Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Logan Hensley

Year III Season Preview: Homestead Grays

State of the Franchise

team logo

2 straight losing seasons will get a club overlooked. But the Grays are used to it — Pittsburgh to the core. But 2001 was the year Homestead stopped being a project for the future and started making noise in the present, hanging around the playoff race into the stretch run. Nobody was more surprised than the hometown Yinzers.

Most of the credit goes to a 22-year-old catcher. Josh Gibson hit 400/494/818 with 49 homers and a 12.1 WAR — the first .400 season in WBL history, and a declaration of what is possible in the years to come.

This is a blue-collar club with one commandment, the field is the arbiter. That’s led to a fanbase that lives and dies on offense while holding its breath through every start. The lineup mashes. The pitching is a pile of arms eternally waiting to be sorted. Around Gibson sits a genuinely young core — Willie Stargell the ageless exception, but everyone else in their twenties. Pair that with the 6th-best farm system in the league, and there is something brewing here that demands notice.

2001 Revisited

We told you last spring to expect a step over .500 and, above all, some clarity — on the young infield, on the pile of arms, on who this team actually is. We got 1 of the 3, emphatically.

They finished 77-85, 3rd in the Effa Manley Division, under .500 for a 2nd straight year. So not so much on the first goal. But some questions were indeed answered: Gibson is real. He took the NL Mel Trench Award, a Silver Slugger, and the organizational MVP, at an age when most catchers are still riding buses in the low minors.

He wasn’t alone. Stargell, at 31, declined to acknowledge the calendar — 56 homers and a 1.001 OPS. Rick Reichardt kept grinding (284/355/586 with 39 of his own), Andy Van Slyke played 4 positions, stole 64 bases and led the club in both, and an 18-year-old named Judy Johnson posted a .408 on-base while bouncing around the infield. 5 Grays made the NL All-Star team.

The pitching was something else. 26 arms cycled through the staff. Only Bartolo Colón, who climbed from Double-A to the big club and put up a 2.36 ERA across 50 innings, and the wholly unforeseen Doug Drabek inspired any confidence at all. The deadline help was worse than no help: Juan Marichal posted an 11.40 ERA in a Grays uniform and David Price a 9.00, and neither had been pitching well when Homestead bought them. Which begs the question of why bring them in at all?

The one lasting dividend from that summer was Robb Nen, who turned a thin bullpen into something like a strength. Nen’s contributions weren’t enough to keep them in the Wild Card hunt — but they were enough to raise some hopes for 2002.

Key Changes

In: Logan Hensley (FA); Sherm Lollar (FA)
Out: Nip Winters (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Babe Adams; Logan Hensley; Brook Jacoby; Ricardo Rincón; Rennie Stennett

Best Case for 2002

Colón keeps it up over a full season, Drabek proves last year was no accident, and 1 of the arms buried in the churn does something. That’s all this team needs — not an ace, just a rotation that holds, because the offense will do the rest.

Squint and you can see Gibson being Gibson, Honus Wagner and/or Nap Lajoie finally hitting (and, in doing so, cementing the middle infield for years to come), Stargell aging like wine for 1 more year, and the less heralded bats — Reichardt, Mike Epstein — putting up the numbers nobody outside Pittsburgh believes can continue.

And if that isn’t enough, help may be a phone call away. The clock may start on the crown jewel of their system, SP Clayton Kershaw, sooner than anticipated. Currently the 10th-ranked prospect in all of baseball, Kershaw spent last year striking out 119 in 134 innings of A-ball, and starts 2002 at AAA — skipping AA entirely.

If all of it lands, the Grays contend well ahead of schedule.

Worst Case for 2002

The pitching remains a black box full of fear and pain, and the Grays panic, buying more “veteran arms” to help, whether or not they’re any good. Wagner and Lajoie’s long evaluation returns another year of maybe, but probably not, and Stargell remembers he’s 32.

Key Questions

  • Which arms? WHICH arms? WHICH ARMS? This is the franchise’s defining problem, and it is not an evaluation failure: Homestead projects pitching as well as anyone, drafted Kershaw, and recognized Drabek and Colón the moment they produced. What it won’t do is settle a rotation structure in advance, so the pile gets re-auditioned every spring instead of sorted once. Seen from an angle, Francisco Liriano‘s season-ending injury is a gift — it opens a slot with no name attached to it. The challenge comes due later, when Liriano, Corey Kluber, and Tim Lincecum all come back to a staff that may, suddenly, be overly full — it would be a good problem to have.
  • Do Wagner and Lajoie hit — and can they hold a glove? Homestead spent a good, ready shortstop in Arky Vaughan to get Lajoie, and 2 years on neither he nor Wagner has delivered: OPS of 664 and 701, doubles power and nothing else, no walks, no average. Wagner is the ache — a genuine freak athlete the fans are pulling for. But. Patience is fraying.
  • Does Stargell keep beating the calendar? At 32 he’s old only by the standard of a 2-year-old league, and everyone else is busy shedding bats his age. Homestead is doing the opposite and betting Pops ages well. He earned that with 56 homers, a number he put up in a yard that isn’t supposed to give them away. But, you know, regression is a thing.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CGibson S · Lollar
1BEpstein D · Van Slyke B
2BLajoie F · Stennett
SSWagner D
3BJohnson C · Jacoby
LFReichardt B
CFMcCutchen D
RFClemente C · Van Slyke B · Wilson
DHStargell A
SPColón · Drabek C · Pierce D · Lee F · Adams · Brown · Liriano D (IL) · Kluber (IL) · Lincecum (IL)
RPLindblom A (CL) · Nen A · Jackson C · Rincón · Hensley

