Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Waite Hoyt Page 1 of 5

TWIWBL 101.4: Year 3, Week 4 – Cum Posey Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Chicago American Giants16-9.640—
Los Angeles Angels14-12.5382.5
Portland Sea Dogs14-12.5382.5
San Francisco Sea Lions14-12.5382.5
Miami Cuban Giants11-15.4235.5
Cum Posey Division | 29 April

Chicago American Giants

Jake Stenzel has started a rehab assignment. It was thought that Stenzel could have a crucial role to play for Chicago– Cristóbal Torriente‘s torrid start makes that seem less likely.

Wilbur Wood was sent to AAA, making room for Raisel Iglesias in a middle relief role.

Waite Hoyt carried a 1-hitter into the 9th at Birmingham and finished with a 2-0 combined 3-hitter. The game was scoreless through 8 — Chicago scored both runs in the top of the 9th — and Hoyt went back out and gave up 2 singles before A. J. Minter got the last out. Hoyt struck out 12 for a game score of 89, and is 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA: everything the American Giants could have hoped for in his arrival from the Black Yankees late last season.

Los Angeles Angels

Dwight Evans is on the disabled list, which leaves Los Angeles with no cover in CF, prompting the choice of Brian Giles being recalled as the fourth outfielder during Evans’ absence.

Carlos Delgado hit 2 homeruns and drove in 4 in a 6-3 win over Portland.

Miami Cuban Giants

José Méndez went the distance in a 4-1 win at Indianapolis, allowing 4 hits and no walks with 9 strikeouts for a game score of 84. Méndez is 2-2 with a 2.48 ERA–so he’s doing his job out there, but not getting a ton of support.

Robin Yount doubled 3 times in a 4-2 win at Cleveland on Sunday, giving him 11 on the season.

Julio Rodríguez has begun a rehab assignment, the first firm sign of a return date for the budding star CF.

Phenomenal Smith has been … well, less than that. Miami has moved Smith to the pen, with Cole Hamels sliding into the back of the rotation.

San Francisco Sea Lions

Watty Clark and Joe Nathan combined on a 3-hit shutout of the House of David, with San Francisco winning 2-0. Clark went 7.2 innings with 8 strikeouts and Nathan retired the last 4 for his 1st save.

TWIWBL 101.1: Year 3, Week 4 – Easing Into the Season

29 April, 2002

#Awards

Al Kaline is the AL Player of the Week for Detroit, on a .400 week with 6 doubles, 2 homeruns and 10 RBI — powered by a 3-double game followed by a 2-homer, 5-RBI day. He is hitting .326 with 7 homeruns.

The NL Player of the Week is the New York Gothams‘ HR Johnson, who hit .400 with 4 homeruns and 9 RBI over 6 games, slugging .960. Johnson is fast becoming a fan favorite for the Gothams, for obvious reasons, but also for confirmation that perhaps they pulled a fast one on the Black Yankees in the offseason with his acquistion.

In the minors: Josh Harrison (New York Black Yankees) took the award at AAA Newark on a 14-for-28 week, and continues to make an argument for a longer trial at the WBL level; Steve Henderson (Los Angeles) took the AA Player of the Week, and Bob Cerv (Houston) won it at A-ball.

#Three Games

{A new section: when I can’t think of better topic for the front page, we’ll highlight 3 games of note from the week that was.}

Cleveland @ Ottawa, 24 April

Two pitchers with lightning in their arms and massive question marks on their futures faced off in Ottawa, with Cleveland’s Bob Feller taking the mound against the Mounties’ Big Question Mark, Randy Johnson. Both did well, allowing only a single run each. Feller’s day was better, with 11 strikeouts in over 6 innings, while Johnson did his usual thing, walking as many as he whiffed (5 of each).

Neither were around for the exciting parts of the game.

First, in the top of the 7th, RBI’s by Tris Speaker and Larry Doby gave Cleveland a 3-1 lead. Then, the Spiders turned the game over to Aroldis Chapman–their key offseason acquisition, who has been even more important with closer Terry Adams hurt for about a week. Chapman has been … awful. Which continued here.

First, he hit Gary Carter, then gave up singles to Álex Rodríguez and Adrián Beltré, loading the bases. And then Ottawa’s manager got creative, first sending pitcher Bill Smith in to pinch run for Beltré and then sending Old Hoss Radbourn, another pitcher, up to hit for the struggling John Olerud. While the fans were scratching their heads–Olerud is obviously better at the plate than Radbourn–Radbourn simply delivered, driving in 2 with a sharply hit single to left.

Chapman got to 2 outs, but no further, as a single from Roberto Alomar plated Radbourn with the winning run.

CLE 3 (Chapman 0-2, 3 BSv) @ OTT 4 (Holland 2-0)
HRs: none.
Box Score

Chicago @ San Francisco, 28 April

After a rough start, San Francisco has begun to right the ship while Chicago has been surprisingly good in the early going. This game felt like the Sea Lions continuing to reassert their dominance … until ….

Hits from Reggie Jackson and Jack Clark were the big blows, each driving in 2, and San Francisco led 5-0 behind easily the best start of the year so far from Tom Brewer. With the strength of the Sea Lions’ bullpen a well known commodity, some fans had even begun to eye the exits.

And then came the 8th.

Charlie Ferguson allowed a single to Jack Doyle before being relieved by Ken Howell. Howell got two outs–strikeouts of Chino Smith and Mickey Vernon–but allowed 2 singles and 2 doubles before giving way to Trevor Hoffman. Cristóbal Torriente doubled in 2, Kevin Mitchell and Travis Jackson had RBIs, and Eddie Collins greeted Hoffman with a double of his own and suddenly the American Giants were, somehow, ahead, 6-5.

They didn’t need it, but Chicago wasn’t done: Smith hit a 2 run shot in the 9th and Jackson drove in 2 more with a double. With Alex Reyes shutting down San Francisco in the 8th and 9th, that was it and the American Giants emerged with a 10-5 victory.

Allen, Collins, and Jackson each had 3 hits for Chicago on the day.

CAG 10 (Reyes 1-0) @ SFS 5 (Howell 1-1; Hoffman 1 BSv)
HRs: CAG – C. Smith (9); SFS – none.
Box Score

Birmingham @ the House of David, 28 April

It was the last game of the week. We were all just tired.

So nobody thought much about it when Paul Konerko blasted a solo shot off Bob Shaw to tie the game 5-5 in the top of the 8th. Given how well the offenses performed earlier, it seemed obvious that more runs were coming (Birmingham’s John Malarkey had surrendered 11 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings, including a 3 run shot by Ernie Banks; Jack Taylor was barely better for the House of David, giving up 4 runs in his 5 innings of work).

But the bullpens decided to change the script. For Birmingham, Al Javery, Akinori Otsuka, Harley Young, and Kerry Ligtenberg combined to allow 3 hits and zero runs over 9 innings of work, while for the home team, Scott Downs, Ed Bauta, Dellin Betances, Fergie Jenkins, and Karl Spooner gave up more hits (6), but were equally effective over 8 combined frames.

So, what happened?

Birmingham turned to Slim Embrey in the bottom of the 16th. And Embrey can’t really be blamed for what happened: he retired Ryne Sandberg, then saw Pete Browning and Ernie Banks reach on errors before Ron Santo singled to load the bases. Embrey then grooved one to Anthony Rizzo, who deposited in the seats for a walkoff grandslam homerun.

Cap Anson, Sandberg, and Santo had 3 hits each for the House of David, and Bobby Grich and Melky Cabrera had 3 for the Black Barons.

