On to the starters! Same Tier system.
This is everyone who qualified for the ERA crown, plus a heaping handful of others who made at least 10 starts during the season. If a player had less than 162 innings, they are (a) probably knocked down a tier and (b) their name is prefaced by a * and italicized.
We’ve leaned on valuing IP in these rankings, perhaps a bit too much. But these are your starters, and they need to show up, game after game. It also means the Tiers are a little different: there are D-Tier pitchers here that you would welcome at the back end of your rotation, and it’s really only some of them, and the F Tier, that are truly an issue.
Our usual practices prevail: bold for top 3 and italics for bottom 3. Pitchers with below 162 IP aren’t included in the top/bottom markers.
#S Tier
| Lg | Tm | Name | Age | W-L | ERA | IP | WHIP | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NL | KCM | A. Rube Foster | 24 | 11-8 | 3.30 | 204 | 1.02 | .189 BA .219 BABIP 0.7 HR/9 3.63 FIP |
| NL | IND | Luis Padrón | 22 | 23-3 | 3.22 | 235 | 1.04 | 220 K .192 BA .225 BABIP |
| NL | HOU | Toad Ramsey | 23 | 16-10 | 3.23 | 223 | 0.97 | 282 K .182 BA 11.4 K/9 3.8 K/BB 3.40 FIP |
Just look at all that bold.
It’s been these 3 all year, and there’s a hair’s breadth between them. The analytics like Toad Ramsey, but Luis Padrón‘s record is stunning and while his ERA crown came by the absolute thinnest of margins, it did come.
Knuckleballers are always a bit unpredictable season-to-season, and it may very well be that A. Rube Foster has the best career of these three. But great things are expected of each of them.
#A Tier
| Lg | Tm | Name | Age | W-L | ERA | IP | WHIP | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | SFS | Lefty Grove | 27 | 16-6 | 4.40 | 209 | 1.15 | 230 K 2.2 BB/9 9.9 K/9 4.4 K/BB |
| AL | MCG | José Méndez | 23 | 13-6 | 4.53 | 233 | 1.11 | 201 K 2.2 BB/9 |
| NL | BRK | Fernando Valenzuela | 24 | 14-5 | 3.69 | 163 | 1.08 | 1 Sv; 4 H |
| — | BBB/ MCG | Jim Whitney | 24 | 10-7 | 3.83 | 202 | 1.10 | 1 Sv; 2 H |
| NL | BRK | Smokey Joe Williams | 24 | 12-13 | 3.93 | 202 | 1.23 | 0.8 HR/9 3.55 FIP |
| NL | KCM | Smokey Joe Wood | 22 | 15-12 | 4.11 | 191 | 1.13 |
Lefty Grove and Smokey Joe Williams each have an argument to move up a tier, but are held back, Grove’s instance by his ERA, in Williams’ by his record. Still, they are the class of this group.
If José Méndez hadn’t led the league in innings, he would probably drop down a level, but we’re nitpicking: these are staff aces on most teams. Note that Miami, Brooklyn, and Kansas City already have 2 pitchers each on this list.
#B Tier
| Lg | Tm | Name | Age | W-L | ERA | IP | WHIP | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | LAA | Brett Anderson | 22 | 11-6 | 4.34 | 189 | 1.12 | |
| NL | HOU | * Ice Box Chamberlain | 19 | 4-4 | 3.56 | 109 | 1.13 | 1 Sv; 1 H |
| NL | HOU | Roger Clemens | 25 | 17-10 | 3.71 | 211 | 1.13 | |
| AL | SFS | Bump Hadley | 23 | 18-6 | 4.10 | 189 | 1.18 | 0.9 HR/9 4.2 BB/9 |
| NL | PHI | Hardie Henderson | 21 | 18-12 | 3.78 | 209 | 1.23 | 4.2 BB/9 1.7 KK/B |
| NL | BRK | Orel Hershiser | 27 | 19-5 | 3.69 | 185 | 1.21 | |
| NL | HOD | * Kyle Peterson | 22 | 8-3 | 3.80 | 107 | 1.16 | |
| AL | NYY | Andy Pettitte | 33 | 18-9 | 4.43 | 201 | 1.21 | |
| AL | SFS | Eddie Plank | 27 | 20-7 | 4.42 | 210 | 1.31 | |
| AL | CAG | Ed Walsh | 25 | 10-11 | 3.94 | 205 | 1.15 | 1 Sv 201 K .225 BABIP |
Hardie Henderson, Roger Clemens, and perhaps Eddie Plank (but that would be giving an awful lot of weight on 20 victories) could all be nudged up, but I’m comfortable with this. These are all front of rotation hurlers, with the only real surprise being Brett Anderson, who quietly excelled in a difficult year for Los Angeles. Ed Walsh, last year’s Rookie of the Year, avoided the sophomore slump entirely.