2 of those 5 NL All-Stars were Epstein and Reichardt, who between them have 3 selections and roughly no league-wide recognition — nobody scouted either of them, they simply produce, and in this city that is the highest compliment available. The other thing worth noticing is the bottom 2 rows: 9 names listed as starters, 3 of them hurt, and not one of them necessarily reliable.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerC Josh GibsonLF Goose Goslin
Batting Eye3B Judy JohnsonCF Max Carey
Contact2B Nap LajoieCF Lloyd Waner
Running SpeedRF Andy Van SlykeLF Starling Marte; SP Barney Pelty
Base StealingRF Andy Van Slyke; SS Honus WagnerCF Max Carey
IF Defense2B Rennie StennettSS Rey Sánchez
OF DefenseRF Andy Van SlykeCF Jimmy Ripple
StuffSP Tim LincecumRP Justin Grimm
ControlSP Babe AdamsRP Vern Law
VelocityRP Robb NenRP Carson Smith

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (10)20SPClayton Kershaw
2 (11)22SPTim Lincecum
3 (32)24RFPaul Waner
4 (52)242BLew Fonseca
5 (66)25CFJimmy Ripple
6 (93)20SPCatfish Hunter

Others: P John Candelaria, P David Cone, P Daniel Hudson, P Jeff Wallace, OF Lloyd Waner.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Logan Hensley (51).

The 6th-best system in the league and — for a club whose entire problem is pitching — mercifully full of it. A year ago this list produced the lineup’s newest everyday piece (Johnson, then the No. 3 prospect, now the do-everything IF) and the rotation’s best hope in Colón, who graduated by climbing 3 levels in a single season.

Clayton Kershaw is the headline and has moved again: the reigning organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year is now at Triple-A. Behind him, 20-year-old Catfish Hunter.

The depth is the quiet part. The un-ranked layer is arms too — John Candelaria, Daniel Hudson, Jeff Wallace, 20-year-old David Cone — and the one bat in the group is Lloyd Waner, who hit .336 at Triple-A in the same outfield as his brother Paul, ranked 32nd in baseball. More good problems to have.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeJeff Kent, 38 (AAA)Judy Johnson, 19
HeightJohn Candelaria, 6’7″ (AAA)Eric McNair, 5’8″ (AAA)
OPSJosh Gibson, 1.312Rey Sánchez, .612 (A)
HRWillie Stargell, 56Darren Lewis, 2 (AA)
SBMax Carey, 64 (AAA)
WAR (bat)Josh Gibson, 12.1Nap Lajoie, −0.9
WPing Gardner, 15 (AA)
SVJosh Lindblom, 35
ERAClayton Kershaw, 2.21 (A)Dave Giusti, 6.55
WAR (pit)Gary Lucas, 4.3 (AA)Carlos Zambrano, −0.8

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Detroit Wolverines

State of the Franchise

team logo

Ask Detroit and they’ll tell you, without blinking, that the Wolverines are the real class of the Bill James Division — and that nobody outside the Motor City gives them a lick of credit. This is a club that went to Game 7 of the 2000 Whirled Series, owns the best player alive, and has made the playoffs in both years of the league’s existence. Of course, it is also a club that has finished a game under .500 and has never won the division, because the same thing keeps happening: the offense is a fireworks show, the pitching a house fire.

The window here isn’t measured in years. It’s measured in Ty Cobb, 22 years old and the best player on the planet, and every decision bends toward getting the most out of the time they have with him. Hank Greenberg (25) and Al Kaline (22) fill out a young, ferocious core, and Hal Newhouser (22) is the live arm they hope comes good. Greenberg looks content in Cobb’s enormous shadow. Kaline — a .957-OPS force in his own right — is the one to watch, the second star who may, in time, want a little light of his own.

Detroit believes in the box score: home runs, RBI, wins and losses, and their front office will tell you to take your fancy-ass WAR and shove it. Unless, of course, you’re referring to Cobb’s 9.3 watermark last season. That they believe in. The creed has built a genuinely fearsome lineup and, year after year, the wrong pitching staff.

Two seasons in, 2002 is less a campaign than an audition: find a dependable rotation — hell, even half a dependable rotation — or watch the Cobb clock start forcing hard choices.

2001 Revisited

We sold you a very well-balanced team last spring, a championship contender, with only some fussing about an aging supporting cast and a shaky middle infield. Half right. The middle infield fixed itself — Charlie Gehringer took second base and a deadline trade landed Bobby Wallace at short — and the aging role players mostly held.

What we badly undersold was the imbalance. This was not a balanced team. It was a historic offense bolted to a broken staff.

The bats were absurd. Cobb hit 386/440/841 with 54 homers, 72 doubles, 140 RBI, 157 runs and 82 steals (!), taking the Mel Trench Award and the All Rounder Award. Greenberg mashed 59 home runs and won a Gold Glove at first. At 21, Kaline claimed an everyday outfield job and posted that .957 OPS. Oscar Gamble carried a .396 on-base with 35 bombs, Ernie Lombardi and Bob Bailey combined for 53 homers, and a 35-year-old rookie named Juan Beníquez slugged his way to an .888 OPS.

They even had someone out-hit Cobb: J. D. Martinez posted a 1.291 OPS (.010 over Cobb’s) on 321/389/902 with 19 homers. Only 41 G, but still, that’s impressive.

Then there was the pitching. 28 arms cycled through the staff. Exactly 2 of them — Newhouser and closer Mike Henneman — finished with an ERA under 5.00, and nobody posted a WHIP under 1.30. Justin Verlander, Johnny Marcum, and a parade of others took the ball and got hammered. 81-82, 3rd place, and a first-round wild-card exit to San Francisco in which, of course, the arms got torched.

The lesson repeats until it’s learned: you cannot outscore a fire.

Key Changes

In:
Out: Logan Hensley (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Wander Franco

Best Case for 2002

One arm holds. Newhouser repeats his organizational Pitcher of the Year form, Verlander’s long evaluation finally resolves into a real number 2, or one of the kids — Pete Conway, the loud-spring wildcard Sid Fernandez, someone else — simply pitches.

