The first House of David preview, 3 years ago, said there was a lot of talent here and the club was a year or 2 away. That is still, more or less, the pitch for the South Side travellers.
The bats are not (and never have been) the problem. Ernie Banks hit 59 home runs from shortstop last year, Ryne Sandberg hit 42 more at 33, and Anthony Rizzo claimed first base with a 287/391/594 season that was the most complete offensive year on the club. Behind them the org has bats stacked in the places bats are easiest to find — 4 first basemen on the roster, 2 catchers, and a Triple-A club that opens the season with Tony Conigliaro (7 homers in 24 WBL games last September), Jim Edmonds and Mark Grace (a 1.008 OPS) on it, because there is nowhere to put them.
The problem is the mound, and it has been for a year. Jack Taylor, who was an ace in 2000, gave back 192 innings of 5.90 ball. Bob Rush won a Gold Glove and posted a 5.28. Fergie Jenkins struck out 131 in 132 innings and finished with a 6.55. Nobody was good except a 22-year-old nobody expected (Kyle Peterson, more below).
So the season leans on Brett Anderson, 23 and acquired from Los Angeles in March for Richie Hebner — 189 innings, 172 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP for the Angels last year, and the closest thing to a front-line arm this org has had since Taylor. He doesn’t have to be an ace here, he just has to offer some stability to a beleaguered, revolving door of a rotation.
2001 Revisited
We asked for one thing: a repeat of last year’s playoff contention, at a minimum. The House of David went 78-84 and finished 4th, 7 games out, which is 5 games worse than the year before.
Ouch.
The odd part is how thoroughly both halves of the forecast missed. The best case had 4 clauses — repeat years from Taylor and Rush, a healthy Pete Browning, Elrod Hendricks not backsliding, the outfield sorting itself out — and 4 of 4 came up empty. Browning spent more time on the DL than on the field (again). Hendricks won a Gold Glove (the bleachers cheer!) and hit 195/291/416 (the bleachers fall silent, reluctant as they are to boo the hometown heroes). The outfield is no more settled today than it was then.
Meanwhile the worst case named Hebner, Ron Santo and Banks as the marginal men who might not step forward, and warned that Rizzo would regress. Banks put up a .968 OPS with 126 RBIs and won the organizational MVP. Hebner slashed 284/373/594 and pushed his way into more playing time all season. Rizzo broke out.
Where it did come true was the arm the preview never mentioned. Peterson went 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP across 17 starts and took the organizational Pitcher of the Year — the one thing that went right on a staff where everything else went wrong.
And there was Sammy Sosa, traded away in a slump in 2000 and bought back a year later off a 144-plate-appearance hot streak at Memphis. He hit 195/240/478 with 41 homers, walked almost never, and was worth nearly 2 wins below replacement. 41 homeruns (the bleachers cheer!). A negative WAR (the bleachers shrug and reach for their beer). Our own review of the deal put it more concisely: this feels like being robbed.
Key Changes
In: Brett Anderson (LAA); Dellin Betances (FA) Out: Richie Hebner (LAA); Billy Herman (FA); CC Sabathia (MCG)
Opening Day Rookies:None
Best Case for 2002
Anderson is what his strikeout rate says he is, Taylor remembers 2000, and Peterson holds. Behind them Rick Reuschel keeps being the most valuable arm on the staff — he led all House of David pitchers in WAR last year out of a swing role — and Jenkins, who owns the best raw stuff in the organization, finally delivers on it.
The lineup does what it already does, with health. Browning plays 140 games, George Gore and his .389 on-base get a full season instead of half of one, Santo takes the step a 22-year-old with 29 homers is entitled to, and one of the Triple-A bats forces the issue.
In a weak division, that’s enough. Or, could be enough.
Worst Case for 2002
Peterson’s rookie year came with 63 strikeouts in 107 innings, which is the profile that tends to regress. Anderson’s move doesn’t take. Taylor is what he was last year rather than what he was in 2000, and the rotation is a committee with nobody up front for a 2nd straight season.
And the roster’s thin construction hurts. Craig Reynolds is going to get a lot of PA, backing up both Sandberg and Banks, and he doesn’t look like a WBL bat. If Banks slides, Sandberg ages, and Sosa keeps being a muscled bundle of empty power, the bombs will keep landing in the street behind the bleachers, and the club will keep losing 8-5.
Key Questions
Where does the first arm come from? This staff has no settled answer to who starts opening day and why. Taylor has the pedigree and a 5.90; Peterson has the results and a strikeout rate that argues with them; Anderson has the peripherals and a 4.34 ERA; Jenkins has, by some distance, the best raw arm in the org and a track record that has never once matched it.
Does anybody here get on base? Banks reached at .314, Sosa at .240, Hendricks at .291, Santo at .311. Frank Chance ran 43 steals out of a .322 on-base built on a .214 average, which is its own kind of achievement. The 2 genuinely patient bats — Rizzo at .391 and Gore at .389 — are the least celebrated men in the lineup, which tells you something about a fanbase that came for the 450-foot shot and is not going to be talked out of it.
What happens if a middle infielder goes down? Sandberg at 33 and Banks at 26 are the 2 best players on the team and they play the 2 positions with nothing behind them. Heliodoro Hidalgo, the 7th-ranked prospect in baseball, is a year away at Triple-A. This is the one hole on the roster that cannot be covered from what’s already in the building.
Roster Evaluation
Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.
Pos
Players
C
Hendricks D · Chance
1B
Rizzo B · Anson
2B
Sandberg A
SS
Banks S · Reynolds
3B
Santo C
LF
Stone C
CF
Gore C · Browning
RF
Sosa F
DH
McGwire · Beckwith
SP
Taylor D · Anderson B · Peterson B · Reuschel D · Rush D · Jenkins · Clinton (IL)
RP
Spooner B · Bauta D · Betances · Key · Shaw · Downs
John Beckwith is 20 and broke camp on a WBL roster having hit 4 home runs in a full Double-A season — the ceiling is enormous and the track record is a rumor. And Frank Chance is a catcher who stole 43 bases, which is not a sentence that gets written often; he is also the club’s answer against left-handed pitching and its leadoff man, at a position where the incumbent just won a Gold Glove.
Talent Ratings
WBL
Minors
Raw Power
1B John Beckwith
SP Jocko Flynn
Batting Eye
1B Mark McGwire
RF Olaf Henriksen
Contact
CF Pete Browning
1B Mark Grace
Running Speed
RF Sammy Sosa
RF Will Venable
Base Stealing
CF Pete Browning
SP George Zettlein; 2B Bingo DeMoss
IF Defense
2B Ryne Sandberg
3B Dave Malarcher; 2B Heliodoro Hidalgo
OF Defense
CF George Gore; RF Sammy Sosa
LF Sam Fuld
Stuff
RP Dellin Betances
SP Kerry Wood
Control
SP Jack W. Taylor
RP Tom Dukes; SP George Zettlein
Velocity
RP Dellin Betances
SP Kerry Wood
Best In The Minors
Rank
Age
Pos
Name
1 (7)
20
2B
Heliodoro Hidalgo
2 (15)
21
SP
Jocko Flynn
3 (37)
24
CF
Danny Green
4 (43)
21
2B
Bingo DeMoss
5 (98)
21
LF
Cody Bellinger
Others: P Larry Dierker, 1B Mark Grace, P Jon Matlack, P Joe Nuxhall.
Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Cap Anson (12).
A year ago this list was 10 deep and led by Frank Grant, the 2nd-ranked prospect in baseball — a second baseman, traded to San Francisco in July for John Beckwith. Karl Spooner and Peterson graduated onto the staff, Anson onto the roster, and Dave Malarcher slid off the board entirely. What replaced them is, pointedly, middle infield: Hidalgo came from Kansas City in the Lee Smith deadline sale and ranks 7th in all of baseball, with Bingo DeMoss drafted to fill the need (it’s not clear where Hidalgo ends up defensively).
Underneath, the system is teenage arms and one very stuck bat. Jon Matlack is 19; Joe Nuxhall is 17 and Larry Dierker 19. And Mark Grace put up a 1.008 OPS at Triple-A at 28, but seems destined to a AAAA label or a change of scenery.
Superlatives
Most
Least
Age
Skeeter Barnes, 35
Joe Nuxhall, 17
Height
Dellin Betances, 6’7″
Bunny Downs, 5’5″
OPS
Mark Grace, 1.008 (AAA)
Darren Daulton, .437 (A)
HR
Ernie Banks, 59
José Uribe, 1 (AA)
SB
Frank Chance, 43
–
WAR (bat)
Ryne Sandberg, 3.7
Sammy Sosa, −1.9
W
Kyle Peterson, 15
–
SV
Ad Gumbert, 10 (AA)
–
ERA
Larry Dierker, 1.78 (A)
Larry Jackson, 6.61
WAR (pit)
Kyle Peterson, 4.9
Larry Jackson, 0.2
Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.
