With just over a week left in Spring Training, we get to see how panicked some teams are, and how much they want to shake things up before opening day.
Unsurprisingly, we start with the Black Yankees and their perennial win-now mentality.
#The Black Yankees Add MI
NYY sends RP Aroldis Chapman, IF Mark Grudzielanek, 2nd Round Pick to CLE for IF Joe Sewell, IF Bill Phillips.
This is more fallout from the Grant Johnson trade in some ways: Sewell will have every shot at displacing Derek Jeter at SS for New York, and the team looks set to juggle their middle infield between those two, Robby Thompson, and Rogers Hornsby.
For Cleveland, they took a blocked talent–Sewell was never displacing Arky Vaughan–and converted it into a great bullpen arm and a valuable pick.
#The Red Sox Have a Rotation
Unsatisfied with just adding Don Drysdale and Red Ruffing, Memphis went shopping on the West coast.
MEM sends IF Dobie Moore, OF Dwight Evans, P Mike Witt to LAA for P Tom Seaver, IF Xander Bogaerts, IF Andrelton Simmons, C Mark Salas.
Clearly, the spine of the deal is Seaver for Moore, but this one has a lot of repercussions: Memphis continues to weed out some of its OF talent, and takes a gamble on Seaver continuing to develop at the WBL level. SS for Memphis is now a scramble between the two new bodies, Adam Everett, and Bud Harrelson; while for Los Angeles, this settles at least half of their middle infield question, and opens the door for some more arms to prove themselves in the rotation as they look to the future.
#CAG Settles at SS. Maybe.
CAG sends U Trea Turner & IF Yoán Moncada to HOU for IF Travis Jackson.
Jackson is clearly ready for WBL time–here he may actually get it; in return HOU gets a prospect in search of a position and one of the ST surprises in Moncada.
#Monarchs Make Moves
KAN sends OF Dale Murphy & IF Carlos Baerga to NYG for OF Benny Kauff.
A classic now v later move. Murphy is desperately in need of a change of scenery, and Baerga remains 4-5 years away, while Kauff should help deepen a lineup in need of power.
But Kansas City wasn’t done.
KAN sends P José Rijo, P Jeff Pfeffer & 1st Round Pick to LAA for 3B Doug Rader.
The Albert Pujols at 3B experiment looks to be officially over, with Los Angeles clearly reacting to the loss of Seaver. Expect David Wright and/or Pedro Álvarez to inherit the hot corner for the Angels.
And this led to another move for Los Angeles.
LAA sends P Brett Anderson & 3rd Round Pick to HOD for IF Richie Hebner, OF Cy Williams & 2nd Round Pick
Los Angeles has now gotten rid of their 2 best pitchers from last season: this is either great faith in their stockpiled arms or pure madness.
#Easy as A-B-C
IND sends P Tom Glavine, P George Medich, P Jack Billingham & IF Robin Ventura to POR for IF Buddy Bell.
Indianapolis gets an all star and former gold glove winner to take over at the hot corner, while Portland lands a lot of future potential, headlined by the 19 year old Glavine.
This deal set the stage for the next one.
IND sends IF Ed Charles & P Dan Plesac to NYY for P Jeff D. Robinson & P Jack Armstrong.
The Black Yankees get a decent bench piece for the price of a Rule V selection–which seems fair to all. The other two arms are essentially fliers–Armstrong back to his seed franchise, Plesac as a veteran LHP hedge.
#Memphis Not Done Yet
MEM sends IF Candy Jim Taylor, P Nathan Eovaldi & 1st Round Pick to BRK for OF John Briggs & 3rd Round Pick.
This one has some heads shaking. Memphis and Brooklyn team up again, with the Red Sox landing what they hope is the CF of the future, and Brooklyn adding some minor league talent and a coveted #1 pick.
Briggs has been doubted every step of his career–this is just another chance for him to prove the haters wrong. For Brooklyn, it clears CF for Duke Snider, and also means their OF glut can now route into the DH for the year.
#BB to BBB
BAL sends IF Asdrúbal Cabrera, P Bill Byrd, IF Roy Smalley Jr. & 3rd Round Pick to BBB for P Steve Avery, P Gio González, P Warren Spahn, OF Curt Flood & 1st Round Pick.
An interesting deal.
In 7 years, Baltimore may see this as a massive win–if Avery develops, if González becomes a rotation starter, if the 1st Round Pick pans out and, perhaps most of all, if a change of scenery reboots Spahn’s career.
That’s a lot of if’s. In the meantime, Birmingham gets a potential answer to their SS woes and a front of rotation arm that excels in limiting homeruns, the Black Barons’ current Achilles’ heel.
90 - 72, .497 pct.
1st in Bill James Division
Lost to CLE 4-1 v PHI in AL Wild Card
Overall
This franchise will never be satisfied without a championship. So … they’re not satisfied.
This team will always score runs, and they have decently reasonable expectations for their rotation (even with the odd departure of Red Ruffing). So, once again, the question is how do they shore up the back end of their staff and the ongoing misery that is the Black Yankees’ bullpen.
But the core of this team is so magnificent: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, Rogers Hornsby, and now Grant Johnson. Of those, only Schmidt (29) and Hornsby (34) are over 25. So it should be good for a while yet.
But they’ve never been wary of blowing things up, so it could be another busy offseason in the Bronx.
What Went Right
The team revolves around the Bambino. 73 homeruns (a record expected to stand for a while) and 167 RBIs will do that, along with a slash line of 280/412/744. And, honestly, he’s more likely to repeat at that level than Ty Cobb at his, so another Mel Trench Award may be in the future.
On any other team, Lou Gehrig would be the focal point (63 homeruns, 132 RBIs, 292/399/721). Here, Gehrig seems happy to be more in the shadows despite the superlative performance. Gehrig may move to 1B next season–it depends on what the decide to do with Don Mattingly.
And then there’s Mickey Mantle, the youngest of the three, posting a .969 OPS. Yeah, he strikes out too much (219 times), but the power and ability to get on base is amazing. If Eric Davis‘ injury woes continue, Mantle will see more and more time in CF.
Speaking of Davis, he was a great performer (.882 OPS with 61 SB) in the 111 games he played in. So that’s both sides of his coin.
Mike Schmidt doesn’t hit for average, but he hits for power and gets on base while playing fantastically at the hot corner.
Rogers Hornsby is 34, but he’s still arguably the best 2B in the league. His playing time may continue to reduce, especially if Grant Johnson, who slashed 280/330/538 after his arrival from Houston, continues at that pace (Johnson will play both 2B & SS, maybe even some 3B).
On the mound, last season’s big acquisition, Andy Pettitte, delivered in spades, leading the staff with an 18-9 record and a 4.43 ERA (not close to leading the league, as he did last year, but still quite respectable).
Yet again, Ron Guidry has a great year by advanced analytics … and a less than stellar one by traditional ones. Guidry finished 11-7 with a 4.51 ERA, 2nd in the league with 251 strikeouts. But his SIERA, WAR, and FIP were significantly better than Pettitte’s. So, we’ll see if Louisiana Lightning can put it together on both sides at some point.
And then the starters fade dramatically. Pascual Pérez was mediocre after coming over from Portland, Dave Righetti was .. fine, and the noise around Tony Brizzolara is more because of how much better he was than, say, Jack Scott‘s 7.34 ERA.
In the bullpen, Goose Gossage was usually excellent, but often horrid, taking over at closer and posting 20 saves to go along with 8 holds and an ERA barely over 4. And Hoyt Wilhelm was quite good after coming over in trade.
But … beyond that … Rheal Cormier had 18 holds with horrible numbers.
ALL STARSLou GehrigGoose GossageAndy PettitteBabe RuthMike Schmidt
MAJOR AWARDSRogers Hornsby, AL 2B Silver Slugger
Mickey Mantle, All AL Team
Babe Ruth, All AL Team; AL OF Silver Slugger
RECOGNITIONSTony Brizzolara, AL All Rookie 2nd Team
Lou Gehrig, All AL 2nd Team
Goose Gossage, All AL 2nd Team; AL 23 & Under Team; Phineas Flint Award 3rd Place
Ron Guidry, All AL 3rd Team
Rogers Hornsby, AL Over 30 Team
Grant Johnson, AL 25 & Under Team
Mickey Mantle, AL 25 & Under Team; AL 23 & Under Team
Andy Pettitte, All AL 2nd Team; AL Over 30 Team
Babe Ruth, AL 25 & Under Team; Mel Trench Award, 2nd Place
Mike Schmidt, All AL 2nd Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDSBabe Ruth, MVP
Andy Pettitte, Pitcher of the Year
Lou Gehrig, Heart & Soul
Eric Davis, Fan Favorite
Noah Syndergaard, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Mickey Rivers, Minor League Player of the Year
What Went Wrong
The IF was rough for much of the year, with Tom Herr playing himself out of the WBL, Héctor López struggling in a reserve role, and Derek Jeter‘s offensive struggles. Jeter is slowing in the field at 33, and his .744 OPS isn’t going to cut it.
Don Mattingly hits OK, but an .800ish OPS won’t cut it at 1B.
And then there’s the pitching.
The issue was really that nobody stepped into the void after the good performers. Jack Scott was miserable as a starter as was Minor League Pitcher of the YearNoah Syndergaard who thoroughly failed his WBL audition, and David Robertson, Roy Evans, Gary Lavelle and a host of others were even worse out of the pen.
Aroldis Chapman continues to have lightning in his left arm and no real sense of how to use it.
Transactions
March
OF Albert Belle, P Frank Viola, P Lefty Gomez, IF Jess Barbour to BBB for P Andy Pettitte, OF Mickey Rivers, 3rd Round Pick.
Seems like a clear win: Pettitte became the staff ace, Rivers, while thoroughly blocked, was the Minor League Player of the Year, and they still have the pick.
July
IF Willie Randolph, P Jake Peavy, P Bill Monbouquette, 1st Round Pick to POR for IF Rogers Hornsby, P Pascual Pérez.
Depending on the pick and how Peavy develops, this could be seen as a colossal error, but the Black Yankees are a win-now organization, and Hornsby delivered as promised.
August
P Waite Hoyt & 5th Round Pick to CAG for IF Jorge Orta, P Hoyt Wilhelm, & 4th Round Pick.
On the one hand, (Waite) Hoyt is exactly the kind of mid-rotation starter New York now needs; on the other, Hoyt (Wilhelm) should settle some of the bullpen for quite some time. So, shrug?
P Sparky Lyle, IF Elliott Maddox, P Carlos Rodón, 2nd Round Pick, & 4th Round Pick to HOU for IF Grant Johnson.
The price was high, but HR Johnson is a fantastic talent, and has a clear role with the Black Yankees. Still, the cupboard is getting bare for the future (future? what is this future? there is only now sneers the Black Yankees’ board).
Positional Overview
C
Thurman Munson slid a bit this year, but he’s still quite solid and Manny Sanguillén is one of the better backups in the league. Both will return.
If they falter, Darrin Fletcher, Eric MacKenzie, or Ron Pruitt look most likely to be able to help out.
1B
For now, this is Don Mattingly, but he either needs to step it up or Gehrig may see more time here, with Nick Etten in reserve.
In terms of pure 1B, only Fred Whitfield has much promise, although Anthony Volpe has his supporters. Roger Maris may get some reps here occasionally as well.
