Baseball The Way It Never Was

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TWIWBL 100.2: Year 3, Week 3 – Bill James Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Memphis Red Sox10-8.556
Detroit Wolverines9-10.4741.5
New York Black Yankees9-10.4741.5
Baltimore Black Sox6-11.3533.5
Cleveland Spiders5-12.2944.5
Bill James Division | 22 April

Baltimore Black Sox

Ned Garvin struck out 11 in 6 innings at Portland — his 2nd double-digit strikeout game of the season.

Cleveland Spiders

Bob Feller fanned 13 in 7 innings, but left trailing 3-2 before Cleveland came from behind to beat Chicago, 6-5.

Bill Steen struck out 11 in an 11-2 win over Baltimore.

Terry Adams–Cleveland’s closer for the past 2 years–has begun a rehab assignment, and should be back this week. It was assumed that, when Adams went down, Aroldis Chapman would take over for the Spiders–2 blown saves and a loss later, and Cleveland can’t get their closer back soon enough.

Detroit Wolverines

Buddy Napier will miss about a month, with Jack Wilson being recalled to cover some middle innings out of the bullpen.

Wander Franco stays on his rehab assignment for now: the Wolverines can’t justify moving on from Damion Easley, who is slashing 500/579/750 as Franco’s utility IF replacement.

Justin Verlander struck out 10 in 6 innings, but surrendering 2 homeruns led to a loss. Verlander continues to frustrate Detroit, alternating between flashes of intense potential and abject failure–he’s 0-1 with a 7.23 ERA.

Memphis Red Sox

The enigma known as Skel Roach will miss about 5 weeks. LHP Jon Lester was recalled from AAA.

Ted Williams hit 2 out in consecutive games, first powering an 8-0 win over New York, then leading a wild 14-10 win over the Black Yankees.

New York Black Yankees

Lou Gehrig drove in 6 in the that 14-10 loss to Memphis.

Rogers Hornsby, who entered the day hitting .122, went 6-for-6 with 3 homeruns and 8 RBI, setting the AL regular-season record for hits in a game doing it. Hornsby ended the day with 16 total bases in a 16-6 win at San Francisco.

Year III Season Preview: Detroit Wolverines

State of the Franchise

team logo

Ask Detroit and they’ll tell you, without blinking, that the Wolverines are the real class of the Bill James Division — and that nobody outside the Motor City gives them a lick of credit. This is a club that went to Game 7 of the 2000 Whirled Series, owns the best player alive, and has made the playoffs in both years of the league’s existence. Of course, it is also a club that has finished a game under .500 and has never won the division, because the same thing keeps happening: the offense is a fireworks show, the pitching a house fire.

The window here isn’t measured in years. It’s measured in Ty Cobb, 22 years old and the best player on the planet, and every decision bends toward getting the most out of the time they have with him. Hank Greenberg (25) and Al Kaline (22) fill out a young, ferocious core, and Hal Newhouser (22) is the live arm they hope comes good. Greenberg looks content in Cobb’s enormous shadow. Kaline — a .957-OPS force in his own right — is the one to watch, the second star who may, in time, want a little light of his own.

Detroit believes in the box score: home runs, RBI, wins and losses, and their front office will tell you to take your fancy-ass WAR and shove it. Unless, of course, you’re referring to Cobb’s 9.3 watermark last season. That they believe in. The creed has built a genuinely fearsome lineup and, year after year, the wrong pitching staff.

Two seasons in, 2002 is less a campaign than an audition: find a dependable rotation — hell, even half a dependable rotation — or watch the Cobb clock start forcing hard choices.

2001 Revisited

We sold you a very well-balanced team last spring, a championship contender, with only some fussing about an aging supporting cast and a shaky middle infield. Half right. The middle infield fixed itself — Charlie Gehringer took second base and a deadline trade landed Bobby Wallace at short — and the aging role players mostly held.

What we badly undersold was the imbalance. This was not a balanced team. It was a historic offense bolted to a broken staff.

The bats were absurd. Cobb hit 386/440/841 with 54 homers, 72 doubles, 140 RBI, 157 runs and 82 steals (!), taking the Mel Trench Award and the All Rounder Award. Greenberg mashed 59 home runs and won a Gold Glove at first. At 21, Kaline claimed an everyday outfield job and posted that .957 OPS. Oscar Gamble carried a .396 on-base with 35 bombs, Ernie Lombardi and Bob Bailey combined for 53 homers, and a 35-year-old rookie named Juan Beníquez slugged his way to an .888 OPS.