BBB 5 (Embrey 0-1) @ HOD 9 (Spooner 2-0; Shaw 1 BSv)
HRs: BBB – Konerko (5); HOD – Banks (6), Rizzo (4).
Box Score

#Player Performance

Four weeks in, the lists are starting to hold their shape. Qualifying is 3.1 plate appearances or 1 inning per team game — about 80 PA and 26 innings.

#Batters

The Ted Williams problem has not gone away. He leads the WBL in batting average, on-base, slugging, runs, RBI, walks and WAR outright, and shares the homerun lead with Indianapolis’ Oscar Charleston at 12. Williams is hitting .434 with a .952 slugging percentage.

As usual, top 2-3 in most all stats below.

Cool Papa Bell (KAN). .203/.292/.291. 8 SB.
John Briggs (MEM). .247/.306/.438. 12 2B.
Pete Browning (HOD). .337/.393/.525. 9 SB.
Rico Carty (PHI). .375/.446/.694.
Oscar Charleston (IND). .304/.345/.676. 12 HR, 29 RBI, 1.8 WAR.
Ty Cobb (DET). .348/.402/.685. 1.5 WAR.
Lou Gehrig (NYY). .311/.398/.711. 24 RBI.
Hank Greenberg (DET). .241/.327/.448. 3 3B.
HR Johnson (NYG). .372/.400/.691. 12 2B.
Willie Mays (NYG). .283/.343/.641. 21 R.
Joe Morgan (IND). .230/.396/.297. 20 BB.
Jackie Robinson (BRK). .323/.368/.515. 13 2B.
Bullet Joe Rogan (PHI). .344/.385/.885. 9 HR.
Babe Ruth (NYY). .228/.384/.608. 9 HR, 19 BB.
Chino Smith (CAG). .277/.307/.699. 9 HR, 22 R.
Turkey Stearnes (SFS). .259/.300/.635. 9 HR.
Roy White (BRK). .303/.402/.487.
Ted Williams (MEM). .434/.542/.952. 12 HR, 28 R, 32 RBI, 22 BB, 2.4 WAR.

At the other end, Los Angeles’s Dobie Moore has now struck out 55 times, 9 clear of anyone else. Moore has shown some signs of life lately, but it’s a deep hole to crawl out of.

#Pitchers

Christy Mathewson of the New York Gothams is the league’s only 5-game winner, sitting at 5-0.

#Starters

Steve Carlton (PHI). 4-1, 1.89.
Whitey Ford (NYY). 3-2, 2.25. .195 BABIP.
Dwight Gooden (LAA). 2-2, 4.41. 1.90 FIP, 1.5 WAR.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 3-1, 3.63. 54 K.
Waite Hoyt (CAG). 4-1, 2.45.
Walter Johnson (POR). 3-1, 2.37. 45 K, 0.82 WHIP, 1.74 FIP, 1.3 WAR.
Dennis Martínez (BAL). 3-1, 3.45. .178 BABIP.
Christy Mathewson (NYG). 5-0, 2.50. 48 K.
Charles Radbourn (OTT). 2-0, 1.38.
Toad Ramsey (HOU). 2-3, 3.28. 1.4 WAR.
Tom Seaver (MEM). 1-1, 1.95.
Smokey Joe Wood (KAN). 2-0, 2.78. 0.77 WHIP.

#Relievers

One more week until we actually have some decent insight into the relievers–for now, here are the 4 closers tied atop the league with 6 saves each.

Rod Beck (SFS). 1-1, 3.00. 6 Sv.
Jack Billingham (POR). 0-1, 4.00. 6 Sv.
Jonathan Papelbon (MCG). 0-0, 3.00. 6 Sv.
Brian Wilson (NYG). 0-1, 2.35. 6 Sv.

#Hardest Shots

Josh Gibson owned the week: a 124 mph solo homerun off Indianapolis‘s Luis Padrón on Saturday was the hardest ball struck by anyone, and he also had a 120 mph double and a 119 mph homerun. Gibson’s overall stats aren’t showing it yet, but the thunder in the bat is clearly still there.

The hardest out was Ted Williams‘s — a 122 mph fly ball to right.

#Injuries

The big one is Bullet Joe Rogan, out about 2 weeks — Philadelphia loses a rotation turn and a bat with 9 homeruns in one move, and he is the fourth Stars pitcher on the disabled list in 10 days. The Gothams lose Dave Righetti for about the same stretch.

Memphis swingman Len Barker and Los Angeles OF Dwight Evans both hit the DL this week as well.

TWIWBL 99.3: Year 3, Week 2 – Cum Posey Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Chicago American Giants7-6.538—
Los Angeles Angels7-6.538—
Miami Cuban Giants7-6.538—
Portland Sea Dogs7-6.538—
San Francisco Sea Lions7-6.538—
Cum Posey Division | 15 April

Chicago American Giants

Mark Buehrle threw a 1-hitter! But … rain ended the game after 6 innings. So, yay him, but not quite the usual celebration. Travis Jackson carried the offense with 2 homeruns.

The American Giants got a combined shutout, also weather shortened, as Waite Hoyt, Wilbur Wood, and Will Smith held Los Angeles to 5 hits in just under 8 innings, with Chicago winning 2-0.

Miami Cuban Giants

Some meh news from the medical staff: there is still no clear date for Julio Rodríguez‘ return from injury.

Jim Whitney, still really trying to find his groove, whiffed 10 in a no decision against San Francisco.

San Francisco Sea Lions

Bump Hadley and Charlie Ferguson split each side of a rain delay, combining on a 3 hit, 11-0 romp over Miami. Ferguson’s 4 hitless innings gave him that odd statistical achievement of a save in a blowout.

Portland Sea Dogs

Walter Johnson (2-0) delivered one of the finest starts of the year in a 2-1 victory over Detroit. Johnson whiffed 13 in 8 innings, allowing only 4 hits and 1 run (a solo shot to Ty Cobb), for a game score of 83 on the day. The Big Train DHs when he pitches (and is hitting .385 with a dinger), and he was key here, doubling in the 8th with 1 out to move the winning run to 3rd.

TWIWBL 99.1: Year 3, Week 2 — The Rains of April

15 April, 2002

Awards

WBL Players of the Week

Manny Ramírez takes the American League award for Memphis, Oscar Charleston the National League for Indianapolis. Charleston’s case was essentially made in a single afternoon, as he launched 3 homeruns in a 19-5 win over the New York Gothams. Those were 3 of the his 4 homeruns on the week, during which he hit .385 with 11 RBIs.

Ramírez didn’t show Charleston’s power, but he did hit .524 for the week.

MiL Players of the Week

The Minor League seasons have begun!

So they have their own Player of the Week awards: Roger Maris (New York Black Yankees) took AAA at Newark, Mike Benjamin (Birmingham Black Barons) at AA, and Bill Hallman (Homestead Grays) at A-ball. Of those, only Maris seems to be knocking on the WBL door, but he’s likely shutout unless injury hits the Black Yankees.

Behind the Curtain

I wanted to highlight some things that I’ve been doing in the OOTP engine itself, mostly as information that might be useful for other folks running their own leagues.

In the offseason, I updated the ballparks to actual precipitation rates.

Turns out that’s not great. Here’s why:

Precipitation in OOTP really impacts the game; as such, the question is not how much did it rain, the question is how often did enough rain fall that it impacted play?