2B
Rogers Hornsby is here, with a lot of support from Grant Johnson. Veteran Hardy Richardson is still at AAA, and could fill in if needed, while Tom Herr is always around.
More interesting is Jorge Orta, who had a brilliant debut, but seems a bit positionally blocked in the system.
SS
The Black Yankees will trot out Derek Jeter again, but he really isn’t providing enough to hold his starting role indefinitely. Should Jeter continue to struggle, look for Grant Johnson to see time here as well.
There is some talent in the system, from the defensive prowess of Alcides Escobar and Dansby Swanson to the overall talents of Charlie Irwin and Mark Grudzielanek.
3B
Mike Schmidt is under appreciated pretty universally, but he’s a spectacular talent. Look for Josh Harrison to push Héctor López for the reserve role, with Heinie Groh offering a strong defensive option.
LF/RF
Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle are an impressive duo, to say the least.
Roger Maris did enough in limited action to warrant a long look as a the reserve OFer.
Should they be needed, a quartet of minor league veterans could be useful: Hank Bauer, Gene Moore Jr, Nick Swisher, and Jayson Werth.
CF
Eric Davis will be here as long as he’s healthy, with Mantle sliding over as well.
The minors have some talent as well, led by young Clyde Milan, but also Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Minor League Player of the YearMickey Rivers.
DH
If Mattingly stays, this is Gehrig, but if not, it offers a well to work some of the additional OF talent into the mix.
SP
Andy Pettitte and Ron Guidry are set, and Dave Righetti and Tony Brizzolara are likely assured of spots as well. That leaves an open spot for Pascual Pérez, Whitey Ford, Noah Syndergaard, and Art Ditmar to fight over.
Vic Raschi, Jack Scott, and Roy Evans each have shown some promise lower in the system as well.
RP
Gossage and Wilhelm will be welcomed back; Cormier and Chapman accepted with a little less enthusiasm.
Beyond that, it’s pretty open. Herm Wehmeier faltered after a promising start, but he, Jeff Nelson, and Anthony Varvaro will get a close look in the Spring, as will minor league closer Paul Shuey.
It’s honestly surprising the Black Yankees have this many picks left. Some of these may be used to bolster the bullpen, others would be aimed at replenishing a somewhat depleted system.
The first position fairly evenly distributed between the two leagues, we also have the largest discrepancies so far–there is some excellence here along with some truly miserable performances.
Los Angeles is the only team not represented (Bobby Grich is listed with the 2B, nobody else played enough at SS for the Angels).
#S Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
HOD
Ernie Banks
25
290/314/653
59 HR 126 RBI
-10.9 ZR .930 dEff
WAR would put Carlos Correa and Arky Vaughan here, perhaps even above Ernie Banks. But WAR ain’t everything, and getting the kind of power Banks provides from a SS is very special, even if his defense is not. For me, it’s Banks, and then a cluster of quality in the A Tier.
#A Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
HOU
Carlos Correa
23
318/399/556
25 HR
4.18 RF
AL
BAL
Cal Ripken, Jr
23
279/326/584
32 HR
4.80 RF
AL
CLE
Arky Vaughan
27
294/380/493
31 SB
13.4 ZR 1.091 dEff
These are all surprises: Carlos Correa to be here at all (and only a late season slump kept him from giving Banks a run for his money), Cal Ripken, Jr to be here this quickly, and Arky Vaughan to have blossomed both with the glove and the bat.
Of the three, I would expect Ripken to have the best shot at moving up.
#B Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
SFS
Dick Lundy
22
291/338/450
57 SB
.987 fPct
NL
OTT
Álex Rodríguez
22
252/314/559
46 HR 32 SB
AL
MCG
Robin Yount
26
266/303/505
28 HR 32 SB
This gets a little more complicated. Does Álex Rodríguez‘ offense warrant a nudge up? How about Dick Lundy‘s combination of speed and defense? In the end, they stay here with Robin Yount, who is just as solid as they come across the board. All three of these could move up merely by adding 25 walks a season, but they’re all pretty free swingers.
#C Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
—
POR/ PHI
Jim Fregosi
25
265/344/446
21 SB
4.12 RF -12.3 ZR
NL
HOM
Judy Johnson
18
271/408/454
1.078 dEff
AL
MEM
Dobie Moore
20
291/352/427
26 SB
AL
BAL/ DET
Bobby Wallace
34
282/410/377
.986 fPct 4.73 RF
There is an argument that Dobie Moore and/or Judy Johnson should move up a level, given their offensive output and their age. At the same time, neither played a full season, so it seems prudent to leave them here.
Had Bobby Wallace been healthy all season, he certainly would have warranted a spot in the B Tier for his mix of OBP and defense, while Jim Fregosi seems to barely warrant a slot here, especially considering his shaky defense. But these are all legit starting SS’s in the league, so the C Tier seems about right (although Homestead’s decision about how to structure their infield may move Johnson away from SS).
#D Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
IND
Barry Larkin
23
230/308/404
27 SB
1.074 dEff
NL
BBB
Herman Long
27
243/271/445
24 SB
.962 fPct
NL
KCM
Ozzie Smith
30
235/317/343
64 SB
.992 fPct 12.2 ZR
—
MEM/ BRK
Vern Stephens
29
210/259/414
NL
HOM
Honus Wagner
25
230/285/415
37 SB
.957 fPct .906 dEff
Speaking of Homestead, Honus Wagner may in fact deserve to be knocked down. But he has power, a fair bit of speed, and just so much athleticism. But whether he ends up at 2B, SS, or 3B is yet to be seen.
Ozzie Smith is a hard one to evaluate, as it’s not clear if his defense and speed should move him here, or all the way up to C Tier. In the end, we decided to be conservative in our evaluation of defensive contributions.
#F Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
NYG
Brandon Crawford
30
221/268/381
.966 fPct
AL
NYY
Derek Jeter
33
248/305/439
4.10 RF -19.8 ZR .917 dEff
AL
CAG
Freddy Parent
29
229/270/292
5.01 RF 13.6 ZR
Derek Jeter‘s offense is probably D Tier, but those defensive numbers are quite bad, nudging him down a category. Brandon Crawford may be done entirely, and Freddy Parent, even considering his glovework, is just a massive bust since being obtained by Chicago.
#Rookies
Cal Ripken, Jr. (A Tier), Judy Johnson (C Tier), and Dobie Moore (C Tier).
#Fielding Notes
We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.
Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.
Justin Hampson and, perhaps more importantly, Gavvy Cravath have been recalled from rehab assignments. Without much to play for, Baltimore may limit Cravath’s appearances as they look to next season. Rafael Betancourt and Ken Griffey Sr were returned to the minors.
With RA Dickey‘s retirement, Baltimore decided to take a look at Dick Ellsworth, removing Dickey from the roster, although they have allowed him to remain with the team as he decides whether or not he has a career in coaching.
Dennis Martínez will get 2 more starts over the final 2 weeks of the season, and Ned Garvin will, as he continues his return from injury, take his regular turn: aside from that, it’s a bit of a free for all, although Kevin Tapani‘s strong debut guarantees him a few starts as well.
Ellsworth’s debut was fantastic: 6 plus innings and only a single run in a 4-2 victory over Los Angeles. Hampson also made his return with a scoreless 8th inning.
Sean Marshall was recalled from the DL with Joe Cascarella heading back to AAA.
#Cleveland Spiders
Lance Berkman and Ron Blomberg each went deep twice as the Spiders dominated Chicago, 13-6. The win (along with a victory in the resumption of a suspended game) pulled Cleveland, at least temporarily, 1/2 game ahead of New York.
#Detroit Wolverines
Wes Covington–coming off a 50 HR season at AAA–was recalled, along with IF Damion Easley and lefty Wilson Álvarez. Logan Hensley was returned, clearing room for Hank Aguirre‘s return from the DL.
JD Martinez went deep twice and the Wolverines edged in front of Miami for the final Wild Card spot with a 5-4 win over San Francisco.
#New York Black Yankees
Jorge Orta did nothing wrong to be sure, but with Grant Johnson due back from a rehab assignment, he was the odd man out, heading back to AAA. Ultimately, Johnson’s return means a reduction in time for quite a few players, most notably Derek Jeter, Don Mattingly, and Nick Etten.
Mattingly and Lou Gehrig had 2 homers each, and Johnson had 4 hits, including 3 doubles, as the Black Yankees overcame a poor start from Ron Guidry to beat Detroit, 11-8 in 10 innings.
The Black Yankees clinched their expected playoff spot in dramatic fashion, scoring 6 in the top of the 9th to top Detroit, 9-6. The win puts New York in a dead heat with Cleveland atop the Bill James Division and, as importantly, drops Detroit into a tie with Miami for the final AL Wild Card spot.
Gehrig hit 2 more out, reaching 62 for the season, and Babe Ruth added his WBL record 70th, as the Black Yankees beat Cleveland, 7-2. The win means New York will go into the final week of the season with a 1.5 game lead over the Spiders.
{Every year towards the end of the season, I do some legwork so when the awards roll around, it’s not as burdensome. This week, the fielders, next week, the rookies.}
We’re going to do this position by position, mixing the leagues, with the candidates listed alphabetically. 600 IP minimum, unless otherwise noted.
Last year, only 1 set of awards were given; this year, with the creation of the NL, there will be 2 at each position.
Some of the positions have their own things, but a note about some of the standard fielding statistics. Range Factor measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact.
Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.
#C
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
A
E
PB
ZR
RTO%
cERA
FRM
Johnny Bench
IND
NL
967
112
4
10
3.5
40%
5.26
7.6
Curt Blefary
BAL
AL
937
103
2
4
2.0
38%
5.68
1.6
Gary Carter
OTT
NL
900
114
5
9
4.3
42%
6.15
4.9
Josh Gibson
HOM
NL
973
102
3
6
-1.5
30%
5.98
7.7
Elrod Hendricks
HOD
NL
825
104
4
7
4.6
41%
5.47
3.9
Joe Mauer
POR
AL
974
129
5
6
2.7
37%
5.36
4.9
Thurman Munson
NYY
AL
957
91
6
2
3.0
36%
5.29
3.0
Mike Piazza
BRK
NL
966
88
2
12
-2.8
31%
4.62
4.5
Buster Posey
NYG
NL
933
100
4
9
2.6
39%
5.43
8.0
Iván Rodríguez
MCG
AL
917
116
2
14
5.3
47%
5.61
1.8
Ted Simmons
KCM
NL
907
108
5
5
2.4
37%
4.31
-2.3
IP = Innings Played; A = Assists; E = Errors; PB = Passed Balls; ZR = Zone Rating; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; cERA = Catcher’s ERA; FRM = Framing Runs Saved
Catcher’s stats are just all over the place.
It’s hard to take cERA and FRM all that seriously when they fall so far outside the bounds of the rest of the information at our disposal–although, to be fair, cERA is clearly tied to the quality of the staff and, as such, perhaps is best viewed as a net difference from the overall team ERA. Perhaps I’ll look at that for the actual awards.
Regardless, it feels like, if you look at a catcher’s primary job of making plays and keeping the opposition running game under control, Carter in the NL and Pudge in the AL are the frontrunners. The argument against each, if there is one, would have to focus on their league-leading (in the wrong way) PB numbers.
But this one doesn’t really feel close at this point.