That’s it. A lineup this good doesn’t need a great staff, only a competent one. Give Cobb, Greenberg, and Kaline a rotation that survives October, let Henneman anchor the deepest bullpen the club has ever had, and Detroit runs off with a soft division and, for once, might win a series instead of giving it away on the mound.

Worst Case for 2002

The rotation dies on schedule. Newhouser stays intermittent, Verlander stays combustible, the 35-year-old Connie Johnson breaks down, and a lineup that is louder on the scoreboard than in the WAR column can’t paper over a staff-wide 5.00. Detroit effectively treads water for a 2nd consecutive year, making that the true reality, and the championship challenge of 2000 a dim memory.

That outcome results in some churn as well. With Cobb’s prime too precious to waste and a surplus of bats the only currency on hand, the untouchable core stops being untouchable. Pieces move — and that, of course, is a crapshoot. Finally, there is Cobb himself: as the losing sets in, the proud, prickly identity curdles, and the fierce competitor in right field starts looking like something meaner.

Key Questions

  • Can they even recognize an ace? Detroit spends capital on pitching freely, buying Connie Johnson and Troy Percival last summer alone. It’s about evaluation. The Wolverines keep buying arms off a good month and watching them evaporate. Verlander is the test case: future rotation anchor, or future carpenter? Detroit has to answer that correctly, and its whole short history says it doesn’t do that so well.
  • Who plays the outfield and DH — and does Chili Davis finally get moved? With Cobb, Kaline, and Gamble spoken for and J. D. Martinez demanding at-bats, there’s a genuine logjam, and Chili Davis has already lost it — he opens the year on the bench, a big power name without a slot in the standard lineups. He’s the obvious piece to sell, Detroit keeps seeing his power track record, and keeps hesitating. Moving him means the front office finally might glance beyond the box score.
  • Who’s the shortstop — and the second baseman — in 2 years? Wallace is 35 and brittle, a 1-year bridge with no heir in the system; some will point to Wander Franco, who breaks camp at 20, but carries some conduct questions. Gehringer looks OK at 2B, but they’ve thought that before (Joe Wood, Tony Lazzeri, Damion Easley, etc, etc).

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CLombardi C · V. Martinez · Carrigan
1BGreenberg A · Beníquez C
2BGehringer C
SSWallace C · Franco
3BBailey C
LFGamble B
CFKaline B
RFCobb S · Davis C
DHJ. D. Martinez
SPNewhouser · Root F · Johnson · Verlander F · Conway · Fernandez · Marcum (IL)
RPHenneman D (CL) · Percival D · Bradford D · Napier C

The catching depth is real and quietly unusual — most teams don’t carry 3 backstops, and those that do tend not to anticipate solid contributions from all of them.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power1B Hank GreenbergLF Wes Covington
Batting EyeLF Oscar GambleLF Jack Cust
ContactRF Ty CobbSS Mike Caruso
Running SpeedRF Ty CobbCF Shane Victorino; RP Charlie Hilsey
Base StealingRF Ty CobbSS Ray Chapman; 3B Joe Werrick
IF Defense1B Hank Greenberg2B Hobe Ferris
OF DefenseRF Ty CobbRF Chris Denorfia
StuffSP Hal NewhouserRP John Hiller
ControlSP Dick DonovanRP Bill Gallagher
VelocityRP Troy Percival; SP Justin VerlanderRP Felipe Vázquez; RP Joakim Soria

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (54)23SPJohn Healy
2 (85)23CFMoose McCormick
3 (90)23SPFrank Lary
4 (94)19CBill Freehan

Others: P George Mullin, P Milt Pappas, P Jack F Wilson, IF Ray Chapman, OF Riley Greene.

A year ago this list was topped by 2 names now anchoring the everyday lineup — Kaline, last spring’s No. 1 prospect, and Gehringer at No. 4. A third, Emil Yde was shipped out to Baltimore. What replaced them is, for once, the right shape: the system ranks 18th and thin, but half the ranked names are armsJohn Healy (A) and Frank Lary (AA). The published order is not the org’s own, though: the name Detroit rates highest is the one the list ranks lowest, 19-year-old catcher Bill Freehan, and it thinks a good deal more of recent draft pick Riley Greene than his absence would suggest.

There are some other interesting arms: George Mullin struck out 172 across Double-A and Triple-A last year at 24, Milt Pappas put up 124 innings of 4.21 ball, and Jack F Wilson punched out 105 in 108 innings at Triple-A. None of them is a front-of-rotation answer and the run prevention is ordinary across the board. But competence is the goal, and they just might clear that bar.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeTony Lazzeri, 37 (AA)Billy Hoeft, 19 (AAA)
HeightChad Bradford, 6’5″Charlie Hilsey, 5’7″ (A)
OPSTy Cobb, 1.281Bill Freehan, .368 (A)
HRHank Greenberg, 59George Mullin, 1 (AA)
SBTy Cobb, 82
WAR (bat)Ty Cobb, 9.3Bill Freehan, −2.0 (A)
WCharlie Root, 11
SVFrank Lary, 29 (A)
ERAMickey Lolich, 2.95 (A)Justin Verlander, 6.48
WAR (pit)George Mullin, 4.0 (AA)Troy Percival, −1.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 95.4: The Rule V Draft

There was some very interesting talent available through the Rule V Draft, and some teams decided to use it quite aggressively. Remember, these players need to stay on their new team’s WBL roster all year, or they revert to their original team.

It should be interesting …

Note that gaps in the picks indicate teams skipped their turn.