The higher precipitation rates–in effect for the first two weeks of the season–were highly, highly impactful. Just under half the games saw rain, just under 10% of the games were postponed, and, in something new to OOTP 27, it seems like rain now pushes error rates up in a noticeable way.

Note that I like rain delays and rainouts–I like anything that stresses roster construction, things that force teams to make roster moves, etc. But this was ridiculous.

A quick sample of impacted games:

  • Chicago threw shutouts on consecutive days and neither was 9 innings. The 4/13 win over Los Angeles was called in the 8th for bad weather (Waite Hoyt, 6 innings, 8 strikeouts); Mark Buehrle‘s 1-hitter the next afternoon was called in the 6th.
  • Ottawa‘s Roy Halladay got 2 innings and 20 pitches on 4/12 before a 36-minute delay ended his night.
  • The Gothams’ 1-0, 10-inning combined 3-hitter at Kansas City on 4/13 was shaped entirely by weather: a 38-minute delay in the 5th ended Pete Donohue at 55 pitches and Masahiro Tanaka piggybacked the rest.
  • San Francisco‘s 11-0 on 4/14: a 33-minute delay in the 5th ended Bump Hadley at 5 innings, and Charlie Ferguson threw the last 4 without giving up another hit.

So what changed?

Essentially, if you go by real-world precipitation rates, you will see a lot of 30s in the weather table.

I just cut each number in half, rounding up. That was it–I left the driest months in LA and San Francisco alone so those summers are still bone dry, and I left Houston alone because of the roof.

We’ll be tracking these numbers and will report back at the end of the month.

The Stats

… will debut next week. Wanted to wait for 3 weeks of data.

Hardest-Hit Balls

Welcome to a new feature, enabled by Claude, who can parse through the game logs quickly and accurately!

So we can now present each week the hardest hits and the hardest outs.

This week, two men tied at the top, each launching bombs at 121 mph. Willie Stargell of Homestead got the better end of it — his solo shot off Houston’s Stephen Strasburg travelled 495 feet, which ties it for the longest home run struck in the league this season. Rogers Hornsby of the New York Black Yankees matched the exit velocity three days later, a 2-run drive off Cleveland‘s Ron Reed.

The hardest out belongs to Portland‘s Paul Molitor, who hit a 119 mph groundball out. Molitor had homered earlier in the game, on a ball hit 16 mph softer. That’s baseball.

TWIWBL 98.2: Year 3, Week 1 – Bill James Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Detroit Wolverines6-1.857—
Baltimore Black Sox3-4.4293
Cleveland Spiders3-4.4293
Memphis Red Sox3-4.4293
New York Black Yankees2-5.2864
Bill James Division | 8 April

Baltimore Black Sox

Ned Garvin deserved better. Finishing the suspended opener, he gave up one hit in five innings and struck out 10 — and lost. The hit was a Carlton Fisk home run leading off the second, Chino Smith got to John Tudor for a 3-run shot in the sixth, and Chicago took it 6-2. Still, an encouraging start to the season for Garvin.

The nightcap went the other way. Gavy Cravath hit a two-run shot off Waite Hoyt, Miller Huggins drove in three, and Dennis Martínez was good enough for a 5-3 win.

Tudor was injured later in the week, with Mike Mussina recalled from AAA Washington to take over Tudor’s swing role for the short-term.

Cleveland Spiders

Cy Young opened Cleveland’s season — a day late — with 6.2 innings, three hits, no runs and ten strikeouts, and Ryan Reed and Cody Gearrin finished off a five-hit shutout, 8-0 over Los Angeles. Lance Berkman hit a two-run homer.

Despite 14 hits, Cleveland fell 5-4 to San Francisco in 11 innings. Evan Longoria struck out 5 times, tying the American League record.

Another combined shutout came later in the week against Miami, as 5 arms combined on a 4-hit shutout with 17 (!) strikeouts: Mel Harder started, Whit Wyatt took over after a rain delay, and Reed, Aroldis Chapman and Terry Adams closed it out. Longoria — a better day this time — hit a two-run homer and Tris Speaker had three hits in the 4-0 win.

Adams was hurt in the series finale, but it’s not clear what the diagnosis is yet — a potentially impactful bit of news for the Spiders, although if he does go down, the recently-acquired Chapman would, assumedly, take over at closer.

Detroit Wolverines

The Wolverines are off to a WBL best 6-1 start to the season.

J. D. Martinez continues to impress, hitting a HR and 3 doubles in a 20 hit barrage against Chicago. The last was vital, as it scored Bobby Wallace with the winning run in the 9-8 victory over the American Giants.

Oscar Gamble closed the week with two home runs in a 5-2 win that saw Hal Newhouser improve to 2-0.

Wander Franco was hurt, with Damion Easley being recalled in his place.

Memphis Red Sox

FA Herman Long has been signed, presumably to take over at SS (Xander Bogaerts stays on the roster, but glove-man Adam Everett heads to AAA). Long was a platoon option for Birmingham, with Memphis hoping he can step into a larger role for them.

Ted Williams tied the franchise single-game record for runs, scoring 4 times, adding 4 hits (including a 2-run homer) as the Red Sox put fifteen hits on Los Angeles in a 10-5 win. David Ortiz had three hits and five RBIs, and Red Ruffing got the win despite giving up 5 earned in 5 innings.

Manny Ramírez hit 2 out in a 5-4 win over Baltimore. John Briggs also went deep, and, after blowing a lead, Armando Benitez claimed the victory.

Williams also launched the longest homer of the young season, a 480 ft. shot off Los Angeles’ Pud Galvin.

New York Black Yankees

The Black Yankees exploded in a 15-3 demolition of Detroit: 19 hits, 2 grand slams — Don Mattingly in the first, Mickey Rivers in the eighth — and home runs from Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig in between. Rivers finished with 3 hits, 3 runs and 5 driven in, Manny Sanguillén had 3 hits and Ed Charles 4, with promising rookie Whitey Ford getting the win.

Eric Davis hit one of the hardest balls of the opening week: a 472 ft. bomb that left the bat at 115 mph off Miami’s Phenomenal Smith.

Year III Season Preview: Chicago American Giants

{ Whoops, one slipped out of alpha order here … }

State of the Franchise

team logo

Chicago reads offensive production better than almost anyone in the league, knows exactly what it lacks, and spends aggressively to fix it. And then it keeps betting on the wrong arm(s), with it not being clear if the issue is bad luck or poor pitching talent evaluation.

The offense is a genuine strength: a deep, patient, on-base machine built around a Big Four — Joe Jackson, Dick Allen, Eddie Collins, Frank Thomas — that is young, exceptional, and beloved. The willingness to open the checkbook is real too.

Underneath that runs a more dangerous habit: it is possible the organization totally misjudges its overall trajectory. The American Giants read a 2000 first-round playoff exit as leaving them one pitching-fix from a title and acted accordingly. Then 2001 ended 73-89, 4th in the Cum Posey Division, 30 games back, with Thomas’s knee blown out in September to cap it.

So who are they? And are the holes in the club — CF, SS, the mound — a whisker or a chasm away from being filled? 2002 is an evaluation year, shadowed by a franchise player who won’t be back until around June, and watched by a fanbase that has learned a hard lesson.

2001 Revisited

A year ago the verdict was confident: championship contention — the offense is just too good not to warrant it, even if moves need to be made in the pitching corps. Turns out, the offense was far more fragile than it seemed. Chicago scored 829 runs in 2000 and 824 in 2001 — flat, which sounds fine until you remember the whole league’s offense exploded last season, so flat meant a fall from 3rd in the league to 18th. The role-player career years (Mike Fiore anyone? How about Duffy Lewis?) that made the 2000 lineup deep rather than top-heavy regressed almost in unison.