Last year’s winner, Cleveland’s Louis Santop, has struggled so much offensively this year that his playing time has really dropped him out of contention, although his defensive performance remains top-notch.
#1B
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
A
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Mike Epstein
HOM
NL
957
952
56
80
4
8.93
3.0
1.016
Hank Greenberg
DET
AL
973
891
58
74
4
8.20
2.7
1.022
Kent Hrbek
POR
AL
884
846
45
79
5
8.57
1.8
1.028
Don Mattingly
NYY
AL
710
642
40
54
5
8.07
1.8
1.031
Dan McGann
BAL
AL
879
887
66
69
6
9.02
-1.9
.978
Boog Powell
KCM
NL
978
998
56
80
4
9.15
3.0
1.016
Joey Votto
IND
NL
942
863
62
76
0
8.25
4.5
1.040
Bill White
MEM
AL
793
812
35
66
6
9.15
0.4
1.007
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
The 2 best defensive 1Bs in the league–Kansas City’s Boog Powell and Indianapolis’ Joey Votto–are both in the NL. So the competition there is clear, as is, ultimately, the current frontrunner in Powell. Votto’s edge in the digital measures–ZR and Efficiency–may make this a more challenging choice at the end of the year.
In the AL, it’s far more confusing, but it feels like the discussion is between Detroit’s Hank Greenberg and the Black Yankees’ Don Mattingly. Mattingly hasn’t played a ton, so perhaps Greenberg edges him? Portland’s Kent Hrbek could probably edge into the discussion as well.
Will Clark of the New York Gothams, who won it last year, has been fine, but falls just short of contention.
#2B
Five 2B had only 3 errors, but 2 of them–Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson and Boston’s DJ LeMahieu–have under 700 innings at the position. LeMahieu is the leader in Defensive Efficiency, so he made the list, but Robinson did not.
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Roberto Alomar
OTT
NL
1035
511
62
10
4.36
-3.1
.978
Robinson Canó
KCM
NL
994
524
76
5
4.70
9.7
1.060
Eddie Collins
CAG
AL
995
528
77
11
4.67
-7.6
.943
Miller Huggins
BAL
AL
796
383
50
5
4.27
9.1
1.097
Chuck Knoblauch
CLE
AL
951
443
64
3
4.16
-9.6
.926
Nap Lajoie
HOM
NL
876
485
66
4
4.94
7.3
1.049
DJ LeMahieu
MEM
AL
644
345
53
3
4.78
7.7
1.110
Cookie Rojas
MCG
AL
738
363
62
3
4.39
-3.6
.965
Ryne Sandberg
HOD
NL
863
489
60
3
5.07
5.4
1.035
Chase Utley
PHI
NL
988
538
61
2
4.88
13.8
1.081
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
Ryne Sandberg and Napoleon Lajoie have had fine years at 2B, but Philadelphia’s Chase Utley has been fairly spectacular, leading the world in Zone Rating with excellent numbers across the board.
The AL is more confusing, as the best fielders–Miller Huggins and DJ LeMahieu–have yet to hit 800 innings in the field. But there really aren’t a lot of other contenders: Eddie Collins, who won it last year, has amassed a ton of time at 2B, and hence is among the leaders in the counting stats, but his other numbers are surprisingly bad.
#SS
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Jim Fregosi
POR/PHI
AL/NL
1077
497
60
8
4.09
-10.6
.940
Derek Jeter
NYY
AL
1061
504
67
16
4.14
-19.0
.911
Barry Larkin
IND
NL
705
380
49
9
4.74
8.3
1.085
Dick Lundy
SFS
AL
838
411
46
6
4.35
8.2
1.057
Freddy Parent
CAG
AL
888
508
56
11
5.04
13.2
1.058
Ozzie Smith
KCM
NL
1019
543
67
5
4.75
11.0
1.068
Arky Vaughan
CLE
AL
940
444
53
8
4.17
10.4
1.085
Robin Yount
MCG
AL
952
473
59
6
4.41
8.3
1.052
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
It feels like the choices here are pretty clear: Ozzie Smith in the NL and Freddy Parent in the AL. Smith should be uncontroversial, but Parent is subject to some discussion, as he is getting less and less playing time for the American Giants. If it’s not Parent, it is probably Arky Vaughan or Robin Yount, with the question being whether Yount’s surer hands outweigh Vaughan’s greater range.
George Davis, who won it last year, logged just under 50 games with Detroit before being sent to AAA and suffering a significant injury.
#3B
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Dick Allen
CAG
AL
1046
260
24
15
2.11
0.5
1.010
Buddy Bell
POR
AL
1045
296
23
8
2.48
7.9
1.054
Adrián Beltré
OTT
NL
936
272
6
7
2.55
0.3
1.007
Ron Cey
BRK
NL
956
278
24
7
2.55
4.7
1.035
Manny Machado
BAL
AL
857
259
14
10
2.61
0.9
1.013
Eddie Mathews
BBB
NL
1014
291
29
8
2.51
-2.6
.986
Doug Rader
LAA
AL
1047
287
26
13
2.35
0.9
1.021
Scott Rolen
PHI
NL
973
265
16
7
2.39
4.0
1.050
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
Portland’s Buddy Bell has probably been the best 3B in the WBL this season, so he should take the award in the AL. In the NL, it currently comes down to Scott Rolen and Ron Cey, whose numbers are pretty indistinguishable at this point, perhaps with a slight edge to Cey.
#LF
For the OF, DP is replaced by Outfield Kills, and we introduce ARM, a measurement of how many runs have resulted from runners taking extra bases on balls hit to the that fielder. Note that positive ARM ratings are relatively rare: runners do tag up.
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
K
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
ARM
Johnny Bates
CLE
AL
1006
205
4
2
2.09
7.0
1.053
-1.0
Bob Bescher
IND
NL
681
149
1
2
1.94
-4.3
.950
-2.1
Don Buford
LAA/NYG
AL/NL
705
127
0
1
1.61
-2.8
.957
-0.6
Rickey Henderson
SFS
AL
1040
199
3
4
1.69
10.0
1.104
-2.8
Sherry Magee
PHI
NL
658
127
1
0
1.74
3.7
1.046
-1.9
Bob Nieman
BBB
NL
720
145
4
2
1.79
-1.0
.961
-1.6
Frank Robinson
BAL
AL
897
184
4
2
1.83
0.3
.998
-1.8
Babe Ruth
NYY
AL
627
128
1
2
1.81
5.7
1.084
-1.3
Roy White
BRK
NL
1006
213
5
2
1.89
9.3
1.075
-1.2
Jim Wynn
HOU
NL
755
140
0
2
1.64
-4.4
.955
3.3
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
It feels like Roy White has a shot at being the first repeat winner as he has once again proven incredibly dependable in LF for Brooklyn, while adding more Kills and excellent supporting numbers.
In the AL, It feels like it’s the range of Rickey Henderson against the overall dependability of Johnny Bates–who actually makes more plays the Rickey, but some of that is down to staff effects.
Have to call out the nutty ARM rating for Jim Wynn, which is as flukish as fluke can be.
#CF
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
K
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
ARM
Paul Blair
BAL
AL
838
251
3
2
2.73
10.4
1.084
-2.3
Chili Davis
DET
AL
979
283
13
8
2.53
-12.5
.928
1.5
Willie Davis
PHI
NL
898
287
4
3
2.85
15.2
1.109
-2.0
Curtis Granderson
BBB
NL
974
317
1
5
2.88
4.8
1.030
-4.6
Pete Hill
HOU
NL
800
222
2
2
2.47
0.7
.997
-2.8
Willie Mays
NYG
NL
1065
327
3
4
2.73
11.3
1.046
-4.2
Willie McGee
KCM
NL
845
261
10
7
2.71
-5.9
.963
-1.4
Mike Trout
LAA
AL
940
282
2
1
2.69
-0.2
1.006
-3.3
Vernon Wells
CAG
AL
624
209
2
3
2.97
-5.2
.968
-2.6
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
Not a lot to pick from in the AL, which increases Paul Blair‘s chance at a repeat selection. It probably comes down to Blair’s overall excellence against the spectacular highlight reel nature of Chili Davis‘ year: Davis hasn’t made all the plays, but has thrown out 13 runners. Mike Trout is in the conversation, but Blair edges him across the board, and is the likely frontrunner.
In the NL, things are much deeper, and we run into the question of how to weigh playing time. Willie Mays has similar numbers to Willie Davis, but over 200 more innings in the field, which I think is enough to give him the edge. Some mention should be made of the steady Curtis Granderson and the surprising 10 kills from Kansas City’s Willie McGee.
#RF
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
K
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
ARM
Beals Becker
BRK
NL
1022
233
7
3
2.03
3.0
1.007
0.7
Mookie Betts
MEM
AL
775
166
1
0
1.93
6.8
1.076
-3.7
Roberto Clemente
HOM
NL
973
243
8
6
2.19
5.6
1.050
-3.1
Larry Doby
CLE
AL
768
186
1
7
2.10
5.0
1.064
-4.2
Stan Musial
KCM
NL
801
157
2
4
1.72
7.0
1.072
0.8
Ichiro Suzuki
LAA
AL
1035
227
5
0
1.97
5.4
1.036
-2.4
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
This is very close in both leagues.
In the NL, you could make an argument for all 3 of the contenders: Brooklyn’s Beals Becker has been steady across the board; Stan Musial covers a huge amount of ground for Kansas City and has a higher ARM than Becker; and Roberto Clemente makes the most plays and has the most Kills. I think it’s Clemente or Musial, with Musial slightly in front, maybe?
Over in the AL, it’s between Mookie Betts and Ichiro Suzuki, neither of whom have made an error in RF this season. Betts has been slightly better with the glove, Suzuki slightly better with the arm. Perhaps Suzuki, partially because he has played more innings in RF than anyone.
Last year’s winner, Johnny Callison, has done well this season, but is just out of the conversation. Mention should be made of Ottawa’s Larry Walker as well: Walker doesn’t cover a ton of ground, but has only made a single error in RF this season.
#P
125 IP minimum.
A few additional stat for hurlers, including the number of steal attempts and the % thrown out as well as the number of runs gained through their catcher’s ability to frame strikes. Obviously, both of these are highly dependent on the quality of backstop, but they also do impact the evaluation of the pitcher.
We’ve also taking out E and DP as stats, as odd as that may seem, as there is just not enough variance to really make much of them.
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
RNG
ZR
Eff
SBA
RTO%
FRM
Roger Clemens
HOU
NL
183
13
0.64
-3.0
1.659
61
25
-0.4
Gerrit Cole
LAA
AL
155
21
1.22
0.5
1.438
44
32
0.4
Pud Galvin
LAA
AL
130
24
1.66
1.3
1.149
31
39
-0.7
Bump Hadley
SFS
AL
164
30
1.65
-0.3
.996
62
34
0.5
Walter Johnson
POR
AL
189
19
0.91
4.8
1.217
28
61
0.3
José Méndez
MCG
AL
200
20
0.90
4.4
1.086
43
56
-0.7
Stubby Overmire
MEM
AL
175
21
1.08
2.2
.853
16
63
-0.0
Gaylord Perry
NYG
NL
185
31
1.51
-0.3
.996
35
29
0.7
Toad Ramsey
HOU
NL
196
18
0.78
1.0
.913
42
41
-0.5
Bob Rush
HOD
NL
156
26
1.44
3.3
.996
19
63
0.0
Jack Taylor
HOD
NL
163
19
1.05
5.6
.996
41
63
0.0
Doc White
IND
NL
130
8
0.55
1.8
.996
18
50
1.9
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency; SBA = Stolen Bases Attempted; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; FRM = Framing Runs
Who knows? Small sample sizes are rough, although it is nice to see last year’s winner, Jack Taylor, make a return appearance.
