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Series XIII Preview: Memphis Red Sox @ Houston Colt 45’s

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On August 29, 2021

In Series Previews

We haven’t touched on these two clubs since the very start of the season, when Houston visited Homestead in Series I and Memphis hosted Birmingham in Series III.

#Memphis Red Sox

Memphis is struggling. They come into series XII 10 games below .500 at 20-30, but only 6 games out in the Bill James Division.

They have really had issues across the board, with some recent hiccups in the bullpen calling what had been a strength all season into question.

There are some bright spots: Ted Williams is a likely all-star, slashing 291/381/542 and Reggie Smith has been on a tear, bringing his line up to 307/368/513. Those two, along with Mookie Betts and Bill White have been quite dependable all season.

The biggest concern offensively is probably Wade Boggs, who has been removed from the 2-spot in the lineup given his 244/362/327 slash line. Still, the OBP is solid and the Memphis faithful are convinced he’ll bounce back. The bigger question is how the sextet of recently promoted players, especially infielders Claude Ritchey and Wayne Causey, will perform at the WBL level.

On the mound Jon Lester leads the staff in wins at 5-3 with a quite solid 3.91 ERA. Roger Clemens, who has shown real flashes of brilliance, has little to show for it, at 0-4 with a 5.56 ERA to date. The other starters–Dean Chance, Tim Wakefield and Nixey Callahan–have been perfectly fine, but little more.

Joe Beggs has 7 saves and is yet to allow a run over 13 innings, and Jonathan Papelbon has been fantastic setting him up. Getting to Papelbon via Turk Farrell and Heath Bell has been bumpy at times, but overall the bullpen has been solid for the Red Sox.

So, it’s a team in need of better starting pitching and hoping the changes they have made offensively might all click.

#Houston Colt 45’s

Houston is who they are: currently 25-25 and 7 games back in the Cum Posey Division. They’re a solid team across the board, lacking power and suffering a bit in their bullpen, but just … solid. Which is almost a compliment.

Jim Wynn, Jeff Bagwell, and HR Johnson have been their best players offensively. Wynn, slashing 293/402/467, leads the team in OBP and SLG, and Johnson at .324 in BA. Wynn and Johnson have combined to steal 33 bases in 42 attempts, making the top of their lineup dangerous on the basepaths. Bagwell has 7 homeruns to lead the Colt 45’s and his 27 RBIs trail George Brett by 1.

The most obvious need is for one or more of Tony Gwynn, Craig Biggio, or Carlos Correa to break out of OPS’ hovering roughly around .700.

The starting pitching has been anchored, as expected, by Roy Oswalt at 5-2, 4.21. But the contributions of Toad Ramsey and Stubby Overmire have been totally unexpected, and if Bret Saberhagen‘s recent starts are indicative of him getting back on track, the rotation could be significantly better than average.

In the bullpen, Brad Lidge leads with 6 saves, but his 9.35 ERA has moved him out of the closer role, which now falls to Billy Wagner, who has impressed with a team low 2.38 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. It’s not clear how much longer the team will stick with Leon Day, Dock Ellis, or Bones Ely at the deep end of the bullpen.

#Series Matchups

Memphis’ starter listed first. Nixey Callahan (3-5, 4.91) @ Stubby Overmire (0-2, 3.58); Tim Wakefield (2-3, 4.33) @ Stephen Strasburg (2-3, 3.81); Roger Clemens (0-4, 5.56) @ Bret Saberhagen (3-3, 5.29); Jon Lester (5-3, 3.91) @ Roy Oswalt (5-2, 4.21).

It’s hard to argue that Memphis has the edge in any of the matchups: maybe, if Clemens puts together all the parts of his best starts and maybe Lester over Oswalt.

TWIWBL 11.1: Series IX Notes – Bill James Division

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On July 11, 2021

In TWIWBL

#Detroit Wolverines

Hank Aguirre had pitched well all season, but had only a 1-3 record to show for it. Here, he combined with Mike Henneman on a 3-hit shutout of Houston, figuring the only way to win was to ensure the opposition didn’t score. Hank Greenberg was 1-for-3 with 2 RBIs in the 3-0 victory.

