73 - 89, .451 pct.
5th in Bill James Division, 17 GB
Overall
With low expectations come … well … another poor season in Memphis.
There are some decent pieces to build around here, but there is some ways to go. There is also a bit of a surplus of talent, especially in the OF, so some trade possibilities to hang in the air. Like so many WBL teams, the Red Sox struggle on the mound–I mean, they struggle everywhere, but it’s much easier to see the pieces coming together offensively than, especially, in their rotation.
Everything in Memphis revolves around Ted Williams, and how to build the franchise around the infinitely talented 22 year old.
What Went Right
Ted Williams had what felt like might qualify as an off-year by the time his career is over and done with. That still meant slashing 303/423/616, revealing a rare mixture of power and strike zone control.
Manny Ramírez improved on a rough initial year, leading the team with 46 homeruns and 110 RBIs with an OPS of 1.024. At 26, Ramírez should be entering his true prime, and while his lack of defensive skill pushes him towards a full time DH role, if he can maintain that level of performance, he’s a rare talent. The only caution is that he only saw 450ish PAs this season.
David Ortiz saw even less time, but hit even better: a 1.047 OPS and 34 homeruns in 100 games, displacing Bill White at 1B.
And while we’re on the topic of great performances in limited appearances, mention must be made of Lefty O’Doul (1.059 OPS) and Hack Wilson (1.036), each of whom have a shot at making the team out of Spring Training.
Billy Bryan was one of the best offensive backup catchers in the league, slashing 257/327/621 in support of Gabby Hartnett, who was pretty solid himself, posting an .879 OPS with good power.
And then we get pretty thin offensively: Reggie Smith and Mookie Betts were good enough, with mid .800s OPS numbers, but one or both of them need to improve, especially with the performance of the late season call ups. Betts, especially, may have value on the trade market.
On the mound, both Stubby Overmire and Len Barker racked up enough innings to generate decent WAR numbers, but were honestly not that great. That may be a little cruel on Overmire, who is clearly the best the Red Sox have to offer.
Andrew Miller was solid in a WBL leading 74 games, so there is value just in being rubber armed with a live arm, even if his walk rate is too high for comfort.
Tommy de la Cruz and Jameson Taillon were relatively effective in limited work. Taillon blew out his elbow, and won’t be back for about a year, effectively missing all of next season.
And then there is Skel Roach. 44 strikeouts in 40 innings and only 19 hits allowed … but 40 walks. So that can’t survive very long.
ALL STARSTed Williams
MAJOR AWARDSAndrew Miller, AL Team of the Year
RECOGNITIONSAndrew Miller, AL All Rookie Team; AL 25 & Under Team; AL 23 & Under Team
Dobie Moore, AL All Rookie 2nd Team; AL 21 & Under Team
David Ortiz, AL All Rookie 2nd Team
Skel Roach, AL All Rookie 2nd Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDSTed Williams, MVP
Andrew Miller, Pitcher of the Year
David Ortiz, Heart & Soul
Skel Roach, Fan Favorite
Pete Richert, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Lefty O'Doul, Minor League Player of the Year
What Went Wrong
Dobie Moore struggled a bit in his rookie year, but at 20 he has a lot of room to improve. There’s really not a lot else that went wrong, just a range of players who were fine: Wade Boggs, Bill White, and DJ LeMahieu leap to mind.
Whereas on the mound … Jon Lester and David Bush were pretty bad as starters, especially Lester. And major free agent signing Shane Bieber made only 8 poor starts before a long-term injury. Bieber should be back early in the season.
The Red Sox keep giving Sadie McMahon, Eddie Cicotte, Nixey Callahan, and Derek Lowe opportunities. And they keep fumbling, combining for a 4-8 record and ERA’s well over 6.00.
Heath Bell stumbled badly over the season, ending with a 3-5 record and an ERA in the mid 6’s.
Transactions
March
OF Sammy Sosa for C Gabby Hartnett, P Rollie Fingers & 4th Round Pick.
A massive, massive win. Sosa struggled mightily in Memphis, went back to the House of David … and struggled mightily. On the other hand, Hartnett looks like the Red Sox catcher for the foreseeable future.
OF David Justice, IF Ozzie Albies, 2nd Round Pick to BBB for IF Bill Buckner & OF Joe Rudi.
Sure. I mean, we can’t evaluate this one for a few years.
July
The season was over for Memphis at this point, but there weren’t any real buyers, so there wasn’t much activity.
IF Vern Stephens to BRG for 4th Round Pick.
This seemed to make sense: Stephens was having a miserable season, and the Red Sox had already decided that Dobie Moore was their future SS.
August
P Jonathan Papelbon & 4th Round Pick to MCG for P Josh Beckett, OF Roy Thomas & 3rd Round Pick.
Makes sense. Papelbon was excellent, and netted a strong return from the Cuban Giants.
Positional Overview
C
Gabby Hartnett came over and seems to have seized the position, which is quite good news for Memphis. Look for Billy Bryan to back him up again, with Rick Wilkins pressing for time from below.
There are some options: Brian McCann and Jason Varitek have some talent, and Dobie Moore can even play here in a pinch.
1B
David Ortiz‘ explosion really leaves Bill White flapping in the wind, which is a shame: White has been a quality contributor, and really deserves better. Best bet is the Red Sox shop White, and Ortiz holds this down until either Bill Buckner or Joe Cunningham are ready.
There are a ton of other options as well, most notably George Scott, Travis Shaw, and even young phenom Carl Yastrzemski.
2B
It seems that DJ LeMahieu may have taken this role for his own–LeMahieu clearly outperformed Dustin Pedroia, and really his only competition is Dobie Moore, who is probably headed for shortstop.
SS
The problem with Dobie Moore is his youth and his glove. Everything else looks incredible.
If he falters, we’re likely to see Woody English or Francisco Lindor given a chance.
So, there is optimism, but you could also see this as a very large question mark.
3B
Wade Boggs was … mediocre this year, but he will still be the 3B at the end of the day.
It’s not clear what happens next here, although young Candy Jim Taylor certainly shows promise.
LF/RF
LF is Ted Williams, period.
RF is a little less settled, but is likely Mookie Betts, with occasional support from Manny Ramírez. The complications here are the youth, with Lefty O’Doul, Dwight Evans, Joe Kelley, and most importantly Carl Yastrzemski, all pushing for playing time.
CF
Reggie Smith is far better than he gets credit for. That may not be enough as Hack Wilson is breathing down his neck pushing for playing time.
DH
Manny Ramírez most of the time. But, again, there is the Lefty O’Doul issue.
SP
Stubby Overmire leads, and then … well … then it is mostly question marks, although Len Barker and Dean Chance are favored.
The scouts keep pushing Eddie Cicotte, Sadie McMahon, and Nixey Callahan, but the fans don’t appreciate their results to date. If the Red Sox decide to give youth a chance, Josh Beckett, Nathan Eovaldi, or Jim Kaat could get a look.
RP
More uncertainty.
Heath Bell, Armando Benitez, and the incomprehensible Skel Roach may get first opportunities, along with the impressive Tommy de la Cruz. Rollie Fingers may get a look in the Spring as well.
We previewed the Gold Gloves in August, but now it’s time to do the real thing, one per position per league. We’ll go through them first, then list the award recipients at the end.
I do believe in defense mattering over time, as such, we’re using an 800 IP minimum for the GG awards. For each position, we’re listing the top 3 in each league, AL followed by NL.
We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.
Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.
Outfielders also have Assists (A), more romantically referred to as Outfield Kills are runners eliminated on the bases and Arm Runs (AR), which measures the net runs gained on an outfielder’s throws, including runner advancements.
Finally, catchers, who are really their own thing, also have RTO% (the percentage of runners thrown out trying to steal, abbreviated as RT), PB (passed balls), Framing Runs (the number of runs gained by the catcher’s positioning), and cERx, which reflects the ERA while the catcher was behind the plate compared to the overall staff ERA. A cERx below 1 means the catcher was better than the rest of the staff, above 1, worse.
#C
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
RT
PB
cERx
FR
NL
IND
Johnny Bench
1144
.995
9.3
1.3
1.19
36
11
1.03
7
HOD
Elrod Hendricks
923
.994
8.3
3.8
1.14
40
9
1.01
5
NYG
Buster Posey
1095
.996
8.9
0.4
1.00
35
8
0.96
10
AL
POR
Joe Mauer
1103
.996
9.5
3.5
1.04
39
6
1.01
5
NYY
Thurman Munson
1122
.995
9.8
2.3
1.00
35
5
0.96
4
MCG
Iván Rodríguez
1104
.998
9.8
5.7
1.05
46
17
0.98
2
So, what is a catcher’s primary duty? Helping their staff, controlling the running game, and then, a somewhat distant third, making their own defensive plays.
The choice in the AL is pretty obvious, in the NL, I think it comes down to how much do you weigh Posey’s ability to frame pitches, and his ~150 more innings played than Hendricks.
#1B
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
NL
KCM
Boog Powell
1105
.996
9.1
3.4
1.02
HOD
Anthony Rizzo
828
.995
8.7
0.8
1.02
IND
Joey Votto
1072
1.000
8.4
5.1
1.04
AL
DET
Hank Greenberg
1159
.996
8.3
2.5
1.02
POR
Kent Hrbek
1007
.995
8.6
1.3
1.03
MEM
Bill White
886
.993
9.1
0.5
1.01
Again, one choice is pretty clear–the NL this time.
In the AL, it’s much closer, but Greenberg makes some plays that Hrbek just doesn’t.
#2B
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
NL
KCM
Robinson Canó
1134
.990
4.6
11.0
1.06
BBB
Cupid Childs
1022
.983
4.5
7.3
1.09
PHI
Chase Utley
1173
.994
4.9
13.7
1.07
AL
DET
Charlie Gehringer
971
.989
4.9
-10.7
0.94
BAL
Miller Huggins
923
.987
4.3
10.8
1.10
MCG
Cookie Rojas
877
.993
4.4
-3.3
0.97
These are two relatively easy choices. And, there is a question of what’s going on in the AL, where almost everyone has a negative ZR.
#SS
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
NL
NYG
Brandon Crawford
1046
.966
4.2
11.4
1.07
IND
Barry Larkin
911
.975
4.7
9.0
1.07
KCM
Ozzie Smith
1188
.992
4.7
12.2
1.06
AL
SFS
Dick Lundy
934
.987
4.5
10.8
1.06
CAG
Freddy Parent
952
.978
5.0
13.6
1.06
CLE
Arky Vaughan
1143
.982
4.2
13.4
1.09
In the NL, it’s another clear choice: while Smith and Crawford both make the sensational plays, Smith makes all the plays.
The AL is much, much closer and there’s really not much to choose from between Parent and Vaughan. As such, we’ll go with the player who stayed on the field more.
#3B
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
NL
OTT
Adrián Beltré
1055
.974
2.6
-0.8
1.00
BRK
Ron Cey
1138
.975
2.5
6.0
1.03
PHI
Scott Rolen
1155
.970
2.3
5.0
1.06
AL
POR
Buddy Bell
1169
.968
2.5
8.0
1.05
CLE
Evan Longoria
1148
.963
2.2
4.8
1.04
NYY
Mike Schmidt
1140
.958
2.4
5.3
1.03
The hot corner is a challenge: everyone makes 2, 2 1/2 plays a game, so RF is less useful, although Beltré’s 2.6 does stand out, as does Longoria’s more limited mobility. But it means fPct–as a proxy for errors–and dEff rise in importance. In the AL, while it’s not by a mile, I think Bell is the clear choice while in the AL, it ends up being between Cey and Rolen, with the final edge going to The Penguin.