Taylor makes a lot of plays, and is very hard to run on, both of which count for quite a bit. I think an argument could be made for Pud Galvin, as well as for Taylor’s teammate, Bob Rush, but I would expect a fair bit of this to change over the final month of the season.
Nothing is ever good enough for this ownership group, so despite top tier talent (especially on offense) and a fairly clear route to the postseason, there are rumblings of discontent in the Bronx.
The Black Yankees are permanently in a win-now mentality, and this year is no different. They have a frighteningly good offense, but can struggle a lot on the mound, especially in the middle innings.
THE OFFENSE
The Black Yankees can rake. They are, of course, led by the irresistible Babe Ruth, but there really isn’t an easy out in the group (and, due to a slight slump from Ruth and a surge from him, Lou Gehrig has actually overtaken the Babe in many of the key offensive measures). They are second in the league in homeruns, six everyday players have SLG over .500, six have OBP’s over .350. They just have the ability to score a ton of runs.
#What’s Going Right
Babe Ruth doing Babe Ruth things. The Bambino has an OPS of 1.118, 57 homeruns, 133 RBI, and 117 runs scored. His performance is even more remarkable when you consider that his BA has hovered around .275 most of the year–that’s a lot of walks and a lot of power.
Lou Gehrig continues his role as Babe Jr, trailing the Bambino by about 50 points of OPS.
The Black Yankees have four players with over 40 homers: Ruth, Gehrig with 48, Mickey Mantle with 44, and Mike Schmidt with 40.
Eric Davis, who still struggles to play everyday, joins that group, giving New York 5 players with OPS over .900.
#What’s Not Going Right
The quintet featured above have struck out over 800 times between them, led by Mantle’s 179, but both Ruth and Gehrig are well north of 150 as well.
More meh than not going right, veteran Rogers Hornsby, brought in to solve the struggles for the Black Yankees at 2B, has been fine, but is hitting at a slightly lower level than he did for Portland.
Derek Jeter continues to be the weakest point in the lineup. But a SS with an OPS over .725 and solid defense is certainly nothing to be overly concerned with (and, the acquisition of HR Johnson at the trading break gives New York a young player to eventually take over from Hornsby or Jeter down the road).
THE PITCHING
The pitching isn’t bad, but it isn’t great. The back end of the rotation and the middle of the bullpen are especially concerning.
#What’s Going Right
Andy Pettitte has been a great acquisition, sitting at 15-8 with a decent ERA.
Ron Guidry continues to pitch better than his surface numbers, but there are whispers that he is beginning to decline. Guidry continues to strike ’em out at a prodigious rate, but his record sits at only 8-7.
Goose Gossage has seized the closer role, with 15 saves and a WHIP barely over 1.00.
Hoyt Wilhelm, an expensive purchase at the trading break, has started well, perhaps offering a solve to the middle innings for New York.
#What’s Not Going Right
The most likely candidate for the 3rd starter spot in the postseason is Dave Righetti who (a) makes it 3 lefties in a row behind Pettitte and Guidry, and (b) was injured for much of the summer.
Tony Brizzolara, Herm Wehmeier, and (based on minor league performance) Roy Evans have all shown initial promise to fill the back end of the rotation. They’ve all flamed out, and Red Ruffing has fared no better.
Aroldis Chapman lost the closer role to Gossage, despite amassing 18 saves. He has adopted well to an earlier role from the pen, so perhaps this is in the wrong section? But his initial performance was very rough.
It’s not a great system, but there is some important talent in areas of need, so maybe that’s what really matters. On the mound, both Noah Syndergaard and Whitey Ford (injured for much of the year, delaying his WBL appearance) have clear promise, and you have to think someone out of OFs Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Clyde Milan or IFs Josh Harrison, Harry Bauchman, or Mark Grudzielanek will have WBL careers.
WHAT’S NEEDED
Just win, baby. A league championship will forgive all things.
Storylines to Watch
Key Questions from Spring Training
It’s all about the bullpen, according to the media. Not a bad take, and one that has caused a ton of consternation throughout the season.
There will be a lot of attention on last year’s ERA champion, Andy Pettitte–with some of that focused on what the loss of Albert Belle means for what was truly a fearsome bench last year. Yeah, this one has worked out. The offense hasn’t really struggled, the bench continues to produce, and Pettitte is probably the de facto staff ace.
FEATURED SERIES
This one was easy: if the Black Yankees sweep these 3 games at Cleveland, they take over first place in the Bill James Division.
Projected Starters
New York’s starter listed first.
Ron Guidry (8-7, 4.41) @ Bill Steen (11-7, 5.02) Dave Righetti (7-4, 5.15) @ Bob Feller (9-3, 4.62) Andy Pettitte (15-8, 4.32) @ Cy Young (13-6, 5.16)
The rotation setup as well as it could for New York, but this Cleveland team is tough. Should be a good series.
Game One
Game one is a matchup of hard throwers, with the matchup staying as advertised: New York’s Ron Guidry against Cleveland’s Bob Feller, as the Spiders delayed Bill Steen‘s start by a day.
Eric Davis scored on a wild pitch in the top of the first, but the Black Yankees had to wait until the top of the 3rd for their first hit, a solo homerun from Derek Jeter. Through four innings, we had a very Bob Feller start: only 1 hit and 7 strikeouts, but 4 walks and 2 runs.
Meanwhile, Guidry gave up a 2 run shot to Evan Longoria in the bottom of the 4th to tie the game. Feller went 6, fanning 10 and leaving with the game still tied. His relief, Al Smith, gave up a 2-run double to Grant Johnson, but again Guidry was hurt by the long ball, giving up a tying 2 run shot to Ed Bailey.
In the bottom of the 9th, Larry Doby doubled to right off Aroldis Chapman. One out later, Goose Gossage was summoned from New York’s bullpen, and promptly plunked both John Ellis and Chuck Knoblauch to load the bases with meaningless runners … or not … as he walked Arky Vaughan to force in the winning run.
Not the start New York wanted, by a long shot, and they drop to 3.5 games behind Cleveland in the standings.
The Spiders struckout 17 on the day: 10 from Feller, 3 from Smith (all 3 of the outs he recorded), and another 4 in Gearrin’s 2 innings of work.
Dave Righetti will take the mound for New York, opposed by Cleveland’s Bill Steen.
Steen opened the game by walking Eric Davis and HR Johnson … and then striking out Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Mickey Mantle. Easy. He then gave up a 3 run shot to Derek Jeter in the 2nd for an early 3-0 New York lead. Another run scored in the 3rd on a groundout after an error and 2 more walks.
Meanwhile, Righetti had pitched a scoreless 5 innings, allowing only 3 hits.
Steen ended up getting 2 outs in the 6th before Jeter’s 3rd hit chased him from the game having fanned 8 while walking 5.
A solo shot from Lou Gehrig seemed to seal the deal, but the Black Yankees’ relievers imploded, with Evan Longoria hitting a grandslam in the 8th, closing the game to a 5-4 lead for New York. However, after a couple of new recalled arms allowed the Spiders back in (Jim Corsi and Roy Evans), Aroldis Chapman and Goose Gossage were able to shut the door, evening the series at 1.
A pretty important game, this: a win will pull the Black Yankees within 1.5 games of Cleveland, and the race will be on in the Bill James Division. A loss, and the gap grows to 3.5 games, with the Spiders having taken 2 out of 3 in the head to head matchup. It will be a matchup of aces, or at least potential aces, as New York’s Andy Pettitte squares off against Cleveland’s Cy Young.
Young hasn’t quite been ace material this year, and that pattern continued as Eric Davis opened the game with homerun, his 27th of the year, and HR Johnson followed with a double down the left field line. But sometimes, Cy Young has been quite strong, and here he struck out Lou Gehrig, Mike Schmidt, and Mickey Mantle to close out the first, holding the Black Yankees to a single tally.
We stayed at 1-0 until the top of the 4th, when Rogers Hornsby doubled in a run and scored himself on a Don Mattingly single. Manny Sanguillén plated Mattingly and, in the following inning, Gehrig hit his 50th of the season. Johnny Bates put the Spiders on the board in the bottom of the 5th with a solo shot.
So, after 5 innings, 5-1 in favor of the Black Yankees.
Ron Blomberg hit one out in the 6th, and Cleveland chased Pettitte from the game with 2 outs and 2 on. The Spiders’ best player, Tris Speaker, would be called upon to pinch hit against Pettitte’s replacement, Noah Syndergaard. A run scored on a passed ball, but Syndergaard whiffed Speaker, leaving the score 5-3.
Davis’ second shot of the day made it 6-3, but Speaker threw out Schmidt at 2nd to end the top of the 7th.
Davis’ shot was important as Lance Berkman‘s 45th of the season, hit with a runner on, closed it to 6-5.
The bullpen has been a struggle for New York all season, but the acquisition of Hoyt Wilhelm has been promising. Here, with both Goose Gossage and Aroldis Chapman unavailable, he was asked to do more than merely bridge the last few innings. Wilhelm came through, ending the game with 2 and a third scoreless for his first save as a Black Yankee.
Cleveland’s closer, Terry Adams, will miss about a week with a strained elbow.
So, a sweep would have been nice, but cutting a game off the Spiders’ lead was what was needed. Doing so without any homeruns from Babe Ruth is a good sign, as there is little doubt Ruth will again catch fire.
With the August trade deadline just around the corner, seemed to be a good time to take a look at the likely sellers and buyers, and some players that are likely to find new homes by the end of next week.
Some notes on these:
Needs reflect places where the minor league systems are thin on talent and the general shape of WBL level talent needed.
The second three bullets (Prospects, AAA Help, WBL Help) are possible players that could be available in the right context..
#BUYERS
These are teams looking to solidify their talent or make a push for the post-season. In a perfect world, they have some young talent to spare as well.
#Birmingham Black Barons
Yeah, they’re in 5th place, but they’re also only 4 games back, so there’s hope. The Black Barons have been ingenious at past deadlines, we’ll see if they can continue the trend.
Needs: IF, P, Minor League SS/3B
Prospects: OF Melky Cabrera, Curt Flood, Gary Matthews; IF Nate Colbert, Hal Trosky AAA Help: P Tommy Bond; IF Pie Traynor MLB Help: OF Bob Nieman
#Cleveland Spiders
Could use another SP, as well as a help in the middle infield–Chuck Knoblauch is skating along on last year’s performance, and there isn’t any depth to speak of at 2B/SS despite Steve Sax‘s excellent first 50 PA’s.
Needs: Minor League 2B/SS.
Prospects: OF Paul O’Neill, Kenny Lofton; IF Johnny Hodapp AAA Help: P Chuck Porter, Claude Passeau; IF Bob Elliott, Brook Jacoby MLB Help: IF Willie McCovey
#Homestead Grays
A Wild Card spot is likely for the Grays, who have a powerhouse offense and a desperate need for pitching. With some young talent blocked, they may be able to make some moves.