PickTeamClaimsFromNotes
1PORCF Paul HinesBALOF depth. Unlikely to stick.
2MEMRP Ed SewardMCGSure, could make it. Good MiL stats.
3CAG1B Mickey VernonPORThe search for a replacement for the injured Frank Thomas continues.
4LAA2B Billy HermanHODA dark horse to be the steal of the draft. Should claim starting role in ST.
5BBBSS Dick GroatHOMSmart pick for a team starved for MI talent.
6NYGSS Billy NashDETNash did fine for DET, but was blocked there. Could have a legit shot to stick with the Gothams.
7OTTP Nip WintersHOMThis one could hurt–both teams are desperate for SP.
8HOMRP Logan HensleyDETShrug.
11KANP Earl HamiltonHOMCombine this with Winters, and the Grays could rue this day.
12MCGP Sam McDowellCLEA smart pick, McDowell could easily last the season in Miami
16PHI3B Buddy MyerINDDecent utility IF, could work.
18NYYP Jeff RobinsonINDUnlikely to survive in NY.
21PORSS Leo CardenasBBBGiven how weak POR’s MI is, this could work.
23CAG1B Tino MartinezOTTMore 1B hedging–clearly CAG thinks it is cheaper to throw a lot of options out in ST than acquire after opening day.
26NYGOF Tip O’NeillHODNice pick, should be able to hang around given the weakness of the Gothams’ OF.

TWIWBL 90.5: Off Season Review – Detroit Wolverines

81 - 82, .497 pct.
3rd in Bill James Division, 9.5 GB
Lost to SFS 4-3 in AL Wild Card

Overall

One of 2 teams to make the playoffs in each of the 2 WBL seasons, the Wolverines still seem like they are a team under construction. Like so many other franchises, it feels like it all comes down to the pitching, and whether they can put together a rotation that delivers consistently.

On offense, it’s all about Ty Cobb: as long as the 21 year old phenom is healthy, Detroit will score runs. Cobb’s not alone, and this year his supporting cast took a leap forward, as the excellence of Hank Greenberg, Oscar Gamble, and Al Kaline was supported by an overall solid group.

But the issue is really in the rotation where something between the dependable mediocrity of Charlie Root and the occasional brilliance of Hal Newhouser needs to emerge.

What Went Right

Ty Cobb, the nearly unanimous AL Brock Rutherford Award winner, was utterly ridiculous, slashing 386/440/841, hitting 72 doubles and 54 homeruns, driving in 140, and scoring 157 times. And, oh yeah, 82 steals. Just ridiculous.

Hank Greenberg raised his game, posting a 1.024 OPS with numbers that would have led most teams (59 homeruns and a 266/352/672 slash line).

Al Kaline laid a strong claim to being Detroit’s RF for years to come, with a .957 OPS and solid defense.

JD Martinez forced his way into the lineup again and again, managing (in 41 games) an OPS even higher than Cobb’s via a 321/389/902 slash line–that’s right, a .902 SLG curtesy of 19 homeruns in 126 PAs.

Oscar Gamble continued to be surprisingly effective, with an OBP nearly .400 and 35 homeruns. Perhaps even more surprising, 35 year old Juan Beníquez refused to give up his starting spot, posting an .888 OPS as a late career rookie.

Ernie Lombardi and Bob Bailey were quite solid at C and 3B respectively, combining for 53 homeruns and 142 RBIs.

In limited action, Tony Lazzeri and Ray Chapman each hit well, providing a short term solution to the middle infield. The long term solutions–Charlie Gehringer at 2B and Bobby Wallace at SS–were solid enough to settle the positions heading into the Spring.

What, you want a positive from the pitching staff? I’m looking, I really am.

Ah! Pete Conway. Conway was totally unheralded coming into the season, and finished 9-3, albeit with pedestrian looking WHIP and ERA (1.38 and 5.18, respectively).

I guess Hal Newhouser was a bright spot as well as the only starter with an ERA under 5.00, and the occasional bursts of brilliance. If Newhouser’s control can improve slightly, he could develop into a deserved front of rotation starter.

Mike Henneman was solid at closer after returning from injury.

That’s about it.

ALL STARS

Ed Bailey (subsequently traded)
Ty Cobb
MAJOR AWARDS

Ty Cobb, AL Mel Trench Award; AL All Rounder Award; All AL Team; AL DH Silver Slugger
Hank Greenberg, AL 1B Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONS

Juan Beníquez, AL All Rookie Team
Ty Cobb, AL 25 & Under Team; AL 23 & Under Team; AL 21 & Under Team
Pete Conway, AL 21 & Under Team
Oscar Gamble, AL Over 30 Team
Charlie Gehringer, AL All Rookie Team
Hank Greenberg, AL 25 & Under Team
Billy Hoeft, AL All Rookie 2nd Team; AL 21 & Under Team
Connie Johnson, AL Over 30 Team
Al Kaline, AL All Rookie Team
Charlie Root, AL Over 30 Team
Bobby Wallace, AL Over 30 Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Ty Cobb, MVP
Hal Newhouser, Pitcher of the Year
Oscar Gamble, Heart & Soul
Ernie Lombardi, Fan Favorite

Mickey Lolich, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Wes Covington, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Offensively, what went wrong was largely solved by season’s end: the middle infield was a bit of a mess, as Billy Nash, Joe Wood, and George Davis all struggled. But Charlie Gehringer was acceptable at 2B and the trade for Bobby Wallace should solve SS, especially with the promising play of Ray Chapman and Tony Lazzeri at both positions.

Likewise, catching could have been an issue after Detroit traded away all star Ed Bailey, but Ernie Lombardi stepped into a nearly full time role as smoothly as the Wolverines could have hoped.

Roughly 25 pitchers made their way through Detroit, so that’s an indication that quite a bit went wrong.

We can start with Johnny Marcum, Si Johnson, and Justin Verlander, each given at least a half-dozen starts over the course of the season and each getting hammered, although Verlander ate up enough innings to accumulate some useful WAR.