Si Johnson lasted less than 2 innings before leaving his start injured, but it was long enough to give up 5 runs and take the loss in a game the Wolverines dropped to Houston, 6-3. Johnson was put on the 10 day DL after the game, with Mickey Lolich called up to Detroit to take his place and Johnny Marcum taking Johnson’s place in the rotation.

Tom Brookens‘ stay in Detroit was short, but going hitless in 15 ABs will do that. The 33-year old veteran was out of options, so the Wolverines waived him, freeing up a spot on their 40-man roster as well. 1B Greg Brock was recalled, adding some power to their bench.

#Los Angeles Angels

Armando Benitez made 4 appearances for the Angels, none of them good. He’ll be given another 12 games to see if there’s anything worth salvaging–having made it clear he’s unwilling to go to the minors, the Angels will then be faced with the choice of releasing or trading Benitez.

#Memphis Red Sox

Where did that come from? Nothing Eddie Cicotte had done yet indicated ha had this in him: 7.1 innings of shutout, 6-hit ball against Chicago, easily the hottest offense in the league. Mookie Betts, Ted Williams, Vern Stephens, and Bill White all went deep as the Red Sox eased to a 10-0 win. Williams was 3-for-4 with 3 runs and Betts was 3-for-4 with 4 RBIs.

Pete Runnels was moved to AAA, with Claude Richey being recalled. 1B George Scott would have joined Runnels, but refused the demotion, potentially signaling the end of Boomer’s time with the Red Sox.

#New York Gothams

Despite walking 3 in the top of the 9th, Sad Sam Jones tossed a complete game, 4-hit shutout against the mighty Black Yankees. Jones moved to 2-3 on the year, with the key hit being a 2-run homerun by Eugenio Suarez. Willie Mays added 3 hits for the Gothams.

Al Mays‘ recent struggle cost him his rotation spot, with Gaylord Perry taking his place.

#Wandering House of David

C.C. Sabathia spun a 5-hit shutout against Brooklyn to raise his record to 5-2. The Royal Giants’ Don Drysedale–who gave up a grand slam to Ernie Banks in the first inning before delivering a very Drysedalesque performance–lost his first game of the year. Banks, George Stone, Pete Browning, and Mark McGwire each had 2 hits for the House of David.

Gabby Hartnett and Frank Grant were both sent to AAA (sub .500 OPS will do that), with Frank Chance being promoted to serve as Elrod Hendricks‘ backup at catcher. The House of David reached down to AA for Grant’s replacement, recalling Bunny Downs, who had been hitting 360/436/472 for Albuquerque.

TWIWBL 6.1: Series V Notes – Bill James Division

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On May 23, 2021

In TWIWBL

#Detroit Wolverines

Bob Bailey hit 2 HRs and drove in 5 to lead the Wolverines to a 7-2 victory over Chicago. The win went to Johnny Marcum, who threw 4 hitless innings in relief of Hank Aguirre. Marcum moved to 2-1 on the season.

Hal Newhouser began his road back to Detroit with a rehab assignment at AAA.

#Memphis Red Sox

Trailing 6-2 after four innings, the Red Sox looked unlikely to end their 8 game losing streak. But, behind two HRs and 5 RBIs from Manny Ramirez and 4 hits from Mookie Betts, Memphis came back against Ottawa, scoring 9 unanswered runs en route to an 11-6 victory.

Ted Williams kept the streak going, leading off the bottom of the 15th inning with a HR to RF off Monk Dubiel, giving Memphis a 6-5 win likely to decimate both bullpens for a while.

The Red Sox will need more bullpen help before their next series, though, as the 15 inning game was followed by an even longer one as they were pushed to 18 innings in the season finale against Ottawa. Heath Bell, Eddie Cicotte, and Tim Wakefield combined for 9.1 scoreless innings, with Wakefield being particularly impressive. But Turk Farrell gave up 2 runs, and Memphis dropped the marathon game, 5-4.

Afterwards, Sadie McMahon and Cicotte were sent to AAA, with Mel Parnell and Joe Borowski joining the major league club.

TWIWBL 4.0: Series III – Birmingham Black Barons @ Memphis Red Sox

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On September 29, 2020

In TWIWBL

Between them, Birmingham and Memphis had only managed 4 wins on the young season. Something had to give as they faced off for 5 games.

