89 - 73, .549 pct.
2nd in Bill James Division, 1 GB
Won AL WC 4-1 over NYY
Lost in AL Championship 4-0 to SFS
Overall
Cleveland had made the playoffs both WBL seasons, but is still in search of that elusive championship.
And, it’s not clear what’s next: unlike Detroit or the Black Yankees, they lack a young superstar to build around; unlike Brooklyn, they lack the pitching to nonchalantly ignore other concerns. They have talent, for sure, but they also seem at risk of imminent collapse.
So some tinkering is in order, or, at least, some good luck to ensure that some of the young talent continues to develop.
What Went Right
Tris Speaker recovered from injury in a major way, emerging as an elite force at CF, slashing 312/397/631 and scoring 124 runs. Nobody likes him, but he doesn’t care.
Lance Berkman is comfortably home in Cleveland, leading the team with 57 homeruns and finishing with a 1.002 OPS in his first full season with the Spiders. I mean, maybe Berkman and Speaker get along.
Ron Blomberg continues to frustrate his critics, slashing 276/348/640 despite a growing platoon split. Blomberg and Berkman tied for the team lead with 143 RBIs.
At 36, Ed Bailey performed as hoped for after coming over from Detroit. It’s unknown how long that lasts, but a .950 OPS from a catcher is a rare thing.
Larry Doby arrived at last, hitting 41 homeruns and providing a solid presence in RF.
Evan Longoria seized the 3B job, settling an open question for the Spiders with 36 homeruns and 96 RBIs.
Arky Vaughan proved the Spiders were right to trade for him last season, providing an .873 OPS and superlative defense at SS.
And then there’s Willie McCovey. Abandoned by most critics to being a AAA veteran, McCovey seized his WBL chance by the scruff, belting 17 homeruns in 140 PAs and refusing to be kept out of the lineup. How that plays out next season is unknown, and at 33 it’s not clear if this is a single season’s good story or the start of a late career blossoming.
The staff is far less comprehensible.
Bill Steen led the way in WAR, with a 13-10 record and a 4.71 ERA. So perhaps he should be considered the staff ace?
Cy Young led the way in wins with a 15-9 record, but a disappointing 5.38 ERA. So perhaps he should be considered the staff ace?
Bob Feller has the best stuff of the trio, leading to a 13-3 record with a 4.30 ERA in 17 starts, to go along with some impressive bullpen appearances. So perhaps he should be considered the staff ace?
Whomever claims that role, they’ll have decent support form the bullpen, with Terry Adams (23 saves), Cory Gearrin, the impressive debut of Al Smith, Firpo Marberry, and the predicted return of Ron Reed from injury.
Mention should be made of Mel Harder, who posted a 10-4 record and a 4.12 ERA in 10 starts before being injured. Harder should be fully recovered for Spring Training.
ALL STARSTerry AdamsRon BlombergEvan LongoriaTris SpeakerArky Vaughan
MAJOR AWARDSEd Bailey, All AL Team
Johnny Bates, AL LF Gold Glove
Evan Longoria, All AL Team
Arky Vaughan, All AL Team; AL SS Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONSEd Bailey, AL Over 30 Team
Lance Berkman, All AL 2nd Team
Bob Feller, AL 21 & Under Team
Evan Longoria, AL 25 & Under Team
Firpo Marberry, All AL 3rd Team; AL All Rookie 2nd Team
Ron Reed, All AL 3rd Team
Al Smith, All AL 2nd Team
Tris Speaker, All AL 2nd Team; AL All Rounder 3rd Place
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDSTris Speaker, MVP
Bill Steen, Pitcher of the Year
Lance Berkman, Heart & Soul
Evan Longoria, Fan Favorite
Balor Moore, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Kenny Lofton, Minor League Player of the Year
What Went Wrong
Probably the biggest disappointment on the offensive end was Louis Santop. Santop is only 20, so he has time to recover from his sophomore slump, but what a slump it is: slashing 195/238/348 will never cut it. Still, Santop’s slump is what prompted the acquisition of Ed Bailey, so that worked out.
Chuck Knoblauch had a hard year, managing only a .700 OPS with very, very little power.
About 200 PAs were wasted on Jake Stahl and Sammy Strang, neither of which could even hit as poorly as Santop.
Pat Malone was thoroughly mediocre on the mound, and while his 28 starts were somewhat useful, his 5.81 ERA was not.
Really, that’s about it–there were other mediocrities on the roster, and some of the usual poor performances across a few dozen innings, but it was a good year by the Lake.
Transactions
March
None.
July
C Victor Martínez, P Bill Drake & 3rd Round Pick to DET for C Ed Bailey & P Claude Passeau.
It was a lot to give up, especially if Drake develops as expected, but Bailey was great and Passeau has some talent, so it probably works out for both teams.
August
None.
Positional Overview
C
Next season will open with the same arrangement as this one closed: Ed Bailey as the regular, with Louis Santop coming in for defense and for his own development. John Ellis can also play here occasionally.
Tucker Barnhart and Andy Etchebarren offer attractive defensive-minded alternatives in the minors.
1B
Willie McCovey has forced himself into this conversation, which has some domino effects, as it moves Lance Berkman from an everyday 1B, to someone splitting their time between 1B, LF, and DH. Ron Blomberg will be here some times, and young Paul O’Neill could be here as well if he makes the roster.
Further down in the system, Bill Phillips and Earl Torgeson have some talent, and Jake Stahl is still at AAA if needed.
2B
The Spring may determine this: Chuck Knoblauch is still the favorite, but both Steve Sax and Sammy Strang will get at least brief looks.
Brandon Drury may be the best in the system.
SS
This is Jim Fregosi‘s job given his arrival via trade.
There were high hopes for Jimmy Rollins, but it feels like both he and Peckinpaugh have been supplanted by Aparicio in the pecking order. Much is open to be determined this Spring.
3B
This was a mess last year, but Evan Longoria has claimed it as his own. This is really useful, as other than Bob Elliott, the talent that is here (Johnny Hodapp, Aubrey Huff, Justin Turner) is all pretty young.
LF/RF
Johnny Bates won the Gold Glove in LF, and probably hits well enough to stay there, but Berkman will eat into some of his time. Larry Doby seems to have the RF spot locked up.
Paul O’Neill will get a long look in the Spring, and both Alexis Rios and Craig Wilson have some talent as well.
CF
An interesting position: Tris Speaker is the CF, no questions there, but Kenny Lofton may be the best trading chip the Spiders have. Doby and Bates can play here as well, and Gus Bell and Jackie Bradley have some talent behind them.
Lower in the system, both Luis Olmo and Randy Winn may have WBL potential as well.
DH
Berkman and Ron Blomberg, with some help from Willie McCovey.
SP
If everything went well, Cy Young, Bill Steen, and Bob Feller would make a strong front 3, with Firpo Marberry, Mel Harder, and Pat Malone providing whatever support is necessary, along with contributions from Stan Coveleski and Yordano Ventura.
But that all feels very, very optimistic: Young and Feller have the talent to take those roles, the rest are a little more suspect.
There is depth in the system, but little high end talent other than perhaps newcomer Claude Passeau. But the group of Wilbur Cooper, Howard Ehmke, Sudden Sam McDowell, Balor Moore, and Whit Wyatt should offer some support at some point.
RP
Terry Adams is a solid closer, and the trio of Ron Reed, Corey Gearrin, and Al Smith look great (there are questions: Reed is recovering from injury and Smith has to avoid that famed sophomore slump). Beyond that, Billy Muffett may get a look in the Spring.
Toby Borland and Andrew Bailey may be needed here at some point.
87 - 75, .537 pct.
2nd in Effa Manley Division, 12 GB
Lost in NL WC to HOU, 4-1
Overall
What a surprising year in Philadelphia!
This is what decent pitching, solid defense, and some high end lineup slots can do for a club. Drafting the unique talents of Charles Rogan helped, too.
It’s built around Rogan, Scott Rolen, and the radical power of Aaron Judge on offense and Rogan, Hardie Henderson, and Steve Carlton on the mound.
It’s a blueprint, and there is reason for optimism that the Stars could repeat the formula next year.
The optimism comes from the fact that some Stars still have room to grow, especially when you look at how JM Ward and Ray Collins both were far, far better than their results on the mound and the looming presence of Harmon Killebrew at AAA.
The skepticism comes from Ward and Collins being unproven, from the struggles on the IF, and from the age of the squad, especially Rico Carty (who had a solid year) and Ted Kluszewski (who did not).
What Went Right
We’ve got to start with Charles “Bullet Joe” Rogan, a legitimate all-star level talent both on the mound and all over the field (Rogan played a lot of CF, but that had more to do with Willie Davis‘ struggles than anything else). Rogan slashed 308/362/620 in 520 PAs and went 12-9 with a 4.51 ERA on the mound over 30 starts. Just an amazing talent.
Aaron Judge exploded this year, with 63 homeruns and 133 RBIs, making the RF job his from here on out.
Scott Rolen continues to be one of the better 3B in the league, posting a .917 OPS and finishing second on the team with 42 homeruns.
At 38, Rico Carty continues to contribute offensively. He’s slowed down, and the power continues to dwindle, but a mid .800s OPS is serviceable in a reserve player.
Bill Dickey finally seemed to claim the C spot, posting an .827 OPS in 50ish games behind the plate. Hopes are high for his first full season.
At 21, there is time for Sherry Magee to continue to develop, for now, an .800 OPS plus 47 steals is a solid base to build on.
Chase Utley was … good enough … at 2B, flashing elite leather and providing OK offense.
ALL STARSHardie HendersonAaron JudgeCharles Rogan
MAJOR AWARDSWillie Davis, NL CF Gold Glove
Aaron Judge, All NL Team; NL RF Silver Slugger
Charles Rogan, NL Rookie of the Year
Chase Utley, NL 2B Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONSFred Cambria, All NL 3rd Team; NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team
Bill Dickey, NL All Rookie Team
Hardie Henderson, All NL 3rd Team
César Hernández, NL All Rookie Team
Bob Howry, All NL 3rd Team; NL Over 30 Team
Ted Kennedy, NL 23 & Under Team
Brad Kilby, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Sherry Magee, NL 21 & Under Team
Charles Rogan, All NL 3rd Team; NL All Rookie 2nd Team (CF & P)
Scott Rolen, All NL 3rd Team
Jimmy Rollins, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
JM Ward, 21 & Under Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDSCharles Rogan, MVP
Hardie Henderson, Pitcher of the Year
Scott Rolen, Heart & Soul
Charles Rogan, Fan Favorite
Jack Kralick, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Jung Ho Kang, Minor League Player of the Year
What Went Wrong
Catching was a mess until Dickey was recalled–both Sherm Lollar and Mike Scioscia are fine as reserves, but seem overmatched as starters.
The middle infield was a mess all year. César Hernández looked like a solution, but faltered; and Jimmy Rollins was pretty miserable at SS. Eventually, Chase Utley took over, but SS remained a challenge all season.
Ted Kluszewski‘s bat seems to have slowed way down, managing only a 245/289/436 slash line.
Willie Davis earned the Gold Glove in CF, but struggled mightily at the plate, managing only a 233/282/391 slash line. Gold Glove defense can’t make up for that level of offensive performance.
There was a lot of mediocrity, but little that went downright wrong, on the mound. John Burkett and Bill Gatewood struggled in limited innings, but that’s about it. Mark Melancon‘s overall numbers are bad, but he performed quite well with the Stars.
Transactions
March
None.
July
P Larry Jackson to HOD for IF Luis Aparicio, IF Jung Ho Kang & 7th Round Pick.
It’s decent value, but at the same time, another SP would have been useful. Still, Aparicio may have a shot at the SS job and Kang hit very well (he may end up being the epitome of a AAAA player, but he may not).
August
P LaTroy Hawkins, P Dave Stieb, IF Pat Meares, P Jaret Wright, OF Bobby Abreu & 2nd Round Pick to POR for IF Rafael Palmiero, P Mark Melancon, IF Jim Fregosi, & OF Harry Hooper.
This was really 2 deals–the Abreu and Palmiero component is, or should be, pretty much a wash. The rest is interesting: Melancon was bad in Portland and excellent in Philadelphia, Hooper was horrible in Portland and worse in Philadelphia, and Fregosi might–might–solve the Stars’ SS challenge for a few years. They gave up a lot of talent but it’s all potential: if Stieb, Hawkins, and Wright all become rotation starters, it’s too much; if not, it’s a good trade.
OF George Hendrick to BRK for 3rd Round Pick.
Sure. Why not.
Positional Overview
C
Bill Dickey seems to finally be delivering on the promise that led to last year’s trade with the Black Yankees. With him set as the starter, Mike Scioscia is the most likely candidate for the backup role.
There’s not a lot of talent behind him, but perhaps Butch Wynegar or Jerry Grote may have WBL talent.
1B
This is a little uncertain, but the Stars would very much like Harmon Killebrew or Rafael Palmeiro to lay their claim in Spring Training.
Rogan can play here, of course, and both Rico Carty and Ted Kluszewski can be of use here as well.
