Baseball The Way It Never Was

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TWIWBL 90.1: Off Season Review – Los Angeles Angels

74 - 88, .457 pct.
3rd in Cum Posey Division, 29 GB

Overall

This is a franchise in a bit of crisis, struggling to figure out how to build a team around not one, but two, legitimate MVP candidates in Mike Trout and Kal Daniels. Right now, though, that’s all the Angels have–there is some potential on the mound, but Gerrit Cole‘s disastrous fall from last season’s heights is a reminder of how precarious that can be.

It’s just not clear how the Angels get out of the rut of mediocrity at this point, although if you squint you could convince yourself the pitching will come around and there are enough bit pieces around the two superstars–certainly the mid-season acquisition of Freddie Freeman helps in that regard.

What Went Right

Kal Daniels & Mike Trout were each incredible, combining for 79 homeruns, 81 doubles, 100 SB, 213 RBIs, and 217 runs scored. Just incredible output and with Daniels being 24 and Trout 22, the futures look bright.

Freddie Freeman finally found a home, and immediately began hitting at the same level as Daniels and Trout over about 30 games.

Carlos Delgado keeps rolling along, with the 32 year old veteran leading the team with 44 homeruns and decent secondary numbers.

Between Gene Tenace and Ron Hassey, the long nightmare at catcher may be finally solved for the Angels (but they’ve thought this before as well).

Similarly, Eddie Joost‘s power may have laid a claim to the role at SS and Bill Doran‘s bat may have earned him the 2B spot, although both need to perform well this Spring to cement those positions.

On the mound, Brett Anderson was a revelation, finishing 11-6 with a 4.34 ERA and an excellent 1.12 WHIP. Anderson made 31 starts and seems a lock to lead the rotation.

Doc Gooden was better than an 11-11 pitcher. His floor is a 180+ innings eater, and his ceiling is much, much higher.

Roy Patterson and Ross Reynolds were totally unheralded coming into the season and each were excellent, with Patterson likely moving into the rotation next season. Similarly, Julio Teheran, used in relief all year, may be asked to join the starters.

Elmer Smith hit poorly and pitched better than his 4-5, 6.45 numbers would indicate. He has a semi-realistic shot at contributing both on the mound and in LF. But now we’re moving into what didn’t go badly as opposed to what went well.

ALL STARS

Bobby Grich (subsequently traded)
Doc Gooden
MAJOR AWARDS

Ichiro Suzuki: AL RF Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONS

Brett Anderson, All AL 3rd Team; AL 23 & Under Team
Kal Daniels, All AL 2nd Team; AL All-Rounder 2nd Place
AJ Pierzynski, AL Rookie 2nd Team of the Year
Ross Reynolds, All AL 2nd Team; AL Rookie Team of the Year
Tom Seaver, AL Rookie 2nd Team of the Year
Elmer Smith, AL Rookie Team of the Year
Ichiro Suzuki, AL Rookie 2nd Team of the Year
Julio Teheran, AL 23 & Under Team
Mike Trout, Mel Trench Award 3rd Place; All AL 3rd Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Mike Trout, MVP
Brett Anderson, Pitcher of the Year
Carlos Delgado, Heart & Soul
Kal Daniels, Fan Favorite

Luke Walker, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Pedro Álvarez, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Most notably, Gerrit Cole imploded, going 7-15 with an ERA well over 6. Cole was the staff ace last season.

The wealth of SP talent continues to not deliver, from Tom Seaver and Pud Galvin–thoroughly mediocre as a full time starter–to the parade of arms given a shot from Nolan Ryan to Harry Howell, Noah Lowry to Bill Doak to John Lackey to … you get the idea.

Francisco Rodríguez, given the job after Joe Nathan was traded, was among the worst closers in the league.

C was a misery for most of the year, with John Stearns, Jeff Torborg, and AJ Pierzynski all stinking up the joint (Pierzynski’s rookie recognition was more due to how few rookie backstops there were than anything else).

Nobody played SS well, with George Wright, Jay Bell, and Freddie Patek all given a shot.

Ichiro Suzuki played in 140 games as a rookie, with stellar defense, but only managed a .688 OPS with little power and virtually zero plate discipline (7 walks total).

Doug Rader, a borderline MVP candidate last year, became a shockingly pedestrian 3B.

Steve Garvey continues to be a mediocre bat without a clear position in the field.

Transactions

March

None.

July

OF Don Buford to NYG for IF Freddie Patek, 2nd Round Pick, & 5th Round Pick.

Sure, as long as the picks are solid. Buford wasn’t going to be here when the Angels turn things around, so it’s a solid haul.

August

IF Bobby Grich & 3rd Round Pick to BBB for C Gene Tenace, P Vic Willis, & 1st Round Pick.

Grich is an all star, but the return is high, with both Tenace and Willis looking to be contributors. We’ll see about the 1st rounder, but it seems like a solid trade.

P Joe Nathan, IF Wally Joyner, 1st Round Pick to SFS for IF Eddie Miller, IF Freddie Freeman.

Given Freeman’s debut, this seems like a win, even if the 1st round pick turns into something (and especially given that Los Angeles still has one from the Grich trade).

Positional Overview

C

Maybe, just maybe, this is settled with Hassey and Tenace. Maybe.

The Angels are still high on John Stearns but there’s not a lot of evidence as to why.

1B

This looks, finally, to be solved with Freeman’s arrival, who will be spelled by Delgado (who is more suited to DH as he ages).

Steve Garvey seems better suited for this side of the infield, but he is now blocked by Freeman. Babe Herman may get a look here in the Spring as well.

2B

Wide open.

Bill Doran and Mark Ellis are the favorites here, but Jay Bell and Freddie Patek–while more natural at SS–can both play here, and veteran Bucky Harris may have performed well enough to get a look.

This is likely to be resolved in ST or via a trade.

SS

Eddie Joost and Jay Bell will likely fight this one out, with the defensive wizardry of George Wright and Andrelton Simmons looming in the background.

Xander Bogaerts is a dark horse here as well, and at 24 is getting to the point of needing to hit a WBL roster soon.

3B

Doug Rader should get a chance to bounce back, and Garvey is occasionally useful here, but this still looks like an area where improvement is needed.

That could come from David Wright or Pedro Álvarez, who should start the year at AAA.

LF/RF

Pretty much set with Daniels and Suzuki, whose struggles will be written off to an adjustment year. Elmer Smith will see some time here as well.

Curt Motton may be available for depth, and Brandon Nimmo is probably the best lower level corner OF prospect at this point.

CF

Trout should patrol here for quite a while, with the Angels faced with the question of what kind of backup they prefer: Brian Giles is solid offensively, while Devon White can chase them down with the best of them.

Jack Gleason (miserable in a WBL trial this year) and Albie Pearson offer some depth as well.

DH

Delgado should transition to a full time (or nearly so) DH next season.

SP

Brett Anderson and Gooden are a lock, and Cole will be given another year to see whether last year’s great season or this year’s bad one is more indicative of his future.

Beyond that, it’s open season, with Harry Howell, Vic Willis, Elmer Smith, Mike Krukow, Bill Doak, Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, and Luke Walker all in the mix.

RP

You Could add Roy Patterson, Pud Galvin, and Julio Teheran to the list of starting candidates, but those three are likely to make the bullpen regardless, along with Ross Reynolds.

The team seems committed to giving Francisco Rodríguez another shot at closing games.

Two more interesting names: Chuck Finley and Jonny Venters are both likely fully recovered come Spring Training, and either or both could make the team.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 2
3rd Round: 0
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 2

They just need talent. Yeah, LF/CF/1B are sewn up for a while, but they just need talent.

TWIWBL 88.3: Rookie Teams of the Year

Two teams per league, with preference given to more playing time this year over future potential. No DH.

#WBL All Rookie First Team

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CTom Haller (BAL)Bill Dickey (PHI)
1BJimmie Foxx (SFS)Joe Harris (KCM)
2BCharlie Gehringer (DET)César Hernández (PHI)
SSCal Ripken Jr (BAL)Judy Johnson (HOM)
3BAndy Pafko (BBB/MCG)Chris Sabo (IND)
LFJuan Beníquez (DET)Adam Dunn (IND)
CFTurkey Stearnes (SFS)John Briggs (BRK)
RFAl Kaline (DET)George Foster (IND)
SPJim Whitney (BBB/MCG)
Bump Hadley (SFS)
Walter Ball (POR)
A. Rube Foster (KCM)
Smokey Joe Williams (BRK)
Fernando Valenzuela (BRK)
RPAndrew Miller (MEM)
Ross Reynolds (LAA)
Elmer Smith (LAA)
Eddie Guardado (KCM)
Karl Spooner (HOD)
Mike Kume (KCM)

Rookies are interesting.

