Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Joe Thatcher

TWIWBL 98.5: Year 3, Week 1 – Marvin Miller Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Kansas City Monarchs5-2.714
Birmingham Black Barons3-4.4292
Wandering House of David3-4.4292
Houston Colt 45s2-5.2863
Indianapolis ABCs1-5.1673.5
Marvin Miller Division | 8 April

Birmingham Black Barons

The Black Barons opened the year by shutting out the defending champions. Greg Maddux started with 6 scoreless and Kerry Ligtenberg, Bruce Chen and Akinori Otsuka finished a 5-hit combined shutout, 1-0 over Brooklyn.

Otsuka was injured and will spend some time on the DL, with Steve Bedrosian activated in his place.

Indianapolis ABCs

Ed Swartwood was hit by a pitch and is on the disabled list, with Pete Rose recalled from AAA Cincinnati.

Kansas City Monarchs

Smokey Joe Wood struck out 10 over 7 innings in a 7-3 win over Houston, improving to 2-0.

Joe Thatcher was injured while pitching and is on the disabled list; Jeff Reardon was recalled.

Year III Season Preview: Kansas City Monarchs

State of the Franchise

team logo

Kansas City has spent 2 years building a pitching staff and 2 years failing to build a lineup. Perhaps 2002 changes that.

The pitching arrived all at once last season: A. Rube Foster opened the year in the bullpen, moved into the rotation, and threw 204 innings with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, coming 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting. Smokey Joe Wood, 22, went 15-12 behind him and hit well enough to DH on his own start days. Craig Kimbrel inherited the ninth inning and kept it. That, along with the deepest bullpen in the league, makes the staff feel pretty settled.

In front of them sit Albert Pujols and Stan Musial, both 23, both already among the best bats in the league. And then … well … then there wasn’t a lot else. 37% of the Monarchs’ plate appearances went to hitters with a sub-.700 OPS, which is how a team leads the Marvin Miller Division into July and finishes 79-84 and 3rd. The response has been blunt: Robinson Canó, Willie McGee, Lou Brock and Steve Evans all open this season at Triple-A St. Louis, and the org went out and bought 2 bats.

The park is rated the most extreme pitcher’s yard in the league, and the club builds as though that’s true — chase doubles into the gaps, not homers, and let good arms play up.

This is a connoisseurs’ franchise. Its fans will take a 2-1 win and the bases-loaded walk, and they’ll tell you Foster is an ace no matter what his stuff grades say.

2001 Revisited

A year ago we wanted a .500 finish, and the worst case we could imagine was the worst pitching staff in the league with an offense that couldn’t compensate. Kansas City went 79-84 — genuine progress from 66-88 — and got the exact inverse of the nightmare.

The staff turned into a strength. Last year, we thought that might come from Bob Gibson. Not so much: the lightning-armed Gibson put up a 6.82 ERA across 11 starts. Instead, it came from Foster and Wood, and from Lee Smith‘s 0.75 WHIP across 50 appearances, from Eddie Guardado, from Mike Kume‘s 1.95 in 22 games, and from Kimbrel taking the closer’s job after Jeff Pfeffer collected 16 saves with an ERA above 6.

Pujols took the step the preview asked for and then some: 316/375/645 with 44 homers and 96 extra-base hits, and the organizational MVP. Musial had the odd year — 300/371/519 is not a bad line, and 59 doubles is a marvelous one, but 13 homers from a bat like that is a bit of a concern? Maybe?

And it collapsed anyway, because underneath the top the lineup could not hit. Ozzie Smith won a Gold Glove, stole 64 bases and posted a .660 OPS in 525 plate appearances. Canó was among the worst bats in the league. McGee, Frankie Frisch and Brock were not much better.

The pitching arrived in force. The hitting never did, but the signal for change was clear, and acted on — gone are the days of Lou Brock and Willie McGee in the OF, with the Monarchs settling on Cool Papa Bell for speed and defense. Gone as well is the experiment of Pujols at 3B, with Doug Rader being brought over from Los Angeles.

Key Changes

In: Benny Kauff (NYG); Doug Rader (LAA)
Out: Dale Murphy (NYG); Jeff Pfeffer (LAA); José Rijo (LAA)

Opening Day Rookies: Cool Papa Bell; Eddie Guardado; Mike Kume; Jock Menefee; Merv Rettenmund; Joe Thatcher; Kolten Wong

Best Case for 2002

The bottom of the order stops giving at-bats away. Benny Kauff — 38 homers and 39 doubles for the Gothams last year — and Doug Rader turn 2 of last season’s sinkholes into real at-bats, second base firms up into something merely ordinary, and the 23-year-olds take the step their age promises: Pujols again, Musial’s power back alongside the doubles, Ted Simmons building on 47 doubles and an .830 OPS from behind the plate.