They even had someone out-hit Cobb: J. D. Martinez posted a 1.291 OPS (.010 over Cobb’s) on 321/389/902 with 19 homers. Only 41 G, but still, that’s impressive.

Then there was the pitching. 28 arms cycled through the staff. Exactly 2 of them — Newhouser and closer Mike Henneman — finished with an ERA under 5.00, and nobody posted a WHIP under 1.30. Justin Verlander, Johnny Marcum, and a parade of others took the ball and got hammered. 81-82, 3rd place, and a first-round wild-card exit to San Francisco in which, of course, the arms got torched.

The lesson repeats until it’s learned: you cannot outscore a fire.

Key Changes

In:
Out: Logan Hensley (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Wander Franco

Best Case for 2002

One arm holds. Newhouser repeats his organizational Pitcher of the Year form, Verlander’s long evaluation finally resolves into a real number 2, or one of the kids — Pete Conway, the loud-spring wildcard Sid Fernandez, someone else — simply pitches.

That’s it. A lineup this good doesn’t need a great staff, only a competent one. Give Cobb, Greenberg, and Kaline a rotation that survives October, let Henneman anchor the deepest bullpen the club has ever had, and Detroit runs off with a soft division and, for once, might win a series instead of giving it away on the mound.

Worst Case for 2002

The rotation dies on schedule. Newhouser stays intermittent, Verlander stays combustible, the 35-year-old Connie Johnson breaks down, and a lineup that is louder on the scoreboard than in the WAR column can’t paper over a staff-wide 5.00. Detroit effectively treads water for a 2nd consecutive year, making that the true reality, and the championship challenge of 2000 a dim memory.

That outcome results in some churn as well. With Cobb’s prime too precious to waste and a surplus of bats the only currency on hand, the untouchable core stops being untouchable. Pieces move — and that, of course, is a crapshoot. Finally, there is Cobb himself: as the losing sets in, the proud, prickly identity curdles, and the fierce competitor in right field starts looking like something meaner.

Key Questions

  • Can they even recognize an ace? Detroit spends capital on pitching freely, buying Connie Johnson and Troy Percival last summer alone. It’s about evaluation. The Wolverines keep buying arms off a good month and watching them evaporate. Verlander is the test case: future rotation anchor, or future carpenter? Detroit has to answer that correctly, and its whole short history says it doesn’t do that so well.
  • Who plays the outfield and DH — and does Chili Davis finally get moved? With Cobb, Kaline, and Gamble spoken for and J. D. Martinez demanding at-bats, there’s a genuine logjam, and Chili Davis has already lost it — he opens the year on the bench, a big power name without a slot in the standard lineups. He’s the obvious piece to sell, Detroit keeps seeing his power track record, and keeps hesitating. Moving him means the front office finally might glance beyond the box score.
  • Who’s the shortstop — and the second baseman — in 2 years? Wallace is 35 and brittle, a 1-year bridge with no heir in the system; some will point to Wander Franco, who breaks camp at 20, but carries some conduct questions. Gehringer looks OK at 2B, but they’ve thought that before (Joe Wood, Tony Lazzeri, Damion Easley, etc, etc).

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CLombardi C · V. Martinez · Carrigan
1BGreenberg A · Beníquez C
2BGehringer C
SSWallace C · Franco
3BBailey C
LFGamble B
CFKaline B
RFCobb S · Davis C
DHJ. D. Martinez
SPNewhouser · Root F · Johnson · Verlander F · Conway · Fernandez · Marcum (IL)
RPHenneman D (CL) · Percival D · Bradford D · Napier C

The catching depth is real and quietly unusual — most teams don’t carry 3 backstops, and those that do tend not to anticipate solid contributions from all of them.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power1B Hank GreenbergLF Wes Covington
Batting EyeLF Oscar GambleLF Jack Cust
ContactRF Ty CobbSS Mike Caruso
Running SpeedRF Ty CobbCF Shane Victorino; RP Charlie Hilsey
Base StealingRF Ty CobbSS Ray Chapman; 3B Joe Werrick
IF Defense1B Hank Greenberg2B Hobe Ferris
OF DefenseRF Ty CobbRF Chris Denorfia
StuffSP Hal NewhouserRP John Hiller
ControlSP Dick DonovanRP Bill Gallagher
VelocityRP Troy Percival; SP Justin VerlanderRP Felipe Vázquez; RP Joakim Soria

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (54)23SPJohn Healy
2 (85)23CFMoose McCormick
3 (90)23SPFrank Lary
4 (94)19CBill Freehan

Others: P George Mullin, P Milt Pappas, P Jack F Wilson, IF Ray Chapman, OF Riley Greene.