2B
It feels like Chase Utley did enough to retain his starting spot here, especially considering the Gold Glove. César Hernández will start the season as the utility infielder, but may step in if Utley falters.
There are a couple other interesting options: Jung Ho Kang plays 2B badly, but it is a way to get his bat in the lineup, and both Luis Aparicio and Roger Peckinpaugh can fill in here as well.
SS
This is Jim Fregosi‘s job given his arrival via trade.
There were high hopes for Jimmy Rollins, but it feels like both he and Peckinpaugh have been supplanted by Aparicio in the pecking order. Much is open to be determined this Spring.
3B
No questions here: Scott Rolen all day.
Killebrew and Kang will hopefully do enough to serve as regular relief. Rogan can play here as well, as can JM Ward, although his attempts at contributing offensively have fallen short so far.
LF/RF
RF is set with Aaron Judge, and LF looks more and more like Sherry Magee, at least for now.
There’s some talent in the minors: Buck Freeman, Ed Kirkpatrick, and even the hope that Harry Hooper someday regains his form.
CF
This is a pretty puzzling situation. Willie Davis hit well last year, but collapsed offensively this year. Still, he did win the Gold Glove out there.
This might be Rogan’s most natural position, and of course he had no problem hitting.
And then there’s the upcoming talent, led by Richie Ashburn, but also including Garry Maddox, Elston Howard, and Odúbel Herrera.
DH
The Stars really hope that Killebrew or Kang show up in the Spring. If that doesn’t happen, look for Rico Carty to get the bulk of the appearances.
SP
Hardie Henderson, Charles Rogan, Steve Carlton, and JM Ward are a good quartet for the front of the rotation.
The final spot is open, as are the swing starter positions, with the competition being between Ray Collins, Ted Kennedy (transitioning from the bullpen), Robin Roberts, John Clarkson, Don Newcombe, Bill Gatewood, and perhaps young prospect Pete Alexander.
Mélido Pérez looks like a good future prospect, as does Bill Stearns.
RP
Bob Howry will start as the closer, but at 34 there are some questions about his future. Behind him, though, there are a lot of odd questions: can Mark Melancon finally settled into a franchise (he performed quite well for the Stars at the end of the season)? Can Brad Kilby and Fred Cambria improve on relatively impressive initial seasons? And does Pedro Feliciano belong in the WBL at all?
That’s the group likely to start the year, but we’ll see how that goes.
71 - 91, .438 pct.
5th in Cum Posey Division, 32 GB
Overall
Wow. From first place to a very, very distant last place in a single season.
Portland is a young team with a lot of good talent, but they remain a few years away from really coming together. There are some pieces that are good enough that, if they take leaps forward, could carry the entire team (Walter Johnson and Ken Griffey, Jr come to mind), but the most likely thing is another year of slogging as they figure it out.
Johnson, Griffey, Jr, Joseíto Muñoz, Bert Blyleven, Joe Mauer, and Johan Santana are all 23 or younger, so there is some real hope here.
Most of the issues are on the offensive side, where the Sea Dogs were dead last in most measures and where it was a challenge to find much optimism beyond Kent Hrbek, Mauer, and Griffey Jr.
What Went Right
Those three. Hrbek hit for power and led the team with 96 RBIs; Griffey, Jr had as good a year as good have been hoped for, slashing 292/326/568; and Mauer posted an .823 OPS as an everyday catcher.
The acquisition of Bobby Abreu looks solid, as the young OFer slashed 257/389/527 in a late season callup.
And that’s about it on the offensive side.
The rotation has all the potential in the world, with a front four of Walter Johnson, Walter Ball, Joseíto Muñoz, and Bert Blyleven. Of those, however, only Ball had an actually solid year, and he missed half the season with injuries.
And … yeah … that’s about it.
ALL STARSRogers Hornsby(Subsequently traded)Joe Mauer
MAJOR AWARDSBuddy Bell: AL 3B Gold Glove
Bert Blyleven: AL P Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONSKiki Cuyler: AL Over 30 Team
Ken Griffey, Jr: AL 21 & Under Team
Walter Johnson: AL 21 & Under Team
Joseíto Muñoz: AL 21 & Under Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDSJoe Mauer, MVP
Walter Ball, Pitcher of the Year
Walter Johnson, Heart & Soul
Joseíto Muñoz, Fan Favorite
Joe Coleman, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Chuck Klein, Minor League Player of the Year
What Went Wrong
Bobby Murcer, Gil Hodges, Kiki Cuyler, and Cliff Lee each posted negative WAR’s in over 125 PAs. Hodges managed that while leading the team in homers with 38, which means he did, essentially, nothing else.
The middle infield was a mess for most of the year, with Paul Molitor–who clearly doesn’t belong at 2B–leading a weak group. Hughie Jennings, Eddie Yost, Elvis Andrus, and Willie Randolph all struggled mightily after being given a shot, and it’s all pretty wide open.
The bullpen was a mess all year, with Trevor Hoffman struggling as the closer, John Wetteland being horrible after his acquisition, and a rotating crew of Frank Williams, Elmer Brown, Dick Jones, and a few others being unable to hold their spot.
Dizzy Trout and Jerry Koosman both struggled a bit as starters.
Transactions
March
IF Adrian Beltré, OF Denard Span, P Atlee Hammaker, P Pedro Ramos & 2nd Round Pick to OTT for OF Ken Griffey, Jr. & 4th Round Pick.
It’s a lot to give up, but Griffey, Jr delivered this year. Ultimately, the deal will be judged by the pick and Beltré, but you can’t argue too much against it.
C Iván Rodríguez, P Jon Matlack, OF Adolis García, OF Al Oliver, 1st Round Pick, & 4th Round Pick to MCG for IF Paul Molitor, OF Vladimir Guerrero, C Alan Ashby, & 2nd Round Pick.
This was a blockbuster, but it makes sense: the Sea Dogs were committed to Mauer and the rest was about equaling out potential value. A lot hinges on whether Molitor is able to find a position. With Guerrero still a year or 2 away and the picks involved, it will take a while to evaluate this one.
July
P Mike Cuellar to BAL for P John Wetteland & 4th Round Pick.
Wetteland was so bad after his arrival that this has to be considered a loss at this point.
IF Rogers Hornsby & P Pascual Pérez to NYY for IF Willie Randolph, P Jake Peavy, P Bill Monbouquette, & 1st Round Pick.
Assuming Peavy stays healthy and the Sea Dogs don’t fumble the pick, this is a win given how far away from contention Portland is and Hornsby’s advancing age.
August
IF Rafael Palmiero, P Mark Melancon, IF Jim Fregosi, & OF Harry Hooper to PHI for P LaTroy Hawkins, P Dave Stieb, IF Pat Meares, P Jaret Wright, OF Bobby Abreu, & 2nd Round Pick.
This trade kept getting bigger and bigger, and ended up doing a lot of things at once. Palmiero and Abreu were each blocked in their organizations, so that part makes sense; the rest was a fire sale as Philadelphia cemented their playoff drive. If Stieb and/or Hawkins can deliver at the WBL level, this is probably a win for Portland.
Positional Overview
C
Joe Mauer had better not get hurt … last year it felt like Cliff Lee would be a solid backup, but Lee flopped, and the backup job is up for grabs, with Ernie Krueger having the inside track on it, although Alan Ashby will also be given a look in Spring Training.
1B
Kent Hrbek has this locked down, and while the Sea Dogs wish the big guy would take that slight step forward, he remains a solid choice.
Gil Hodges will be Hrbek’s primary backup unless Portland moves on from him, in which case Mickey Vernon or veteran Don Baylor seem the most likely call-ups.
2B
The question is how long can Portland accept Paul Molitor‘s defensive deficiencies. Assuming it’s a while more, Portland is likely to keep a glove-first option as a backup infielder, likely Wayne Garrett or Tom Satriano or, if they are still just looking for memes, Greg Litton.
SS
The Sea Dogs really wanted Hughie Jennings to make a claim here, but he didn’t, not really. So that opens up some competition with Cobe Jones and Elvis Andrus.
3B
Buddy Bell was quite bad over the first few months, but rebounded well, and remains the favorite here, although Eddie Yost has his supporters in the organization, as does, despite his significant WBL struggles, Miguel Sanó.
LF/RF
Bobby Murcer struggled a bit this year, but remains the incumbent. At the other corner, it’s far more open: Bobby Abreu will get a long look, but Ruben Sierra and the massively disappointing Kiki Cuyler also have a shot, as does, perhaps, young Chuck Klein.
Two 20 year olds are the future here: Vladimir Guerrero and Hugh Duffy need some more time, but are both slated as WBL starters.
CF
This is Ken Griffey, Jr‘s spot. Heck, this is essentially Griffey, Jr’s team, given fellow youngster Walter Johnson‘s comparative reticence.
Gary Pettis will always make an argument as a defensive option, and Lloyd Moseby has some legitimate WBL talent.
DH
I guess this is Gil Hodges, but he really was poor this season. Don Baylor and Ruben Sierra have a chance to make the team here, and maybe it’s actually just where Molitor ends up?
SP
Nothing is more promising or more likely to disappoint than young pitchers, right?
Joseíto Muñoz is 20, Walter Johnson and Bert Blyleven 21, and rookie Walter Ball the old man of the staff at 26. But there is so much talent in those 4, and if either Jake Peavy or Johan Santana can step forward, it has the potential to be as good a rotation as there is in the WBL.
It also has the potential to be profoundly average with long stints on the DL. So.
Dizzy Trout and Joe Coleman are worthwhile as long-term projects as well.
RP
This is ugly. Trevor Hoffman cannot find a decent performance level, John Wetteland was miserable, and the people pulled in for trials–Frank Williams, Elmer Brown, Dick Jones–were equally bad.
Hoffman and Wetteland have elite stuff, but just seem overmatched at this point, They’ll get another year to try, though.
A big draft for the Sea Dogs, with 6 picks in the first 3 rounds. There are a few WBL ready arms, aside from that, the lower end of the farm system could just be upgraded across the board.
The first position fairly evenly distributed between the two leagues, we also have the largest discrepancies so far–there is some excellence here along with some truly miserable performances.
Los Angeles is the only team not represented (Bobby Grich is listed with the 2B, nobody else played enough at SS for the Angels).
#S Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
HOD
Ernie Banks
25
290/314/653
59 HR 126 RBI
-10.9 ZR .930 dEff
WAR would put Carlos Correa and Arky Vaughan here, perhaps even above Ernie Banks. But WAR ain’t everything, and getting the kind of power Banks provides from a SS is very special, even if his defense is not. For me, it’s Banks, and then a cluster of quality in the A Tier.
#A Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
HOU
Carlos Correa
23
318/399/556
25 HR
4.18 RF
AL
BAL
Cal Ripken, Jr
23
279/326/584
32 HR
4.80 RF
AL
CLE
Arky Vaughan
27
294/380/493
31 SB
13.4 ZR 1.091 dEff
These are all surprises: Carlos Correa to be here at all (and only a late season slump kept him from giving Banks a run for his money), Cal Ripken, Jr to be here this quickly, and Arky Vaughan to have blossomed both with the glove and the bat.
Of the three, I would expect Ripken to have the best shot at moving up.
#B Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
SFS
Dick Lundy
22
291/338/450
57 SB
.987 fPct
NL
OTT
Álex Rodríguez
22
252/314/559
46 HR 32 SB
AL
MCG
Robin Yount
26
266/303/505
28 HR 32 SB
This gets a little more complicated. Does Álex Rodríguez‘ offense warrant a nudge up? How about Dick Lundy‘s combination of speed and defense? In the end, they stay here with Robin Yount, who is just as solid as they come across the board. All three of these could move up merely by adding 25 walks a season, but they’re all pretty free swingers.
#C Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
—
POR/ PHI
Jim Fregosi
25
265/344/446
21 SB
4.12 RF -12.3 ZR
NL
HOM
Judy Johnson
18
271/408/454
1.078 dEff
AL
MEM
Dobie Moore
20
291/352/427
26 SB
AL
BAL/ DET
Bobby Wallace
34
282/410/377
.986 fPct 4.73 RF
There is an argument that Dobie Moore and/or Judy Johnson should move up a level, given their offensive output and their age. At the same time, neither played a full season, so it seems prudent to leave them here.
Had Bobby Wallace been healthy all season, he certainly would have warranted a spot in the B Tier for his mix of OBP and defense, while Jim Fregosi seems to barely warrant a slot here, especially considering his shaky defense. But these are all legit starting SS’s in the league, so the C Tier seems about right (although Homestead’s decision about how to structure their infield may move Johnson away from SS).
#D Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
IND
Barry Larkin
23
230/308/404
27 SB
1.074 dEff
NL
BBB
Herman Long
27
243/271/445
24 SB
.962 fPct
NL
KCM
Ozzie Smith
30
235/317/343
64 SB
.992 fPct 12.2 ZR
—
MEM/ BRK
Vern Stephens
29
210/259/414
NL
HOM
Honus Wagner
25
230/285/415
37 SB
.957 fPct .906 dEff
Speaking of Homestead, Honus Wagner may in fact deserve to be knocked down. But he has power, a fair bit of speed, and just so much athleticism. But whether he ends up at 2B, SS, or 3B is yet to be seen.
