Kansas City has spent 2 years building a pitching staff and 2 years failing to build a lineup. Perhaps 2002 changes that.
The pitching arrived all at once last season: A. Rube Foster opened the year in the bullpen, moved into the rotation, and threw 204 innings with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, coming 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting. Smokey Joe Wood, 22, went 15-12 behind him and hit well enough to DH on his own start days. Craig Kimbrel inherited the ninth inning and kept it. That, along with the deepest bullpen in the league, makes the staff feel pretty settled.
In front of them sit Albert Pujols and Stan Musial, both 23, both already among the best bats in the league. And then … well … then there wasn’t a lot else. 37% of the Monarchs’ plate appearances went to hitters with a sub-.700 OPS, which is how a team leads the Marvin Miller Division into July and finishes 79-84 and 3rd. The response has been blunt: Robinson Canó, Willie McGee, Lou Brock and Steve Evans all open this season at Triple-A St. Louis, and the org went out and bought 2 bats.
The park is rated the most extreme pitcher’s yard in the league, and the club builds as though that’s true — chase doubles into the gaps, not homers, and let good arms play up.
This is a connoisseurs’ franchise. Its fans will take a 2-1 win and the bases-loaded walk, and they’ll tell you Foster is an ace no matter what his stuff grades say.
▌ 2001 Revisited
A year ago we wanted a .500 finish, and the worst case we could imagine was the worst pitching staff in the league with an offense that couldn’t compensate. Kansas City went 79-84 — genuine progress from 66-88 — and got the exact inverse of the nightmare.
The staff turned into a strength. Last year, we thought that might come from Bob Gibson. Not so much: the lightning-armed Gibson put up a 6.82 ERA across 11 starts. Instead, it came from Foster and Wood, and from Lee Smith‘s 0.75 WHIP across 50 appearances, from Eddie Guardado, from Mike Kume‘s 1.95 in 22 games, and from Kimbrel taking the closer’s job after Jeff Pfeffer collected 16 saves with an ERA above 6.
Pujols took the step the preview asked for and then some: 316/375/645 with 44 homers and 96 extra-base hits, and the organizational MVP. Musial had the odd year — 300/371/519 is not a bad line, and 59 doubles is a marvelous one, but 13 homers from a bat like that is a bit of a concern? Maybe?
And it collapsed anyway, because underneath the top the lineup could not hit. Ozzie Smith won a Gold Glove, stole 64 bases and posted a .660 OPS in 525 plate appearances. Canó was among the worst bats in the league. McGee, Frankie Frisch and Brock were not much better.
The pitching arrived in force. The hitting never did, but the signal for change was clear, and acted on — gone are the days of Lou Brock and Willie McGee in the OF, with the Monarchs settling on Cool Papa Bell for speed and defense. Gone as well is the experiment of Pujols at 3B, with Doug Rader being brought over from Los Angeles.
▌ Key Changes
In: Benny Kauff (NYG); Doug Rader (LAA) Out: Dale Murphy (NYG); Jeff Pfeffer (LAA); José Rijo (LAA)
Opening Day Rookies: Cool Papa Bell; Eddie Guardado; Mike Kume; Jock Menefee; Merv Rettenmund; Joe Thatcher; Kolten Wong
▌ Best Case for 2002
The bottom of the order stops giving at-bats away. Benny Kauff — 38 homers and 39 doubles for the Gothams last year — and Doug Rader turn 2 of last season’s sinkholes into real at-bats, second base firms up into something merely ordinary, and the 23-year-olds take the step their age promises: Pujols again, Musial’s power back alongside the doubles, Ted Simmons building on 47 doubles and an .830 OPS from behind the plate.
Cool Papa Bell, the organizational Minor League Player of the Year, runs down everything hit into the biggest outfield in baseball. Foster repeats, Wood takes the next step, and the spring’s crowded rotation audition produces 3 arms that hold.
Do that, and the pen shortens every game to 7 innings, and a club that led the division in July just might lead it in September.
▌ Worst Case for 2002
The lineup stays bottom-heavy, only with new names attached. Rader drove in barrels of runs in 2000, but really hasn’t shown a lot since: the statheads are not thrilled with his arrival.
Second base never gets solved. The back of the rotation stays replacement-level and the innings behind Foster and Wood get expensive. And Lee Smith is 35 with no proven arm behind Kimbrel, so one injury turns the league’s deepest bullpen into an ordinary one.
▌ Key Questions
Can the front office make the hard decisions to raise the standard? The first answer was demotion — Canó, McGee, Brock and Evans are all at Triple-A — and the second was Kauff and Rader, which is where it gets interesting: Rader is a power-and-defense third baseman with a .297 OBP. Kauff is the cleaner fit, a left-handed masher of right-handed pitching. Sure, they need to succeed, but perhaps the more important thing here is the front office finally addressing the offense.
Who, exactly, plays second base? Demoting Canó was easy, given his 2001. But … replacing him with a Kolten Wong / Frisch timeshare seems hardly an improvement.
Is the rotation more than 2 names? Foster and Wood are a real front pair. Behind them the org has quantity and no clarity — Adam Wainwright threw 187 innings of 4.05 ball at Triple-A, Gibson still has the best stuff on the staff, and Bob Shawkey was worth −2.2 wins in 101 innings. The measure of the crowd: Frank Castillo made the NL All-Star team last year, put up a 5.21 ERA in 193 innings, and opens this season at Triple-A.
▌ Roster Evaluation
Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.
Pos
Players
C
Simmons C · Pérez
1B
Powell C
2B
Frisch F · Wong
SS
O. Smith D
3B
Rader F
LF
Pujols S · Bell
CF
Kauff B
RF
Musial C · Rettenmund
DH
Harris C
SP
Foster S · Wood A · Wainwright · Gibson · Menefee · Shawkey
RP
Kimbrel A (CL) · L. Smith S · Guardado S · DiPino C · Kume B · Thatcher
Wood is a real bat — 287/343/504 in 140 plate appearances, taken mostly on his own start days — and the org has been open about wanting more of that. And Kume is the mirage: an amazing 2001, but nobody is quite sure how he gets anybody out, ever.
▌ Talent Ratings
WBL
Minors
Raw Power
1B Boog Powell
1B Lew Brown
Batting Eye
LF Cool Papa Bell
1B Otto Schomberg
Contact
RF Stan Musial
LF Wade Johnston
Running Speed
2B Kolten Wong
CF Jarrod Dyson; CF Alex Diaz
Base Stealing
LF Cool Papa Bell
CF Jarrod Dyson; 1B Joe Start
IF Defense
SS Ozzie Smith
SS Sam Mongin
OF Defense
LF Cool Papa Bell
RF Tommy McCarthy
Stuff
RP Craig Kimbrel
RP Matt Thornton
Control
SP Smokey Joe Wood
SP Luke Hamlin
Velocity
RP Craig Kimbrel
RP Vinnie Pestano
▌ Best In The Minors
Rank
Age
Pos
Name
1 (4)
21
SP
Bill Singer
2 (9)
23
SS
Sam Mongin
3 (45)
22
LF
Wade Johnston
4 (50)
23
3B
Bill Bradley
5 (57)
25
RP
Vinnie Pestano
6 (86)
21
1B
Otto Schomberg
7 (88)
22
2B
Keston Hiura
Others: C Johnny Bassler, P Larry French, P Matt Morris, P Hilton Smith.
The 5th-best system in the league, even with Foster (#2) and Bell (#3) now with the big league club. Wade Johnston has plummeted from being ordained the top overall prospect in the league to where he is now, but he was good enough in the Spring to keep the argument alive. Other names from last year: Heliodoro Hidalgo went to the House of David in the deal that brought Lee Smith, Earl Averill to Baltimore, and Carlos Baerga to the Gothams in the Kauff trade.
But the Monarchs just reloaded. Bill Singer is the 4th-ranked prospect in baseball, Sam Mongin has climbed to 9th, and the layer under them is more arms — French the lone left-hander with real upside, Morris and Hilton Smith behind him — plus 19-year-old catcher Johnny Bassler. And note the name at the bottom of the ranked list: Keston Hiura plays second base. So that could be useful.
▌ Superlatives
Most
Least
Age
Joe Start, 38
Johnny Bassler, 19
Height
Adam Wainwright, 6’7″
Otto Briggs, 5’7″
OPS
Albert Pujols, 1.020
Otto Briggs, .585 (A)
HR
Albert Pujols, 44
Otto Briggs, 2 (A)
SB
Ozzie Smith, 64
–
WAR (bat)
Albert Pujols, 6.2
Otto Briggs, −0.4 (A)
W
Smokey Joe Wood, 15
–
SV
Stan Yerkes, 23 (AA)
–
ERA
A. Rube Foster, 3.30
Hilton Smith, 7.29 (A)
WAR (pit)
A. Rube Foster, 3.8
Bob Shawkey, −2.2
Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.
79 - 84, .485 pct.
3rd in Marvin Miller Division, 6 1/2 GB
Overall
Kansas City led the Marvin Miller Division for most of the first half of the season … and then pretty much collapsed.
They have a top 3 or 4 pitching staff in the league in terms of high end performance, but struggle after that talent, especially in the rotation, and ultimately have a pretty weak offense that needs multiple upgrades.
It’s an interesting conundrum. Albert Pujols, A. Rube Foster, Smokey Joe Wood, Lee Smith, Eddie Guardado, and Craig Kimbrel are as good as they come. And Stan Musial, Ted Simmons, and perhaps even Ozzie Smith are solid.
But the talent falls off the cliff after that, and it’s not really clear what the solution is: do you hope for improvement from some of the young talent? Do you move some of the high end for overall upgrades? Do you just stand pat and applaud the various accolades earned by that top group? The off season in Kansas City could range from nothing to incredibly active.
What Went Right
All the elite talent.
Albert Pujols led the team in most things, slashing 316/375/645 with 44 homers and 96 extra base hits. Pujols played mostly at 3B this season, and it’s not sure how long that can last, as LF or 1B or DH seem a more likely destination for him.
A. Rube Foster was spectacular, finishing the season with a 3.30 ERA and a miniscule 1.02 WHIP. Foster, who ended up with an 11-8 record, was in the bullpen at the start of the year, but still made 24 starts and finished with over 200 IP.
Lee Smith, brought over from the House of David was virtually unhittable, finishing with a 0.75 WHIP over 50 appearances. Smith paired with Eddie Guardado, whose numbers were actually quite similar, to setup closer Craig Kimbrel. It took a while for this back of the bullpen to emerge: the Monarchs started the season with Jeff Pfeffer as their closer (Pfeffer did amass 16 saves, but also an ERA over 6.00).
Smokey Joe Wood missed some time through injury, but was excellent otherwise, being one of the few 2 way players with a positive contribution both ways. Wood finished 15-12 with a 4.11 ERA and excellent peripherals.
