Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Steve Carlton Page 1 of 4

TWIWBL 101.5: Year 3, Week 4 – Effa Manley Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Ottawa Mounties16-8.667—
Philadelphia Stars16-10.6151
Homestead Grays13-11.5423
New York Gothams13-11.5423
Brooklyn Royal Giants13-12.5203.5
Effa Manley Division | 29 April

Brooklyn Royal Giants

A 12-run fifth inning carried Brooklyn past Baltimore 18-6. The game was tied 4-4 when the inning started and it was 16-4 when it ended: Brooklyn scored 12 runs on 11 hits in the frame. In that game, Dan Brouthers went 5-for-6 with a homerun and 2 doubles and Roy White reached 5 times and scored 4 runs.

Ron Cey hit 2 homeruns and drove in 5 in the second game of a doubleheader, an 8-6 win over Philadelphia. Smokey Joe Williams struck out 12 in the game, but gave up all 6 runs (3 of them on homeruns, which are plaguing the young right-hander). Williams was 2-for-4 with a double as the DH, and did manage to get the victory, thanks to Cey’s heroics.

Homestead Grays

Andrew McCutchen hit 2 homeruns and drove in 3 against San Francisco in a game the Grays took 10 innings to win, 5-3.

New York Gothams

Christy Mathewson struck out 10 in 6 innings to beat Detroit 3-2 at the Polo Grounds, which was (foreshadowing here) his 4th win without a loss. The next day, HR Johnson hit 2 homeruns and drove in 5 in a 9-8 win over the Wolverines.

Don Buford hit 2 homeruns and a double the next afternoon in a 6-2 win over Baltimore. Mathewson took that one too, moving to 5-0.

Dave Righetti is out about 2 weeks. This may hurt, as Righetti posted a 2.84 ERA over his 4 starts, making an argument that he was more than a throw-in in the Gaylord Perry for HR Johnson trade. Vic Raschi was recalled to cover it.

Ottawa Mounties

Charles Radbourn threw a 2-hit shutout of Cleveland, for a game score of 87. The 2-0 win improved Radbourn’s record to 2-0 with a microscopic 1.38 ERA.

Dupee Shaw has begun a rehab assignment.

Philadelphia Stars

The injuries keep being the news in Philadelphia, with a couple big ones.

Charles Rogan is out about 2 weeks–a massive loss, but it is only 2 weeks. Obviously, nobody replaces both halves of Rogan, with the Stars opting to recall an arm in the form of John Burkett.

Closer Bob Howry is being shut down for about a month after a rocky start. Mark Melancon becomes the Stars’ closer, although expect Philadelphia to use Ryan Madson in that role as well.

But wait, there’s more: Ted Kennedy, recalled only a few days prior, hits the DL for a week and Bill Gatewood is out for a little more than that. All of this results in, in addition to Burkett, John Clarkson and Tommy Hunter being recalled.

On the other side of the seesaw, Jack Kralick has begun a rehab assignment.

Steve Carlton threw a complete game against the Black Yankees, holding them to a single run and striking out 11 for a game score of 84. With the 6-1 victory, Carlton improves to 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA.

TWIWBL 101.1: Year 3, Week 4 – Easing Into the Season

29 April, 2002

#Awards

Al Kaline is the AL Player of the Week for Detroit, on a .400 week with 6 doubles, 2 homeruns and 10 RBI — powered by a 3-double game followed by a 2-homer, 5-RBI day. He is hitting .326 with 7 homeruns.

The NL Player of the Week is the New York Gothams‘ HR Johnson, who hit .400 with 4 homeruns and 9 RBI over 6 games, slugging .960. Johnson is fast becoming a fan favorite for the Gothams, for obvious reasons, but also for confirmation that perhaps they pulled a fast one on the Black Yankees in the offseason with his acquistion.

In the minors: Josh Harrison (New York Black Yankees) took the award at AAA Newark on a 14-for-28 week, and continues to make an argument for a longer trial at the WBL level; Steve Henderson (Los Angeles) took the AA Player of the Week, and Bob Cerv (Houston) won it at A-ball.

#Three Games

{A new section: when I can’t think of better topic for the front page, we’ll highlight 3 games of note from the week that was.}

Cleveland @ Ottawa, 24 April

Two pitchers with lightning in their arms and massive question marks on their futures faced off in Ottawa, with Cleveland’s Bob Feller taking the mound against the Mounties’ Big Question Mark, Randy Johnson. Both did well, allowing only a single run each. Feller’s day was better, with 11 strikeouts in over 6 innings, while Johnson did his usual thing, walking as many as he whiffed (5 of each).

Neither were around for the exciting parts of the game.

First, in the top of the 7th, RBI’s by Tris Speaker and Larry Doby gave Cleveland a 3-1 lead. Then, the Spiders turned the game over to Aroldis Chapman–their key offseason acquisition, who has been even more important with closer Terry Adams hurt for about a week. Chapman has been … awful. Which continued here.

First, he hit Gary Carter, then gave up singles to Álex Rodríguez and Adrián Beltré, loading the bases. And then Ottawa’s manager got creative, first sending pitcher Bill Smith in to pinch run for Beltré and then sending Old Hoss Radbourn, another pitcher, up to hit for the struggling John Olerud. While the fans were scratching their heads–Olerud is obviously better at the plate than Radbourn–Radbourn simply delivered, driving in 2 with a sharply hit single to left.

Chapman got to 2 outs, but no further, as a single from Roberto Alomar plated Radbourn with the winning run.

CLE 3 (Chapman 0-2, 3 BSv) @ OTT 4 (Holland 2-0)
HRs: none.
Box Score

Chicago @ San Francisco, 28 April

After a rough start, San Francisco has begun to right the ship while Chicago has been surprisingly good in the early going. This game felt like the Sea Lions continuing to reassert their dominance … until ….

Hits from Reggie Jackson and Jack Clark were the big blows, each driving in 2, and San Francisco led 5-0 behind easily the best start of the year so far from Tom Brewer. With the strength of the Sea Lions’ bullpen a well known commodity, some fans had even begun to eye the exits.

And then came the 8th.

Charlie Ferguson allowed a single to Jack Doyle before being relieved by Ken Howell. Howell got two outs–strikeouts of Chino Smith and Mickey Vernon–but allowed 2 singles and 2 doubles before giving way to Trevor Hoffman. Cristóbal Torriente doubled in 2, Kevin Mitchell and Travis Jackson had RBIs, and Eddie Collins greeted Hoffman with a double of his own and suddenly the American Giants were, somehow, ahead, 6-5.

They didn’t need it, but Chicago wasn’t done: Smith hit a 2 run shot in the 9th and Jackson drove in 2 more with a double. With Alex Reyes shutting down San Francisco in the 8th and 9th, that was it and the American Giants emerged with a 10-5 victory.

Allen, Collins, and Jackson each had 3 hits for Chicago on the day.

CAG 10 (Reyes 1-0) @ SFS 5 (Howell 1-1; Hoffman 1 BSv)
HRs: CAG – C. Smith (9); SFS – none.
Box Score

Birmingham @ the House of David, 28 April

It was the last game of the week. We were all just tired.

So nobody thought much about it when Paul Konerko blasted a solo shot off Bob Shaw to tie the game 5-5 in the top of the 8th. Given how well the offenses performed earlier, it seemed obvious that more runs were coming (Birmingham’s John Malarkey had surrendered 11 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings, including a 3 run shot by Ernie Banks; Jack Taylor was barely better for the House of David, giving up 4 runs in his 5 innings of work).

But the bullpens decided to change the script. For Birmingham, Al Javery, Akinori Otsuka, Harley Young, and Kerry Ligtenberg combined to allow 3 hits and zero runs over 9 innings of work, while for the home team, Scott Downs, Ed Bauta, Dellin Betances, Fergie Jenkins, and Karl Spooner gave up more hits (6), but were equally effective over 8 combined frames.

So, what happened?