#LF
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
A
AR
NL
IND
Bob Bescher
839
.989
1.9
-4.8
0.96
2
-2.8
PHI
Sherry Magee
839
.994
1.7
4.8
1.04
1
-2.3
BRK
Roy White
1152
.992
1.9
10.3
1.07
6
-1.0
AL
CLE
Johnny Bates
1018
.978
2.0
8.8
1.06
4
-1.3
SFS
Rickey Henderson
1202
.982
1.6
12.2
1.18
3
-3.6
BAL
Frank Robinson
996
.990
1.8
0.2
1.00
5
-2.2
The AR numbers reflect just how hard it is to prevent runners from advancing on flyballs, and makes Jim Wynn‘s 3.7 mark there all the more remarkable. Unfortunately, the rest of Wynn’s numbers leave him out of the finalists entirely.
The NL is an easy choice, and one that gives us a repeat winner in Roy White. Over in the Al, it’s harder, but Bates makes more plays and has a far better arm than Henderson, despite how much ground the Sea Lions’ speedster covers.
#CF
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
A
AR
NL
OTT
Carlos Beltrán
1045
.982
2.9
9.5
1.06
10
-1.0
PHI
Willie Davis
1035
.988
2.9
16.3
1.10
4
-2.8
NYG
Willie Mays
1214
.989
2.8
14.5
1.05
4
-4.7
AL
BAL
Paul Blair
935
.986
2.7
11.8
1.09
3
-2.6
CLE
Tris Speaker
1047
.982
2.8
10.0
1.06
9
-2.4
SFS
Turkey Stearnes
1027
.979
2.8
7.4
1.05
5
-4.7
Assists can be misleading: Detroit’s Chili Davis gunned down 14 runners and Kansas City’s Willie McGee 11, but they, overall, just weren’t effective enough out there to warrant their inclusion. Remember, the weaker the arm, the more often it gets run on, the more chances for assists you may get.
Look, Willie Mays is a great defensive CF. But Willie Davis, simply, had a better year out there. In the AL, you can only unseat Paul Blair if you give massive weight to Speaker’s additional 3 assists. But given how close they are in AR, it’s hard to rationalize that. So Blair it is once again, our 2nd repeat winner.
#RF
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
fPct
RF
ZR
dEff
A
AR
NL
BBB
Hank Aaron
945
.979
1.7
4.4
1.06
6
0.6
HOM
Roberto Clemente
1134
.979
2.2
7.1
1.06
11
-2.6
KCM
Stan Musial
972
.981
2.0
8.4
1.07
2
-0.4
AL
MEM
Mookie Betts
880
1.000
1.9
7.6
1.07
2
-3.8
DET
Al Kaline
971
.991
2.1
3.8
1.03
6
-1.8
LAA
Ichiro Suzuki
1195
1.000
2.0
5.7
1.04
7
-3.0
The NL is insanely close. Musial makes more spectacular plays than Clemente, Clemente makes marginally more plays overall and has that cannon for an arm, although Musial limits baserunners more effectively. It’s a coin flip, but today we’ll go with Clemente’s additional 150 innings as the difference maker.
In the AL, it’s clearly one of the players who didn’t make a single miscue, and although Betts has the edge in a few metrics, Suzuki has over 300 more innings–1200 innings without an error, but with great range, is incredible.
#P
We’re using 140 innings as the cutoff for the pitchers. Additionally, we have access to number of Framing Runs the pitcher benefitted from, as well as the SB numbers against them. Errors tend to be so low from pitchers, that fPct is no longer a really useful metric.
Lg
Tm
Name
IP
RF
ZR
dEff
RT
FR
NL
HOD
Bob Rush
186
1.2
3.7
1.00
60
0
HOD
Jack Taylor
192
0.9
5.2
1.00
57
0
PHI
JM Ward
196
1.0
3.4
1.16
51
0.4
AL
POR
Bert Blyleven
204
0.9
5.6
1.00
59
0.3
BAL
Bob Feller
153
1.0
3.3
0.91
68
-0.3
POR
Walter Johnson
214
0.8
5.0
1.20
59
0
Sample size, of course, wrecks havoc with pitcher’s defensive stats. Still, we have what we have.
Not only does Bob Rush make a lot of plays, he keeps runners from stealing, and while Jack Taylor makes more spectacular plays, Rush’s ZR is more than good enough to take the award home. In the AL, Johnson and Blyleven are neck-and-neck, but we’ll go with Blyleven, who has a slight edge in most categories.
#The Gold Gloves
Pos
American League
National League
C
Iván Rodríguez (MCG)
Elrod Hendricks (HOD)
1B
Hank Greenberg (DET)
Joey Votto (IND)
2B
Miller Huggins (BAL)
Chase Utley (PHI)
SS
Arky Vaughan (CLE)
Ozzie Smith (KCM)
3B
Buddy Bell (POR)
Ron Cey (BRK)
LF
Johnny Bates (CLE)
Roy White (BRK)
CF
Paul Blair (BAL)
Willie Davis (PHI)
RF
Ichiro Suzuki (LAA)
Roberto Clemente (HOM)
P
Bert Blyleven (POR)
Bob Rush (HOD)
There are a surprising number of teams with 2 Gold Glove winners–Baltimore, Portland, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, and the House of David.
But the overall number of finalists may be more interesting, as it should give some indications as to the higher tier defensive units in the league. Here’s how that stacks up:
6. Cleveland 5. Philadelphia 4. House of David, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Portland 3. Baltimore, Detroit, New York Gothams, San Francisco 2. Birmingham, Brooklyn, Memphis, Miami, New York Black Yankees, Ottawa 1. Chicago, Homestead, Los Angeles
Once more, be sure to check the DH page if you don’t see an expected name here.
We have a new defensive metric for outfielders: ARM, which is an estimate of the number of runs saved (or allowed) from their throwing arms.
#S Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
PHI
Aaron Judge
27
278/382/699
63 HR 133 RBI 108 R
-3.4 ARM
Since being a bit of an add on in the Mike Schmidt trade, Aaron Judge has made himself the heart of the Stars’ offense, and fully deserves this ranking.
#A Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
CAG
Joe Jackson
25
355/410/608
107 R 55 SB
-5.7 ZR
AL
NYY
Mickey Mantle
22
255/368/601
56 HR 127 RBI 120 R 101 BB 21 SB
.972 fPct 3.8 ARM
NL
OTT
Larry Walker
23
268/349/649
54 HR 126 RBI 101 R
.993 fPct
Larry Walker continues to struggle with injury, but this a solid group. Joe Jackson was probably S-Tier last season, and Mickey Mantle may shift to CF at some point.
#B Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
BBB
Hank Aaron
22
294/316/603
51 HR 105 RBI
AL
CLE
Larry Doby
25
263/359/583
41 HR
.968 fPct -4.8 ARM
NL
HOU
Tony Gwynn
25
341/376/538
104 R 27 SB
7 A 1.70 RF -5.5 ZR .960 dEff
AL
BAL
Bryce Harper
21
256/358/550
41 HR 22 SB
1.61 RF .956 dEff
AL
DET
Al Kaline
21
286/356/602
36 HR
2.08 RF
AL
MCG
Yasiel Puig
23
298/388/658
30 HR
1.60 RF -5.4 ZR 0.8 ARM
Yasiel Puig‘s raw offense would actually move him up, but he didn’t play a full season, and that plus his defensive shortcomings are enough to keep him here. Each of these are key to their team, but each needs to improve to move up–Hank Aaron needs better strike zone control, Tony Gwynn more power, and Larry Doby and Bryce Harper just a shade more production somewhere.
#C Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
BRK
Beals Becker
23
283/330/566
39 HR 44 SB
8 A
AL
MEM
Mookie Betts
24
280/335/530
35 SB
1.000 fPct 7.6 RF 1.067 dEff -3.8 ARM
AL
SFS
Bobby Bonds
25
248/319/527
36 HR 47 SB
NL
NYG
Johnny Callison
26
262/328/571
39 HR
NL
HOM
Roberto Clemente
27
275/305/500
11 A 2.22 RF 7.1 ZR
NL
IND
George Foster
22
259/309/563
38 HR
.993 fPct 2.12 RF 1.064 dEff 1.5 ARM
NL
KCM
Stan Musial
22
300/371/519
33 SB
8.4 ZR 1.067 dEff
Interestingly, here is where all the defense rests. Roberto Clemente, and perhaps even Stan Musial, are only here because of their gloves–both can and should do more offensively in the future. George Foster was a very pleasant surprise for Indianapolis, and Mookie Betts may be the best pure baseball athlete not named Honus Wagner or Martín Dihigo in the game.
All very solid, with Musial and Betts the most likely to continue to develop.
#D Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
POR
Bobby Murcer
27
250/311/489
33 HR
AL
BAL
Ken Singleton
24
256/363/481
.967 fPct .925 dEff
NL
OTT
Sam Thompson
27
265/297/508
1.000 fPct
A hard group. Sam Thompson wasn’t really a full time player, but did qualify, and his power is clearly quite useful, as is Ken Singleton‘s ability to get on base. But all 3 of these are on the fringes of their teams’ plans for next year.
#F Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
HOD
Sammy Sosa
25
195/240/478
41 HR 20 SB
AL
LAA
Ichiro Suzuki
29
280/294/394
32 SB
7 A 1.000 fPct 5.7 RF
It’s such a rough league.
Sammy Sosa‘s 41 HR and Ichiro Suzuki‘s speed and defense are just not enough on their own: Sosa needs to do more than hit homeruns, and Suzuki needs to add offense across the board. Perhaps surprisingly given his age, the Angels remain committed to Suzuki’s upside, but it’s not clear if Sosa will get another change next season.
#Rookies
Foster (C Tier), Thompson (D Tier), and Suzuki (F Tier).
#Fielding Notes
We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Assists (A), more romantically referred to as Outfield Kills are runners eliminated on the bases. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.
Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.
There is a ton of offensive talent here, but it falls off drastically, and suffers from a lot of positional overlap. Add in downright poor pitching, and you have the worst team in the Bill James Division.
It’s not clear where Memphis goes, but it certainly looks like trading some of their positional depth for some pitching should be on the table.
THE OFFENSE
It’s a top heavy team, with some true standout talent.
#What’s Going Right
Ted Williams is an elite talent, and while his 298/412/619 slash line doesn’t move him into the absolute top tier, at 22 there is quite some room for improvement.
Manny Ramírez has stepped up dramatically from last year, leading the team with 42 HRs and 2nd behind Williams in RBI. Ramírez’ OPS has hovered around 1.000 all season, powered by a SLG in the mid .600’s.
David Ortiz has essentially displaced Bill White at 1B, slashing 286/370/680 in just over 300 PAs.
Gabby Hartnett is an excellent offensive C, posting an OPS in the mid 800’s with 37 HRs and his backup, Billy Bryan, has been even better offensively, with 14 HRs in 140 PA’s.
For a 20 year old, Dobie Moore‘s debut has to be considered a success, slashing 291/352/427 while playing across the IF.
#What’s Not Going Right
OF Mookie Betts and 3B Wade Boggs have been fine, but the Red Sox need more if they are going to compete.
Nobody getting a ton of playing time has really been awful offensively, although only Iván De Jesús‘ defensive flexibility has kept him in the league.