We run the full gamut here, from the MVP possibilities of Turkey Stearnes to players who ended the year in the minors, or, like César Hernández, project as fringe players at best. Tom Haller, Juan Beníquez, and Joe Harris are all on the wrong side of 30.

The spread of talent makes some comparisons misleading: you would much rather be San Francisco with Jimmie Foxx, Stearnes, and Bump Hadley than Indianapolis with Chris Sabo, Adam Dunn, and George Foster.

#WBL All Rookie Second Team

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CAJ Pierzynski (LAA)Dick Dietz (NYG)
1BDavid Ortiz (MEM)JP Arencibia (BBB)
2BFrank Grant (HOD/SFS)Craig Reynolds (HOD)
SSDobie Moore (MEM)Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
3BFreddie Lindstrom (CAG)Josh Donaldson (OTT)
LFRocky Colavito (CAG)Elliott Maddox (NYY/HOU)
CFJulio Rodríguez (MCG)Charles Rogan (PHI)
RFIchiro Suzuki (LAA)Sam Thompson (OTT)
SPTony Brizzolara (NYY)
Tom Seaver (LAA)
Kenshin Kawakami (MCG)
Charles Rogan (PHI)
Ice Box Chamberlain (HOU)
Kyle Peterson (HOD)
RPFirpo Marberry (CLE)
Skel Roach (MEM)
Billy Hoeft (DET)
Brad Kilby (PHI)
Mike LaCoss (IND)
Fred Fussell (BBB)

Note Bullet Joe Rogan‘s well warranted appearance at 2 positions.

David Ortiz, Julio Rodríguez, Rogan, and Ice Box Chamberlain were the class of this group. Those 4, Frank Grant, Dobie Moore, Freddie Lindstrom, Ichiro Suzuki, and Tom Seaver are the most likely to be future stars–that’s a lot of potential over there in the American League.

TWIWBL 87.16: The Gold Gloves

We previewed the Gold Gloves in August, but now it’s time to do the real thing, one per position per league. We’ll go through them first, then list the award recipients at the end.

I do believe in defense mattering over time, as such, we’re using an 800 IP minimum for the GG awards. For each position, we’re listing the top 3 in each league, AL followed by NL.

We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

Outfielders also have Assists (A), more romantically referred to as Outfield Kills are runners eliminated on the bases and Arm Runs (AR), which measures the net runs gained on an outfielder’s throws, including runner advancements.

Finally, catchers, who are really their own thing, also have RTO% (the percentage of runners thrown out trying to steal, abbreviated as RT), PB (passed balls), Framing Runs (the number of runs gained by the catcher’s positioning), and cERx, which reflects the ERA while the catcher was behind the plate compared to the overall staff ERA. A cERx below 1 means the catcher was better than the rest of the staff, above 1, worse.

#C

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEffRTPBcERxFR
NLINDJohnny Bench1144.9959.31.31.1936111.037
HODElrod Hendricks923.9948.33.81.144091.015
NYGBuster Posey1095.9968.90.41.003580.9610
ALPORJoe Mauer1103.9969.53.51.043961.015
NYYThurman Munson1122.9959.82.31.003550.964
MCGIván Rodríguez1104.9989.85.71.0546170.982

So, what is a catcher’s primary duty? Helping their staff, controlling the running game, and then, a somewhat distant third, making their own defensive plays.

The choice in the AL is pretty obvious, in the NL, I think it comes down to how much do you weigh Posey’s ability to frame pitches, and his ~150 more innings played than Hendricks.

#1B

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEff
NLKCMBoog Powell1105.9969.13.41.02
HODAnthony Rizzo828.9958.70.81.02
INDJoey Votto10721.0008.45.11.04
ALDETHank Greenberg1159.9968.32.51.02
PORKent Hrbek1007.9958.61.31.03
MEMBill White886.9939.10.51.01

Again, one choice is pretty clear–the NL this time.

In the AL, it’s much closer, but Greenberg makes some plays that Hrbek just doesn’t.

#2B

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEff
NLKCMRobinson Canó1134.9904.611.01.06
BBBCupid Childs1022.9834.57.31.09
PHIChase Utley1173.9944.913.71.07
ALDETCharlie Gehringer971.9894.9-10.70.94
BALMiller Huggins923.9874.310.81.10
MCGCookie Rojas877.9934.4-3.30.97

These are two relatively easy choices. And, there is a question of what’s going on in the AL, where almost everyone has a negative ZR.

#SS

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEff
NLNYGBrandon Crawford1046.9664.211.41.07
INDBarry Larkin911.9754.79.01.07
KCMOzzie Smith1188.9924.712.21.06
ALSFSDick Lundy934.9874.510.81.06
CAGFreddy Parent952.9785.013.61.06
CLEArky Vaughan1143.9824.213.41.09

In the NL, it’s another clear choice: while Smith and Crawford both make the sensational plays, Smith makes all the plays.

The AL is much, much closer and there’s really not much to choose from between Parent and Vaughan. As such, we’ll go with the player who stayed on the field more.

#3B

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEff
NLOTTAdrián Beltré1055.9742.6-0.81.00
BRKRon Cey1138.9752.56.01.03
PHIScott Rolen1155.9702.35.01.06
ALPORBuddy Bell1169.9682.58.01.05
CLEEvan Longoria1148.9632.24.81.04
NYYMike Schmidt1140.9582.45.31.03

The hot corner is a challenge: everyone makes 2, 2 1/2 plays a game, so RF is less useful, although Beltré’s 2.6 does stand out, as does Longoria’s more limited mobility. But it means fPct–as a proxy for errors–and dEff rise in importance. In the AL, while it’s not by a mile, I think Bell is the clear choice while in the AL, it ends up being between Cey and Rolen, with the final edge going to The Penguin.

#LF

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEffAAR
NLINDBob Bescher839.9891.9-4.80.962-2.8
PHISherry Magee839.9941.74.81.041-2.3
BRKRoy White1152.9921.910.31.076-1.0
ALCLEJohnny Bates1018.9782.08.81.064-1.3
SFSRickey Henderson1202.9821.612.21.183-3.6
BALFrank Robinson996.9901.80.21.005-2.2

The AR numbers reflect just how hard it is to prevent runners from advancing on flyballs, and makes Jim Wynn‘s 3.7 mark there all the more remarkable. Unfortunately, the rest of Wynn’s numbers leave him out of the finalists entirely.

The NL is an easy choice, and one that gives us a repeat winner in Roy White. Over in the Al, it’s harder, but Bates makes more plays and has a far better arm than Henderson, despite how much ground the Sea Lions’ speedster covers.

#CF

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEffAAR
NLOTTCarlos Beltrán1045.9822.99.51.0610-1.0
PHIWillie Davis1035.9882.916.31.104-2.8
NYGWillie Mays1214.9892.814.51.054-4.7
ALBALPaul Blair935.9862.711.81.093-2.6
CLETris Speaker1047.9822.810.01.069-2.4
SFSTurkey Stearnes1027.9792.87.41.055-4.7

Assists can be misleading: Detroit’s Chili Davis gunned down 14 runners and Kansas City’s Willie McGee 11, but they, overall, just weren’t effective enough out there to warrant their inclusion. Remember, the weaker the arm, the more often it gets run on, the more chances for assists you may get.

Look, Willie Mays is a great defensive CF. But Willie Davis, simply, had a better year out there. In the AL, you can only unseat Paul Blair if you give massive weight to Speaker’s additional 3 assists. But given how close they are in AR, it’s hard to rationalize that. So Blair it is once again, our 2nd repeat winner.

#RF

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEffAAR
NLBBBHank Aaron945.9791.74.41.0660.6
HOMRoberto Clemente1134.9792.27.11.0611-2.6
KCMStan Musial972.9812.08.41.072-0.4
ALMEMMookie Betts8801.0001.97.61.072-3.8
DETAl Kaline971.9912.13.81.036-1.8
LAAIchiro Suzuki11951.0002.05.71.047-3.0

The NL is insanely close. Musial makes more spectacular plays than Clemente, Clemente makes marginally more plays overall and has that cannon for an arm, although Musial limits baserunners more effectively. It’s a coin flip, but today we’ll go with Clemente’s additional 150 innings as the difference maker.

In the AL, it’s clearly one of the players who didn’t make a single miscue, and although Betts has the edge in a few metrics, Suzuki has over 300 more innings–1200 innings without an error, but with great range, is incredible.

#P

We’re using 140 innings as the cutoff for the pitchers. Additionally, we have access to number of Framing Runs the pitcher benefitted from, as well as the SB numbers against them. Errors tend to be so low from pitchers, that fPct is no longer a really useful metric.

LgTmNameIPRFZRdEffRTFR
NLHODBob Rush1861.23.71.00600
HODJack Taylor1920.95.21.00570
PHIJM Ward1961.03.41.16510.4
ALPORBert Blyleven2040.95.61.00590.3
BALBob Feller1531.03.30.9168-0.3
PORWalter Johnson2140.85.01.20590

Sample size, of course, wrecks havoc with pitcher’s defensive stats. Still, we have what we have.

Not only does Bob Rush make a lot of plays, he keeps runners from stealing, and while Jack Taylor makes more spectacular plays, Rush’s ZR is more than good enough to take the award home. In the AL, Johnson and Blyleven are neck-and-neck, but we’ll go with Blyleven, who has a slight edge in most categories.

#The Gold Gloves

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CIván Rodríguez (MCG)Elrod Hendricks (HOD)
1BHank Greenberg (DET)Joey Votto (IND)
2BMiller Huggins (BAL)Chase Utley (PHI)
SSArky Vaughan (CLE)Ozzie Smith (KCM)
3BBuddy Bell (POR)Ron Cey (BRK)
LFJohnny Bates (CLE)Roy White (BRK)
CFPaul Blair (BAL)Willie Davis (PHI)
RFIchiro Suzuki (LAA)Roberto Clemente (HOM)
PBert Blyleven (POR)Bob Rush (HOD)

There are a surprising number of teams with 2 Gold Glove winners–Baltimore, Portland, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, and the House of David.

But the overall number of finalists may be more interesting, as it should give some indications as to the higher tier defensive units in the league. Here’s how that stacks up:

6. Cleveland
5. Philadelphia
4. House of David, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Portland
3. Baltimore, Detroit, New York Gothams, San Francisco
2. Birmingham, Brooklyn, Memphis, Miami, New York Black Yankees, Ottawa
1. Chicago, Homestead, Los Angeles

TWIWBL 87.10: The Right Fielders

Once more, be sure to check the DH page if you don’t see an expected name here.

We have a new defensive metric for outfielders: ARM, which is an estimate of the number of runs saved (or allowed) from their throwing arms.

#S Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLPHIAaron Judge27278/382/69963 HR
133 RBI
108 R
-3.4 ARM

Since being a bit of an add on in the Mike Schmidt trade, Aaron Judge has made himself the heart of the Stars’ offense, and fully deserves this ranking.

#A Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
ALCAGJoe Jackson25355/410/608107 R
55 SB
-5.7 ZR
ALNYYMickey Mantle22255/368/60156 HR
127 RBI
120 R
101 BB
21 SB
.972 fPct
3.8 ARM
NLOTTLarry Walker23268/349/64954 HR
126 RBI
101 R
.993 fPct

Larry Walker continues to struggle with injury, but this a solid group. Joe Jackson was probably S-Tier last season, and Mickey Mantle may shift to CF at some point.

#B Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLBBBHank Aaron22294/316/60351 HR
105 RBI
ALCLELarry Doby25263/359/58341 HR.968 fPct
-4.8 ARM
NLHOUTony Gwynn25341/376/538104 R
27 SB
7 A
1.70 RF
-5.5 ZR
.960 dEff
ALBALBryce Harper21256/358/55041 HR
22 SB
1.61 RF
.956 dEff
ALDETAl Kaline21286/356/60236 HR2.08 RF
ALMCGYasiel Puig23298/388/65830 HR1.60 RF
-5.4 ZR
0.8 ARM

Yasiel Puig‘s raw offense would actually move him up, but he didn’t play a full season, and that plus his defensive shortcomings are enough to keep him here. Each of these are key to their team, but each needs to improve to move up–Hank Aaron needs better strike zone control, Tony Gwynn more power, and Larry Doby and Bryce Harper just a shade more production somewhere.

#C Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLBRKBeals Becker23283/330/56639 HR
44 SB
8 A
ALMEMMookie Betts24280/335/53035 SB1.000 fPct
7.6 RF
1.067 dEff
-3.8 ARM
ALSFSBobby Bonds25248/319/52736 HR
47 SB
NLNYGJohnny Callison26262/328/57139 HR
NLHOMRoberto Clemente27275/305/50011 A
2.22 RF
7.1 ZR
NLINDGeorge Foster22259/309/56338 HR.993 fPct
2.12 RF
1.064 dEff
1.5 ARM
NLKCMStan Musial22300/371/51933 SB8.4 ZR
1.067 dEff

Interestingly, here is where all the defense rests. Roberto Clemente, and perhaps even Stan Musial, are only here because of their gloves–both can and should do more offensively in the future. George Foster was a very pleasant surprise for Indianapolis, and Mookie Betts may be the best pure baseball athlete not named Honus Wagner or Martín Dihigo in the game.

All very solid, with Musial and Betts the most likely to continue to develop.

#D Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
ALPORBobby Murcer27250/311/48933 HR
ALBALKen Singleton24256/363/481.967 fPct
.925 dEff
NLOTTSam Thompson27265/297/5081.000 fPct

A hard group. Sam Thompson wasn’t really a full time player, but did qualify, and his power is clearly quite useful, as is Ken Singleton‘s ability to get on base. But all 3 of these are on the fringes of their teams’ plans for next year.

#F Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLHODSammy Sosa25195/240/47841 HR
20 SB
ALLAAIchiro Suzuki29280/294/39432 SB7 A
1.000 fPct
5.7 RF

It’s such a rough league.

Sammy Sosa‘s 41 HR and Ichiro Suzuki‘s speed and defense are just not enough on their own: Sosa needs to do more than hit homeruns, and Suzuki needs to add offense across the board. Perhaps surprisingly given his age, the Angels remain committed to Suzuki’s upside, but it’s not clear if Sosa will get another change next season.

#Rookies

Foster (C Tier), Thompson (D Tier), and Suzuki (F Tier).

#Fielding Notes

We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Assists (A), more romantically referred to as Outfield Kills are runners eliminated on the bases. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

TWIWBL 81.3: A Preliminary Look at the Rookies

We’re going to do this by position group, ignoring league differences (although we will have a Rookie Team for each league in the offseason).

Only 6 players are officially full time (that is, they qualify for the batting stats): IF Jimmie Foxx, OFs Turkey Stearnes, John Briggs, Adam Dunn, and Ichiro Suzuki, and everywhere playing Charles Rogan. That group probably forms the core of the shortlist for the final Rookie of the Year Award: if you’re able to hold down a fulltime starting spot as a rookie in the WBL …

#C

Perhaps unsurprisingly, there are no fulltime rookie catchers, although 2–Philadelphia’s Bill Dickey and the House of David’s Frank Chance–have seen more and more time as the season has worn on.

NameAgeTmLgOPS / WAROther
JP Arencibia30BBBNL.769 / -0.3166 PA, 15 HR, 29 RBI
Frank Chance24HODNL.658 / -0.2250 PA
Bill Dickey23PHINL.772 / 0.4159 PA, 23 RBI
Dick Dietz29NYGNL.937 / 0.794 PA
Tom Haller33BALAL.839 / 0.7127 PA
AJ Pierzynski28LAAAL.630 / -0.4191 PA, 9 HR

Really, that’s it. Chance has played about 3/4 of the time behind the plate, so the playing time is pretty consistent. So … Tom Haller (who is likely to not have a very long career, although he’ll be retained as the backup in Baltimore next season for sure) in the AL and Dickey in the NL.

#1B/3B

The corner IF spots are a bit rough, given the high end talent in the AL and the lack of presence in the NL.

NamePosAgeTmLgOPS / WAROther
Jimmie Foxx1B/3B21SFSAL.924 / 2.3510 PA, 44 HR, 82 RBI
Joe Harris1B36HOD/
KCM
NL.899 / 1.1429 PA
Eddie Murray1B22BALAL.857 / 0.279 PA
David Ortiz1B27MEMAL1.039 / 2.0293 PA, 30 HR, 62 RBI
Andy Pafko3B29BBB/
MCG
NL/
AL
.851 / 0.6260 PA
Chris Sabo3B29INDNL.780 / 0.2297 PA

Foxx’s being the only rookie infielder to qualify for the batting championship gives him the lead, despite Ortiz’ remarkable production. Foxx played a little more at 1B than 3B, but given the paucity of hot corner candidates, may get the recognition there, clearing the way for Ortiz.