Then the part we’d actually flagged went worse than anticipated. The pitching didn’t fail to improve; it collapsed — 156 more runs allowed, the ace Tricky Nichols gone to ineffectiveness and then a July injury, and then an outright release. The worst case we’d sketched, fringe-bat regression and pitching collapse, arrived together and louder than anyone could predict. Thomas’s ACL injury in September was the final indignity on a season already 30 games gone. There is hope, though: through all of it, Joe Jackson simply raked — 355/410/608 with 68 doubles — and, along with a strong season from Allen and a decent (but far from the heights of 2000) year from Collins, as well as Ed Walsh‘s maturation into a rotation anchor, kept a little hope alive for the future. Hard to hold onto as a team loses 89 games, though.

Key Changes

In: Jay Bell (FA); Travis Jackson (HOU)
Out: Ted Lilly (FA); Trea Turner (HOU)

Opening Day Rookies: Víctor Cruz; Travis Jackson; Alex Reyes; Wilbur Wood

Best Case for 2002

Thomas walks back in healthy around June and the Big Four do what they do, anchoring the contact-and-on-base lineup Chicago built on purpose. The shortstop competition produces a real bat, Cristóbal Torriente‘s season looks like his rookie promise instead of his sophomore crater, Chino Smith forces a constant flow of PA with his bat, and — the eternal if for this franchise — the arms Chicago acquired actually translate this time: Ed Walsh looks dependable as an ace, but they need Waite Hoyt and Mark Buehrle to hold the middle, and the rebuilt bullpen to cohere around A.J. Minter.

Worst Case for 2002

The signature failure repeats. The arms don’t translate — again — Torriente’s .485 sophomore line (that’s OPS, not SLG) turns out to be the real one, shortstop is a hole for the third straight year, and with Thomas out until midseason the offense can’t carry a staff that can’t prevent runs. The bridge collapses into another lost season, the 2003 window slides toward someday, and a fanbase that already spent-for-and-got-burned once loses a little more faith.

Key Questions

  • Can Chicago finally find the right arms? There is great hope that the acquisition of Waite Hoyt helps solidify this, but beyond that it’s largely the same names — Buehrle, Ben Sheets, Herb Pennock. Someone has to step up. The habit is old enough to have a founding scar: in 2000, Chicago dealt the franchise’s brightest light, A. Rube Foster, chasing arms that never delivered — and Foster promptly became exactly what they keep failing to buy, a 200-inning, sub-3.50 ace, these days anchoring a rotation in Kansas City.
  • Which Torriente is real? The 19-year-old is the franchise’s “fifth star” bet: elite outfield glove, a genuine shot at being a useful two-way player, and a bat that swung from real promise to a miserable dumpster fire of a sophomore season. The org wants him to be the answer, and continually resists the call for him to sort out his stroke in the minors.
  • Who plays shortstop? Brought over in trade, Travis Jackson seems to have the opening day spot, but FA signing Jay Bell had a stronger spring, and Freddy Parent remains in the wings.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CFisk C · Nilsson · Doyle
1BVernon · Thomas A (IL)
2BCollins B · Chino Smith
SSBell · T. Jackson
3BAllen B · Lindstrom
LFJoe Jackson A · Mitchell
CFTorriente F · Stenzel (IL)
RFChino Smith · Colavito
DHMitchell · Thomas A (IL)
SPWalsh B · Hoyt D · Buehrle F · Sheets D · Moyer · Streeter F · Pennock
RPMinter D (CL) · Wood · Reyes · Cruz · W. Smith

It’s a lineup thick with proven bats and gaping holes. A lot rides on whether one of the SS and Chino Smith can fill those. And Thomas hangs over the whole thing in absentia — the captain whose June return reshuffles first base, designated hitter, and the mood of the season.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerSS Travis Jackson2B George Grantham
Batting Eye1B Frank Thomas1B Mike Fiore
ContactLF Joe JacksonCF Lance Johnson
Running Speed3B Dick AllenCF Lance Johnson
Base StealingC Jack DoyleSS Joe Sullivan
IF DefenseSS Travis JacksonSS Art Fletcher
OF DefenseLF Cristóbal TorrienteRF Magglio Ordóñez; RF Mike A Marshall
StuffSP Sam StreeterRP Jeff Nelson
ControlRP Wilbur WoodRP Joe Edelen
VelocityRP Alex ReyesRP Raisel Iglesias; RP Josh Hader

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (36)25SPJacob deGrom
2 (59)213BFreddie Lindstrom

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Alex Reyes (31), Travis Jackson (64).

A thin list, but there is talent behind. On the mound, deGrom leads a strong contingent with Zack Greinke, Ted Lyons, Harry Buckner, Ricky Bones, and Josh Hader all developing.

A year ago this list ran 7 deep and led with outfielders (Walter Davis, Lenny Dykstra); Dykstra was traded to Birmingham, and only Lindstrom remains (acquired from the Grays last year). The dearth of offensive talent shouldn’t be an issue — shouldn’t.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeJamie Moyer, 37Cristóbal Torriente, 19
HeightJeff Nelson, 6’8″Tommy Bond, 5’7″
OPSKevin Mitchell, 1.037Cristóbal Torriente, .485
HRBill D Wilson, 47 (AAA)José Tabata, 0 (AA)
SBEddie Collins, 73–
WAR (bat)Joe Jackson, 4.8Duffy Lewis, −1.7
WWaite Hoyt, 11–
SVJosh Zeid, 22 (AA)–
ERATommy Bond, 3.41 (A)Ben Sheets, 5.88
WAR (pit)Waite Hoyt, 3.1Wayland Dean, −0.3 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

WBL Year III Statistics

I needed a place to hold statistics that aren’t easily displayed in OOTP. Most of these are game-level performances.

For complete statistics, poke around on the WBL Stats Page.

Batting Statistics

2+ 3B Games

3+ 2B Games

3. Lou Gehrig (NYY); Grant Johnson (NYG); Al Kaline (DET); JD Martinez (DET); Jackie Robinson (BRK); Robin Yount (MCG).

3+ HBP Games

3. Melky Cabrera (BBB).

3+ HR Games

3. Gary Carter (OTT); Oscar Charleston (IND); Lou Gehrig (NYY); Rogers Hornsby (NYY).

3+ OF Assists

4+ BB Games

4+ CS Games

4+ Run Games

4. Oscar Charleston (IND); Roy White (BKR); Ted Williams (MEM).

4+ SB Games

5+ Hit Games

6. Rogers Hornsby (NYY).
5. Dan Brouthers (BRK); Charles Rogan (PHI).

5+ SO Games

5. Lou Gehrig (NYY); Evan Longoria (CLE).

6+ RBI Games

8. Lou Gehrig (NYY); Rogers Hornsby (NYY).
6. Gary Carter (OTT).

Cycles

Longest HRs

{ OOTP has, for a long time had a problem with surreally long HR distances. So we threw math at it–these distances are modified based on the game’s projected exit velocity, which puts a cap on how far the ball could actually travel. Far more realistic. }

510. Chuck Klein (POR).
497. Willie Mays (NYG).
495. Duke Snider (BRK); Willie Stargell (HOM).
490. Rogers Hornsby (NYY).
485. Buster Posey (NYG); Anthony Rizzo (HOD); Ted Williams (MEM).
484. Don Buford (NYG).
481. Andrew Payne (PHI).
480. Ted Williams (MEM).
475. Jim Ray Hart (NYG).
472. Eric Davis (NYY).