78 - 84, .481 pct.
4th in Marvin Miller Division, 7 GB
Overall
The House of David are just not very good. Last year, they edged into the playoffs, this year, they were a bit off that pace, but really there wasn’t a ton of difference. Which means there wasn’t much improvement.
It’s a team with some decent offensive pieces and some pitching potential, but also with enough obvious holes that it’s hard to see quite where the path to contention may lead. There are some cornerstones: offensively, Ernie Banks entered the superstar realm this year, Ryne Sandberg shows no signs of slowing down, Anthony Rizzo looks like the real deal, and Tony Conigliaro had one of the best debuts possible for a September callup.
Note the lack of discussion of pitchers …
What Went Right
Ernie Banks went very, very right: a .968 OPS, 59 homers, and 126 RBIs from SS puts Banks on the fringes of the MVP conversation. The House of David sport a brilliant keystone combination, with Banks and Ryne Sandberg. At 33, Sandberg continues to be one of the best 2B in the WBL, slashing 292/351/592 with solid defense.
Rizzo was a bit of a surprise, showing a rare mix of patience and power and laying claim to the 1B job, which was pretty much up in the air.
Richie Hebner slashed 284/373/594, demanding more and more playing time as the season progressed.
One of 2 notable reclamation projects, Mark McGwire, while not quite putting it all together, did impress. His slash line reveals a lot: 205/315/608 shows his patience, his world-class power, and his inability to do much else. Still, 22 homeruns in 56 games will turn some heads.
Kyle Peterson made 17 starts, going 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. His success came out of nowhere, but those are excellent numbers, and he’ll be expected to hold down a rotation spot next season.
Karl Spooner was quite effective from the pen, proving very hard to hit and compensating for marginal control with a high strikeout rate.
Rick Reuschel was steady all season, and while he may not be more than a rotation starter over time, the dependability means a lot for an otherwise beleaguered rotation.
ALL STARSErnie BanksLee Smith(Subsequently traded)
MAJOR AWARDSErnie Banks, All NL First Team, NL Silver Slugger SS
Elrod Hendricks, NL Gold Glove C
Bob Rush, NL Gold Glove P
Karl Spooner, All NL Rookie Team
RECOGNITIONSErnie Banks, NL 25 & Under Team
Richie Hebner, NL 23 & Under Team
Kyle Peterson, All NL Rookie 2nd Team
Craig Reynolds, All NL Rookie 2nd Team
Ryne Sandberg, ALL NL Third Team; NL Over 30 Team
Ron Santo, NL 21 & Under Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDSErnie Banks, MVP
Kyle Peterson, Pitcher of the Year
Ryne Sandberg, Heart & Soul
Richie Hebner, Fan Favorite
Frank Dwyer, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Tony Conigliaro, Minor League Player of the Year
What Went Wrong
Jack Taylor got a lot of the blame for the House of David’s showing this year, but much of that was unfair. Yes, Taylor’s performance was a far cry from his dominant year 1, but (a) he recovered a bit as the season wore on and (b) 200 innings and a 12-10 record still holds some value. The real issue is that nobody other than Peterson was actually good, with Ferguson Jenkins, CC Sabathia, and Bob Rush all struggling (Rush was the best of this trio, Sabathia the worst).
Bruce Sutter couldn’t hold on to a WBL slot, ending the season in the minors after a disastrous 25 appearances resulting in an ERA over 8.00. As problematically, especially after Lee Smith‘s departure, nobody (other than Spooner) had provided any stability from the bullpen.
Elrod Hendricks provided gold glove level defense, but nothing else, eventually falling into a platoon with Frank Chance who, despite his speed (he lead the team with 43 steals), performed even worse offensively than Hendricks. So C in general was pretty much a black hole.
Craig Reynolds, Billy Williams, and Cap Anson were all given a chance and none could muster an OPS over .700.
The other reclamation project, Sammy Sosa was just eternally frustrating. Sosa walloped 41 homers, but unlike McGwire, couldn’t take a walk, leaging him with only power and some speed / defense on offer.
Once more, Pete Browning spent more time on the DL than on the field, but whereas he was incandescent last year when healthy, this year, he was merely adequate.
Transactions
March
IF Charlie Gehringer & 3rd Round Pick to DET for P Claude Osteen & 1st Round Pick
A clear win: Gehringer was solid for Detroit, but blocked here, and the 1st rounder has quite a bit of value.
C Gabby Hartnett, P Rollie Fingers & 4th Round Pick to MEM for OF Sammy Sosa.
Ugh. Sosa’s return was much heralded, but given how bad the House of David’s catchers were, this feels like being robbed.
July
IF Frank Grant to SFS for IF John Beckwith & 3rd Round Pick.
Interesting, and a deal that won’t be able to be judged for a few years. Grant was either blocked by Sandberg or his successor, but had little immediate value for the House of David.
IF Luis Aparicio, IF Jung Ho Kang, & 7th Round Pick to PHI for P Larry Jackson.
Jackson is solid and Kang looks to be the quintessential AAAA player, so this seems fine.
IF Joe Harris & P Lee Smith to KCM for OF Heliodoro Hidalgo, P Jimmy Key, & 3rd Round Pick.
A clear sign the House of David were giving up on the season. Given that, it seems fine–both Harris and Smith are well past 30.
August
None–all useful pieces had, I guess, already been moved.
Positional Overview
C
Who knows? Elrod Hendricks‘ glove has some value, but he looked completely overmatched at the plate. None of the youngsters seem ready yet, but Cap Anson, Frank Chance, and Darren Daulton all look good–and even Beckwith has seen some time behind the plate.
A strong Spring Training from Anson could earn him a roster spot, but it looks most likely that, without a trade, they head into next season hoping that Hendricks and Chance just somehow get better.
1B
Even with Anthony Rizzo‘s performance, there are some questions here. Rizzo has earned his spot, but there is a lot of other talent at first base: McGwire, Richie Hebner, even Cap Anson and, especially, Mark Grace, who slashed 324/395/613, from the minors.
2B
At 33, Ryne Sandberg still has a few years in the tank; behind him, the best talent is probably Billy Herman, who has looked overmatched in the WBL so far. This is also a possible position for Heliodoro Hidalgo and Dave Malarcher, but they may end up elsewhere.
SS
At 25, we would assume this is Ernie Banks for quite some time.
Behind him, though, it’s not terribly clear. Malarcher could play here, but veteran Craig Reynolds feels like the more likely option, with both José Uribe and John Peters also available as defense-first options.
3B
As the season went on, Hebner played here a bit, but the future really looks to belong to 21 year old Ron Santo, although this is also the most likely position for Beckwith and Malarcher, but that is tomorrow’s problem.
LF/RF
These spots are pretty wide open, and I would expect strong Spring Training competition between Pete Browning, Sammy Sosa, George Stone, Tony Conigliaro, Billy Williams, Cy Williams, and Tip O’Neill. Of those, Stone has the inside track on the LF job, which probably pushes O’Neill to the minors once more.
Cy and Billy Williams and Conigliaro were the best performers this season, but Billy struggled mightily in September with the big league club, and Cy has yet to face WBL pitching.
CF
Another bit of a logjam, with George Gore, Jim Edmonds, and Pete Browning all being happiest at this position. Gore and Edmonds are very, very similar, with Gore having produced just a bit more season over season, but if Browning can get back to his Year One levels, he’s the starter here.
At 30, Jerry Mumphrey keeps arguing for an opportunity, but he’s probably forced out once more.
The future looks good here, with either Hidalgo or Cody Bellinger likely to emerge as the most likely candidate to take over in a few years.
DH
Look for a mixture of McGwire, Hebner, and whoever loses the OF competition to get the at bats here.
SP
It’s a mess of question marks right now.
Can Taylor bounce back? Is Kyle Peterson for real? Can Jim Clinton, Bob Shaw, or, most likely, Rick Reuschel prove to be a reliable third starter?
Say Taylor and Peterson are set in the rotation, the Spring will see a strong competition between the others, as well as Bob Rush, Larry Jackson, Fergie Jenkins, Jimmy Key, and, depending on his recovery from injury, Kerry Wood.
There is some good talent in the system, led by teenagers Larry Dierker and Joe Nuxhall (still only 17).