Needs: Bullpen is aging
Prospects: OF Max Carey, Paul Waner; IF Freddie Lindstrom AAA Help: OF Starling Marte; IF Jeff Kent, P Brickyard Kennedy MLB Help: OF Goose Goslin
#Houston Colt 45’s
Another team caught between a wild card chase and building for the future, the Colt 45’s would love to address their one ongoing need, which is a catcher to take over from the aging Jorge Posada, as some in the organization are not yet sold on Will Smith as the longterm solve behind the plate. There is a crunch at 1B/DH as well, as there really aren’t enough AB’s to go around for both Paul Goldschmidt and the recently demoted Andrés Galaragga.
Needs: Minor League C, SS.
Prospects: IF Bucky Dent, Travis Jackson, Wes Helms; OF César Cedeño, Hunter Pence, Shin-Soo Choo AAA Help: P Mike Sirotka, Óscar Tuero; IF Carney Lansford, Aramis Ramírez, OF Gorman Thomas, Johnny Damon MLB Help: Various bullpen pieces may be possible
#Indianapolis ABC’s
Another team riding the wild card roller coaster. The ABC’s are solid offensively, but struggle some behind their top end starters. There are some blocked players–perhaps most notably Jake Stenzel–so there are some pieces available.
Needs: Minor League OF
Prospects: OF Jim Eisenreich, IF Pokey Reese, Sean Casey, Hal Morris AAA Help: P Johnny Vandeer Meer; OF Jody Gerut, Dave Henderson, Ed Swartwood; IF Dan Driessen MLB Help: OF Jake Stenzel, Bob Bescher, IF Ed Charles
#Kansas City Monarchs
This Monarchs team will make the playoffs a year or two ahead of schedule so the choice of how much to surrender for immediate success is a bit challenging. At some point, some of the positional logjams need to be sorted out (Albert Pujols, Dale Murphy, and Ducky Medwick; Willie McGee and Cool Papa Bell), but it’s not clear that now is that time.
Needs: Minor League C; WBL Offense
Prospects: OF Wade Johnston, Earl Averill; IF Keston Hiura, Pat Burrell AAA Help: P Adam Wainwright, Jack Quinn; IF Ken Boyer, Andre Thornton; OF Merv Rettenmund, Jim King MLB Help: P Matt Morris, Luke Hamlin
#New York Black Yankees
Once again the Black Yankees are trying to find the right piece to extend their postseason run. At some point, they’ll need to solve their post Derek Jeter needs at SS, but this is probably not that time.
Needs: Minor League OF; P; future SS.
Prospects: OF Rob Deer, Clyde Milan AAA Help: OF Roger Maris; IF Tom Herr, Red Rolfe; P AJ Burnett MLB Help: P Rheal Cormier, Red Ruffing, Waite Hoyt
#MEH
A mix of teams doing well enough not need anything (San Francisco) and those not willing to give up much because they like their current talent composition moving into Year 3. Never say never, as these teams do have some pieces, but they are far less motivated to get something done at the deadline.
#Brooklyn Royal Giants
This team is just beginning to gel, but they could use some offense and they are one of the few franchises with arms to spare.
Needs: SS if unconvinced by Vern Stephens; Minor League 1B
Prospects: OF Matty Alou, Raúl Mondesi, Don Mueller; IF Sonny Jackson, Ken McMullen, Maury Wills; P Doc Newton, Zach Britton MLB Help: IF Germany Smith, Dick Bertell AAA Help: IF Jim Gentile, Eric Karros; C Kelly Shoppach; P Ron Perranoski
#Detroit Wolverines
They’re in an odd spot: on the one hand, they are likely to be in the wild card chase; on the other, this is a team well positioned for the future, and eager to cement that status. There are a lot of pieces that are over 30, but none–other than perhaps Oscar Gamble–are key cogs in the Wolverines’ machine.
Needs: Minor League 3B; IF, esp SS; P.
Prospects: IF Wander Franco MLB Help: OF Oscar Gamble AAA Help: OF Brady Clark, Wes Covington; IF Jimmy Collins; P Dennis Rasmussen
#Miami Cuban Giants
The Cuban Giants have an outside shot at a wildcard slot, but this is a team building for the future. As such, I would expect them to stand pat, or perhaps move some end of roster pieces for minor league depth.
Needs: Minor League OF, 3B, 1B; WBL P.
Prospects: OF Roy Thomas, Carlos Morán MLB Help: P Sandy Consuegra, Kenshin Kawakami; OF Andy Pafko AAA Help: IF Nellie Fox
#Ottawa Mounties
Even though the Mounties have a shot at the playoffs, this is a team trying to position itself for the future, which basically means begging everyone and anyone for pitching.
Needs: Minor League SS, 3B, C. SP.
Prospects: OF Warren Cromartie, Willie Upshaw, Willie Keeler, Leon Roberts MLB Help: P Bryn Smith; IF Roy Sievers; OF Rick Monday AAA Help: IF John Olerud; OF Terry Puhl, Bob Allison; C Emil Gross; P Chris Bosio
#Philadelphia Stars
The Stars are on the fringe of the playoffs, but really this is a team aiming at cementing and building around its emerging nucleus. As such, some of its useful veterans may be available; at the same time, Philadelphia would love to add some pitching and address its issues in the middle infield.
Needs: MI, P, WBL Offense.
Prospects: ??? MLB Help: OF Rico Carty; P Bob Howry, Robin Roberts, Pedro Feliciano; IF Art Fletcher, Ted Kluszewski AAA Help: OF Bobby Abreu; IF Jung Ho Kang, Dolph Camilli, Cecil Cooper; C Sherm Lollar
#San Francisco Sea Lions
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That said, if an easy piece comes available, it’s unlikely the Sea Lions ignore the opportunity.
Needs: Minor League 1B
Prospects: OF Jules Thomas, Matt Holliday; IF Freddie Freeman; P Jair Jurrjens MLB Help: AAA Help: IF Dick Green, Denny Walling; OF Josh Reddick; P Rube Walberg
#Wandering House of David
Even the House of David isn’t convinced their playoff chances are real. Still … they might be. So it’s a bit of a quandary in terms of whether they should move some of their young talent or not. The challenge is the roster really doesn’t make a ton of sense: CF is overly crowded, 1B/DH as well, and there is an abundance of talent at 2B.
Needs: P
Prospects: OF Tony Conigliaro; IF Billy Herman MLB Help: OF Jim Edmonds, George Gore; IF Mark McGwire, Richie Hebner AAA Help: P Joaquín Andújar; IF Tom Hutton, Mark Grace; OF Tracy Jones
#SELLERS
Teams with either an excess of talent, or who have thrown in the towel on the season and have some veteran pieces that may be attractive.
#Baltimore Black Sox
Last year’s champs, this year’s dunces. Baltimore believes in its young core, a belief that may see them retain FA acquisition Gavvy Cravath, but even he may be had for the right price.
Needs: all P, Minor League OF.
MLB Help: IF Bobby Wallace, Dan McGann; P Buddy Groom, Connie Johnson, Joe Beggs AAA Help: P Ken Johnson, Kevin Tapani, Christhian Martínez; OF Ken Griffey, Sr; IF Brian Roberts
#Chicago American Giants
The season cannot end soon enough. Chicago has talent to be a contender, but nothing has gone right for them this season. They are willing to blow up their pitching staff, from a how much worse could it be perspective.
Needs: Minor League OF, C; prime P
Prospects: IF Jorge Orta; OF Walter Davis, Lenny Dykstra MLB Help: P Akinori Otsuka, Joe Lake, Mark Buehrle, Hoyt Wilhelm, David Price; IF Paul Konerko, Freddy Parent; OF Vernon Wells AAA Help: OF Rocky Colavito, Magglio Ordóñez; C Michael McKenry
#Los Angeles Angels
It hasn’t been a bad year for the Angels, but they are still a player or three away. There is a lot of mound talent in the organization, but they could use some long term solutions at SS, 3B, and C.
Needs: Minor League OF, C, 2B; WBL Offense.
Prospects: OF Norm Miller MLB Help: IF Eddie Joost AAA Help: OF Elmer Valo; IF Mark Ellis; P Rich Hill
#Memphis Red Sox
There is hope in Beantown. Just not for this year. There also are some pieces that may hold attraction for contenders, most notably 1B Bill White (with the Red Sox happy to turn 1B over to David Ortiz) and closer Jonathan Papelbon. There is a lot of congestion at various positions that needs to clarify over time.
Needs: Minor League C, SS; SP; 2B/SS
Prospects: IF Dustin Pedroia, OF Joe Rudi, Dwight Evans, Lefty O’Doul, Candy Jim Taylor, P Jim Kaat MLB Help: P Tommy de la Cruz, Jonathan Papelbon; IF Bill White, DJ LeMahieu, Iván De Jesús, Nomar Garciaparra AAA Help: IF George Scott, Dustin Pedroia
#New York Gothams
With this season pretty much scrapped, the Gothams are looking to the future. Which puts them in an interesting spot, as they have a fair number of useful parts on the wrong side of 30. But it’s not a total fire sale, as the team isn’t that far away from competing.
Needs: Minor League SS, C, 2B; SS
Prospects: OF Rick Manning MLB Help: P Mike Norris, Juan Marichal, Troy Percival, Gaylord Perry; IF Joe Adcock, Larry Doyle, Terry Turner AAA Help: OF Carl Furillo, Steve Kemp, Charlie Hamburg; IF George Kell; P Liván Hernández, Wei-Yin Chen, Tony Mullane, Guy Hecker
#Portland Sea Dogs
In some sense, the Sea Dogs did their selling already, both during the offseason and the all star break. But this year is still a wash for Portland, so anything they can do to help build for the future will be worthwhile.
Needs: 2B/SS, overall WBL Offense.
Prospects: ??? MLB Help: OF Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper; IF Gil Hodges; P Mark Melancon AAA Help: IF Don Baylor, Rafael Palmeiro; OF Walt Bond, Jerald Clark
Buddy Groom started a rehab assignment, and should be joined at AAA by Bobby Wallace later in the week. Once Groom is ready, look for him to replace the struggling John Wetteland in the Black Sox bullpen.
Connie Johnson and Justin Hampson combined on a 2-hit shutout, blanking Portland 7-0. Johnson’s record improved to 5-6 and, perhaps more importantly, he made a strong argument for some more opportunities as a starter.
As expected, Wallace was able to start a rehab assignment at AAA, joining Groom, who still needs some time there before being recalled.
#Cleveland Spiders
Hank Gastright was returned to AAA, with Firpo Marberry being recalled from his rehab assignment.
Tris Speaker went deep twice, but Cleveland couldn’t hold off Miami, falling 11-7 to the Cuban Giants.
Needing a starter, the Spiders returned Sergio Romo to AAA, recalling Wilbur Cooper. Faced in the same situation later in the week, Cooper went back down with Steve Gromek recalled to make his WBL debut.
The Spiders had themselves a day, battering Miami 21-0. Cy Young threw the complete game shutout, allowing 7 hits while fanning 9. But the story really was the offense, led by Ron Blomberg, who had 4 hits (including his 30th and 31st homeruns), drove in 6, and scored a WBL record 6 times. Evan Longoria drove in 7, and Longoria and Larry Doby each also had 4 hits. In addition to Blomberg’s 2, Longoria, Doby, and Louis Santop also hit homeruns.