Only 2 pitchers (nominal ace Hal Newhouser and closer Mike Henneman) managed ERA’s under 5.00 and nobody–nobody–had a WHIP under 1.3. The staff was just not good, with Joakim Soria, Vernon Wilshire, George Bechtel, Billy Hoeft, and Ray Sadecki earning particularly poor marks.

’nuff said.

Transactions

March

P Claude Osteen & 1st Round Pick to HOD for 2B Charlie Gehringer & 3rd Round Pick.

Sure. I mean the 1st is a lot to give up, but Gehringer played well enough to look like a long-term solve at 2B for Detroit.

July

C Ed Bailey & P Claude Passeau to CLE for C Victor Martinez, P Bill Drake, & 3rd Round Pick.

An odd one: they traded arguably the best catcher in the league to a division rival, but got decent value in return, as Martinez–despite his struggles this year–could supplant Lombardi and Drake looks to have a WBL future.

August

P Gene Conley, P Bill Drake, P Emil Yde, OF Hub Collins, & 2nd Round Pick to BAL for IF Bobby Wallace & P Connie Johnson.

Drake’s stay was very brief in the end, as Detroit kept trying to balance future and present needs. They may have overpaid here, but Conley had totally imploded, Johnson retains some value and if they can get a few productive years out of Wallace, it will be fine.

P Dellin Betances, IF Robby Thompson, & 3rd Round Pick to NYG for P Steve Howe & P Troy Percival.

Thompson was pretty blocked, so this seems fine, especially if Percival sticks around for a bit.

Positional Overview

C

Next year should be a mixture of Ernie Lombardi and Victor Martinez, but they’re really just holding space until 18 year old Bill Freehan develops a bit more.

Bill Carrigan and Johnny Gooch are available if reinforcements are needed, although Derek Norris and Johnny Romano project to have more upside.

1B

Hank Greenberg is just entering his prime, and should have this locked down for a while. Juan Beníquez can fill in here, and veteran minor leaguer Wes Covington will get a look as well.

2B

Feels like Charlie Gehringer has seized this, but there are options, with Ray Chapman, George Davis, Tony Lazzeri, Billy Nash, and Damion Easley all able to play here. Chapman, at 23, is the only option younger than Gehringer, who is 25.

SS

The Wolverines gave up a bunch of talent for Bobby Wallace, with clear expectations that, at 35, he has at least a few years left. We’ll see.

It’s essentially the same crew behind him as at 2nd base, with the addition of the somewhat troubled, yet immensely talented, Wander Franco.

3B

Wallace can play here as well, but a mixture of Bob Bailey and Juan Beníquez are likely to see the bulk of the time.

Minor League vet Jimmy Collins may get a look as well, but that’s more a reward for time served than anything else.

LF/RF

For now, Oscar Gamble and Al Kaline, although a desire to get Ty Cobb on the field may cut into Gamble’s time a bit.

There are some useful pieces if needed: Bob Fothergill, Chuck Hinton, Geoff Jenkins, even Ron Swoboda.

CF

Detroit will still trot out Chili Davis here. He’s good enough at the plate, and they can live with the defense for a while. If they need help from the minors, it’s probably Adolfo Phillips or Johnny Mostil, although Kaline may be able to play here as well (which would solve the Cobb dilemma nicely).

DH

It’s Ty Cobb most days, but the Wolverines are committed to getting JD Martinez in the lineup as much as possible, so some of the OF variant mentioned above may be needed.

SP

This is the question.

Right now, this looks like Hal Newhouser, Connie Johnson, Charlie Root, Pete Conway, and an open competition with Justin Verlander and Johnny Marcum most likely to take the 5th spot.

And if you squint, maybe, just maybe, that could be a solid rotation. But the Wolverines are concerned.

George Mullin, George Bechtel, and Logan Hensley will get a look during the Spring as well, as will Mickey Lolich.

RP

The bullpen should be good, with a shot at being excellent. Mike Henneman has a shot at being among the best in the league if he can stay healthy, and the setup crew of Buddy Napier and Chad Bradford has been strongly bolstered through the arrival of Steve Howe and Troy Percival.

So, pretty settled. Hence all the focus on the starters.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 0
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 1

This doesn’t look like the year the Wolverines replenish their farm system–perhaps more importantly, they don’t really have the draft capital to use for starting pitching.

TWIWBL 82.3: Bill James Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Cleveland Spiders83-65.561
New York Black Yankees84-66.560
Detroit Wolverines75-74.5038.5
Baltimore Black Sox69-80.46314.5
Memphis Red Sox65-84.43618.5
Bill James Division | 17 September

#Baltimore Black Sox

Justin Hampson and, perhaps more importantly, Gavvy Cravath have been recalled from rehab assignments. Without much to play for, Baltimore may limit Cravath’s appearances as they look to next season. Rafael Betancourt and Ken Griffey Sr were returned to the minors.

With RA Dickey‘s retirement, Baltimore decided to take a look at Dick Ellsworth, removing Dickey from the roster, although they have allowed him to remain with the team as he decides whether or not he has a career in coaching.

Dennis Martínez will get 2 more starts over the final 2 weeks of the season, and Ned Garvin will, as he continues his return from injury, take his regular turn: aside from that, it’s a bit of a free for all, although Kevin Tapani‘s strong debut guarantees him a few starts as well.

Ellsworth’s debut was fantastic: 6 plus innings and only a single run in a 4-2 victory over Los Angeles. Hampson also made his return with a scoreless 8th inning.

Sean Marshall was recalled from the DL with Joe Cascarella heading back to AAA.

#Cleveland Spiders

Lance Berkman and Ron Blomberg each went deep twice as the Spiders dominated Chicago, 13-6. The win (along with a victory in the resumption of a suspended game) pulled Cleveland, at least temporarily, 1/2 game ahead of New York.