If you’re looking for skepticism, both Ice Box Chamberlain (due to age) and Kyle Peterson (due to coming out of nowhere) are decent bets to regress.
#C Tier
| Lg | Tm | Name | Age | W-L | ERA | IP | WHIP | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | POR | Walter Ball | 26 | 8-7 | 4.26 | 142 | 1.20 | |
| NL | PHI | Steve Carlton | 25 | 12-13 | 5.05 | 187 | 1.24 | |
| NL | IND | Johnny Cueto | 29 | 12-14 | 4.62 | 212 | 1.14 | |
| NL | HOM | * Doug Drabek | 25 | 6-8 | 4.76 | 147 | 1.17 | 1 H |
| NL | BRK | Don Drysdale | 22 | 11-8 | 5.66 | 186 | 1.28 | |
| AL | LAA | Dwight Gooden | 22 | 11-11 | 4.36 | 194 | 1.29 | |
| AL | NYY | Ron Guidry | 28 | 11-7 | 4.51 | 208 | 1.24 | 251 K 10.9 K/9 |
| NL | OTT | Roy Halladay | 29 | 15-9 | 5.17 | 195 | 1.26 | 2.2 BB/9 |
| AL | POR | Walter Johnson | 20 | 13-12 | 4.28 | 214 | 1.28 | |
| NL | BRK | * Sandy Koufax | 21 | 6-3 | 4.93 | 119 | 1.16 | 2 H |
| AL | MEM | Stubby Overmire | 25 | 13-10 | 4.72 | 212 | 1.26 | 6.1 K/9 |
| NL | NYG | Gaylord Perry | 22 | 12-15 | 4.34 | 189 | 1.12 | |
| NL | KCM | José Rijo | 26 | 8-12 | 5.09 | 179 | 1.26 | |
| NL | PHI | Charles Rogan | 27 | 12-9 | 4.51 | 188 | 1.24 | |
| AL | CLE | Bill Steen | 26 | 13-10 | 4.71 | 193 | 1.33 | 1.9 K/BB |
| NL | NYG | Don Sutton | 25 | 17-8 | 5.23 | 174 | 1.25 | |
| NL | PHI | JM Ward | 20 | 6-10 | 5.01 | 196 | 1.16 |
Gaylord Perry and JM Ward were perhaps the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year: a bit of good fortune, and either could be several tiers above. If anyone is ranked too highly, it’s probably Bill Steen. There are a lot of names here that could easily take a step forward–Steve Carlton, Don Drysdale, and Walter Johnson especially.
Sandy Koufax blossomed in the bullpen after losing his rotation spot, but Brooklyn is likely to try him again as a starter next season.
Joe Rogan is just a remarkable talent. Everyone else here has great value solely from being on the mound: add Rogan’s bat and … yoikes.
#D Tier
| Lg | Tm | Name | Age | W-L | ERA | IP | WHIP | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | MEM | Len Barker | 25 | 11-12 | 4.99 | 180 | 1.44 | |
| AL | SFS | * Tommy Bridges | 37 | 6-7 | 5.38 | 146 | 1.21 | |
| AL | POR | Bert Blyleven | 21 | 10-11 | 5.03 | 204 | 1.32 | |
| NL | KCM | Frank Castillo | 23 | 12-7 | 5.21 | 193 | 1.32 | |
| AL | SFS | * Watty Clark | 26 | 6-4 | 4.02 | 134 | 1.30 | 2 H |
| NL | PHI | * Ray Collins | 24 | 4-7 | 4.62 | 121 | 1.27 | 1 H |
| AL | CLE | * Bob Feller | 20 | 13-3 | 4.30 | 153 | 1.34 | |
| NL | BBB | * Lefty Gomez | 27 | 9-9 | 4.90 | 154 | 1.30 | 2 H |
| AL | NYY/ CAG | Waite Hoyt | 24 | 11-4 | 4.89 | 169 | 1.44 | 4.1 BB/9 |
| NL | BRK | Frank Knauss | 23 | 12-6 | 4.55 | 180 | 1.34 | |
| NL | HOM | Francisco Liriano | 23 | 10-12 | 5.03 | 181 | 1.38 | |
| NL | BBB | Greg Maddux | 23 | 10-14 | 5.35 | 195 | 1.28 | 59 HRA .225 BABIP 6.50 FIP |
| AL | BAL | Dennis Martínez | 24 | 12-8 | 5.12 | 202 | 1.42 | |
| NL | NYG | Christy Mathewson | 22 | 7-16 | 5.61 | 210 | 1.40 | 207 K |
| AL | POR | * Joseíto Muñoz | 20 | 4-4 | 4.56 | 101 | 1.37 | 1 Sv; 2 H |