RP
The only set spots are Karl Spooner and Ed Bauta, so there should be some competition here, starting with Bruce Sutter who, for the 3rd year running, will be given a shot at becoming the closer.
Beyond that, Scott Downs will get some time, and the team is open to Ad Brennan, Tom Dukes, Brian Holman, or George Gilpatrick showing they can handle life in the WBL.
A big draft for the House of David, with 6 picks in the first 3 rounds. There are a few WBL ready arms, aside from that, the lower end of the farm system could just be upgraded across the board.
In this post, we’ll slowly carve people off those lists as we get younger, beginning with the under 25’s. As we get younger, future potential will begin to be more of a thing.
A full lineup, with DH, plus 3 starters and 3 relievers for each. We’ll start by relisting the overall selections, then new entries for each group will be bolded.
#WBL Teams of the Year
Pos
American League
National League
C
Ed Bailey (36, DET/CLE)
Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1B
Jim Thome (28, MCG)
Paul Konerko (34, CAG/BBB)
2B
Eddie Collins (28, CAG)
Roberto Alomar (24, OTT)
SS
Arky Vaughan (27, CLE)
Ernie Banks (25, HOD)
3B
Evan Longoria (24, CLE)
Ron Cey (27, BRK)
LF
Babe Ruth (25, NYY)
Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CF
Turkey Stearnes (22, SFS)
Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RF
Mickey Mantle (22, NYY)
Aaron Judge (27, PHI)
DH
Ty Cobb (21, DET)
Willie Stargell (31, HOM)
SP
Lefty Grove (27, SFS) José Méndez (23, MCG) Jim Whitney (24, BBB/MCG)
Luis Padrón (22, IND) Toad Ramsey (23, HOU) A. Rube Foster (24, KCM)
RP
Ken Howell (24, SFS) Andrew Miller (23, MEM) Rod Beck (24, SFS)
Lee Smith (34, HOD/KCM) Eddie Guardado (26, KCM) Eric Gagne (27, BRK)
#WBL 25 & Under Teams
Pos
American League
National League
C
Mickey Cochrane (25, SFS)
Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1B
Hank Greenberg (24, DET)
Jeff Bagwell (24, HOU)
2B
Grant Johnson (25, HOU/NYY)
Roberto Alomar (24, OTT)
SS
Cal Ripken, Jr (23, BAL)
Ernie Banks (25, HOD)
3B
Evan Longoria (24, CLE)
Albert Pujols (22, KCM)
LF
Babe Ruth (25, NYY)
Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CF
Turkey Stearnes (22, SFS)
Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RF
Mickey Mantle (22, NYY)
Larry Walker (23, OTT)
DH
Ty Cobb (21, DET)
Rick Monday (24, OTT)
SP
José Méndez (23, MCG) Jim Whitney (24, BBB/MCG) Bump Hadley (23, SFS)
Luis Padrón (22, IND) Toad Ramsey (23, HOU) A. Rube Foster (24, KCM)
RP
Ken Howell (24, SFS) Andrew Miller (23, MEM) Rod Beck (24, SFS)
Terry Forster (22, BRK) Andrew Chafin (25, HOU) Fred Cambria (23, PHI)
#WBL 23 & Under Teams
Pos
American League
National League
C
Iván Rodríguez (21, MCG)
Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1B
Eddie Murray (22, BAL)
Rusty Staub (21, OTT)
2B
Frank Grant (22, HOD/SFS)
Joe Morgan (22, IND)
SS
Cal Ripken, Jr (23, BAL)
Carlos Correa (23, HOU)
3B
Jimmie Foxx (22, SFS)
Albert Pujols (22, KCM)
LF
Frank Robinson (22, BAL)
Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CF
Turkey Stearnes (22, SFS)
Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RF
Mickey Mantle (22, NYY)
Larry Walker (23, OTT)
DH
Ty Cobb (21, DET)
Richie Hebner (23, HOD)
SP
José Méndez (23, MCG) Bump Hadley (23, SFS) Brett Anderson (22, LAA)
Luis Padrón (22, IND) Toad Ramsey (23, HOU) Smokey Joe Wood (22, KCM)
RP
Andrew Miller (23, MEM) Goose Gossage (23, NYY) Julio Teheran (22, LAA)
Terry Forster (22, BRK) Fred Cambria (23, PHI) Ted Kennedy (22, PHI)
300 PA Minimums for batters, with 1 exception: Murray only had 145 PAs–1B in the AL just did not have a lot of youth.
#WBL 21 & Under
Pos
American League
National League
C
Iván Rodríguez (21, MCG)
Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1B
—
Rusty Staub (21, OTT)
2B
Martín Dihigo (19, MCG)
—
SS
Dobie Moore (20, MEM)
Judy Johnson (18, HOM)
3B
Freddie Lindstrom (20, CAG)
Ron Santo (21, HOD)
LF
Alejandro Oms (21, MCG)
Sherry Magee (21, PHI)
CF
Ken Griffey Jr (20, POR)
Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RF
Bryce Harper (20, BAL)
—
DH
Ty Cobb (21, DET)
—
SP
Walter Johnson (20, POR) Bob Feller (20, CLE) Joseíto Muñoz (20, POR)
Pete Conway (21, DET) Tom Williams (20, CAG) Billy Hoeft (19, DET)
Pete Donohue (21, NYG) Edward Nolan (19, IND) Vida Blue (21, HOU)
All praises to Ty Cobb, Josh Gibson, and Oscar Charleston for remaining on the list this far. The relievers dip into some rarely used arms, but of the rest, only Freddie Lindstrom was a late-season callup.
There really isn’t an all-teenager team: the only change from the teens above would be the addition of Chicago’s Cristóbal Torriente, perhaps the worst offensive player in the league this year in CF, but surprisingly effective in a few mound appearances.
One more, largely for fun
#WBL Over 30 Team
Pos
American League
National League
C
Ed Bailey (36, DET/CLE)
Jim Pagliaroni (32, MEM/BBB)
1B
Carlos Delgado (32, LAA)
Paul Konerko (34, CAG/BBB)
2B
Rogers Hornsby (34, NYY)
Ryne Sandberg (33, HOD)
SS
Bobby Wallace (34, BAL/DET)
Ozzie Smith (30, KCM)
3B
—
Jim Ray Hart (30, NYG)
LF
Oscar Gamble (32, DET)
Don Buford (32, LAA/NYG)
CF
—
Dave Henderson (33, IND)
RF
Kiki Cuyler (32, POR)
Albert Belle (32, BBB)
DH
Gavvy Cravath (36, BAL)
Joey Votto (32, IND)
SP
Andy Pettitte (33, NYY) Connie Johnson (34, BAL/DET) Charlie Root (31, DET)
Gaylord Perry (33, NYG) Eppa Rixey (31, IND) Cliff Lee (30, HOM)
RP
Jonathan Papelbon (31, MEM/MCG) Joe Nathan (31, LAA/SFS) Buddy Groom (37, BAL)
Lee Smith (34, HOD/KCM) Bob Howry (34, PHI) Josh Lindblom (31, HOM)
Only 3 names from the All-League Teams (Baily, Konerko, and Lee Smith), reflecting on just how young the league is. This is a very wide range from some very strong performers who are expected to keep it up for a while (those 3, Pettitte, Hornsby, some others) to folks like Dave Henderson and Kiki Cuyler, who are just barely hanging onto their roster spots.
We have a half-dozen A-Tier performances, but no really clear demarcation between those and the lower ranks, and then another half-dozen C-Tier performers struggling to prove they deserve their place in the league.
And, oh yeah, a couple superlative players and a few true duds.
Balance?
#S Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
BRK
Ron Cey
27
291/381/656
47 HR 105 RBI
.975 fPct 6.0 ZR
NL
KCM
Albert Pujols
22
316/375/645
44 HR 122 RBI
2.16 RF -5.3 ZR .950 dEff
These top 2 are clear, as is the likelihood that 3B isn’t Albert Pujols‘ final position.
Obviously, you would rather build around Pujols given his age, but Ron Cey really did have a season for the ages, a key cog in Brooklyn’s championship team.
#A Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
SFS
Jimmie Foxx
22
232/348/578
49 HR
NL
HOM
Richie Hebner
23
284/373/594
1.000 fPct
AL
CLE
Evan Longoria
24
287/351/578
36 HR 33 SB
NL
PHI
Scott Rolen
27
264/347/570
42 HR
1.055 dEff
AL
NYY
Mike Schmidt
29
239/350/564
45 HR
5.3 ZR
AL
MCG
Gary Sheffield
24
279/336/610
42 HR 27 SB
1.046 dEff
I don’t know what to do with any of these guys.