Lance Berkman slammed 3 homeruns for the second time this season, but the Spiders couldn’t preserve a lead in the top of the 9th, losing to Los Angeles, 8-7.
Berkman may be the hottest hitter in the league right now, as he hit another 2 out in a game Cleveland won in the bottom of the 12th on a solo shot from Johnny Bates, triumphing over Los Angeles, 6-5.
#Detroit Wolverines
Pete Conway will miss over a month with a strained oblique muscle. Claude Passeau returned to the Wolverines’ bullpen from AAA.
Both Billy Hoeft and Mike Griffin began rehab assignments, looking to return next week. Later in the week, Buddy Napier returned to the injured list, expected to miss about a month, opening a spot for Hoeft’s return.
Justin Verlander closed the first half out strong, combining with Hoeft and Chad Bradford on a 3-hit shutout of Memphis. Al Kaline and Bob Bailey went deep for the Wolverines, and Ty Cobb had 2 hits to nudge his average back over .400 in the 7-0 victory.
#Memphis Red Sox
Derek Lowe returned to AAA with Skel Roach‘s recall from a rehab assignment.
Gabby Hartnett went deep twice, leading Memphis to a 10-5 victory over the Black Yankees. Manny Ramírez did the same, homering twice in a 7-3 win over New York with Len Barker improving to 6-9 with a solid outing.
#New York Black Yankees
That was fast. There was a lot of optimism around Roy Evans‘ promotion to the Black Yankees. 3 games, 4 IP, and a 27.00 ERA later, he’s back in AAA with AJ Burnett returning to the fold.
Could the answer to the back end of the Black Yankees’ rotation be … Herm Wehmeier? Wehmeier combined with Goose Gossage on a 4-hit shutout of Memphis, improving to 4-0 on the year with Gossage picking up his 10th save in the 9-0 whitewashing.
Eric Davis hit 2 out and Babe Ruth added his league-leading 41st as the Black Yankees rode a strong outing from Andy Pettitte to beat Baltimore, 12-2. Pettitte improved to 10-5 on the year. However, Ruth was plunked on the hip in the game, and will miss some time–thankfully, it looks like only a few days.
Mike Schmidt went deep twice and Thurman Munson and Derek Jeter joined Schmidt with 3 hits each as the Black Yankees defeated Baltimore in 10 innings.
Don Mattingly will miss about a week, prompting the Black Yankees to place him on the DL and recall Josh Harrison from AAA.
We’ll preview the All Star selections, so this will be a bit of a longer entry.
#Awards
Lots of awards, as we moved into a new month!
First, the smaller ones. Houston‘s Jeff Bagwell was the National League Player of the Week, hitting .409 with 5 homeruns while Eric Davis of the juggernaut New York Black Yankees was the American League Player of the Week, hitting .481 with 5 homers in the same span.
In the monthly awards, the American League Rookie of the Month for June was San Francisco‘s Turkey Stearnes, who hit .378 with 11 homeruns in the month.
Kansas City‘s A. Rube Foster was both the National League Rookie of the Month and the NL Pitcher of the Month, going 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA, as the young hurler announced himself as, at least so far, a premier WBL starter. The American League Pitcher of the Month was Bump Hadley, Stearnes’ teammate in San Francisco. Hadley was 5-0 in June with a 2.66 ERA.
Ottawa‘s star backstop, Gary Carter, was the National League Batter of the Month, hitting .397 with 14 homeruns in June while in the American League, unsurprisingly, the award went to the stellar Ty Cobb. The Detroit OF hit .408 with 11 homers in June, which actually brought his overall average down in that span (Cobb is leading the WBL in BA at .418).
#Team Performance
Yawn.
The Black Yankees and the Sea Lions continue to be the 2 best teams in the league, leading their divisions by 5 and 11 games respectively.
The Effa Manley Division might offer some excitement in the second half, as Brooklyn still leads Homestead by 4 and the New York Gothams by 5.5. But the only true race is in the Marvin Miller Division, where Kansas City has overtaken Indianapolis, now leading the ABC’s by 2.5 games.
The Houston Colt 45’s are 8-2 over their last 10 games, but still sit 5 games under .500. Detroit and Philadelphia are moving in the other direction, with each team managing only 2 wins in their last 10 contests.
Birmingham still has the worst record in the league, but they have moved over .400, sitting at .410 (34-49).
#Player Performance
Batters
It’s still Ty Cobb’s world, although Babe Ruth is doing Babe Ruth things, and reached the 40 homerun plateau during the last week.
José Canseco (MCG). 254/375/734. 36 HR. Oscar Charleston (IND). 336/386/642. 103 H, 9 3B. Ty Cobb (DET). 416/464/885. 116 H, 37 2B, 8 3B, 5.8 WAR. Josh Gibson (HOM). 392/481/748. 5.1 WAR. Tony Gwynn (HOU). 389/425/601. 116 H. Pete Hill (HOU). 291/371/487. 10 3B. Joe Jackson (CAG). 356/398/588. 103 H, 39 2B. Stan Musial (KCM). 329/392/573. 37 2B. Babe Ruth (NYY). 292/426/775. 40 HR, 90 RBI, 82 R, 68 BB, 5.0 WAR. Larry Walker (OTT). 293/369/721. 36 HR, 85 RBI.
Rickey Henderson (San Francisco) and Tim Raines (Ottawa) continue to be 1-2 in the league in steals, but it’s getting closer, with Henderson’s edge now 60 to 53.
Pitchers
Starters
While his performance has been somewhat below par, the New York Gothams’ Christy Mathewson continues to be definition of workhorse, leading the WBL with 20 starts, 2 ahead of a bevy of hurlers with 18.
7 pitchers have reached double-digits in wins, with Luis Padrón (Indianapolis) leading the way at 11-2. All 7 are included below. Houston’s Toad Ramsey was so dominant for so long, he is still the top starter in the league despite a recent dip in form, but I would probably choose Lefty Grove of San Francisco or the emergent A. Rube Foster.
Frank Castillo (KCM). 10-1, 4.22. A. Rube Foster (KCM). 5-1, 2.30. .203 BABIP, 0.98 WHIP, 3.70 FIP. Lefty Grove (SFS). 10-4, 3.71. 126 IP, 132 K, 3.1 WAR. Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-4, 3.86. 143 K, 3.80 FIP, 3.2 WAR. Bump Hadley (SFS). 11-4, 4.21, 3.50 FIP, 3.0 WAR. Orel Hershiser (BRK). 10-4, 3.87. Luis Padrón (IND). 11-2, 4.21. 3.57 FIP, 3.3 WAR. Eddie Plank (SFS). 11-3, 3.54. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 11-4, 2.77. 124 IP, 152 K, 0.89 WHIP, 2.80 FIP, 5.2 WAR. Ed Walsh (CAG). 6-3, 3.41. 1 Sv, .201 BABIP. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 7-7, 3.41. 3.66 FIP, 3.4 WAR.
Relievers
We’ve listed the top 3 leaders in saves, all 5 of the relievers who have reached double digits in Holds, as well as all 5 with an ERA below 2.00.
18 IP minimum.
Rod Beck (SFS). 3-2, 3.47. 21 Sv. Rheal Cormier (NYY). 0-2, 6.03. 11 H. Eric Gagne (BRK). 1-1, 2.92. 19 Sv. Ken Howell (SFS). 4-1, 1.72. 1 Sv, 4 H. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-4, 4.13. 1 Sv, 10 H. Brad Kilby (PHI). 1-2, 4.39. 2 Sv, 10 H. Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 2-1, 1.14. 2 Sv, 11 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 4-2, 3.45. 20 Sv. Rob Murphy (IND). 1-3, 3.75. 1 Sv, 11 H. Robb Nen (NYG). 3-2, 1.95. 9 Sv, 6 H. Ron Robinson (SFS). 1-0, 1.64. 3 Sv, 3 H. BJ Ryan (OTT). 1-2, 4.15. 1 Sv, 10 H. Harley Young (BBB). 1-0, 1.23. 3 Sv, 5 H.
#Injury Report
Portland lost half of their backstop platoon as AJ Pierzynski will be out for close to a month. News was worse for Ottawa, as SP Bob Moose is out for close to a year.
Houston’s Casey Stengel and Kansas City’s Lou Brock are awaiting diagnosis on their current injuries.
Baltimore’s Bobby Wallace, Detroit’s Billy Hoeft, and the Black Yankees’ Dave Righetti should all begin rehab assignments this week.
#The All Star Candidates
We’ll look at these by position, mixing the two leagues for the time being.
For each position, we’ve included as many players as it takes to have at least 3-4 candidates from each league, highlighting some pretty severe disparities in talent between the AL and the NL.
If players don’t qualify for the batting stats, their playing time is noted, as are some other potentially influencing factors. This indicates a leader at that position among the players listed (but not necessarily overall).
Each league can only select 32 players for the All Star Game itself (usually 20 or 21 position players and 11 or 12 pitchers), so quite a few of the players listed here will be left on the outside looking in.
#C
The NL dominates here, with 3 catchers with an OPS over 1.000. That means some worthy candidates–most notably NYG’s Buster Posey –are likely to miss out.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Josh Gibson
HOM / NL
1.229
5.1 WAR; 67 RBI
3.1 FRM
Gary Carter
OTT /NL
1.073
28 HR
47.1 RTO%
Mike Piazza
BRK / NL
1.042
29 HR; 65 RBI
4.87 CERA
Ed Bailey
DET / AL
.972
57 G/216 PA; 43.6 RTO%
Jim Pagliaroni
BBB / NL
.925
61 G/231 PA
Mickey Cochrane
SFS / AL
.917
10 SB; 4.39 CERA
Ted Simmons
KCM / NL
.900
63 G/256 PA; 4.15 CERA
Buster Posey
NYG / NL
.870
3.8 FRM
Joe Mauer
POR / AL
.856
14 SB
Curt Blefary
BAL /AL
.826
Carlton Fisk
CAG / AL
.800
67 G/254 PA; 11 SB
FRM = Framing Runs | RTO% = Runners Thrown Out | CERA = Catcher ERA
The other stalwart defensive catchers–Miami‘s Iván Rodríguez and Indianapolis’ Johnny Bench–just haven’t hit enough, although a late surge by Bench has moved him up these lists.
I don’t think there is any question in the NL, where it’s Gibson, Carter, and Piazza. Cochrane and Mauer should be in for the AL, with a question of whether you go with Bailey’s bat in more limited appearances or Blefary. Should the NL decide to carry 4 backstops, the choice between Pagliaroni and Simmons (and, perhaps, Posey) is close.
Gibson and Cochrane should be the starters.
#1B
The AL has a slight edge here, but there’s a lot of talent throughout.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Lou Gehrig
NYY / AL
1.057
28 HR; 21 2B; 65 RBI
.995 Fldg
Will Clark
NYG / NL
1.006
Frank Thomas
CAG / AL
1.004
Hank Greenberg
DET / AL
.991
26 HR
.998 Fldg; 3.1 ZR
Mike Epstein
HOM / NL
.965
Anthony Rizzo
HOD / NL
.964
Lance Berkman
CLE / AL
.957
Jim Thome
MCG / AL
.927
28 HR; 64 RBI
Jeff Bagwell
HOU / NL
.923
66 RBI
.995 Fldg
Boog Powell
KCM / NL
.920
.995 Fldg; 9.23 RF; 2.9 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Gehrig and Clark are almost certainly the starters, and the AL will likely take Thomas and Greenberg as well. In the NL, it gets a little trickier, as Powell (along with Greenberg) is one of the better 1B defensively. Epstein’s offense will carry him, but after that my guess is Rizzo gets the selection (but cannot participate via injury), and is replaced by Powell, with Bagwell having a legitimate complaint.