A year ago this list was topped by 2 names now anchoring the everyday lineup — Kaline, last spring’s No. 1 prospect, and Gehringer at No. 4. A third, Emil Yde was shipped out to Baltimore. What replaced them is, for once, the right shape: the system ranks 18th and thin, but half the ranked names are armsJohn Healy (A) and Frank Lary (AA). The published order is not the org’s own, though: the name Detroit rates highest is the one the list ranks lowest, 19-year-old catcher Bill Freehan, and it thinks a good deal more of recent draft pick Riley Greene than his absence would suggest.

There are some other interesting arms: George Mullin struck out 172 across Double-A and Triple-A last year at 24, Milt Pappas put up 124 innings of 4.21 ball, and Jack F Wilson punched out 105 in 108 innings at Triple-A. None of them is a front-of-rotation answer and the run prevention is ordinary across the board. But competence is the goal, and they just might clear that bar.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeTony Lazzeri, 37 (AA)Billy Hoeft, 19 (AAA)
HeightChad Bradford, 6’5″Charlie Hilsey, 5’7″ (A)
OPSTy Cobb, 1.281Bill Freehan, .368 (A)
HRHank Greenberg, 59George Mullin, 1 (AA)
SBTy Cobb, 82
WAR (bat)Ty Cobb, 9.3Bill Freehan, −2.0 (A)
WCharlie Root, 11
SVFrank Lary, 29 (A)
ERAMickey Lolich, 2.95 (A)Justin Verlander, 6.48
WAR (pit)George Mullin, 4.0 (AA)Troy Percival, −1.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

WBL Year III Statistics

I needed a place to hold statistics that aren’t easily displayed in OOTP. Most of these are game-level performances.

For complete statistics, poke around on the WBL Stats Page.

Batting Statistics

2+ 3B Games

3+ 2B Games

3. Lou Gehrig (NYY); Grant Johnson (NYG); Al Kaline (DET); JD Martinez (DET); Jackie Robinson (BRK); Robin Yount (MCG).

3+ HBP Games

3. Melky Cabrera (BBB).

3+ HR Games

3. Gary Carter (OTT); Oscar Charleston (IND); Lou Gehrig (NYY); Rogers Hornsby (NYY).

3+ OF Assists

4+ BB Games

4+ CS Games

4+ Run Games

4. Oscar Charleston (IND); Roy White (BKR); Ted Williams (MEM).

4+ SB Games

5+ Hit Games

6. Rogers Hornsby (NYY).
5. Dan Brouthers (BRK); Charles Rogan (PHI).

5+ SO Games

5. Lou Gehrig (NYY); Evan Longoria (CLE).

6+ RBI Games

8. Lou Gehrig (NYY); Rogers Hornsby (NYY).
6. Gary Carter (OTT).

Cycles

Longest HRs

{ OOTP has, for a long time had a problem with surreally long HR distances. So we threw math at it–these distances are modified based on the game’s projected exit velocity, which puts a cap on how far the ball could actually travel. Far more realistic. }

495. Duke Snider (BRK); Willie Stargell (HOM).
481. Andrew Payne (PHI).
480. Ted Williams (MEM).
475. Jim Ray Hart (NYG).
472. Eric Davis (NYY).
471. Eric Davis (NYY); Mickey Mantle (NYY).
465. Rico Carty (PHI); Mike Scioscia (PHI).

Pitching Statistics

80+ Game Scores

90. Whitey Ford (NYY).
89. Waite Hoyt (CAG); Mickey Welch (KAN).
88. Christy Mathewson (NYG).
87. Old Hoss Radbourn (OTT).
84. Steve Carlton (PHI); José Méndez (MCG).
83. Walter Johnson (POR).
82. Walter Johnson (POR); JM Ward (PHI).
80. Watty Clark (SFS).

10+ Strikeout Games

13. Bob Feller (CLE); Lefty Grove (SFS); Christy Mathewson (NYG); Walter Johnson (POR).
12. Lefty Grove (SFS); Waite Hoyt (CAG); Pat Malone (CLE).
11. Steve Carlton (PHI); Ned Garvin (BAL); Bump Hadley (SFS); Hardie Henderson (PHI); Walter Johnson (PR); Joseíto Muñoz (POR); Luis Padrón (IND); Charlie Root (DET); Bob Shawkey (KAN); Bill Steen (CLE).
10. Ned Garvin (BAL); Walter Johnson (POR); