▌ State of the Franchise
The Gothams are the 3rd team in their own city, behind a Brooklyn club that just won it all and the rich/arrogant Yankees up the road. 2001 was a wake-up call — after winning 87 games, they plummeted to 75-87 and last in the Effa Manley Division, 24 games back.
The top of the roster is not the problem. Willie Mays hit 49 home runs at 24 and was worth 4.4 wins. Buster Posey hit 39 from behind the plate and was worth 4.2. Will Clark put up a .952 OPS, Johnny Callison hit 39 more, and all 4 are 24 to 29 years old.
The problem is … well … everything else. Shortstop gave New York 442 plate appearances of 221/268/381. Third base needed 7 different men before Jim Ray Hart claimed it in the 2nd half, and it’s not like he set the world on fire. Left field was a hole until Don Buford was bought at the deadline, and Jimmy Sheckard, a 4-WAR outfielder in 2000, hit .172 in the WBL and finished the year at Triple-A.
And the rotation wasn’t much better — Christy Mathewson keeps giving both ace potential and thoroughly average performances, and the bullpen — the pride of the club in 2000 — was showing its age. So the Gothams tore it all down (which may mean, panicked uncontrollably, or may mean made a smart investment in their future).
Juan Marichal, Robb Nen, Troy Percival and Steve Howe all went out at the deadline; then, in January, the Gothams sent Gaylord Perry — its own 2001 WAR leader — up the road to the Yankees for HR Johnson, Dave Righetti, a 1st-round pick and a 3rd. Johnson is an infielder, and may offer some long-sought-after stability there.
▌ 2001 Revisited
We asked for a deep playoff run, much like last year, and added a note about the Gothams’ habit of trading away all their damn picks. They went 75-87.
The worst case we sketched was that the bullpen falters, and only Matty remains viable as a starter while everyone not named Mays and Posey struggles offensively. That was close, and still too kind. The bullpen didn’t falter so much as get sold for parts. Mays and Posey did carry the offense. And Mathewson was the one who faltered.
Which is where 2001 gets strange. Mathewson went 7-16 with a 5.61 ERA, and he was the best pitcher on the staff: 210 innings, 207 strikeouts, 4.0 WAR at 22, a figure that actually rose from the year he led the league in wins. Don Sutton went 17-8 with a 5.23 and was worth 1.9. Same rotation, same season, 2 records that just add to the lack of internal clarity.
The best case wanted Perry or Marichal to step forward and join Mathewson among the league’s elite. Perry did have a decent year — a 1.13 WHIP across 211 innings, but went packing when the Black Yankees came knocking. Benny Kauff, who the preview wondered how they’d find at-bats for, found them, made the All-NL 2nd Team, and was traded in March.
A lot of churn. But it’s not clear the Gothams are any better.
▌ Key Changes
In: Grant Johnson (NYY); Dale Murphy (KAN); Dave Righetti (NYY)
Out: Dellin Betances (FA); Benny Kauff (KAN); Tony Mullane (FA); Gaylord Perry (NYY); Robby Thompson (NYY)
Opening Day Rookies: Santiago Casilla; Dick Dietz; George Jeffcoat; Doggie Miller; Buck O’Brien; Vito Tamulis; Masahiro Tanaka
▌ Best Case for 2002
The middle fills in. HR Johnson, 26, takes second base and hits the way he did in Houston; Hart holds third; Brandon Crawford finds enough of a bat to go with the glove, or somebody takes the job from him. That alone is worth several wins, because the 4 men at the top are already producing at a playoff standard.
Mathewson’s record catches up to his arm. Righetti, 24 and coming off a 2.5-WAR season in the Bronx, gives the rotation a 2nd real starter, and Pete Donohue — 22, a 3.61 across 120 innings at Triple-A and a NL 21 & Under Team pick — turns his September look into a rotation spot.
And the bullpen rebuilds itself from inside. Brian Wilson is still an elite closer when healthy, George Jeffcoat saved 32 games at Hartford, Santiago Casilla was untouchable there. So perhaps the identity returns.
▌ Worst Case for 2002
Johnson is the latest name on a long list. New York has spent 3 years betting on the undervalued bat — Pinky Higgins, John Kerins, Matt Williams, Pete Runnels, Carl Furillo, Wes Westrum — and the bets keep landing in the same unremarkable middle. If Johnson doesn’t hit, the club will have sold its best pitcher to the richest team in its own city for another meh return.
Mathewson doesn’t take the step, Sutton’s ERA finally catches his record, and the rotation behind them is a 26-year-old with a 5.75 and a set of Triple-A arms. Dale Murphy hit .193 in Kansas City last year and is the insurance in center. Crawford keeps the shortstop job by default. A 75-win team wins 75 games again.
▌ Key Questions
- Does HR Johnson hit? He is 26, he plays the position New York has needed for 3 years, and he cost the club a pitcher who had just led it in WAR. Johnson produces and the trade is the cleverest thing the Gothams have done. Get him wrong and it is an all-too-familiar mistake.
- Will the real Matty please stand up? He has now led the league in wins and, a year later, in losses, with his WAR going up in between. Read that again. At 22 with 207 strikeouts he has every ingredient of a front-line starter and a 5.61 to explain away. The org has never been sure whether it has an ace or a very good innings-eater. It would be nice to know.
- Can the left side of the infield be fixed from inside? Shortstop and third combined for less production than most clubs get from a single player. Johnson will swing across these positions, but someone else needs to contribute here as well.
▌ Roster Evaluation
Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.
| Pos | Players |
|---|---|
| C | Posey A · Dietz |
| 1B | Clark B |
| 2B | Johnson · Doyle B |
| SS | Crawford F |
| 3B | Hart |
| LF | Buford D · Sheckard |
| CF | Mays A · Murphy F |
| RF | Callison C |
| DH | Doyle B · Dietz |
| SP | Mathewson D · Sutton C · Hubbell F · Righetti · Donohue · Tanaka |
| RP | Wilson B (CL) · Norris B · Casilla · Tamulis · Tekulve · Jeffcoat |
Dick Dietz was among the better backup bats in the league, which on most rosters is a luxury and on this one is a way to get a real hitter into a lineup that runs out of them by the 6th spot. And Mike Norris, 37 and the club’s Fan Favorite, is almost certainly taking his last lap — which may be cut off early, as age catches up with the 2000 Reliever of the Year in the WBL.
▌ Talent Ratings
| WBL | Minors | |
|---|---|---|
| Raw Power | 2B HR Johnson | CF Dwayne Murphy |
| Batting Eye | C Dick Dietz | CF Dwayne Murphy |
| Contact | LF Tip O’Neill | CF Fred M Lewis |
| Running Speed | CF Willie Mays | CF George Van Haltren |
| Base Stealing | LF Jimmy Sheckard; 2B HR Johnson | SP Al Spalding; CF George Van Haltren |
| IF Defense | SS Brandon Crawford | 2B Whitey Wietelmann |
| OF Defense | CF Willie Mays | RF Mike Tiernan |
| Stuff | RP Grant Balfour | RP Henry Rodríguez |
| Control | SP Pete Donohue | SP Al Spalding |
| Velocity | RP Grant Balfour | RP Derrick Turnbow |
▌ Best In The Minors
| Rank | Age | Pos | Name |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (27) | 18 | SP | Amos Rusie |
| 2 (61) | 26 | CF | Dwayne Murphy |
| 3 (76) | 23 | SP | William VanLandingham |
Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Masahiro Tanaka (77).
Others: IF Carlos Baerga, IF Alvin Davis, IF Howard Johnson, OF Tully Hartsel.
3 names on the ranked list, and the Gothams know exactly how it got that way — last year’s preview asked them to stop trading away all their damn picks, and they spent 2001 trading more of them. Amos Rusie is the exception and a real one: 18 years old and 27th in all of baseball.
Underneath, the system is infielders the club is hoping into relevance. Carlos Baerga, 19, came from Kansas City in the Kauff deal; Howard Johnson and Davey Johnson arrived from Homestead for Marichal and Nen. At least the January trade brought back picks instead of spending them.
▌ Superlatives
| Most | Least | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | Mike Norris, 37 | Amos Rusie, 18 |
| Height | Ron H Jackson, 6’7″ | Tully Hartsel, 5’5″ |
| OPS | Will Clark, .952 | Cliff Bolton, .534 (A) |
| HR | Willie Mays, 49 | George Van Haltren, 0 (AA) |
| SB | Tim Shinnick, 72 (A) | – |
| WAR (bat) | Willie Mays, 4.4 | George Van Haltren, −1.2 (AA) |
| W | Don Sutton, 17 | – |
| SV | George Jeffcoat, 32 (AAA) | – |
| ERA | Willie Banks, 3.37 (A) | Tully Sparks, 6.10 (AAA) |
| WAR (pit) | Pete Donohue, 4.5 (AAA) | Wandy Rodríguez, 0.3 (A) |
Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.