Pafko played as much in RF as 3B, but we needed more 3B here. Harris is a nice feel-good story–nothing like a 36 year old rookie come good.

#2B/SS

2 of the best here–Cal Ripken, Jr. and Judy Johnson–played regularly elsewhere (including 3B), but logged the majority of their innings in the middle infield.

NamePosAgeTmLgOPS / WAROther
Royce ClaytonSS22SFSAL1.020 / 0/7100 PA
Charlie Gehringer2B25DETAL.798 / 0.3418 PA, 14 HR, 48 RBI
Frank Grant2B/SS22HOD/
SFS
NL/
AL
.754 / 1.1283 PA
Judy JohnsonSS18HOMNL.809 / 1.2240 PA
Dobie MooreSS20MEMAL.779 / 1.1378 PA
Cal Ripken, Jr.SS23BALAL.876 / 2.3370 PA, 22 HR, 62 RBI
Joe SewellSS23CLEAL.852 / 0.9133 PA

Interesting list, with Gehringer being the only truly full time player for the entire season, although both Moore and Ripken are close enough to count. The lack of talent at 2B and in the NL is striking.

#OF

Here we have the clear overall RoY from the field players, but there’s more to chew on here than Turkey. Sorry.

NamePosAgeTmLgOPS / WAROther
Juan BeníquezLF35DETAL.916 / 1.9400 PA
John BriggsCF21BRKNL.930 / 2.7448 PA
Kiki CuylerLF32PORAL.675 / -0.5305 PA
Adam DunnLF22INDNL.831 / 0.5502 PA
George FosterRF22INDNL.841 / 1.5432 PA
Al KalineRF21DETAL.919 / 2.1422 PA, 75 RBI
Elliott MaddoxOF21NYY/
HOU
AL/
NL
.766 / 0.2406 PA
Rick MondayCF24OTTNL1.019 / 1.6307 PA
Julio RodríguezCF20MCGAL1.024 / 1.8355 PA, 35 HR
Charles RoganCF27PHINL.964 / 3.0466 PA
Turkey StearnesCF22SFSAL1.134 / 6.0512 PA, 47 HR, 115 RBI
Ichiro SuzukiRF28LAAAL.698 / -0.5513 PA
Sam ThompsonRF27OTTNL.820 / -0.2362 PA

We’re not going to be too picky about positions here, going with Stearnes, Kaline, and J-Rod in the AL and Briggs, Rogan, and Foster in the NL; or perhaps Monday, if you want to recognize Rogan on the mound.

The surprises here are probably Briggs (who had an army of doubters, but is 2nd here in WAR) and Monday, whose offense just kept demanding more and more playing time. And mention has to be made of Beníquez–35 years old and a dominant year. He played 1B and 3B as well, so may see recognition there.

#SP

A dozen rookies made 10 or more starts; of those, a half-dozen are worth taking a closer look at.

NameAgeTmLgW-LERAIPWHIPFIPWAR
A. Rube Foster23KCMNL10-63.211850.993.725.1
Bump Hadley23SFSAL16-54.151691.224.074.3
Charles Rogan27PHINL11-94.411691.234.813.1
Fernando Valenzuela24BRKNL13-53.601481.024.323.1
Jim Whitney24BBB/
MCG
NL/
AL
8-63.791761.084.394.2
Joe Williams24BRKNL12-113.871881.243.696.0

Foster is the clear class of this group, but Smokey Joe is a very close 2nd. I would add Whitney and Valenzuela to the award list, giving Brooklyn 2 of the 4 slots.

#RP

There aren’t a ton of relievers who are impactful enough to really warrant discussion here, but there are some.

NameAgeTmLgW-LERASvHWHIP
Terry Forster22BRKNL1-23.562141.12
Eddie Guardado25KCMNL2-22.20191.00
Billy Hoeft19DETAL2-36.102101.50
Brad Kilby27PHINL3-36.202141.24
Firpo Marberry28CLEAL7-04.723111.34
Tug McGraw27HOUNL5-42.951251.20
Andrew Miller23MEMAL6-84.413111.33
Skel Roach28MEMAL2-14.313121.49

Marberry, McGraw, Forster, and Guardado look pretty solid.

TWIWBL 80.3: A Preliminary Look at the Gold Gloves

{Every year towards the end of the season, I do some legwork so when the awards roll around, it’s not as burdensome. This week, the fielders, next week, the rookies.}

We’re going to do this position by position, mixing the leagues, with the candidates listed alphabetically. 600 IP minimum, unless otherwise noted.

Last year, only 1 set of awards were given; this year, with the creation of the NL, there will be 2 at each position.

Some of the positions have their own things, but a note about some of the standard fielding statistics. Range Factor measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

#C

NameTmLgIPAEPBZRRTO%cERAFRM
Johnny BenchINDNL9671124103.540%5.267.6
Curt BlefaryBALAL937103242.038%5.681.6
Gary CarterOTTNL900114594.342%6.154.9
Josh GibsonHOMNL97310236-1.530%5.987.7
Elrod HendricksHODNL825104474.641%5.473.9
Joe MauerPORAL974129562.737%5.364.9
Thurman MunsonNYYAL95791623.036%5.293.0
Mike PiazzaBRKNL96688212-2.831%4.624.5
Buster PoseyNYGNL933100492.639%5.438.0
Iván RodríguezMCGAL9171162145.347%5.611.8
Ted SimmonsKCMNL907108552.437%4.31-2.3
IP = Innings Played; A = Assists; E = Errors; PB = Passed Balls; ZR = Zone Rating; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; cERA = Catcher’s ERA; FRM = Framing Runs Saved

Catcher’s stats are just all over the place.

It’s hard to take cERA and FRM all that seriously when they fall so far outside the bounds of the rest of the information at our disposal–although, to be fair, cERA is clearly tied to the quality of the staff and, as such, perhaps is best viewed as a net difference from the overall team ERA. Perhaps I’ll look at that for the actual awards.

Regardless, it feels like, if you look at a catcher’s primary job of making plays and keeping the opposition running game under control, Carter in the NL and Pudge in the AL are the frontrunners. The argument against each, if there is one, would have to focus on their league-leading (in the wrong way) PB numbers.

But this one doesn’t really feel close at this point.

Last year’s winner, Cleveland’s Louis Santop, has struggled so much offensively this year that his playing time has really dropped him out of contention, although his defensive performance remains top-notch.

#1B

NameTmLgIPTCADPERNGZREff
Mike EpsteinHOMNL957952568048.933.01.016
Hank GreenbergDETAL973891587448.202.71.022
Kent HrbekPORAL884846457958.571.81.028
Don MattinglyNYYAL710642405458.071.81.031
Dan McGannBALAL879887666969.02-1.9.978
Boog PowellKCMNL978998568049.153.01.016
Joey VottoINDNL942863627608.254.51.040
Bill WhiteMEMAL793812356669.150.41.007
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

The 2 best defensive 1Bs in the league–Kansas City’s Boog Powell and Indianapolis’ Joey Votto–are both in the NL. So the competition there is clear, as is, ultimately, the current frontrunner in Powell. Votto’s edge in the digital measures–ZR and Efficiency–may make this a more challenging choice at the end of the year.

In the AL, it’s far more confusing, but it feels like the discussion is between Detroit’s Hank Greenberg and the Black Yankees’ Don Mattingly. Mattingly hasn’t played a ton, so perhaps Greenberg edges him? Portland’s Kent Hrbek could probably edge into the discussion as well.

Will Clark of the New York Gothams, who won it last year, has been fine, but falls just short of contention.

#2B

Five 2B had only 3 errors, but 2 of them–Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson and Boston’s DJ LeMahieu–have under 700 innings at the position. LeMahieu is the leader in Defensive Efficiency, so he made the list, but Robinson did not.

NameTmLgIPTCDPERNGZREff
Roberto AlomarOTTNL103551162104.36-3.1.978
Robinson CanóKCMNL9945247654.709.71.060
Eddie CollinsCAGAL99552877114.67-7.6.943
Miller HugginsBALAL7963835054.279.11.097
Chuck KnoblauchCLEAL9514436434.16-9.6.926
Nap LajoieHOMNL8764856644.947.31.049
DJ LeMahieuMEMAL6443455334.787.71.110
Cookie RojasMCGAL7383636234.39-3.6.965
Ryne SandbergHODNL8634896035.075.41.035
Chase UtleyPHINL9885386124.8813.81.081
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

Ryne Sandberg and Napoleon Lajoie have had fine years at 2B, but Philadelphia’s Chase Utley has been fairly spectacular, leading the world in Zone Rating with excellent numbers across the board.