The positional distribution remains unsolved: Ortiz, White, and Travis Shaw all seem to be reasonable WBL alternatives at 1B, and the leading young talent (Hack Wilson and Lefty O’Doul) play the same positions as Reggie Smith, Betts, Ramírez, and Williams.
THE PITCHING
When your best pitcher is a middling middle reliever (Tommy de la Cruz, whose 6.20 ERA belies some very good supporting numbers), you’re in trouble.
#What’s Going Right
That is a little unfair to Stubby Overmire, who leads the team with 11 wins and looks like an excellent #2 or #3 rotation starter being asked to be a #1.
Andrew Miller‘s been solid out of the bullpen with a 7-8 record, 3 saves, and 11 holds while leading the WBL in appearances.
#What’s Not Going Right
Everything else.
David Bush, Len Barker, and Jon Lester have all failed to impress, with Bush (8-8, 6.82) being the best of a bad lot.
Some of the other hurlers given opportunities, especially Eddie Cicotte and Nixey Callahan, have been unbelievably bad.
There is some help, as Memphis has a middle-of-the-road farm system, with some strong talent that is blocked at the WBL level (all the more trade fodder for some pitching).
OFs Dwight Evans, Hack Wilson, Willie Crawford, Roy Thomas, Lefty O’Doul, and Carl Yastrzemski all look to have high ceilings. On the IF, it’s a bit more sparse, with Candy Jim Taylor and Joe Cunningham leading the way.
There is also some potential on the mound. Sadie McMahon remains well regarded despite his struggles, and he, Jim Kaat, Josh Beckett, and Nathan Eovaldi should all be given some long looks in the Spring.
WHAT’S NEEDED
A re-distribution of the talent, using some of the excess to bring some arms to town.
Storylines to Watch
Key Questions from Spring Training
Who is going to fill out the rotation and the bullpen? Remains totally unanswered.
Memphis’ scouts are agog over Dobie Moore, but scouts don’t play the game: is Moore the real thing and, if so, what happens to Vern Stephens? Moore looks to be the real thing, and Stephens was pretty bad, eventually moving on to Brooklyn (where, it must be said, he has flourished) for a 4th round pick.
Sosa was moved out, essentially for Gabby Hartnett, putting more pressure on the OF the step up. Hartnett is doing well, and the last thing the Red Sox need is more OF talent.
FEATURED SERIES
Since the Cuban Giants still have an outside shot at the playoffs, we’ll use the opportunity to focus on the Red Sox’s visit to Miami for a 4 game set at the start of the week.
Projected Starters
Memphis starter listed first, although I would expect at least a few of these to change.
David Bush (8-8, 6.82) @ Cole Hamels (11-10, 5.88) Stubby Overmire (11-9, 4.81) @ Jim Whitney (8-6, 3.90) Len Barker (10-12, 5.07) @ Phenomenal Smith (2-0, 1.93) TBA @ Hugh McQuillan (4-3, 4.82)
Just because it will make the end of the year far more interesting, let’s go with a 3-1 series win for Miami.
Game One
The Red Sox used 2 homeruns from Dustin Pedroia and just enough from their bullpen to take game 1, 8-6.
Memphis took the lead on a 2 run homer from Gabby Hartnett, but 2 wild pitches from David Bush (one in the 2nd, one in the 3rd) tied the game at 2.
Pedroia’s first homer, in the top of the 5th, put Memphis back on top. The Red Sox hit 3 out of the park in the 7th, getting homers from David Ortiz, Pedroia again, and Manny Ramírez. That gave the Red Sox an 8-2 lead, which should have been enough …
Except, Sadie McMahon, in relief of Bush, imploded, giving up 4 runs before being relieved by Andrew Miller. Miller, however, was effective, earning his 12th hold of the year, and Tommy de la Cruz closed the door for his 5th save as Memphis played spoiler to Miami’s Wild Card chase.
MEM 8 (Taylor 11-10) @ MCG 6 (Mathewson 7-15) HRs: MEM – Hartnett (38), Pedroia 2 (4), Ortiz (32), Ramírez (43); MCG – Oliver (8). Box Score
Game Two
Dean Chance got the start for Memphis in game 2 and was actually quite good. Unfortunately for Memphis, Miami’s Jim Whitney was better, allowing 3 hits and 1 run over 7 innings–a solo shot from Ted Williams in the top of the 1st–as the Cuban Giants edged the Red Sox, 6-1.
Miami got longballs from Julio Rodríguez, Jim Thome, and Joe Adcock in the victory.
MEM 1 (Chance 0-1) @ MCG 6 (Whitney 4-4, George 1 H) HRs: MEM- Williams (40); MCG – J. Rodríguez (37), Thome (54), Adcock (2). Box Score
Game Three
Bucky Walters would get the start for Memphis, with Miami countering with Phenomenal Smith, whose return from injury has come at just the right time for the Cuban Giants.
Memphis jumped on Smith in the top of the 1st with Bill White–whose playing time has declined regularly over the season–hitting a 3 run homerun. Miami tied the game in the 3rd with a 3 run homerun from Julio Rodríguez.
The Red Sox took the lead on a sacrifice fly from Wade Boggs in the top of the 5th, but 4 consecutive hits–doubles from Alejandro Oms, Rodríguez and Yasiel Puig wrapped around a single from José Canseco–chased Walters and gave the Cuban Giants a 6-4 advantage.
The Red Sox would score again, but not enough as Miami edged it, 7-6. Rodríguez continued his hot streak with 3 hits and 4 RBI’s, and the revamped Miami bullpen closed it out, this time with Ricky Nolasco getting the hold and Jonathan Papelbon his 8th save since coming over to the Cuban Giants.
MEM 6 (Walters 0-3) @ MCG 7 (Smith 3-0, Papelbon 8 Sv, Looper 10 H, Nolasco 3 H) HRs: MEM – White (23); MCG – Rodríguez (38). Box Score
Game 4
So this one matters as a series win would impact the post-season picture. Memphis would trot out their best starter, last year’s ERA champ, Stubby Overmire while Miami would counter with the impressive, but essentially untried, Hugh McQuillan.
Or, the once impressive, as the Red Sox jumped on him for 6 runs in 5 innings, and then pounded his relief, Don Wilson, for 4 more in an 11-3 rout.
The offensive onslaught was led by Ted Williams‘s 3 hits, but almost everyone got involved, with Williams, Lefty O’Doul, Wade Boggs, Mookie Betts, and Travis Shaw each going deep. Pair that with Overmire’s solid 7 innings, giving up 4 hits and 3 runs and–most surprisingly for Red Sox fans–2 scoreless innings in relief from Nixey Callahan–and you have an easy victory for Memphis and a vital defeat for Miami.
MEM 11 (Overmire 12-9) – MCG 3(McQuillan 4-4) HRs: MEM – Williams (41), O’Doul (2), Boggs (10), Betts (25), Shaw (18); MCG: Canseco (65). Box Score
The series split is a solid result for Memphis as it continues to give some of its young players time; a far more disappointing result for Miami, who look to fall just short of the postseason.
{Every year towards the end of the season, I do some legwork so when the awards roll around, it’s not as burdensome. This week, the fielders, next week, the rookies.}
We’re going to do this position by position, mixing the leagues, with the candidates listed alphabetically. 600 IP minimum, unless otherwise noted.
Last year, only 1 set of awards were given; this year, with the creation of the NL, there will be 2 at each position.
Some of the positions have their own things, but a note about some of the standard fielding statistics. Range Factor measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact.
Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.
#C
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
A
E
PB
ZR
RTO%
cERA
FRM
Johnny Bench
IND
NL
967
112
4
10
3.5
40%
5.26
7.6
Curt Blefary
BAL
AL
937
103
2
4
2.0
38%
5.68
1.6
Gary Carter
OTT
NL
900
114
5
9
4.3
42%
6.15
4.9
Josh Gibson
HOM
NL
973
102
3
6
-1.5
30%
5.98
7.7
Elrod Hendricks
HOD
NL
825
104
4
7
4.6
41%
5.47
3.9
Joe Mauer
POR
AL
974
129
5
6
2.7
37%
5.36
4.9
Thurman Munson
NYY
AL
957
91
6
2
3.0
36%
5.29
3.0
Mike Piazza
BRK
NL
966
88
2
12
-2.8
31%
4.62
4.5
Buster Posey
NYG
NL
933
100
4
9
2.6
39%
5.43
8.0
Iván Rodríguez
MCG
AL
917
116
2
14
5.3
47%
5.61
1.8
Ted Simmons
KCM
NL
907
108
5
5
2.4
37%
4.31
-2.3
IP = Innings Played; A = Assists; E = Errors; PB = Passed Balls; ZR = Zone Rating; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; cERA = Catcher’s ERA; FRM = Framing Runs Saved
Catcher’s stats are just all over the place.
It’s hard to take cERA and FRM all that seriously when they fall so far outside the bounds of the rest of the information at our disposal–although, to be fair, cERA is clearly tied to the quality of the staff and, as such, perhaps is best viewed as a net difference from the overall team ERA. Perhaps I’ll look at that for the actual awards.
Regardless, it feels like, if you look at a catcher’s primary job of making plays and keeping the opposition running game under control, Carter in the NL and Pudge in the AL are the frontrunners. The argument against each, if there is one, would have to focus on their league-leading (in the wrong way) PB numbers.
But this one doesn’t really feel close at this point.
Last year’s winner, Cleveland’s Louis Santop, has struggled so much offensively this year that his playing time has really dropped him out of contention, although his defensive performance remains top-notch.
#1B
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
A
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Mike Epstein
HOM
NL
957
952
56
80
4
8.93
3.0
1.016
Hank Greenberg
DET
AL
973
891
58
74
4
8.20
2.7
1.022
Kent Hrbek
POR
AL
884
846
45
79
5
8.57
1.8
1.028
Don Mattingly
NYY
AL
710
642
40
54
5
8.07
1.8
1.031
Dan McGann
BAL
AL
879
887
66
69
6
9.02
-1.9
.978
Boog Powell
KCM
NL
978
998
56
80
4
9.15
3.0
1.016
Joey Votto
IND
NL
942
863
62
76
0
8.25
4.5
1.040
Bill White
MEM
AL
793
812
35
66
6
9.15
0.4
1.007
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
The 2 best defensive 1Bs in the league–Kansas City’s Boog Powell and Indianapolis’ Joey Votto–are both in the NL. So the competition there is clear, as is, ultimately, the current frontrunner in Powell. Votto’s edge in the digital measures–ZR and Efficiency–may make this a more challenging choice at the end of the year.
In the AL, it’s far more confusing, but it feels like the discussion is between Detroit’s Hank Greenberg and the Black Yankees’ Don Mattingly. Mattingly hasn’t played a ton, so perhaps Greenberg edges him? Portland’s Kent Hrbek could probably edge into the discussion as well.
Will Clark of the New York Gothams, who won it last year, has been fine, but falls just short of contention.
#2B
Five 2B had only 3 errors, but 2 of them–Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson and Boston’s DJ LeMahieu–have under 700 innings at the position. LeMahieu is the leader in Defensive Efficiency, so he made the list, but Robinson did not.