Pitching Statistics

80+ Game Scores

90. Whitey Ford (NYY).
89. Waite Hoyt (CAG); Mickey Welch (KAN).
88. Christy Mathewson (NYG).
87. Old Hoss Radbourn (OTT).
85. Smokey Joe Wood (KAN).
84. Steve Carlton (PHI); José Méndez (MCG).
83. Walter Johnson (POR).
82. Walter Johnson (POR); JM Ward (PHI).
81. Bill Byrd (BBB).
80. Watty Clark (SFS).

10+ Strikeout Games

16. Sid Fernandez (DET).
13. Bob Feller (CLE); Lefty Grove (SFS); Christy Mathewson (NYG); Walter Johnson (POR).
12. Lefty Gomez (BBB); Lefty Grove (SFS); Ron Guidry (NYY); Waite Hoyt (CAG); Pat Malone (CLE); Dick Redding (BRK); Jim Whitney (MCG); Smokey Joe Williams (BRK).
11. Steve Carlton (PHI); Bob Feller (CLE); Ned Garvin (BAL); Bump Hadley (SFS); Hardie Henderson (PHI); Walter Johnson (PR); Joseíto Muñoz (POR); Luis Padrón (IND); Charlie Root (DET); Bob Shawkey (KAN); Bill Steen (CLE); Smokey Joe Williams (BRK).
10. Don Drysedale (MEM); Ned Garvin (BAL); Cole Hamels (MCG); Connie Johnson (DET); Walter Johnson x2 (POR); Pat Malone (CLE); Christy Mathewson (NYG); Toad Ramsey (HOU); Sam Streeter x2 (CAG); Fernando Valenzuela (BRK); Justin Verlander (DET); Jim Whitney x2 (MCG); Smokey Joe Wood x2 (KAN); Cy Young (CLE).

8+ Walk Games

8. Hardie Henderson (PHI).

Shutouts

1 Hit. Mark Buehrle (CAG, 6 IP); Whitey Ford (NYY).
2 Hit. Old Hoss Radbourn (OTT); Mickey Welch (KAN).

Shutouts (Combined)

1 Hit. Old Hoss Radbourn / Kevin Gross / Ryan Dempster / Billy Koch (OTT).
3 Hits. David Price / Babe Adams (HOM, 7 IP); Charlie Root / Dick Donovan / Jason Frasor / Troy Percival (DET); Dave Righetti / George Jeffcoat / Vito Tamulis / Brian Wilson (NYG); Whitey Ford / Hoyt Wilhelm / Goose Gossage (NYY); Jock Menefee / Jeff Reardon / Lee Smith (KAN); Pete Donohue / Masahiro Tanaka / Kent Tekulve / Brian Wilson (NYG; 10 IP); Bump Hadley / Charlie Ferguson (SFS); Watty Clark / Joe Nathan (SFS); Waite Hoyt / AJ Minter (CAG).
4 Hits. Mel Harder / Whit Wyatt / Ron Reed / Aroldis Chapman / Terry Adams (CLE); Brett Anderson / Jimmy Key / Dellin Betances / Karl Spooner / Ed Bauta (HOD); Toad Ramsey / Jim Kern / Billy Wagner / Tug McGraw (HOU); Smokey Joe Wood / Lee Smith (KAN); Randy Johnson / Kevin Gross / BJ Ryan (OTT); Tony Brizzolara / Tony Mullane / Rheal Cormier / Goose Gossage (NYY).
5 Hits. Cy Young / Ron Reed / Cory Gearrin (CLE); Greg Maddux / Kerry Ligtenberg / Bruce Chen / Akinori Otuska / Harley Young (BBB); Waite Hoyt / Wilbur Wood / Will Smith (CAG); Joseíto Muñoez / John Wetteland (POR); Gaylord Perry / Hoyt Wilhelm (NYY).

TWIWBL 91.3: Off Season Review – Chicago American Giants

73 - 89, .451 pct.
4th in Cum Posey Division, 30 GB

Overall

Absolutely miserable year. Just awful, culminating in a bad injury to franchise stalwart Frank Thomas, who won’t be back until near midseason next year.

Some offensive highlights remain, but not enough, and the pitching staff was not only poor, but the organization’s roster moves rarely seemed coherent throughout the season. There are significant organizational concerns at SS, 3B, CF, and RF and everywhere on the mound except, perhaps, closer.

Even with all that, though, the team isn’t very far away from the playoff contender of last season, and the foursome of Eddie Collins, Joe Jackson, Dick Allen, and Thomas have the potential to be as good as any in the league.

But what a disappointing year.

What Went Right

Joe Jackson had another great year, slashing 355/410/608 with 68 doubles and 55 steals. He can just flat out hit.

Frank Thomas was doing Frank Thomas things before the injury, slashing 296/411/580 in 130ish games.

Dick Allen continues to be an excellent offensive force–a little below the other 2, but still, an OPS over .900 and a team leading 41 homeruns is nothing to sneeze at. Allen and Thomas led the team with 98 RBIs.

Eddie Collins fell off a bit from last year’s dizzying heights, but was stil excellent, posting an .800 OPS with 73 steals and 104 runs scored.

Kevin Mitchell emerged as an offensive force, delivering a 1.086 OPS in 250ish PAs. Rocky Colavito was less good, but still solid, about half that time. And Freddie Lindstrom was magnificent to the tune of a 1.114 OPS in even less time.

On the mound, last year’s Rookie of the Year, Ed Walsh, was excellent–far better than his 10-11 record–with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. And that ends our positive news from the pitching staff.

ALL STARS

Eddie Collins
Frank Thomas
Ed Walsh
MAJOR AWARDS

Eddie Collins, All AL First Team
Frank Thomas, AL 1B Silver Slugger
RECOGNITIONS

Rocky Colavito, AL All Rookie 2nd Team
Joe Jackson, All AL Second Team
Freddie Lindstrom, AL 21 & Under Team; AL All Rookie 2nd Team
Ed Walsh, All AL Third Team
Tom Williams, AL 21 & Under Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Joe Jackson, MVP
Ed Walsh, Pitcher of the Year
Eddie Collins, Heart & Soul
Dick Allen, Fan Favorite

Bill Husted, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Bill Wilson, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Cristóbal Torriente was perhaps the worst regular offensive player in the WBL. posting a .485 OPS. That’s … horrible. Torriente is only 19, is a defensive whiz, and even had a solid few appearances on the mound. But that OPS is miserable.

Freddy Parent was barely better, and even gold glove level defense doesn’t make up for a 229/272/292 slash line.

Duffy Lewis lost all of the power he showed last year, slugging .331.

And, none of the initial replacements for these players–Mike Cameron, Vernon Wells, Luke Appling–did much either.

And then the pitching … last year’s ace, Tricky Nichols, was miserable until derailed via injury. But a 7.27 ERA over just over 100 IP is not only not good enough for a front of rotation starter, it’s not enough to stay in the WBL.

None of the other starters–Mark Buehrle, Jamie Moyer, Sam Streeter, and Ben Sheets–approached an average level of performance. And the relievers–especially Fernando Rodney, Herb Pennock, and Billy Loes, were equally poor.

Transactions

March

None. Optimism reigned supreme.

July

None. They were too shell shocked to make any moves.

August

At this point it was clear that the season was lost, so a bit of panic set in: starting pitching and future talent, our country for starting pitching and future talent!