After those, there is a bit of a dropoff, but some things still went well.
Stan Musial had an odd year. It’s not like 300/371/519 is bad. But it’s far below Musial’s potential, and while 59 doubles is great, Musial only hitting 13 homeruns is quite a disappointment. Still, not bad.
Ted Simmons is excellent behind the plate, and his .830 OPS is very strong for a catcher.
Boog Powell hit a severe slump towards the end of the year, but still provided some power and an ability to get on base.
Kansas City’s 3rd and 4th primary starters, Frank Castillo and José Rijo, were solid, although not much more than that.
Mike Kume was the surprise of the season, posting a 1.95 ERA in 22 games, and further solidifying their relief corps.
Adam Wainwright and Matt Morris both impressed in limited appearances late in the year.
Ozzie Smith, Willie McGee, Musial, Frankie Frisch, Lou Brock, and Cool Papa Bell combined for over 200 steals.
ALL STARSFrank CastilloA. Rube FosterCraig KimbrelStan MusialAlbert Pujols
MAJOR AWARDSA. Rube Foster, NL Team of the Year; NL Brock Rutherford Award 3rd Place; NL Rookie of the Year 2nd Place
Eddie Guardado, NL Team of the Year
Craig Kimbrel, NL Phineas Flint Award 3rd Place
Lee Smith, NL Team of the Year; NL Phineas Flint Award 2nd Place
Ozzie Smith, NL Gold Glove SS
RECOGNITIONSA. Rube Foster, NL All Rookie Team; NL 25 & Under Team of the Year
Eddie Guardado, NL All Rookie Team
Joe Harris, NL All Rookie Team
Mike Kume, NL All Rookie Team
Albert Pujols, NL 2nd Team of the Year; NL 25 & Under Team of the Year, NL 23 & Under Team of the Year
Lee Smith, NL 30 & Over Team of the Year
Ozzie Smith, NL Over 30 Team of the Year
Smokey Joe Wood, NL 2nd Team of the Year; NL 23 & Under Team of the Year
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDSAlbert Pujols, MVP
A. Rube Foster, Pitcher of the Year
Stan Musial, Heart & Soul
Craig Kimbrel, Fan Favorite
Joe Thatcher, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Cool Papa Bell, Minor League Player of the Year
What Went Wrong
Robinson Canó was among the league’s worst offensive performers, showing none of the power he displayed in year 1.
Ozzie Smith provided speed and defense, but virtually no offense.
Steve Evans, much hyped in Spring Training, was so poor he ended up in AAA.
Pfeffer’s struggles were mentioned above: in the long run, his demise cleared the way for Kimbrel, so perhaps this is more silver lining than something going wrong.
Bob Gibson has explosive stuff, but managed a 6.82 ERA over 11 starts. At 26, he really needs to start to produce.
Luke Hamlin–the Monarchs’ #1 last year–worked his way out of the rotation, ending the year 6-12 with a 5.55 ERA. Likewise, a key part of last year’s bullpen, Dustin Hermanson, was pretty bad this season.
Transactions
March
None.
July
IF Heliodoro Hidalgo, P Jimmy Key, & 3rd Round Pick to HOD for IF Joe Harris & P Lee Smith.
Harris is a quality bat off the bench, but at 36, that’s his best role. But, Smith is the real key to the deal, and his performance this year along may make the deal worthwhile.
August
At this point, Kansas City thought they still had a chance to make the post-season, which helps give context for this deal.
OF Earl Averill to BAL for P Joe Beggs & 2nd Round Pick.
Averill is a loss, but the Monarchs really believe CF belongs either to Cool Papa Bell or Willie McGee. Beggs was OK, and should help out next year as well.
Positional Overview
C
Ted Simmons should have this locked up for a decade.
Behind him, teenager Johnny Bassler has a lot of talent. Until he’s ready, Salvador Pérez will continue to be Simmons’ backup at the WBL level.
1B
Powell will man 1B again for Kansas City, but Andre Thornton made a good showing in a September callup, and could be turned to if Powell’s end of season struggles continue.
Joe Harris and Pujols play this as well; behind them there’s not a lot of WBL level talent in the system.
2B
If Canó cannot improve dramatically, this is an area of need for Kansas City. Frankie Frisch was better than Canó when given the chance, but that’s not saying much. Behind them, Kolten Wong and Keston Hiura look to have some talent, but don’t look really ready for the WBL.
Hiura, Wong, and perhaps veteran Rex Hudler may get opportunities in Spring Training.
Carlos Baerga may end up here, but at 19 he still has a way to go.
SS
The Monarchs are fine with what Ozzie Smith provides, so look for his backflips to remain for a few years.
Beyond Smith … there’s not a lot. Edgar Rentería has all the tools, but hasn’t shown much and Sam Mongin looks likely to be best at other positions.
3B
An interesting conundrum for the Monarchs here: on the one hand, Pujols is one of the best in the game; on the other, he’s likely to move out of this position. So, for now, Pujols. But the question of who else is available is potentially important.
Frisch can play here, but veteran Ken Boyer is a more likely interim solution while Mongin, Bret Barberie, and Bill Bradley sort out their development.
LF/RF
LF is a bit of a free for all.
While Cool Papa Bell may end up in CF, he and Ducky Medwick are the lead contenders, but the Monarchs are still trying to figure out what to do with Dale Murphy.
This is all waiting for the arrival of the highly regarded Wade Johnston, but that’s still a year or two away.
RF, on the other hand, is set with Musial: if this year’s version of Musial is the Musial we get, he’s still an all-star caliber player. And that is seen pretty much universally as his floor.
There is some talent behind Musial as well: Steve Evans, Merv Rettenmund, Jim King, and Tommy McCarthy could all be decent WBL 4th outfielders.
CF
Bell and Murphy can play here, and the Monarchs believe Willie McGee can bounce back from a disappointing season.
One of those need to step up, as only veteran Fielder Jones looks to have legitimate WBL talent in the minors.
DH
This is set as some mixture of Pujols, Harris, and Murphy.
SP
So few teams have the challenge of having too many options on the mound, but welcome to Kansas City.
A. Rube Foster and Smokey Joe Wood will anchor the staff, with José Rijo‘s spot also assured.
Behind them, however, there will be some competition during the Spring between Jock Menefee, Bob Gibson, Frank Castillo, Joe Beggs, Matt Morris, Adam Wainwright, and Bob Shawkey. And while veterans Luke Hamlin and Jeff Pfeffer will get a chance, most assume their days in the rotation are done.
Bill Singer and Hilton Smith are probably the highest ceiling arms in the minors, although both Larry French and Marcus Stroman have some potential as well.
RP
The WBL bullpen should be among the best in the league, with Lee Smith, Eddie Guardado, and Frank DiPino getting the ball to Craig Kimbrel.
Mike Kume was excellent, but there are hints it may have been a bit of a fluke. Veteran Matt Thornton will compete with Dustin Hermanson, Joe Thatcher, and Trevor Rosenthal for the final spots.
We previewed the Gold Gloves in August, but now it’s time to do the real thing, one per position per league. We’ll go through them first, then list the award recipients at the end.
I do believe in defense mattering over time, as such, we’re using an 800 IP minimum for the GG awards. For each position, we’re listing the top 3 in each league, AL followed by NL.
We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.
Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.
Outfielders also have Assists (A), more romantically referred to as Outfield Kills are runners eliminated on the bases and Arm Runs (AR), which measures the net runs gained on an outfielder’s throws, including runner advancements.
Finally, catchers, who are really their own thing, also have RTO% (the percentage of runners thrown out trying to steal, abbreviated as RT), PB (passed balls), Framing Runs (the number of runs gained by the catcher’s positioning), and cERx, which reflects the ERA while the catcher was behind the plate compared to the overall staff ERA. A cERx below 1 means the catcher was better than the rest of the staff, above 1, worse.
#C
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
RT
PB
cERx
FR
NL
IND
Johnny Bench
1144
.995
9.3
1.3
1.19
36
11
1.03
7
HOD
Elrod Hendricks
923
.994
8.3
3.8
1.14
40
9
1.01
5
NYG
Buster Posey
1095
.996
8.9
0.4
1.00
35
8
0.96
10
AL
POR
Joe Mauer
1103
.996
9.5
3.5
1.04
39
6
1.01
5
NYY
Thurman Munson
1122
.995
9.8
2.3
1.00
35
5
0.96
4
MCG
Iván Rodríguez
1104
.998
9.8
5.7
1.05
46
17
0.98
2
So, what is a catcher’s primary duty? Helping their staff, controlling the running game, and then, a somewhat distant third, making their own defensive plays.
The choice in the AL is pretty obvious, in the NL, I think it comes down to how much do you weigh Posey’s ability to frame pitches, and his ~150 more innings played than Hendricks.
#1B
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
NL
KCM
Boog Powell
1105
.996
9.1
3.4
1.02
HOD
Anthony Rizzo
828
.995
8.7
0.8
1.02
IND
Joey Votto
1072
1.000
8.4
5.1
1.04
AL
DET
Hank Greenberg
1159
.996
8.3
2.5
1.02
POR
Kent Hrbek
1007
.995
8.6
1.3
1.03
MEM
Bill White
886
.993
9.1
0.5
1.01
Again, one choice is pretty clear–the NL this time.
In the AL, it’s much closer, but Greenberg makes some plays that Hrbek just doesn’t.
#2B
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
NL
KCM
Robinson Canó
1134
.990
4.6
11.0
1.06
BBB
Cupid Childs
1022
.983
4.5
7.3
1.09
PHI
Chase Utley
1173
.994
4.9
13.7
1.07
AL
DET
Charlie Gehringer
971
.989
4.9
-10.7
0.94
BAL
Miller Huggins
923
.987
4.3
10.8
1.10
MCG
Cookie Rojas
877
.993
4.4
-3.3
0.97
These are two relatively easy choices. And, there is a question of what’s going on in the AL, where almost everyone has a negative ZR.
#SS
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
NL
NYG
Brandon Crawford
1046
.966
4.2
11.4
1.07
IND
Barry Larkin
911
.975
4.7
9.0
1.07
KCM
Ozzie Smith
1188
.992
4.7
12.2
1.06
AL
SFS
Dick Lundy
934
.987
4.5
10.8
1.06
CAG
Freddy Parent
952
.978
5.0
13.6
1.06
CLE
Arky Vaughan
1143
.982
4.2
13.4
1.09
In the NL, it’s another clear choice: while Smith and Crawford both make the sensational plays, Smith makes all the plays.
The AL is much, much closer and there’s really not much to choose from between Parent and Vaughan. As such, we’ll go with the player who stayed on the field more.