Ozzie Smith is a hard one to evaluate, as it’s not clear if his defense and speed should move him here, or all the way up to C Tier. In the end, we decided to be conservative in our evaluation of defensive contributions.
#F Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
NYG
Brandon Crawford
30
221/268/381
.966 fPct
AL
NYY
Derek Jeter
33
248/305/439
4.10 RF -19.8 ZR .917 dEff
AL
CAG
Freddy Parent
29
229/270/292
5.01 RF 13.6 ZR
Derek Jeter‘s offense is probably D Tier, but those defensive numbers are quite bad, nudging him down a category. Brandon Crawford may be done entirely, and Freddy Parent, even considering his glovework, is just a massive bust since being obtained by Chicago.
#Rookies
Cal Ripken, Jr. (A Tier), Judy Johnson (C Tier), and Dobie Moore (C Tier).
#Fielding Notes
We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.
Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.
The Stars opted to start Hardie Henderson over Steve Carlton for game 1; for the Colt 45’s there was no question they would turn to Toad Ramsey and his mighty knuckleball.
Sherry Magee continues to be effective as the Stars’ leadoff hitter: here he coaxed a walk from Ramsey, stole 2nd and 3rd, and scored on Jim Fregosi‘s grounder for an early 1-0 lead. It may have been wasted effort, as Aaron Judge hit one into the Crawford Boxes, giving Philadelphia a 2-0 advantage.
It was short-lived: Jim Wynn doubled and scored on a triple from Tony Gwynn. Henderson got 2 outs, but left a sinker up to Paul Goldschmidt, who sent it deep into the seats for a 3-2 edge to Houston after 1 inning.
Ramsey seemed to settle down, but Houston continued its onslaught against Henderson, with George Brett going deep in the 2nd and Goldschmidt, after an error by Scott Rolen put Jeff Bagwell on base, hit his 2nd of the day, making it 6-2.
A single from Pete Hill leading off the 4th chased Henderson, but Robin Roberts escaped the inning without additional damage.
The Stars put runners on 2nd and 3rd (a walk to Chase Utley and a Magee double) with 1 out in the 5th. Ramsey walked in a run, but Philadelphia would be sad not to take greater advantage of the situation. Roberts continued to be effective, and we ended 5 with Houston ahead, 6-3.
Houston got some insurance in the bottom of the 8th as Hill laced a 2 run double, scoring 2 and increasing the score to 8-3.
Philadelphia had their chances, leaving 10 runners on base in the contest, but in the end–in what can only be seen as a good sign for the Colt 45’s–Andrew Chafin, Roberto Osuna, Tug McGraw, and Sparky Lyle combined for 4 scoreless innings in relief of Ramsey.
Goldschmidt was the clear star for Houston, driving in 4, but Carlos Correa and Hill chipped in 2 hits apiece. Magee and Rogan had 2 hits for the Stars.
Philadelphia would turn to Steve Carlton, trying to even out the series against Houston’s Roger Clemens.
Once again Aaron Judge went deep in the opening frame, this time with a solo shot. The Stars scored a second on an RBI single from Rico Carty, meaning, for the 2nd consecutive game, Philadelphia leads 2-0 before Houston comes to bat.
The script diverged there, however briefly: the Colt 45’s cut the deficit in half on a solo shot from Jeff Bagwell in the 2nd. In the 3rd, a leadoff walk to Craig Biggio was followed by a double in the right field corner by Jim Wynn. Tony Gwynn launched a ball to left, forcing a nice diving catch from Sherry Magee, but it was more than enough for Biggio to trot home. But the Colt 45’s weren’t done: Carlos Correa hit an RBI single and then Bagwell launched his 2nd of the game, giving Houston a 5-2 lead.
Carlton lasted 5, Clemens 6, with neither pitching particularly well, turning the game over to the shakiest parts of each bullpen.
Houston seemed to blink first, as John Franco gave up singles to Ted Kluszewski and Bill Dickey to start the 7th. But a pop to short center and a good throw by Jorge Posada to nail Dickey’s attempt to steal second seemed to offer an avenue out. But Franco allowed singles to Magee and Chase Utley, narrowing the lead to 5-4 and fetching Jim Kern from Houston’s bullpen. Kern induced a flyout from Charles Rogan, maintaining the single run advantage for the Colt 45’s.
And this is what Houston had envisioned: Tug McGraw shut it down before yielding to Sparky Lyle to close it out, giving the Colt 45’s a 2-0 edge in the series.
Bagwell’s 2 homeruns were key, of course, but so were Posada’s erasing 2 runners attempting to steal.
It was another game of missed opportunities for Philadelphia, who outhit Houston 11-5 in the contest. 3 of those came from Judge, who is 4-for-8 across the 2 games. The Stars’ bullpen did well, with Brad Kilby, Fred Cambria, and Ted Kennedy combining for 3 frames without giving up a hit.
We head to Philadelphia with something of a must-win game for the Stars, who will turn to the magnificent Charles Rogan, while Houston will counter with Ice Box Chamberlain.
Rogan balked in a run in the top of the first, but escaped a flurry of baserunners without further damage.
Aaron Judge did not hit a homerun in the opening frame, but he did drive in a run with a single, and later scored on a 3-run opposite drive by Jim Fregosi, putting the Stars up 4-1 after 1.
Then both hurlers settled down, and the score was unchanged through 5 innings. Jeff Bagwell took Rogan deep in the 6th, and when that was followed by a walk to Paul Goldschmidt, JM Ward was summoned from the Philadelphia bullpen. Ward retired Pete Hill, and the Stars still led, 4-2.
Judge was not to be denied, hitting one out of the park after Rogan was hit by a pitch. Fregosi followed with his 2nd of the day, chasing Chamberlain who gave up only 4 hits, but 8 runs.
Judge would add another, and Bill Dickey would go deep as well in what turned out to be a bit of walkover, 10-2 in favor of the Stars. Judge drove in 4 and Fregosi 5 on the day as Philadelphia corrected their errors of the first 2 games scoring 10 runs on 6 hits and leaving only a single runner on base.
Game 4 presents challenges for each team’s pitching staffs.
For Houston, Stephen Strasburg‘s solid performances down the stretch earned him the start, while Philadelphia will counter with their ace, Hardie Henderson, fully rested after a very short appearance in game 1.
Henderson started well, but walked 3 batters to start the top of the 2nd. George Brett doubled home 2 runs and another scored on a groundout from Jim O’Rourke. Pete Hill tripled home another run and scored on a sacrifice fly from Paul Goldschmidt, making it 5-0.
Chase Utley took Strasburg deep with Willie Davis on 2nd in the 3rd, closing the gap to 5-2.
A leadoff single from Craig Biggio chased Henderson, bringing in Robin Roberts. Bill Dickey whipped Roberts first strike to first, catching Biggio leaning the wrong way–something that may matter, as Jim Wynn followed with a homerun. Houston now led, 6-2–we’ll see if that extra run comes back to haunt them.
Scott Rolen went deep in the bottom of the 4th. 6-3. Doubles from Dickey and Sherry Magee plated another run in the 5th. 6-4.
But Tony Gwynn singled in 2 runs in the 6th to restore the cushion, making it 8-4, Houston.
A 1 out walk to Rolen in the 6th chased Strasburg after a decent enough effort, but Andrew Chafin was able to escape unscathed. The 7th did not go as well for Chafin, who gave up opening singles to Davis and Utley. In came Jim Kern, who induced a double play from Magee and a sharp grounder to short from Charles Rogan, preserving the lead.
But in the 8th, Jim Fregosi came through with a 2-run shot, cutting the lead in half, 8-6.
Philadelphia’s bullpen sort of imploded in the 9th: Bagwell doubled and scored on a single by Hill, who scored on a double by Goldschmidt. Wynn then drew a bases loaded walk, and Gwynn singled in 2 more runs. The 5 run explosion made it 13-6, Houston.
Philadelphia had some baserunners, but it came to naught, and Houston took a commanding 3-1 lead in the series.
Brett and Gwynn had 3 hits each with Gwynn, now hitting .353 in the series, driving in 4 runs on the day.
The bottom of the Stars’ order came to play, with Dickey, Davis, and Utley each having 2 hits.
Perhaps surprisingly, the first team with a chance to clinch their spot in the Division Series is the Houston Colt 45’s. The stellar Toad Ramsey gets the ball for Houston, while the Stars will turn to Ray Collins.
Jeff Bagwell singled in a run in the top of the first, and then Paul Goldschmidt launched a ball deep into the OF. An odd bounce and a poor throw later, and Goldschmidt had an inside-the-park homerun and Houston had a 3-0 edge.
Ramsey started a bit rough giving up singles to Sherry Magee, Aaron Judge, and Scott Rolen to score 1 and a 2-out double to Charles Rogan, resetting the game in a tie. Houston nudged ahead again when George Brett, who had tripled, scored on an RBI groundout from Jorge Posada.
And then both pitchers remembered how to pitch: the score remained 4-3, Houston, through 6 innings, which marked the end of Collins’ day.
Bagwell greeted Brad Kilby with a solo shot in the top of the 8th, extending the lead to 5-3. Houston brought in Jim Kern for the 8th, and he struck out 2, preserving the 2 run advantage, and then they padded it, scoring 3 in the top of the 9th (2 on Carlos Correa‘s first homerun of the series).
The Colt 45’s brought in Sparky Lyle with a 5 run edge, leading 8-3. Rico Carty and Rogan whiffed, bringing Philadelphia to their last batter, catcher Bill Dickey … a hard groundball, fielded by Correa, rifled to first. And Houston is through to the Division Series!
Bagwell, Gwynn, Brett, and Posada each had 2 hits for the Colt 45’s.
Bagwell, who hit .300 with 4 homeruns, was named Series MVP, but Goldschmidt and Gwynn deserved consideration as well. And, perhaps most importantly for Houston, Tug McGraw, Sparky Lyle, Jim Kern, and Andrew Chafin combined for over 10 innings of scoreless work out of the bullpen.
Aaron Judge (.421 with 4 homeruns and 6 RBIs) also deserved at least cursory MVP consideration.
Sailing under the radar for most of the season, Brooklyn still managed 99 victories, led by a ridiculously strong pitching staff.
The Royal Giants are one of the a very few teams with a legitimate top 4, and it’s unclear if Don Drysedale‘s 2nd half resurgence earns him a start in the opening game, given that Orel Hershiser (19-5, 3.69), Smokey Joe Williams (12-13, 3.93), and Fernando Valenzuela (14-5, 3.69) each had better seasons than Drysedale’s 11-8, 5.66 record.
The bullpen sports 2 of the dominant relievers of the league, with closer Eric Gagne and setup man Trevor Hildenberger, and Burleigh Grimes and Sandy Koufax provide excellent middle inning help when needed.
The offense is a notch below the pitching: Ron Cey and Mike Piazza are stars, and Dan Brouthers, John Briggs, Jackie Robinson, Beals Becker, and Duke Snider are all quite good. Vern Stephens and Dickie Thon seem to be sufficient at SS, and the versatility of Ray Dandridge helps around the IF, despite his lackluster offense.
George Hendrick has been lights out since being brought over in a trade, and makes the playoff roster ahead of swing starter Jim Bunning.
#Philadelphia Stars
Quite a turnaround for Philly, who were horrible last year, mediocre much of this year, and then turned it on the final few months to finish in 2nd place in the Effa Manley Division.
It’s an odd team in many ways. Clearly, Charles Rogan and his unique combination of a 308/362/620 slash line and legitimate #2 starter mound performances count for a lot, as does Aaron Judge breaking out with an OPS over 1.000, 63 homers, 133 RBI’s, and 108 runs scored. Scott Rolen is excellent at 3B, and Rico Carty held off the demons of age for another productive season.
And then the question marks start … Bill Dickey seems to be the answer behind the plate, but is untested, Sherry Magee could be useful, and the newly acquired Jim Fregosi might finally provide some stability at SS. Seems, could be, might …
The rotation is … odd. Hardie Henderson (18-12, 3.78) is probably the #1, but Steve Carlton‘s stuff is electric, despite a 12-13 record and a 5.05 ERA. Then, Rogan. Behind those, JM Ward has been far, far, far better than his 6-10 record would indicate and lefty Ray Collins is dependable.
Bob Howry, Ted Kennedy, Fred Cambria, and Pedro Feliciano form a solid, no-name bullpen (with trade acquisition Mark Melancon‘s selection to the postseason roster in doubt).
In the end, Melancon made it, as did the disappointing Harry Hooper, but that was more a function of a lack of relevant alternatives than anything else.
#Houston Colt 45’s
Most saw this Houston team as being a year or 2 away, but they kept winning through the Summer, and ended up topping the Marvin Miller Division by a comfortable margin.
The pitching staff is not structured as it was to start the season, as both Stephen Strasburg and Roy Oswalt have struggled mightily all season. Still, it’s a strong opening trio, led by the dominant Toad Ramsey (16-10, 3.23) and Roger Clemens (17-10, 3.71) and the now-healthy Ice Box Chamberlain (4-4, 3.56).