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Roberto Alomar
OTT
NL
1035
511
62
10
4.36
-3.1
.978
Robinson Canó
KCM
NL
994
524
76
5
4.70
9.7
1.060
Eddie Collins
CAG
AL
995
528
77
11
4.67
-7.6
.943
Miller Huggins
BAL
AL
796
383
50
5
4.27
9.1
1.097
Chuck Knoblauch
CLE
AL
951
443
64
3
4.16
-9.6
.926
Nap Lajoie
HOM
NL
876
485
66
4
4.94
7.3
1.049
DJ LeMahieu
MEM
AL
644
345
53
3
4.78
7.7
1.110
Cookie Rojas
MCG
AL
738
363
62
3
4.39
-3.6
.965
Ryne Sandberg
HOD
NL
863
489
60
3
5.07
5.4
1.035
Chase Utley
PHI
NL
988
538
61
2
4.88
13.8
1.081
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
Ryne Sandberg and Napoleon Lajoie have had fine years at 2B, but Philadelphia’s Chase Utley has been fairly spectacular, leading the world in Zone Rating with excellent numbers across the board.
The AL is more confusing, as the best fielders–Miller Huggins and DJ LeMahieu–have yet to hit 800 innings in the field. But there really aren’t a lot of other contenders: Eddie Collins, who won it last year, has amassed a ton of time at 2B, and hence is among the leaders in the counting stats, but his other numbers are surprisingly bad.
#SS
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Jim Fregosi
POR/PHI
AL/NL
1077
497
60
8
4.09
-10.6
.940
Derek Jeter
NYY
AL
1061
504
67
16
4.14
-19.0
.911
Barry Larkin
IND
NL
705
380
49
9
4.74
8.3
1.085
Dick Lundy
SFS
AL
838
411
46
6
4.35
8.2
1.057
Freddy Parent
CAG
AL
888
508
56
11
5.04
13.2
1.058
Ozzie Smith
KCM
NL
1019
543
67
5
4.75
11.0
1.068
Arky Vaughan
CLE
AL
940
444
53
8
4.17
10.4
1.085
Robin Yount
MCG
AL
952
473
59
6
4.41
8.3
1.052
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
It feels like the choices here are pretty clear: Ozzie Smith in the NL and Freddy Parent in the AL. Smith should be uncontroversial, but Parent is subject to some discussion, as he is getting less and less playing time for the American Giants. If it’s not Parent, it is probably Arky Vaughan or Robin Yount, with the question being whether Yount’s surer hands outweigh Vaughan’s greater range.
George Davis, who won it last year, logged just under 50 games with Detroit before being sent to AAA and suffering a significant injury.
#3B
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
DP
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
Dick Allen
CAG
AL
1046
260
24
15
2.11
0.5
1.010
Buddy Bell
POR
AL
1045
296
23
8
2.48
7.9
1.054
Adrián Beltré
OTT
NL
936
272
6
7
2.55
0.3
1.007
Ron Cey
BRK
NL
956
278
24
7
2.55
4.7
1.035
Manny Machado
BAL
AL
857
259
14
10
2.61
0.9
1.013
Eddie Mathews
BBB
NL
1014
291
29
8
2.51
-2.6
.986
Doug Rader
LAA
AL
1047
287
26
13
2.35
0.9
1.021
Scott Rolen
PHI
NL
973
265
16
7
2.39
4.0
1.050
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
Portland’s Buddy Bell has probably been the best 3B in the WBL this season, so he should take the award in the AL. In the NL, it currently comes down to Scott Rolen and Ron Cey, whose numbers are pretty indistinguishable at this point, perhaps with a slight edge to Cey.
#LF
For the OF, DP is replaced by Outfield Kills, and we introduce ARM, a measurement of how many runs have resulted from runners taking extra bases on balls hit to the that fielder. Note that positive ARM ratings are relatively rare: runners do tag up.
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
K
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
ARM
Johnny Bates
CLE
AL
1006
205
4
2
2.09
7.0
1.053
-1.0
Bob Bescher
IND
NL
681
149
1
2
1.94
-4.3
.950
-2.1
Don Buford
LAA/NYG
AL/NL
705
127
0
1
1.61
-2.8
.957
-0.6
Rickey Henderson
SFS
AL
1040
199
3
4
1.69
10.0
1.104
-2.8
Sherry Magee
PHI
NL
658
127
1
0
1.74
3.7
1.046
-1.9
Bob Nieman
BBB
NL
720
145
4
2
1.79
-1.0
.961
-1.6
Frank Robinson
BAL
AL
897
184
4
2
1.83
0.3
.998
-1.8
Babe Ruth
NYY
AL
627
128
1
2
1.81
5.7
1.084
-1.3
Roy White
BRK
NL
1006
213
5
2
1.89
9.3
1.075
-1.2
Jim Wynn
HOU
NL
755
140
0
2
1.64
-4.4
.955
3.3
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
It feels like Roy White has a shot at being the first repeat winner as he has once again proven incredibly dependable in LF for Brooklyn, while adding more Kills and excellent supporting numbers.
In the AL, It feels like it’s the range of Rickey Henderson against the overall dependability of Johnny Bates–who actually makes more plays the Rickey, but some of that is down to staff effects.
Have to call out the nutty ARM rating for Jim Wynn, which is as flukish as fluke can be.
#CF
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
K
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
ARM
Paul Blair
BAL
AL
838
251
3
2
2.73
10.4
1.084
-2.3
Chili Davis
DET
AL
979
283
13
8
2.53
-12.5
.928
1.5
Willie Davis
PHI
NL
898
287
4
3
2.85
15.2
1.109
-2.0
Curtis Granderson
BBB
NL
974
317
1
5
2.88
4.8
1.030
-4.6
Pete Hill
HOU
NL
800
222
2
2
2.47
0.7
.997
-2.8
Willie Mays
NYG
NL
1065
327
3
4
2.73
11.3
1.046
-4.2
Willie McGee
KCM
NL
845
261
10
7
2.71
-5.9
.963
-1.4
Mike Trout
LAA
AL
940
282
2
1
2.69
-0.2
1.006
-3.3
Vernon Wells
CAG
AL
624
209
2
3
2.97
-5.2
.968
-2.6
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
Not a lot to pick from in the AL, which increases Paul Blair‘s chance at a repeat selection. It probably comes down to Blair’s overall excellence against the spectacular highlight reel nature of Chili Davis‘ year: Davis hasn’t made all the plays, but has thrown out 13 runners. Mike Trout is in the conversation, but Blair edges him across the board, and is the likely frontrunner.
In the NL, things are much deeper, and we run into the question of how to weigh playing time. Willie Mays has similar numbers to Willie Davis, but over 200 more innings in the field, which I think is enough to give him the edge. Some mention should be made of the steady Curtis Granderson and the surprising 10 kills from Kansas City’s Willie McGee.
#RF
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
K
E
RNG
ZR
Eff
ARM
Beals Becker
BRK
NL
1022
233
7
3
2.03
3.0
1.007
0.7
Mookie Betts
MEM
AL
775
166
1
0
1.93
6.8
1.076
-3.7
Roberto Clemente
HOM
NL
973
243
8
6
2.19
5.6
1.050
-3.1
Larry Doby
CLE
AL
768
186
1
7
2.10
5.0
1.064
-4.2
Stan Musial
KCM
NL
801
157
2
4
1.72
7.0
1.072
0.8
Ichiro Suzuki
LAA
AL
1035
227
5
0
1.97
5.4
1.036
-2.4
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency
This is very close in both leagues.
In the NL, you could make an argument for all 3 of the contenders: Brooklyn’s Beals Becker has been steady across the board; Stan Musial covers a huge amount of ground for Kansas City and has a higher ARM than Becker; and Roberto Clemente makes the most plays and has the most Kills. I think it’s Clemente or Musial, with Musial slightly in front, maybe?
Over in the AL, it’s between Mookie Betts and Ichiro Suzuki, neither of whom have made an error in RF this season. Betts has been slightly better with the glove, Suzuki slightly better with the arm. Perhaps Suzuki, partially because he has played more innings in RF than anyone.
Last year’s winner, Johnny Callison, has done well this season, but is just out of the conversation. Mention should be made of Ottawa’s Larry Walker as well: Walker doesn’t cover a ton of ground, but has only made a single error in RF this season.
#P
125 IP minimum.
A few additional stat for hurlers, including the number of steal attempts and the % thrown out as well as the number of runs gained through their catcher’s ability to frame strikes. Obviously, both of these are highly dependent on the quality of backstop, but they also do impact the evaluation of the pitcher.
We’ve also taking out E and DP as stats, as odd as that may seem, as there is just not enough variance to really make much of them.
Name
Tm
Lg
IP
TC
RNG
ZR
Eff
SBA
RTO%
FRM
Roger Clemens
HOU
NL
183
13
0.64
-3.0
1.659
61
25
-0.4
Gerrit Cole
LAA
AL
155
21
1.22
0.5
1.438
44
32
0.4
Pud Galvin
LAA
AL
130
24
1.66
1.3
1.149
31
39
-0.7
Bump Hadley
SFS
AL
164
30
1.65
-0.3
.996
62
34
0.5
Walter Johnson
POR
AL
189
19
0.91
4.8
1.217
28
61
0.3
José Méndez
MCG
AL
200
20
0.90
4.4
1.086
43
56
-0.7
Stubby Overmire
MEM
AL
175
21
1.08
2.2
.853
16
63
-0.0
Gaylord Perry
NYG
NL
185
31
1.51
-0.3
.996
35
29
0.7
Toad Ramsey
HOU
NL
196
18
0.78
1.0
.913
42
41
-0.5
Bob Rush
HOD
NL
156
26
1.44
3.3
.996
19
63
0.0
Jack Taylor
HOD
NL
163
19
1.05
5.6
.996
41
63
0.0
Doc White
IND
NL
130
8
0.55
1.8
.996
18
50
1.9
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency; SBA = Stolen Bases Attempted; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; FRM = Framing Runs
Who knows? Small sample sizes are rough, although it is nice to see last year’s winner, Jack Taylor, make a return appearance.
Taylor makes a lot of plays, and is very hard to run on, both of which count for quite a bit. I think an argument could be made for Pud Galvin, as well as for Taylor’s teammate, Bob Rush, but I would expect a fair bit of this to change over the final month of the season.
We’ll preview the All Star selections, so this will be a bit of a longer entry.
#Awards
Lots of awards, as we moved into a new month!
First, the smaller ones. Houston‘s Jeff Bagwell was the National League Player of the Week, hitting .409 with 5 homeruns while Eric Davis of the juggernaut New York Black Yankees was the American League Player of the Week, hitting .481 with 5 homers in the same span.
In the monthly awards, the American League Rookie of the Month for June was San Francisco‘s Turkey Stearnes, who hit .378 with 11 homeruns in the month.
Kansas City‘s A. Rube Foster was both the National League Rookie of the Month and the NL Pitcher of the Month, going 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA, as the young hurler announced himself as, at least so far, a premier WBL starter. The American League Pitcher of the Month was Bump Hadley, Stearnes’ teammate in San Francisco. Hadley was 5-0 in June with a 2.66 ERA.
Ottawa‘s star backstop, Gary Carter, was the National League Batter of the Month, hitting .397 with 14 homeruns in June while in the American League, unsurprisingly, the award went to the stellar Ty Cobb. The Detroit OF hit .408 with 11 homers in June, which actually brought his overall average down in that span (Cobb is leading the WBL in BA at .418).
#Team Performance
Yawn.
The Black Yankees and the Sea Lions continue to be the 2 best teams in the league, leading their divisions by 5 and 11 games respectively.
The Effa Manley Division might offer some excitement in the second half, as Brooklyn still leads Homestead by 4 and the New York Gothams by 5.5. But the only true race is in the Marvin Miller Division, where Kansas City has overtaken Indianapolis, now leading the ABC’s by 2.5 games.