Cool Papa Bell, the organizational Minor League Player of the Year, runs down everything hit into the biggest outfield in baseball. Foster repeats, Wood takes the next step, and the spring’s crowded rotation audition produces 3 arms that hold.

Do that, and the pen shortens every game to 7 innings, and a club that led the division in July just might lead it in September.

Worst Case for 2002

The lineup stays bottom-heavy, only with new names attached. Rader drove in barrels of runs in 2000, but really hasn’t shown a lot since: the statheads are not thrilled with his arrival.

Second base never gets solved. The back of the rotation stays replacement-level and the innings behind Foster and Wood get expensive. And Lee Smith is 35 with no proven arm behind Kimbrel, so one injury turns the league’s deepest bullpen into an ordinary one.

Key Questions

  • Can the front office make the hard decisions to raise the standard? The first answer was demotion — Canó, McGee, Brock and Evans are all at Triple-A — and the second was Kauff and Rader, which is where it gets interesting: Rader is a power-and-defense third baseman with a .297 OBP. Kauff is the cleaner fit, a left-handed masher of right-handed pitching. Sure, they need to succeed, but perhaps the more important thing here is the front office finally addressing the offense.
  • Who, exactly, plays second base? Demoting Canó was easy, given his 2001. But … replacing him with a Kolten Wong / Frisch timeshare seems hardly an improvement.
  • Is the rotation more than 2 names? Foster and Wood are a real front pair. Behind them the org has quantity and no clarity — Adam Wainwright threw 187 innings of 4.05 ball at Triple-A, Gibson still has the best stuff on the staff, and Bob Shawkey was worth −2.2 wins in 101 innings. The measure of the crowd: Frank Castillo made the NL All-Star team last year, put up a 5.21 ERA in 193 innings, and opens this season at Triple-A.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CSimmons C · Pérez
1BPowell C
2BFrisch F · Wong
SSO. Smith D
3BRader F
LFPujols S · Bell
CFKauff B
RFMusial C · Rettenmund
DHHarris C
SPFoster S · Wood A · Wainwright · Gibson · Menefee · Shawkey
RPKimbrel A (CL) · L. Smith S · Guardado S · DiPino C · Kume B · Thatcher

Wood is a real bat — 287/343/504 in 140 plate appearances, taken mostly on his own start days — and the org has been open about wanting more of that. And Kume is the mirage: an amazing 2001, but nobody is quite sure how he gets anybody out, ever.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power1B Boog Powell1B Lew Brown
Batting EyeLF Cool Papa Bell1B Otto Schomberg
ContactRF Stan MusialLF Wade Johnston
Running Speed2B Kolten WongCF Jarrod Dyson; CF Alex Diaz
Base StealingLF Cool Papa BellCF Jarrod Dyson; 1B Joe Start
IF DefenseSS Ozzie SmithSS Sam Mongin
OF DefenseLF Cool Papa BellRF Tommy McCarthy
StuffRP Craig KimbrelRP Matt Thornton
ControlSP Smokey Joe WoodSP Luke Hamlin
VelocityRP Craig KimbrelRP Vinnie Pestano

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (4)21SPBill Singer
2 (9)23SSSam Mongin
3 (45)22LFWade Johnston
4 (50)233BBill Bradley
5 (57)25RPVinnie Pestano
6 (86)211BOtto Schomberg
7 (88)222BKeston Hiura

Others: C Johnny Bassler, P Larry French, P Matt Morris, P Hilton Smith.

The 5th-best system in the league, even with Foster (#2) and Bell (#3) now with the big league club. Wade Johnston has plummeted from being ordained the top overall prospect in the league to where he is now, but he was good enough in the Spring to keep the argument alive. Other names from last year: Heliodoro Hidalgo went to the House of David in the deal that brought Lee Smith, Earl Averill to Baltimore, and Carlos Baerga to the Gothams in the Kauff trade.

But the Monarchs just reloaded. Bill Singer is the 4th-ranked prospect in baseball, Sam Mongin has climbed to 9th, and the layer under them is more arms — French the lone left-hander with real upside, Morris and Hilton Smith behind him — plus 19-year-old catcher Johnny Bassler. And note the name at the bottom of the ranked list: Keston Hiura plays second base. So that could be useful.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeJoe Start, 38Johnny Bassler, 19
HeightAdam Wainwright, 6’7″Otto Briggs, 5’7″
OPSAlbert Pujols, 1.020Otto Briggs, .585 (A)
HRAlbert Pujols, 44Otto Briggs, 2 (A)
SBOzzie Smith, 64
WAR (bat)Albert Pujols, 6.2Otto Briggs, −0.4 (A)
WSmokey Joe Wood, 15
SVStan Yerkes, 23 (AA)
ERAA. Rube Foster, 3.30Hilton Smith, 7.29 (A)
WAR (pit)A. Rube Foster, 3.8Bob Shawkey, −2.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 89.1: Off Season Review – Kansas City Monarchs

79 - 84, .485 pct.
3rd in Marvin Miller Division, 6 1/2 GB

Overall

Kansas City led the Marvin Miller Division for most of the first half of the season … and then pretty much collapsed.