The AL is more confusing, as the best fielders–Miller Huggins and DJ LeMahieu–have yet to hit 800 innings in the field. But there really aren’t a lot of other contenders: Eddie Collins, who won it last year, has amassed a ton of time at 2B, and hence is among the leaders in the counting stats, but his other numbers are surprisingly bad.

#SS

NameTmLgIPTCDPERNGZREff
Jim FregosiPOR/PHIAL/NL10774976084.09-10.6.940
Derek JeterNYYAL106150467164.14-19.0.911
Barry LarkinINDNL7053804994.748.31.085
Dick LundySFSAL8384114664.358.21.057
Freddy ParentCAGAL88850856115.0413.21.058
Ozzie SmithKCMNL10195436754.7511.01.068
Arky VaughanCLEAL9404445384.1710.41.085
Robin YountMCGAL9524735964.418.31.052
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

It feels like the choices here are pretty clear: Ozzie Smith in the NL and Freddy Parent in the AL. Smith should be uncontroversial, but Parent is subject to some discussion, as he is getting less and less playing time for the American Giants. If it’s not Parent, it is probably Arky Vaughan or Robin Yount, with the question being whether Yount’s surer hands outweigh Vaughan’s greater range.

George Davis, who won it last year, logged just under 50 games with Detroit before being sent to AAA and suffering a significant injury.

#3B

NameTmLgIPTCDPERNGZREff
Dick AllenCAGAL104626024152.110.51.010
Buddy BellPORAL10452962382.487.91.054
Adrián BeltréOTTNL936272672.550.31.007
Ron CeyBRKNL9562782472.554.71.035
Manny MachadoBALAL85725914102.610.91.013
Eddie MathewsBBBNL10142912982.51-2.6.986
Doug RaderLAAAL104728726132.350.91.021
Scott RolenPHINL9732651672.394.01.050
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

Portland’s Buddy Bell has probably been the best 3B in the WBL this season, so he should take the award in the AL. In the NL, it currently comes down to Scott Rolen and Ron Cey, whose numbers are pretty indistinguishable at this point, perhaps with a slight edge to Cey.

#LF

For the OF, DP is replaced by Outfield Kills, and we introduce ARM, a measurement of how many runs have resulted from runners taking extra bases on balls hit to the that fielder. Note that positive ARM ratings are relatively rare: runners do tag up.

NameTmLgIPTCKERNGZREffARM
Johnny BatesCLEAL1006205422.097.01.053-1.0
Bob BescherINDNL681149121.94-4.3.950-2.1
Don BufordLAA/NYGAL/NL705127011.61-2.8.957-0.6
Rickey HendersonSFSAL1040199341.6910.01.104-2.8
Sherry MageePHINL658127101.743.71.046-1.9
Bob NiemanBBBNL720145421.79-1.0.961-1.6
Frank RobinsonBALAL897184421.830.3.998-1.8
Babe RuthNYYAL627128121.815.71.084-1.3
Roy WhiteBRKNL1006213521.899.31.075-1.2
Jim WynnHOUNL755140021.64-4.4.9553.3
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

It feels like Roy White has a shot at being the first repeat winner as he has once again proven incredibly dependable in LF for Brooklyn, while adding more Kills and excellent supporting numbers.

In the AL, It feels like it’s the range of Rickey Henderson against the overall dependability of Johnny Bates–who actually makes more plays the Rickey, but some of that is down to staff effects.

Have to call out the nutty ARM rating for Jim Wynn, which is as flukish as fluke can be.

#CF

NameTmLgIPTCKERNGZREffARM
Paul BlairBALAL838251322.7310.41.084-2.3
Chili DavisDETAL9792831382.53-12.5.9281.5
Willie DavisPHINL898287432.8515.21.109-2.0
Curtis GrandersonBBBNL974317152.884.81.030-4.6
Pete HillHOUNL800222222.470.7.997-2.8
Willie MaysNYGNL1065327342.7311.31.046-4.2
Willie McGeeKCMNL8452611072.71-5.9.963-1.4
Mike TroutLAAAL940282212.69-0.21.006-3.3
Vernon WellsCAGAL624209232.97-5.2.968-2.6
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

Not a lot to pick from in the AL, which increases Paul Blair‘s chance at a repeat selection. It probably comes down to Blair’s overall excellence against the spectacular highlight reel nature of Chili Davis‘ year: Davis hasn’t made all the plays, but has thrown out 13 runners. Mike Trout is in the conversation, but Blair edges him across the board, and is the likely frontrunner.

In the NL, things are much deeper, and we run into the question of how to weigh playing time. Willie Mays has similar numbers to Willie Davis, but over 200 more innings in the field, which I think is enough to give him the edge. Some mention should be made of the steady Curtis Granderson and the surprising 10 kills from Kansas City’s Willie McGee.

#RF

NameTmLgIPTCKERNGZREffARM
Beals BeckerBRKNL1022233732.033.01.0070.7
Mookie BettsMEMAL775166101.936.81.076-3.7
Roberto ClementeHOMNL973243862.195.61.050-3.1
Larry DobyCLEAL768186172.105.01.064-4.2
Stan MusialKCMNL801157241.727.01.0720.8
Ichiro SuzukiLAAAL1035227501.975.41.036-2.4
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

This is very close in both leagues.

In the NL, you could make an argument for all 3 of the contenders: Brooklyn’s Beals Becker has been steady across the board; Stan Musial covers a huge amount of ground for Kansas City and has a higher ARM than Becker; and Roberto Clemente makes the most plays and has the most Kills. I think it’s Clemente or Musial, with Musial slightly in front, maybe?

Over in the AL, it’s between Mookie Betts and Ichiro Suzuki, neither of whom have made an error in RF this season. Betts has been slightly better with the glove, Suzuki slightly better with the arm. Perhaps Suzuki, partially because he has played more innings in RF than anyone.

Last year’s winner, Johnny Callison, has done well this season, but is just out of the conversation. Mention should be made of Ottawa’s Larry Walker as well: Walker doesn’t cover a ton of ground, but has only made a single error in RF this season.

#P

125 IP minimum.

A few additional stat for hurlers, including the number of steal attempts and the % thrown out as well as the number of runs gained through their catcher’s ability to frame strikes. Obviously, both of these are highly dependent on the quality of backstop, but they also do impact the evaluation of the pitcher.

We’ve also taking out E and DP as stats, as odd as that may seem, as there is just not enough variance to really make much of them.

NameTmLgIPTCRNGZREffSBARTO%FRM
Roger ClemensHOUNL183130.64-3.01.6596125-0.4
Gerrit ColeLAAAL155211.220.51.43844320.4
Pud GalvinLAAAL130241.661.31.1493139-0.7
Bump HadleySFSAL164301.65-0.3.99662340.5
Walter JohnsonPORAL189190.914.81.21728610.3
José MéndezMCGAL200200.904.41.0864356-0.7
Stubby OvermireMEMAL175211.082.2.8531663-0.0
Gaylord PerryNYGNL185311.51-0.3.99635290.7
Toad RamseyHOUNL196180.781.0.9134241-0.5
Bob RushHODNL156261.443.3.99619630.0
Jack TaylorHODNL163191.055.6.99641630.0
Doc WhiteINDNL13080.551.8.99618501.9
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency; SBA = Stolen Bases Attempted; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; FRM = Framing Runs

Who knows? Small sample sizes are rough, although it is nice to see last year’s winner, Jack Taylor, make a return appearance.

Taylor makes a lot of plays, and is very hard to run on, both of which count for quite a bit. I think an argument could be made for Pud Galvin, as well as for Taylor’s teammate, Bob Rush, but I would expect a fair bit of this to change over the final month of the season.

TWIWBL 74.4: Cum Posey Division

TeamW/LPctGB
San Francisco Sea Lions63-36.636
Miami Cuban Giants48-51.48515
Portland Sea Dogs46-54.46017.5
Los Angeles Angels45-53.45915.5
Chicago American Giants45-54.45518
Cum Posey Division | 23 July

#Chicago American Giants

In what may be a preliminary move to more significant changes, the American Giants moved Joe Lake into the starting rotation, sending last season’s ace Tricky Nichols to the bullpen. The also moved AJ Minter out of the closers role, replacing him with Akinori Otsuka. For now, however, both Nichols and Minter stay with the WBL club.

Frank Thomas had himself a day, hitting 2 homeruns and going 5-for-5, but it wasn’t enough as the American Giants fell to Detroit, 8-6.

#Los Angeles Angels

With Mark Ellis out for about a month, the Angels recalled Jay Bell from AAA. Bell will see some time at SS, with Bobby Grich returning fulltime to his 2B spot.