The bullpen has been poor all season, with Sparky Lyle (brought over to be the closer) struggling and Tug McGraw having his issues as well. Jim Kern has been a surprising bright spot, and Andrew Chafin and Roberto Osuna have been solid enough.
The offense is an intriguing mix. Carlos Correa, Jeff Bagwell, and Tony Gwynn are a solid core and Paul Goldschmidt has forced his way into the conversation in about 1/3 of a season’s work. Gentleman Jim O’Rourke has bounced back from a poor first season, and the rest of the pieces–mostly Jim Wynn and teenage phenom Pete Hill–are solid enough.
The worst news for Houston is that C Will Smith, who has absolutely destroyed WBL pitching since his recall, is not eligible for the postseason, putting the onus behind the plate on Jorge Posada, who has struggled. Given the presence of Gorman Thomas–who has also been on fire in limited action–we may see O’Rourke catching more than anticipated.
Thomas’ performance forced Casey Stengel off the playoff roster, as, especially with Dock Ellis injured for a few days, both Strasbourg and Oswalt made it.
#Indianapolis ABC’s
It came down to a playoff, but baseball fans are happy to see the ABC’s make the playoffs, as it extends the season for the best pitcher in baseball, Luis Padrón, and the emerging superstar Oscar Charleston.
The postseason likely brings an end to Indianapolis’ 6 man rotation, as the team will try to maximize the starts for Padrón (23-3, 3.22) and Johnny Cueto (12-14, 4.62). Eppa Rixey, Guy White, and Joe Lake are the most likely candidates behind those 2.
The back end of the bullpen was supposed to be a strength, but both Rob Dibble and Rob Murphy have struggle of late, leaving Jack Billingham and the surprising Mike LaCoss as the strongest performers at the moment.
Offensively, this is Charleston’s team, with the young CF slashing 337/381/619 with 38 homers, 130 RBIs, and 101 runs scored. Joey Votto and George Foster have been excellent and while Johnny Bench fell short of last year’s heights, 46 homers and 116 RBIs from behind the plate is nothing to sneeze at.
Chris Sabo has mostly displaced Ed Charles at 3B, but the biggest issue is the absence of Joe Morgan, who will miss the postseason through injury. Morgan was among the best in the game, and without him, the middle infield becomes pretty mediocre, relying on Tommy Helms and Barry Larkin.
#Predictions
Brooklyn is just that much better than Indianapolis across the board, so I think the Royal Giants take that one, 4-2.
The Houston/Philadelphia series is even harder to predict, and I think it is either very close, going the full 7 games, or Houston’s offense clicks on all cylinders and the Colt 45’s win in 5. Let’s say the former, with Houston edging it in a final contest.
{Every year towards the end of the season, I do some legwork so when the awards roll around, it’s not as burdensome. This week, the fielders, next week, the rookies.}
We’re going to do this position by position, mixing the leagues, with the candidates listed alphabetically. 600 IP minimum, unless otherwise noted.
Last year, only 1 set of awards were given; this year, with the creation of the NL, there will be 2 at each position.
Some of the positions have their own things, but a note about some of the standard fielding statistics. Range Factor measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact.
Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.
#C
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
A
E
PB
ZR
RTO%
cERA
FRM
Johnny Bench
IND
NL
967
112
4
10
3.5
40%
5.26
7.6
Curt Blefary
BAL
AL
937
103
2
4
2.0
38%
5.68
1.6
Gary Carter
OTT
NL
900
114
5
9
4.3
42%
6.15
4.9
Josh Gibson
HOM
NL
973
102
3
6
-1.5
30%
5.98
7.7
Elrod Hendricks
HOD
NL
825
104
4
7
4.6
41%
5.47
3.9
Joe Mauer
POR
AL
974
129
5
6
2.7
37%
5.36
4.9
Thurman Munson
NYY
AL
957
91
6
2
3.0
36%
5.29
3.0
Mike Piazza
BRK
NL
966
88
2
12
-2.8
31%
4.62
4.5
Buster Posey
NYG
NL
933
100
4
9
2.6
39%
5.43
8.0
Iván Rodríguez
MCG
AL
917
116
2
14
5.3
47%
5.61
1.8
Ted Simmons
KCM
NL
907
108
5
5
2.4
37%
4.31
-2.3
IP = Innings Played; A = Assists; E = Errors; PB = Passed Balls; ZR = Zone Rating; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; cERA = Catcher’s ERA; FRM = Framing Runs Saved
Catcher’s stats are just all over the place.
It’s hard to take cERA and FRM all that seriously when they fall so far outside the bounds of the rest of the information at our disposal–although, to be fair, cERA is clearly tied to the quality of the staff and, as such, perhaps is best viewed as a net difference from the overall team ERA. Perhaps I’ll look at that for the actual awards.
Regardless, it feels like, if you look at a catcher’s primary job of making plays and keeping the opposition running game under control, Carter in the NL and Pudge in the AL are the frontrunners. The argument against each, if there is one, would have to focus on their league-leading (in the wrong way) PB numbers.
But this one doesn’t really feel close at this point.
Last year’s winner, Cleveland’s Louis Santop, has struggled so much offensively this year that his playing time has really dropped him out of contention, although his defensive performance remains top-notch.
#1B
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
A
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Mike Epstein
HOM
NL
957
952
56
80
4
8.93
3.0
1.016
Hank Greenberg
DET
AL
973
891
58
74
4
8.20
2.7
1.022
Kent Hrbek
POR
AL
884
846
45
79
5
8.57
1.8
1.028
Don Mattingly
NYY
AL
710
642
40
54
5
8.07
1.8
1.031
Dan McGann
BAL
AL
879
887
66
69
6
9.02
-1.9
.978
Boog Powell
KCM
NL
978
998
56
80
4
9.15
3.0
1.016
Joey Votto
IND
NL
942
863
62
76
0
8.25
4.5
1.040
Bill White
MEM
AL
793
812
35
66
6
9.15
0.4
1.007
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
The 2 best defensive 1Bs in the league–Kansas City’s Boog Powell and Indianapolis’ Joey Votto–are both in the NL. So the competition there is clear, as is, ultimately, the current frontrunner in Powell. Votto’s edge in the digital measures–ZR and Efficiency–may make this a more challenging choice at the end of the year.
In the AL, it’s far more confusing, but it feels like the discussion is between Detroit’s Hank Greenberg and the Black Yankees’ Don Mattingly. Mattingly hasn’t played a ton, so perhaps Greenberg edges him? Portland’s Kent Hrbek could probably edge into the discussion as well.
Will Clark of the New York Gothams, who won it last year, has been fine, but falls just short of contention.
#2B
Five 2B had only 3 errors, but 2 of them–Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson and Boston’s DJ LeMahieu–have under 700 innings at the position. LeMahieu is the leader in Defensive Efficiency, so he made the list, but Robinson did not.
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Roberto Alomar
OTT
NL
1035
511
62
10
4.36
-3.1
.978
Robinson Canó
KCM
NL
994
524
76
5
4.70
9.7
1.060
Eddie Collins
CAG
AL
995
528
77
11
4.67
-7.6
.943
Miller Huggins
BAL
AL
796
383
50
5
4.27
9.1
1.097
Chuck Knoblauch
CLE
AL
951
443
64
3
4.16
-9.6
.926
Nap Lajoie
HOM
NL
876
485
66
4
4.94
7.3
1.049
DJ LeMahieu
MEM
AL
644
345
53
3
4.78
7.7
1.110
Cookie Rojas
MCG
AL
738
363
62
3
4.39
-3.6
.965
Ryne Sandberg
HOD
NL
863
489
60
3
5.07
5.4
1.035
Chase Utley
PHI
NL
988
538
61
2
4.88
13.8
1.081
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
Ryne Sandberg and Napoleon Lajoie have had fine years at 2B, but Philadelphia’s Chase Utley has been fairly spectacular, leading the world in Zone Rating with excellent numbers across the board.
The AL is more confusing, as the best fielders–Miller Huggins and DJ LeMahieu–have yet to hit 800 innings in the field. But there really aren’t a lot of other contenders: Eddie Collins, who won it last year, has amassed a ton of time at 2B, and hence is among the leaders in the counting stats, but his other numbers are surprisingly bad.
#SS
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Jim Fregosi
POR/PHI
AL/NL
1077
497
60
8
4.09
-10.6
.940
Derek Jeter
NYY
AL
1061
504
67
16
4.14
-19.0
.911
Barry Larkin
IND
NL
705
380
49
9
4.74
8.3
1.085
Dick Lundy
SFS
AL
838
411
46
6
4.35
8.2
1.057
Freddy Parent
CAG
AL
888
508
56
11
5.04
13.2
1.058
Ozzie Smith
KCM
NL
1019
543
67
5
4.75
11.0
1.068
Arky Vaughan
CLE
AL
940
444
53
8
4.17
10.4
1.085
Robin Yount
MCG
AL
952
473
59
6
4.41
8.3
1.052
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
It feels like the choices here are pretty clear: Ozzie Smith in the NL and Freddy Parent in the AL. Smith should be uncontroversial, but Parent is subject to some discussion, as he is getting less and less playing time for the American Giants. If it’s not Parent, it is probably Arky Vaughan or Robin Yount, with the question being whether Yount’s surer hands outweigh Vaughan’s greater range.
George Davis, who won it last year, logged just under 50 games with Detroit before being sent to AAA and suffering a significant injury.
#3B
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Dick Allen
CAG
AL
1046
260
24
15
2.11
0.5
1.010
Buddy Bell
POR
AL
1045
296
23
8
2.48
7.9
1.054
Adrián Beltré
OTT
NL
936
272
6
7
2.55
0.3
1.007
Ron Cey
BRK
NL
956
278
24
7
2.55
4.7
1.035
Manny Machado
BAL
AL
857
259
14
10
2.61
0.9
1.013
Eddie Mathews
BBB
NL
1014
291
29
8
2.51
-2.6
.986
Doug Rader
LAA
AL
1047
287
26
13
2.35
0.9
1.021
Scott Rolen
PHI
NL
973
265
16
7
2.39
4.0
1.050
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
Portland’s Buddy Bell has probably been the best 3B in the WBL this season, so he should take the award in the AL. In the NL, it currently comes down to Scott Rolen and Ron Cey, whose numbers are pretty indistinguishable at this point, perhaps with a slight edge to Cey.
#LF
For the OF, DP is replaced by Outfield Kills, and we introduce ARM, a measurement of how many runs have resulted from runners taking extra bases on balls hit to the that fielder. Note that positive ARM ratings are relatively rare: runners do tag up.
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
K
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
ARM
Johnny Bates
CLE
AL
1006
205
4
2
2.09
7.0
1.053
-1.0
Bob Bescher
IND
NL
681
149
1
2
1.94
-4.3
.950
-2.1
Don Buford
LAA/NYG
AL/NL
705
127
0
1
1.61
-2.8
.957
-0.6
Rickey Henderson
SFS
AL
1040
199
3
4
1.69
10.0
1.104
-2.8
Sherry Magee
PHI
NL
658
127
1
0
1.74
3.7
1.046
-1.9
Bob Nieman
BBB
NL
720
145
4
2
1.79
-1.0
.961
-1.6
Frank Robinson
BAL
AL
897
184
4
2
1.83
0.3
.998
-1.8
Babe Ruth
NYY
AL
627
128
1
2
1.81
5.7
1.084
-1.3
Roy White
BRK
NL
1006
213
5
2
1.89
9.3
1.075
-1.2
Jim Wynn
HOU
NL
755
140
0
2
1.64
-4.4
.955
3.3
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
It feels like Roy White has a shot at being the first repeat winner as he has once again proven incredibly dependable in LF for Brooklyn, while adding more Kills and excellent supporting numbers.
In the AL, It feels like it’s the range of Rickey Henderson against the overall dependability of Johnny Bates–who actually makes more plays the Rickey, but some of that is down to staff effects.
Have to call out the nutty ARM rating for Jim Wynn, which is as flukish as fluke can be.
#CF
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
K
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
ARM
Paul Blair
BAL
AL
838
251
3
2
2.73
10.4
1.084
-2.3
Chili Davis
DET
AL
979
283
13
8
2.53
-12.5
.928
1.5
Willie Davis
PHI
NL
898
287
4
3
2.85
15.2
1.109
-2.0
Curtis Granderson
BBB
NL
974
317
1
5
2.88
4.8
1.030
-4.6
Pete Hill
HOU
NL
800
222
2
2
2.47
0.7
.997
-2.8
Willie Mays
NYG
NL
1065
327
3
4
2.73
11.3
1.046
-4.2
Willie McGee
KCM
NL
845
261
10
7
2.71
-5.9
.963
-1.4
Mike Trout
LAA
AL
940
282
2
1
2.69
-0.2
1.006
-3.3
Vernon Wells
CAG
AL
624
209
2
3
2.97
-5.2
.968
-2.6
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
Not a lot to pick from in the AL, which increases Paul Blair‘s chance at a repeat selection. It probably comes down to Blair’s overall excellence against the spectacular highlight reel nature of Chili Davis‘ year: Davis hasn’t made all the plays, but has thrown out 13 runners. Mike Trout is in the conversation, but Blair edges him across the board, and is the likely frontrunner.