Evan Longoria is the biggest surprise here, moving from a struggle to find playing time to a legit power threat for a playoff team. Richie Hebner has the highest OPS, but played under 100 games, so he may even belong in the B Tier. And where is the line? There’s roughly a 50 point gap in OPS in this group, but are you really going to argue that Mike Schmidt isn’t an A Tier player?
Yah, me neither.
Jimmie Foxx played more at 3B than 1B, although perhaps he shifts across the diamond as time goes by.
#B Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
CAG
Dick Allen
23
253/342/562
41 HR
.940 fPct 2.13 RF
NL
BBB
Eddie Mathews
23
224/339/537
46 HR
.976 fPct
NL
HOM
Andy Van Slyke
24
289/366/528
101 R 64 SB
2.53 RF -4.2 ZR .944 dEff
All solid performers, each with a significant weakness: Dick Allen and Andy Van Slyke are weak defensively (that’s not quite fair to Van Slyke, who looks excellent in the OF, just not at the hot corner) and Eddie Mathews‘ inability to make contact works against his immense power.
#C Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
DET
Bob Bailey
29
253/345/506
30 HR
-3.8 ZR
AL
SFS
Sal Bando
26
247/355/503
NL
OTT
Adrían Beltré
26
242/289/545
39 HR
.974 fPct 2.56 RF
AL
MEM
Wade Boggs
26
287/351465
50 2B
AL
BAL
Manny Machado
24
241/289/520
44 HR
2.58 RF
NL
HOD
Ron Santo
21
244/311/518
.948 fPct 1.92 RF
Perhaps Adrían Beltré‘s defense should move him up (and perhaps Ron Santo‘s should move him down), but I’m good with this for now. Sal Bando isn’t a fulltime player, but his offense sure makes that argument. It’s hard to see a world where Beltré and Wade Boggs don’t improve, and at 21 Santo should, as well.
#D Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
POR
Buddy Bell
26
274/304/487
8.0 ZR 1.051 dEff
NL
IND
Chris Sabo
29
246/295/559
.937 fPct .953 dEff
This may be a little unfair to Buddy Bell, who is fantastic with the glove and improved as the season went on.
This may be a little unfair to Chris Sabo: that’s a lot of offense to relegate to the D Tier.
#F Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
HOU
George Brett
23
227/272/469
AL
LAA
Doug Rader
25
241/297/451
4.10 RF -19.8 ZR .917 dEff
Doug Rader was in the MVP conversation last year, now he truly belongs here. Ouch. George Brett, on the other hand, overcame a miserable start to the season, and seems very likely to move dramatically up this list.
#Rookies
Jimmie Foxx (A Tier) and Chris Sabo (D Tier).
#Fielding Notes
We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.
Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.
While theoretically based in Chicago, the House of David travel the backroads of the country with a portable stadium used for their home games. It’s a life.
On the field, it’s an example of how important upper end performance is to a team, and how painful it can be when it falls off.
While they are still within 2 games of the final NL Wild Card spot, it’s been a disappointing year for the House of David. The offense has been decent enough–and there are some clear positive indications for next year–but the pitching has been a struggle. Overall, a lot can be placed at the feet of Pete Browning and Jack Taylor, superstars last year who have failed to deliver this season.
THE OFFENSE
It’s a good offense. The BA and OBP are perhaps a little low, but there’s enough power to compensate, and ultimately, this ain’t the issue with the team.
#What’s Going Right
Ernie Banks has exploded into superstardom, with a 1.031 OPS and 117 RBI’s heading into September. Banks is 3rd in the league in homers with 54, and is clearly the dominant cog in the House of David offense, and perhaps the dominant offensive SS in the league.
Richie Hebner, not projected as a starter, also has an OPS over 1.000, and has edged into an everyday role, slashing 296/387/636 in just under 300 PAs.
The House of David as found 2 standout 1Bs this year in Anthony Rizzo and Mark McGwire. McGwire has played in just under 40 games, but is managing to maintain an OPS around .950 with a BA barely over .200: that’s a lot of walks and a lot of homeruns (17 of each in 140 PAs). Rizzo is slashing 276/389/581.
Ryne Sandberg continues to deliver at 2B, with 35 homers and a .930 OPS.
Ron Santo, has been mired in a slump recently, but still has an OPS around .850.
George Stone, George Gore, and Jim Edmonds all cluster around an .800 OPS in the OF, with Gore the most effective of the 3, taking most of the CF time from Edmonds.
Sammy Sosa has 37 homers, 2nd on the team.
#What’s Not Going Right
Pete Browning has been hurt, limiting his availability to about 75 games. More importantly, when healthy, last year’s superstar has struggled, with an OPS under .750.
Sammy Sosa‘s 37 homeruns are part of a .750 OPS as the immensely talented OF struggles constantly to put good wood on the ball.
Combine this with the above and the OF picture is just horribly confused. Gore, Stone, Edmonds, Sosa, and Browning (and the supernova debut of Tony Conigliaro) all result in none of the OF spots having a clear claimant.
Elrod Hendricks has been … not terrible, but not at all good. 22 homeruns is nice from a catcher, but a sub .700 OPS is not.
Frank Chance–given every, um, chance, to supplant Hendricks–has an even lower OPS, although he has shown a decent ability to get on base.
THE PITCHING
The House of David entered the season concerned about how they would fill out the rotation behind Jack Taylor. Now they’re worried about all of the staff, including Taylor. It’s not pretty.
#What’s Going Right
Bob Rush, who leads the team in wins with 10, has been quite solid, and CC Sabathia has pitched far better than his 5-11 record would indicate.
Youngster Kyle Peterson has been a revelation, with a 3.51 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 11 starts.
Veteran lefty Jimmy Key has done well out of the pen. But well in this context is an ERA just over 5.00 and a WHIP hovering in the 1.20 range. So … not great.
Having traded away or demoted all of their closers, Karl Spooner has quite unexpectedly stepped into the spotlight and pitched quite well at the end of games.
#What’s Not Going Right
Taylor has been awful for much of the year, with an ERA well over 6.00 most of the season. Now, it must be said, he’s pitched significantly better of late, winning his last 5 decisions and dropping his ERA by roughly a run.
They’ve run a lot of arms through the rotation, with Frank Sullivan, Kerry Wood, Ferguson Jenkins, and Rick Reuschel all getting at least 5 starts. Of those, only Reuschel has been passable.
It’s a very high ranked system and, honestly, it’s not hard to see why.
There is star potential in the OF in Cody Bellinger and Heliodoro Hidalgo, on the IF with Darren Daulton, Cap Anson and Dave Malarcher. On the mound, it seems like some arms will come through from the group of Larry Dierker, Bill Lee, Eddie Rommel, Ad Gumbert, and Joe Nuxhall.
Danny Green, Tip O’Neill, Frank Dwyer, Bunny Downs, and Chris Brown may all see some WBL time as well. So there is some help on the way in terms of talent.
The challenge is that much of the talent is positionally blocked: the OF just gets more crowded, 3B is pretty much set, etc. Daulton has the clearest path, but is still a year or two away.
WHAT’S NEEDED
Probably a blockbuster trade or two to obtain some pitching and clear out some of the positional redundancy.
Storylines to Watch
Key Questions from Spring Training
How does the team integrate its considerable young talent into the roster as the season progresses? As many as 8 spots on the pitching staff are available, as are the backup C and IF jobs. This is probably the first of these that is totally off base. So much optimism in the Spring, crashed on the rocks of the pitching mound. That said, Santo, Hebner, Chance, Rizzo, Sosa, and Banks are all 25 or younger, so in that sense, the focus on the development of the young talent was correct.
FEATURED SERIES
We’ll focus on the 3 game matchup with Homestead. Currently, the two teams are 4th and 5th in the Wild Card race, separated by only .5 of a game. A sweep here either way would solidify the postseason claim of either side.
Projected Starters
House of David starter listed first.
Kyle Peterson (7-2, 3.51) @ Francisco Liriano (8-11, 5.18) Jack Taylor (9-10, 6.02) @ Doug Drabek (4-6, 4.98) Bob Rush (10-7, 5.42) @ Cliff Lee (6-3, 5.44)
If the projected starters hold, it looks as good as it can for the House of David, giving them a decent shot to take 2 out of 3 … but a sweep would be better.
Game One
On the one hand, this is a September matchup between 2 disappointing teams, both sitting a few games below .500. But. Homestead is only 1.5 games off the Wild Card pace, and the House of David is merely .5 a game behind them.
So here we go, with something to play for.
The impressive Kyle Peterson takes the mound for the House of David, while the Grays counter with their erstwhile #1 starter, Francisco Liriano.