Behind a good start from Roger Clemens, Memphis carried a 5-2 lead into the 7th inning, but then it fell apart as the Black Barons put a crooked number on the scoreboard: Eddie Mathews led it off with a solo HR, and after 3 walks from Clemens, Billy Southworth sent a pitch deep into the night for a grand slam. Mookie Betts and George Scott hit HRs in the bottom of the 9th, but it wasn’t enough, and Birmingham held on for the 8-7 victory.

Dean Chance won game 2 for Memphis to tie the series at 1 game each, throwing 6.2 IP without allowing an earned run (Birmingham scored 3 times, helped by an error by Memphis SS Vern Stephens). Tim Wakefield and Jon Papelbon completed the game without allowing a hit. The final score was 4-3, with Chance moving to 2-0 on the year.

Game 3 was another 1 run affair, this one going to Birmingham by a score of 3-2. Alejandro Pena got his first win of the year, moving to 1-2 and hanging a tough loss on Memphis’ Nixey Callahan, who pitched well enough to win. Mathews’ 2nd HR of the series–a solo shot in the top of the 7th inning–proved the decider.

Birmingham’s Scott Baker allowed only 4 hits in 7 IP, and the Black Barons’ bats woke up in the 4th game of the series as they eased to a 9-2 win. Frank Isbell went 3-for-5 with 2 RBI’s and Chipper Jones and Hank Aaron went deep as both Sadie McMahon and Wakefield got hit hard, giving Birmingham a 3-1 edge in the series.

Warren Spahn came into the 5th and final game of the series with an ERA over 20. After allowing no runs over 7 inning of 5 hit ball, it had been cut nearly in half: still an embarrassing double-digit number, but a good sign for Birmingham fans. Memphis’ Jon Lester was nearly as good, allowing only 1 run in his 7 innings, but it was all the Black Barons needed, as Spahn was followed by Juan Rincon and Carlos Diaz in near-perfect relief. Birmingham won the game 1-0, taking 4 of 5 games in the series as well.

There wasn’t a ton of offense in the series: in fact, only 2 players really performed well at the plate across the 5 games. For Birmingham, Isbell was on fire, going 8-for-19 with 4 RBIs in his 4 games. Betts had 5 hits for Memphis, including 2 HRs, making an argument for additional playing time.

The result leaves both teams at 4-10, tied for the worst record in the league.

Season Preview: Memphis Red Sox

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On August 23, 2020

In Team News

Memphis, like many teams, will go as far as their SP can carry them. There is great potential here, especially with 23 year old Roger Clemens at the back of the rotation. But all of their starters are under 25, and its not clear that Sadie McMahon, David Bush, or Nixey Callahan are really cut out for the WBL. The offense features 20 year old emerging star Ted Williams along with a host of talent in the OF. The key may be if Reggie Smith can produce enough to be respectable in CF, and if Dustin Pedroia and Vern Stephens can become a reliable combination in the middle infield.

Final Roster

SP: Sadie McMahon, David Bush, Jon Lester, Nixey Callahan, Roger Clemens.
RP: Dean Chance; Turk Farrell & Heath Bell; Jonathan Papelbon & Derek Lowe; Joe Beggs.

C: Bob Brenly; Jim Pagliaroni
1B: Bill White & George Scott
2B: Dustin Pedroia; Pete Runnels
3B: Wade Boggs
SS: Vern Stephens; Nomar Garciaparra
LF: Eddie Rosario
CF: Reggie Smith
RF: Ted Williams; Mookie Betts
DH: Manny Ramirez

Notes

The biggest news from the final week of Spring Training is a devastating injury to closer Eddie Watt that will cause him to miss the entire season. Joe Beggs slides into the closer role, with Jonathan Papelbon and Derek Lowe setting him up … the battle of young OFs between Manny Ramirez (24), Tony Conigliaro (21) and Mookie Betts (22) ended with Ramirez out-hitting the other 2 and Betts’ defensive versatility preserving his position and sending Conigliaro to AAA … the final cut is risky for Memphis, as the struggling Eddie Cicotte was sent down, leaving them with only 11 arms on the pitching staff … Boomer Scott and Bill White form a platoon at 1B, and essentially Eddie Rosario and Betts are platooning, although they are rotating with Ted Williams and Ramirez in LF, RF, and DH … Look for the Red Sox to find lots of ways to get Pete Runnels into the lineup v RHP and Nomar Garciaparra against LHP.