Birmingham turned to Slim Embrey in the bottom of the 16th. And Embrey can’t really be blamed for what happened: he retired Ryne Sandberg, then saw Pete Browning and Ernie Banks reach on errors before Ron Santo singled to load the bases. Embrey then grooved one to Anthony Rizzo, who deposited in the seats for a walkoff grandslam homerun.

Cap Anson, Sandberg, and Santo had 3 hits each for the House of David, and Bobby Grich and Melky Cabrera had 3 for the Black Barons.

BBB 5 (Embrey 0-1) @ HOD 9 (Spooner 2-0; Shaw 1 BSv)
HRs: BBB – Konerko (5); HOD – Banks (6), Rizzo (4).
Box Score

#Player Performance

Four weeks in, the lists are starting to hold their shape. Qualifying is 3.1 plate appearances or 1 inning per team game — about 80 PA and 26 innings.

#Batters

The Ted Williams problem has not gone away. He leads the WBL in batting average, on-base, slugging, runs, RBI, walks and WAR outright, and shares the homerun lead with Indianapolis’ Oscar Charleston at 12. Williams is hitting .434 with a .952 slugging percentage.

As usual, top 2-3 in most all stats below.

Cool Papa Bell (KAN). .203/.292/.291. 8 SB.
John Briggs (MEM). .247/.306/.438. 12 2B.
Pete Browning (HOD). .337/.393/.525. 9 SB.
Rico Carty (PHI). .375/.446/.694.
Oscar Charleston (IND). .304/.345/.676. 12 HR, 29 RBI, 1.8 WAR.
Ty Cobb (DET). .348/.402/.685. 1.5 WAR.
Lou Gehrig (NYY). .311/.398/.711. 24 RBI.
Hank Greenberg (DET). .241/.327/.448. 3 3B.
HR Johnson (NYG). .372/.400/.691. 12 2B.
Willie Mays (NYG). .283/.343/.641. 21 R.
Joe Morgan (IND). .230/.396/.297. 20 BB.
Jackie Robinson (BRK). .323/.368/.515. 13 2B.
Bullet Joe Rogan (PHI). .344/.385/.885. 9 HR.
Babe Ruth (NYY). .228/.384/.608. 9 HR, 19 BB.
Chino Smith (CAG). .277/.307/.699. 9 HR, 22 R.
Turkey Stearnes (SFS). .259/.300/.635. 9 HR.
Roy White (BRK). .303/.402/.487.
Ted Williams (MEM). .434/.542/.952. 12 HR, 28 R, 32 RBI, 22 BB, 2.4 WAR.

At the other end, Los Angeles’s Dobie Moore has now struck out 55 times, 9 clear of anyone else. Moore has shown some signs of life lately, but it’s a deep hole to crawl out of.

#Pitchers

Christy Mathewson of the New York Gothams is the league’s only 5-game winner, sitting at 5-0.

#Starters

Steve Carlton (PHI). 4-1, 1.89.
Whitey Ford (NYY). 3-2, 2.25. .195 BABIP.
Dwight Gooden (LAA). 2-2, 4.41. 1.90 FIP, 1.5 WAR.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 3-1, 3.63. 54 K.
Waite Hoyt (CAG). 4-1, 2.45.
Walter Johnson (POR). 3-1, 2.37. 45 K, 0.82 WHIP, 1.74 FIP, 1.3 WAR.
Dennis Martínez (BAL). 3-1, 3.45. .178 BABIP.
Christy Mathewson (NYG). 5-0, 2.50. 48 K.
Charles Radbourn (OTT). 2-0, 1.38.
Toad Ramsey (HOU). 2-3, 3.28. 1.4 WAR.
Tom Seaver (MEM). 1-1, 1.95.
Smokey Joe Wood (KAN). 2-0, 2.78. 0.77 WHIP.

#Relievers

One more week until we actually have some decent insight into the relievers–for now, here are the 4 closers tied atop the league with 6 saves each.

Rod Beck (SFS). 1-1, 3.00. 6 Sv.
Jack Billingham (POR). 0-1, 4.00. 6 Sv.
Jonathan Papelbon (MCG). 0-0, 3.00. 6 Sv.
Brian Wilson (NYG). 0-1, 2.35. 6 Sv.

#Hardest Shots

Josh Gibson owned the week: a 124 mph solo homerun off Indianapolis‘s Luis Padrón on Saturday was the hardest ball struck by anyone, and he also had a 120 mph double and a 119 mph homerun. Gibson’s overall stats aren’t showing it yet, but the thunder in the bat is clearly still there.

The hardest out was Ted Williams‘s — a 122 mph fly ball to right.

#Injuries

The big one is Bullet Joe Rogan, out about 2 weeks — Philadelphia loses a rotation turn and a bat with 9 homeruns in one move, and he is the fourth Stars pitcher on the disabled list in 10 days. The Gothams lose Dave Righetti for about the same stretch.

Memphis swingman Len Barker and Los Angeles OF Dwight Evans both hit the DL this week as well.

Year III Season Preview: Philadelphia Stars

▌ State of the Franchise

team logo

Two years ago the Stars lost 98 games and finished dead last, an aging club going nowhere. One year later they won 87 and played in October. So, are the Stars good, or lucky, or both?

It’s not clear. This is a club that bets on the future, handing LF to a talented, but somewhat raw, 21-year-old in Sherry Magee. But it’s also a club that keeps handing PA to Rico Carty, an ageless wonder closer to 40 than not. The fans are done deliberating, and fully believe — they watched a laughingstock turn into a contender behind Aaron Judge‘s 63 home runs and Charles Rogan, a two-way rookie unlike anything the league has ever seen. They’d like more of the same, please. Now, please.

The front office is a little more skeptical, seeing a middle infield that remains unsettled, a center fielder in Willie Davis who may have cratered at 22 (despite a Gold Glove), and a host of bats yet to prove they are more than AAAA quality. So the official line is a build towards 2003.

So much depends on how the first few months of 2002 happen in Philly.

▌ 2001 Revisited

A year ago we said anything approaching .500 would be a significant step forward. Philadelphia won 87, took a Wild Card berth and lost to Houston 4-1. So, significant steps.

The best case had Rogan pairing with Steve Carlton to anchor the rotation, and Bobby Abreu and Judge both taking a step. Judge took several — 278/382/699 with 63 homers and 83 walks; and Rogan was better than anyone had a right to expect, hitting 308/362/620 while making 30 starts, and took home both the NL Rookie of the Year and the organizational MVP. Abreu never really got the chance — 90 plate appearances in Philadelphia, the rest of his year at Triple-A, and then he was traded in August. Carlton is the one who struggled: 12-13 with a 5.05 ERA and 2.26 home runs per 9. But, he did throw the second no-hitter in WBL history, and clearly has talent. The best arm was the surprising Hardie Henderson instead — 18 wins, a 3.78 ERA, 4.7 WAR.

The question we got most wrong was the infield. We asked whether the flashes from Juan Samuel and Roger Peckinpaugh would hold up over a full season, and the answer was a resounding No. Not only did those 2 not make it, César Hernández faded, Jimmy Rollins was miserable at short, and while Chase Utley eventually took over second base and won a Gold Glove there, questions remain about his future.

▌ Key Changes

In: —

Out: Sherm Lollar (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Richie Ashburn; Odúbel Herrera; Andrew Payne

▌ Best Case for 2002

The pitching was not a fluke. Philadelphia finished 4th in the league in ERA at 4.78. To repeat that, Henderson’s command needs to improve, J.M. Ward, 21, needs to reduce the number of times the ball leaves the yard, Carlton needs to progress, and Ray Collins, the one starter whose command actually beat his ERA, needs to stay healthy for a full year.

And, some questions get answered — whether it’s Magee continuing to impress, Harmon Killebrew and Jung Ho Kang either succeeding or not at the WBL level, or the middle infield pairing of Fregosi and Utley declaring itself good enough for a championship run. Any of that would help. The Stars may or may not win more games, the key is that they know more about their talent at the end of 2002.

▌ Worst Case for 2002

The worst case isn’t a collapse, it’s a shrug.

