well Pafko performed for Miami. But Braun is a great talent, and will only see more time as Belle and Konerko age.
August
And now, an even more desperate play for offense.
P Sam Streeter, IF Trea Turner, 5th Round Pick to CAG for P Akinori Otsuka, IF Paul Konerko, OF Lenny Dykstra, 3rd Round Pick.Chicago was tanking at this point. Trade feels fine–Otskuka and Konerko’s present value for Turner’s future, and whatever the American Giants can get from Streeter.
C Gene Tenace, P Vic Wilis, 1st Round Pick to LAA for IF Bobby Grich, 3rd Round Pick.This one came out of nowhere. Grich may be a solve at 2B for Birmingham for years to come, but the price was steep: Willis has a very live arm and a first round pick is a first round pick (Tenace is good, but was pretty blocked here, so his loss is more acceptable).
Positional Overview
C
An interesting challenge for Birmingham here. Pagliaroni clearly is the incumbent, and the fan base fell in love with Arencibia, who also can help out at 1B.
But Joe Torre slashed 282/362/584 at AAA as a 21 year old, and his WBL arrival has to be imminent.
Beyond that, only Earl Battey looks to have a WBL future at some point down the road.
1B
This will be Konerko for a while: his core skillset (power and walks) ages well.
If Adrián González doesn’t impress in Spring Training, look for young Nate Colbert to get a chance, although Colbert probably needs another year in the minors.
There’s some depth here: Frank McCormick, Hal Trosky, Ron Fairly, and Jake Beckley all have some WBL talent.
2B
We’ll see. The Black Barons traded Tom Herr, were shocked by how effective Cupid Childs was, then decided to move on, anointing Bobby Grich as their future. Grich does seem to be the real deal, even if his production this year was lower than hoped.
Ray Durham will get a chance in the Spring to be Grich’s backup.
Beyond that, there is some decent youth: Ozzie Albies, Marcus Giles, Jess Barbour, and Reddy Mack all have some talent and all are under 22.
SS
This is an issue throughout the system.
Right now, it looks like the platoon between Long and Tulowitzki will continue, with George McBride available at AAA if a purely defensive situation were desired.
3B
It’s still Eddie Mathews, and there is hope his overall offensive performance will nudge upwards.
If he falters, the most likely help would come from Pie Traynor.
LF/RF
This is set, with Braun in one corner and Aaron on the other.
Tommy Davis was spectacular in September, but the 23 year old would probably be better served by starting at AAA as opposed to warming the bench.
Gary Matthews is probably the best talent here, but he’s several years off.
CF
This is Granderson’s role for now, but there are rumors that Curt Flood may be given a strong look, and the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year, Melky Cabrera, is coming behind Flood.
DH
Albert Belle is going to see most of the time here, although there are emerging concerns about his bat speed.
SP
It’s probably one more year of hoping that Peña, Maddux, and Lefty Gomez can turn it around, with John Malarkey and Rube Melton the most likely to round out the rotation, although Warren Spahn and Bill Phyle will get looks in Spring Training as well.
There are some voices advocating that Peña move to the bullpen, which would open up another rotation spot.
There’s some likely help at AAA in Pretzels Getzien, Alex Malloy, and Charlie Morton, but the highest ceilings in the organization are probably teenager Steve Avery and Gio González at AA.
RP
Harley Young is the presumed closer, with Otsuka and Fussell assured of spots as well. As long as Chen doesn’t retire or totally bomb out in Spring Training, he should be there as well.
There’s a lot of moderately useful talent in the minors, but only Carlos Diaz and, perhaps, Steve Bedrosian, have arms that truly impress.
Draft Outlook
DRAFT PICKS
1st Round: 0
2nd Round: 1
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 0This is not the year the system gets replenished. SS and 3B may be the areas of greatest need.