The Houston Colt 45’s are 8-2 over their last 10 games, but still sit 5 games under .500. Detroit and Philadelphia are moving in the other direction, with each team managing only 2 wins in their last 10 contests.
Birmingham still has the worst record in the league, but they have moved over .400, sitting at .410 (34-49).
#Player Performance
Batters
It’s still Ty Cobb’s world, although Babe Ruth is doing Babe Ruth things, and reached the 40 homerun plateau during the last week.
José Canseco (MCG). 254/375/734. 36 HR. Oscar Charleston (IND). 336/386/642. 103 H, 9 3B. Ty Cobb (DET). 416/464/885. 116 H, 37 2B, 8 3B, 5.8 WAR. Josh Gibson (HOM). 392/481/748. 5.1 WAR. Tony Gwynn (HOU). 389/425/601. 116 H. Pete Hill (HOU). 291/371/487. 10 3B. Joe Jackson (CAG). 356/398/588. 103 H, 39 2B. Stan Musial (KCM). 329/392/573. 37 2B. Babe Ruth (NYY). 292/426/775. 40 HR, 90 RBI, 82 R, 68 BB, 5.0 WAR. Larry Walker (OTT). 293/369/721. 36 HR, 85 RBI.
Rickey Henderson (San Francisco) and Tim Raines (Ottawa) continue to be 1-2 in the league in steals, but it’s getting closer, with Henderson’s edge now 60 to 53.
Pitchers
Starters
While his performance has been somewhat below par, the New York Gothams’ Christy Mathewson continues to be definition of workhorse, leading the WBL with 20 starts, 2 ahead of a bevy of hurlers with 18.
7 pitchers have reached double-digits in wins, with Luis Padrón (Indianapolis) leading the way at 11-2. All 7 are included below. Houston’s Toad Ramsey was so dominant for so long, he is still the top starter in the league despite a recent dip in form, but I would probably choose Lefty Grove of San Francisco or the emergent A. Rube Foster.
Frank Castillo (KCM). 10-1, 4.22. A. Rube Foster (KCM). 5-1, 2.30. .203 BABIP, 0.98 WHIP, 3.70 FIP. Lefty Grove (SFS). 10-4, 3.71. 126 IP, 132 K, 3.1 WAR. Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-4, 3.86. 143 K, 3.80 FIP, 3.2 WAR. Bump Hadley (SFS). 11-4, 4.21, 3.50 FIP, 3.0 WAR. Orel Hershiser (BRK). 10-4, 3.87. Luis Padrón (IND). 11-2, 4.21. 3.57 FIP, 3.3 WAR. Eddie Plank (SFS). 11-3, 3.54. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 11-4, 2.77. 124 IP, 152 K, 0.89 WHIP, 2.80 FIP, 5.2 WAR. Ed Walsh (CAG). 6-3, 3.41. 1 Sv, .201 BABIP. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 7-7, 3.41. 3.66 FIP, 3.4 WAR.
Relievers
We’ve listed the top 3 leaders in saves, all 5 of the relievers who have reached double digits in Holds, as well as all 5 with an ERA below 2.00.
18 IP minimum.
Rod Beck (SFS). 3-2, 3.47. 21 Sv. Rheal Cormier (NYY). 0-2, 6.03. 11 H. Eric Gagne (BRK). 1-1, 2.92. 19 Sv. Ken Howell (SFS). 4-1, 1.72. 1 Sv, 4 H. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-4, 4.13. 1 Sv, 10 H. Brad Kilby (PHI). 1-2, 4.39. 2 Sv, 10 H. Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 2-1, 1.14. 2 Sv, 11 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 4-2, 3.45. 20 Sv. Rob Murphy (IND). 1-3, 3.75. 1 Sv, 11 H. Robb Nen (NYG). 3-2, 1.95. 9 Sv, 6 H. Ron Robinson (SFS). 1-0, 1.64. 3 Sv, 3 H. BJ Ryan (OTT). 1-2, 4.15. 1 Sv, 10 H. Harley Young (BBB). 1-0, 1.23. 3 Sv, 5 H.
#Injury Report
Portland lost half of their backstop platoon as AJ Pierzynski will be out for close to a month. News was worse for Ottawa, as SP Bob Moose is out for close to a year.
Houston’s Casey Stengel and Kansas City’s Lou Brock are awaiting diagnosis on their current injuries.
Baltimore’s Bobby Wallace, Detroit’s Billy Hoeft, and the Black Yankees’ Dave Righetti should all begin rehab assignments this week.
#The All Star Candidates
We’ll look at these by position, mixing the two leagues for the time being.
For each position, we’ve included as many players as it takes to have at least 3-4 candidates from each league, highlighting some pretty severe disparities in talent between the AL and the NL.
If players don’t qualify for the batting stats, their playing time is noted, as are some other potentially influencing factors. This indicates a leader at that position among the players listed (but not necessarily overall).
Each league can only select 32 players for the All Star Game itself (usually 20 or 21 position players and 11 or 12 pitchers), so quite a few of the players listed here will be left on the outside looking in.
#C
The NL dominates here, with 3 catchers with an OPS over 1.000. That means some worthy candidates–most notably NYG’s Buster Posey –are likely to miss out.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Josh Gibson
HOM / NL
1.229
5.1 WAR; 67 RBI
3.1 FRM
Gary Carter
OTT /NL
1.073
28 HR
47.1 RTO%
Mike Piazza
BRK / NL
1.042
29 HR; 65 RBI
4.87 CERA
Ed Bailey
DET / AL
.972
57 G/216 PA; 43.6 RTO%
Jim Pagliaroni
BBB / NL
.925
61 G/231 PA
Mickey Cochrane
SFS / AL
.917
10 SB; 4.39 CERA
Ted Simmons
KCM / NL
.900
63 G/256 PA; 4.15 CERA
Buster Posey
NYG / NL
.870
3.8 FRM
Joe Mauer
POR / AL
.856
14 SB
Curt Blefary
BAL /AL
.826
Carlton Fisk
CAG / AL
.800
67 G/254 PA; 11 SB
FRM = Framing Runs | RTO% = Runners Thrown Out | CERA = Catcher ERA
The other stalwart defensive catchers–Miami‘s Iván Rodríguez and Indianapolis’ Johnny Bench–just haven’t hit enough, although a late surge by Bench has moved him up these lists.
I don’t think there is any question in the NL, where it’s Gibson, Carter, and Piazza. Cochrane and Mauer should be in for the AL, with a question of whether you go with Bailey’s bat in more limited appearances or Blefary. Should the NL decide to carry 4 backstops, the choice between Pagliaroni and Simmons (and, perhaps, Posey) is close.
Gibson and Cochrane should be the starters.
#1B
The AL has a slight edge here, but there’s a lot of talent throughout.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Lou Gehrig
NYY / AL
1.057
28 HR; 21 2B; 65 RBI
.995 Fldg
Will Clark
NYG / NL
1.006
Frank Thomas
CAG / AL
1.004
Hank Greenberg
DET / AL
.991
26 HR
.998 Fldg; 3.1 ZR
Mike Epstein
HOM / NL
.965
Anthony Rizzo
HOD / NL
.964
Lance Berkman
CLE / AL
.957
Jim Thome
MCG / AL
.927
28 HR; 64 RBI
Jeff Bagwell
HOU / NL
.923
66 RBI
.995 Fldg
Boog Powell
KCM / NL
.920
.995 Fldg; 9.23 RF; 2.9 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Gehrig and Clark are almost certainly the starters, and the AL will likely take Thomas and Greenberg as well. In the NL, it gets a little trickier, as Powell (along with Greenberg) is one of the better 1B defensively. Epstein’s offense will carry him, but after that my guess is Rizzo gets the selection (but cannot participate via injury), and is replaced by Powell, with Bagwell having a legitimate complaint.
#2B
The NL is ridiculously stacked in terms of offensive-minded 2B.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Joe Morgan
IND / NL
1.088
47 G/199 PA
Roberto Alomar
OTT/ NL
1.008
21 2B; 18 HR; 64 RBI; 31 SB; 3.5 WAR
Ryne Sandberg
HOD / NL
.995
28 HR; 60 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.997 Fldg; 5.00 RF
Jackie Robinson
BRK / NL
.938
Rogers Hornsby
POR / AL
.919
53 G/234 PA
Charlie Gehringer
DET / AL
.876
57 G/225 PA; .989 Fldg; 5.09 RF
Eddie Collins
CAG / AL
.850
36 SB
Bobby Grich
LAA / AL
.845
15 HR
Craig Biggio
HOU / NL
.841
Chase Utley
PHI / NL
.781
4.92 RF; 9.3 ZR
Cookie Rojas
MCG / AL
.766
27 2B
.987 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Joe Morgan is included just for interest–he missed too much time to injury to warrant serious consideration. Detroit’s Charlie Gehringer, on the other hand, probably makes the cut, despite starting the season in the minors.
In the NL, it’s pretty clear: Alomar, Sandberg, and Robinson, with the starter being decided between Sandberg and Alomar over the next week. The AL is trickier, but I think it ends up going according to form: Eddie Collins to start, with Gehringer and Hornsby behind him.
#SS
It’s pretty impressive there are this many shortstops that can hit, and Ernie Banks‘ production is incredible.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ernie Banks
HOD/ NL
.978
30 HR; 71 RBI
Cal Ripken, Jr.
BAL / AL
.967
39 G/140 PA; .993 Fldg; 4.90 RF
Carlos Correa
HOU/ NL
.929
18 2B; 2.8 WAR
Arky Vaughan
CLE / AL
.887
19 2B; 2.4 WAR
6.3 ZR
Álex Rodríguez
OTT / NL
.885
23 HR
Robin Yount
MCG / AL
.845
15 HR
5.8 ZR
Jim Fregosi
POR / AL
.793
Dick Lundy
SFS / AL
.783
7 3B; 2.1 WAR; 33 SB
Derek Jeter
NYY / AL
.762
Dobie Moore
MEM / AL
.750
22 SB
.983 Fldg
Ozzie Smith
KCM / NL
.672
19 2B; 25 SB
.994 Fldg; 6.3 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Ripken, Jr. is really not a serious contender, but he has been impressive in the 40 G’s he’s played. That gives us Banks, Correa, and Rodríguez in the NL and Vaughan, Yount, and either Fregosi or Lundy in the AL.
Smith is included because of his superlative defense, but doesn’t probably make the cut.
This is an interesting position: Vaughan and Rodríguez changed teams in the off season, and Correa’s performance has been a bit of a shock.
#3B
The top 5 are locks, beyond that, it gets much trickier, especially in the NL.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Albert Pujols
KCM / NL
1.046
32 2B; 60 RBI; 2.8 WAR
Ron Cey
BRK / NL
.967
2.4 WAR
.976 Fldg; 3.3 ZR
Gary Sheffield
MCG/ AL
.929
22 HR; 55 RBI; 15 SB
Evan Longoria
CLE / AL
.926
2.2 ZR
Mike Schmidt
NYY / AL
.926
23 HR; 55 RBI
2.59 RF
Scott Rolen
PHI / NL
.922
2.1 WAR
.974 Fldg; 2.7 ZR
Ron Santo
HOD /NL
.906
52 G/192 PA
Eddie Mathews
BBB / NL
.904
24 HR
.978 Fldg; 2.66 RF
Wade Boggs
MEM / AL
.896
26 2B
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
After Pujols and Cey, it’s hard in the NL. Matthews and Rolen edge ahead of Santo due to defense and Santo’s relative low usage, but picking between the two of them is very challenging, to the point the NL may go with 4 players at the hot corner.