In the NL, things are much deeper, and we run into the question of how to weigh playing time. Willie Mays has similar numbers to Willie Davis, but over 200 more innings in the field, which I think is enough to give him the edge. Some mention should be made of the steady Curtis Granderson and the surprising 10 kills from Kansas City’s Willie McGee.
#RF
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
K
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
ARM
Beals Becker
BRK
NL
1022
233
7
3
2.03
3.0
1.007
0.7
Mookie Betts
MEM
AL
775
166
1
0
1.93
6.8
1.076
-3.7
Roberto Clemente
HOM
NL
973
243
8
6
2.19
5.6
1.050
-3.1
Larry Doby
CLE
AL
768
186
1
7
2.10
5.0
1.064
-4.2
Stan Musial
KCM
NL
801
157
2
4
1.72
7.0
1.072
0.8
Ichiro Suzuki
LAA
AL
1035
227
5
0
1.97
5.4
1.036
-2.4
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
This is very close in both leagues.
In the NL, you could make an argument for all 3 of the contenders: Brooklyn’s Beals Becker has been steady across the board; Stan Musial covers a huge amount of ground for Kansas City and has a higher ARM than Becker; and Roberto Clemente makes the most plays and has the most Kills. I think it’s Clemente or Musial, with Musial slightly in front, maybe?
Over in the AL, it’s between Mookie Betts and Ichiro Suzuki, neither of whom have made an error in RF this season. Betts has been slightly better with the glove, Suzuki slightly better with the arm. Perhaps Suzuki, partially because he has played more innings in RF than anyone.
Last year’s winner, Johnny Callison, has done well this season, but is just out of the conversation. Mention should be made of Ottawa’s Larry Walker as well: Walker doesn’t cover a ton of ground, but has only made a single error in RF this season.
#P
125 IP minimum.
A few additional stat for hurlers, including the number of steal attempts and the % thrown out as well as the number of runs gained through their catcher’s ability to frame strikes. Obviously, both of these are highly dependent on the quality of backstop, but they also do impact the evaluation of the pitcher.
We’ve also taking out E and DP as stats, as odd as that may seem, as there is just not enough variance to really make much of them.
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
RNG
ZR
Eff
SBA
RTO%
FRM
Roger Clemens
HOU
NL
183
13
0.64
-3.0
1.659
61
25
-0.4
Gerrit Cole
LAA
AL
155
21
1.22
0.5
1.438
44
32
0.4
Pud Galvin
LAA
AL
130
24
1.66
1.3
1.149
31
39
-0.7
Bump Hadley
SFS
AL
164
30
1.65
-0.3
.996
62
34
0.5
Walter Johnson
POR
AL
189
19
0.91
4.8
1.217
28
61
0.3
José Méndez
MCG
AL
200
20
0.90
4.4
1.086
43
56
-0.7
Stubby Overmire
MEM
AL
175
21
1.08
2.2
.853
16
63
-0.0
Gaylord Perry
NYG
NL
185
31
1.51
-0.3
.996
35
29
0.7
Toad Ramsey
HOU
NL
196
18
0.78
1.0
.913
42
41
-0.5
Bob Rush
HOD
NL
156
26
1.44
3.3
.996
19
63
0.0
Jack Taylor
HOD
NL
163
19
1.05
5.6
.996
41
63
0.0
Doc White
IND
NL
130
8
0.55
1.8
.996
18
50
1.9
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency; SBA = Stolen Bases Attempted; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; FRM = Framing Runs
Who knows? Small sample sizes are rough, although it is nice to see last year’s winner, Jack Taylor, make a return appearance.
Taylor makes a lot of plays, and is very hard to run on, both of which count for quite a bit. I think an argument could be made for Pud Galvin, as well as for Taylor’s teammate, Bob Rush, but I would expect a fair bit of this to change over the final month of the season.
A run through of the trading deadline, in no particular order. Over 50 players and almost 20 draft picks changed hands in the frenzy.
Hoyt There it Is!
P Waite Hoyt, 5th round pick from NYY to CAG for P Hoyt Wilhelm, IF Jorge Orta, 4th round pick.
The New York Black Yankees address a bullpen need by acquiring Hoyt Wilhelm from the Chicago American Giants, in exchange for young starter Waite Hoyt. Chicago will also send young IF Jorge Orta to New York, and the 2 teams exchanged draft picks, with New York getting a 4th and Chicago a 5th rounder.
It’s an odd trade for New York, as it’s not clear that Hoyt (Wilhelm) adds more to their bottom line of wins more than Hoyt (Waite). Chicago probably wins this one, just on the SP > RP evaluation. Orta should have a WBL career, but is not enough to balance the deal.
Now & Later
IF Paul Konerko, P Akinori Otsuka, OF Lenny Dykstra, 3rd round pick from CAG to BBB for P Sam Streeter, IF Trea Turner, 5th round pick.
Chicago officially closed the door on their performance for this season, sending 1B Paul Konerko and his .988 OPS along with Akinori Otsuka and his 1.07 WHIP to Birmingham, receiving P Sam Streeter and prospect Trea Turner in return. Chicago will also send OF Lenny Dykstra and a 3rd round pick, with Birmingham surrendering a 5th rounder to make it all work.
Konerko and Otsuka being on the wrong side of 30 makes this acceptable, and Chicago probably got peak value for them in a long-term starter and the talent of Turner. Birmingham is thrilled, as this addresses two of their most pressing needs for a playoff push: 1B and bullpen help.
The Wolverines Commit
P Gene Conley, P Bill Drake, P Emil Yde, OF Hub Collins from DET to BAL for SS Bobby Wallace, P Connie Johnson.
Detroit addressed two needs in a deal with Baltimore, sending struggling P Gene Conley (who is in search of a reboot to their career after an amazing start last season), promising young Ps Bill Drake and Emil Yde along with OF Hub Collins to Baltimore in exchange for SS Bobby Wallace and P Connie Johnson.
I mean … Detroit loves this for the immediate future. The key here is whether Yde, and especially Drake, ever amount to anything. This does remove any question about the infield of the future for the Black Barons, with Eddie Murray, Miller Huggins, Cal Ripken, Jr. and Manny Machado all but assured of starting roles.
Stars and Sea Dogs move a lot of Bodies
SS Jim Fregosi, P Mark Melancon, OF Harry Hooper, IF Rafael Palmiero from POR to PHI for OF Bobby Abreau, P Dave Stieb, P Jaret Wright, P LaTroy Hawkins, SS Pat Meares, 2nd round pick.
Philadelphia, eyeing a potential playoff run, went shopping in Portland. They added a long-term solution at SS (Jim Fregosi), a much-needed bullpen arm (Mark Melancon), and some OF depth in the struggling Harry Hooper. That haul cost them 3 pitching prospects in Dave Stieb, Jaret Wright, and LaTroy Hawkins, as well as SS Pat Meares, and a 2nd round pick. The teams also swapped high-ceiling-but-blocked prospects, with Portland receiving Bobby Abreu and Philadelphia Rafael Palmiero.
Abreau for Palmiero is a wash. Of the rest, it’s sort of a classic now/later proposition. Fregosi and Melancon step directly into key roles for the Stars, but Hawkins, and especially Stieb, do look like excellent long term prospects.
The American Giants Do Some (More) Things
OF Jake Stenzel from IND to CAG for P Joe Lake.
IF Freddie Lindstrom, 2nd round pick from HOM to CAG for P David Price.
Chicago believes they can solve their pitching woes from within, sending 2 members of their rotation packing. First, they received CF Jake Stenzel from Indianapolis for Joe Lake; then they sent David Price to Homestead for Freddie Lindstrom and a 2nd round pick.
Stenzel steps into a crowded outfield, but should get a lot of play the rest of the season while the American Giants’ commitment to the struggling teen Cristóbal Torriente is tested. This basically decimates the American Giants’ rotation, leaving them with Ed Walsh and a lot of questions, but Lake and Price (who himself only arrived via trade earlier last season) were questions themselves. Lindstrom may step into a WBL role behind Dick Allen at 3B.
A Closer for Some Future
P Jonathan Papelbon, 4th round pick from MEM to MCG for P Josh Beckett, OF Roy Thomas, 3rd round pick.
Memphis sent Jonathan Papelbon to Miami, receiving minor leaguers Josh Beckett and Roy Thomas in return. The team also exchange draft picks, with Memphis surrendering a 4th in exchange for Miami’s 3rd round selection.
Fair enough. Miami desperately needed a dependable arm to join Ricky Nolasco in their pen, and Beckett has a ton of upside.
The Black Barons Upgrade
IF Bobby Grich, 3rd round pick from LAA to BBB for P Vic Willis, C Gene Tenace, 1st round pick.
Birmingham came into this trade period looking for a SS; they left with a 2B (who can play SS). In a bit of a surprise move, they convinced LA to part with Bobby Grich, sending Vic Willis, Gene Tenace, and a 1st rounder to the Angels, who also sent a 3rd round pick back their way.
Grich is a huge pickup for the Black Barons–an all star caliber who can get on base and play both middle infield positions is exactly what the doctor ordered in Birmingham. They gave up a lot–Tenace is excellent, some think Willis will eventually be a number one starter, and of course, the #1 pick is a lot. But it seems Birmingham is convinced they have a shot in the playoffs this year, and you can’t fault the ambition.
First Round Picks On the Move, or Freeman at Last, Freeman at Last
P Joe Beggs, 2nd round pick from BAL to KCM for OF Earl Averill.
IF Freddie Freeman, IF Eddie Miller from SFS to LAA for P Joe Nathan, IF Wally Joyner, 1st round pick.
Baltimore found a potential CF for the future in Earl Averill, who came over from Kansas City for a Joe Beggs and a 2nd round pick.
One of the more promising talents in the WBL may have found a home, as Los Angeles sent a 1st Round Pick, closer Joe Nathan, and Wally Joyner to San Francisco for Freddie Freeman and minor league SS Eddie Miller.
Both of these make some sense, as both Freeman and Averill were totally blocked where they were (Freeman by Jimmie Foxx and others, Averill by Willie McGee and Cool Papa Bell). Freeman should immediately see playing time in LA, while Averill looks to be in the mix for next season.
Gothams Going Gone
P Juan Marichal, P Robb Nen from NYG to HOM for IF Davey Johnson, IF Howard Johnson, 3rd round pick.
P Steve Howe, P Troy Percival from NYG to DET for IF Robby Thompson, P Dellin Betances, 3rd round pick.
The Gothams moved a few pieces around, sending Juan Marichal and Robb Nen to Homestead for 2B Davey Johnson, Howard Johnson, and a 3rd round pick. Then, they moved Steve Howe and Troy Percival to Detroit for 2B Robby Thompson, P Dellin Betances, and a 3rd round pick.
The Gothams will need to totally redo their staff, but each move makes some sense. Between Johnson (Davey) and Thompson, they should now have a post-Larry Doyle plan at 2B.
The Black Yankees Find their SS of the Future?
P Sparky Lyle, IF Elliott Maddox, P Carlos Rodón, 2nd round pick, 4th round pick from NYY to HOU for IF Grant Johnson.
They hope so, sending Sparky Lyle, Elliott Maddox, pitching prospect Carlos Rodón, and a 2nd and a 4th round pick to Houston for Grant Johnson, who will rotate in with both Derek Jeter and Rogers Hornsby for now.
It’s a lot to give up, for sure. But Johnson is only 25, and an established WBL performer who will solve the Black Yankees’ long term needs at either 2B or SS. Lyle is solid, and fills a very strong need for Houston, but the rest of what they gave up was future potential, which is cheap for a team whose goal is to win now.
Other Deals
OF George Hendrick from PHI to BRK for 3rd round pick.
IF Joe Adcock from NYG to MCG for 5th round pick, cash.
Philadelphia sent OF George Hendrick to Brooklyn for a 3rd Round Pick.
Miami picked up Joe Adcock from the New York Gothams essentially for free: they sent the Gothams a 5th round pick, and the Gothams are covering Adcock’s salary for the rest of the year.
Each of these were essentially curtesy trades: having picked up Harry Hooper, Philadelphia had no place for Hendrick and Adcock, at 38, desperately wanted a chance to swing the bat for a contender in what may be his final season.
Summary
Minor Leaguers in italics.
Team
Coming
Going
Baltimore Black Sox
Earl Averill Gene Conley Hub Collins Bill Drake Emil Yde 2nd Round Pick
Joe Beggs Connie Johnson Bobby Wallace 1st Round Pick 2nd Round Pick
Birmingham Black Barons
Lenny Dykstra Bobby Grich Paul Konerko Akinori Otsuko 3rd Round Pick 4th Round Pick
For each section, if a player doesn’t qualify for batting stats (roughly 270 PA), their G and PA are listed. Bold indicates a leader at that position for the stat; top 3 listed for most stats.