IF Jorge Orta, P Hoyt Wilhelm, & 4th Round Pick to NYY for P Waite Hoyt & 5th Round Pick.

Sure. Waite Hoyt looks like a solid WBL starter, making him more valuable than the occasionally unreliable Hoyt Wilhelm.

P Akinori Otsuka, IF Paul Konerko, OF Lenny Dykstra & 3rd Round Pick to BBB for P Sam Streeter, IF Trea Turner & 5th Round Pick.

Very understandable: Streeter and, especially, Turner, hold immense promise and while Konerko and Otsuka were fantastic, they are more likely to decline than improve.

P Joe Lake to IND for OF Jake Stenzel.

CF was such a black hole that this act of desperation makes some sense.

P David Price to HOM for IF Freddie Lindstrom & 2nd Round Pick.

This could be a huge win: a somewhat inconsistent veteran arm for what looks like a fantastic IF prospect plus the pick.

Positional Overview

C

Carlton Fisk is above average here, and likely to remain the backstop for a while.

However, Dave Nilsson was pretty bad as his backup, so look for that to be a bit of an open competition. Michael McKenry hit extremely well in the minors this year, but flopped in a late season callup, Bennie Tate offers a defensive minded option, and the organization still has hopes for the versatility of young Jack Doyle.

1B

This is a challenge. Thomas is supposed to be back around the All Star Break, and clearly takes over here once again. But what do the American Giants do between now and then?

There are a number of 1B who could be available in trade as short-term solutions, so there’s that.

Internally, Chicago signed Dick Wakefield pretty much for this eventuality, but Carlos May, Mike Fiore, and perhaps even Bibb Falk or Walter Davis may offer alternatives.

They could also slide Joe Jackson here–he’s no worse than Thomas defensively–opening an OF spot, specifically RF for Chino Smith.

2B

Eddie Collins all day, even with the dip in performance.

Chino Smith may see some time here, and both Doyle and Turner could fill in as wide-ranging utility players.

Damian Jackson is the best glove in the system, but has struggled in the WBL.

SS

Who knows.

Freddy Parent has been a massive disappointment, despite excellent glove work. But it’s unclear what to do.

My guess is Parent, Joe Sullivan, Danny Murtaugh, and Luke Appling fight it out in the Spring, with Trea Turner a bit of dark horse.

A trade could also be attractive here.

3B

Dick Allen is the incumbent, but Freddie Lindstrom‘s showing last fall could push Allen to either DH or LF.

Joe Crede is a reasonable alternative for depth here as well.

LF/RF

This could be pretty unstable. The contenders are clear: Jackson and Allen and Kevin Mitchell and Chino Smith, as well as Rocky Colavito, with Duffy Lewis still sticking around.

For the first half of the season, assuming Jackson plays a bit at 1B, this is probably Mitchell and Smith, although the better Freddie Lindstrom plays, the more complicated this gets.

Those are the best players in the system, but Bibb Falk, Carson Bigbee, Walter Davis, and Magglio Ordóñez each have some promise.

CF

Long term, perhaps for inexplicable reasons, the American Giants are still committed to Cristóbal Torriente. But they need some help until the teenager is ready. That’s why they brought in Jake Stenzel. But Stenzel was pretty awful in his 30 games, managing only a 240/296/394 slash line.

So if he falters, one of the corner OFers could slide over or Chicago could turn to Lance Johnson, Mike Cameron, or Henry Cotto.

DH

Whichever OFer isn’t on the field, most likely.

SP

Hoo boy.

We have Ed Walsh, and then we have an abyss of question marks.

Waite Hoyt and Ben Sheets are likely to make the rotation. Beyond that, both Mark Buehrle and Sam Streeter have talent but a horrid track record, and Herb Pennock and Joel Horlen are untested. Throw Tricky Nichols, Tom Williams, and Jacob deGrom into the mix as well, and we’ll see what happens during the Spring.

That covers most of the organization, although Harry “Green River” Buckner and the ageless Jamie Moyer may get some looks as well.

RP

AJ Minter should come back as the closer, and Fernando Rodney did enough to hold onto a spot. Beyond that, it’s all a bit jumbled. Clearly the long relievers will come from the list above, but for the rest … Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Paul Assenmacher, and Bob Locker could all see some time. None of those four have seen WBL time, so we’ll see.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 2
3rd Round: 0
4th Round: 0
5th Round: 3

It could be a decent draft, or this capital could be spent plugging some of the roster holes. It’s not clear which way Chicago will go.

TWIWBL 91.2: Off Season Review – New York Black Yankees

90 - 72, .497 pct.
1st in Bill James Division
Lost to CLE 4-1 v PHI in AL Wild Card

Overall

This franchise will never be satisfied without a championship. So … they’re not satisfied.

This team will always score runs, and they have decently reasonable expectations for their rotation (even with the odd departure of Red Ruffing). So, once again, the question is how do they shore up the back end of their staff and the ongoing misery that is the Black Yankees’ bullpen.

But the core of this team is so magnificent: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, Rogers Hornsby, and now Grant Johnson. Of those, only Schmidt (29) and Hornsby (34) are over 25. So it should be good for a while yet.

But they’ve never been wary of blowing things up, so it could be another busy offseason in the Bronx.

What Went Right

The team revolves around the Bambino. 73 homeruns (a record expected to stand for a while) and 167 RBIs will do that, along with a slash line of 280/412/744. And, honestly, he’s more likely to repeat at that level than Ty Cobb at his, so another Mel Trench Award may be in the future.

On any other team, Lou Gehrig would be the focal point (63 homeruns, 132 RBIs, 292/399/721). Here, Gehrig seems happy to be more in the shadows despite the superlative performance. Gehrig may move to 1B next season–it depends on what the decide to do with Don Mattingly.

And then there’s Mickey Mantle, the youngest of the three, posting a .969 OPS. Yeah, he strikes out too much (219 times), but the power and ability to get on base is amazing. If Eric Davis‘ injury woes continue, Mantle will see more and more time in CF.

Speaking of Davis, he was a great performer (.882 OPS with 61 SB) in the 111 games he played in. So that’s both sides of his coin.

Mike Schmidt doesn’t hit for average, but he hits for power and gets on base while playing fantastically at the hot corner.

Rogers Hornsby is 34, but he’s still arguably the best 2B in the league. His playing time may continue to reduce, especially if Grant Johnson, who slashed 280/330/538 after his arrival from Houston, continues at that pace (Johnson will play both 2B & SS, maybe even some 3B).

On the mound, last season’s big acquisition, Andy Pettitte, delivered in spades, leading the staff with an 18-9 record and a 4.43 ERA (not close to leading the league, as he did last year, but still quite respectable).

Yet again, Ron Guidry has a great year by advanced analytics … and a less than stellar one by traditional ones. Guidry finished 11-7 with a 4.51 ERA, 2nd in the league with 251 strikeouts. But his SIERA, WAR, and FIP were significantly better than Pettitte’s. So, we’ll see if Louisiana Lightning can put it together on both sides at some point.

And then the starters fade dramatically. Pascual Pérez was mediocre after coming over from Portland, Dave Righetti was .. fine, and the noise around Tony Brizzolara is more because of how much better he was than, say, Jack Scott‘s 7.34 ERA.

In the bullpen, Goose Gossage was usually excellent, but often horrid, taking over at closer and posting 20 saves to go along with 8 holds and an ERA barely over 4. And Hoyt Wilhelm was quite good after coming over in trade.