The House of David took an early lead when, after a double by Craig Reynolds, Frank Chance legged out an infield hit to plate a run. Chance was thrown out trying to steal, but Pete Browning followed a Richie Hebner double with an RBI single for the 2-0 lead.
Rick Reichardt got one back with his 37th homer of the year in the bottom of the 4th and then, an inning later, Honus Wagner and Andy Van Slyke each doubled, tying the game. Mike Epstein hit a dribbler that found its way to dead space, plating Van Slyke so, after 5 innings, Homestead led, 3-2.
But, no worries for the House of David: after all, they have Tony Conigliaro. The supernova like debut for the young OF continued, as he ripped his 6th homerun 1n 17 at bats off Liriano in the 7th, tying the game. And then, a familiar disaster for the House of David: Pete Browning being helped off the field with an injury. This time, it was legging out a double, plating Chance with the go-ahead run.
Van Slyke tied it up in the bottom of the 9th with a double off Ed Bauta. That setup intentional walks to load the bases, with Bauta facing Reichardt with the game on the line. Reichardt did his job, lifting a decent pitch far enough into LF to score the tagging Van Slyke, giving Homestead the first game of the series.
Browning had 3 hits before his injury, and Wagner rapped out 3 hits for the Grays.
HOD 4 (Bauta 4-5, BSv 6; Downs H 1; Spooner H 3) @ HOM 5 (Lindblom 8-4) HRs: HOD – Conigliaro (6); HOM – Reichardt (37). Box Score
Browning headed to the DL after the game, hopefully to return before the season closes out, with the House of David recalling young IF Dave Malarcher.
Game Two
With Jack Taylor not quite rested, the House of David will go with Jimmy Key, giving the veteran lefty his 2nd start of the season against Homestead’s Doug Drabek.
Key struggled off the bat, surrendering back to back homeruns to Josh Gibson and Willie Stargell in the bottom of the 1st for an early 3-0 lead for the Grays. An Andrew McCutchen homerun, a Judy Johnson triple, and Stargell’s 2nd shot of the game chased Key in the 2nd inning, but the runs kept coming via a 2 run single from Napoleon Lajoie, making it 10-0 after 2 innings.
More runs scored, which really made the game a chance for each team to empty their benches, including a WBL debut for the recently recalled Dave Malarcher.
The House of David avoided a shutout on a 2-run double from Tony Conigliaro in the 9th, but that was cold comfort in a 16-2 loss.
McCutchen, Lajoie, Honus Wagner, and Johnson each had 3 hits for Homestead, with McCutchen driving in 4 and Gibson 3.
This was not a good time for the House of David to not show up … they head into the third game of the series having dropped to 3.5 games off the Wild Card pace (while Homestead has moved to only a single game back of Kansas City).
The House of David will send Jack Taylor to the hill, with Homestead countering with Hal Carlson, making his 2nd start of the season.
It started well for the House of David: Carlson loaded the bases, then gave up a 3-run double to Sammy Sosa. Richie Hebner added a solo shot–his 23rd homer of the year–in the 2nd, upping the lead to 4-0.
Honus Wagner cut the lead to 4-1 with an RBI double in the bottom of the 2nd, then Willie Stargell closed the game to 4-3 with his 48th homerun of the year.
The House of David touched Carlson for one more run in the 5th on an RBI double from Anthony Rizzo, but again Taylor gave it back, this time on a 2-run double from Josh Gibson, tying the game at 5.
Carlson was replaced by David Price, who promptly gave up a moon shot to Sosa: 6-5, House of David. Ron Santo‘s 28th of the year gave the House of David a 2 run edge heading into the bottom of the 9th, when they turned to Ed Bauta, who easily closed it out.
Jim Pagliaroni and Curtis Granderson each hit 2 out of the ballpark, accounting for all 9 runs as Birmingham topped the Gothams, 9-2. Albert Belle and Ryan Braun did the same later in the series, leading the Black Barons to a 13-3 victory.
#Indianapolis ABC’s
Chris Sabo hit 2 homeruns and the ABC’s scored thirteen runs in an inning to break the game wide open, topping Ottawa 16-6 behind another strong start from Luis Padrón, who improved to 16-3 on the season.
Edward Nolan‘s solid enough rookie campaign came to an end as the young hurler was sent to the DL with an elbow injury. While he’ll miss the rest of the season, the ABC’s remain confident he’ll be fully recovered for next season. Dolf Luque was recalled from AAA.
#Kansas City Monarchs
Smokey Joe Wood had 3 hits and struck out 13 over 8 strong innings as the Monarchs topped the House of David, 3-2 behind homeruns from Robinson Canó and Ted Simmons. Wood improved to 13-10 on the year.
#Wandering House of David
Jim Clinton and Anthony Rizzo were both recalled from rehab assignments. Clinton’s return was easy, with Bob Shaw heading to AAA. Rizzo’s was far more complicated, as, even with Cap Anson heading back to AAA, it leaves the House of David with 4 players–Rizzo, Richie Hebner, Mark McGwire, and Ron Santo–rotating through 3 positions (1B, 3B, and DH). For now, they’ll try to spread the PA’s around, but if McGwire’s hot start continues, it does present a bit of a logjam.
It was a good news/bad news day for the House of David: Jack Taylor found some of his form from last season and the team hit 3 consecutive homeruns and 5 overall in a 9-2 win over Indianapolis, but Pete Browning will head–once again–to the DL after being injured making a diving catch in CF in the top of the first. Veteran John Titus was recalled from AAA.
Kyle Peterson continues to be a surprise, combining with Karl Spooner and Ed Bauta on a 4-hit shutout with the House of David topping Kansas City, 4-0. With his 7 scoreless innings, Peterson dropped his ERA below 3.00 and improved his record to 5-2.
Rizzo homered twice, driving in 4, as the House of David edged Kansas City, 8-7. George Stone had 4 hits in the win.
Juan Ríncón did not improve after being removed from the closer role. As such, the Black Barons have sent him to AAA, hoping he can recover some of his magic from last season. Joe Orrell was recalled.
Sam Streeter started a rehab assignment, and should be back within a week or so.
#Houston Colt 45’s
Tug McGraw both blew a save against Birmingham and had to exit with elbow pain. The Colt 45’s closer will miss 2 weeks, prompting Houston to recall Jim Kern from AAA.
#Indianapolis ABC’s
Mike Redmond was sent to AAA, with Larry Pratt being promoted to serve as Johnny Bench‘s backup.
Luis Padrón improved to 15-3 with a 3 hit shutout as the ABCs triumphed over Kansas City, 7-0. Padrón opened the scoring in the game with his 5th homer of the year, and walked 1 while striking out 5 in his 3rd shutout of the season.
#Wandering House of David
Ron Santo went deep twice as the House of David beat Homestead, 10-5. The game was costly, however, as Ryne Sandberg has to hit the DL after suffering a back injury. Billy Herman was recalled from AAA, and will split time at 2B with Craig Reynolds in Sandberg’s absence.
Sam Streeter will miss a few starts with shoulder inflammation. Rube Melton was recalled from AAA to take his place in the interim.
Jim Pagliaroni went deep twice and Birmingham topped Kansas City, 7-4.
#Houston Colt 45’s
Teenager Leon Day was returned to AAA with 20 year old Vida Blue being recalled to make his WBL debut.
Craig Biggio hit 2 out but Houston fell to Philadelphia, 9-5.
#Indianapolis ABC’s
Emil Frisk, who has done quite well since being recalled, will miss about a month with an abdominal strain. Jake Stenzel–who started the season with Indianapolis, but was injured himself–was recalled.
George Foster hit 2 homeruns as the ABC’s beat the House of David, 9-4.
#Wandering House of David
Sammy Sosa and Ernie Banks each went deep twice as the House of David beat Indianapolis, 13-5. Ron Santo, Ryne Sandberg, and Mark McGwire also hit homeruns, with McGwire’s being his 5th in only 8 games.
JP Arencibia continued to grow in Black Barons’ folklore, tying the league record with 3 homeruns in a 13-5 victory over Brooklyn. Albert Belle went deep twice and Bob Nieman, Gene Tenace, and Adrían González each homered once for Birmingham. John Malarkey was decent, improving to 5-2 on the season.
#Houston Colt 45’s
With Casey Stengel set to miss over a month, the Colt 45’s made 2 moves, first sending struggling 1B/DH Andrés Galarraga to AAA in exchange for Paul Goldschmidt, who will slide into the same role and then also recalling closer Roberto Osuna to help out in the bullpen.