#Detroit Wolverines

Wes Covington–coming off a 50 HR season at AAA–was recalled, along with IF Damion Easley and lefty Wilson Álvarez. Logan Hensley was returned, clearing room for Hank Aguirre‘s return from the DL.

JD Martinez went deep twice and the Wolverines edged in front of Miami for the final Wild Card spot with a 5-4 win over San Francisco.

#New York Black Yankees

Jorge Orta did nothing wrong to be sure, but with Grant Johnson due back from a rehab assignment, he was the odd man out, heading back to AAA. Ultimately, Johnson’s return means a reduction in time for quite a few players, most notably Derek Jeter, Don Mattingly, and Nick Etten.

Mattingly and Lou Gehrig had 2 homers each, and Johnson had 4 hits, including 3 doubles, as the Black Yankees overcame a poor start from Ron Guidry to beat Detroit, 11-8 in 10 innings.

The Black Yankees clinched their expected playoff spot in dramatic fashion, scoring 6 in the top of the 9th to top Detroit, 9-6. The win puts New York in a dead heat with Cleveland atop the Bill James Division and, as importantly, drops Detroit into a tie with Miami for the final AL Wild Card spot.

Gehrig hit 2 more out, reaching 62 for the season, and Babe Ruth added his WBL record 70th, as the Black Yankees beat Cleveland, 7-2. The win means New York will go into the final week of the season with a 1.5 game lead over the Spiders.

TWIWBL 79.3: Bill James Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Cleveland Spiders73-55.570
New York Black Yankees72-59.5502.5
Detroit Wolverines66-65.5048.5
Memphis Red Sox59-70.45714.5
Baltimore Black Sox57-73.43817
Bill James Division | 27 August

#Baltimore Black Sox

Cal Ripken Jr went deep twice and drove in 5 in a 14-11 win over Chicago. Moody slugger Gavvy Cravath will miss about 3 weeks with a quadriceps injury, with the Black Sox recalling OF Ken Griffey Sr, a stalwart AAA performer, for a complimentary cup of WBL coffee.

Curt Blefary had quite an unexpected day. His 9th inning homer to break up a shutout wasn’t so surprising, but his throwing out six runners trying to steal was quite a shock for a catcher not exactly known for his defensive prowess. Baltimore wasted a fine outing from Dennis Martínez in a 2-1 loss to Chicago.

Bryce Harper hit 2 homeruns and he and Asdrúbal Cabrera each had 4 hits as Baltimore topped Chicago, 9-1.

#Cleveland Spiders

Ron Blomberg was recalled from his rehab assignment which leaves the Spiders in the envious position of having to find at bats for the shockingly good Willie McCovey, who was recalled when Blomberg went down. McCovey has a .952 SLG over a tiny 50 AB sample, but still. .952 SLG.

The Spiders recalled Joe Smith to take the place of the injured Terry Adams and then, as part of roster expansion, recalled Ps Claude Passeau, Willis Hudlin, and Sergio Romo and position players Bob Elliott, Kenny Lofton, and Paul O’Neil.

Johnny Bates went deep twice, but that was about all the Spiders could manage in a 13-4 loss to Memphis.

Evan Longoria and Lance Berkman each went deep twice and the Spiders bullpen held on for dear life as Cleveland topped Memphis, 11-10.

#Detroit Wolverines

Johnny Marcum and George Bechtel started rehab assignments. Logan Hensley was promoted from AA for the stretch run.

Juan Beníquez scored 4 times and hit his 17th homerun in a taut, 8-7 win over Baltimore. The victory went to Jack Wilson, who improved to 6-0 on the season.

#Memphis Red Sox

Skel Roach will miss about a month with an elbow issue, meaning his season is most likely over. Nixey Callahan was recalled.

Not a great day for the Red Sox: they fell 8-6 to Miami, and lost Dobie Moore for 2-3 weeks. They recalled Wayne Causey to help out at SS.

Ted Williams and David Ortiz went back-to-back twice as the Red Sox dominated Cleveland, 13-4 behind a decent effort from Len Barker, who evened his record at 10-10.

#New York Black Yankees

Pascual Pérez started a rehab assignment.

TWIWBL 63.2: Spotlight on the Detroit Wolverines

For the very first TWIWBL Spotlight, we’ll be looking at the Detroit Wolverines.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

Last year, the Wolverines won their division with the 2nd best record in baseball and lost to Baltimore in the Whirled Series in 7 games, so there are some expectations at play here.

So far, they’re underperforming, sitting 1 game under .500 at 16-17, 6.5 games behind the surging New York Black Yankees in the Bill James Division. At the most zoomed out, their pitching staff has been average, and while the offense has some significant bright spots, there are some issues to address.

THE OFFENSE

It’s a decent offense overall, with some power (but nobody in double figures in HR yet) and overall excellent OBP numbers (Detroit is 3rd in the league in walks). There is not much speed, outside of Ty Cobb, who has 13 steals.

#What’s Going Right

Ty Cobb. Remember, he’s still only 21 years old. And he’s slashing 398/462/858, leading the league in all 3 categories, and tied for the team league in HR with 9. 3B Bob Bailey also has 9 and has been the Wolverines’ 2nd best hitter amongst their starters.

Hank Greenberg and Al Kaline have been solid, if not spectacular, and Charlie Gehringer and Joe Wood have done better than expected in carrying large loads in the IF as rookies.

Professional hitter Juan Beníquez has professionally hit, slashing 395/511/526 in limited appearances as the club tries to open up more playing time for him. The challenge is that he plays the same positions as Cobb, Greenberg, and Bailey. But there are some ways to juggle the pieces to get his bat in the lineup a bit more often.

#What’s Not Going Right

The Wolverines are on the verge of abandoning their 3 catcher strategy. Ed Bailey and Ernie Lombardi are doing fine–not much more than that, but fine–but Bill Carrigan, who hit over .300 last year, is wallowing away with a .087/125/130 slash line. Mix that with the clear needs for more depth at either SS or CF or both, and Carrigan’s time with the big league club may be limited.