At 35, Nomar Garciaparra is the veteran of the roster, while 20 year old Ted Williams is the youngest of the Red Sox.

The scouts still hold high hopes for 20 year old RP Luiz Gohara, who flamed out during the Spring. 2B Claude Richey is also at AAA if reinforcements are needed. 17 year old OF Willie Crawford and 20 year old 2B Ozzie Albies are the most heralded prospects at AA.

Getting to 30: Bill James Division

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On August 6, 2020

In 2000 Spring Training, Team News

#Detroit Wolverines

The starting rotation looks set, with Justin Verlander and Jason Schmidt both being relegated to the bullpen for the time being. John Hiller was brought into camp to add a left hander to the bullpen, as Hal Newhouser, Whitey Wilshere, and Hank Aguirre all made the rotation. If Hiller sticks around, it will be most likely at the expense of Kevin Hart.

Promising youngsters Al Kaline and Charlie Gehringer failed to hold on to a spot in camp. Jorge Orta raised some eyebrows with his performance, but not enough to force his way into a crowded infield. The final cut at this point was Wes Covington, who was displaced from the roster by a fantastic showing from Tony Phillips.

20 year old Ty Cobb will need to impress to make the final 25, and the Wolverines would like to sort out the competition between Ray Chapman and George Davis at SS.

#Los Angeles Angels

Only two of Mike Smith, Chuck Finley, and Nolan Ryan should make the opening day roster. Similarly, the Angels will most likely break camp with only two arms in middle relief, meaning Darren Holmes and Jeurys Familia are battling for the final bullpen slot.

Andrelton Simmons beat out Kevin Elster as the reserve SS.

The other choices to get down to 30 are far more difficult. It was assumed Tim Wallach‘s power and High Pockets Kelly‘s versatility would earn them a roster spot, instead they are off to AAA, with both Mark Ellis and Doug Rader perhaps surprising many to still be in big league camp.

It has left them with fairly weak defense at 3B.

The organization is pretty thin at C, and is scouring for some depth.

#Memphis Red Sox

Luiz Gohara‘s implosion continued, and landed him in AAA. There are still a few spots up for grabs on the pitching staff, with Dean Chance and Eddie Cicotte fighting for the final long relief slot. Roger Clemens slipped into the #5 starting spot, settling the rotation, at least for now.

Closer Eddie Watt‘s injury is yet to be diagnosed, and could throw the bullpen into disarray, although both Jonathan Papelbon and Joe Beggs look capable of stepping into the role.

Truly poor performances from Claude Ritchey, Francisco Lindor, David Justice, and Dwight Evans made some decisions easy; a glut of players at 3B sent Bill Melton packing. But the final decisions were more difficult, with the failure of either Reggie Smith or Joe Kelley showing enough to claim the CF spot leading to an essential coin-flip that saw Smith stick with the big league team.

Bill White and George Scott will platoon at 1B. There is a battle in the OF between Mookie Betts and Tony Conigliaro for a final roster spot, with Betts holding the edge at this point.

#New York Gothams

Carl Hubbell‘s return from injury should setup a competition with Al Spalding for the final place in the starting rotation. Both should make the roster in what looks like a very deep pitching staff.

There are probably only 2 roster slots available for Buck O’Brien, Gaylord Perry, and Marcel Lachemann. The challenge is that all of them are pitching quite well. Matt Thornton and Aaron Loup pitched decently, but are headed to AAA. This leaves New York without a lefthanded arm on the staff aside from Hubbell, which may be an argument for him to land in the bullpen.

Bill Terry lost the battle at 1B and was sent to AAA.

The Gothams struggle from a real lack of defensive versatility, which constrains many of their roster decisions. If Benny Kauff, Art Devlin, or Brandon Crawford could play a 2nd position, they would probably still be on the roster.

#Wandering House of David

The initial cuts from the pitching staff were obvious, as 15 year old Joe Nuxhall‘s first exposure to big league camp was a disaster, and neither Kerry Wood nor Jeff Heathcock showed enough to stick around.

Tom Niedenfuer is the closer, but both Joakim Soria and especially Bruce Sutter have shown enough to handle that role as well. Veteran Dick Tidrow is getting a longer look than expected for the bullpen, and Arnold Carter may stick around as the only lefty in the pen, especially with the struggling Hector Rondon heading to AAA.