| AL | BAL | * Jim Palmer | 25 | 8-8 | 4.88 | 138 | 1.37 | 1 H |
| NL | BBB | Alejandro Peña | 26 | 8-11 | 5.59 | 180 | 1.31 | |
| NL | HOM | Billy Pierce | 30 | 10-11 | 5.77 | 173 | 1.36 | |
| NL | HOD | * Rick Reuschel | 30 | 8-8 | 4.61 | 135 | 1.31 | 1 Sv; 1 H |
| NL | HOD | Bob Rush | 24 | 11-9 | 5.28 | 186 | 1.32 | 2 H |
| NL | HOD | CC Sabathia | 28 | 5-15 | 5.89 | 202 | 1.35 | 1 Sv; 1 H 64 HRA 3.2 HR/9 6.90 FIP |
| AL | CAG | Ben Sheets | 27 | 6-12 | 5.88 | 165 | 1.32 | 1 H |
| NL | OTT | * Bill Smith | 26 | 10-3 | 3.77 | 124 | 1.35 | 1 H |
| NL | HOU | Stephen Strasburg | 25 | 9-10 | 5.87 | 169 | 1.37 | |
| NL | HOD | Jack Taylor | 26 | 12-10 | 5.90 | 192 | 1.42 | .291 BA 6.4 K/9 |
| AL | CLE | Cy Young | 25 | 15-9 | 5.38 | 199 | 1.39 | .307 BABIP |
There are some absolute conundrums here. Greg Maddux‘s issues are obvious in the final column: his BABIP is top-3 in the league, showing just how good his stuff is. But he has to keep the ball in the ballpark. At least once in a while.
Christy Mathewson and Cy Young seem like they could do more than be massive inning eaters, but they need to be harder to hit to make the jump forward. But pitching is weird: Jack Taylor and Gerrit Cole (see below) were among the best on the mound last season, and struggled mightily this.
Bob Feller would warrant a bump as well with a few more solid starts.
#F Tier
| Lg | Tm | Name | Age | W-L | ERA | IP | WHIP | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | CAG | Mark Buehrle | 31 | 8-12 | 5.11 | 185 | 1.38 | 6.3 K/9 |
| AL | MEM | * David Bush | 26 | 9-9 | 6.58 | 149 | 1.32 | |
| AL | LAA | Gerrit Cole | 26 | 7-15 | 6.36 | 166 | 1.43 | 2.9 HR/9 6.52 FIP |
| AL | MCG | Cole Hamels | 25 | 11-12 | 6.18 | 178 | 1.42 | 63 HRA .293 BA 3.2 HR/9 3.7 K/BB |
| NL | NYG | * Carl Hubbell | 26 | 6-10 | 5.75 | 160 | 1.29 | 1 H |
| NL | HOM | * Cliff Lee | 30 | 8-4 | 5.30 | 114 | 1.32 | 3 H |
| NL | HOU | Roy Oswalt | 28 | 7-11 | 6.53 | 181 | 1.49 | .295 BA .305 BABIP |
| NL | OTT | Charles Radbourn | 27 | 12-13 | 5.89 | 202 | 1.35 | |
| AL | DET | Charlie Root | 31 | 11-10 | 6.15 | 199 | 1.42 | 59 HRA |
| AL | LAA | Tom Seaver | 23 | 7-8 | 5.81 | 164 | 1.44 | |
| — | BBB/ CAG | * Sam Streeter | 25 | 3-11 | 5.63 | 123 | 1.34 | |
| AL | POR | Dizzy Trout | 29 | 5-12 | 5.93 | 162 | 1.50 | 4.1 BB/9 1.8 K/BB |
| AL | DET | Justin Verlander | 25 | 5-12 | 6.48 | 169 | 1.52 | .310 BABIP |
| NL | IND | * Doc White | 27 | 5-12 | 6.55 | 143 | 1.34 | 1 Sv; 3 H |
Most of these issues are clear: too many homeruns, too many walks, way too many runners on the basepaths. Maybe Old Hoss Radbourn could argue to be one tier up. Maybe.
Other than that, it must be said there is a ton of talent here: Roy Oswalt, Tom Seaver, and Justin Verlander jump out as most likely to bounce back next year.
It must be said there are probably 2 dozen more names that could be listed in the F Tier. Check out the individual team maps as they are published for those, but suffice to say that, when a pitcher goes down in flames in the WBL, they burn awfully bright.