#2B
The NL is ridiculously stacked in terms of offensive-minded 2B.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Joe Morgan
IND / NL
1.088
47 G/199 PA
Roberto Alomar
OTT/ NL
1.008
21 2B; 18 HR; 64 RBI; 31 SB; 3.5 WAR
Ryne Sandberg
HOD / NL
.995
28 HR; 60 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.997 Fldg; 5.00 RF
Jackie Robinson
BRK / NL
.938
Rogers Hornsby
POR / AL
.919
53 G/234 PA
Charlie Gehringer
DET / AL
.876
57 G/225 PA; .989 Fldg; 5.09 RF
Eddie Collins
CAG / AL
.850
36 SB
Bobby Grich
LAA / AL
.845
15 HR
Craig Biggio
HOU / NL
.841
Chase Utley
PHI / NL
.781
4.92 RF; 9.3 ZR
Cookie Rojas
MCG / AL
.766
27 2B
.987 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Joe Morgan is included just for interest–he missed too much time to injury to warrant serious consideration. Detroit’s Charlie Gehringer, on the other hand, probably makes the cut, despite starting the season in the minors.
In the NL, it’s pretty clear: Alomar, Sandberg, and Robinson, with the starter being decided between Sandberg and Alomar over the next week. The AL is trickier, but I think it ends up going according to form: Eddie Collins to start, with Gehringer and Hornsby behind him.
#SS
It’s pretty impressive there are this many shortstops that can hit, and Ernie Banks‘ production is incredible.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ernie Banks
HOD/ NL
.978
30 HR; 71 RBI
Cal Ripken, Jr.
BAL / AL
.967
39 G/140 PA; .993 Fldg; 4.90 RF
Carlos Correa
HOU/ NL
.929
18 2B; 2.8 WAR
Arky Vaughan
CLE / AL
.887
19 2B; 2.4 WAR
6.3 ZR
Álex Rodríguez
OTT / NL
.885
23 HR
Robin Yount
MCG / AL
.845
15 HR
5.8 ZR
Jim Fregosi
POR / AL
.793
Dick Lundy
SFS / AL
.783
7 3B; 2.1 WAR; 33 SB
Derek Jeter
NYY / AL
.762
Dobie Moore
MEM / AL
.750
22 SB
.983 Fldg
Ozzie Smith
KCM / NL
.672
19 2B; 25 SB
.994 Fldg; 6.3 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Ripken, Jr. is really not a serious contender, but he has been impressive in the 40 G’s he’s played. That gives us Banks, Correa, and Rodríguez in the NL and Vaughan, Yount, and either Fregosi or Lundy in the AL.
Smith is included because of his superlative defense, but doesn’t probably make the cut.
This is an interesting position: Vaughan and Rodríguez changed teams in the off season, and Correa’s performance has been a bit of a shock.
#3B
The top 5 are locks, beyond that, it gets much trickier, especially in the NL.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Albert Pujols
KCM / NL
1.046
32 2B; 60 RBI; 2.8 WAR
Ron Cey
BRK / NL
.967
2.4 WAR
.976 Fldg; 3.3 ZR
Gary Sheffield
MCG/ AL
.929
22 HR; 55 RBI; 15 SB
Evan Longoria
CLE / AL
.926
2.2 ZR
Mike Schmidt
NYY / AL
.926
23 HR; 55 RBI
2.59 RF
Scott Rolen
PHI / NL
.922
2.1 WAR
.974 Fldg; 2.7 ZR
Ron Santo
HOD /NL
.906
52 G/192 PA
Eddie Mathews
BBB / NL
.904
24 HR
.978 Fldg; 2.66 RF
Wade Boggs
MEM / AL
.896
26 2B
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
After Pujols and Cey, it’s hard in the NL. Matthews and Rolen edge ahead of Santo due to defense and Santo’s relative low usage, but picking between the two of them is very challenging, to the point the NL may go with 4 players at the hot corner.
#OF
All of the OF spots are a bit combined in the end, but we’re keeping them separate for the sake of comparison.
#LF
When Detroit’s Ty Cobb plays the OF, he plays here as well, making the AL selections pretty simple.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Babe Ruth
NYY / AL
1.201
40 HR; 90 RBI; 5.0 WAR
.988 Fldg; 5.1 ZR
Ted Williams
MEM / AL
1.063
23 2B; 65 RBI
Frank Robinson
BAL / AL
1.035
24 HR; 64 RBI; 2.3 WAR
1.000 Fldg
Adam Dunn
IND / NL
.906
24 HR
.989 Fldg; 3.41 RF
Roy White
BRK / NL
.866
Oscar Gamble
DET / AL
.852
Rickey Henderson
SFS / AL
.840
2.8 WAR; 60 SB
7.2 ZR
Tim Raines
OTT / NL
.773
7 3B; 53 SB
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
So, Ruth, Williams, and Robinson are in, and perhaps Henderson’s 60+ SB warrant a spot. In the NL, it’s more challenging. Dunn seems to be a lock, and White is a bit of a sentimental choice. It may be just those 2 from this group.
#CF
Tris Speaker, as despicable of a human being as he is, is the best in the AL right now, especially considering the defensive contribution. Over in the NL, Willie Mays probably edges Oscar Charleston as the starter.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Rick Monday
OTT /NL
1.172
41 G/136 PA
Tris Speaker
CLE / AL
1.088
31 2B; 4.0 WAR
2.68 RF; 5.1 ZR; 6 Kills
Turkey Stearnes
SFS / AL
1.065
7 3B; 24 HR
Eric Davis
NYY / AL
1.058
26 SB
41 G/188 PA; 1.000 Fldg
Julio Rodríguez
MCG / AL
1.052
39 G/177 PA
Oscar Charleston
IND / NL
1.027
9 3B; 60 RBI; 24 SB
Willie Mays
NYG / NL
.977
31 HR; 62 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.990 Fldg; 2.70 RF; 7.7 ZR
Mike Trout
LAA / AL
.965
24 2B; 2.8 WAR; 21 SB
1.000 Fldg
Carlos Beltrán
OTT / NL
.916
63 RBI; 21 SB
Alejandro Oms
MCG / AL
.883
5 3B
6.3 ZR
Curtis Granderson
BBB / NL
.876
26 HR
3.01 RF
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Monday, Davis, and Rodríguez aren’t really in contention, but their performances in limited action have been pretty spectacular.
Speaker, Stearnes, and Trout are pretty much locks in the AL, with Oms being a hard luck case. Beltrán deserves the spot behind Mays and Charleston.
#RF
A deep, deep group, probably 4 deep in each league.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
José Canseco
MCG / AL
1.109
36 HR
Larry Walker
OTT / NL
1.090
36 HR; 85 RBI; 22.4 WAR
3.89 RF
Reggie Jackson
SFS / AL
1.027
63 RBI; 2.8 WAR; 24 SB
Tony Gwynn
HOU / NL
1.026
6 3B; 24 2B; 2.8 WAR
Aaron Judge
PHI / NL
.994
.992 Fldg
Mickey Mantle
NYY / AL
.993
30 HR; 76 RBI
Joe Jackson
CAG /AL
.986
39 2B; 27 SB
Stan Musial
KCM / NL
.964
37 2B
5.5 ZR
Johnny Callison
NYG / NL
.945
.993 Fldg
Mookie Betts
MEM / AL
.865
24 2B
1.000 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Canseco, Mantle, and the 2 Jacksons seem locks in the AL, with Walker, Gwynn, and Judge in the NL. It’s possible Musial misses the cut, as ridiculous as that sounds.
#DH
The pressure here is immense, given the competition for the other OF spots.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ty Cobb
DET / AL
1.350
37 2B; 8 3B; 26 HR; 73 RBI; 5.8 WAR; 31 SB
Kal Daniels
LAA / AL
1.023
21 2B; 2.3 WAR; 30 SB
Manny Ramírez
MEM / AL
.986
56 G/224 PA
Ryan Braun
MCG/ AL
.982
31 HR
Willie Stargell
HOM / NL
.980
27 HR
Gavvy Cravath
BAL / AL
.926
22 2B; 69 RBI
Benny Kauff
NYG / NL
.909
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Cobb is, of course, a lock, and it would be hard to keep Daniels off the roster. Beyond that, though, it gets difficult to justify a pure DH, although Braun, Stargell, and Cravath all have decent arguments.
#P
Pitching is, of course, a constant crapshoot, and a lot could change in the outings this week.
All pitchers are sorted by ERA.
#SP
This list has everyone with an ERA under 4.00 or 10 or more wins.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Toad Ramsey
HOU / NL
11-4, 2.77
152 K; 0.89 WHIP; 5.2 WAR; 2.80 FIP
71% QS; 5 CG; 2 SHO; 2.34 SIERA; 1.7 WPA
Doc Gooden
LAA / AL
7-5, 3.17
Hardie Henderson
PHI/ NL
9-6, 3.18
Smokey Joe Williams
BRK / NL
7-7, 3.41
3.4 WAR
Ed Walsh
CAG / AL
6-3, 3.41
1.06 WHIP
Eddie Plank
SFS / AL
11-3, 3.54
Roger Clemens
HOU / NL
9-4, 3.71
65% QS
Lefty Grove
SFS / AL
10-4, 3.71
132 K
4 CG; 3 SHO; 2.87 SIERA
Johnny Cueto
IND / NL
8-4, 3.75
67% QS
Rube Foster
IND / NL
6-4, 3.80
Ron Guidry
NYY / AL
8-4, 3.86
143 K
2.58 SIERA
Orel Hershiser
BRK / NL
10-4, 3.87
Brett Anderson
LAA / AL
7-2, 3.91
1.06 WHIP
Andy Pettitte
NYY / AL
9-5, 4.05
Bump Hadley
SFS / AL
11-4, 4.21
3.50 FIP
Luis Padrón
IND / NL
11-2, 4.21
3.3 WA; 3.57 FIP
Frank Castillo
KCM / NL
10-1, 4.22
3 CG; 2 SHO
José Méndez
MCG / AL
6-4, 4.45
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Right now, I would guess the starting matchup is Toad Ramsey for the NL and Eddie Plank for the AL.
Beyond that, in the AL, I see Gooden, Walsh, and Grove as easy picks. Guidry is likely in as well, leaving Anderson and Hadley on the bubble.
The NL is much harder to figure out. Henderson, Hershiser, Padrón, and Castillo feel like they deserve selections, with Williams having a very strong case as well. That would leave some excellent performances–Clemens and Cueto especially–on the outside looking in.