#3B
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
NL
OTT
Adrián Beltré
1055
.974
2.6
-0.8
1.00
BRK
Ron Cey
1138
.975
2.5
6.0
1.03
PHI
Scott Rolen
1155
.970
2.3
5.0
1.06
AL
POR
Buddy Bell
1169
.968
2.5
8.0
1.05
CLE
Evan Longoria
1148
.963
2.2
4.8
1.04
NYY
Mike Schmidt
1140
.958
2.4
5.3
1.03
The hot corner is a challenge: everyone makes 2, 2 1/2 plays a game, so RF is less useful, although Beltré’s 2.6 does stand out, as does Longoria’s more limited mobility. But it means fPct–as a proxy for errors–and dEff rise in importance. In the AL, while it’s not by a mile, I think Bell is the clear choice while in the AL, it ends up being between Cey and Rolen, with the final edge going to The Penguin.
#LF
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
A
AR
NL
IND
Bob Bescher
839
.989
1.9
-4.8
0.96
2
-2.8
PHI
Sherry Magee
839
.994
1.7
4.8
1.04
1
-2.3
BRK
Roy White
1152
.992
1.9
10.3
1.07
6
-1.0
AL
CLE
Johnny Bates
1018
.978
2.0
8.8
1.06
4
-1.3
SFS
Rickey Henderson
1202
.982
1.6
12.2
1.18
3
-3.6
BAL
Frank Robinson
996
.990
1.8
0.2
1.00
5
-2.2
The AR numbers reflect just how hard it is to prevent runners from advancing on flyballs, and makes Jim Wynn‘s 3.7 mark there all the more remarkable. Unfortunately, the rest of Wynn’s numbers leave him out of the finalists entirely.
The NL is an easy choice, and one that gives us a repeat winner in Roy White. Over in the Al, it’s harder, but Bates makes more plays and has a far better arm than Henderson, despite how much ground the Sea Lions’ speedster covers.
#CF
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
A
AR
NL
OTT
Carlos Beltrán
1045
.982
2.9
9.5
1.06
10
-1.0
PHI
Willie Davis
1035
.988
2.9
16.3
1.10
4
-2.8
NYG
Willie Mays
1214
.989
2.8
14.5
1.05
4
-4.7
AL
BAL
Paul Blair
935
.986
2.7
11.8
1.09
3
-2.6
CLE
Tris Speaker
1047
.982
2.8
10.0
1.06
9
-2.4
SFS
Turkey Stearnes
1027
.979
2.8
7.4
1.05
5
-4.7
Assists can be misleading: Detroit’s Chili Davis gunned down 14 runners and Kansas City’s Willie McGee 11, but they, overall, just weren’t effective enough out there to warrant their inclusion. Remember, the weaker the arm, the more often it gets run on, the more chances for assists you may get.
Look, Willie Mays is a great defensive CF. But Willie Davis, simply, had a better year out there. In the AL, you can only unseat Paul Blair if you give massive weight to Speaker’s additional 3 assists. But given how close they are in AR, it’s hard to rationalize that. So Blair it is once again, our 2nd repeat winner.
#RF
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
A
AR
NL
BBB
Hank Aaron
945
.979
1.7
4.4
1.06
6
0.6
HOM
Roberto Clemente
1134
.979
2.2
7.1
1.06
11
-2.6
KCM
Stan Musial
972
.981
2.0
8.4
1.07
2
-0.4
AL
MEM
Mookie Betts
880
1.000
1.9
7.6
1.07
2
-3.8
DET
Al Kaline
971
.991
2.1
3.8
1.03
6
-1.8
LAA
Ichiro Suzuki
1195
1.000
2.0
5.7
1.04
7
-3.0
The NL is insanely close. Musial makes more spectacular plays than Clemente, Clemente makes marginally more plays overall and has that cannon for an arm, although Musial limits baserunners more effectively. It’s a coin flip, but today we’ll go with Clemente’s additional 150 innings as the difference maker.
In the AL, it’s clearly one of the players who didn’t make a single miscue, and although Betts has the edge in a few metrics, Suzuki has over 300 more innings–1200 innings without an error, but with great range, is incredible.
#P
We’re using 140 innings as the cutoff for the pitchers. Additionally, we have access to number of Framing Runs the pitcher benefitted from, as well as the SB numbers against them. Errors tend to be so low from pitchers, that fPct is no longer a really useful metric.
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
RF
ZR
dEff
RT
FR
NL
HOD
Bob Rush
186
1.2
3.7
1.00
60
0
HOD
Jack Taylor
192
0.9
5.2
1.00
57
0
PHI
JM Ward
196
1.0
3.4
1.16
51
0.4
AL
POR
Bert Blyleven
204
0.9
5.6
1.00
59
0.3
BAL
Bob Feller
153
1.0
3.3
0.91
68
-0.3
POR
Walter Johnson
214
0.8
5.0
1.20
59
0
Sample size, of course, wrecks havoc with pitcher’s defensive stats. Still, we have what we have.
Not only does Bob Rush make a lot of plays, he keeps runners from stealing, and while Jack Taylor makes more spectacular plays, Rush’s ZR is more than good enough to take the award home. In the AL, Johnson and Blyleven are neck-and-neck, but we’ll go with Blyleven, who has a slight edge in most categories.
#The Gold Gloves
Pos
American League
National League
C
Iván Rodríguez (MCG)
Elrod Hendricks (HOD)
1B
Hank Greenberg (DET)
Joey Votto (IND)
2B
Miller Huggins (BAL)
Chase Utley (PHI)
SS
Arky Vaughan (CLE)
Ozzie Smith (KCM)
3B
Buddy Bell (POR)
Ron Cey (BRK)
LF
Johnny Bates (CLE)
Roy White (BRK)
CF
Paul Blair (BAL)
Willie Davis (PHI)
RF
Ichiro Suzuki (LAA)
Roberto Clemente (HOM)
P
Bert Blyleven (POR)
Bob Rush (HOD)
There are a surprising number of teams with 2 Gold Glove winners–Baltimore, Portland, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, and the House of David.
But the overall number of finalists may be more interesting, as it should give some indications as to the higher tier defensive units in the league. Here’s how that stacks up:
6. Cleveland 5. Philadelphia 4. House of David, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Portland 3. Baltimore, Detroit, New York Gothams, San Francisco 2. Birmingham, Brooklyn, Memphis, Miami, New York Black Yankees, Ottawa 1. Chicago, Homestead, Los Angeles
There are some names missing here that may be expected–be sure to look at the DH summary to find most of them.
This group is totally dominated by the AL, with no NL first baseman showing up until the B Tier.
We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.
Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.
#S Tier
That’s right, none. Maybe Jim Thome belongs here? Lou Gehrig certainly does, but he played primarily as a DH this season. S Tier is supposed to be hard, and a simple 1.000 OPS doesn’t automatically grant entry.
#A Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
CLE
Lance Berkman
29
276/369/633
57 HR 143 RBI 112 R
7.70 RF
AL
SFS
Jack Clark
29
257/380/605
51 HR 115 RBI 107 R 101 BB
8.36 RF
AL
DET
Hank Greenberg
24
266/352/672
59 HR 134 RBI 107 R
8.27 RF
AL
CAG
Frank Thomas
24
296/411/580
.991 fPct -2.6 ZR .944 dEff
AL
MCG
Jim Thome
28
267/375/659
59 HR 122 RBI 101 R
.993 fPct -4.0 ZR .961 dEff
This comes down to the choice between Thome and Hank Greenberg, and there’s not much to choose from between them. Note how bad this group is defensively–it just doesn’t matter much when you’re mashing the ball like this.
Frank Thomas‘ injury must be noted, with the Big Hurt expected to be out well into next season.
#B Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
HOU
Jeff Bagwell
24
266/378/548
35 HR 112 RBI
NL
BRK
Dan Brouthers
25
317/363/587
23 SB
NL
NYG
Will Clark
28
292/367/585
33 HR
AL
LAA
Carlos Delgado
32
251/342/585
44 HR
.993 fPct
AL
POR
Kent Hrbek
25
289/346/575
37 HR
–
CAG/ BBB
Paul Konerko
34
288/380/584
36 HR
.998 fPct 2.9 ZR 1.050 dEff
AL
MEM
David Ortiz
27
280/371/676
34 HR
NL
HOD
Anthony Rizzo
24
287/391/594
Paul Konerko‘s defense may actually move him up into the group above, but in general the gap between this group and, say, Jack Clark, remains significant. Additionally, Konerko barely played enough in the field to qualify here–as a DH, there’s no chance he moves up a tier.
David Ortiz‘ performance probably shifts him up a level, but limited appearances and a fair bit of time at DH keeps him here for now. The same argument could be made for Anthony Rizzo and Dan Brouthers. For both, we have erred on the side of caution.
#C Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
BAL
Dan McGann
38
286/400/495
9.13 RF
NL
KCM
Boog Powell
28
254/349/500
9.12 RF 3.4 ZR
NL
IND
Joey Votto
32
246/381/521
36 HR 32 SB
1.000 fPct 5.1 ZR 1.036 dEff
Mirroring the top group, all of this great defense leaves this trio as solid, respectable starters, but not much better than that. Dan McGann is actually pretty much done, with Baltimore already declaring Eddie Murray next year’s starter, but Boog Powell and Joey Votto should keep seeing action for a few more seasons at least.
#D Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
HOM
Mike Epstein
26
215/347/495
-3.3 ZR .960 dEff
NL
BBB
Adrián González
27
252/310/487
AL
NYY
Don Mattingly
26
286/304/502
1.027 dEff
NL
OTT
Rusty Staub
21
268/333/508
.998 fPct
AL
MEM
Bill White
29
264/311/528
.993 fPct 9.05 RF
Homestead may be looking to move on from Mike Epstein given this season’s struggles, while Ottawa believes Rusty Staub will improve dramatically. Memphis has already indicated that Bill White has lost his job to Ortiz (see above). Don Mattingly and Adrián González are both conundrums: the swing is sweet, but the production is not, and both are preventing higher output players from time in the field.
#F Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
BRK
Pedro Guerrero
29
236/303/445
NL
PHI
Ted Kluszewski
31
245/289/436
Pedro Guerrero played most at 1B, but also saw action at 3B and the OF. Regardless, this is not the offensive performance the Royal Giants were looking for when they obtained him. Ted Kluszewski is likely to lose his starting job next season.
It’s been a good year for Kansas City: they are in the playoff hunt, and seem well positioned for the future, especially if they can address a highly imbalanced offense.
THE OFFENSE
There’s just a little too much mediocrity here–a lot of players that are solid pieces, but may not be strong enough for lead roles in this league.
#What’s Going Right
The offense revolves around 2 players: Albert Pujols and Stan Musial. Pujols has moved into the elite category this world, with the 22 year old maintaining an OPS over 1.000 with 40 homers and 113 RBIs, all of which lead the team. Musial is a more complicated case: a .900+ OPS is excellent, but 12 homers is just disappointing from Musial’s level of talent. His eye is still excellent, and 59 doubles makes his SLG impressive … but Musial has better seasons in him.