George Brett had 3 doubles and Tony Gwynn added 3 hits of his own as the Colt 45’s topped Kansas City, 10-7. After a(nother) poor start from Roy Oswalt, Houston’s bullpen finally delivered up to expectations, with Dock Ellis getting the win and John Franco, Brad Lidge, and Tug McGraw closing out the contest.
#Indianapolis ABC’s
The ABC’s finally ran out of patience with Dick Tidrow, and when the veteran refused to be demoted, Indianapolis released him. The ABC’s recalled Mike LaCoss from AAA.
OF Jake Stenzel started a rehab assignment, although it’s not clear where Stenzel fits in once he’s recalled to the WBL.
Joe Morgan went deep twice, but a late comeback was thwarted as the ABC’s fell to Birmingham, 9-8.
#Kansas City Monarchs
Bad news for the Monarchs, as Lou Brock will miss 6-7 months with a broken bone. With Kansas City struggling, the Monarchs decided to reach down to AA and give the awfully impressive Cool Papa Bell a chance. Bell–perhaps even faster than Brock–was slashing 376/428/656 at Oklahoma City before his recall. It’s a bold move, but one that perhaps overlooks what Merv Rettenmund has done at AAA.
José Rijo continues to run hot and cold in the extreme: the owner of the WBL’s only no-hitter combined with Jeff Pfeffer on a 4 hit shutout of Houston. Rijo whiffed 10 and Ducky Medwick tripled and homered in the 3-0 victory.
The Monarchs demolished Houston behind a complete game effort from Smokey Joe Wood, who improved his record to 10-6. Both Ted Simmons and Willie McGee had 3 doubles and Medwick drove in 5 as Kansas City pounded out 19 hits in the 14-1 win.
#Wandering House of David
Sammy Sosa went deep 3 times (for the 2nd time this season) and Ernie Banks twice as the House of David overcame a rough start to beat Homestead, 12-6. Banks and Sosa drove in 4 runs each, and Ron Santo added 3 RBI’s, with the win going to Bob Rush, who improved to 7-6 despite giving up 6 runs in 5 innings.
Ferguson Jenkins put on what was easily his best outing of the year, allowing 3 hits in 7 shutout innings while fanning 11 in a 5-2 win over Homestead.
We’ll preview the All Star selections, so this will be a bit of a longer entry.
#Awards
Lots of awards, as we moved into a new month!
First, the smaller ones. Houston‘s Jeff Bagwell was the National League Player of the Week, hitting .409 with 5 homeruns while Eric Davis of the juggernaut New York Black Yankees was the American League Player of the Week, hitting .481 with 5 homers in the same span.
In the monthly awards, the American League Rookie of the Month for June was San Francisco‘s Turkey Stearnes, who hit .378 with 11 homeruns in the month.
Kansas City‘s A. Rube Foster was both the National League Rookie of the Month and the NL Pitcher of the Month, going 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA, as the young hurler announced himself as, at least so far, a premier WBL starter. The American League Pitcher of the Month was Bump Hadley, Stearnes’ teammate in San Francisco. Hadley was 5-0 in June with a 2.66 ERA.
Ottawa‘s star backstop, Gary Carter, was the National League Batter of the Month, hitting .397 with 14 homeruns in June while in the American League, unsurprisingly, the award went to the stellar Ty Cobb. The Detroit OF hit .408 with 11 homers in June, which actually brought his overall average down in that span (Cobb is leading the WBL in BA at .418).
#Team Performance
Yawn.
The Black Yankees and the Sea Lions continue to be the 2 best teams in the league, leading their divisions by 5 and 11 games respectively.
The Effa Manley Division might offer some excitement in the second half, as Brooklyn still leads Homestead by 4 and the New York Gothams by 5.5. But the only true race is in the Marvin Miller Division, where Kansas City has overtaken Indianapolis, now leading the ABC’s by 2.5 games.
The Houston Colt 45’s are 8-2 over their last 10 games, but still sit 5 games under .500. Detroit and Philadelphia are moving in the other direction, with each team managing only 2 wins in their last 10 contests.
Birmingham still has the worst record in the league, but they have moved over .400, sitting at .410 (34-49).
#Player Performance
Batters
It’s still Ty Cobb’s world, although Babe Ruth is doing Babe Ruth things, and reached the 40 homerun plateau during the last week.
José Canseco (MCG). 254/375/734. 36 HR. Oscar Charleston (IND). 336/386/642. 103 H, 9 3B. Ty Cobb (DET). 416/464/885. 116 H, 37 2B, 8 3B, 5.8 WAR. Josh Gibson (HOM). 392/481/748. 5.1 WAR. Tony Gwynn (HOU). 389/425/601. 116 H. Pete Hill (HOU). 291/371/487. 10 3B. Joe Jackson (CAG). 356/398/588. 103 H, 39 2B. Stan Musial (KCM). 329/392/573. 37 2B. Babe Ruth (NYY). 292/426/775. 40 HR, 90 RBI, 82 R, 68 BB, 5.0 WAR. Larry Walker (OTT). 293/369/721. 36 HR, 85 RBI.
Rickey Henderson (San Francisco) and Tim Raines (Ottawa) continue to be 1-2 in the league in steals, but it’s getting closer, with Henderson’s edge now 60 to 53.
Pitchers
Starters
While his performance has been somewhat below par, the New York Gothams’ Christy Mathewson continues to be definition of workhorse, leading the WBL with 20 starts, 2 ahead of a bevy of hurlers with 18.
7 pitchers have reached double-digits in wins, with Luis Padrón (Indianapolis) leading the way at 11-2. All 7 are included below. Houston’s Toad Ramsey was so dominant for so long, he is still the top starter in the league despite a recent dip in form, but I would probably choose Lefty Grove of San Francisco or the emergent A. Rube Foster.
Frank Castillo (KCM). 10-1, 4.22. A. Rube Foster (KCM). 5-1, 2.30. .203 BABIP, 0.98 WHIP, 3.70 FIP. Lefty Grove (SFS). 10-4, 3.71. 126 IP, 132 K, 3.1 WAR. Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-4, 3.86. 143 K, 3.80 FIP, 3.2 WAR. Bump Hadley (SFS). 11-4, 4.21, 3.50 FIP, 3.0 WAR. Orel Hershiser (BRK). 10-4, 3.87. Luis Padrón (IND). 11-2, 4.21. 3.57 FIP, 3.3 WAR. Eddie Plank (SFS). 11-3, 3.54. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 11-4, 2.77. 124 IP, 152 K, 0.89 WHIP, 2.80 FIP, 5.2 WAR. Ed Walsh (CAG). 6-3, 3.41. 1 Sv, .201 BABIP. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 7-7, 3.41. 3.66 FIP, 3.4 WAR.
Relievers
We’ve listed the top 3 leaders in saves, all 5 of the relievers who have reached double digits in Holds, as well as all 5 with an ERA below 2.00.
18 IP minimum.
Rod Beck (SFS). 3-2, 3.47. 21 Sv. Rheal Cormier (NYY). 0-2, 6.03. 11 H. Eric Gagne (BRK). 1-1, 2.92. 19 Sv. Ken Howell (SFS). 4-1, 1.72. 1 Sv, 4 H. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-4, 4.13. 1 Sv, 10 H. Brad Kilby (PHI). 1-2, 4.39. 2 Sv, 10 H. Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 2-1, 1.14. 2 Sv, 11 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 4-2, 3.45. 20 Sv. Rob Murphy (IND). 1-3, 3.75. 1 Sv, 11 H. Robb Nen (NYG). 3-2, 1.95. 9 Sv, 6 H. Ron Robinson (SFS). 1-0, 1.64. 3 Sv, 3 H. BJ Ryan (OTT). 1-2, 4.15. 1 Sv, 10 H. Harley Young (BBB). 1-0, 1.23. 3 Sv, 5 H.
#Injury Report
Portland lost half of their backstop platoon as AJ Pierzynski will be out for close to a month. News was worse for Ottawa, as SP Bob Moose is out for close to a year.
Houston’s Casey Stengel and Kansas City’s Lou Brock are awaiting diagnosis on their current injuries.
Baltimore’s Bobby Wallace, Detroit’s Billy Hoeft, and the Black Yankees’ Dave Righetti should all begin rehab assignments this week.
#The All Star Candidates
We’ll look at these by position, mixing the two leagues for the time being.
For each position, we’ve included as many players as it takes to have at least 3-4 candidates from each league, highlighting some pretty severe disparities in talent between the AL and the NL.
If players don’t qualify for the batting stats, their playing time is noted, as are some other potentially influencing factors. This indicates a leader at that position among the players listed (but not necessarily overall).