Nothing clarifies and the existing talent regresses, throwing even more into doubt. This last is a real concern: most of this rotation beat its peripherals, which is not a great sign for the future. But slippage from Judge or Bill Dickey would also hurt, throwing some of what the Stars see as settled into question.

▌ Key Questions

  • Can Rogan keep doing all of it? 187 innings across 30 starts, 521 plate appearances, including significant time in the OF. Nobody else in the league carries anything like that load, so there is nothing to measure it against — no read on what it costs him in August, or what it leaves of him at 25. And, crucially, if Rogan slips, where does Philadelphia slot him — do they value him at bat more or less than on the mound?
  • Can they avoid the AAAA trap? First base and designated hitter are being handed to 2 men whose bats have only ever done it in the minors. Kang hit 296/354/692 and then 318/367/709 at Triple-A last year, at 29 — not at all young. Killebrew is the opposite shape: 24, 35 home runs at Triple-A, but with a 229 average. We said last winter that Kang might turn out to be the epitome of a AAAA player, or might not. Still true, still unanswered.
  • What is the bullpen? Bob Howry saved 25 games with a 3.18 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP, which is a closer’s line, but he is 34 and it came in under 40 innings. The 2 arms behind him are mirror images: Fred Cambria ran a 3.04 while striking out 5.5 per 9, and Brad Kilby ran a 6.20 while striking out 9.2 per 9 and walking 1.2. One of them is getting away with something and the other is being robbed.

▌ Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CDickey · Scioscia D
1BKillebrew · Kang
2BUtley B · Helms D
SSFregosi C · Peckinpaugh
3BRolen A
LFPayne · Magee C (IL)
CFDavis F · Ashburn · Herrera
RFJudge S
DHCarty D · Rogan A
SPHenderson B · Rogan A · Carlton C · Ward C · Collins D
RPHowry A (CL) · Cambria A · Feliciano B · Melancon D · Madson

With Sherry Magee opening on the injured list, Andrew Payne gets left field on his glove.

▌ Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerSP Charles Rogan1B Prince Fielder
Batting Eye1B Harmon Killebrew1B Dolph Camilli
ContactCF Richie AshburnSS Mike Bordick
Running SpeedCF Willie Davis2B Juan Samuel
Base StealingSP Charles Rogan2B Juan Samuel; RF Gus J Williams
IF Defense3B Scott Rolen3B Merrill May
OF DefenseCF Willie DavisCF Hal Jeffcoat; RF Ryan Sweeney
StuffRP Ryan MadsonRP Chris Schroder
ControlRP Mark MelanconSP Robin Roberts
VelocityRP Bob HowryRP Matt Barnes

▌ Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (71)21SPMélido Pérez
2 (80)20SPBen Tincup

Others: P Pete Alexander, OF Harry Hooper, IF Prince Fielder, IF Luis Aparicio, P Scott Garrelts.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Richie Ashburn (41), Harmon Killebrew (65).

A year ago this list ran 10 deep. It’s down to 2, and mostly for the right reason: the farm graduated onto an 87-win roster. Bill Gatewood, Bill Dickey, Ashburn and Killebrew all made the jump, and Rogan — the 1st overall pick that 98-loss season paid for — is already the best player in the organization. LaTroy Hawkins went to Portland in the Fregosi deal. What’s left is Mélido Pérez and Ben Tincup, both arms, both a way off, and neither particularly exciting.

▌ Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeRico Carty, 38Doc Amole, 18
HeightAaron Judge, 6’7″Bill Mountjoy, 5’6″
OPSAaron Judge, 1.082Mitch Webster, 0.483 (A)
HRAaron Judge, 63Mike Bordick, 1 (AA)
SBSherry Magee, 47–
WAR (bat)Aaron Judge, 5.0Harry Hooper, -1.8
WHardie Henderson, 18–
SVMélido Pérez, 28 (A)–
ERAHardie Henderson, 3.78Pete Vuckovich, 7.37 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Hardie Henderson, 4.7Robin Roberts, -0.5

Stats across all levels, 2001. 200 PA / 75 IP min (SV: all pitchers). Non-WBL levels tagged.

WBL Year III Statistics

I needed a place to hold statistics that aren’t easily displayed in OOTP. Most of these are game-level performances.

For complete statistics, poke around on the WBL Stats Page.

Batting Statistics

2+ 3B Games

3+ 2B Games

3. Lou Gehrig (NYY); Grant Johnson (NYG); Al Kaline (DET); JD Martinez (DET); Jackie Robinson (BRK); Robin Yount (MCG).

3+ HBP Games

3. Melky Cabrera (BBB).

3+ HR Games

3. Gary Carter (OTT); Oscar Charleston (IND); Lou Gehrig (NYY); Rogers Hornsby (NYY).

3+ OF Assists

4+ BB Games

4+ CS Games

4+ Run Games

4. Oscar Charleston (IND); Roy White (BKR); Ted Williams (MEM).

4+ SB Games

5+ Hit Games

6. Rogers Hornsby (NYY).
5. Dan Brouthers (BRK); Charles Rogan (PHI).

5+ SO Games

5. Lou Gehrig (NYY); Evan Longoria (CLE).

6+ RBI Games

8. Lou Gehrig (NYY); Rogers Hornsby (NYY).
6. Gary Carter (OTT).

Cycles

Longest HRs

{ OOTP has, for a long time had a problem with surreally long HR distances. So we threw math at it–these distances are modified based on the game’s projected exit velocity, which puts a cap on how far the ball could actually travel. Far more realistic. }

510. Chuck Klein (POR).
497. Willie Mays (NYG).
495. Duke Snider (BRK); Willie Stargell (HOM).
490. Rogers Hornsby (NYY).
485. Buster Posey (NYG); Anthony Rizzo (HOD); Ted Williams (MEM).
484. Don Buford (NYG).
481. Andrew Payne (PHI).
480. Ted Williams (MEM).
475. Jim Ray Hart (NYG).
472. Eric Davis (NYY).

Pitching Statistics

80+ Game Scores

90. Whitey Ford (NYY).
89. Waite Hoyt (CAG); Mickey Welch (KAN).
88. Christy Mathewson (NYG).
87. Old Hoss Radbourn (OTT).
85. Smokey Joe Wood (KAN).
84. Steve Carlton (PHI); José Méndez (MCG).
83. Walter Johnson (POR).
82. Walter Johnson (POR); JM Ward (PHI).
81. Bill Byrd (BBB).
80. Watty Clark (SFS).

10+ Strikeout Games

16. Sid Fernandez (DET).
13. Bob Feller (CLE); Lefty Grove (SFS); Christy Mathewson (NYG); Walter Johnson (POR).
12. Lefty Gomez (BBB); Lefty Grove (SFS); Ron Guidry (NYY); Waite Hoyt (CAG); Pat Malone (CLE); Dick Redding (BRK); Jim Whitney (MCG); Smokey Joe Williams (BRK).
11. Steve Carlton (PHI); Bob Feller (CLE); Ned Garvin (BAL); Bump Hadley (SFS); Hardie Henderson (PHI); Walter Johnson (PR); Joseíto Muñoz (POR); Luis Padrón (IND); Charlie Root (DET); Bob Shawkey (KAN); Bill Steen (CLE); Smokey Joe Williams (BRK).
10. Don Drysedale (MEM); Ned Garvin (BAL); Cole Hamels (MCG); Connie Johnson (DET); Walter Johnson x2 (POR); Pat Malone (CLE); Christy Mathewson (NYG); Toad Ramsey (HOU); Sam Streeter x2 (CAG); Fernando Valenzuela (BRK); Justin Verlander (DET); Jim Whitney x2 (MCG); Smokey Joe Wood x2 (KAN); Cy Young (CLE).