Smokey Joe Wood has an OPS of .887 in about 135 PA’s, making him one of the few 2-way players that actually contributes on both sides.
Ted Simmons remains one of the better hitting catchers in the league, with an OPS in the mid .800s.
Boog Powell is solid at 1B, drawing walks and adding a bit of power.
This team has a ridiculous amount of speed, led by Ozzie Smith‘s 59 SB, but Willie McGee, Frankie Frisch, and Musial each have over 30 steals, and rookie Cool Papa Bell has 15 in only 36 games.
Bell struggled initially, but his roughly 80 points of additional OPS has moved him ahead of McGee in the CF pecking order.
#What’s Not Going Right
Smith, for all his speed and his gold glove level defense, has an OPS well under .700. The value is still there, for sure, but if the Wizard of Oz could contribute just a little more offensively, it could be significant for KC.
Robinson Canó hits barely more than Ozzie, without the rest of the positives, making 2B a pretty sizable weakness for the Monarchs.
There’s nothing wrong with Ducky Medwick or Dale Murphy, but there’s little right as well. Each has power, but not a lot else–if either of them could take a big step forward, the Monarchs could find their 3rd dangerous bat.
THE PITCHING
This is a fantastic staff, top to bottom, with enough depth that some of these arms are likely to be dealt in the offseason as Kansas City tries to gain more offense.
#What’s Going Right
A. Rube Foster has emerged as a legitimate ace, at or near the top of the league in WHIP, BABIP, and most other advanced anlytics for starting pitchers. Foster started the year in the bullpen, but has now made 23 starts and should exceed 200 IP.
Smokey Joe Wood is a great #2, and both José Rijo (he of the first WBL perfect game) and Frank Castillo are far above average behind the top 2 starters.
Throw in youngsters Matt Morris and Adam Wainwright–both of whom have been quite impressive in a handful of starts–and you have a very deep crop of starters.
Craig Kimbrel continues to dominate since being moved into the closer role and Eddie Guardad0, Lee Smith, and the surprising Mike Kume are absolutely lights out in front of him: Kimbrel’s 1.14 WHIP is the worst of that group, as is his 3.48 ERA.
#What’s Not Going Right
Luke Hamlin and Jeff Pfeffer–last year’s #1 and closer respectively–have essentially pitched their way to the bottom of the staff. Hamlin has lost his spot in the rotation, and Pfeffer is essentially a mop-up arm at this point.
Bob Gibson continues to struggle to adapt to the WBL despite his eye-popping stuff.
But to give you a sense of how strong the staff is, those 3 (plus the newly acquired Joe Beggs) are the only hurlers with ERAs over 5.00.
It’s a good system, with some help available across the board.
Cool Papa Bell and Wade Johnston are highly rated in the OF and Sam Mongin (impressive in his first few games) will force himself into the conversation on the IF as soon as next season. Carlos Baerga, Dink Mothel, Dave Cash, Kolton Wong, or Keston Hiura should provide some options at 2B if the organization gives up on Canó. Baerga may be the best of that group, but at 18 is probably still a few years away.
On the mound, Hilton Smith, Bill Singer, Gene Garber, Joe Blong, and Jack Quinn should all have WBL careers, with Smith probably having the highest ceiling of the group.
WHAT’S NEEDED
Offense. Upgrades could be had everywhere except C and wherever Pujols or Musial end up.
Storylines to Watch
Key Questions from Spring Training
Who is going to fill out the rotation and the bullpen? This one was answered brilliantly, and the trade for Lee Smith only improved the situation.
3B looks unsettled. Yeah, it still is. Or, more accurately, seems like it still will be. Pujols has played about 120 games there, but it really feels like his future is at a less demanding defensive position.
How does the competition between Ducky Medwick and Steve Evans pan out? Not very well for Evans, who played his way off the 40-man roster, spending most of the season at AAA.
Instead of a Featured Series, you can follow Kansas City’s exploits during the final week in tomorrow’s post.
{Every year towards the end of the season, I do some legwork so when the awards roll around, it’s not as burdensome. This week, the fielders, next week, the rookies.}
We’re going to do this position by position, mixing the leagues, with the candidates listed alphabetically. 600 IP minimum, unless otherwise noted.
Last year, only 1 set of awards were given; this year, with the creation of the NL, there will be 2 at each position.
Some of the positions have their own things, but a note about some of the standard fielding statistics. Range Factor measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact.
Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.
#C
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
A
E
PB
ZR
RTO%
cERA
FRM
Johnny Bench
IND
NL
967
112
4
10
3.5
40%
5.26
7.6
Curt Blefary
BAL
AL
937
103
2
4
2.0
38%
5.68
1.6
Gary Carter
OTT
NL
900
114
5
9
4.3
42%
6.15
4.9
Josh Gibson
HOM
NL
973
102
3
6
-1.5
30%
5.98
7.7
Elrod Hendricks
HOD
NL
825
104
4
7
4.6
41%
5.47
3.9
Joe Mauer
POR
AL
974
129
5
6
2.7
37%
5.36
4.9
Thurman Munson
NYY
AL
957
91
6
2
3.0
36%
5.29
3.0
Mike Piazza
BRK
NL
966
88
2
12
-2.8
31%
4.62
4.5
Buster Posey
NYG
NL
933
100
4
9
2.6
39%
5.43
8.0
Iván Rodríguez
MCG
AL
917
116
2
14
5.3
47%
5.61
1.8
Ted Simmons
KCM
NL
907
108
5
5
2.4
37%
4.31
-2.3
IP = Innings Played; A = Assists; E = Errors; PB = Passed Balls; ZR = Zone Rating; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; cERA = Catcher’s ERA; FRM = Framing Runs Saved
Catcher’s stats are just all over the place.
It’s hard to take cERA and FRM all that seriously when they fall so far outside the bounds of the rest of the information at our disposal–although, to be fair, cERA is clearly tied to the quality of the staff and, as such, perhaps is best viewed as a net difference from the overall team ERA. Perhaps I’ll look at that for the actual awards.
Regardless, it feels like, if you look at a catcher’s primary job of making plays and keeping the opposition running game under control, Carter in the NL and Pudge in the AL are the frontrunners. The argument against each, if there is one, would have to focus on their league-leading (in the wrong way) PB numbers.
But this one doesn’t really feel close at this point.
Last year’s winner, Cleveland’s Louis Santop, has struggled so much offensively this year that his playing time has really dropped him out of contention, although his defensive performance remains top-notch.
#1B
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
A
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Mike Epstein
HOM
NL
957
952
56
80
4
8.93
3.0
1.016
Hank Greenberg
DET
AL
973
891
58
74
4
8.20
2.7
1.022
Kent Hrbek
POR
AL
884
846
45
79
5
8.57
1.8
1.028
Don Mattingly
NYY
AL
710
642
40
54
5
8.07
1.8
1.031
Dan McGann
BAL
AL
879
887
66
69
6
9.02
-1.9
.978
Boog Powell
KCM
NL
978
998
56
80
4
9.15
3.0
1.016
Joey Votto
IND
NL
942
863
62
76
0
8.25
4.5
1.040
Bill White
MEM
AL
793
812
35
66
6
9.15
0.4
1.007
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
The 2 best defensive 1Bs in the league–Kansas City’s Boog Powell and Indianapolis’ Joey Votto–are both in the NL. So the competition there is clear, as is, ultimately, the current frontrunner in Powell. Votto’s edge in the digital measures–ZR and Efficiency–may make this a more challenging choice at the end of the year.
In the AL, it’s far more confusing, but it feels like the discussion is between Detroit’s Hank Greenberg and the Black Yankees’ Don Mattingly. Mattingly hasn’t played a ton, so perhaps Greenberg edges him? Portland’s Kent Hrbek could probably edge into the discussion as well.
Will Clark of the New York Gothams, who won it last year, has been fine, but falls just short of contention.
#2B
Five 2B had only 3 errors, but 2 of them–Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson and Boston’s DJ LeMahieu–have under 700 innings at the position. LeMahieu is the leader in Defensive Efficiency, so he made the list, but Robinson did not.
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Roberto Alomar
OTT
NL
1035
511
62
10
4.36
-3.1
.978
Robinson Canó
KCM
NL
994
524
76
5
4.70
9.7
1.060
Eddie Collins
CAG
AL
995
528
77
11
4.67
-7.6
.943
Miller Huggins
BAL
AL
796
383
50
5
4.27
9.1
1.097
Chuck Knoblauch
CLE
AL
951
443
64
3
4.16
-9.6
.926
Nap Lajoie
HOM
NL
876
485
66
4
4.94
7.3
1.049
DJ LeMahieu
MEM
AL
644
345
53
3
4.78
7.7
1.110
Cookie Rojas
MCG
AL
738
363
62
3
4.39
-3.6
.965
Ryne Sandberg
HOD
NL
863
489
60
3
5.07
5.4
1.035
Chase Utley
PHI
NL
988
538
61
2
4.88
13.8
1.081
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
Ryne Sandberg and Napoleon Lajoie have had fine years at 2B, but Philadelphia’s Chase Utley has been fairly spectacular, leading the world in Zone Rating with excellent numbers across the board.
The AL is more confusing, as the best fielders–Miller Huggins and DJ LeMahieu–have yet to hit 800 innings in the field. But there really aren’t a lot of other contenders: Eddie Collins, who won it last year, has amassed a ton of time at 2B, and hence is among the leaders in the counting stats, but his other numbers are surprisingly bad.
#SS
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Jim Fregosi
POR/PHI
AL/NL
1077
497
60
8
4.09
-10.6
.940
Derek Jeter
NYY
AL
1061
504
67
16
4.14
-19.0
.911
Barry Larkin
IND
NL
705
380
49
9
4.74
8.3
1.085
Dick Lundy
SFS
AL
838
411
46
6
4.35
8.2
1.057
Freddy Parent
CAG
AL
888
508
56
11
5.04
13.2
1.058
Ozzie Smith
KCM
NL
1019
543
67
5
4.75
11.0
1.068
Arky Vaughan
CLE
AL
940
444
53
8
4.17
10.4
1.085
Robin Yount
MCG
AL
952
473
59
6
4.41
8.3
1.052
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
It feels like the choices here are pretty clear: Ozzie Smith in the NL and Freddy Parent in the AL. Smith should be uncontroversial, but Parent is subject to some discussion, as he is getting less and less playing time for the American Giants. If it’s not Parent, it is probably Arky Vaughan or Robin Yount, with the question being whether Yount’s surer hands outweigh Vaughan’s greater range.
George Davis, who won it last year, logged just under 50 games with Detroit before being sent to AAA and suffering a significant injury.