#Swingmen / Long Relivers
These are players who are either swing starters or have seen more innings than the finishers below. As is often the case, there are a few folks here who, for whatever the reason, took a while to be inserted into the rotation.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
A. Rube Foster
KCM/ NL
5-1, 2.30
0.98 WHIP
7 GS; 90 IP; 86% QS; 2 SHO; 1.0 WPA
Jim Whitney
BBB / NL
4-2, 3.26
1 Sv; 2 H; 1.03 WHIP
11 GS; 94 IP; 73% QS; 1.9 WPA
Tom Brewer
SFS / AL
0-1, 2.33
1 Sv; 2 H
2 GS; 27 IP
Fernando Valenzuela
BRK / NL
5-0, 2.37
1 Sv; 4 H; 0.96 WHIP
1 GS; 60 IP; 1.0 WPA
Rheal Cormier
NYY / AL
0-2, 6.03
11 H
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Foster and Valenzuela seem clear selections, with Brewer and Cormier missing the cut and Whitney being on the bubble.
#Closers & Setups
20 IP Minimum, with a possible exception for Brian Wilson of the New York Gothams.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Brian Wilson
NYG/ NL
1-0, 1.08
11 Sv
17 IP
Craig Kimbrel
KCM / NL
2-1, 1.14
2 Sv; 11 H; 0.89 WHIP
15 SD; 5.6 IRS%; 2.90 SIERA; 2.0 WPA
Harley Young
BBB / NL
1-0, 1.23
3 Sv; 5 H
Ron Robinson
SFS / AL
1-0, 1.64
3 Sv; 3 H
Ken Howell
SFS / AL
4-1, 1.72
1 Sv; 4 H
Robb Nen
NYG / NL
3-2, 1.95
9 Sv; 6 H
Eddie Guardado
KCM / NL
2-1, 2.08
1 Sv; 5 H
2.92 SIERA
Tug McGraw
HOU / NL
3-3, 2.16
7 Sv
Ross Reynolds
LAA / AL
2-0, 2.19
1 Sv; 1 H
Goose Gossage
NYY / AL
2-3, 2.32
9 Sv; 8 H
.90 Sv%
Lee Smith
HOD / NL
4-1, 2.73
5 Sv; 6 H; 0.73 WHIP
Eric Gagne
BRK / NL
1-1, 2.92
19 Sv
17 SD
Justin Hampson
BAL / AL
0-0, 3.00
7 H; 0.95 WHIP
Terry Adams
CLE / AL
1-2, 3.18
15 Sv; 2 H
.94 Sv%
Josh Lindblom
HOM / NL
4-2, 3.45
20 Sv
.95 Sv%; 16 SD; 1.3 WPA
Rod Beck
SFS / AL
3-2, 3.47
21 Sv; 0.73 WHIP
15 SD
Rob Murphy
IND / NL
1-3, 3.75
1 Sv; 11 H
Michael Jackson
HOM / NL
1-4, 4.13
1 Sv; 10 H
BJ Ryan
OTT / NL
1-2, 4.15
1 Sv; 10 H
Brad Kilby
PHI / NL
1-2, 4.39
2 Sv; 10 H
2.73 SIERA
Rob Dibble
IND / NL
2-2, 5.25
16 Sv
Jeff Pfeffer
KCM / NL
1-3, 5.61
16 Sv
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
A difficult set of choices for sure. Of the true closers, Gagne, Lindblom, and Beck seem locks, with Kimbrel, Young, Howell, Nen, McGraw, Gossage, and Smith deserving nods as well.
That would give the NL 7 selections, likely keeping Wilson from making the team. It would also give the AL only 3, opening the door for Adams and even Reynolds or Hampson.
Today, we’ll check in on last year’s all stars from the National League, and next week review the candidates for this year’s midseason classic.
#Awards
Baltimore is starting to make some noise, led by Frank Robinson, who was the AL Player of the Week after hitting .409 with 3 homeruns. Boog Powell of the Kansas City Monarchs hit .522 with 4 homers, earning honors over in the NL.
#Team Performance
Other than a bit of separation in the Effa Manley Division, not a lot has changed.
The New York Black Yankees still lead the Bill James Division, but Cleveland has closed to within 4. San Francisco, tied with the Black Yankees for the best record in the league, is beginning to run away with the Cum Posey Division, leading Chicago (the only 2nd place team under .500) by 9.5 games.
Brooklyn tops the Effa Manley Division, but it’s still tight, with Homestead 2 and the New York Gothams 3.5 games back. A 2-8 record in their last 10 games has dropped Ottawa 7.5 games behind.
Finally, the Indianapolis ABC’s and the Kansas City Monarchs are in a dead heat in the Marvin Miller Division.
The Birmingham Black Barons retain the dubious honor of having the worst record in the league at 30-46.
#Player Performance
Batters
Detroit‘s Ty Cobb had fallen under .400, but a torrid streak has him back on top of the league in batting average at .409, edging in front of Houston‘s Tony Gwynn who sits at .404.
Cobb’s performance really deserves some attention: it’s not just the .409 average, it’s the league leading .861 SLG, driven by 36 doubles and 23 homers. He’s clearly the best hitter in the league so far, although Detroit’s overall performance may reduce his standing in the MVP race.
Roberto Alomar (OTT). 324/405/617. 67 R. José Canseco (MCG). 256/374/740. 33 HR. Oscar Charleston (IND). 330/381/642. 9 3B. Ty Cobb (DET). 409/460/861. 106 H, 36 2B, 5.1 WAR. Josh Gibson (HOM). 391/471/744. 4.7 WAR. Tony Gwynn (HOU). 404/436/632. 110 H. Pete Hill (HOU). 280/366/477. 9 3B. Joe Jackson (CAG). 372/416/613. 36 2B. Stan Musial (KCM). 329/392/573. 37 2B. Babe Ruth (NYY). 293/417/759. 36 HR, 85 RBI, 73 R. Larry Walker (OTT). 296/369/727. 33 HR, 77 RBI.
Rickey Henderson (San Francisco) and Tim Raines (Ottawa) continue to be 1-2 in the league in steals, 55 to 46.
Two batters (Indianapolis’ Adam Dunn and the Black Yankees’ Mickey Mantle) have struck out over 100 times, but with 16 others already over 80, they won’t be alone in the century club for long.
Pitchers
Starters
Indianapolis’ Luis Padrón continues to lead the league in wins with 11. The three other starters with double-digit wins are also included below.
Two interesting newer names here: Rube Foster (Andrew Rube, not Rube) has just been impossible to hit, and now that he is safely over the IP threshold to qualify, it will be interesting to see how long he stays on the leaderboards. Brooklyn‘s Smokey Joe Williams has pitched excellently, despite a sub .500 record to show for it.
A. Rube Foster (KCM). 5-0, 2.22. 0.89 WHIP. Lefty Grove (SFS). 8-4, 3.54. 114 IP. Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-4, 3.77. 136 K, 3.1 WAR. Bump Hadley (SFS). 10-4, 4.34. 3.49 FIP. Luis Padrón (IND). 11-2, 4.22. Eddie Plank (SFS). 10-3, 3.57. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 10-4, 2.87. 116 IP, 145 K, 0.90 WHIP, 2.72 FIP, 5.0 WAR. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 6-7, 3.29. 3.1 WAR.
Relievers
We’ve listed the top 3 relievers in saves. We’re getting some separation here, but it’s still hard to really point to anyone–other than Kansas City’s Craig Kimbrel–as being lights-out dominant.
17 IP minimum.
Rod Beck (SFS). 3-2, 3.80. 19 Sv. Eric Gagne (BRK). 1-1, 3.18. 17 Sv. Ken Howell (SFS). 4-1, 1.32. 1 Sv, 4 H. Bob Howry (PHI). 3-1, 3.60. 10 Sv, 0.775 WHIP. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-3, 3.62. 1 Sv, 10 H. Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 1-1, 1.31. 2 Sv, 10 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 4-2, 3.45. 20 Sv. Rob Murphy (IND). 1-1, 3.09. 1 Sv, 11 H. Lee Smith (HOD). 4-1, 2.97. 3 Sv, 6 H, 0.73 WHIP.
#Injury Report
The biggest injury to hit in a while is Kansas City’s Stan Musial, who will miss about a week.
Homestead’s Owen Wilson, Memphis‘ Skel Roach, and Miami‘s Al Oliver are all due to start rehab assignments this week.
#Last Year’s NL All-Stars
As we ramp up to this year’s all-star game, seemed a good time to check in on last year’s designees. This week, we’ll take a look at (what was last year) the AL.
#OBV
Rod Beck (SFS). Second in the league in saves, despite some rough other numbers. Should be enough.
José Canseco (MCG). A .256 average ain’t great … but 33 homers and a nearly 1.100 OPS is.
Lou Gehrig (NYY). A borderline choice last year, Gerhig has upped the power a notch this year.
Josh Gibson (HOM). Gibson has blossomed this year with an OPS over 1.200. He’s probably the best backstop in the WBL at 21 years old.
Lefty Grove (SFS). Doing even better than last season.
Ken Howell (SFS). Continues to be dominant in a support role.
Joe Mauer (POR). Mauer has a 302/383/502 slash line. Nuff said.
Scott Rolen (PHI). Rolen continues to deliver for the Stars.
Babe Ruth (NYY). Still leading the league in key categories, most notably HR and RBI.
#Mebbe
Terry Adams (CLE). A decent shot, sitting 5th in the league in saves with solid peripheral numbers.
Johnny Bench (IND). Bench was probably the best C in the league last season; this year he’s picked it up as of late, but still has fallen far short of last year’s levels.
Ron Blomberg (CLE). 1B is so hard … Blomberg has 27 homers and an OPS just shy of 1.000, yet may not make the midsummer classic.
Mike Epstein (HOM). See Blomberg above. Epstein has an OBP near .400 and a SLG near .600, and may be on the fringes as well.
Jim Fregosi (POR). Is an .800 OPS enough at SS? Maybe …
Rickey Henderson (SFS). A borderline choice last year as well … but a .400 OBP and over 50 SBs at the season midpoint is compelling.
Reggie Jackson (SFS). Jackson is no longer threatening the triple crown, but he’s still sporting an OPS of about .980. So mebbe.
Mickey Mantle (NYY). Mantle has an OPS just over 1.000, but the CF contenders are pretty thick. So we’ll see if it gets him in.
#Meh
Kent Hrbek (POR). A fringe MVP candidate last year, Hrbek has fallen to the ranks of the thoroughly average this year.
Derek Jeter (NYY). Jeter has more power this year, but is hitting under .250, moving him behind other contenders.
Thurman Munson (NYY). Munson may belong in the level below, having fallen dramatically from last year’s heights.
Bobby Murcer (POR). Murcer hasn’t been bad, with a 262/327/496 slash line. But it’s not all star material.
Ron Reed (CLE). Reed is effective this year, but not all-star material.
Cy Young (CLE). Still a workhorse, but not nearly as effective as last season.
#What Happened?
Buddy Bell (POR). Bell has been on fire as of late … which has raised his OPS to a not-so-robust .669.
Don Drysedale (BRK). From one of the better aces in the league to an ERA well over 6.00.
Tom Herr (NYY). Herr rode an all-star first half of last season to a trade to a contender, but has struggled since then, including a .655 OPS this year.
Chuck Knoblauch (CLE). Another hard collapse, with Knoblauch falling to a little below Tom Herr levels.
Charlie Root (DET). Made it as a reliver last year, now a full time starter and being no more than adequate.
#Other
Eric Davis (NYY). Solid, but missed too much time through injury.
Tim Hudson (SFS). Injured, and not doing well when not.
Red Ruffing (NYY). Doing well since his return from injury, but has only gotten a handful of starts.
Johan Santana (POR). No longer in the WBL after a horrifically ineffective return from long-term injury.