Elmer Smith replaced Pud Galvin at the end of the Angels’ rotation for the time being. Smith has been struggling at the plate, so his time in the OF will probably be reduced, but Los Angeles does still plan to use have him hit on the days he pitches.

Mike Trout went deep twice, but it wasn’t enough as the Angels fell to Cleveland, 7-5.

Kal Daniels and Ron Hassey each hit 2 out and the Angels’ bullpen held on as Los Angeles topped Cleveland, 11-8. Then they battered the Spiders, 14-3, as Ichiro Suzuki had 5 hits, Hassey 4, and Daniels drove in 6.

#Miami Cuban Giants

José Canseco went deep twice, but Miami fell to Baltimore, 5-3.

#Portland Sea Dogs

Tom Zachary will miss over a week and, with Scott Terry‘s fate still unknown, is hurt enough to warrant a trip to the DL. Art Fowler was recalled to take Zachary’s spot in the bullpen.

The news on Terry wasn’t good: he’ll be out for 9 months (Tommy John surgery) and the Sea Dogs recalled Heath Hembree from AAA.

#San Francisco Sea Lions

Turkey Stearnes went deep twice and Eddie Plank fanned 10 in 7+ innings, improving to 15-4 on the year in a 6-4 victory over the New York Black Yankees. And then it was Bobby Bonds‘ turn, as he hit his 27th and 28th homer of the year in another win over New York, this one by a margin of 7-4 as Bump Hadley won his 15th of the year.

TWIWBL 70.2 Spotlight on the Portland Sea Dogs

Portland was a playoff team last year. This year, they are 14 games behind and 11 games under .500. So we gotta’ figure out what happened.

Portland features players from the Washington Senators, Minnesota Twins, and Texas Rangers.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

Feels like virtually everyone on the roster is underperforming compared to last year. Not great.

THE OFFENSE

Lots of struggle here.

#What’s Going Right

Rogers Hornsby, last year’s prize trade acquisition, continues to star at age 34, leading the team in BA and OBP, with a .536 SLG to boot.

C Joe Mauer continues to be an elite backstop, slashing 302/383/502.

Gil Hodges leads the team in HR with 21 and RBI with 52 despite an OPS under .800. This actually probably belongs below: only 4 other hitters are in double digits in homeruns for a team having a hard time with power.

The Sea Dogs gave up a lot for Ken Griffey, Jr., whose talent remains undeniable. After struggling mightily with Ottawa last season, The Kid is doing significantly better, with a 278/332/546 slash line. So it’s not exactly setting the world on fire, but at 20 years old, it’s something.

Kiki Cuyler and Jeff Burroughs have been quite good as reserves, pushing hard for more playing time.

#What’s Not Going Right

Buddy Bell has been mired in a major slump, with a recent rebound leaving him still slashing 245/268/401, which is pretty miserable.

Bobby Murcer and Jim Fregosi have been thoroughly meh after each being among the best in the league at their positions last season.

Paul Molitor has been tantalizing but ultimately not very effective.

Harry Hooper has been among the worst OFers in the league, falling far, far short of last year’s solid contributions.

Cliff Lee–perhaps the best C prospect in the minors last year–has been horrible as Mauer’s backup this season, probably warranting a return to AAA in the near future.

THE PITCHING

The bullpen–a strength of the Sea Dogs last year–has been anything but this time around.

#What’s Going Right

Walter Johnson is Walter Johnson. He’s not as dominant as he was for periods last year, but he still leads the staff in wins and the starters in ERA.

Trevor Hoffman has excelled since being named the team’s closer.

Rookie Walter Ball has been quite good, with the best WHIP on the staff. For a 2nd round pick, that’s exceeding reasonable expectations.

Mike Cuellar continues to be among the best long relievers in the league.

#What’s Not Going Right

Johan Santana came back from long term injury and stepped back into his closer role–remember, he made the All-Star game last year leading the league in saves before getting hurt. So he came back and … something was dramatically wrong. So wrong that Santana is now in the minors being converted into a starter.

Dizzy Trout and Pascual Pérez have been mediocre at best, which is far from an indictment but also far from their performance last year.

But probably the biggest issue has been the rest of the bullpen. Mark Melancon–and his 5.00+ ERA–has been the best of them, and the rest of the relievers have had a full turnover, with the current bunch–Scott Terry, Tom Zachary, and Art Fowler–not looking any better.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

There is some talent here, especially in the OF, where Vladimir Guerrero, Hugh Duffy and Chuck Klein all look like WBL talents. It gets a little thinner after that: Hughie Jennings at SS seems good, but on the mound there’s not a ton. Maybe Harry Harper, maybe Joaquin Benoit, maybe Willard Schmidt?

WHAT’S NEEDED

The offense to recover a little bit and the pitching staff to recover a lot.

That pretty much sums it up.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

  • How will the Sea Dogs compensate for the loss of Cravath? The hope was that Hooper and Murcer would keep producing, and that, combined with Ken Griffey, Jr. would provide enough to make up for the loss of Cravath. Not so much.
  • Who joins the OF? Griffey, Jr. But … yeah, see above.

Notice that pitching wasn’t mentioned in the questions … so this was quite a shock for the Sea Dogs.

FEATURED SERIES

Portland is visiting its West Coast neighbors this week, and we’ll feature their opening series, 3 games against the Los Angeles Angels.

Projected Starters

Portland starter listed first.

Bert Blyleven (3-5, 4.73) @ Pud Galvin (1-9, 5.10)
Dizzy Trout (5-5, 4.44) @ Tom Seaver (3-5, 4.76)
Walter Johnson (8-4, 4.13) @ Brett Anderson (6-2, 4.28)

Game One

Kent Hrbek singled home a run in the top of the first and Bobby Murcer hit his first of the game (foreshadowing confirmed) in the top of the 4th, putting the Sea Dogs up, 2-0. Bert Blyleven looked solid, but a 2-run shot from LA’s Ichiro Suzuki tied up the game.

But the Sea Dogs looked more like their old selves from then on out, with Murcer hitting a grandslam in the fifth, making it 7-3. The game was over at that point, despite a 3 run homer from Mike Trout in the 9th.

The two homeruns gave Murcer 18 on the year and, as importantly for Portland, Hrbek added 3 hits as he showed more signs of rebounding towards last year’s performance. Blyleven was good enough, and Tom Zachary added a scoreless 1.2 innings in relief.

POR 8 (Blyleven 4-5) @ LAA 6 (Seaver 3-6)
HRs: POR – Murcer 2 (18); LAA – Suzuki (5), Trout (15).
Box Score

Game Two

A day off before this series has shifted the matchups some, with game two now featuring Walter Johnson for the Sea Dogs and the Angels keeping with their originally scheduled hurler, Pud Galvin.

LA took the lead in the 4th as Mike Trout doubled, stole 3rd, and scored on a groundout from Doug Rader. Carlos Delgado added his 13th of the year, and the Angels had a 2-0 lead.

The Angels are never sure which version of Galvin they’ll get: today, unfortunately for the Sea Dogs, it’s the one twirling a perfect game through 5 innings. That was spoiled by a couple of walks, and then the no-no went away when Rogers Hornsby singled in the top of the 7th.

A single from Paul Molitor and a walk to Gil Hodges chased Galvin in the top of the 8th, but Francisco Rodríguez and Joe Nathan were perfect in relief, completing the 2-hit shutout and evening the series at 1 game each.

POR 0 (Johnson 8-6) @ LAA 2 (Galvin 2-9; Nathan 11 Sv; Rodríguez 6 H)
HRs: POR – none; LAA – Delgado (13).
Box Score

Game Three

Portland’s Dizzy Trout and Los Angeles’ Brett Anderson are both pitching excellently at the moment, making the rubber game matchup pretty appealing.

Don Buford and Kal Daniels hit back-to-back homers to leadoff the bottom of the first, giving the home team an early 2-0 lead. Carlos Delgado added his 14th of the year, a 2-run shot, doubling the lead. Trout didn’t make it out of the 5th, leaving after loading the bases.

Meanwhile, Anderson was sailing along, allowing only 2 hits through 6 shutout frames.

The Angels would add some more–2 in the 6th and 4 in the 8th–but the story was Anderson, who was pulled after allowing 2 hits in the 9th, combining with Ross Reynolds on the 4-hit shutout.

Delgado had 4 hits on the day and drove in 3.