#3B
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Dick Allen
CAG
AL
1046
260
24
15
2.11
0.5
1.010
Buddy Bell
POR
AL
1045
296
23
8
2.48
7.9
1.054
Adrián Beltré
OTT
NL
936
272
6
7
2.55
0.3
1.007
Ron Cey
BRK
NL
956
278
24
7
2.55
4.7
1.035
Manny Machado
BAL
AL
857
259
14
10
2.61
0.9
1.013
Eddie Mathews
BBB
NL
1014
291
29
8
2.51
-2.6
.986
Doug Rader
LAA
AL
1047
287
26
13
2.35
0.9
1.021
Scott Rolen
PHI
NL
973
265
16
7
2.39
4.0
1.050
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
Portland’s Buddy Bell has probably been the best 3B in the WBL this season, so he should take the award in the AL. In the NL, it currently comes down to Scott Rolen and Ron Cey, whose numbers are pretty indistinguishable at this point, perhaps with a slight edge to Cey.
#LF
For the OF, DP is replaced by Outfield Kills, and we introduce ARM, a measurement of how many runs have resulted from runners taking extra bases on balls hit to the that fielder. Note that positive ARM ratings are relatively rare: runners do tag up.
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
K
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
ARM
Johnny Bates
CLE
AL
1006
205
4
2
2.09
7.0
1.053
-1.0
Bob Bescher
IND
NL
681
149
1
2
1.94
-4.3
.950
-2.1
Don Buford
LAA/NYG
AL/NL
705
127
0
1
1.61
-2.8
.957
-0.6
Rickey Henderson
SFS
AL
1040
199
3
4
1.69
10.0
1.104
-2.8
Sherry Magee
PHI
NL
658
127
1
0
1.74
3.7
1.046
-1.9
Bob Nieman
BBB
NL
720
145
4
2
1.79
-1.0
.961
-1.6
Frank Robinson
BAL
AL
897
184
4
2
1.83
0.3
.998
-1.8
Babe Ruth
NYY
AL
627
128
1
2
1.81
5.7
1.084
-1.3
Roy White
BRK
NL
1006
213
5
2
1.89
9.3
1.075
-1.2
Jim Wynn
HOU
NL
755
140
0
2
1.64
-4.4
.955
3.3
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
It feels like Roy White has a shot at being the first repeat winner as he has once again proven incredibly dependable in LF for Brooklyn, while adding more Kills and excellent supporting numbers.
In the AL, It feels like it’s the range of Rickey Henderson against the overall dependability of Johnny Bates–who actually makes more plays the Rickey, but some of that is down to staff effects.
Have to call out the nutty ARM rating for Jim Wynn, which is as flukish as fluke can be.
#CF
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
K
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
ARM
Paul Blair
BAL
AL
838
251
3
2
2.73
10.4
1.084
-2.3
Chili Davis
DET
AL
979
283
13
8
2.53
-12.5
.928
1.5
Willie Davis
PHI
NL
898
287
4
3
2.85
15.2
1.109
-2.0
Curtis Granderson
BBB
NL
974
317
1
5
2.88
4.8
1.030
-4.6
Pete Hill
HOU
NL
800
222
2
2
2.47
0.7
.997
-2.8
Willie Mays
NYG
NL
1065
327
3
4
2.73
11.3
1.046
-4.2
Willie McGee
KCM
NL
845
261
10
7
2.71
-5.9
.963
-1.4
Mike Trout
LAA
AL
940
282
2
1
2.69
-0.2
1.006
-3.3
Vernon Wells
CAG
AL
624
209
2
3
2.97
-5.2
.968
-2.6
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
Not a lot to pick from in the AL, which increases Paul Blair‘s chance at a repeat selection. It probably comes down to Blair’s overall excellence against the spectacular highlight reel nature of Chili Davis‘ year: Davis hasn’t made all the plays, but has thrown out 13 runners. Mike Trout is in the conversation, but Blair edges him across the board, and is the likely frontrunner.
In the NL, things are much deeper, and we run into the question of how to weigh playing time. Willie Mays has similar numbers to Willie Davis, but over 200 more innings in the field, which I think is enough to give him the edge. Some mention should be made of the steady Curtis Granderson and the surprising 10 kills from Kansas City’s Willie McGee.
#RF
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
K
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
ARM
Beals Becker
BRK
NL
1022
233
7
3
2.03
3.0
1.007
0.7
Mookie Betts
MEM
AL
775
166
1
0
1.93
6.8
1.076
-3.7
Roberto Clemente
HOM
NL
973
243
8
6
2.19
5.6
1.050
-3.1
Larry Doby
CLE
AL
768
186
1
7
2.10
5.0
1.064
-4.2
Stan Musial
KCM
NL
801
157
2
4
1.72
7.0
1.072
0.8
Ichiro Suzuki
LAA
AL
1035
227
5
0
1.97
5.4
1.036
-2.4
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
This is very close in both leagues.
In the NL, you could make an argument for all 3 of the contenders: Brooklyn’s Beals Becker has been steady across the board; Stan Musial covers a huge amount of ground for Kansas City and has a higher ARM than Becker; and Roberto Clemente makes the most plays and has the most Kills. I think it’s Clemente or Musial, with Musial slightly in front, maybe?
Over in the AL, it’s between Mookie Betts and Ichiro Suzuki, neither of whom have made an error in RF this season. Betts has been slightly better with the glove, Suzuki slightly better with the arm. Perhaps Suzuki, partially because he has played more innings in RF than anyone.
Last year’s winner, Johnny Callison, has done well this season, but is just out of the conversation. Mention should be made of Ottawa’s Larry Walker as well: Walker doesn’t cover a ton of ground, but has only made a single error in RF this season.
#P
125 IP minimum.
A few additional stat for hurlers, including the number of steal attempts and the % thrown out as well as the number of runs gained through their catcher’s ability to frame strikes. Obviously, both of these are highly dependent on the quality of backstop, but they also do impact the evaluation of the pitcher.
We’ve also taking out E and DP as stats, as odd as that may seem, as there is just not enough variance to really make much of them.
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
RNG
ZR
Eff
SBA
RTO%
FRM
Roger Clemens
HOU
NL
183
13
0.64
-3.0
1.659
61
25
-0.4
Gerrit Cole
LAA
AL
155
21
1.22
0.5
1.438
44
32
0.4
Pud Galvin
LAA
AL
130
24
1.66
1.3
1.149
31
39
-0.7
Bump Hadley
SFS
AL
164
30
1.65
-0.3
.996
62
34
0.5
Walter Johnson
POR
AL
189
19
0.91
4.8
1.217
28
61
0.3
José Méndez
MCG
AL
200
20
0.90
4.4
1.086
43
56
-0.7
Stubby Overmire
MEM
AL
175
21
1.08
2.2
.853
16
63
-0.0
Gaylord Perry
NYG
NL
185
31
1.51
-0.3
.996
35
29
0.7
Toad Ramsey
HOU
NL
196
18
0.78
1.0
.913
42
41
-0.5
Bob Rush
HOD
NL
156
26
1.44
3.3
.996
19
63
0.0
Jack Taylor
HOD
NL
163
19
1.05
5.6
.996
41
63
0.0
Doc White
IND
NL
130
8
0.55
1.8
.996
18
50
1.9
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency; SBA = Stolen Bases Attempted; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; FRM = Framing Runs
Who knows? Small sample sizes are rough, although it is nice to see last year’s winner, Jack Taylor, make a return appearance.
Taylor makes a lot of plays, and is very hard to run on, both of which count for quite a bit. I think an argument could be made for Pud Galvin, as well as for Taylor’s teammate, Bob Rush, but I would expect a fair bit of this to change over the final month of the season.
Roy Oswalt fanned 14, but took the loss in a 7-2 defeat by the House of David. Neither Oswalt’s heroics nor Tony Gwynn‘s 4 hits could help Houston, who still maintain a 1 game lead in the Marvin Miller Division.
Travis Jackson, Will Smith, and Jackie Warner were recalled to fill out the Colt 45’s bench.
George Brett went deep twice and Warner hit one out in his first WBL at bat as Houston topped Indianapolis, 11-6.
Wow. Gorman Thomas and Paul Goldschmidteach hit 3 homeruns as Houston topped Indianapolis, 12-7. Roger Clemens wasn’t great, but he did whiff 10 en route to improving his record to 15-9.
#Indianapolis ABC’s
Luis Padrón won his 19th game of the year, striking out 10 as the ABC’s topped Homestead, 3-2. Padrón struggled some, but Indianapolis’ bullpen came through with 3 solid innings of relief, including Rob Dibble‘s 19th save of the season, to nail down the victory.
Johnny Bench went deep twice, leading the ABC’s to an 8-2 win over Homestead. Then Joey Votto did the same, hitting 2 out and reaching 30 on the season as the ABC’s topped Houston, 7-5.
Bob Bescher swiped 5 bases, but the ABC’s couldn’t overcome 6 homeruns by Houston in a 12-7 loss.
#Kansas City Monarchs
Albert Pujols hit 2 out to reach 33 on the season, but the Monarchs’ bullpen couldn’t hold a lead and Kansas City fell to Philadelphia, 8-7.
After the game, Dale Murphy suffered a mysterious burn on his arm, and will miss about a week. Sam Mongin was recalled to provide some depth in the middle infield.
José Rijo delivered another gem, this one a 2 hit shutout of Philadelphia. Rijo walked 2 and fanned 6 in the 3-0 win, getting all the support he needed from 3 solo homeruns–2 from Boog Powell and 1 from Robinson Canó.
#Wandering House of David
Both Richie Hebner and Ernie Banks went deep twice, leading the House of David to an 11-4 win over Birmingham.
We’ll preview the All Star selections, so this will be a bit of a longer entry.
#Awards
Lots of awards, as we moved into a new month!
First, the smaller ones. Houston‘s Jeff Bagwell was the National League Player of the Week, hitting .409 with 5 homeruns while Eric Davis of the juggernaut New York Black Yankees was the American League Player of the Week, hitting .481 with 5 homers in the same span.
In the monthly awards, the American League Rookie of the Month for June was San Francisco‘s Turkey Stearnes, who hit .378 with 11 homeruns in the month.
Kansas City‘s A. Rube Foster was both the National League Rookie of the Month and the NL Pitcher of the Month, going 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA, as the young hurler announced himself as, at least so far, a premier WBL starter. The American League Pitcher of the Month was Bump Hadley, Stearnes’ teammate in San Francisco. Hadley was 5-0 in June with a 2.66 ERA.
Ottawa‘s star backstop, Gary Carter, was the National League Batter of the Month, hitting .397 with 14 homeruns in June while in the American League, unsurprisingly, the award went to the stellar Ty Cobb. The Detroit OF hit .408 with 11 homers in June, which actually brought his overall average down in that span (Cobb is leading the WBL in BA at .418).
#Team Performance
Yawn.
The Black Yankees and the Sea Lions continue to be the 2 best teams in the league, leading their divisions by 5 and 11 games respectively.