8+ Walk Games

8. Hardie Henderson (PHI).

Shutouts

1 Hit. Mark Buehrle (CAG, 6 IP); Whitey Ford (NYY).
2 Hit. Old Hoss Radbourn (OTT); Mickey Welch (KAN).

Shutouts (Combined)

1 Hit. Old Hoss Radbourn / Kevin Gross / Ryan Dempster / Billy Koch (OTT).
3 Hits. David Price / Babe Adams (HOM, 7 IP); Charlie Root / Dick Donovan / Jason Frasor / Troy Percival (DET); Dave Righetti / George Jeffcoat / Vito Tamulis / Brian Wilson (NYG); Whitey Ford / Hoyt Wilhelm / Goose Gossage (NYY); Jock Menefee / Jeff Reardon / Lee Smith (KAN); Pete Donohue / Masahiro Tanaka / Kent Tekulve / Brian Wilson (NYG; 10 IP); Bump Hadley / Charlie Ferguson (SFS); Watty Clark / Joe Nathan (SFS); Waite Hoyt / AJ Minter (CAG).
4 Hits. Mel Harder / Whit Wyatt / Ron Reed / Aroldis Chapman / Terry Adams (CLE); Brett Anderson / Jimmy Key / Dellin Betances / Karl Spooner / Ed Bauta (HOD); Toad Ramsey / Jim Kern / Billy Wagner / Tug McGraw (HOU); Smokey Joe Wood / Lee Smith (KAN); Randy Johnson / Kevin Gross / BJ Ryan (OTT); Tony Brizzolara / Tony Mullane / Rheal Cormier / Goose Gossage (NYY).
5 Hits. Cy Young / Ron Reed / Cory Gearrin (CLE); Greg Maddux / Kerry Ligtenberg / Bruce Chen / Akinori Otuska / Harley Young (BBB); Waite Hoyt / Wilbur Wood / Will Smith (CAG); Joseíto Muñoez / John Wetteland (POR); Gaylord Perry / Hoyt Wilhelm (NYY).

TWIWBL 92.2: Off Season Review – Philadelphia Stars

87 - 75, .537 pct.
2nd in Effa Manley Division, 12 GB
Lost in NL WC to HOU, 4-1

Overall

What a surprising year in Philadelphia!

This is what decent pitching, solid defense, and some high end lineup slots can do for a club. Drafting the unique talents of Charles Rogan helped, too.

It’s built around Rogan, Scott Rolen, and the radical power of Aaron Judge on offense and Rogan, Hardie Henderson, and Steve Carlton on the mound.

It’s a blueprint, and there is reason for optimism that the Stars could repeat the formula next year.

The optimism comes from the fact that some Stars still have room to grow, especially when you look at how JM Ward and Ray Collins both were far, far better than their results on the mound and the looming presence of Harmon Killebrew at AAA.

The skepticism comes from Ward and Collins being unproven, from the struggles on the IF, and from the age of the squad, especially Rico Carty (who had a solid year) and Ted Kluszewski (who did not).

What Went Right

We’ve got to start with Charles “Bullet Joe” Rogan, a legitimate all-star level talent both on the mound and all over the field (Rogan played a lot of CF, but that had more to do with Willie Davis‘ struggles than anything else). Rogan slashed 308/362/620 in 520 PAs and went 12-9 with a 4.51 ERA on the mound over 30 starts. Just an amazing talent.

Aaron Judge exploded this year, with 63 homeruns and 133 RBIs, making the RF job his from here on out.

Scott Rolen continues to be one of the better 3B in the league, posting a .917 OPS and finishing second on the team with 42 homeruns.

At 38, Rico Carty continues to contribute offensively. He’s slowed down, and the power continues to dwindle, but a mid .800s OPS is serviceable in a reserve player.

Bill Dickey finally seemed to claim the C spot, posting an .827 OPS in 50ish games behind the plate. Hopes are high for his first full season.

At 21, there is time for Sherry Magee to continue to develop, for now, an .800 OPS plus 47 steals is a solid base to build on.

Chase Utley was … good enough … at 2B, flashing elite leather and providing OK offense.

ALL STARS

Hardie Henderson
Aaron Judge
Charles Rogan
MAJOR AWARDS

Willie Davis, NL CF Gold Glove
Aaron Judge, All NL Team; NL RF Silver Slugger
Charles Rogan, NL Rookie of the Year
Chase Utley, NL 2B Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONS

Fred Cambria, All NL 3rd Team; NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team
Bill Dickey, NL All Rookie Team
Hardie Henderson, All NL 3rd Team
César Hernández, NL All Rookie Team
Bob Howry, All NL 3rd Team; NL Over 30 Team
Ted Kennedy, NL 23 & Under Team
Brad Kilby, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Sherry Magee, NL 21 & Under Team
Charles Rogan, All NL 3rd Team; NL All Rookie 2nd Team (CF & P)
Scott Rolen, All NL 3rd Team
Jimmy Rollins, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
JM Ward, 21 & Under Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Charles Rogan, MVP
Hardie Henderson, Pitcher of the Year
Scott Rolen, Heart & Soul
Charles Rogan, Fan Favorite

Jack Kralick, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Jung Ho Kang, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Catching was a mess until Dickey was recalled–both Sherm Lollar and Mike Scioscia are fine as reserves, but seem overmatched as starters.

The middle infield was a mess all year. César Hernández looked like a solution, but faltered; and Jimmy Rollins was pretty miserable at SS. Eventually, Chase Utley took over, but SS remained a challenge all season.

Ted Kluszewski‘s bat seems to have slowed way down, managing only a 245/289/436 slash line.

Willie Davis earned the Gold Glove in CF, but struggled mightily at the plate, managing only a 233/282/391 slash line. Gold Glove defense can’t make up for that level of offensive performance.

There was a lot of mediocrity, but little that went downright wrong, on the mound. John Burkett and Bill Gatewood struggled in limited innings, but that’s about it. Mark Melancon‘s overall numbers are bad, but he performed quite well with the Stars.

Transactions

March

None.

July

P Larry Jackson to HOD for IF Luis Aparicio, IF Jung Ho Kang & 7th Round Pick.

It’s decent value, but at the same time, another SP would have been useful. Still, Aparicio may have a shot at the SS job and Kang hit very well (he may end up being the epitome of a AAAA player, but he may not).

August

P LaTroy Hawkins, P Dave Stieb, IF Pat Meares, P Jaret Wright, OF Bobby Abreu & 2nd Round Pick to POR for IF Rafael Palmiero, P Mark Melancon, IF Jim Fregosi, & OF Harry Hooper.

This was really 2 deals–the Abreu and Palmiero component is, or should be, pretty much a wash. The rest is interesting: Melancon was bad in Portland and excellent in Philadelphia, Hooper was horrible in Portland and worse in Philadelphia, and Fregosi might–might–solve the Stars’ SS challenge for a few years. They gave up a lot of talent but it’s all potential: if Stieb, Hawkins, and Wright all become rotation starters, it’s too much; if not, it’s a good trade.

OF George Hendrick to BRK for 3rd Round Pick.

Sure. Why not.

Positional Overview

C

Bill Dickey seems to finally be delivering on the promise that led to last year’s trade with the Black Yankees. With him set as the starter, Mike Scioscia is the most likely candidate for the backup role.

There’s not a lot of talent behind him, but perhaps Butch Wynegar or Jerry Grote may have WBL talent.

1B

This is a little uncertain, but the Stars would very much like Harmon Killebrew or Rafael Palmeiro to lay their claim in Spring Training.

Rogan can play here, of course, and both Rico Carty and Ted Kluszewski can be of use here as well.

2B

It feels like Chase Utley did enough to retain his starting spot here, especially considering the Gold Glove. César Hernández will start the season as the utility infielder, but may step in if Utley falters.

There are a couple other interesting options: Jung Ho Kang plays 2B badly, but it is a way to get his bat in the lineup, and both Luis Aparicio and Roger Peckinpaugh can fill in here as well.

SS

This is Jim Fregosi‘s job given his arrival via trade.

There were high hopes for Jimmy Rollins, but it feels like both he and Peckinpaugh have been supplanted by Aparicio in the pecking order. Much is open to be determined this Spring.

3B

No questions here: Scott Rolen all day.