Tony Phillips may be showing his age, with the 39 year old–last year’s sparkplug–managing only a 168/267/287 slash line. Another key to last year’s team, Oscar Gamble, is doing only slightly better at 207/349/276. Gamble is still looking for his first homerun of the year, and while that OBP is nice, it’s not what the Wolverines really need from him.

THE PITCHING

#What’s Going Right

The bullpen has been excellent, with Mike Henneman producing saves at the same rate as last year, but this time being dominating as he’s done so, with an ERA and WHIP both under 1.00. Henneman has 9 saves, tied for the league lead, and both Chad Bradford and the surprising Billy Hoeft have been excellent getting to him.

Pete Conway has been a pleasant surprise since being called up, and there is talk of him moving into the rotation as, across 16 appearances, he’s arguably been the Wolverines’ best pitcher.

#What’s Not Going Right

The rotation is a hot mess. Nobody has more than 2 wins and only Charlie Root (2-3, 3.96) is really pitching well. Hal Newhouser has been OK, but Justin Verlander, Johnny Marcum, and especially Gene Conley have all struggled mightily. And it’s not an illusion: the more advanced stats (FIP, SIERA) tell the same story of Root being alright and the rest being pretty poor.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

There’s not a lot of immediate help at AAA on the mound. George Bechtel is off to a decent start, and is probably next in line to get a look.

Wally Moses, Brady Clark, Wes Covington, and Tony Lazzeri have all been looked at as options, depending on what happens with Phillips. And, veteran gloveman George Davis should be back from injury this month.

There’s not a lot here, honestly. Logan Hensley is the highest rated arm in the system, and he’s not great and teenage phenom Wander Franco is still a few years away, especially if Gehringer continues to develop.

WHAT’S NEEDED

The pitching to right itself and either Greenberg or Kaline to up their game, giving the team another top tier offensive threat to complement Cobb.

Storylines To Watch

Certainly Cobb and his assault on the triple crown. It’s doubtful he can maintain the SLG that is required, but if you hit .400, all things are possible.

Key Questions from Spring Training

In their Season Preview, there were 3 Key Questions for Detroit. Here’s an update on each.

  • Who is the 5th Starter? Unfortunately, with the current spate of injuries, this is now who are the 4th and 5th starters, and the answers seem to be Pete Conway and unknown, which is not a great answer.
  • Can they continue to carry 3 catchers? Not if Bill Carrigan continues to hit under .100.
  • The MI is a concern. Yeah, it is, but Billy Nash and Joe Wood have done well, although the team is looking forward to the return of George Davis’ glove later this month.

FEATURED SERIES

We’re looking at 3 game set at the end of the week against the Baltimore Black Sox where the Wolverines will welcome the (now struggling) defending champs to Tiger Stadium for a 3 game set.

Game One

Johnny Marcum left the game with a back injury in the 3rd inning, allowing only a single hit. The bullpen struggled, with Ray Sadecki, George Bechtel, Pete Conway, and Billy Hoeft giving up 7 runs in just over 5 innings.

Luckily, the Wolverines’ offense pounded out 17 hits and 12 runs, including 7 tallies in the bottom of the 7th en route to a 12-7 victory. Ty Cobb and Ernie Lombardi had 3 hits each and Charlie Gehringer 4 RBIs.

Chalk one up for the offense. This is sort of the peak of how Detroit can perform with the bat: a lot of hits spread up and down the lineup, a consistent ability to turn over multiple innings. It’s also an example of how fragile their staff is. Sadecki debuted well, but neither he nor Bechtel look likely to stick around, and Buddy Napier–expected to be key in late innings–only lowered his ERA to 7.00 with his scoreless inning at the end.

Marcum hit the DL after the game, with Conway likely to take his next start.

BAL 7 (Wetteland 0-5, 2 B Sv; Hampson 1 H) @ DET 12 (Hoeft 1-0)
HRs: BAL – Jacobson (1), Machado (9), Harper (5), Wallace (2); DET – Gehringer (6).
Box Score

Game Two

Justin Verlander turned in the best start of his career, allowing only 1 hit over 8 innings while striking out 11 and walking 3, but the victory went to Mike Henneman as a sacrifice fly from Charlie Gehringer in the bottom of the 9th gave the Wolverines a 1-0 win over Baltimore. Henneman showed flashes of his old self, walking 2 in the 9th before getting out of a jam of his own creation.

For the Black Sox, the game was worth more than the loss as Ned Garvin seemed to return to form with 6 shutout innings.

This game was needed after the bullpen was stretched thin yesterday. Most of all, though, Verlander has always showed this talent, but never really put it together. He still needs to show he can do it consistently (his ERA fell to 4.64 with his 8 shutout innings here, which is fine, but not great), but it’s a start.

BAL 0 (Olson 0-1) @ DET 1 (Henneman 3-0)
HRs: None.
Box Score

Game Three

The Wolverines went for the sweep with Charlie Root facing off against Baltimore’s Dennis Martínez. Neither ace was very good, with Detroit eventually building a 13-6 lead before the bullpen struggled to an eventual 13-10 win (and the series sweep).

Al Kaline had 3 hits and Hank Greenberg, Oscar Gamble, Tony Phillips, and both Ed and Bob Bailey went deep for Detroit who overcame 3 hits from Frank Robinson and 5 RBI’s from Dan McGann in the victory.

See the comments from the first game: another excellent day offensively, with contributions up and down the lineup and 5 SB’s to boot (from Joe Wood, Billy Nash, and Juan Beníquez, along with 2 from Ty Cobb). But Root’s problems continue, and George Bechtel had another bad outing, giving up a bases loaded triple to McGann and creating the save situation for Chad Bradford.

Still, a sweep is a sweep.