The Effa Manley Division might offer some excitement in the second half, as Brooklyn still leads Homestead by 4 and the New York Gothams by 5.5. But the only true race is in the Marvin Miller Division, where Kansas City has overtaken Indianapolis, now leading the ABC’s by 2.5 games.
The Houston Colt 45’s are 8-2 over their last 10 games, but still sit 5 games under .500. Detroit and Philadelphia are moving in the other direction, with each team managing only 2 wins in their last 10 contests.
Birmingham still has the worst record in the league, but they have moved over .400, sitting at .410 (34-49).
#Player Performance
Batters
It’s still Ty Cobb’s world, although Babe Ruth is doing Babe Ruth things, and reached the 40 homerun plateau during the last week.
José Canseco (MCG). 254/375/734. 36 HR. Oscar Charleston (IND). 336/386/642. 103 H, 9 3B. Ty Cobb (DET). 416/464/885. 116 H, 37 2B, 8 3B, 5.8 WAR. Josh Gibson (HOM). 392/481/748. 5.1 WAR. Tony Gwynn (HOU). 389/425/601. 116 H. Pete Hill (HOU). 291/371/487. 10 3B. Joe Jackson (CAG). 356/398/588. 103 H, 39 2B. Stan Musial (KCM). 329/392/573. 37 2B. Babe Ruth (NYY). 292/426/775. 40 HR, 90 RBI, 82 R, 68 BB, 5.0 WAR. Larry Walker (OTT). 293/369/721. 36 HR, 85 RBI.
Rickey Henderson (San Francisco) and Tim Raines (Ottawa) continue to be 1-2 in the league in steals, but it’s getting closer, with Henderson’s edge now 60 to 53.
Pitchers
Starters
While his performance has been somewhat below par, the New York Gothams’ Christy Mathewson continues to be definition of workhorse, leading the WBL with 20 starts, 2 ahead of a bevy of hurlers with 18.
7 pitchers have reached double-digits in wins, with Luis Padrón (Indianapolis) leading the way at 11-2. All 7 are included below. Houston’s Toad Ramsey was so dominant for so long, he is still the top starter in the league despite a recent dip in form, but I would probably choose Lefty Grove of San Francisco or the emergent A. Rube Foster.
Frank Castillo (KCM). 10-1, 4.22. A. Rube Foster (KCM). 5-1, 2.30. .203 BABIP, 0.98 WHIP, 3.70 FIP. Lefty Grove (SFS). 10-4, 3.71. 126 IP, 132 K, 3.1 WAR. Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-4, 3.86. 143 K, 3.80 FIP, 3.2 WAR. Bump Hadley (SFS). 11-4, 4.21, 3.50 FIP, 3.0 WAR. Orel Hershiser (BRK). 10-4, 3.87. Luis Padrón (IND). 11-2, 4.21. 3.57 FIP, 3.3 WAR. Eddie Plank (SFS). 11-3, 3.54. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 11-4, 2.77. 124 IP, 152 K, 0.89 WHIP, 2.80 FIP, 5.2 WAR. Ed Walsh (CAG). 6-3, 3.41. 1 Sv, .201 BABIP. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 7-7, 3.41. 3.66 FIP, 3.4 WAR.
Relievers
We’ve listed the top 3 leaders in saves, all 5 of the relievers who have reached double digits in Holds, as well as all 5 with an ERA below 2.00.
18 IP minimum.
Rod Beck (SFS). 3-2, 3.47. 21 Sv. Rheal Cormier (NYY). 0-2, 6.03. 11 H. Eric Gagne (BRK). 1-1, 2.92. 19 Sv. Ken Howell (SFS). 4-1, 1.72. 1 Sv, 4 H. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-4, 4.13. 1 Sv, 10 H. Brad Kilby (PHI). 1-2, 4.39. 2 Sv, 10 H. Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 2-1, 1.14. 2 Sv, 11 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 4-2, 3.45. 20 Sv. Rob Murphy (IND). 1-3, 3.75. 1 Sv, 11 H. Robb Nen (NYG). 3-2, 1.95. 9 Sv, 6 H. Ron Robinson (SFS). 1-0, 1.64. 3 Sv, 3 H. BJ Ryan (OTT). 1-2, 4.15. 1 Sv, 10 H. Harley Young (BBB). 1-0, 1.23. 3 Sv, 5 H.
#Injury Report
Portland lost half of their backstop platoon as AJ Pierzynski will be out for close to a month. News was worse for Ottawa, as SP Bob Moose is out for close to a year.
Houston’s Casey Stengel and Kansas City’s Lou Brock are awaiting diagnosis on their current injuries.
Baltimore’s Bobby Wallace, Detroit’s Billy Hoeft, and the Black Yankees’ Dave Righetti should all begin rehab assignments this week.
#The All Star Candidates
We’ll look at these by position, mixing the two leagues for the time being.
For each position, we’ve included as many players as it takes to have at least 3-4 candidates from each league, highlighting some pretty severe disparities in talent between the AL and the NL.
If players don’t qualify for the batting stats, their playing time is noted, as are some other potentially influencing factors. This indicates a leader at that position among the players listed (but not necessarily overall).
Each league can only select 32 players for the All Star Game itself (usually 20 or 21 position players and 11 or 12 pitchers), so quite a few of the players listed here will be left on the outside looking in.
#C
The NL dominates here, with 3 catchers with an OPS over 1.000. That means some worthy candidates–most notably NYG’s Buster Posey –are likely to miss out.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Josh Gibson
HOM / NL
1.229
5.1 WAR; 67 RBI
3.1 FRM
Gary Carter
OTT /NL
1.073
28 HR
47.1 RTO%
Mike Piazza
BRK / NL
1.042
29 HR; 65 RBI
4.87 CERA
Ed Bailey
DET / AL
.972
57 G/216 PA; 43.6 RTO%
Jim Pagliaroni
BBB / NL
.925
61 G/231 PA
Mickey Cochrane
SFS / AL
.917
10 SB; 4.39 CERA
Ted Simmons
KCM / NL
.900
63 G/256 PA; 4.15 CERA
Buster Posey
NYG / NL
.870
3.8 FRM
Joe Mauer
POR / AL
.856
14 SB
Curt Blefary
BAL /AL
.826
Carlton Fisk
CAG / AL
.800
67 G/254 PA; 11 SB
FRM = Framing Runs | RTO% = Runners Thrown Out | CERA = Catcher ERA
The other stalwart defensive catchers–Miami‘s Iván Rodríguez and Indianapolis’ Johnny Bench–just haven’t hit enough, although a late surge by Bench has moved him up these lists.
I don’t think there is any question in the NL, where it’s Gibson, Carter, and Piazza. Cochrane and Mauer should be in for the AL, with a question of whether you go with Bailey’s bat in more limited appearances or Blefary. Should the NL decide to carry 4 backstops, the choice between Pagliaroni and Simmons (and, perhaps, Posey) is close.
Gibson and Cochrane should be the starters.
#1B
The AL has a slight edge here, but there’s a lot of talent throughout.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Lou Gehrig
NYY / AL
1.057
28 HR; 21 2B; 65 RBI
.995 Fldg
Will Clark
NYG / NL
1.006
Frank Thomas
CAG / AL
1.004
Hank Greenberg
DET / AL
.991
26 HR
.998 Fldg; 3.1 ZR
Mike Epstein
HOM / NL
.965
Anthony Rizzo
HOD / NL
.964
Lance Berkman
CLE / AL
.957
Jim Thome
MCG / AL
.927
28 HR; 64 RBI
Jeff Bagwell
HOU / NL
.923
66 RBI
.995 Fldg
Boog Powell
KCM / NL
.920
.995 Fldg; 9.23 RF; 2.9 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Gehrig and Clark are almost certainly the starters, and the AL will likely take Thomas and Greenberg as well. In the NL, it gets a little trickier, as Powell (along with Greenberg) is one of the better 1B defensively. Epstein’s offense will carry him, but after that my guess is Rizzo gets the selection (but cannot participate via injury), and is replaced by Powell, with Bagwell having a legitimate complaint.
#2B
The NL is ridiculously stacked in terms of offensive-minded 2B.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Joe Morgan
IND / NL
1.088
47 G/199 PA
Roberto Alomar
OTT/ NL
1.008
21 2B; 18 HR; 64 RBI; 31 SB; 3.5 WAR
Ryne Sandberg
HOD / NL
.995
28 HR; 60 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.997 Fldg; 5.00 RF
Jackie Robinson
BRK / NL
.938
Rogers Hornsby
POR / AL
.919
53 G/234 PA
Charlie Gehringer
DET / AL
.876
57 G/225 PA; .989 Fldg; 5.09 RF
Eddie Collins
CAG / AL
.850
36 SB
Bobby Grich
LAA / AL
.845
15 HR
Craig Biggio
HOU / NL
.841
Chase Utley
PHI / NL
.781
4.92 RF; 9.3 ZR
Cookie Rojas
MCG / AL
.766
27 2B
.987 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Joe Morgan is included just for interest–he missed too much time to injury to warrant serious consideration. Detroit’s Charlie Gehringer, on the other hand, probably makes the cut, despite starting the season in the minors.
In the NL, it’s pretty clear: Alomar, Sandberg, and Robinson, with the starter being decided between Sandberg and Alomar over the next week. The AL is trickier, but I think it ends up going according to form: Eddie Collins to start, with Gehringer and Hornsby behind him.
#SS
It’s pretty impressive there are this many shortstops that can hit, and Ernie Banks‘ production is incredible.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ernie Banks
HOD/ NL
.978
30 HR; 71 RBI
Cal Ripken, Jr.
BAL / AL
.967
39 G/140 PA; .993 Fldg; 4.90 RF
Carlos Correa
HOU/ NL
.929
18 2B; 2.8 WAR
Arky Vaughan
CLE / AL
.887
19 2B; 2.4 WAR
6.3 ZR
Álex Rodríguez
OTT / NL
.885
23 HR
Robin Yount
MCG / AL
.845
15 HR
5.8 ZR
Jim Fregosi
POR / AL
.793
Dick Lundy
SFS / AL
.783
7 3B; 2.1 WAR; 33 SB
Derek Jeter
NYY / AL
.762
Dobie Moore
MEM / AL
.750
22 SB
.983 Fldg
Ozzie Smith
KCM / NL
.672
19 2B; 25 SB
.994 Fldg; 6.3 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Ripken, Jr. is really not a serious contender, but he has been impressive in the 40 G’s he’s played. That gives us Banks, Correa, and Rodríguez in the NL and Vaughan, Yount, and either Fregosi or Lundy in the AL.
Smith is included because of his superlative defense, but doesn’t probably make the cut.
This is an interesting position: Vaughan and Rodríguez changed teams in the off season, and Correa’s performance has been a bit of a shock.