#OF
All of the OF spots are a bit combined in the end, but we’re keeping them separate for the sake of comparison.
#LF
When Detroit’s Ty Cobb plays the OF, he plays here as well, making the AL selections pretty simple.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Babe Ruth
NYY / AL
1.201
40 HR; 90 RBI; 5.0 WAR
.988 Fldg; 5.1 ZR
Ted Williams
MEM / AL
1.063
23 2B; 65 RBI
Frank Robinson
BAL / AL
1.035
24 HR; 64 RBI; 2.3 WAR
1.000 Fldg
Adam Dunn
IND / NL
.906
24 HR
.989 Fldg; 3.41 RF
Roy White
BRK / NL
.866
Oscar Gamble
DET / AL
.852
Rickey Henderson
SFS / AL
.840
2.8 WAR; 60 SB
7.2 ZR
Tim Raines
OTT / NL
.773
7 3B; 53 SB
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
So, Ruth, Williams, and Robinson are in, and perhaps Henderson’s 60+ SB warrant a spot. In the NL, it’s more challenging. Dunn seems to be a lock, and White is a bit of a sentimental choice. It may be just those 2 from this group.
#CF
Tris Speaker, as despicable of a human being as he is, is the best in the AL right now, especially considering the defensive contribution. Over in the NL, Willie Mays probably edges Oscar Charleston as the starter.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Rick Monday
OTT /NL
1.172
41 G/136 PA
Tris Speaker
CLE / AL
1.088
31 2B; 4.0 WAR
2.68 RF; 5.1 ZR; 6 Kills
Turkey Stearnes
SFS / AL
1.065
7 3B; 24 HR
Eric Davis
NYY / AL
1.058
26 SB
41 G/188 PA; 1.000 Fldg
Julio Rodríguez
MCG / AL
1.052
39 G/177 PA
Oscar Charleston
IND / NL
1.027
9 3B; 60 RBI; 24 SB
Willie Mays
NYG / NL
.977
31 HR; 62 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.990 Fldg; 2.70 RF; 7.7 ZR
Mike Trout
LAA / AL
.965
24 2B; 2.8 WAR; 21 SB
1.000 Fldg
Carlos Beltrán
OTT / NL
.916
63 RBI; 21 SB
Alejandro Oms
MCG / AL
.883
5 3B
6.3 ZR
Curtis Granderson
BBB / NL
.876
26 HR
3.01 RF
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Monday, Davis, and Rodríguez aren’t really in contention, but their performances in limited action have been pretty spectacular.
Speaker, Stearnes, and Trout are pretty much locks in the AL, with Oms being a hard luck case. Beltrán deserves the spot behind Mays and Charleston.
#RF
A deep, deep group, probably 4 deep in each league.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
José Canseco
MCG / AL
1.109
36 HR
Larry Walker
OTT / NL
1.090
36 HR; 85 RBI; 22.4 WAR
3.89 RF
Reggie Jackson
SFS / AL
1.027
63 RBI; 2.8 WAR; 24 SB
Tony Gwynn
HOU / NL
1.026
6 3B; 24 2B; 2.8 WAR
Aaron Judge
PHI / NL
.994
.992 Fldg
Mickey Mantle
NYY / AL
.993
30 HR; 76 RBI
Joe Jackson
CAG /AL
.986
39 2B; 27 SB
Stan Musial
KCM / NL
.964
37 2B
5.5 ZR
Johnny Callison
NYG / NL
.945
.993 Fldg
Mookie Betts
MEM / AL
.865
24 2B
1.000 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Canseco, Mantle, and the 2 Jacksons seem locks in the AL, with Walker, Gwynn, and Judge in the NL. It’s possible Musial misses the cut, as ridiculous as that sounds.
#DH
The pressure here is immense, given the competition for the other OF spots.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ty Cobb
DET / AL
1.350
37 2B; 8 3B; 26 HR; 73 RBI; 5.8 WAR; 31 SB
Kal Daniels
LAA / AL
1.023
21 2B; 2.3 WAR; 30 SB
Manny Ramírez
MEM / AL
.986
56 G/224 PA
Ryan Braun
MCG/ AL
.982
31 HR
Willie Stargell
HOM / NL
.980
27 HR
Gavvy Cravath
BAL / AL
.926
22 2B; 69 RBI
Benny Kauff
NYG / NL
.909
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Cobb is, of course, a lock, and it would be hard to keep Daniels off the roster. Beyond that, though, it gets difficult to justify a pure DH, although Braun, Stargell, and Cravath all have decent arguments.
#P
Pitching is, of course, a constant crapshoot, and a lot could change in the outings this week.
All pitchers are sorted by ERA.
#SP
This list has everyone with an ERA under 4.00 or 10 or more wins.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Toad Ramsey
HOU / NL
11-4, 2.77
152 K; 0.89 WHIP; 5.2 WAR; 2.80 FIP
71% QS; 5 CG; 2 SHO; 2.34 SIERA; 1.7 WPA
Doc Gooden
LAA / AL
7-5, 3.17
Hardie Henderson
PHI/ NL
9-6, 3.18
Smokey Joe Williams
BRK / NL
7-7, 3.41
3.4 WAR
Ed Walsh
CAG / AL
6-3, 3.41
1.06 WHIP
Eddie Plank
SFS / AL
11-3, 3.54
Roger Clemens
HOU / NL
9-4, 3.71
65% QS
Lefty Grove
SFS / AL
10-4, 3.71
132 K
4 CG; 3 SHO; 2.87 SIERA
Johnny Cueto
IND / NL
8-4, 3.75
67% QS
Rube Foster
IND / NL
6-4, 3.80
Ron Guidry
NYY / AL
8-4, 3.86
143 K
2.58 SIERA
Orel Hershiser
BRK / NL
10-4, 3.87
Brett Anderson
LAA / AL
7-2, 3.91
1.06 WHIP
Andy Pettitte
NYY / AL
9-5, 4.05
Bump Hadley
SFS / AL
11-4, 4.21
3.50 FIP
Luis Padrón
IND / NL
11-2, 4.21
3.3 WA; 3.57 FIP
Frank Castillo
KCM / NL
10-1, 4.22
3 CG; 2 SHO
José Méndez
MCG / AL
6-4, 4.45
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Right now, I would guess the starting matchup is Toad Ramsey for the NL and Eddie Plank for the AL.
Beyond that, in the AL, I see Gooden, Walsh, and Grove as easy picks. Guidry is likely in as well, leaving Anderson and Hadley on the bubble.
The NL is much harder to figure out. Henderson, Hershiser, Padrón, and Castillo feel like they deserve selections, with Williams having a very strong case as well. That would leave some excellent performances–Clemens and Cueto especially–on the outside looking in.
#Swingmen / Long Relivers
These are players who are either swing starters or have seen more innings than the finishers below. As is often the case, there are a few folks here who, for whatever the reason, took a while to be inserted into the rotation.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
A. Rube Foster
KCM/ NL
5-1, 2.30
0.98 WHIP
7 GS; 90 IP; 86% QS; 2 SHO; 1.0 WPA
Jim Whitney
BBB / NL
4-2, 3.26
1 Sv; 2 H; 1.03 WHIP
11 GS; 94 IP; 73% QS; 1.9 WPA
Tom Brewer
SFS / AL
0-1, 2.33
1 Sv; 2 H
2 GS; 27 IP
Fernando Valenzuela
BRK / NL
5-0, 2.37
1 Sv; 4 H; 0.96 WHIP
1 GS; 60 IP; 1.0 WPA
Rheal Cormier
NYY / AL
0-2, 6.03
11 H
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Foster and Valenzuela seem clear selections, with Brewer and Cormier missing the cut and Whitney being on the bubble.
#Closers & Setups
20 IP Minimum, with a possible exception for Brian Wilson of the New York Gothams.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Brian Wilson
NYG/ NL
1-0, 1.08
11 Sv
17 IP
Craig Kimbrel
KCM / NL
2-1, 1.14
2 Sv; 11 H; 0.89 WHIP
15 SD; 5.6 IRS%; 2.90 SIERA; 2.0 WPA
Harley Young
BBB / NL
1-0, 1.23
3 Sv; 5 H
Ron Robinson
SFS / AL
1-0, 1.64
3 Sv; 3 H
Ken Howell
SFS / AL
4-1, 1.72
1 Sv; 4 H
Robb Nen
NYG / NL
3-2, 1.95
9 Sv; 6 H
Eddie Guardado
KCM / NL
2-1, 2.08
1 Sv; 5 H
2.92 SIERA
Tug McGraw
HOU / NL
3-3, 2.16
7 Sv
Ross Reynolds
LAA / AL
2-0, 2.19
1 Sv; 1 H
Goose Gossage
NYY / AL
2-3, 2.32
9 Sv; 8 H
.90 Sv%
Lee Smith
HOD / NL
4-1, 2.73
5 Sv; 6 H; 0.73 WHIP
Eric Gagne
BRK / NL
1-1, 2.92
19 Sv
17 SD
Justin Hampson
BAL / AL
0-0, 3.00
7 H; 0.95 WHIP
Terry Adams
CLE / AL
1-2, 3.18
15 Sv; 2 H
.94 Sv%
Josh Lindblom
HOM / NL
4-2, 3.45
20 Sv
.95 Sv%; 16 SD; 1.3 WPA
Rod Beck
SFS / AL
3-2, 3.47
21 Sv; 0.73 WHIP
15 SD
Rob Murphy
IND / NL
1-3, 3.75
1 Sv; 11 H
Michael Jackson
HOM / NL
1-4, 4.13
1 Sv; 10 H
BJ Ryan
OTT / NL
1-2, 4.15
1 Sv; 10 H
Brad Kilby
PHI / NL
1-2, 4.39
2 Sv; 10 H
2.73 SIERA
Rob Dibble
IND / NL
2-2, 5.25
16 Sv
Jeff Pfeffer
KCM / NL
1-3, 5.61
16 Sv
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
A difficult set of choices for sure. Of the true closers, Gagne, Lindblom, and Beck seem locks, with Kimbrel, Young, Howell, Nen, McGraw, Gossage, and Smith deserving nods as well.
That would give the NL 7 selections, likely keeping Wilson from making the team. It would also give the AL only 3, opening the door for Adams and even Reynolds or Hampson.
The Angels sit at exactly .500, closer to last than to first in the Cum Posey Division (5 games behind division leaders San Francisco, 3.5 games out ahead of last place Portland).
Honestly, a .500 finish is probably the goal for the year, so as far as that goes, they’re on track. It’s just hard to get all that excited about that. But you can see things happening for this team, both offensively and, if you look at the talent scattered throughout their minor league system, on the mound.
THE OFFENSE
There’s a budding superstar here, surrounded by a fair number of question marks. That’s not quite fair: Mike Troutis a budding superstar, but Bobby Grich and Doug Rader are both solid, Kal Daniels continues to demonstrate all the tools, and rookie OF Ichiro Suzuki looks set for a long WBL career.
Currently, though, this offense is just about the definition of league average, sitting 9th or 10th in almost all statistical categories.
#What’s Going Right
Trout is still not an elite power hitter, but every other part of his game is on point and Grich, who leads the team in HR with 10, produces far above the norm offensively for 2B. Veteran Carlos Delgado continues to deliver, and may end up being a pretty attractive trade piece if Los Angeles loses contact with the division leaders.