Killebrew and Kang will hopefully do enough to serve as regular relief. Rogan can play here as well, as can JM Ward, although his attempts at contributing offensively have fallen short so far.

LF/RF

RF is set with Aaron Judge, and LF looks more and more like Sherry Magee, at least for now.

There’s some talent in the minors: Buck Freeman, Ed Kirkpatrick, and even the hope that Harry Hooper someday regains his form.

CF

This is a pretty puzzling situation. Willie Davis hit well last year, but collapsed offensively this year. Still, he did win the Gold Glove out there.

This might be Rogan’s most natural position, and of course he had no problem hitting.

And then there’s the upcoming talent, led by Richie Ashburn, but also including Garry Maddox, Elston Howard, and Odúbel Herrera.

DH

The Stars really hope that Killebrew or Kang show up in the Spring. If that doesn’t happen, look for Rico Carty to get the bulk of the appearances.

SP

Hardie Henderson, Charles Rogan, Steve Carlton, and JM Ward are a good quartet for the front of the rotation.

The final spot is open, as are the swing starter positions, with the competition being between Ray Collins, Ted Kennedy (transitioning from the bullpen), Robin Roberts, John Clarkson, Don Newcombe, Bill Gatewood, and perhaps young prospect Pete Alexander.

Mélido Pérez looks like a good future prospect, as does Bill Stearns.

RP

Bob Howry will start as the closer, but at 34 there are some questions about his future. Behind him, though, there are a lot of odd questions: can Mark Melancon finally settled into a franchise (he performed quite well for the Stars at the end of the season)? Can Brad Kilby and Fred Cambria improve on relatively impressive initial seasons? And does Pedro Feliciano belong in the WBL at all?

That’s the group likely to start the year, but we’ll see how that goes.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 1

The Stars could make a move for a 2B, or even a CF. But really their future is wrapped up in the continued development of their current talent.

TWIWBL 87.13: The Starters

On to the starters! Same Tier system.

This is everyone who qualified for the ERA crown, plus a heaping handful of others who made at least 10 starts during the season. If a player had less than 162 innings, they are (a) probably knocked down a tier and (b) their name is prefaced by a * and italicized.

We’ve leaned on valuing IP in these rankings, perhaps a bit too much. But these are your starters, and they need to show up, game after game. It also means the Tiers are a little different: there are D-Tier pitchers here that you would welcome at the back end of your rotation, and it’s really only some of them, and the F Tier, that are truly an issue.

Our usual practices prevail: bold for top 3 and italics for bottom 3. Pitchers with below 162 IP aren’t included in the top/bottom markers.

#S Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
NLKCMA. Rube Foster2411-83.302041.02.189 BA
.219 BABIP
0.7 HR/9
3.63 FIP
NLINDLuis Padrón2223-33.222351.04220 K
.192 BA
.225 BABIP
NLHOUToad Ramsey2316-103.232230.97282 K
.182 BA
11.4 K/9
3.8 K/BB
3.40 FIP

Just look at all that bold.

It’s been these 3 all year, and there’s a hair’s breadth between them. The analytics like Toad Ramsey, but Luis Padrón‘s record is stunning and while his ERA crown came by the absolute thinnest of margins, it did come.

Knuckleballers are always a bit unpredictable season-to-season, and it may very well be that A. Rube Foster has the best career of these three. But great things are expected of each of them.

#A Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALSFSLefty Grove2716-64.402091.15230 K
2.2 BB/9
9.9 K/9
4.4 K/BB
ALMCGJosé Méndez2313-64.532331.11201 K
2.2 BB/9
NLBRKFernando Valenzuela2414-53.691631.081 Sv; 4 H
—BBB/
MCG
Jim Whitney2410-73.832021.101 Sv; 2 H
NLBRKSmokey Joe Williams2412-133.932021.230.8 HR/9
3.55 FIP
NLKCMSmokey Joe Wood2215-124.111911.13

Lefty Grove and Smokey Joe Williams each have an argument to move up a tier, but are held back, Grove’s instance by his ERA, in Williams’ by his record. Still, they are the class of this group.

If José Méndez hadn’t led the league in innings, he would probably drop down a level, but we’re nitpicking: these are staff aces on most teams. Note that Miami, Brooklyn, and Kansas City already have 2 pitchers each on this list.

#B Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALLAABrett Anderson2211-64.341891.12
NLHOU* Ice Box Chamberlain194-43.561091.131 Sv; 1 H
NLHOURoger Clemens2517-103.712111.13
ALSFSBump Hadley2318-64.101891.180.9 HR/9
4.2 BB/9
NLPHIHardie Henderson2118-123.782091.234.2 BB/9
1.7 KK/B
NLBRKOrel Hershiser2719-53.691851.21
NLHOD* Kyle Peterson228-33.801071.16
ALNYYAndy Pettitte3318-94.432011.21
ALSFSEddie Plank2720-74.422101.31
ALCAGEd Walsh2510-113.942051.151 Sv
201 K
.225 BABIP

Hardie Henderson, Roger Clemens, and perhaps Eddie Plank (but that would be giving an awful lot of weight on 20 victories) could all be nudged up, but I’m comfortable with this. These are all front of rotation hurlers, with the only real surprise being Brett Anderson, who quietly excelled in a difficult year for Los Angeles. Ed Walsh, last year’s Rookie of the Year, avoided the sophomore slump entirely.

If you’re looking for skepticism, both Ice Box Chamberlain (due to age) and Kyle Peterson (due to coming out of nowhere) are decent bets to regress.

#C Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALPORWalter Ball268-74.261421.20
NLPHISteve Carlton2512-135.051871.24
NLINDJohnny Cueto2912-144.622121.14
NLHOM* Doug Drabek256-84.761471.171 H
NLBRKDon Drysdale2211-85.661861.28
ALLAADwight Gooden2211-114.361941.29
ALNYYRon Guidry2811-74.512081.24251 K
10.9 K/9
NLOTTRoy Halladay2915-95.171951.262.2 BB/9
ALPORWalter Johnson2013-124.282141.28
NLBRK* Sandy Koufax216-34.931191.162 H
ALMEMStubby Overmire2513-104.722121.266.1 K/9
NLNYGGaylord Perry2212-154.341891.12
NLKCMJosé Rijo268-125.091791.26
NLPHICharles Rogan2712-94.511881.24
ALCLEBill Steen2613-104.711931.331.9 K/BB
NLNYGDon Sutton2517-85.231741.25
NLPHIJM Ward206-105.011961.16

Gaylord Perry and JM Ward were perhaps the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year: a bit of good fortune, and either could be several tiers above. If anyone is ranked too highly, it’s probably Bill Steen. There are a lot of names here that could easily take a step forward–Steve Carlton, Don Drysdale, and Walter Johnson especially.

Sandy Koufax blossomed in the bullpen after losing his rotation spot, but Brooklyn is likely to try him again as a starter next season.

Joe Rogan is just a remarkable talent. Everyone else here has great value solely from being on the mound: add Rogan’s bat and … yoikes.

#D Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALMEMLen Barker2511-124.991801.44
ALSFS* Tommy Bridges376-75.381461.21
ALPORBert Blyleven2110-115.032041.32
NLKCMFrank Castillo2312-75.211931.32
ALSFS* Watty Clark266-44.021341.302 H
NLPHI* Ray Collins244-74.621211.271 H
ALCLE* Bob Feller2013-34.301531.34
NLBBB* Lefty Gomez279-94.901541.302 H
ALNYY/
CAG
Waite Hoyt2411-44.891691.444.1 BB/9
NLBRKFrank Knauss2312-64.551801.34
NLHOMFrancisco Liriano2310-125.031811.38
NLBBBGreg Maddux2310-145.351951.2859 HRA
.225 BABIP
6.50 FIP
ALBALDennis Martínez2412-85.122021.42
NLNYGChristy Mathewson227-165.612101.40207 K
ALPOR* Joseíto Muñoz204-44.561011.371 Sv; 2 H
ALBAL* Jim Palmer258-84.881381.371 H
NLBBBAlejandro Peña268-115.591801.31
NLHOMBilly Pierce3010-115.771731.36
NLHOD* Rick Reuschel308-84.611351.311 Sv; 1 H
NLHODBob Rush2411-95.281861.322 H
NLHODCC Sabathia285-155.892021.351 Sv; 1 H
64 HRA
3.2 HR/9
6.90 FIP
ALCAGBen Sheets276-125.881651.321 H
NLOTT* Bill Smith2610-33.771241.351 H
NLHOUStephen Strasburg259-105.871691.37
NLHODJack Taylor2612-105.901921.42.291 BA
6.4 K/9
ALCLECy Young2515-95.381991.39.307 BABIP

There are some absolute conundrums here. Greg Maddux‘s issues are obvious in the final column: his BABIP is top-3 in the league, showing just how good his stuff is. But he has to keep the ball in the ballpark. At least once in a while.