#3B
The top 5 are locks, beyond that, it gets much trickier, especially in the NL.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Albert Pujols
KCM / NL
1.046
32 2B; 60 RBI; 2.8 WAR
Ron Cey
BRK / NL
.967
2.4 WAR
.976 Fldg; 3.3 ZR
Gary Sheffield
MCG/ AL
.929
22 HR; 55 RBI; 15 SB
Evan Longoria
CLE / AL
.926
2.2 ZR
Mike Schmidt
NYY / AL
.926
23 HR; 55 RBI
2.59 RF
Scott Rolen
PHI / NL
.922
2.1 WAR
.974 Fldg; 2.7 ZR
Ron Santo
HOD /NL
.906
52 G/192 PA
Eddie Mathews
BBB / NL
.904
24 HR
.978 Fldg; 2.66 RF
Wade Boggs
MEM / AL
.896
26 2B
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
After Pujols and Cey, it’s hard in the NL. Matthews and Rolen edge ahead of Santo due to defense and Santo’s relative low usage, but picking between the two of them is very challenging, to the point the NL may go with 4 players at the hot corner.
#OF
All of the OF spots are a bit combined in the end, but we’re keeping them separate for the sake of comparison.
#LF
When Detroit’s Ty Cobb plays the OF, he plays here as well, making the AL selections pretty simple.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Babe Ruth
NYY / AL
1.201
40 HR; 90 RBI; 5.0 WAR
.988 Fldg; 5.1 ZR
Ted Williams
MEM / AL
1.063
23 2B; 65 RBI
Frank Robinson
BAL / AL
1.035
24 HR; 64 RBI; 2.3 WAR
1.000 Fldg
Adam Dunn
IND / NL
.906
24 HR
.989 Fldg; 3.41 RF
Roy White
BRK / NL
.866
Oscar Gamble
DET / AL
.852
Rickey Henderson
SFS / AL
.840
2.8 WAR; 60 SB
7.2 ZR
Tim Raines
OTT / NL
.773
7 3B; 53 SB
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
So, Ruth, Williams, and Robinson are in, and perhaps Henderson’s 60+ SB warrant a spot. In the NL, it’s more challenging. Dunn seems to be a lock, and White is a bit of a sentimental choice. It may be just those 2 from this group.
#CF
Tris Speaker, as despicable of a human being as he is, is the best in the AL right now, especially considering the defensive contribution. Over in the NL, Willie Mays probably edges Oscar Charleston as the starter.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Rick Monday
OTT /NL
1.172
41 G/136 PA
Tris Speaker
CLE / AL
1.088
31 2B; 4.0 WAR
2.68 RF; 5.1 ZR; 6 Kills
Turkey Stearnes
SFS / AL
1.065
7 3B; 24 HR
Eric Davis
NYY / AL
1.058
26 SB
41 G/188 PA; 1.000 Fldg
Julio Rodríguez
MCG / AL
1.052
39 G/177 PA
Oscar Charleston
IND / NL
1.027
9 3B; 60 RBI; 24 SB
Willie Mays
NYG / NL
.977
31 HR; 62 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.990 Fldg; 2.70 RF; 7.7 ZR
Mike Trout
LAA / AL
.965
24 2B; 2.8 WAR; 21 SB
1.000 Fldg
Carlos Beltrán
OTT / NL
.916
63 RBI; 21 SB
Alejandro Oms
MCG / AL
.883
5 3B
6.3 ZR
Curtis Granderson
BBB / NL
.876
26 HR
3.01 RF
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Monday, Davis, and Rodríguez aren’t really in contention, but their performances in limited action have been pretty spectacular.
Speaker, Stearnes, and Trout are pretty much locks in the AL, with Oms being a hard luck case. Beltrán deserves the spot behind Mays and Charleston.
#RF
A deep, deep group, probably 4 deep in each league.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
José Canseco
MCG / AL
1.109
36 HR
Larry Walker
OTT / NL
1.090
36 HR; 85 RBI; 22.4 WAR
3.89 RF
Reggie Jackson
SFS / AL
1.027
63 RBI; 2.8 WAR; 24 SB
Tony Gwynn
HOU / NL
1.026
6 3B; 24 2B; 2.8 WAR
Aaron Judge
PHI / NL
.994
.992 Fldg
Mickey Mantle
NYY / AL
.993
30 HR; 76 RBI
Joe Jackson
CAG /AL
.986
39 2B; 27 SB
Stan Musial
KCM / NL
.964
37 2B
5.5 ZR
Johnny Callison
NYG / NL
.945
.993 Fldg
Mookie Betts
MEM / AL
.865
24 2B
1.000 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Canseco, Mantle, and the 2 Jacksons seem locks in the AL, with Walker, Gwynn, and Judge in the NL. It’s possible Musial misses the cut, as ridiculous as that sounds.
#DH
The pressure here is immense, given the competition for the other OF spots.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ty Cobb
DET / AL
1.350
37 2B; 8 3B; 26 HR; 73 RBI; 5.8 WAR; 31 SB
Kal Daniels
LAA / AL
1.023
21 2B; 2.3 WAR; 30 SB
Manny Ramírez
MEM / AL
.986
56 G/224 PA
Ryan Braun
MCG/ AL
.982
31 HR
Willie Stargell
HOM / NL
.980
27 HR
Gavvy Cravath
BAL / AL
.926
22 2B; 69 RBI
Benny Kauff
NYG / NL
.909
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Cobb is, of course, a lock, and it would be hard to keep Daniels off the roster. Beyond that, though, it gets difficult to justify a pure DH, although Braun, Stargell, and Cravath all have decent arguments.
#P
Pitching is, of course, a constant crapshoot, and a lot could change in the outings this week.
All pitchers are sorted by ERA.
#SP
This list has everyone with an ERA under 4.00 or 10 or more wins.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Toad Ramsey
HOU / NL
11-4, 2.77
152 K; 0.89 WHIP; 5.2 WAR; 2.80 FIP
71% QS; 5 CG; 2 SHO; 2.34 SIERA; 1.7 WPA
Doc Gooden
LAA / AL
7-5, 3.17
Hardie Henderson
PHI/ NL
9-6, 3.18
Smokey Joe Williams
BRK / NL
7-7, 3.41
3.4 WAR
Ed Walsh
CAG / AL
6-3, 3.41
1.06 WHIP
Eddie Plank
SFS / AL
11-3, 3.54
Roger Clemens
HOU / NL
9-4, 3.71
65% QS
Lefty Grove
SFS / AL
10-4, 3.71
132 K
4 CG; 3 SHO; 2.87 SIERA
Johnny Cueto
IND / NL
8-4, 3.75
67% QS
Rube Foster
IND / NL
6-4, 3.80
Ron Guidry
NYY / AL
8-4, 3.86
143 K
2.58 SIERA
Orel Hershiser
BRK / NL
10-4, 3.87
Brett Anderson
LAA / AL
7-2, 3.91
1.06 WHIP
Andy Pettitte
NYY / AL
9-5, 4.05
Bump Hadley
SFS / AL
11-4, 4.21
3.50 FIP
Luis Padrón
IND / NL
11-2, 4.21
3.3 WA; 3.57 FIP
Frank Castillo
KCM / NL
10-1, 4.22
3 CG; 2 SHO
José Méndez
MCG / AL
6-4, 4.45
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Right now, I would guess the starting matchup is Toad Ramsey for the NL and Eddie Plank for the AL.
Beyond that, in the AL, I see Gooden, Walsh, and Grove as easy picks. Guidry is likely in as well, leaving Anderson and Hadley on the bubble.
The NL is much harder to figure out. Henderson, Hershiser, Padrón, and Castillo feel like they deserve selections, with Williams having a very strong case as well. That would leave some excellent performances–Clemens and Cueto especially–on the outside looking in.
#Swingmen / Long Relivers
These are players who are either swing starters or have seen more innings than the finishers below. As is often the case, there are a few folks here who, for whatever the reason, took a while to be inserted into the rotation.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
A. Rube Foster
KCM/ NL
5-1, 2.30
0.98 WHIP
7 GS; 90 IP; 86% QS; 2 SHO; 1.0 WPA
Jim Whitney
BBB / NL
4-2, 3.26
1 Sv; 2 H; 1.03 WHIP
11 GS; 94 IP; 73% QS; 1.9 WPA
Tom Brewer
SFS / AL
0-1, 2.33
1 Sv; 2 H
2 GS; 27 IP
Fernando Valenzuela
BRK / NL
5-0, 2.37
1 Sv; 4 H; 0.96 WHIP
1 GS; 60 IP; 1.0 WPA
Rheal Cormier
NYY / AL
0-2, 6.03
11 H
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Foster and Valenzuela seem clear selections, with Brewer and Cormier missing the cut and Whitney being on the bubble.
#Closers & Setups
20 IP Minimum, with a possible exception for Brian Wilson of the New York Gothams.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Brian Wilson
NYG/ NL
1-0, 1.08
11 Sv
17 IP
Craig Kimbrel
KCM / NL
2-1, 1.14
2 Sv; 11 H; 0.89 WHIP
15 SD; 5.6 IRS%; 2.90 SIERA; 2.0 WPA
Harley Young
BBB / NL
1-0, 1.23
3 Sv; 5 H
Ron Robinson
SFS / AL
1-0, 1.64
3 Sv; 3 H
Ken Howell
SFS / AL
4-1, 1.72
1 Sv; 4 H
Robb Nen
NYG / NL
3-2, 1.95
9 Sv; 6 H
Eddie Guardado
KCM / NL
2-1, 2.08
1 Sv; 5 H
2.92 SIERA
Tug McGraw
HOU / NL
3-3, 2.16
7 Sv
Ross Reynolds
LAA / AL
2-0, 2.19
1 Sv; 1 H
Goose Gossage
NYY / AL
2-3, 2.32
9 Sv; 8 H
.90 Sv%
Lee Smith
HOD / NL
4-1, 2.73
5 Sv; 6 H; 0.73 WHIP
Eric Gagne
BRK / NL
1-1, 2.92
19 Sv
17 SD
Justin Hampson
BAL / AL
0-0, 3.00
7 H; 0.95 WHIP
Terry Adams
CLE / AL
1-2, 3.18
15 Sv; 2 H
.94 Sv%
Josh Lindblom
HOM / NL
4-2, 3.45
20 Sv
.95 Sv%; 16 SD; 1.3 WPA
Rod Beck
SFS / AL
3-2, 3.47
21 Sv; 0.73 WHIP
15 SD
Rob Murphy
IND / NL
1-3, 3.75
1 Sv; 11 H
Michael Jackson
HOM / NL
1-4, 4.13
1 Sv; 10 H
BJ Ryan
OTT / NL
1-2, 4.15
1 Sv; 10 H
Brad Kilby
PHI / NL
1-2, 4.39
2 Sv; 10 H
2.73 SIERA
Rob Dibble
IND / NL
2-2, 5.25
16 Sv
Jeff Pfeffer
KCM / NL
1-3, 5.61
16 Sv
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
A difficult set of choices for sure. Of the true closers, Gagne, Lindblom, and Beck seem locks, with Kimbrel, Young, Howell, Nen, McGraw, Gossage, and Smith deserving nods as well.