19 year old Cap Anson never found anything resembling a stride in Spring Training, and will be heading to AAA, along with Patsy Dougherty and Dave Altizer. All 3 of those had expectations of roles at the WBL level; they’ve been supplanted by Mark Grace and Anthony Rizzo at 1B, George Stone at LF, and George Gore and Jerry Mumphrey in CF.

Elrod Hendricks has seized a platoon role at C, with Frank Chance and Gabby Hartnett still fighting for their lives. They could keep both, but that would likely mean 1 of the pair of talented 20 year olds of Dick Lundy and Frank Grant would start the season at AAA.

Spring Training Preview: Memphis

By

On June 21, 2020

In 2000 Spring Training, Team News

  • The back of the rotation is pretty open, with 2 spots up for grabs and a competition between Len Barker, Dean Chance, and Jon Lester.
    • With Barker out for quite some time, and with literally no SP performing even adequately, this is wide open. Look for David Bush to be considered as well.
      • Bush and McMahon are the only SPs showing much promise. Assuming they make it, the other 3 slots are between Chance, Nixey Callahan, Eddie Cicotte, Roger Clemens, and Lester (all of whom have had highly mediocre Springs). The shock here is Clemens, who came in as the presumed #1 starter. Tim Wakefield has been sent back to AAA.
  • Luiz Gohara looks to be the closer, with Heath Bell and Derek Lowe behind him. It’s not clear beyond that, with Joe Beggs, Jonathan Papelbon, and Eddie Watt all in the running.
    • Gohara has lost the inside track on the closer job, with Papelbon and Watt now competing for it.
      • Watt–yet to allow an earned run–will close for now, with Papelbon and Beggs setting things up for him.
      • Ellis Kinder has been called up for some bullpen depth.
  • None of the IF jobs are up for grabs, although it’s not clear if Dustin Pedroia or Pete Runnels will backup Claude Richey at 2B, and Vern Stephens, Wayne Causey, and Nomar Garciaparra are all trying to make case to be Francisco Lindor‘s backup at SS.
    • 2B got more interesting, as Ritchey is mired in a horrible slump while Pedroia is hitting .500. Lindor is playing fine, but Causey, Stepehns, and Garciaparra are all playing better at this point. Something has to give here, with 3B Bill Melton the odd man out right now.
      • Pedroia has earned the starting nod right now, but none of the 2B are performing terribly.
      • Bill White would be the starter at 1B right now, with George Scott struggling to stay on the roster, given the other players who could fill in at 1B.
      • The SS situation hasn’t really changed. Stephens is doing best right now, and Lindor has to improve quite a bit to make the roster at all.
  • There may be 2 roster spots open for David Justice, Eddie Rosario, Joe Kelley, Fred Lynn, Dwight Evans, and Manny Ramirez to compete over.
    • Kelly, Ramirez, Mookie Betts, and Lynn are playing themsleves out of consideration while Tony Conigliaro and Rosario are moving up the chart.
      • The OF is pretty dire. Conigliaro and Rosario are hitting best. The assumption is that Ted Williams will come around, but aside from that it’s wide open. Right now, Lynn has been sent to AAA, and Justice is in danger of missing the roster cut for sure.
  • Jim Pagliaroni is hitting well enough to lay claim to the starting C job, with Bob Brenly‘s defense giving him the edge over Billy Bryan as the reserve.
Near DefiniteLikelyPossibleLong Shot
Starting PitchersSadie McMahonDavid BushLen Barker
Nixey Callahan
Roger Clemens
Dean Chance
Jon Lester
Eddie Ciccotte
Middle RelieversHeath Bell
Derek Lowe
Luiz Gohara
Turk Farrell		Ellis Kinder
SetupJonathan Papelbon
Joe Beggs
CloserEddie Watt
CJim Pagliaroni
Bob Brenly
Billy Bryan
1BBill WhiteGeorge Scott
2BDustin Pedroia
Pete Runnels		Claude Richey
3BWade BoggsBill Melton
SSVern StephensWayne Causey
Francisco Lindor
Nomar Garciaparra
OFTed WilliamsEddie Rosario
Tony Conigliaro		Reggie Smith
David Justice
Dwight Evans
Mookie Betts
Joe Kelley
Manny Ramirez

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