POR 0 (Trout 5-6) @ LAA 10 (Anderson 7-2)
HRs: POR – none; LAA – Daniels (14), Buford (16), Delgado (14).
Box Score

So, back to back shutouts ain’t great. There is much to be done in Portland this season, but it would seem the immediate challenge is to successfully participate in the midseason trade market as a seller.

TWIWBL 65.2 Spotlight on the Los Angeles Angels

A team still in search of identity, but you can see some reason for optimism. I mean, if you squint.

The Angels inherit players from their namesake and from the New York Mets.

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The Angels sit at exactly .500, closer to last than to first in the Cum Posey Division (5 games behind division leaders San Francisco, 3.5 games out ahead of last place Portland).

Honestly, a .500 finish is probably the goal for the year, so as far as that goes, they’re on track. It’s just hard to get all that excited about that. But you can see things happening for this team, both offensively and, if you look at the talent scattered throughout their minor league system, on the mound.

THE OFFENSE

There’s a budding superstar here, surrounded by a fair number of question marks. That’s not quite fair: Mike Trout is a budding superstar, but Bobby Grich and Doug Rader are both solid, Kal Daniels continues to demonstrate all the tools, and rookie OF Ichiro Suzuki looks set for a long WBL career.

Currently, though, this offense is just about the definition of league average, sitting 9th or 10th in almost all statistical categories.

#What’s Going Right

Trout is still not an elite power hitter, but every other part of his game is on point and Grich, who leads the team in HR with 10, produces far above the norm offensively for 2B. Veteran Carlos Delgado continues to deliver, and may end up being a pretty attractive trade piece if Los Angeles loses contact with the division leaders.

George Wright‘s return from injury has helped to settle the situation at SS, but Wright will always struggle to add much with the bat.

#What’s Not Going Right

Steve Garvey‘s continued struggles may send him down to the minors, and more and more it looks like his future will be at 1B, not 3B. C is a mess, with the platoon of AJ Pierzynski and Jeff Torborg struggling enough that the team plans to recall John Stearns from AAA this week.

With Suzuki, Wright, Garvey, and Mark Ellis all seeing at least semi-regular playing time, the Angels have a lot of players who are pretty allergic to taking a walk.

THE PITCHING

Los Angeles has somehow put together a top end pitching staff. It’s not likely to last top to bottom, but the higher end talent is very encouraging.

#What’s Going Right

Doc Gooden has been spectacular, with the 22 year old sporting a 2.60 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, but only a 4-3 record across 8 starts. Last year’s ace, Gerrit Cole, has struggled a bit, but the contributions of Tom Seaver (3-2, 3.88) and Brett Anderson (3-2, 4.60), along with the steady innings eating ability of Pud Galvin, has given Los Angeles a very strong rotation. And Cole, at 25, is the veteran of the bunch.

Roy Patterson, Ross Reynolds, and Mike Smith have been excellent in the middle innings, and Joe Nathan has 8 saves.

Perhaps most of all, the Angels decision to send Nolan Ryan and Chuck Finley to the minors seems to have paid off, with each of them performing well at AA.

#What’s Not Going Right

Not a lot, although the back end of the bullpen has been a little weak, with Francisco Rodríguez and Julio Teheran struggling and Nathan’s peripheral numbers being far rougher than his record may indicate.

Lefty Noah Lowry has been very ineffective, and his holding on to his roster spot by his fingernails.

Derrek Lee has struggled, and is in danger of losing his job to Wally Joyner, although that would leave the Angels with 2 lefties at 1B.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

This is not a great system, although if you count Ryan and Finley (who passed their rookie limits last season) it looks much better. IF Xander Bogaerts and closer Bryan Harvey are probably the highest ceiling prospects, followed by IF Marcus Semien, professional hitter Babe Herman, and OFs Dwayne Murphy, Brian Nimmo, and Billy Hamilton.

Of those, only Bogaerts is doing well.

Veteran help is available at AAA in the form of OF Elmer Valo, Stearns, 1Bs Wally Joyner and Jack Hannifin, and 3B Pedro Álvarez.

WHAT’S NEEDED

The offense has to improve faster than the offense reverts to the mean.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

  • Who is going to fill out the rotation and the bullpen? This has been resoundingly answered so far, with the pitching staff performing as well as any in the league.
  • Will anyone step up at C? Not yet, no. We’ll see if Stearns, who will replace Torborg, improves the situation here.

FEATURED SERIES

The Angels head to Memphis for 4 games to start the week; we’ll follow those games as it will give us a chance to see the bulk of their rotation.

Projected Starters

Los Angeles starter listed first.

Brett Anderson (3-2, 4.60) @ Jon Lester (2-1, 5.53)
Tom Seaver (3-2, 3.88) @ Bill Doak (3-3, 4.53)
Gerrit Cole (1-4, 5.37) @ Len Barker (1-6, 4.63)
Dwight Gooden (4-3, 2.60) @ Stubby Overmire (2-4, 4.9-2)

Game One

This is what happens when your bullpen is toast. With Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodríguez needing rest, the Angels were forced to turn to Noah Lowry in a high leverage situation … and it did not go well.

Brett Anderson was strong over 6 plus innings, and the Angels held a 7-3 lead heading into the bottom of the 8th. But Roy Patterson and Lowry collapsed, giving up 5 runs, including a go-ahead 3 run shot by Manny Ramírez as Memphis claimed a come from behind victory.

LAA 7 (Lowry 2-1, 3 B Sv) @ MEM 8 (Miller 3-; Papelbon 4 Sv)
HRs: LAA – Trout (9), Daniels (6); MEM – Williams (9), Smith (11), Ramírez (9).
Box Score

Game Two

More of the same. Los Angeles roared out of the gate, with back-to-back homeruns to lead off the game from Don Buford and Kal Daniels. Bobby Grich added a 2 run shot later in the inning, and the Angels were up 4-0. They touched Bill Doak for another run, leading 5-0 after 3.5.

And then Tom Seaver began to struggle, giving up homeruns to Manny Ramírez in consecutive innings, tying up the ballgame at 5. After Ross Reynolds was forced from the game with a forearm issue, David Ortíz greeted Roy Patterson with a solo shot to give the Red Sox a 6-5 lead.

Bobby Grich hit his second of the game, taking Jonathan Papelbon deep in the 9th to tie it, but the Angels bullpen wasn’t up to the task, eventually surrendering a bases loaded single to Mookie Betts for the walkoff win for Memphis.

LAA 6 (Patterson 1-1) @ MEM 7 (Papelbon 2-2, 3 B Sv; Bell 3 H; Miller 4 H)
HRs: LAA – Daniels (7), Buford (9), Grich 2 (12); MEM – Ramírez 2 (11), Ortíz (6).
Box Score

The game was costly for each team, as Memphis’ Dobie Moore also left with an injury. Reynolds will miss about a week, landing him on the DL, with the Angels recalling Scott Rice from AAA. Rice has a shot at taking Noah Lowry‘s role as the pen lefty, depending on how his initial WBL outings go.

Moore’s status is still unknown.

Game Three

Don Buford led off the game with a homerun for the second consecutive game, staking Gerrit Cole to an early 1-0 lead. Cole wasn’t up for the task, giving up 1 in the bottom of the first and a whopping 6 in the 2nd before being chased from the game by a Mookie Betts blast in the 4th.

The Angels offense did well against Len Barker, touching him for 6 runs in 6 innings, and staying close enough that a George Wright homerun (!) in the 8th could make it a 1 run game, 11-10 Memphis. They put two runners on base against Heath Bell in the 9th, but were unable to break through, and the Red Sox take the first 3 games of the series.

Wade Boggs had 3 doubles for Memphis and scored 4 times.

LAA 10 (Cole 1-5) @ MEM 11 (Barker 2-6; Callahan 1 H; Bell 2 Sv)
HRs: LAA – Buford (10), Wright (3); MEM – Ramírez (12), Betts (5).
Box Score

Angels 3B Doug Rader had to leave the game, but isn’t likely to require a trip to the DL. There was great news for Memphis as well, as Dobie Moore will only miss about a day with his bruised shin.

Game Four

Don Buford didn’t lead off this one with a homer: he waited until the 5th inning to launch a 3 run shot, putting the Angels up, 3-2. Steve Garvey and Ichiro Suzuki added 2 RBIs each in the 6th, increasing the lead to 7-2.

Doc Gooden had given up a 2-run shot in the bottom of the 1st to David Ortíz, but had shut Memphis down after that, lasting 7 innings in a very strong outing. Scott Rice relieved Gooden for his WBL debut … and it did not go well, with Rice giving up 3 runs, allowing the Red Sox to close the gap to 9-5.