Christy Mathewson and Cy Young seem like they could do more than be massive inning eaters, but they need to be harder to hit to make the jump forward. But pitching is weird: Jack Taylor and Gerrit Cole (see below) were among the best on the mound last season, and struggled mightily this.

Bob Feller would warrant a bump as well with a few more solid starts.

#F Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALCAGMark Buehrle318-125.111851.386.3 K/9
ALMEM* David Bush269-96.581491.32
ALLAAGerrit Cole267-156.361661.432.9 HR/9
6.52 FIP
ALMCGCole Hamels2511-126.181781.4263 HRA
.293 BA
3.2 HR/9
3.7 K/BB
NLNYG* Carl Hubbell266-105.751601.291 H
NLHOM* Cliff Lee308-45.301141.323 H
NLHOURoy Oswalt287-116.531811.49.295 BA
.305 BABIP
NLOTTCharles Radbourn2712-135.892021.35
ALDETCharlie Root3111-106.151991.4259 HRA
ALLAATom Seaver237-85.811641.44
—BBB/
CAG
* Sam Streeter253-115.631231.34
ALPORDizzy Trout295-125.931621.504.1 BB/9
1.8 K/BB
ALDETJustin Verlander255-126.481691.52.310 BABIP
NLIND* Doc White275-126.551431.341 Sv; 3 H

Most of these issues are clear: too many homeruns, too many walks, way too many runners on the basepaths. Maybe Old Hoss Radbourn could argue to be one tier up. Maybe.

Other than that, it must be said there is a ton of talent here: Roy Oswalt, Tom Seaver, and Justin Verlander jump out as most likely to bounce back next year.

It must be said there are probably 2 dozen more names that could be listed in the F Tier. Check out the individual team maps as they are published for those, but suffice to say that, when a pitcher goes down in flames in the WBL, they burn awfully bright.

TWIWBL 84.4: NL Wild Card Round, Philadelphia Stars v Houston Colt 45’s

#Game 1, Wed Oct 3rd

The Stars opted to start Hardie Henderson over Steve Carlton for game 1; for the Colt 45’s there was no question they would turn to Toad Ramsey and his mighty knuckleball.

Sherry Magee continues to be effective as the Stars’ leadoff hitter: here he coaxed a walk from Ramsey, stole 2nd and 3rd, and scored on Jim Fregosi‘s grounder for an early 1-0 lead. It may have been wasted effort, as Aaron Judge hit one into the Crawford Boxes, giving Philadelphia a 2-0 advantage.

It was short-lived: Jim Wynn doubled and scored on a triple from Tony Gwynn. Henderson got 2 outs, but left a sinker up to Paul Goldschmidt, who sent it deep into the seats for a 3-2 edge to Houston after 1 inning.

Ramsey seemed to settle down, but Houston continued its onslaught against Henderson, with George Brett going deep in the 2nd and Goldschmidt, after an error by Scott Rolen put Jeff Bagwell on base, hit his 2nd of the day, making it 6-2.

A single from Pete Hill leading off the 4th chased Henderson, but Robin Roberts escaped the inning without additional damage.

The Stars put runners on 2nd and 3rd (a walk to Chase Utley and a Magee double) with 1 out in the 5th. Ramsey walked in a run, but Philadelphia would be sad not to take greater advantage of the situation. Roberts continued to be effective, and we ended 5 with Houston ahead, 6-3.

Houston got some insurance in the bottom of the 8th as Hill laced a 2 run double, scoring 2 and increasing the score to 8-3.

Philadelphia had their chances, leaving 10 runners on base in the contest, but in the end–in what can only be seen as a good sign for the Colt 45’s–Andrew Chafin, Roberto Osuna, Tug McGraw, and Sparky Lyle combined for 4 scoreless innings in relief of Ramsey.

Goldschmidt was the clear star for Houston, driving in 4, but Carlos Correa and Hill chipped in 2 hits apiece. Magee and Rogan had 2 hits for the Stars.

Houston up, 1-0.

PHI 3 (Henderson 0-1) @ HOU 8 (Ramsey 1-0; Chafin 1 H; Osuna 1 H; McGraw 1 H)
HRs: PHI – Judge (1); Goldschmidt 2 (2), Brett (1).
Box Score

#Game 2, Thu 4 Oct

Philadelphia would turn to Steve Carlton, trying to even out the series against Houston’s Roger Clemens.

Once again Aaron Judge went deep in the opening frame, this time with a solo shot. The Stars scored a second on an RBI single from Rico Carty, meaning, for the 2nd consecutive game, Philadelphia leads 2-0 before Houston comes to bat.

The script diverged there, however briefly: the Colt 45’s cut the deficit in half on a solo shot from Jeff Bagwell in the 2nd. In the 3rd, a leadoff walk to Craig Biggio was followed by a double in the right field corner by Jim Wynn. Tony Gwynn launched a ball to left, forcing a nice diving catch from Sherry Magee, but it was more than enough for Biggio to trot home. But the Colt 45’s weren’t done: Carlos Correa hit an RBI single and then Bagwell launched his 2nd of the game, giving Houston a 5-2 lead.

Carlton lasted 5, Clemens 6, with neither pitching particularly well, turning the game over to the shakiest parts of each bullpen.

Houston seemed to blink first, as John Franco gave up singles to Ted Kluszewski and Bill Dickey to start the 7th. But a pop to short center and a good throw by Jorge Posada to nail Dickey’s attempt to steal second seemed to offer an avenue out. But Franco allowed singles to Magee and Chase Utley, narrowing the lead to 5-4 and fetching Jim Kern from Houston’s bullpen. Kern induced a flyout from Charles Rogan, maintaining the single run advantage for the Colt 45’s.

And this is what Houston had envisioned: Tug McGraw shut it down before yielding to Sparky Lyle to close it out, giving the Colt 45’s a 2-0 edge in the series.

Bagwell’s 2 homeruns were key, of course, but so were Posada’s erasing 2 runners attempting to steal.

It was another game of missed opportunities for Philadelphia, who outhit Houston 11-5 in the contest. 3 of those came from Judge, who is 4-for-8 across the 2 games. The Stars’ bullpen did well, with Brad Kilby, Fred Cambria, and Ted Kennedy combining for 3 frames without giving up a hit.

PHI 4 (Carlton 0-1) @ HOU 5 (Clemens 1-0; Lyle 1 Sv; McGraw 2 H; Kern 1 H; Franco 1 H)
HRs: PHI – Judge (2); Bagwell 2 (2).
Box Score

#Game 3, Sat Oct 6

We head to Philadelphia with something of a must-win game for the Stars, who will turn to the magnificent Charles Rogan, while Houston will counter with Ice Box Chamberlain.

Rogan balked in a run in the top of the first, but escaped a flurry of baserunners without further damage.

Aaron Judge did not hit a homerun in the opening frame, but he did drive in a run with a single, and later scored on a 3-run opposite drive by Jim Fregosi, putting the Stars up 4-1 after 1.