But … beyond that … Rheal Cormier had 18 holds with horrible numbers.

ALL STARS

Lou Gehrig
Goose Gossage
Andy Pettitte
Babe Ruth
Mike Schmidt
MAJOR AWARDS

Rogers Hornsby, AL 2B Silver Slugger
Mickey Mantle, All AL Team
Babe Ruth, All AL Team; AL OF Silver Slugger
RECOGNITIONS

Tony Brizzolara, AL All Rookie 2nd Team
Lou Gehrig, All AL 2nd Team
Goose Gossage, All AL 2nd Team; AL 23 & Under Team; Phineas Flint Award 3rd Place
Ron Guidry, All AL 3rd Team
Rogers Hornsby, AL Over 30 Team
Grant Johnson, AL 25 & Under Team
Mickey Mantle, AL 25 & Under Team; AL 23 & Under Team
Andy Pettitte, All AL 2nd Team; AL Over 30 Team
Babe Ruth, AL 25 & Under Team; Mel Trench Award, 2nd Place
Mike Schmidt, All AL 2nd Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Babe Ruth, MVP
Andy Pettitte, Pitcher of the Year
Lou Gehrig, Heart & Soul
Eric Davis, Fan Favorite

Noah Syndergaard, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Mickey Rivers, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

The IF was rough for much of the year, with Tom Herr playing himself out of the WBL, Héctor López struggling in a reserve role, and Derek Jeter‘s offensive struggles. Jeter is slowing in the field at 33, and his .744 OPS isn’t going to cut it.

Don Mattingly hits OK, but an .800ish OPS won’t cut it at 1B.

And then there’s the pitching.

The issue was really that nobody stepped into the void after the good performers. Jack Scott was miserable as a starter as was Minor League Pitcher of the Year Noah Syndergaard who thoroughly failed his WBL audition, and David Robertson, Roy Evans, Gary Lavelle and a host of others were even worse out of the pen.

Aroldis Chapman continues to have lightning in his left arm and no real sense of how to use it.

Transactions

March

OF Albert Belle, P Frank Viola, P Lefty Gomez, IF Jess Barbour to BBB for P Andy Pettitte, OF Mickey Rivers, 3rd Round Pick.

Seems like a clear win: Pettitte became the staff ace, Rivers, while thoroughly blocked, was the Minor League Player of the Year, and they still have the pick.

July

IF Willie Randolph, P Jake Peavy, P Bill Monbouquette, 1st Round Pick to POR for IF Rogers Hornsby, P Pascual Pérez.

Depending on the pick and how Peavy develops, this could be seen as a colossal error, but the Black Yankees are a win-now organization, and Hornsby delivered as promised.

August

P Waite Hoyt & 5th Round Pick to CAG for IF Jorge Orta, P Hoyt Wilhelm, & 4th Round Pick.

On the one hand, (Waite) Hoyt is exactly the kind of mid-rotation starter New York now needs; on the other, Hoyt (Wilhelm) should settle some of the bullpen for quite some time. So, shrug?

P Sparky Lyle, IF Elliott Maddox, P Carlos Rodón, 2nd Round Pick, & 4th Round Pick to HOU for IF Grant Johnson.

The price was high, but HR Johnson is a fantastic talent, and has a clear role with the Black Yankees. Still, the cupboard is getting bare for the future (future? what is this future? there is only now sneers the Black Yankees’ board).

Positional Overview

C

Thurman Munson slid a bit this year, but he’s still quite solid and Manny Sanguillén is one of the better backups in the league. Both will return.

If they falter, Darrin Fletcher, Eric MacKenzie, or Ron Pruitt look most likely to be able to help out.

1B

For now, this is Don Mattingly, but he either needs to step it up or Gehrig may see more time here, with Nick Etten in reserve.

In terms of pure 1B, only Fred Whitfield has much promise, although Anthony Volpe has his supporters. Roger Maris may get some reps here occasionally as well.

2B

Rogers Hornsby is here, with a lot of support from Grant Johnson. Veteran Hardy Richardson is still at AAA, and could fill in if needed, while Tom Herr is always around.

More interesting is Jorge Orta, who had a brilliant debut, but seems a bit positionally blocked in the system.

SS

The Black Yankees will trot out Derek Jeter again, but he really isn’t providing enough to hold his starting role indefinitely. Should Jeter continue to struggle, look for Grant Johnson to see time here as well.

There is some talent in the system, from the defensive prowess of Alcides Escobar and Dansby Swanson to the overall talents of Charlie Irwin and Mark Grudzielanek.

3B

Mike Schmidt is under appreciated pretty universally, but he’s a spectacular talent. Look for Josh Harrison to push Héctor López for the reserve role, with Heinie Groh offering a strong defensive option.

LF/RF

Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle are an impressive duo, to say the least.

Roger Maris did enough in limited action to warrant a long look as a the reserve OFer.

Should they be needed, a quartet of minor league veterans could be useful: Hank Bauer, Gene Moore Jr, Nick Swisher, and Jayson Werth.

CF

Eric Davis will be here as long as he’s healthy, with Mantle sliding over as well.

The minors have some talent as well, led by young Clyde Milan, but also Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Minor League Player of the Year Mickey Rivers.

DH

If Mattingly stays, this is Gehrig, but if not, it offers a well to work some of the additional OF talent into the mix.

SP

Andy Pettitte and Ron Guidry are set, and Dave Righetti and Tony Brizzolara are likely assured of spots as well. That leaves an open spot for Pascual Pérez, Whitey Ford, Noah Syndergaard, and Art Ditmar to fight over.

Vic Raschi, Jack Scott, and Roy Evans each have shown some promise lower in the system as well.

RP

Gossage and Wilhelm will be welcomed back; Cormier and Chapman accepted with a little less enthusiasm.

Beyond that, it’s pretty open. Herm Wehmeier faltered after a promising start, but he, Jeff Nelson, and Anthony Varvaro will get a close look in the Spring, as will minor league closer Paul Shuey.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 0

It’s honestly surprising the Black Yankees have this many picks left. Some of these may be used to bolster the bullpen, others would be aimed at replenishing a somewhat depleted system.

TWIWBL 87.13: The Starters

On to the starters! Same Tier system.

This is everyone who qualified for the ERA crown, plus a heaping handful of others who made at least 10 starts during the season. If a player had less than 162 innings, they are (a) probably knocked down a tier and (b) their name is prefaced by a * and italicized.

We’ve leaned on valuing IP in these rankings, perhaps a bit too much. But these are your starters, and they need to show up, game after game. It also means the Tiers are a little different: there are D-Tier pitchers here that you would welcome at the back end of your rotation, and it’s really only some of them, and the F Tier, that are truly an issue.

Our usual practices prevail: bold for top 3 and italics for bottom 3. Pitchers with below 162 IP aren’t included in the top/bottom markers.

#S Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
NLKCMA. Rube Foster2411-83.302041.02.189 BA
.219 BABIP
0.7 HR/9
3.63 FIP
NLINDLuis Padrón2223-33.222351.04220 K
.192 BA
.225 BABIP
NLHOUToad Ramsey2316-103.232230.97282 K
.182 BA
11.4 K/9
3.8 K/BB
3.40 FIP

Just look at all that bold.

It’s been these 3 all year, and there’s a hair’s breadth between them. The analytics like Toad Ramsey, but Luis Padrón‘s record is stunning and while his ERA crown came by the absolute thinnest of margins, it did come.

Knuckleballers are always a bit unpredictable season-to-season, and it may very well be that A. Rube Foster has the best career of these three. But great things are expected of each of them.