With a 4 run lead, the Angels turned to Francisco Rodríguez … who promptly loaded the bases to start the bottom of the 9th. A walk to Ted Williams made it 9-6, and brought in Los Angeles’ closer, Joe Nathan. Nathan whiffed two … and then gave up a walkoff grand slam homerun to Billy Bryan, giving the Red Sox the series sweep.

Buford–who had a great series–finished the game with 5 RBIs, giving him 3 homers and 7 RBIs over the 4 games.

LAA 9 (Nathan 3-2, 1 B Sv) @ MEM 10 (Callahan 1-1)
HRs: LAA – Buford (11); MEM – Ortíz (7), Bryan (4).
Box Score

What a miserable series … 4 winnable games, 4 collapses from the Angels’ bullpen, 4 different ways to steal defeat from the jars of victory leading to 4 straight 1 run losses.

TWIWBL 61.1: Year 2, Week 4

April 23

With 3 weeks in the books, teams will have their first real overhaul this week, so expect some changes to lineups, rotations, etc. to be covered in the TWIWBL’s, making them a little longer than usual.

#NO NO and Near No No

José Rijo of the Kansas City Monarchs tossed the very first no-hitter in WBL history, blanking the House of David 7-0. Rijo didn’t walk a batter and struck out 12 in the 114 pitch masterpiece, supported by a 15 hit attack (including 9 doubles). Ozzie Smith had 4 hits, Albert Pujols drove in 2, and Boog Powell scored twice to lead the offense, but it was really all about Rijo, who improved to 2-1 on the year and dropped his ERA by roughly 2.5 points. It still stands a shade over 5 at 5.08, making the historic performance even more surprising.

Box Score

{In real life, Rijo had 2 1-hitters, but never threw a no-no.}

Christy Mathewson and John Montgomery Ward combined for one of the best pitched games in WBL history as the Matty’s New York Gothams bested the Philadelphia Stars 1-0 in 10 innings. Mathewson threw over 7 shutout innings, allowing only 2 hits and was–by far–the inferior hurler, as Ward allowed a single hit over 9 innings while striking out 12. Buster Posey took Ward’s relief–Bob Howry–deep to lead off the 10th for the only score of the day.

Box Score

#Awards

Miami‘s Gary Sheffield was the AL Player of the Week, hitting .500 with 2 homeruns. In the NL, Ottawa‘s Larry Walker took the award, hitting .444 with 4 homers and 6 RBIs.

#Team Performance

Three teams have exploded out of the gate: the Chicago American Giants and Kansas City lead the WBL in winning percentage, with both teams at .722 (13-5). The New York Black Yankees are at .700, starting the season at 14-6.

At the other end, the Detroit Wolverines have the worst record in the league at 6-14 (.300) while the Baltimore Black Sox and the Portland Sea Dogs are barely better at 6-13 (.316).

For those of you who remember Year I, the theme here is parity–or inconsistency, depending on your streetcorner. Baltimore are the defending champions, Detroit and Portland both made the playoffs, Kansas City was among the worst teams in the league last season, and the Black Yankees were a major disappointment, missing the postseason entirely.

We’re only 20 games in, so take it all with a grain of salt, but it’s fun to see.

#Player Performance

Batters

20 games seems plenty to look at some leaderboards, at least for hitters in a limited way. This list is the top 2 in most offensive categories, leaders in bold.

Ty Cobb (DET). 400/452/769. 15 2B.
Carlos Correa (HOU). 437/481/648. 31 H.
Eric Davis (NYY). 368/430/763. 9 HR, 26 R, 10 SB.
Tony Gwynn (HOU). 452/474/658. 33 H.
Rickey Henderson (SFS). 306/398/597. 11 SB.
Joe Jackson (CAG). 425/462/671. 31 H, 12 2B.
Grant Johnson (HOU). 319/373/609. 23 RBI.
Dick Lundy (SFS). 384/451/685. 4 3B, 1.8 WAR.
Babe Ruth (NYY). 362/471/812. 9 HR, 27 RBI, 20 R, 1.7 WAR.
Ryne Sandberg (HOD). 383/406/900. 9 HR.
Joey Votto (IND). 360/484/500.
Larry Walker (OTT). 435/474/826.
Bobby Wallace (BAL). 22 BB. 279/476/377.

There are some surprises here for sure: Correa and Johnson in Houston finally coming good, same with San Francisco‘s Lundy. But it still looks like it’s Babe Ruth’s league, assuming Sandberg’s performance falls back to mere excellence.

Pitchers

Still not enough to really get into stats: 13 starters have 3 wins, nobody has over 30 IP, etc. But some things to note:

  • It seems like there is always a single starting pitcher head and shoulders above the rest at any given time in the WBL. Right now, it’s Portland’s Smokey Joe Wood, who is 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA.
  • Houston’s Toad Ramsey is the ERA leader at an impressive 1.57, just ahead of Wood. Chicago’s Mark Buehrle is the only other starter with an ERA beneath 2.00 at 1.86.

Relievers have yet to really separate as well, as 5 of them have 5 saves on the season so far.

#Featured Series

This time we’ll focus on a four game set as the Los Angeles Angels visit Chicago to take on the American Giants. The Angels come into the game at 10-9 which is essentially “as expected,” while Chicago has roared out of the gate, sitting 1t 15-6.

Scheduled Starters

Los Angeles hurler listed first.

Tom Seaver (1-0, 3.00) @ David Price (2-2, 5.40)
Dwight Gooden (1-2, 3.24) @ Ed Walsh (1-0, 3.80)
Pud Galvin (0-2, 4.85) @ Mark Buehrle (4-0, 1.32)
Brett Anderson (2-1, 4.76) @ Ben Sheets (0-1, 7.71)

Game One

It was a rough start for David Price, as he gave up 2 runs in the top of the first on an RBI single by Mike Trout and a sacrifice fly from Doug Rader. But Price settled right down, and was virtually perfect the rest of the way before being relieved by Hoyt Wilhelm in the 7th. Tom Seaver was as good, leaving in the 6th inning having given up only 1 run.

The American Giants would score again in the 7th, but that would be it until the bottom of the 10th. Mike Fiore led off being hit by a pitch from Julio Teheran, Joe Jackson doubled him to 3rd and, after Ross Reynolds took over on the mound and issued an intentional walk to Frank Thomas, Dick Allen lifted a ball deep to center, where it was caught by Don Buford, but he had no chance to catch Fiore before he crossed the plate with the winning run.

LAA 2 (Teheran 1-2; Patterson 1 H; Lowry 2 BSv) @ CAG 3 (Wilhelm 1-0) [10 Innings]
HRs: None.
Box Score

Game Two

The story for most of the game was Los Angeles’ Doc Gooden, who was spectacular through 8 innings, allowing only 3 hits while fanning 10. The only blemish on Gooden’s day was a solo shot to Duffy Lewis, which tied the game at 1 in the 8th.

We were headed to extra innings once again, but there was less drama this time as the Angels used 3 homeruns in the top of the 10th (Doug Rader, Bobby Grich, and AJ Pierzynski) to ease to the 5-1 win.

LAA 5 (Rodríguez 1-0) @ CAG 1 (Twitchell 2-1) [10 Innings]
HRs: LAA – Rader (2), Grich (6), Pierzynski (4); CAG – Lewis (1).
Box Score

Game Three

Mark Buehrle just keeps rolling along, allowing 5 hits and 1 run over 9 innings and improving to 5-0 on the year. But the Angels’ pitchers were almost as good, and the only tallies in the game came from solo shots from Chicago’s Dave Nilsson and the Angels’ Mike Trout, who seems to be waking from an early season slumber. The game came down to a walkoff single from Joe Jackson in the bottom of the 9th. Jackson, Eddie Collins, and Paul Konerko had 2 hits each for Chicago.

LAA 1 (DeSclafani 0-1) @ CAG 2 (Buehrle 5-0)
HRs: LAA – Trout (3); CAG – Nilsson (1).
Box Score

Game Four

Another great pair of efforts from the starting pitchers, as Los Angeles’ Brett Anderson and Chicago’s Ben Sheets each went 7 innings allowing only a single hit each, and no earned runs (errors had allowed runs to score for each team). A key hit from rookie Ichiro Suzuki drove in 2, providing the margin the Angels needed for a 4-1 victory, splitting the series 2 games apiece. Neither team had an extra base hit, and they combined for only 6 singles (4 for Los Angeles and 2 for the American Giants).

LAA 4 (Anderson 3-1; Reynolds 1 Sv) @ CAG 1 (Sheets 0-2; Otsuka 1 B Sv)
HRs: None.
Box Score

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