They have a top 3 or 4 pitching staff in the league in terms of high end performance, but struggle after that talent, especially in the rotation, and ultimately have a pretty weak offense that needs multiple upgrades.

It’s an interesting conundrum. Albert Pujols, A. Rube Foster, Smokey Joe Wood, Lee Smith, Eddie Guardado, and Craig Kimbrel are as good as they come. And Stan Musial, Ted Simmons, and perhaps even Ozzie Smith are solid.

But the talent falls off the cliff after that, and it’s not really clear what the solution is: do you hope for improvement from some of the young talent? Do you move some of the high end for overall upgrades? Do you just stand pat and applaud the various accolades earned by that top group? The off season in Kansas City could range from nothing to incredibly active.

What Went Right

All the elite talent.

Albert Pujols led the team in most things, slashing 316/375/645 with 44 homers and 96 extra base hits. Pujols played mostly at 3B this season, and it’s not sure how long that can last, as LF or 1B or DH seem a more likely destination for him.

A. Rube Foster was spectacular, finishing the season with a 3.30 ERA and a miniscule 1.02 WHIP. Foster, who ended up with an 11-8 record, was in the bullpen at the start of the year, but still made 24 starts and finished with over 200 IP.

Lee Smith, brought over from the House of David was virtually unhittable, finishing with a 0.75 WHIP over 50 appearances. Smith paired with Eddie Guardado, whose numbers were actually quite similar, to setup closer Craig Kimbrel. It took a while for this back of the bullpen to emerge: the Monarchs started the season with Jeff Pfeffer as their closer (Pfeffer did amass 16 saves, but also an ERA over 6.00).

Smokey Joe Wood missed some time through injury, but was excellent otherwise, being one of the few 2 way players with a positive contribution both ways. Wood finished 15-12 with a 4.11 ERA and excellent peripherals.

After those, there is a bit of a dropoff, but some things still went well.

Stan Musial had an odd year. It’s not like 300/371/519 is bad. But it’s far below Musial’s potential, and while 59 doubles is great, Musial only hitting 13 homeruns is quite a disappointment. Still, not bad.

Ted Simmons is excellent behind the plate, and his .830 OPS is very strong for a catcher.

Boog Powell hit a severe slump towards the end of the year, but still provided some power and an ability to get on base.

Kansas City’s 3rd and 4th primary starters, Frank Castillo and José Rijo, were solid, although not much more than that.

Mike Kume was the surprise of the season, posting a 1.95 ERA in 22 games, and further solidifying their relief corps.

Adam Wainwright and Matt Morris both impressed in limited appearances late in the year.

Ozzie Smith, Willie McGee, Musial, Frankie Frisch, Lou Brock, and Cool Papa Bell combined for over 200 steals.

ALL STARS

Frank Castillo
A. Rube Foster
Craig Kimbrel
Stan Musial
Albert Pujols
MAJOR AWARDS

A. Rube Foster, NL Team of the Year; NL Brock Rutherford Award 3rd Place; NL Rookie of the Year 2nd Place
Eddie Guardado, NL Team of the Year
Craig Kimbrel, NL Phineas Flint Award 3rd Place
Lee Smith, NL Team of the Year; NL Phineas Flint Award 2nd Place
Ozzie Smith, NL Gold Glove SS
RECOGNITIONS

A. Rube Foster, NL All Rookie Team; NL 25 & Under Team of the Year
Eddie Guardado, NL All Rookie Team
Joe Harris, NL All Rookie Team
Mike Kume, NL All Rookie Team
Albert Pujols, NL 2nd Team of the Year; NL 25 & Under Team of the Year, NL 23 & Under Team of the Year
Lee Smith, NL 30 & Over Team of the Year
Ozzie Smith, NL Over 30 Team of the Year
Smokey Joe Wood, NL 2nd Team of the Year; NL 23 & Under Team of the Year
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Albert Pujols, MVP
A. Rube Foster, Pitcher of the Year
Stan Musial, Heart & Soul
Craig Kimbrel, Fan Favorite

Joe Thatcher, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Cool Papa Bell, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Robinson Canó was among the league’s worst offensive performers, showing none of the power he displayed in year 1.

Ozzie Smith provided speed and defense, but virtually no offense.