Each league can only select 32 players for the All Star Game itself (usually 20 or 21 position players and 11 or 12 pitchers), so quite a few of the players listed here will be left on the outside looking in.
#C
The NL dominates here, with 3 catchers with an OPS over 1.000. That means some worthy candidates–most notably NYG’s Buster Posey –are likely to miss out.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Josh Gibson
HOM / NL
1.229
5.1 WAR; 67 RBI
3.1 FRM
Gary Carter
OTT /NL
1.073
28 HR
47.1 RTO%
Mike Piazza
BRK / NL
1.042
29 HR; 65 RBI
4.87 CERA
Ed Bailey
DET / AL
.972
57 G/216 PA; 43.6 RTO%
Jim Pagliaroni
BBB / NL
.925
61 G/231 PA
Mickey Cochrane
SFS / AL
.917
10 SB; 4.39 CERA
Ted Simmons
KCM / NL
.900
63 G/256 PA; 4.15 CERA
Buster Posey
NYG / NL
.870
3.8 FRM
Joe Mauer
POR / AL
.856
14 SB
Curt Blefary
BAL /AL
.826
Carlton Fisk
CAG / AL
.800
67 G/254 PA; 11 SB
FRM = Framing Runs | RTO% = Runners Thrown Out | CERA = Catcher ERA
The other stalwart defensive catchers–Miami‘s Iván Rodríguez and Indianapolis’ Johnny Bench–just haven’t hit enough, although a late surge by Bench has moved him up these lists.
I don’t think there is any question in the NL, where it’s Gibson, Carter, and Piazza. Cochrane and Mauer should be in for the AL, with a question of whether you go with Bailey’s bat in more limited appearances or Blefary. Should the NL decide to carry 4 backstops, the choice between Pagliaroni and Simmons (and, perhaps, Posey) is close.
Gibson and Cochrane should be the starters.
#1B
The AL has a slight edge here, but there’s a lot of talent throughout.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Lou Gehrig
NYY / AL
1.057
28 HR; 21 2B; 65 RBI
.995 Fldg
Will Clark
NYG / NL
1.006
Frank Thomas
CAG / AL
1.004
Hank Greenberg
DET / AL
.991
26 HR
.998 Fldg; 3.1 ZR
Mike Epstein
HOM / NL
.965
Anthony Rizzo
HOD / NL
.964
Lance Berkman
CLE / AL
.957
Jim Thome
MCG / AL
.927
28 HR; 64 RBI
Jeff Bagwell
HOU / NL
.923
66 RBI
.995 Fldg
Boog Powell
KCM / NL
.920
.995 Fldg; 9.23 RF; 2.9 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Gehrig and Clark are almost certainly the starters, and the AL will likely take Thomas and Greenberg as well. In the NL, it gets a little trickier, as Powell (along with Greenberg) is one of the better 1B defensively. Epstein’s offense will carry him, but after that my guess is Rizzo gets the selection (but cannot participate via injury), and is replaced by Powell, with Bagwell having a legitimate complaint.
#2B
The NL is ridiculously stacked in terms of offensive-minded 2B.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Joe Morgan
IND / NL
1.088
47 G/199 PA
Roberto Alomar
OTT/ NL
1.008
21 2B; 18 HR; 64 RBI; 31 SB; 3.5 WAR
Ryne Sandberg
HOD / NL
.995
28 HR; 60 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.997 Fldg; 5.00 RF
Jackie Robinson
BRK / NL
.938
Rogers Hornsby
POR / AL
.919
53 G/234 PA
Charlie Gehringer
DET / AL
.876
57 G/225 PA; .989 Fldg; 5.09 RF
Eddie Collins
CAG / AL
.850
36 SB
Bobby Grich
LAA / AL
.845
15 HR
Craig Biggio
HOU / NL
.841
Chase Utley
PHI / NL
.781
4.92 RF; 9.3 ZR
Cookie Rojas
MCG / AL
.766
27 2B
.987 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Joe Morgan is included just for interest–he missed too much time to injury to warrant serious consideration. Detroit’s Charlie Gehringer, on the other hand, probably makes the cut, despite starting the season in the minors.
In the NL, it’s pretty clear: Alomar, Sandberg, and Robinson, with the starter being decided between Sandberg and Alomar over the next week. The AL is trickier, but I think it ends up going according to form: Eddie Collins to start, with Gehringer and Hornsby behind him.
#SS
It’s pretty impressive there are this many shortstops that can hit, and Ernie Banks‘ production is incredible.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ernie Banks
HOD/ NL
.978
30 HR; 71 RBI
Cal Ripken, Jr.
BAL / AL
.967
39 G/140 PA; .993 Fldg; 4.90 RF
Carlos Correa
HOU/ NL
.929
18 2B; 2.8 WAR
Arky Vaughan
CLE / AL
.887
19 2B; 2.4 WAR
6.3 ZR
Álex Rodríguez
OTT / NL
.885
23 HR
Robin Yount
MCG / AL
.845
15 HR
5.8 ZR
Jim Fregosi
POR / AL
.793
Dick Lundy
SFS / AL
.783
7 3B; 2.1 WAR; 33 SB
Derek Jeter
NYY / AL
.762
Dobie Moore
MEM / AL
.750
22 SB
.983 Fldg
Ozzie Smith
KCM / NL
.672
19 2B; 25 SB
.994 Fldg; 6.3 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Ripken, Jr. is really not a serious contender, but he has been impressive in the 40 G’s he’s played. That gives us Banks, Correa, and Rodríguez in the NL and Vaughan, Yount, and either Fregosi or Lundy in the AL.
Smith is included because of his superlative defense, but doesn’t probably make the cut.
This is an interesting position: Vaughan and Rodríguez changed teams in the off season, and Correa’s performance has been a bit of a shock.
#3B
The top 5 are locks, beyond that, it gets much trickier, especially in the NL.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Albert Pujols
KCM / NL
1.046
32 2B; 60 RBI; 2.8 WAR
Ron Cey
BRK / NL
.967
2.4 WAR
.976 Fldg; 3.3 ZR
Gary Sheffield
MCG/ AL
.929
22 HR; 55 RBI; 15 SB
Evan Longoria
CLE / AL
.926
2.2 ZR
Mike Schmidt
NYY / AL
.926
23 HR; 55 RBI
2.59 RF
Scott Rolen
PHI / NL
.922
2.1 WAR
.974 Fldg; 2.7 ZR
Ron Santo
HOD /NL
.906
52 G/192 PA
Eddie Mathews
BBB / NL
.904
24 HR
.978 Fldg; 2.66 RF
Wade Boggs
MEM / AL
.896
26 2B
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
After Pujols and Cey, it’s hard in the NL. Matthews and Rolen edge ahead of Santo due to defense and Santo’s relative low usage, but picking between the two of them is very challenging, to the point the NL may go with 4 players at the hot corner.
#OF
All of the OF spots are a bit combined in the end, but we’re keeping them separate for the sake of comparison.
#LF
When Detroit’s Ty Cobb plays the OF, he plays here as well, making the AL selections pretty simple.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Babe Ruth
NYY / AL
1.201
40 HR; 90 RBI; 5.0 WAR
.988 Fldg; 5.1 ZR
Ted Williams
MEM / AL
1.063
23 2B; 65 RBI
Frank Robinson
BAL / AL
1.035
24 HR; 64 RBI; 2.3 WAR
1.000 Fldg
Adam Dunn
IND / NL
.906
24 HR
.989 Fldg; 3.41 RF
Roy White
BRK / NL
.866
Oscar Gamble
DET / AL
.852
Rickey Henderson
SFS / AL
.840
2.8 WAR; 60 SB
7.2 ZR
Tim Raines
OTT / NL
.773
7 3B; 53 SB
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
So, Ruth, Williams, and Robinson are in, and perhaps Henderson’s 60+ SB warrant a spot. In the NL, it’s more challenging. Dunn seems to be a lock, and White is a bit of a sentimental choice. It may be just those 2 from this group.