George Wright‘s return from injury has helped to settle the situation at SS, but Wright will always struggle to add much with the bat.
#What’s Not Going Right
Steve Garvey‘s continued struggles may send him down to the minors, and more and more it looks like his future will be at 1B, not 3B. C is a mess, with the platoon of AJ Pierzynski and Jeff Torborg struggling enough that the team plans to recall John Stearns from AAA this week.
With Suzuki, Wright, Garvey, and Mark Ellis all seeing at least semi-regular playing time, the Angels have a lot of players who are pretty allergic to taking a walk.
THE PITCHING
Los Angeles has somehow put together a top end pitching staff. It’s not likely to last top to bottom, but the higher end talent is very encouraging.
#What’s Going Right
Doc Gooden has been spectacular, with the 22 year old sporting a 2.60 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, but only a 4-3 record across 8 starts. Last year’s ace, Gerrit Cole, has struggled a bit, but the contributions of Tom Seaver (3-2, 3.88) and Brett Anderson (3-2, 4.60), along with the steady innings eating ability of Pud Galvin, has given Los Angeles a very strong rotation. And Cole, at 25, is the veteran of the bunch.
Roy Patterson, Ross Reynolds, and Mike Smith have been excellent in the middle innings, and Joe Nathan has 8 saves.
Perhaps most of all, the Angels decision to send Nolan Ryan and Chuck Finley to the minors seems to have paid off, with each of them performing well at AA.
#What’s Not Going Right
Not a lot, although the back end of the bullpen has been a little weak, with Francisco Rodríguez and Julio Teheran struggling and Nathan’s peripheral numbers being far rougher than his record may indicate.
Lefty Noah Lowry has been very ineffective, and his holding on to his roster spot by his fingernails.
Derrek Lee has struggled, and is in danger of losing his job to Wally Joyner, although that would leave the Angels with 2 lefties at 1B.
This is not a great system, although if you count Ryan and Finley (who passed their rookie limits last season) it looks much better. IF Xander Bogaerts and closer Bryan Harvey are probably the highest ceiling prospects, followed by IF Marcus Semien, professional hitter Babe Herman, and OFs Dwayne Murphy, Brian Nimmo, and Billy Hamilton.
Of those, only Bogaerts is doing well.
Veteran help is available at AAA in the form of OF Elmer Valo, Stearns, 1Bs Wally Joyner and Jack Hannifin, and 3B Pedro Álvarez.
WHAT’S NEEDED
The offense has to improve faster than the offense reverts to the mean.
Storylines to Watch
Key Questions from Spring Training
Who is going to fill out the rotation and the bullpen? This has been resoundingly answered so far, with the pitching staff performing as well as any in the league.
Will anyone step up at C? Not yet, no. We’ll see if Stearns, who will replace Torborg, improves the situation here.
FEATURED SERIES
The Angels head to Memphis for 4 games to start the week; we’ll follow those games as it will give us a chance to see the bulk of their rotation.
Projected Starters
Los Angeles starter listed first.
Brett Anderson (3-2, 4.60) @ Jon Lester (2-1, 5.53) Tom Seaver (3-2, 3.88) @ Bill Doak (3-3, 4.53) Gerrit Cole (1-4, 5.37) @ Len Barker (1-6, 4.63) Dwight Gooden (4-3, 2.60) @ Stubby Overmire (2-4, 4.9-2)
Game One
This is what happens when your bullpen is toast. With Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodríguez needing rest, the Angels were forced to turn to Noah Lowry in a high leverage situation … and it did not go well.
Brett Anderson was strong over 6 plus innings, and the Angels held a 7-3 lead heading into the bottom of the 8th. But Roy Patterson and Lowry collapsed, giving up 5 runs, including a go-ahead 3 run shot by Manny Ramírez as Memphis claimed a come from behind victory.
LAA 7 (Lowry 2-1, 3 B Sv) @ MEM 8 (Miller 3-; Papelbon 4 Sv) HRs: LAA – Trout (9), Daniels (6); MEM – Williams (9), Smith (11), Ramírez (9). Box Score
Game Two
More of the same. Los Angeles roared out of the gate, with back-to-back homeruns to lead off the game from Don Buford and Kal Daniels. Bobby Grich added a 2 run shot later in the inning, and the Angels were up 4-0. They touched Bill Doak for another run, leading 5-0 after 3.5.
And then Tom Seaver began to struggle, giving up homeruns to Manny Ramírez in consecutive innings, tying up the ballgame at 5. After Ross Reynolds was forced from the game with a forearm issue, David Ortíz greeted Roy Patterson with a solo shot to give the Red Sox a 6-5 lead.
Bobby Grich hit his second of the game, taking Jonathan Papelbon deep in the 9th to tie it, but the Angels bullpen wasn’t up to the task, eventually surrendering a bases loaded single to Mookie Betts for the walkoff win for Memphis.
LAA 6 (Patterson 1-1) @ MEM 7 (Papelbon 2-2, 3 B Sv; Bell 3 H; Miller 4 H) HRs: LAA – Daniels (7), Buford (9), Grich 2 (12); MEM – Ramírez 2 (11), Ortíz (6). Box Score
The game was costly for each team, as Memphis’ Dobie Moore also left with an injury. Reynolds will miss about a week, landing him on the DL, with the Angels recalling Scott Rice from AAA. Rice has a shot at taking Noah Lowry‘s role as the pen lefty, depending on how his initial WBL outings go.
Moore’s status is still unknown.
Game Three
Don Buford led off the game with a homerun for the second consecutive game, staking Gerrit Cole to an early 1-0 lead. Cole wasn’t up for the task, giving up 1 in the bottom of the first and a whopping 6 in the 2nd before being chased from the game by a Mookie Betts blast in the 4th.
The Angels offense did well against Len Barker, touching him for 6 runs in 6 innings, and staying close enough that a George Wright homerun (!) in the 8th could make it a 1 run game, 11-10 Memphis. They put two runners on base against Heath Bell in the 9th, but were unable to break through, and the Red Sox take the first 3 games of the series.
Wade Boggs had 3 doubles for Memphis and scored 4 times.
LAA 10 (Cole 1-5) @ MEM 11 (Barker 2-6; Callahan 1 H; Bell 2 Sv) HRs: LAA – Buford (10), Wright (3); MEM – Ramírez (12), Betts (5). Box Score
Angels 3B Doug Rader had to leave the game, but isn’t likely to require a trip to the DL. There was great news for Memphis as well, as Dobie Moore will only miss about a day with his bruised shin.
Game Four
Don Buford didn’t lead off this one with a homer: he waited until the 5th inning to launch a 3 run shot, putting the Angels up, 3-2. Steve Garvey and Ichiro Suzuki added 2 RBIs each in the 6th, increasing the lead to 7-2.
Doc Gooden had given up a 2-run shot in the bottom of the 1st to David Ortíz, but had shut Memphis down after that, lasting 7 innings in a very strong outing. Scott Rice relieved Gooden for his WBL debut … and it did not go well, with Rice giving up 3 runs, allowing the Red Sox to close the gap to 9-5.
With a 4 run lead, the Angels turned to Francisco Rodríguez … who promptly loaded the bases to start the bottom of the 9th. A walk to Ted Williams made it 9-6, and brought in Los Angeles’ closer, Joe Nathan. Nathan whiffed two … and then gave up a walkoff grand slam homerun to Billy Bryan, giving the Red Sox the series sweep.
Buford–who had a great series–finished the game with 5 RBIs, giving him 3 homers and 7 RBIs over the 4 games.
LAA 9 (Nathan 3-2, 1 B Sv) @ MEM 10 (Callahan 1-1) HRs: LAA – Buford (11); MEM – Ortíz (7), Bryan (4). Box Score
What a miserable series … 4 winnable games, 4 collapses from the Angels’ bullpen, 4 different ways to steal defeat from the jars of victory leading to 4 straight 1 run losses.
There is growing optimism in Memphis, even though it is, based on last year’s overall performance, totally unwarranted. But a strong end to the season, landing the best FA arm on the market in Shane Bieber, and a potentially high-impact draft class leaves the Red Sox with dreams of the postseason in their heads.
Best Case
Bieber joins Stubby Overmire, Dean Chance, and Bill Doak to form a solid rotation with the bullpen solidifying behind Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon while the trio of Mookie Betts, Manny Ramírez, and Sammy Sosa all reach their potential. Dobie Moore unseating Vern Stephens at SS would help, too.
Worst Case
Overmire’s finishing the year as runner-up in the ERA race proves a mirage, and the pitching remains too large of an obstacle for the offense to overcome, especially when Betts and Ramírez remain tantalizingly mediocre.
Key Questions
Who is going to fill out the rotation and the bullpen?
Memphis’ scouts are agog over Dobie Moore, but scouts don’t play the game: is Moore the real thing and, if so, what happens to Vern Stephens?
Sosa was moved out, essentially for Gabby Hartnett, putting more pressure on the OF the step up.
Trade Bait
There is, potentially, OF and SS talent to spare, making the Red Sox one of the few teams potentially active on the Spring Training trading block.
Roster Evaluation
POS
Elite
Strong
Solid
Meh
Weak
Unknown
C
Bryan
Hartnett
1B
White
Ortiz
2B
Ritchey
3B
Boggs
Shaw
SS
Stephens
Moore
LF/ RF
Williams
Ramírez Betts
Johnson
CF
Smith
SP
Chance Overmire
Barker Doak
Lester
Bieber
End
Bell
Papelbon
RP
Bush Miller Roach Watt
New Addition | Injured
There is so much upside here. But the mix of poor historical performance and a whopping nine unknown players make it pretty much a crapshoot.
Talent Ratings
WBL
Minors
Raw Power
OF Manny Ramírez
OF Hack Wilson
Batting Eye
OF Ted Williams
C Charlie Bennett
Contact
3B Wade Boggs
OF Lefty O’Doul
Running Speed
CF Reggie Smith
2B Jim Canavan
Base Stealing
3B Travis Shaw
OF Sam Mertes
IF Defense
3B Travis Shaw
IF Gary Gaetti
OF Defense
OF Mookie Betts
OF Dwight Evans
Stuff
RP Skel Roach
P Bill Hogg
Control
P Stubby Overmire
P Dale Mohorcic
Velocity
RP Heath Bell
P Joba Chamberlain
Best In The Minors
Rank
Age
POS
Name
1 (18)
20
IF
Dobie Moore
2 (33)
23
P
Shane Bieber
3 (49)
23
P
Sadie McMahon
4 (77)
22
IF
Candy Jim Taylor
5 (94)
21
P
Jim Kaat
6 (107)
22
P
Andrew Miller
7 (129)
20
U
Carl Yastrzemski
8 (132)
20
1B
Bill Buckner
9 (136)
21
1B
Joe Cunningham
10 (143)
22
P
Bill Hogg
Others: OFs Alex Johnson, Dwight Evans; P Dick Drago.
A lot of talent, but it’s unclear how much of it can make a WBL impact. We’ll find out a lot this year, as Moore, Bieber, and Miller are all breaking camp with the Red Sox.
Also, WTF? The Red Sox let Chino Smith go for some reason, seeing him immediately snapped up by Baltimore.