Steve Evans, much hyped in Spring Training, was so poor he ended up in AAA.

Pfeffer’s struggles were mentioned above: in the long run, his demise cleared the way for Kimbrel, so perhaps this is more silver lining than something going wrong.

Bob Gibson has explosive stuff, but managed a 6.82 ERA over 11 starts. At 26, he really needs to start to produce.

Luke Hamlin–the Monarchs’ #1 last year–worked his way out of the rotation, ending the year 6-12 with a 5.55 ERA. Likewise, a key part of last year’s bullpen, Dustin Hermanson, was pretty bad this season.

Transactions

March

None.

July

IF Heliodoro Hidalgo, P Jimmy Key, & 3rd Round Pick to HOD for IF Joe Harris & P Lee Smith.

Harris is a quality bat off the bench, but at 36, that’s his best role. But, Smith is the real key to the deal, and his performance this year along may make the deal worthwhile.

August

At this point, Kansas City thought they still had a chance to make the post-season, which helps give context for this deal.

OF Earl Averill to BAL for P Joe Beggs & 2nd Round Pick.

Averill is a loss, but the Monarchs really believe CF belongs either to Cool Papa Bell or Willie McGee. Beggs was OK, and should help out next year as well.

Positional Overview

C

Ted Simmons should have this locked up for a decade.

Behind him, teenager Johnny Bassler has a lot of talent. Until he’s ready, Salvador Pérez will continue to be Simmons’ backup at the WBL level.

1B

Powell will man 1B again for Kansas City, but Andre Thornton made a good showing in a September callup, and could be turned to if Powell’s end of season struggles continue.

Joe Harris and Pujols play this as well; behind them there’s not a lot of WBL level talent in the system.

2B

If Canó cannot improve dramatically, this is an area of need for Kansas City. Frankie Frisch was better than Canó when given the chance, but that’s not saying much. Behind them, Kolten Wong and Keston Hiura look to have some talent, but don’t look really ready for the WBL.

Hiura, Wong, and perhaps veteran Rex Hudler may get opportunities in Spring Training.

Carlos Baerga may end up here, but at 19 he still has a way to go.

SS

The Monarchs are fine with what Ozzie Smith provides, so look for his backflips to remain for a few years.

Beyond Smith … there’s not a lot. Edgar Rentería has all the tools, but hasn’t shown much and Sam Mongin looks likely to be best at other positions.

3B

An interesting conundrum for the Monarchs here: on the one hand, Pujols is one of the best in the game; on the other, he’s likely to move out of this position. So, for now, Pujols. But the question of who else is available is potentially important.

Frisch can play here, but veteran Ken Boyer is a more likely interim solution while Mongin, Bret Barberie, and Bill Bradley sort out their development.

LF/RF

LF is a bit of a free for all.

While Cool Papa Bell may end up in CF, he and Ducky Medwick are the lead contenders, but the Monarchs are still trying to figure out what to do with Dale Murphy.

This is all waiting for the arrival of the highly regarded Wade Johnston, but that’s still a year or two away.

RF, on the other hand, is set with Musial: if this year’s version of Musial is the Musial we get, he’s still an all-star caliber player. And that is seen pretty much universally as his floor.

There is some talent behind Musial as well: Steve Evans, Merv Rettenmund, Jim King, and Tommy McCarthy could all be decent WBL 4th outfielders.

CF

Bell and Murphy can play here, and the Monarchs believe Willie McGee can bounce back from a disappointing season.

One of those need to step up, as only veteran Fielder Jones looks to have legitimate WBL talent in the minors.

DH

This is set as some mixture of Pujols, Harris, and Murphy.

SP

So few teams have the challenge of having too many options on the mound, but welcome to Kansas City.

A. Rube Foster and Smokey Joe Wood will anchor the staff, with José Rijo‘s spot also assured.

Behind them, however, there will be some competition during the Spring between Jock Menefee, Bob Gibson, Frank Castillo, Joe Beggs, Matt Morris, Adam Wainwright, and Bob Shawkey. And while veterans Luke Hamlin and Jeff Pfeffer will get a chance, most assume their days in the rotation are done.

Bill Singer and Hilton Smith are probably the highest ceiling arms in the minors, although both Larry French and Marcus Stroman have some potential as well.

RP

The WBL bullpen should be among the best in the league, with Lee Smith, Eddie Guardado, and Frank DiPino getting the ball to Craig Kimbrel.

Mike Kume was excellent, but there are hints it may have been a bit of a fluke. Veteran Matt Thornton will compete with Dustin Hermanson, Joe Thatcher, and Trevor Rosenthal for the final spots.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 2
3rd Round: 0
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 1

It’s really a best player available situation, perhaps with a prejudice away from C and RF.

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