That would give the NL 7 selections, likely keeping Wilson from making the team. It would also give the AL only 3, opening the door for Adams and even Reynolds or Hampson.
Today, we’ll check in on last year’s all stars from the National League, and next week review the candidates for this year’s midseason classic.
#Awards
Baltimore is starting to make some noise, led by Frank Robinson, who was the AL Player of the Week after hitting .409 with 3 homeruns. Boog Powell of the Kansas City Monarchs hit .522 with 4 homers, earning honors over in the NL.
#Team Performance
Other than a bit of separation in the Effa Manley Division, not a lot has changed.
The New York Black Yankees still lead the Bill James Division, but Cleveland has closed to within 4. San Francisco, tied with the Black Yankees for the best record in the league, is beginning to run away with the Cum Posey Division, leading Chicago (the only 2nd place team under .500) by 9.5 games.
Brooklyn tops the Effa Manley Division, but it’s still tight, with Homestead 2 and the New York Gothams 3.5 games back. A 2-8 record in their last 10 games has dropped Ottawa 7.5 games behind.
Finally, the Indianapolis ABC’s and the Kansas City Monarchs are in a dead heat in the Marvin Miller Division.
The Birmingham Black Barons retain the dubious honor of having the worst record in the league at 30-46.
#Player Performance
Batters
Detroit‘s Ty Cobb had fallen under .400, but a torrid streak has him back on top of the league in batting average at .409, edging in front of Houston‘s Tony Gwynn who sits at .404.
Cobb’s performance really deserves some attention: it’s not just the .409 average, it’s the league leading .861 SLG, driven by 36 doubles and 23 homers. He’s clearly the best hitter in the league so far, although Detroit’s overall performance may reduce his standing in the MVP race.
Roberto Alomar (OTT). 324/405/617. 67 R. José Canseco (MCG). 256/374/740. 33 HR. Oscar Charleston (IND). 330/381/642. 9 3B. Ty Cobb (DET). 409/460/861. 106 H, 36 2B, 5.1 WAR. Josh Gibson (HOM). 391/471/744. 4.7 WAR. Tony Gwynn (HOU). 404/436/632. 110 H. Pete Hill (HOU). 280/366/477. 9 3B. Joe Jackson (CAG). 372/416/613. 36 2B. Stan Musial (KCM). 329/392/573. 37 2B. Babe Ruth (NYY). 293/417/759. 36 HR, 85 RBI, 73 R. Larry Walker (OTT). 296/369/727. 33 HR, 77 RBI.
Rickey Henderson (San Francisco) and Tim Raines (Ottawa) continue to be 1-2 in the league in steals, 55 to 46.
Two batters (Indianapolis’ Adam Dunn and the Black Yankees’ Mickey Mantle) have struck out over 100 times, but with 16 others already over 80, they won’t be alone in the century club for long.
Pitchers
Starters
Indianapolis’ Luis Padrón continues to lead the league in wins with 11. The three other starters with double-digit wins are also included below.
Two interesting newer names here: Rube Foster (Andrew Rube, not Rube) has just been impossible to hit, and now that he is safely over the IP threshold to qualify, it will be interesting to see how long he stays on the leaderboards. Brooklyn‘s Smokey Joe Williams has pitched excellently, despite a sub .500 record to show for it.
A. Rube Foster (KCM). 5-0, 2.22. 0.89 WHIP. Lefty Grove (SFS). 8-4, 3.54. 114 IP. Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-4, 3.77. 136 K, 3.1 WAR. Bump Hadley (SFS). 10-4, 4.34. 3.49 FIP. Luis Padrón (IND). 11-2, 4.22. Eddie Plank (SFS). 10-3, 3.57. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 10-4, 2.87. 116 IP, 145 K, 0.90 WHIP, 2.72 FIP, 5.0 WAR. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 6-7, 3.29. 3.1 WAR.
Relievers
We’ve listed the top 3 relievers in saves. We’re getting some separation here, but it’s still hard to really point to anyone–other than Kansas City’s Craig Kimbrel–as being lights-out dominant.
17 IP minimum.
Rod Beck (SFS). 3-2, 3.80. 19 Sv. Eric Gagne (BRK). 1-1, 3.18. 17 Sv. Ken Howell (SFS). 4-1, 1.32. 1 Sv, 4 H. Bob Howry (PHI). 3-1, 3.60. 10 Sv, 0.775 WHIP. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-3, 3.62. 1 Sv, 10 H. Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 1-1, 1.31. 2 Sv, 10 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 4-2, 3.45. 20 Sv. Rob Murphy (IND). 1-1, 3.09. 1 Sv, 11 H. Lee Smith (HOD). 4-1, 2.97. 3 Sv, 6 H, 0.73 WHIP.
#Injury Report
The biggest injury to hit in a while is Kansas City’s Stan Musial, who will miss about a week.
Homestead’s Owen Wilson, Memphis‘ Skel Roach, and Miami‘s Al Oliver are all due to start rehab assignments this week.
#Last Year’s NL All-Stars
As we ramp up to this year’s all-star game, seemed a good time to check in on last year’s designees. This week, we’ll take a look at (what was last year) the AL.
#OBV
Rod Beck (SFS). Second in the league in saves, despite some rough other numbers. Should be enough.
José Canseco (MCG). A .256 average ain’t great … but 33 homers and a nearly 1.100 OPS is.
Lou Gehrig (NYY). A borderline choice last year, Gerhig has upped the power a notch this year.
Josh Gibson (HOM). Gibson has blossomed this year with an OPS over 1.200. He’s probably the best backstop in the WBL at 21 years old.
Lefty Grove (SFS). Doing even better than last season.
Ken Howell (SFS). Continues to be dominant in a support role.
Joe Mauer (POR). Mauer has a 302/383/502 slash line. Nuff said.
Scott Rolen (PHI). Rolen continues to deliver for the Stars.
Babe Ruth (NYY). Still leading the league in key categories, most notably HR and RBI.
#Mebbe
Terry Adams (CLE). A decent shot, sitting 5th in the league in saves with solid peripheral numbers.
Johnny Bench (IND). Bench was probably the best C in the league last season; this year he’s picked it up as of late, but still has fallen far short of last year’s levels.
Ron Blomberg (CLE). 1B is so hard … Blomberg has 27 homers and an OPS just shy of 1.000, yet may not make the midsummer classic.
Mike Epstein (HOM). See Blomberg above. Epstein has an OBP near .400 and a SLG near .600, and may be on the fringes as well.
Jim Fregosi (POR). Is an .800 OPS enough at SS? Maybe …
Rickey Henderson (SFS). A borderline choice last year as well … but a .400 OBP and over 50 SBs at the season midpoint is compelling.
Reggie Jackson (SFS). Jackson is no longer threatening the triple crown, but he’s still sporting an OPS of about .980. So mebbe.
Mickey Mantle (NYY). Mantle has an OPS just over 1.000, but the CF contenders are pretty thick. So we’ll see if it gets him in.
#Meh
Kent Hrbek (POR). A fringe MVP candidate last year, Hrbek has fallen to the ranks of the thoroughly average this year.
Derek Jeter (NYY). Jeter has more power this year, but is hitting under .250, moving him behind other contenders.
Thurman Munson (NYY). Munson may belong in the level below, having fallen dramatically from last year’s heights.
Bobby Murcer (POR). Murcer hasn’t been bad, with a 262/327/496 slash line. But it’s not all star material.
Ron Reed (CLE). Reed is effective this year, but not all-star material.
Cy Young (CLE). Still a workhorse, but not nearly as effective as last season.
#What Happened?
Buddy Bell (POR). Bell has been on fire as of late … which has raised his OPS to a not-so-robust .669.
Don Drysedale (BRK). From one of the better aces in the league to an ERA well over 6.00.
Tom Herr (NYY). Herr rode an all-star first half of last season to a trade to a contender, but has struggled since then, including a .655 OPS this year.
Chuck Knoblauch (CLE). Another hard collapse, with Knoblauch falling to a little below Tom Herr levels.
Charlie Root (DET). Made it as a reliver last year, now a full time starter and being no more than adequate.
#Other
Eric Davis (NYY). Solid, but missed too much time through injury.
Tim Hudson (SFS). Injured, and not doing well when not.
Red Ruffing (NYY). Doing well since his return from injury, but has only gotten a handful of starts.
Johan Santana (POR). No longer in the WBL after a horrifically ineffective return from long-term injury.
John Malarkey replaced Sam Streeter in the rotation for Birmingham.
Jim Whitney had easily his best outing of the year with a 4 hit shutout of Houston. He improved to 3-2 with the 1-0 victory, lowering his ERA to 3.55. Whitney followed that up with a masterful 8+ in a 5-1 win, again over Houston, adding another victory and shaving another 0.20 from his ERA.
#Houston Colt 45’s
Bones Ely heads to AAA with Ice Box Chamberlain coming back up for another stint. Johnny Damon was also sent down and while the Colt 45’s strongly considered recalling Roberto Osuna to help their bullpen, they settled instead on veteran OF Luis Gonzalez.
Toad Ramsey struck out 11 and allowed only 1 hit–that a homerun–in a 4-1 victory over Birmingham. The Colt 45’s scored 4 in the top of the 9th–2 on solo shots from George Brett and Jimmy Wynn and 2 on a double by Pete Hill–to help Ramsey improve to 10-4.
#Indianapolis ABCs
Emil Frisk was returned to AAA as Ed Charles was recalled from his rehab assignment.
Johnny Bench continues to emerge from a season long sense, hitting 2 out in an 8-6 loss to Brooklyn, giving him 17 on the year.
Jake Stenzel will miss about a week, warranting a trip to the DL with Frisk coming back up.
The Only Nolan put in his best start of the year, allowing 1 run in 8 innings and striking out 11 in an 8-2 win over the Gothams.
#Kansas City Monarchs
Boog Powell hit 2 out, but those were the only runs the Monarchs could manage in a 10-2 loss to Homestead.
A. Rube Foster was magnificent, spinning a 2-hit shutout in a 10-0 win over Homestead. Ted Simmons had 3 doubles and Powell and Lou Brock each went deep in the victory.
The Monarchs’ best hitter, Stan Musial, will miss about a week as a strained groin will send him to the DL. Jim King was called up from AAA.
#Wandering House of David
Bruce Sutter and Lee Smith swapped roles, with Smith becoming the designated closer for the House of David.
Ernie Banks went deep twice and drove in 5 as the House of David pounded Ottawa, 15-4. Anthony Rizzo, Joe Harris, and Frank Grant also went deep for the home team.