One thing became quite clear through all this: the AL is far more potent at the plate than the NL. Here, the challenge is omitting some players with 30 homeruns or near 1.000 OPS.
#C
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Ed Bailey (DET)
.985
269/365/619
20 HR; 46 RBI; 2.1 WAR
62 G/230 PA 43.2 RTO%
Mickey Cochrane (SFS)
.899
297/368/531
1.9 WAR
1.6 FRM; 4.31 CERA
Joe Mauer (POR)
.850
297/373/477
1.7 WAR
2.7 FRM
Curt Blefary (BAL)
.814
251/348/465
16 HR; 47 RBI
Carlton Fisk (CAG)
.801
222/285/516
21 HR; 56 RBI
40.2 RTO%; 2.2 FRM
FRM = Framing Runs | RTO% = Runners Thrown Out | CERA = Catcher ERA
Ed Bailey (whose defensive performance has been surprisingly good) and Mickey Cochrane are clearly in, with Bailey starting. That leaves Joe Mauer in a bit of no-man’s land: if the AL goes with 3 catchers, he’d be the 3rd. With Portland needing representation in the game, and a general desire for 3 backstops, Mauer makes the cut.
Iván Rodríguez has probably been the best defensive catcher in the AL (although Mauer has been quite good), but Pudge’s 237/272/448 slash line is just too weak to merit much consideration.
#1B
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Lou Gehrig (NYY)
1.029
283/394/635
28 HR; 67 RBI; 2.5 WAR
.995 Fldg
Frank Thomas (CAG)
.994
297/418/576
1.8 WAR
8.84 RF
Lance Berkman (CLE)
.980
271/364/615
28 HR; 69 RBI
Hank Greenberg (DET)
.976
276/347/629
28 HR; 2.0 WAR
.998 Fldg; 3.1 ZR
Jim Thome (MCG)
.954
231/352/603
32 HR; 72 RBI
8.84 RF
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
It’s hard to imagine that 32 HR and 72 RBI at the all star game doesn’t make the roster, but that’s what Jim Thome is facing. Lou Gehrig and Frank Thomas clearly are on the roster and while Lance Berkman and Hank Greenberg have better overall numbers than Thome, his power is gaudy enough to have the 3 in a dead heat. Perhaps Greenberg’s defense edges him in front?
In the end, none of the 3 of them made it, which is remarkable.
#2B & SS
Because Dick Lundy and Bobby Grich–two strong contenders–essentially split their time between 2B and SS, we’ll consider the two positions together. First the 2Bs.
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Rogers Hornsby (POR)
.867
280/386/481
11 HR; 33 RBI
58 G / 254 PA
Bobby Grich (LAA)
.829
238/367/462
15 HR; 44 RBI; 1.8 WAR
1.3 ZR
Eddie Collins (CAG)
.828
310/404/424
19 2B; 38 SB; 1.3 WAR
4.60 RF
Charlie Gehringer (DET)
.823
260/335/488
11 HR; 34 RBI
62 G / 242 PA; 4.96 RF
Cookie Rojas (MCG)
.800
321/365/436
29 2B
.988 Fldg; 4.51 RF
Miller Huggins (BAL)
.795
302/423/372
1.9 WAR
67 G / 241 PA; 6.4 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
And now the SS
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Cal Ripken, Jr. (BAL)
.926
293/339/587
45 G / 1655 PA
Arky Vaughan (CLE)
.906
312/400/506
19 2B; 44 RBI; 2.8 WAR
6.7 ZR
Bobby Grich (LAA)
.829
238/367/462
15 HR; 44 RBI; 1.8 WAR
Robin Yount (MCG)
.828
273/313/515
16 HR; 42 RBI
.983 Fldg; 4.42 RF
Dick Lundy (SFS)
.799
296/357/442
18 2B; 7 3B; 35 SB; 2.3 WAR
4.40 RF; 5.9 ZR
Jim Fregosi (POR)
.795
259/351/444
16 2B
.985 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
This is rough all around.
Arky Vaughan is just about the only clear choice here, with the best all around performance by a SS if you discount Cal Ripken, Jr., who just hasn’t played enough (likewise, a lack of playing time eliminates both Miller Huggins and, most controversially, Charlie Gehringer from consideration).
If we need 4 more middle infielders, they should come from Rogers Hornsby, Grich, Lundy, Eddie Collins, and Robin Yount.
Hornsby has been the best hitting 2B, which is no surprise, but he’s also missed some time and is somewhat of a liability defensively. Still, the best OPS of the group has to count for something, so he’s in as the starting 2B for the AL.
Eddie Collins is having a bit of an off year compared to last year season. Grich, Collins, and Yount are almost indistinguishable: as such, Grich’s versatility earns him a roster spot, and Collins edges Yount for the final spot, leaving Lundy in the cold as well.
#3B
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Evan Longoria (CLE)
.958
296/352/606
26 2B; 55 RBI; 2.3 WAR
.962 Fldg; 1.5 ZR
Mike Schmidt (NYY)
.951
251/367/584
26 HR; 60 RBI; 2.4 WAR
2.57 RF; 2.2 ZR
Gary Sheffield (MCG)
.937
281/327/611
22 2B; 60 RBI; 2.0 WAR
1.3 ZR
Wade Boggs (MEM)
.887
325/396/491
28 2B
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Wade Boggs is really just there for comparison. Mike Schmidt gets the starter’s nod over Evan Longoria, as much for his team’s performance as any discernable statistical edge.
#LF/RF
We’ll treat the corner OF’s together.
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Babe Ruth (NYY)
1.191
288/428/763
41 HR; 94 RBI; 5.4 WAR
6.7 ZR
José Canseco (MCG)
1.101
258/378/723
38 HR
Ted Williams (MEM)
1.059
310/425/634
69 RBI
Frank Robinson (BAL)
1.038
305/398/640
1.000 Fldg
Mickey Mantle (NYY)
1.009
270/380/629
32 HR; 82 RBI
Joe Jackson (CAG)
.981
354/397/584
40 2B; 31 SB
Rickey Henderson (SFS)
.866
264/386/479
62 SB; 3.0 WAR
7.3 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Babe Ruth, José Canseco, and Ted Williams are locks. After that, it would seem criminal to omit either Frank Robinson or Mickey Mantle, although it must be noted that Uncle Robbie’s performance is ever-so-stronger than Mantle’s, earning him one of the final spots.
That would leave the electric Rickey Henderson and the extraordinary Joe Jackson on the outside looking in.
#CF
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Tris Speaker (CLE)
1.113
341/413/700
32 2B; 64 RBI; 4.6 WAR
6.2 ZR; 6 Kills
Eric Davis (NYY)
1.080
319/399/681
29 SB
45 G / 208 PA
Turkey Stearnes (SFS)
1.063
334/373/690
9 3B; 24 HR; 61 RBI; 2.9 WAR
Julio Rodríguez (MCG)
1.061
346/369/691
43 G/195 PA
Mike Trout (LAA)
.987
309/389/598
25 2B; 4 3B; 57 RBI; 3.0 WAR
1.000 Fldg
Alejandro Oms (MCG)
.881
344/406/474
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Look, I don’t like Tris Speaker either, but the man can flat out play. So, he’s in, as is Stearnes, perhaps the leading candidate for the AL Rookie of the Year. And neither Eric Davis nor the surprising Julio Rodríguez have played enough to make the cut. So that leaves Mike Trout as the open question: Trout is clearly deserving, so the question is whether the AL goes with 2 pure CF’s or 3.
Alejandro Oms misses out, despite being 3rd in the league in BA.
#DH
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Ty Cobb (DET)
1.299
399/450/849
38 2B; 9 3B; 75 RBI; 32 SB; 5.6 WAR
Ron Blomberg (CLE)
1.032
288/361/671
32 HR; 85 RBI
Reggie Jackson (SFS)
1.029
300/422/608
21 2B; 24 SB; 3.0 WAR
Kal Daniels (LAA)
1.013
326/425/589
21 2B; 31 SB; 2.3 WAR
Ryan Braun (MCG)
.975
280/327/648
31 HR
Gavvy Cravath (BAL)
.956
247/349/607
23 2B; 28 HR; 71 RBI
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
My lord. 31 homeruns at the all star break and a possibility of not being selected? Welcome to your life, Ryan Braun.
Obviously, Ty Cobb and Ron Blomberg are in. And it seems ridiculous to omit either Kal Daniels or Reggie Jackson.
#SP
And now we move into the AL’s weakness–there are strong top-end candidates here, but far less depth than over in the NL.
Name
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Doc Gooden (LAA)
7-6, 3.26
.240 BABIP
58% QS
Ed Walsh (CAG)
6-3, 3.36
1.05 WHIP; .199 BABIP
0.6 WPA
Eddie Plank (SFS)
13-3, 3.73
0.5 WPA
Lefty Grove (SFS)
10-4, 3.80
140 K; 3.2 WAR
3 SHO; 2.87 SIERA; 0.5 WPA
Andy Pettitte (NYY)
10-5, 3.90
Brett Anderson (LAA)
8-2, 3.93
1.05 WHIP; .234 BABIP
Bump Hadley (SFS)
12-4, 3.98
3.67 FIP; 3.1 WAR
58% QS
Cy Young (CLE)
9-3, 4.37
3.81 FIP; 3.3 WAR
2 SHO
Ron Guidry (NYY)
8-5, 4.15
150 K
2.52 SIERA
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | BABPI = BA Allowed on Balls In Play | QS = Quality Starts | SHO = Shutouts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
The spots fill up quickly. Eddie Plank will start the game for the AL, and his teammates Bump Hadley and Lefty Grove clearly belong. It seems silly to omit the ERA leader, Doc Gooden.
After that, it gets confusing. Ed Walsh has been almost unhittable, but is only 6-3. Andy Pettitte has 10 wins and a sub 4.00 ERA.
That would leave the overall WAR leader, Cy Young, the strikeout and SIERA leader, Ron Guidry, and the overall excellence of Brett Anderson missing out.
#RP
Name
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Ron Robinson (SFS)
1-0, 1.64
3 Sv; 3 H; 1.00 WHIP
{ injured }
Ken Howell (SFS)
4-1, 1.72
1 Sv; 4 H
Ross Reynolds (LAA)
2-0, 2.30
1 Sv; 2 H; 1.88 FIP
Goose Gossage (NYY)
2-3, 2.41
10 Sv; 8 H
.90 Sv%
Akinori Otsuka (CAG)
3-1, 2.48
1 Sv; 5 H
Skel Roach (MEM)
1-0, 2.62
7 H; .160 BABIP
Justin Hampson (BAL)
0-0, 2.86
7 H; .159 BABIP; 1.05 WHIP
Rod Beck (SFS)
3-2, 3.20
23 Sv; .156 BABIP; 0.67 WHIP
15 SD; 2.83 SIERA; .885 Sv%
Terry Adams (CLE)
1-3, 3.80
15 Sv; 2 H
.882 Sv%
Sparky Lyle (NYY)
2-1, 4.37
3 Sv; 8 H
Rheal Cormier (NYY)
0-2, 5.75
11 H
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | BABPI = BA Allowed on Balls In Play | SD = Shutdowns | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | Sv% = Save %
The AL is a little weak in bullpen depth as well. Rod Beck is easily the class of the closers, with Terry Adams close behind. The overall excellence of Ken Howell and Goose Gossage also merit a spot, leaving Ross Reynolds, Skel Roach, and Justin Hampson on the bubble.
Hampson gets the nod, both because of how surprising his season has been and as a nod to the paucity of lefties in the AL pen.
#AL All Stars
The final 2 spots came down to choices between Mike Trout, Reggie Jackson, Kal Daniels, Mickey Mantle, Eddie Collins, and Robin Yount. A fourth middle infielder seemed like a requirement, giving the nod to Collins.
So. Reggie or Kal. Kal or Reggie. I mean. Kal Daniels is having an incredible year. But there’s just no way to argue he is more deserving than Reggie.
There is an argument to be made that the AL should only take 2 3B, replacing Gary Sheffield with Daniels. But the final choice is always going to be onerous.
Some more arguments about who was wronged (these are the highest ranked layers in each stat not to make the game).
Joe Jackson (CAG). #2 in H (109); #1 in the league in 2B (40); #2 in BA (.354). Mickey Mantle (NYY). #3 in HR (32); #3 in RBI (82). Kal Daniels (LAA). #4 in OBP (.425); #11 in OPS (1.013). Ryan Braun (MCG). #7 in SLG (.648). Rickey Henderson (SFS). #1 in SB (62); #4 in WAR (3.0). Dick Lundy (SFS). #3 in 3B (7).
And, on the mound
Cy Young (CLE). #5 in W (9); #2 in FIP (3.81); #1 in WAR (3.3). Ron Guidry (NYY). #1 in K (150); #1 in SIERA (2.52). Brett Anderson (LAA). #5 in ERA (3.93); #2 in WHIP (1.05). Walter Johnson (POR). #2 in IP (125). 4 Players have 14 saves, tied for #3. Of those, Only Ricky Nolasco (MCG) has an ERA below 4.00. Rheal Cormier (NYY). #1 in H (11).