BAL 10 (Martínez 3-2) @ DET 13 (Wilson 1-0; Bradford 1 Sv)
HRs: BAL – McGann (4), Robinson (10), Cravath (11); DET – Gamble (3), Greenberg (10), Phillips (3), E. Bailey (3), B. Bailey (10).
Box Score

Season Review: Detroit Wolverines

89 - 65, .577 pct.
1st in Bill James Division, 3 games behind.
Lost to Baltimore in Whirled Series

Overall

Finishing runner up to the best team in the league made last year a success in Detroit, but it also leaves a bit of a sour taste: what did they need to get over that final hurdle, and how quickly is the window closing? That last is more of a concern for the Wolverines than most WBL teams with sparkplug Tony Phillips, C Ed Bailey, and SS George Davis all on the wrong side of 35.

On the other hand, none of their three top starters were in Detroit’s rotation at the start of the season (Hal Newhouser was at AAA, Gene Conley was in the bullpen, and Charlie Root was pitching for San Francisco), so a full season of them should help. And on the third hand, this is a team that did it with only two stars–Hank Greenberg and Ty Cobb–and, even if you add phenom Al Kaline to that group, could really use some additional high end offense.

What Went Right

Greenberg and Cobb, for sure. Both are young, Cobb won the batting title and hit for power with speed and Greenberg was on the fringes of the MVP discussion all season.

Kaline had an OPS nearing .950 over 34 games. So, that went very right, but is also not a proven commodity at this point.

Chili Davis, Oscar Gamble, and Bob Bailey all hit better than expected, combining for 68 homers and 242 RBI.

George Davis managed 2.7 WAR despite a .662 OPS–that’s how good he was with the glove at shortstop.

Tony Phillips was an ageless wonder, posting an OBP near .400 at the top of the lineup.

The catching trio–Ed Bailey, Bill Carrigan, and Ernie Lombardi–was effective, although as you would guess, finding enough at bats for them all was a challenge.

Once Newhouser, Conley, and Root settled in, this was as good a top 3 as there was last year. Conley led the trio–and the team–with 12 victories, but it was Newhouser who really provided consistent greatness on the mound for Detroit.

Mike Henneman tied for the league lead in saves with 38 and Chad Bradford and Buddy Napier were among the best in the business in bridging to the closer.

Hank Aguirre and Johnny Marcum were solid, especially once they moved to the back half of the rotation.

ALL STARS
3B Bob Bailey; 1B Hank Greenberg; RP Mike Henneman

What Went Wrong

Sparky Adams was never meant to be more than a utility infielder … but wow did he not hit well. It was only his defensive flexibility that kept him around over Robby Thompson–clearly a better option at 2B–and Jimmy Collins, who despite being great with the glove at 3B, barely hit more than Adams.

Tony Phillips was fragile, and it’s not clear, at 38, if he has any full seasons left in him.

Justin Verlander never really established himself despite a lot of opportunities. He wasn’t bad, for sure, as evidenced by his 10-4 record, but he wasn’t consistent and couldn’t hold a rotation spot.

Vernon “Whitey” Wilshere and Si Johnson were both downright bad as starters.

Transactions

March

1B Nate Colbert to Birmingham for P Ron Perranoski and 3B Billy Nash

Sure, whatever.

June

SS Donie Bush, 2B Jorge Orta, P Brandon League, OF Gene Martin & 2nd Round Pick to Indianapolis for C Ernie Lombardi

Unsure. Lombardi was OK for Detroit, and more will be asked of him, but that’s a lot to give up for a part-time catcher.

July

2B Charlie Gehringer, P Red Ehret, 3B Bill Sweeney & 4th Round Pick to San Francisco for P Charlie Root & P Chad Bradford

A clear win, even if Gehringer eventually finds his footing.

Looking Forward

SP

This should be solid, with an eventual combination of Hal Newhouser, Charlie Root, Gene Conley, Mickey Lolich, and Justin Verlander.

RP

It’s a strong trio now with Buddy Napier, Chad Bradford, and Mike Henneman, and Matt Anderson and Delin Betances offer some depth in the system.

C

Could be an area of need, but for now Bill Carrigan and Ernie Lombardi will see more of the time here, with the aging Ed Bailey being phased out.

1B

Hank Greenberg.

2B

Another area of need, unless Robby Thompson takes a major step forward.

3B

Bob Bailey looks good here, as did Olmedo Saénz in a brief audition.

SS

George Davis has this for now, but after that it’s not really clear: it’s possible Alfredo Griffin, Ray Chapman, or even Ed Brinkman develop; it’s possible they need to bring some more talent in.

LF

Oscar Gamble should have this for a while.

CF

Some mixture of Ty Cobb and Chili Davis, although each of them may be more suited to a corner OF spot. There is some talent behind them in Jody Gerut and Ron LeFlore.

RF

The Wolverines are banking a lot on Al Kaline‘s performance not being a mirage, although Geoff Jenkins will continue to push for more time as well.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

The first round pick is pretty easy: with Joe Torre taken, the C talent is pretty thin, add in the fact that Bill Freehan is a franchise choice, and Detroit has–it hopes–its backstop of the future.

Another franchise pick, Frank Lary, was picked up in the 3rd round.

Rounds 5-8

With all of their exceptions still available, the Wolverines can cherry pick–of mediocre talent, but still. They can use depth across the board: every position, plus arms, so it truly is a “best player available” moment.

It started with another franchise selection, P Billy Hoeft and was followed in the 6th round by C Johnny Romano who is so much better than the other remaining talent behind the plate his selection felt pretty mandatory. They picked up P Logan Hensley in the 7th and OF Bob Fothergill in the 8th.

Rounds 9-12

IF Wander Franco (final exemption); OF Riley Greene; OF Kerry Carpenter; C Derek Norris.

10th round pick Riley Greene refused Detroit’s offer.

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