Most
Least
Age
1B Joe Cronin, 37 P Russ Springer, 37
P Mickey McDermott, 16
Height
P Mike Witt, 6’7″
IF Candy Jim Taylor, 5’5″
OPS
IF Wayne Belardi, 1.207 (—)
IF Bud Harrelson, .505 (—)
HR
IF Wayne Belardi, 75 (—)
IF Candy Jim Taylor, 1 (AAA/AA) OF Jack McAleese, 1 (—) IF Bud Harrelson, 1 (—)
SB
CF Reggie Smith, 20 (WBL)
Many with 0
WAR
OF Joe Kelley, 4.8 (AAA/AA)
IF Bud Harrelson, -2.6 (—)
W
Joe Kelly, 13 (WBL/AAA) Jim McAndrew, 13 (—) Mike Witt, 13 (—)
Turk Farrell, 4 (WBL/AAA) Len Barker, 4 (WBL/AAA)
SV
Jonathan Papelbon, 18 (WBL)
ERA
Jameson Taillon, 2.81 (—)
Sadie McMahon, 7.12 (WBL/AAA/AA)
WAR
Jameson Taillon, 5.5 (—)
Carl Mays, -1.4 (—)
Stats are across all levels. 200 PA / 75 IP min. Non WBL leagues indicated by —.
Half the staff is unknown, and while the OF is far too crowded, both C and the IF are still to be settled.
First round pick Carl Yastrzemski and fourth round pick Bill Lee have an outside shot at making the squad, although Yastrzemski is thoroughly blocked at both LF and 1B.
First Cuts
Not a lot clarified on the mound. Mike Witt and Turk Farrell were sent down, with Eddie Cicotte‘s struggles moving him close to the edge as well. The rest remains complicated: Len Barker and Sadie McMahon have pitched better than their numbers would indicate, while prize FA acquistion Shane Bieber, Jon Lester, and David Bush are struggling a bit.
C Charlie Bennett was sent down, and only Kurt Suzuki‘s arm prevented him from joining Bennett in the minors. Joe Cunningham and David Ortiz have torn the cover off the ball, maintaining quite a crowd at 1B where only George Scott heads off to minor league camp.
The Red Sox had hoped that DJ LeMahieu or Dustin Pedroia would provide some competition at 2B, instead each were sent down after woeful early performances, along with SS Francisco Lindor.
And that brings us to Carl Yastrzemski, who has simply exploded onto the scene. It’s not clear where the 20 year old could fit in Memphis’ lineup, but if he keeps hitting like this, they’ll find a spot for him. Eddie Rosario, Tom Brown, and Lefty O’Doul were optioned to the minors.
These moves leave Memphis still needing to do a lot of work, primarily on the mound and in the outfield, positions that are crowded enough the Red Sox could be challenged in finding enough opportunities for the talent to be accurately evaluated.
Second Cuts
Some of Memphis’ best performers on the mound from last season (Heath Bell, Len Barker, and Bill Doak and, in a slightly lesser key, Tim Wakefield) have struggled mightily this Spring, but will be given some more time to work out the kinks. Tommy de la Cruz, Eddie Cicotte, Bill Hogg, and Sadie McMahon weren’t so lucky, with all four being sent to the minors.
Kurt Suzuki‘s defense again keeps him in camp, at least temporarily.
The IF remains a mess: Iván De Jesús, Wade Boggs and Bill White are all struggling and players considered long shots coming into camp–David Ortiz and Dobie Moore especially–have been jaw-droppingly good.
The situation is the same in the OF, where Yastrzemski and Alex Johnson are tearing the cover off the ball and Mookie Betts, Ted Williams, and David Justice are all mired in the muck of sub .500 OPS’. Look for both of these logjams to break over the next week.
Third Cuts
P remains a conundrum compounded by Bill Doak and Jon Lester (both stalwarts last season) struggling. For all his versatility, Tim Wakefield just can’t seem to get a feel for his knuckleball, and heads to AAA along with Derek Lowe.
Kurt Suzuki is fantastic defensively behind the plate, but his offense is just too weak for the WBL at this point. He joins Iván De Jesús, Mike Greenwell, Andrew Benintendi, Dwight Evans, and Candy Jim Taylor at AAA.
That sounds like a lot, but there are still a lot of roster questions to figure out. The odds are only one of Joe Cronin, Joe Cunningham, and Travis Shaw can make the roster, and it’s not clear if there is space for all three of Nomar Garciaparra, Dobie Moore, and Vern Stephens. Given that Bill White and Wade Boggs are entrenched as starters on the corners (with David Ortiz pushing White for time), there is a lot of pressure in the middle infield.
Even with the demotions of Joe Kelley and Hack Wilson, the Red Sox have eight OFers in camp, with established contributors Ted Williams (!), David Justice, and Mookie Betts all struggling to put the bat on the ball. This felt crowded even before camp started, with Manny Ramírez, Reggie Smith, Sammy Sosa, Williams, and Betts all but assured of spots. Add to that the stellar debuts from Carl Yastrzemski and Alex Johnson, and it’s all a bit of a mess.
Final Cuts
The acquisition of Gabby Hartnett leaves the C position pretty crowded, especially given Dobie Moore can fill in behind the plate in a pinch. As such, Bob Brenly heads to the minors despite a decent showing last season. He was joined by recent acquisition Rollie Fingers who needs another year of development at least.
The C position was finalized with Dave Engle‘s demotion, as Billy Bryan holds on to his roster spot behind Hartnett.
Moore’s presence also allows the Red Sox to keep only 1 of Claude Ritchey and Wayne Causey. Ritchey performed better both last season and in the Spring, so Causey finds himself on his way to AAA.
Young Jim Kaat impressed during the Spring, but will start the year at AAA, as will veteran IF Nomar Garciaparra, who again showed too little to warrant a WBL roster spot.
Despite showing some promise–certainly more than he showed in a disastrous 2000–Nixey Callahan will start the year at AAA, as will Jameson Taillon. 1B was always going to be crowded, when David Ortiz hit 6 homeruns during the Spring, it got ridiculous. That earned Ortiz a roster spot, with Joe Cronin and Joe Cunningham both heading to AAA, and Travis Shaw sticking with the Red Sox due to his ability to backup Wade Boggs at 3B.
And then there was one cut left to make.
The choices were Bill Doak (excellent last year, horrendous this Spring), Alex Johnson (a total unknown tearing the cover off the ball this Spring), or Carl Yastrzemski (a strong Spring, but no real place to get regular playing time). Memphis decided to get Yaz some regular at bats, making him the final cut of the Spring.
71 - 83, .461 pct.
5th in Bill James Division, 18 games behind.
Overall
Memphis had a rough year: the pitching was never very good, and there were a ton of disappointments on the offensive side as well. If they can find some pitching, however, there may be no team in the league better positioned for a bounce back, and they ended the year on a 17-4 record, perhaps indicating better times are coming.
What Went Right
There were some things. OF Reggie Smith and Ted Williams look like elite players, despite Williams’ late season slide. Smith is 23, Williams 21, so that should lock up 2 of the Red Sox’s OF slots for a while.
Billy Bryan hit very well in limited action, and both Bill White and Wade Boggs looked solid as well.
Sammy Sosa did very well after being obtained in a mid-season trade, posting a SLG of .551 with Memphis.
Stubby Overmire was a pleasant surprise after arriving from Houston, finishing 3rd in the WBL in ERA. He, Dean Chance and, when healthy, Bill Doak looked solid as starters and Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell were each fantastic in the bullpen.
ALL STARS
RP Craig Kimbrel; OF Reggie Smith; OF Ted Williams
What Went Wrong
Neither Mookie Betts nor Manny Ramírez did enough, both being surpassed by Sosa on the depth chart (and with even more OF talent in the minors, it’s not clear if their futures lie with Memphis).
The MI was a mess all year, although Claude Ritchey did well enough at the end of the season to lay a claim for next year. Francisco Lindor and Dustin Pedroia were especially disappointing, leaving the Red Sox far too reliant on Iván De Jesús throughout the season (a fine utility part, not a starter).
The rest of the starting staff was a mess, either far too inconsistent (Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield) or just plain bad (Nixey Callahan especially).
Trade Evaluations
March
None
June
P Roger Clemens to Houston for OF Hack Wilson, P Jim Kaat, 2B DJ LeMahieu, P Stubby Overmire & 5th Round Pick {Nathan Eovaldi}
Clemens was struggling mightily in Memphis, and this is a nice haul of talent in return.
P Joe Beggs to Baltimore for P Willie Sudhoff, OF Alex Johnson & 4th Round Pick {Bill Lee}
Beggs’ age (33) makes this OK, I guess.
OF Tony Conigliaro, OF Fred Lynn & 2nd Round Pick to House of David for OF Sammy Sosa & 5th Round Pick
Seemed quite questionable at the time, but Sosa’s performance since has made this look like a win for the Red Sox.
July
C Jim Pagliaroni & 4th Round Pick to Birmingham for IF Woody English & 3B Candy Jim Taylor
Taylor is the best player in the deal, which usually would mean Memphis wins this one.
Looking Forward
SP
There is just so little talent here long term. Derek Lowe? I guess. A real weakness.
RP
Not bad. Papelbon and Bell for now, along with help from Joe Kelly and the continued effectiveness of Tim Wakefield as a swingman.
C
An area of need, especially if Billy Bryan stumbles. Jason Varitek has some promise and Kurt Suzuki showed outstanding defensive potential in a short trial (although he couldn’t hit a lick).
1B
Bill White did fine here, but he’s really just warming the spot for prospect David Ortiz.
2B
The Red Sox would love to see either DJ LeMahieu or Dustin Pedroia make this position theirs long term.
3B
Wade Boggs should be good here for a long time, although room will eventually need to be made for Candy Jim Taylor.
SS
Vern Stephens was supposed to be the answer, and if not Stephens, Francisco Lindor. Neither showed much, so there is some concern here.
LF
Ted Williams for at least a decade.
CF
Reggie Smith has this locked down, although Hack Wilson looks intriguing down the road.
RF
OK, this just gets messy. Somehow, between RF and DH, the Red Sox need to find playing time for Sammy Sosa, Mookie Betts, and Manny Ramírez, with Dwight Evans coming right behind them.
The Rookie Draft
Rounds 1-4
The most confounding spot in the draft so far is Memphis at #6. The Red Sox don’t have a 2nd round pick, and Carl Yastrzemski is unlikely to be around by the 3rd round. But the team is so deep at 1B/OF right now … there are two options here: take Yaz and make it tomorrow’s problem, capitalizing on his franchise status or take one of the young pitchers who will help them sooner, likely either Tom Glavine or Zack Greinke.
At the end of the day, the team decided to draft on talent over need, selecting Yastremski.
The Red Sox were thrilled that Dobie Moore was still around in the 3rd round, and hope the 25 year old can step right into the starting role at SS.
They took Bill Lee with the final pick of the 4th round.
Rounds 5-8
While more arms are never a bad thing, the Red Sox system is fairly sparse in 1B and OFers. So their 5th round picks are 1B Joe Cunningham, P Nathan Eovaldi, and P Dick Drago. With Eovaldi and Drago being franchise picks, it’s not clear what will compel Memphis to use its remaining exceptions.
One was spent on OF George Case in the 6th round, but franchise pitcher Mickey McDermott was the best arm available in the 7th round. While it’s not clear where he’ll actually play, it is obvious that Charlie Smith can hit, making him a potential steal in the 8th round with their final franchise exception.
Rounds 9-12
P Allen Russell; OF Troy O’Leary; P Dale Mohorcic; and P Connor Seabold.