Then both hurlers settled down, and the score was unchanged through 5 innings. Jeff Bagwell took Rogan deep in the 6th, and when that was followed by a walk to Paul Goldschmidt, JM Ward was summoned from the Philadelphia bullpen. Ward retired Pete Hill, and the Stars still led, 4-2.

Judge was not to be denied, hitting one out of the park after Rogan was hit by a pitch. Fregosi followed with his 2nd of the day, chasing Chamberlain who gave up only 4 hits, but 8 runs.

Judge would add another, and Bill Dickey would go deep as well in what turned out to be a bit of walkover, 10-2 in favor of the Stars. Judge drove in 4 and Fregosi 5 on the day as Philadelphia corrected their errors of the first 2 games scoring 10 runs on 6 hits and leaving only a single runner on base.

HOU 2 (Chamberlain 0-1) @ PHI 10 (Rogan 1-0; Ward 1 H)
HRs: HOU – Bagwell (3); PHI – Fregosi 2 (2), Judge 2 (4), Dickey (1).
Box Score

#Game 4, Sun Oct 7

Game 4 presents challenges for each team’s pitching staffs.

For Houston, Stephen Strasburg‘s solid performances down the stretch earned him the start, while Philadelphia will counter with their ace, Hardie Henderson, fully rested after a very short appearance in game 1.

Henderson started well, but walked 3 batters to start the top of the 2nd. George Brett doubled home 2 runs and another scored on a groundout from Jim O’Rourke. Pete Hill tripled home another run and scored on a sacrifice fly from Paul Goldschmidt, making it 5-0.

Chase Utley took Strasburg deep with Willie Davis on 2nd in the 3rd, closing the gap to 5-2.

A leadoff single from Craig Biggio chased Henderson, bringing in Robin Roberts. Bill Dickey whipped Roberts first strike to first, catching Biggio leaning the wrong way–something that may matter, as Jim Wynn followed with a homerun. Houston now led, 6-2–we’ll see if that extra run comes back to haunt them.

Scott Rolen went deep in the bottom of the 4th. 6-3. Doubles from Dickey and Sherry Magee plated another run in the 5th. 6-4.

But Tony Gwynn singled in 2 runs in the 6th to restore the cushion, making it 8-4, Houston.

A 1 out walk to Rolen in the 6th chased Strasburg after a decent enough effort, but Andrew Chafin was able to escape unscathed. The 7th did not go as well for Chafin, who gave up opening singles to Davis and Utley. In came Jim Kern, who induced a double play from Magee and a sharp grounder to short from Charles Rogan, preserving the lead.

But in the 8th, Jim Fregosi came through with a 2-run shot, cutting the lead in half, 8-6.

Philadelphia’s bullpen sort of imploded in the 9th: Bagwell doubled and scored on a single by Hill, who scored on a double by Goldschmidt. Wynn then drew a bases loaded walk, and Gwynn singled in 2 more runs. The 5 run explosion made it 13-6, Houston.

Philadelphia had some baserunners, but it came to naught, and Houston took a commanding 3-1 lead in the series.

Brett and Gwynn had 3 hits each with Gwynn, now hitting .353 in the series, driving in 4 runs on the day.

The bottom of the Stars’ order came to play, with Dickey, Davis, and Utley each having 2 hits.

HOU 13 (Strasburg 1-0, Kern 2 H, McGraw 3 H) @ PHI 6 (Henderson 0-2)
HRs: HOU – Wynn (1); PHI – Utley (1), Rolen (1), Fregosi (3).
Box Score

#Game 5, Mon Oct 8

Perhaps surprisingly, the first team with a chance to clinch their spot in the Division Series is the Houston Colt 45’s. The stellar Toad Ramsey gets the ball for Houston, while the Stars will turn to Ray Collins.

Jeff Bagwell singled in a run in the top of the first, and then Paul Goldschmidt launched a ball deep into the OF. An odd bounce and a poor throw later, and Goldschmidt had an inside-the-park homerun and Houston had a 3-0 edge.

Ramsey started a bit rough giving up singles to Sherry Magee, Aaron Judge, and Scott Rolen to score 1 and a 2-out double to Charles Rogan, resetting the game in a tie. Houston nudged ahead again when George Brett, who had tripled, scored on an RBI groundout from Jorge Posada.

And then both pitchers remembered how to pitch: the score remained 4-3, Houston, through 6 innings, which marked the end of Collins’ day.

Bagwell greeted Brad Kilby with a solo shot in the top of the 8th, extending the lead to 5-3. Houston brought in Jim Kern for the 8th, and he struck out 2, preserving the 2 run advantage, and then they padded it, scoring 3 in the top of the 9th (2 on Carlos Correa‘s first homerun of the series).

The Colt 45’s brought in Sparky Lyle with a 5 run edge, leading 8-3. Rico Carty and Rogan whiffed, bringing Philadelphia to their last batter, catcher Bill Dickey … a hard groundball, fielded by Correa, rifled to first. And Houston is through to the Division Series!

Bagwell, Gwynn, Brett, and Posada each had 2 hits for the Colt 45’s.

HOU 8 (Ramsey 2-0) @ PHI 3 (Collins 0-1)
HRs: HOU – Goldschmidt (3), Bagwell (4), Correa (1); PHI – none.
Box Score

Bagwell, who hit .300 with 4 homeruns, was named Series MVP, but Goldschmidt and Gwynn deserved consideration as well. And, perhaps most importantly for Houston, Tug McGraw, Sparky Lyle, Jim Kern, and Andrew Chafin combined for over 10 innings of scoreless work out of the bullpen.

Aaron Judge (.421 with 4 homeruns and 6 RBIs) also deserved at least cursory MVP consideration.

TWIWBL 84.3: NL Playoff Previews

Again, in seeding order.

#Brooklyn Royal Giants

Sailing under the radar for most of the season, Brooklyn still managed 99 victories, led by a ridiculously strong pitching staff.

The Royal Giants are one of the a very few teams with a legitimate top 4, and it’s unclear if Don Drysdale‘s 2nd half resurgence earns him a start in the opening game, given that Orel Hershiser (19-5, 3.69), Smokey Joe Williams (12-13, 3.93), and Fernando Valenzuela (14-5, 3.69) each had better seasons than Drysdale’s 11-8, 5.66 record.

The bullpen sports 2 of the dominant relievers of the league, with closer Eric Gagne and setup man Trevor Hildenberger, and Burleigh Grimes and Sandy Koufax provide excellent middle inning help when needed.

The offense is a notch below the pitching: Ron Cey and Mike Piazza are stars, and Dan Brouthers, John Briggs, Jackie Robinson, Beals Becker, and Duke Snider are all quite good. Vern Stephens and Dickie Thon seem to be sufficient at SS, and the versatility of Ray Dandridge helps around the IF, despite his lackluster offense.

George Hendrick has been lights out since being brought over in a trade, and makes the playoff roster ahead of swing starter Jim Bunning.

#Philadelphia Stars

Quite a turnaround for Philly, who were horrible last year, mediocre much of this year, and then turned it on the final few months to finish in 2nd place in the Effa Manley Division.

It’s an odd team in many ways. Clearly, Charles Rogan and his unique combination of a 308/362/620 slash line and legitimate #2 starter mound performances count for a lot, as does Aaron Judge breaking out with an OPS over 1.000, 63 homers, 133 RBI’s, and 108 runs scored. Scott Rolen is excellent at 3B, and Rico Carty held off the demons of age for another productive season.

And then the question marks start … Bill Dickey seems to be the answer behind the plate, but is untested, Sherry Magee could be useful, and the newly acquired Jim Fregosi might finally provide some stability at SS. Seems, could be, might …

The rotation is … odd. Hardie Henderson (18-12, 3.78) is probably the #1, but Steve Carlton‘s stuff is electric, despite a 12-13 record and a 5.05 ERA. Then, Rogan. Behind those, JM Ward has been far, far, far better than his 6-10 record would indicate and lefty Ray Collins is dependable.

Bob Howry, Ted Kennedy, Fred Cambria, and Pedro Feliciano form a solid, no-name bullpen (with trade acquisition Mark Melancon‘s selection to the postseason roster in doubt).