Starters in bold.
C: Ed Bailey (DET); Mickey Cochrane (SFS); Joe Mauer (POR). 1B: Lou Gehrig (NYY); Frank Thomas (CAG). 2B: Eddie Collins (CAG); Bobby Grich (LAA); Rogers Hornsby (POR). SS: Arky Vaughan (CLE). 3B: Evan Longoria (CLE); Mike Schmidt (NYY); Gary Sheffield (MCG). LF: Frank Robinson (BAL); Ted Williams (MEM). CF: Tris Speaker (CLE), Turkey Stearnes (SFS). RF: José Canseco (MCG), Babe Ruth (NYY). DH: Ron Blomberg (CLE); Reggie Jackson (SFS), Ty Cobb (DET). SP: Doc Gooden (LAA), Lefty Grove (SFS), Bump Hadley (SFS), Andy Pettitte (NYY); Eddie Plank (SFS), Ed Walsh (CAG). RP: Terry Adams (CLE); Rod Beck (SFS); Goose Gossage (NYY); Justin Hampson (BAL); Ken Howell (SFS).
And, by team. Unsurprisingly, the 3 American League teams with records over .500 (San Francisco, the Black Yankees, and Cleveland) are supplying 18 of the 32 players.
San Francisco Sea Lions (.625). Rod Beck (P), Mickey Cochrane (C), Lefty Grove (P), Bump Hadley (P), Ken Howell (P) Reggie Jackson (DH), Eddie Plank (P), Turkey Stearnes (OF). New York Black Yankees (.618). Lou Gehrig (1B), Goose Gossage (P), Andy Pettitte (P), Babe Ruth (OF), Mike Schmidt (3B). Cleveland Spiders (.558). Terry Adams (P), Ron Blomberg (DH), Evan Longoria (3B), Tris Speaker (OF), Arky Vaughan (SS). Chicago American Giants (.466). Eddie Collins (2B), Frank Thomas (1B), Ed Walsh (P). Miami Cuban Giants (.483). José Canseco (OF), Gary Sheffield (3B). Detroit Wolverines (.453). Ed Bailey (C), Ty Cobb (DH). Los Angeles Angels (.448). Doc Gooden (P), Bobby Grich (2B). Portland Sea Dogs (.438). Rogers Hornsby (2B), Joe Mauer (C). Baltimore Black Sox (.416). Justin Hampson (P), Frank Robinson (OF). Memphis Red Sox (.494). Ted Williams (OF).
A whopping 15 players are repeat all-stars from last season: Terry Adams, Rod Beck, Ron Blomberg, José Canseco, Eddie Collins, Lou Gehrig, Lefty Grove, Rogers Hornsby, Ken Howell, Reggie Jackson, Joe Mauer, Babe Ruth, Frank Thomas, and Ted Williams.
We’ll preview the All Star selections, so this will be a bit of a longer entry.
#Awards
Lots of awards, as we moved into a new month!
First, the smaller ones. Houston‘s Jeff Bagwell was the National League Player of the Week, hitting .409 with 5 homeruns while Eric Davis of the juggernaut New York Black Yankees was the American League Player of the Week, hitting .481 with 5 homers in the same span.
In the monthly awards, the American League Rookie of the Month for June was San Francisco‘s Turkey Stearnes, who hit .378 with 11 homeruns in the month.
Kansas City‘s A. Rube Foster was both the National League Rookie of the Month and the NL Pitcher of the Month, going 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA, as the young hurler announced himself as, at least so far, a premier WBL starter. The American League Pitcher of the Month was Bump Hadley, Stearnes’ teammate in San Francisco. Hadley was 5-0 in June with a 2.66 ERA.
Ottawa‘s star backstop, Gary Carter, was the National League Batter of the Month, hitting .397 with 14 homeruns in June while in the American League, unsurprisingly, the award went to the stellar Ty Cobb. The Detroit OF hit .408 with 11 homers in June, which actually brought his overall average down in that span (Cobb is leading the WBL in BA at .418).
#Team Performance
Yawn.
The Black Yankees and the Sea Lions continue to be the 2 best teams in the league, leading their divisions by 5 and 11 games respectively.
The Effa Manley Division might offer some excitement in the second half, as Brooklyn still leads Homestead by 4 and the New York Gothams by 5.5. But the only true race is in the Marvin Miller Division, where Kansas City has overtaken Indianapolis, now leading the ABC’s by 2.5 games.
The Houston Colt 45’s are 8-2 over their last 10 games, but still sit 5 games under .500. Detroit and Philadelphia are moving in the other direction, with each team managing only 2 wins in their last 10 contests.
Birmingham still has the worst record in the league, but they have moved over .400, sitting at .410 (34-49).
#Player Performance
Batters
It’s still Ty Cobb’s world, although Babe Ruth is doing Babe Ruth things, and reached the 40 homerun plateau during the last week.
José Canseco (MCG). 254/375/734. 36 HR. Oscar Charleston (IND). 336/386/642. 103 H, 9 3B. Ty Cobb (DET). 416/464/885. 116 H, 37 2B, 8 3B, 5.8 WAR. Josh Gibson (HOM). 392/481/748. 5.1 WAR. Tony Gwynn (HOU). 389/425/601. 116 H. Pete Hill (HOU). 291/371/487. 10 3B. Joe Jackson (CAG). 356/398/588. 103 H, 39 2B. Stan Musial (KCM). 329/392/573. 37 2B. Babe Ruth (NYY). 292/426/775. 40 HR, 90 RBI, 82 R, 68 BB, 5.0 WAR. Larry Walker (OTT). 293/369/721. 36 HR, 85 RBI.
Rickey Henderson (San Francisco) and Tim Raines (Ottawa) continue to be 1-2 in the league in steals, but it’s getting closer, with Henderson’s edge now 60 to 53.
Pitchers
Starters
While his performance has been somewhat below par, the New York Gothams’ Christy Mathewson continues to be definition of workhorse, leading the WBL with 20 starts, 2 ahead of a bevy of hurlers with 18.
7 pitchers have reached double-digits in wins, with Luis Padrón (Indianapolis) leading the way at 11-2. All 7 are included below. Houston’s Toad Ramsey was so dominant for so long, he is still the top starter in the league despite a recent dip in form, but I would probably choose Lefty Grove of San Francisco or the emergent A. Rube Foster.
Frank Castillo (KCM). 10-1, 4.22. A. Rube Foster (KCM). 5-1, 2.30. .203 BABIP, 0.98 WHIP, 3.70 FIP. Lefty Grove (SFS). 10-4, 3.71. 126 IP, 132 K, 3.1 WAR. Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-4, 3.86. 143 K, 3.80 FIP, 3.2 WAR. Bump Hadley (SFS). 11-4, 4.21, 3.50 FIP, 3.0 WAR. Orel Hershiser (BRK). 10-4, 3.87. Luis Padrón (IND). 11-2, 4.21. 3.57 FIP, 3.3 WAR. Eddie Plank (SFS). 11-3, 3.54. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 11-4, 2.77. 124 IP, 152 K, 0.89 WHIP, 2.80 FIP, 5.2 WAR. Ed Walsh (CAG). 6-3, 3.41. 1 Sv, .201 BABIP. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 7-7, 3.41. 3.66 FIP, 3.4 WAR.
Relievers
We’ve listed the top 3 leaders in saves, all 5 of the relievers who have reached double digits in Holds, as well as all 5 with an ERA below 2.00.
18 IP minimum.
Rod Beck (SFS). 3-2, 3.47. 21 Sv. Rheal Cormier (NYY). 0-2, 6.03. 11 H. Eric Gagne (BRK). 1-1, 2.92. 19 Sv. Ken Howell (SFS). 4-1, 1.72. 1 Sv, 4 H. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-4, 4.13. 1 Sv, 10 H. Brad Kilby (PHI). 1-2, 4.39. 2 Sv, 10 H. Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 2-1, 1.14. 2 Sv, 11 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 4-2, 3.45. 20 Sv. Rob Murphy (IND). 1-3, 3.75. 1 Sv, 11 H. Robb Nen (NYG). 3-2, 1.95. 9 Sv, 6 H. Ron Robinson (SFS). 1-0, 1.64. 3 Sv, 3 H. BJ Ryan (OTT). 1-2, 4.15. 1 Sv, 10 H. Harley Young (BBB). 1-0, 1.23. 3 Sv, 5 H.
#Injury Report
Portland lost half of their backstop platoon as AJ Pierzynski will be out for close to a month. News was worse for Ottawa, as SP Bob Moose is out for close to a year.
Houston’s Casey Stengel and Kansas City’s Lou Brock are awaiting diagnosis on their current injuries.
Baltimore’s Bobby Wallace, Detroit’s Billy Hoeft, and the Black Yankees’ Dave Righetti should all begin rehab assignments this week.
#The All Star Candidates
We’ll look at these by position, mixing the two leagues for the time being.
For each position, we’ve included as many players as it takes to have at least 3-4 candidates from each league, highlighting some pretty severe disparities in talent between the AL and the NL.
If players don’t qualify for the batting stats, their playing time is noted, as are some other potentially influencing factors. This indicates a leader at that position among the players listed (but not necessarily overall).
Each league can only select 32 players for the All Star Game itself (usually 20 or 21 position players and 11 or 12 pitchers), so quite a few of the players listed here will be left on the outside looking in.
#C
The NL dominates here, with 3 catchers with an OPS over 1.000. That means some worthy candidates–most notably NYG’s Buster Posey –are likely to miss out.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Josh Gibson
HOM / NL
1.229
5.1 WAR; 67 RBI
3.1 FRM
Gary Carter
OTT /NL
1.073
28 HR
47.1 RTO%
Mike Piazza
BRK / NL
1.042
29 HR; 65 RBI
4.87 CERA
Ed Bailey
DET / AL
.972
57 G/216 PA; 43.6 RTO%
Jim Pagliaroni
BBB / NL
.925
61 G/231 PA
Mickey Cochrane
SFS / AL
.917
10 SB; 4.39 CERA
Ted Simmons
KCM / NL
.900
63 G/256 PA; 4.15 CERA
Buster Posey
NYG / NL
.870
3.8 FRM
Joe Mauer
POR / AL
.856
14 SB
Curt Blefary
BAL /AL
.826
Carlton Fisk
CAG / AL
.800
67 G/254 PA; 11 SB
FRM = Framing Runs | RTO% = Runners Thrown Out | CERA = Catcher ERA
The other stalwart defensive catchers–Miami‘s Iván Rodríguez and Indianapolis’ Johnny Bench–just haven’t hit enough, although a late surge by Bench has moved him up these lists.
I don’t think there is any question in the NL, where it’s Gibson, Carter, and Piazza. Cochrane and Mauer should be in for the AL, with a question of whether you go with Bailey’s bat in more limited appearances or Blefary. Should the NL decide to carry 4 backstops, the choice between Pagliaroni and Simmons (and, perhaps, Posey) is close.
Gibson and Cochrane should be the starters.
#1B
The AL has a slight edge here, but there’s a lot of talent throughout.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Lou Gehrig
NYY / AL
1.057
28 HR; 21 2B; 65 RBI
.995 Fldg
Will Clark
NYG / NL
1.006
Frank Thomas
CAG / AL
1.004
Hank Greenberg
DET / AL
.991
26 HR
.998 Fldg; 3.1 ZR
Mike Epstein
HOM / NL
.965
Anthony Rizzo
HOD / NL
.964
Lance Berkman
CLE / AL
.957
Jim Thome
MCG / AL
.927
28 HR; 64 RBI
Jeff Bagwell
HOU / NL
.923
66 RBI
.995 Fldg
Boog Powell
KCM / NL
.920
.995 Fldg; 9.23 RF; 2.9 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Gehrig and Clark are almost certainly the starters, and the AL will likely take Thomas and Greenberg as well. In the NL, it gets a little trickier, as Powell (along with Greenberg) is one of the better 1B defensively. Epstein’s offense will carry him, but after that my guess is Rizzo gets the selection (but cannot participate via injury), and is replaced by Powell, with Bagwell having a legitimate complaint.
#2B
The NL is ridiculously stacked in terms of offensive-minded 2B.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Joe Morgan
IND / NL
1.088
47 G/199 PA
Roberto Alomar
OTT/ NL
1.008
21 2B; 18 HR; 64 RBI; 31 SB; 3.5 WAR
Ryne Sandberg
HOD / NL
.995
28 HR; 60 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.997 Fldg; 5.00 RF
Jackie Robinson
BRK / NL
.938
Rogers Hornsby
POR / AL
.919
53 G/234 PA
Charlie Gehringer
DET / AL
.876
57 G/225 PA; .989 Fldg; 5.09 RF
Eddie Collins
CAG / AL
.850
36 SB
Bobby Grich
LAA / AL
.845
15 HR
Craig Biggio
HOU / NL
.841
Chase Utley
PHI / NL
.781
4.92 RF; 9.3 ZR
Cookie Rojas
MCG / AL
.766
27 2B
.987 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Joe Morgan is included just for interest–he missed too much time to injury to warrant serious consideration. Detroit’s Charlie Gehringer, on the other hand, probably makes the cut, despite starting the season in the minors.