#A Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALSFSLefty Grove2716-64.402091.15230 K
2.2 BB/9
9.9 K/9
4.4 K/BB
ALMCGJosé Méndez2313-64.532331.11201 K
2.2 BB/9
NLBRKFernando Valenzuela2414-53.691631.081 Sv; 4 H
—BBB/
MCG
Jim Whitney2410-73.832021.101 Sv; 2 H
NLBRKSmokey Joe Williams2412-133.932021.230.8 HR/9
3.55 FIP
NLKCMSmokey Joe Wood2215-124.111911.13

Lefty Grove and Smokey Joe Williams each have an argument to move up a tier, but are held back, Grove’s instance by his ERA, in Williams’ by his record. Still, they are the class of this group.

If José Méndez hadn’t led the league in innings, he would probably drop down a level, but we’re nitpicking: these are staff aces on most teams. Note that Miami, Brooklyn, and Kansas City already have 2 pitchers each on this list.

#B Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALLAABrett Anderson2211-64.341891.12
NLHOU* Ice Box Chamberlain194-43.561091.131 Sv; 1 H
NLHOURoger Clemens2517-103.712111.13
ALSFSBump Hadley2318-64.101891.180.9 HR/9
4.2 BB/9
NLPHIHardie Henderson2118-123.782091.234.2 BB/9
1.7 KK/B
NLBRKOrel Hershiser2719-53.691851.21
NLHOD* Kyle Peterson228-33.801071.16
ALNYYAndy Pettitte3318-94.432011.21
ALSFSEddie Plank2720-74.422101.31
ALCAGEd Walsh2510-113.942051.151 Sv
201 K
.225 BABIP

Hardie Henderson, Roger Clemens, and perhaps Eddie Plank (but that would be giving an awful lot of weight on 20 victories) could all be nudged up, but I’m comfortable with this. These are all front of rotation hurlers, with the only real surprise being Brett Anderson, who quietly excelled in a difficult year for Los Angeles. Ed Walsh, last year’s Rookie of the Year, avoided the sophomore slump entirely.

If you’re looking for skepticism, both Ice Box Chamberlain (due to age) and Kyle Peterson (due to coming out of nowhere) are decent bets to regress.

#C Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALPORWalter Ball268-74.261421.20
NLPHISteve Carlton2512-135.051871.24
NLINDJohnny Cueto2912-144.622121.14
NLHOM* Doug Drabek256-84.761471.171 H
NLBRKDon Drysdale2211-85.661861.28
ALLAADwight Gooden2211-114.361941.29
ALNYYRon Guidry2811-74.512081.24251 K
10.9 K/9
NLOTTRoy Halladay2915-95.171951.262.2 BB/9
ALPORWalter Johnson2013-124.282141.28
NLBRK* Sandy Koufax216-34.931191.162 H
ALMEMStubby Overmire2513-104.722121.266.1 K/9
NLNYGGaylord Perry2212-154.341891.12
NLKCMJosé Rijo268-125.091791.26
NLPHICharles Rogan2712-94.511881.24
ALCLEBill Steen2613-104.711931.331.9 K/BB
NLNYGDon Sutton2517-85.231741.25
NLPHIJM Ward206-105.011961.16

Gaylord Perry and JM Ward were perhaps the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year: a bit of good fortune, and either could be several tiers above. If anyone is ranked too highly, it’s probably Bill Steen. There are a lot of names here that could easily take a step forward–Steve Carlton, Don Drysdale, and Walter Johnson especially.

Sandy Koufax blossomed in the bullpen after losing his rotation spot, but Brooklyn is likely to try him again as a starter next season.

Joe Rogan is just a remarkable talent. Everyone else here has great value solely from being on the mound: add Rogan’s bat and … yoikes.

#D Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALMEMLen Barker2511-124.991801.44
ALSFS* Tommy Bridges376-75.381461.21
ALPORBert Blyleven2110-115.032041.32
NLKCMFrank Castillo2312-75.211931.32
ALSFS* Watty Clark266-44.021341.302 H
NLPHI* Ray Collins244-74.621211.271 H
ALCLE* Bob Feller2013-34.301531.34
NLBBB* Lefty Gomez279-94.901541.302 H
ALNYY/
CAG
Waite Hoyt2411-44.891691.444.1 BB/9
NLBRKFrank Knauss2312-64.551801.34
NLHOMFrancisco Liriano2310-125.031811.38
NLBBBGreg Maddux2310-145.351951.2859 HRA
.225 BABIP
6.50 FIP
ALBALDennis Martínez2412-85.122021.42
NLNYGChristy Mathewson227-165.612101.40207 K
ALPOR* Joseíto Muñoz204-44.561011.371 Sv; 2 H
ALBAL* Jim Palmer258-84.881381.371 H
NLBBBAlejandro Peña268-115.591801.31
NLHOMBilly Pierce3010-115.771731.36
NLHOD* Rick Reuschel308-84.611351.311 Sv; 1 H
NLHODBob Rush2411-95.281861.322 H
NLHODCC Sabathia285-155.892021.351 Sv; 1 H
64 HRA
3.2 HR/9
6.90 FIP
ALCAGBen Sheets276-125.881651.321 H
NLOTT* Bill Smith2610-33.771241.351 H
NLHOUStephen Strasburg259-105.871691.37
NLHODJack Taylor2612-105.901921.42.291 BA
6.4 K/9
ALCLECy Young2515-95.381991.39.307 BABIP

There are some absolute conundrums here. Greg Maddux‘s issues are obvious in the final column: his BABIP is top-3 in the league, showing just how good his stuff is. But he has to keep the ball in the ballpark. At least once in a while.

Christy Mathewson and Cy Young seem like they could do more than be massive inning eaters, but they need to be harder to hit to make the jump forward. But pitching is weird: Jack Taylor and Gerrit Cole (see below) were among the best on the mound last season, and struggled mightily this.

Bob Feller would warrant a bump as well with a few more solid starts.

#F Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALCAGMark Buehrle318-125.111851.386.3 K/9
ALMEM* David Bush269-96.581491.32
ALLAAGerrit Cole267-156.361661.432.9 HR/9
6.52 FIP
ALMCGCole Hamels2511-126.181781.4263 HRA
.293 BA
3.2 HR/9
3.7 K/BB
NLNYG* Carl Hubbell266-105.751601.291 H
NLHOM* Cliff Lee308-45.301141.323 H
NLHOURoy Oswalt287-116.531811.49.295 BA
.305 BABIP
NLOTTCharles Radbourn2712-135.892021.35
ALDETCharlie Root3111-106.151991.4259 HRA
ALLAATom Seaver237-85.811641.44
—BBB/
CAG
* Sam Streeter253-115.631231.34
ALPORDizzy Trout295-125.931621.504.1 BB/9
1.8 K/BB
ALDETJustin Verlander255-126.481691.52.310 BABIP
NLIND* Doc White275-126.551431.341 Sv; 3 H

Most of these issues are clear: too many homeruns, too many walks, way too many runners on the basepaths. Maybe Old Hoss Radbourn could argue to be one tier up. Maybe.

Other than that, it must be said there is a ton of talent here: Roy Oswalt, Tom Seaver, and Justin Verlander jump out as most likely to bounce back next year.

It must be said there are probably 2 dozen more names that could be listed in the F Tier. Check out the individual team maps as they are published for those, but suffice to say that, when a pitcher goes down in flames in the WBL, they burn awfully bright.

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