In the end, Melancon made it, as did the disappointing Harry Hooper, but that was more a function of a lack of relevant alternatives than anything else.

#Houston Colt 45’s

Most saw this Houston team as being a year or 2 away, but they kept winning through the Summer, and ended up topping the Marvin Miller Division by a comfortable margin.

The pitching staff is not structured as it was to start the season, as both Stephen Strasburg and Roy Oswalt have struggled mightily all season. Still, it’s a strong opening trio, led by the dominant Toad Ramsey (16-10, 3.23) and Roger Clemens (17-10, 3.71) and the now-healthy Ice Box Chamberlain (4-4, 3.56).

The bullpen has been poor all season, with Sparky Lyle (brought over to be the closer) struggling and Tug McGraw having his issues as well. Jim Kern has been a surprising bright spot, and Andrew Chafin and Roberto Osuna have been solid enough.

The offense is an intriguing mix. Carlos Correa, Jeff Bagwell, and Tony Gwynn are a solid core and Paul Goldschmidt has forced his way into the conversation in about 1/3 of a season’s work. Gentleman Jim O’Rourke has bounced back from a poor first season, and the rest of the pieces–mostly Jim Wynn and teenage phenom Pete Hill–are solid enough.

The worst news for Houston is that C Will Smith, who has absolutely destroyed WBL pitching since his recall, is not eligible for the postseason, putting the onus behind the plate on Jorge Posada, who has struggled. Given the presence of Gorman Thomas–who has also been on fire in limited action–we may see O’Rourke catching more than anticipated.

Thomas’ performance forced Casey Stengel off the playoff roster, as, especially with Dock Ellis injured for a few days, both Strasbourg and Oswalt made it.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

It came down to a playoff, but baseball fans are happy to see the ABC’s make the playoffs, as it extends the season for the best pitcher in baseball, Luis Padrón, and the emerging superstar Oscar Charleston.

The postseason likely brings an end to Indianapolis’ 6 man rotation, as the team will try to maximize the starts for Padrón (23-3, 3.22) and Johnny Cueto (12-14, 4.62). Eppa Rixey, Guy White, and Joe Lake are the most likely candidates behind those 2.

The back end of the bullpen was supposed to be a strength, but both Rob Dibble and Rob Murphy have struggle of late, leaving Jack Billingham and the surprising Mike LaCoss as the strongest performers at the moment.

Offensively, this is Charleston’s team, with the young CF slashing 337/381/619 with 38 homers, 130 RBIs, and 101 runs scored. Joey Votto and George Foster have been excellent and while Johnny Bench fell short of last year’s heights, 46 homers and 116 RBIs from behind the plate is nothing to sneeze at.

Chris Sabo has mostly displaced Ed Charles at 3B, but the biggest issue is the absence of Joe Morgan, who will miss the postseason through injury. Morgan was among the best in the game, and without him, the middle infield becomes pretty mediocre, relying on Tommy Helms and Barry Larkin.

#Predictions

Brooklyn is just that much better than Indianapolis across the board, so I think the Royal Giants take that one, 4-2.

The Houston/Philadelphia series is even harder to predict, and I think it is either very close, going the full 7 games, or Houston’s offense clicks on all cylinders and the Colt 45’s win in 5. Let’s say the former, with Houston edging it in a final contest.

TWIWBL 75.5: Effa Manley Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Brooklyn Royal Giants60-43.583—
Homestead Grays55-49.5295.5
Ottawa Mounties51-53.4909.5
Philadelphia Stars51-54.48610
New York Gothams51-55.48110.5
Effa Manley Division | 30 July

#Brooklyn Royal Giants

Looking to cement their bullpen for the stretch run, the Royal Giants sent the struggling Dutch Leonard to AAA in exchange for Jim Bunning.

While all three players will continue to see a lot of time there, it looks like recently acquired Vern Stephens will see the bulk of the time at SS, with Germany Smith slipping below Ray Dandridge in the pecking order.

Stephens has been quite strong for Brooklyn, and he helped Don Drysdale continue his recent resurgence with 2 dingers in a 10-2 victory over Kansas City. Drysdale improved to 10-4, and John Briggs, Beals Becker, Mike Piazza, and Jackie Robinson also went deep for Brooklyn.

Becker and Robinson each went deep twice as Brooklyn defeated Ottawa, 8-7.

#Homestead Grays

Brickyard Kennedy continues to ride the AAA shuttle, heading down as the Grays need a starter in the form of Bob Knepper, who will make his WBL debut. Knepper wasn’t great, but he did get the win as Willie Stargell hit 2 out and the Grays pounded the House of David, 13-4.

Stargell hit another 2, the second a walk-off job in the bottom of the 11th as the Grays again topped the House of David, 8-7.

Bartolo Colón‘s great start to his WBL career was derailed momentarily, with the young righty headed to the DL for about a week. Homestead recalled lefty Gary Lucas in the interim.

#New York Gothams

Vean Gregg was returned to AAA with Rube Waddell being recalled from a rehab assignment.

The revolving door at 3B continues, as the Gothams brought Jim Ray Hart up from AAA, giving up for the time being on Ryan Zimmerman.

Don Buford went deep twice, but the Gothams bullpen–the strength of the club–collapsed entirely in an 8-6 loss to the Stars.

Will Clark went deep twice, but the Gothams fell to Birmingham, 7-6 in a close contest. Willie Mays hit his 37th of the season as well.

#Ottawa Mounties

Bill Smith will miss about a week, earning himself a trip to the DL with the Mounties recalling Danny Cox.

Larry Walker came out of a slump in a big way, going 4-for-4 with 2 homeruns, 4 runs scored, and 3 RBI’s to give him 100 on the year. Roberto Alomar also had 4 hits and Gary Carter, Adrián Beltré, and Carlos Beltrán each went deep as well.

Clark Griffith was sent to AAA in exchange for Randy Johnson, who will get a spot start after some effective time at in the minors.

#Philadelphia Stars

Steve Carlton threw the second no-hitter in WBL history as the Stars topped the Gothams, 5-0. Carlton, who improved his record to 10-9, only walked 1 while fanning 8 in the dominant performance. Rico Carty hit a grand slam in support of Lefty.

Aaron Judge hit a walkoff grand slam, leading the Stars to an 8-6 win over the Gothams.

John Burkett was sent to AAA with young Pete Alexander recalled after a long term injury.

TWIWBL 74.5: Effa Manley Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Brooklyn Royal Giants55-41.573—
Homestead Grays53-44.5462.5
New York Gothams50-50.5007
Philadelphia Stars48-51.4858.5
Ottawa Mounties47-51.4809
Effa Manley Division | 23 July

#Homestead Grays

Moose Haas was returned to AAA with Bartolo Colón being recalled to the Grays’ bullpen. Cliff Lee will miss up to a couple weeks with a stiff back, earning the lefty hurler a trip to the DL. Hal Carlson was recalled.

Josh Gibson bust out of a mini-slump in a big way, going deep twice and driving in 5, bringing him over 100 RBI’s on the season. But Pops Stargell was the star, following an RBI double from Gibson with a walkoff 3-run shot in the bottom of the 9th in an 11-9 win over Kansas City.

#New York Gothams

Johnny Callison hit 2 out, but it wasn’t enough as the Gothams fell to Houston, 8-3. Different day, same story: Buster Posey had 2 homers in a 7-4 loss to Brooklyn.

#Philadelphia Stars

Aaron Judge hit 2 out and Charles Rogan was a single short of the cycle as the Stars beat Birmingham, 9-7. Despite some struggles, Hardie Henderson improved to 12-7 on the year, with Bob Howry picking up his 14th save.

Chase Utley had himself a day: 2 homers, 4 runs, and 5 hits in a 12-5 win over Birmingham. Judge and Rico Carty also went deep as Steve Carlton evened his record at 9-9. Utley did it again later in the week with 2 more homers, but this time the Stars fell to Ottawa, 9-5.

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