#CF
Tris Speaker, as despicable of a human being as he is, is the best in the AL right now, especially considering the defensive contribution. Over in the NL, Willie Mays probably edges Oscar Charleston as the starter.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Rick Monday
OTT /NL
1.172
41 G/136 PA
Tris Speaker
CLE / AL
1.088
31 2B; 4.0 WAR
2.68 RF; 5.1 ZR; 6 Kills
Turkey Stearnes
SFS / AL
1.065
7 3B; 24 HR
Eric Davis
NYY / AL
1.058
26 SB
41 G/188 PA; 1.000 Fldg
Julio Rodríguez
MCG / AL
1.052
39 G/177 PA
Oscar Charleston
IND / NL
1.027
9 3B; 60 RBI; 24 SB
Willie Mays
NYG / NL
.977
31 HR; 62 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.990 Fldg; 2.70 RF; 7.7 ZR
Mike Trout
LAA / AL
.965
24 2B; 2.8 WAR; 21 SB
1.000 Fldg
Carlos Beltrán
OTT / NL
.916
63 RBI; 21 SB
Alejandro Oms
MCG / AL
.883
5 3B
6.3 ZR
Curtis Granderson
BBB / NL
.876
26 HR
3.01 RF
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Monday, Davis, and Rodríguez aren’t really in contention, but their performances in limited action have been pretty spectacular.
Speaker, Stearnes, and Trout are pretty much locks in the AL, with Oms being a hard luck case. Beltrán deserves the spot behind Mays and Charleston.
#RF
A deep, deep group, probably 4 deep in each league.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
José Canseco
MCG / AL
1.109
36 HR
Larry Walker
OTT / NL
1.090
36 HR; 85 RBI; 22.4 WAR
3.89 RF
Reggie Jackson
SFS / AL
1.027
63 RBI; 2.8 WAR; 24 SB
Tony Gwynn
HOU / NL
1.026
6 3B; 24 2B; 2.8 WAR
Aaron Judge
PHI / NL
.994
.992 Fldg
Mickey Mantle
NYY / AL
.993
30 HR; 76 RBI
Joe Jackson
CAG /AL
.986
39 2B; 27 SB
Stan Musial
KCM / NL
.964
37 2B
5.5 ZR
Johnny Callison
NYG / NL
.945
.993 Fldg
Mookie Betts
MEM / AL
.865
24 2B
1.000 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Canseco, Mantle, and the 2 Jacksons seem locks in the AL, with Walker, Gwynn, and Judge in the NL. It’s possible Musial misses the cut, as ridiculous as that sounds.
#DH
The pressure here is immense, given the competition for the other OF spots.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ty Cobb
DET / AL
1.350
37 2B; 8 3B; 26 HR; 73 RBI; 5.8 WAR; 31 SB
Kal Daniels
LAA / AL
1.023
21 2B; 2.3 WAR; 30 SB
Manny Ramírez
MEM / AL
.986
56 G/224 PA
Ryan Braun
MCG/ AL
.982
31 HR
Willie Stargell
HOM / NL
.980
27 HR
Gavvy Cravath
BAL / AL
.926
22 2B; 69 RBI
Benny Kauff
NYG / NL
.909
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Cobb is, of course, a lock, and it would be hard to keep Daniels off the roster. Beyond that, though, it gets difficult to justify a pure DH, although Braun, Stargell, and Cravath all have decent arguments.
#P
Pitching is, of course, a constant crapshoot, and a lot could change in the outings this week.
All pitchers are sorted by ERA.
#SP
This list has everyone with an ERA under 4.00 or 10 or more wins.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Toad Ramsey
HOU / NL
11-4, 2.77
152 K; 0.89 WHIP; 5.2 WAR; 2.80 FIP
71% QS; 5 CG; 2 SHO; 2.34 SIERA; 1.7 WPA
Doc Gooden
LAA / AL
7-5, 3.17
Hardie Henderson
PHI/ NL
9-6, 3.18
Smokey Joe Williams
BRK / NL
7-7, 3.41
3.4 WAR
Ed Walsh
CAG / AL
6-3, 3.41
1.06 WHIP
Eddie Plank
SFS / AL
11-3, 3.54
Roger Clemens
HOU / NL
9-4, 3.71
65% QS
Lefty Grove
SFS / AL
10-4, 3.71
132 K
4 CG; 3 SHO; 2.87 SIERA
Johnny Cueto
IND / NL
8-4, 3.75
67% QS
Rube Foster
IND / NL
6-4, 3.80
Ron Guidry
NYY / AL
8-4, 3.86
143 K
2.58 SIERA
Orel Hershiser
BRK / NL
10-4, 3.87
Brett Anderson
LAA / AL
7-2, 3.91
1.06 WHIP
Andy Pettitte
NYY / AL
9-5, 4.05
Bump Hadley
SFS / AL
11-4, 4.21
3.50 FIP
Luis Padrón
IND / NL
11-2, 4.21
3.3 WA; 3.57 FIP
Frank Castillo
KCM / NL
10-1, 4.22
3 CG; 2 SHO
José Méndez
MCG / AL
6-4, 4.45
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Right now, I would guess the starting matchup is Toad Ramsey for the NL and Eddie Plank for the AL.
Beyond that, in the AL, I see Gooden, Walsh, and Grove as easy picks. Guidry is likely in as well, leaving Anderson and Hadley on the bubble.
The NL is much harder to figure out. Henderson, Hershiser, Padrón, and Castillo feel like they deserve selections, with Williams having a very strong case as well. That would leave some excellent performances–Clemens and Cueto especially–on the outside looking in.
#Swingmen / Long Relivers
These are players who are either swing starters or have seen more innings than the finishers below. As is often the case, there are a few folks here who, for whatever the reason, took a while to be inserted into the rotation.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
A. Rube Foster
KCM/ NL
5-1, 2.30
0.98 WHIP
7 GS; 90 IP; 86% QS; 2 SHO; 1.0 WPA
Jim Whitney
BBB / NL
4-2, 3.26
1 Sv; 2 H; 1.03 WHIP
11 GS; 94 IP; 73% QS; 1.9 WPA
Tom Brewer
SFS / AL
0-1, 2.33
1 Sv; 2 H
2 GS; 27 IP
Fernando Valenzuela
BRK / NL
5-0, 2.37
1 Sv; 4 H; 0.96 WHIP
1 GS; 60 IP; 1.0 WPA
Rheal Cormier
NYY / AL
0-2, 6.03
11 H
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Foster and Valenzuela seem clear selections, with Brewer and Cormier missing the cut and Whitney being on the bubble.
#Closers & Setups
20 IP Minimum, with a possible exception for Brian Wilson of the New York Gothams.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Brian Wilson
NYG/ NL
1-0, 1.08
11 Sv
17 IP
Craig Kimbrel
KCM / NL
2-1, 1.14
2 Sv; 11 H; 0.89 WHIP
15 SD; 5.6 IRS%; 2.90 SIERA; 2.0 WPA
Harley Young
BBB / NL
1-0, 1.23
3 Sv; 5 H
Ron Robinson
SFS / AL
1-0, 1.64
3 Sv; 3 H
Ken Howell
SFS / AL
4-1, 1.72
1 Sv; 4 H
Robb Nen
NYG / NL
3-2, 1.95
9 Sv; 6 H
Eddie Guardado
KCM / NL
2-1, 2.08
1 Sv; 5 H
2.92 SIERA
Tug McGraw
HOU / NL
3-3, 2.16
7 Sv
Ross Reynolds
LAA / AL
2-0, 2.19
1 Sv; 1 H
Goose Gossage
NYY / AL
2-3, 2.32
9 Sv; 8 H
.90 Sv%
Lee Smith
HOD / NL
4-1, 2.73
5 Sv; 6 H; 0.73 WHIP
Eric Gagne
BRK / NL
1-1, 2.92
19 Sv
17 SD
Justin Hampson
BAL / AL
0-0, 3.00
7 H; 0.95 WHIP
Terry Adams
CLE / AL
1-2, 3.18
15 Sv; 2 H
.94 Sv%
Josh Lindblom
HOM / NL
4-2, 3.45
20 Sv
.95 Sv%; 16 SD; 1.3 WPA
Rod Beck
SFS / AL
3-2, 3.47
21 Sv; 0.73 WHIP
15 SD
Rob Murphy
IND / NL
1-3, 3.75
1 Sv; 11 H
Michael Jackson
HOM / NL
1-4, 4.13
1 Sv; 10 H
BJ Ryan
OTT / NL
1-2, 4.15
1 Sv; 10 H
Brad Kilby
PHI / NL
1-2, 4.39
2 Sv; 10 H
2.73 SIERA
Rob Dibble
IND / NL
2-2, 5.25
16 Sv
Jeff Pfeffer
KCM / NL
1-3, 5.61
16 Sv
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
A difficult set of choices for sure. Of the true closers, Gagne, Lindblom, and Beck seem locks, with Kimbrel, Young, Howell, Nen, McGraw, Gossage, and Smith deserving nods as well.
That would give the NL 7 selections, likely keeping Wilson from making the team. It would also give the AL only 3, opening the door for Adams and even Reynolds or Hampson.