In the NL, it’s pretty clear: Alomar, Sandberg, and Robinson, with the starter being decided between Sandberg and Alomar over the next week. The AL is trickier, but I think it ends up going according to form: Eddie Collins to start, with Gehringer and Hornsby behind him.
#SS
It’s pretty impressive there are this many shortstops that can hit, and Ernie Banks‘ production is incredible.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ernie Banks
HOD/ NL
.978
30 HR; 71 RBI
Cal Ripken, Jr.
BAL / AL
.967
39 G/140 PA; .993 Fldg; 4.90 RF
Carlos Correa
HOU/ NL
.929
18 2B; 2.8 WAR
Arky Vaughan
CLE / AL
.887
19 2B; 2.4 WAR
6.3 ZR
Álex Rodríguez
OTT / NL
.885
23 HR
Robin Yount
MCG / AL
.845
15 HR
5.8 ZR
Jim Fregosi
POR / AL
.793
Dick Lundy
SFS / AL
.783
7 3B; 2.1 WAR; 33 SB
Derek Jeter
NYY / AL
.762
Dobie Moore
MEM / AL
.750
22 SB
.983 Fldg
Ozzie Smith
KCM / NL
.672
19 2B; 25 SB
.994 Fldg; 6.3 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Ripken, Jr. is really not a serious contender, but he has been impressive in the 40 G’s he’s played. That gives us Banks, Correa, and Rodríguez in the NL and Vaughan, Yount, and either Fregosi or Lundy in the AL.
Smith is included because of his superlative defense, but doesn’t probably make the cut.
This is an interesting position: Vaughan and Rodríguez changed teams in the off season, and Correa’s performance has been a bit of a shock.
#3B
The top 5 are locks, beyond that, it gets much trickier, especially in the NL.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Albert Pujols
KCM / NL
1.046
32 2B; 60 RBI; 2.8 WAR
Ron Cey
BRK / NL
.967
2.4 WAR
.976 Fldg; 3.3 ZR
Gary Sheffield
MCG/ AL
.929
22 HR; 55 RBI; 15 SB
Evan Longoria
CLE / AL
.926
2.2 ZR
Mike Schmidt
NYY / AL
.926
23 HR; 55 RBI
2.59 RF
Scott Rolen
PHI / NL
.922
2.1 WAR
.974 Fldg; 2.7 ZR
Ron Santo
HOD /NL
.906
52 G/192 PA
Eddie Mathews
BBB / NL
.904
24 HR
.978 Fldg; 2.66 RF
Wade Boggs
MEM / AL
.896
26 2B
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
After Pujols and Cey, it’s hard in the NL. Matthews and Rolen edge ahead of Santo due to defense and Santo’s relative low usage, but picking between the two of them is very challenging, to the point the NL may go with 4 players at the hot corner.
#OF
All of the OF spots are a bit combined in the end, but we’re keeping them separate for the sake of comparison.
#LF
When Detroit’s Ty Cobb plays the OF, he plays here as well, making the AL selections pretty simple.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Babe Ruth
NYY / AL
1.201
40 HR; 90 RBI; 5.0 WAR
.988 Fldg; 5.1 ZR
Ted Williams
MEM / AL
1.063
23 2B; 65 RBI
Frank Robinson
BAL / AL
1.035
24 HR; 64 RBI; 2.3 WAR
1.000 Fldg
Adam Dunn
IND / NL
.906
24 HR
.989 Fldg; 3.41 RF
Roy White
BRK / NL
.866
Oscar Gamble
DET / AL
.852
Rickey Henderson
SFS / AL
.840
2.8 WAR; 60 SB
7.2 ZR
Tim Raines
OTT / NL
.773
7 3B; 53 SB
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
So, Ruth, Williams, and Robinson are in, and perhaps Henderson’s 60+ SB warrant a spot. In the NL, it’s more challenging. Dunn seems to be a lock, and White is a bit of a sentimental choice. It may be just those 2 from this group.
#CF
Tris Speaker, as despicable of a human being as he is, is the best in the AL right now, especially considering the defensive contribution. Over in the NL, Willie Mays probably edges Oscar Charleston as the starter.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Rick Monday
OTT /NL
1.172
41 G/136 PA
Tris Speaker
CLE / AL
1.088
31 2B; 4.0 WAR
2.68 RF; 5.1 ZR; 6 Kills
Turkey Stearnes
SFS / AL
1.065
7 3B; 24 HR
Eric Davis
NYY / AL
1.058
26 SB
41 G/188 PA; 1.000 Fldg
Julio Rodríguez
MCG / AL
1.052
39 G/177 PA
Oscar Charleston
IND / NL
1.027
9 3B; 60 RBI; 24 SB
Willie Mays
NYG / NL
.977
31 HR; 62 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.990 Fldg; 2.70 RF; 7.7 ZR
Mike Trout
LAA / AL
.965
24 2B; 2.8 WAR; 21 SB
1.000 Fldg
Carlos Beltrán
OTT / NL
.916
63 RBI; 21 SB
Alejandro Oms
MCG / AL
.883
5 3B
6.3 ZR
Curtis Granderson
BBB / NL
.876
26 HR
3.01 RF
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Monday, Davis, and Rodríguez aren’t really in contention, but their performances in limited action have been pretty spectacular.
Speaker, Stearnes, and Trout are pretty much locks in the AL, with Oms being a hard luck case. Beltrán deserves the spot behind Mays and Charleston.
#RF
A deep, deep group, probably 4 deep in each league.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
José Canseco
MCG / AL
1.109
36 HR
Larry Walker
OTT / NL
1.090
36 HR; 85 RBI; 22.4 WAR
3.89 RF
Reggie Jackson
SFS / AL
1.027
63 RBI; 2.8 WAR; 24 SB
Tony Gwynn
HOU / NL
1.026
6 3B; 24 2B; 2.8 WAR
Aaron Judge
PHI / NL
.994
.992 Fldg
Mickey Mantle
NYY / AL
.993
30 HR; 76 RBI
Joe Jackson
CAG /AL
.986
39 2B; 27 SB
Stan Musial
KCM / NL
.964
37 2B
5.5 ZR
Johnny Callison
NYG / NL
.945
.993 Fldg
Mookie Betts
MEM / AL
.865
24 2B
1.000 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Canseco, Mantle, and the 2 Jacksons seem locks in the AL, with Walker, Gwynn, and Judge in the NL. It’s possible Musial misses the cut, as ridiculous as that sounds.
#DH
The pressure here is immense, given the competition for the other OF spots.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ty Cobb
DET / AL
1.350
37 2B; 8 3B; 26 HR; 73 RBI; 5.8 WAR; 31 SB
Kal Daniels
LAA / AL
1.023
21 2B; 2.3 WAR; 30 SB
Manny Ramírez
MEM / AL
.986
56 G/224 PA
Ryan Braun
MCG/ AL
.982
31 HR
Willie Stargell
HOM / NL
.980
27 HR
Gavvy Cravath
BAL / AL
.926
22 2B; 69 RBI
Benny Kauff
NYG / NL
.909
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Cobb is, of course, a lock, and it would be hard to keep Daniels off the roster. Beyond that, though, it gets difficult to justify a pure DH, although Braun, Stargell, and Cravath all have decent arguments.
#P
Pitching is, of course, a constant crapshoot, and a lot could change in the outings this week.
All pitchers are sorted by ERA.
#SP
This list has everyone with an ERA under 4.00 or 10 or more wins.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Toad Ramsey
HOU / NL
11-4, 2.77
152 K; 0.89 WHIP; 5.2 WAR; 2.80 FIP
71% QS; 5 CG; 2 SHO; 2.34 SIERA; 1.7 WPA
Doc Gooden
LAA / AL
7-5, 3.17
Hardie Henderson
PHI/ NL
9-6, 3.18
Smokey Joe Williams
BRK / NL
7-7, 3.41
3.4 WAR
Ed Walsh
CAG / AL
6-3, 3.41
1.06 WHIP
Eddie Plank
SFS / AL
11-3, 3.54
Roger Clemens
HOU / NL
9-4, 3.71
65% QS
Lefty Grove
SFS / AL
10-4, 3.71
132 K
4 CG; 3 SHO; 2.87 SIERA
Johnny Cueto
IND / NL
8-4, 3.75
67% QS
Rube Foster
IND / NL
6-4, 3.80
Ron Guidry
NYY / AL
8-4, 3.86
143 K
2.58 SIERA
Orel Hershiser
BRK / NL
10-4, 3.87
Brett Anderson
LAA / AL
7-2, 3.91
1.06 WHIP
Andy Pettitte
NYY / AL
9-5, 4.05
Bump Hadley
SFS / AL
11-4, 4.21
3.50 FIP
Luis Padrón
IND / NL
11-2, 4.21
3.3 WA; 3.57 FIP
Frank Castillo
KCM / NL
10-1, 4.22
3 CG; 2 SHO
José Méndez
MCG / AL
6-4, 4.45
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Right now, I would guess the starting matchup is Toad Ramsey for the NL and Eddie Plank for the AL.
Beyond that, in the AL, I see Gooden, Walsh, and Grove as easy picks. Guidry is likely in as well, leaving Anderson and Hadley on the bubble.
The NL is much harder to figure out. Henderson, Hershiser, Padrón, and Castillo feel like they deserve selections, with Williams having a very strong case as well. That would leave some excellent performances–Clemens and Cueto especially–on the outside looking in.
#Swingmen / Long Relivers
These are players who are either swing starters or have seen more innings than the finishers below. As is often the case, there are a few folks here who, for whatever the reason, took a while to be inserted into the rotation.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
A. Rube Foster
KCM/ NL
5-1, 2.30
0.98 WHIP
7 GS; 90 IP; 86% QS; 2 SHO; 1.0 WPA
Jim Whitney
BBB / NL
4-2, 3.26
1 Sv; 2 H; 1.03 WHIP
11 GS; 94 IP; 73% QS; 1.9 WPA
Tom Brewer
SFS / AL
0-1, 2.33
1 Sv; 2 H
2 GS; 27 IP
Fernando Valenzuela
BRK / NL
5-0, 2.37
1 Sv; 4 H; 0.96 WHIP
1 GS; 60 IP; 1.0 WPA
Rheal Cormier
NYY / AL
0-2, 6.03
11 H
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Foster and Valenzuela seem clear selections, with Brewer and Cormier missing the cut and Whitney being on the bubble.
#Closers & Setups
20 IP Minimum, with a possible exception for Brian Wilson of the New York Gothams.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Brian Wilson
NYG/ NL
1-0, 1.08
11 Sv
17 IP
Craig Kimbrel
KCM / NL
2-1, 1.14
2 Sv; 11 H; 0.89 WHIP
15 SD; 5.6 IRS%; 2.90 SIERA; 2.0 WPA
Harley Young
BBB / NL
1-0, 1.23
3 Sv; 5 H
Ron Robinson
SFS / AL
1-0, 1.64
3 Sv; 3 H
Ken Howell
SFS / AL
4-1, 1.72
1 Sv; 4 H
Robb Nen
NYG / NL
3-2, 1.95
9 Sv; 6 H
Eddie Guardado
KCM / NL
2-1, 2.08
1 Sv; 5 H
2.92 SIERA
Tug McGraw
HOU / NL
3-3, 2.16
7 Sv
Ross Reynolds
LAA / AL
2-0, 2.19
1 Sv; 1 H
Goose Gossage
NYY / AL
2-3, 2.32
9 Sv; 8 H
.90 Sv%
Lee Smith
HOD / NL
4-1, 2.73
5 Sv; 6 H; 0.73 WHIP
Eric Gagne
BRK / NL
1-1, 2.92
19 Sv
17 SD
Justin Hampson
BAL / AL
0-0, 3.00
7 H; 0.95 WHIP
Terry Adams
CLE / AL
1-2, 3.18
15 Sv; 2 H
.94 Sv%
Josh Lindblom
HOM / NL
4-2, 3.45
20 Sv
.95 Sv%; 16 SD; 1.3 WPA
Rod Beck
SFS / AL
3-2, 3.47
21 Sv; 0.73 WHIP
15 SD
Rob Murphy
IND / NL
1-3, 3.75
1 Sv; 11 H
Michael Jackson
HOM / NL
1-4, 4.13
1 Sv; 10 H
BJ Ryan
OTT / NL
1-2, 4.15
1 Sv; 10 H
Brad Kilby
PHI / NL
1-2, 4.39
2 Sv; 10 H
2.73 SIERA
Rob Dibble
IND / NL
2-2, 5.25
16 Sv
Jeff Pfeffer
KCM / NL
1-3, 5.61
16 Sv
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
A difficult set of choices for sure. Of the true closers, Gagne, Lindblom, and Beck seem locks, with Kimbrel, Young, Howell, Nen, McGraw, Gossage, and Smith deserving nods as well.
That would give the NL 7 selections, likely keeping Wilson from making the team. It would also give the AL only 3, opening the door for Adams and even Reynolds or Hampson.
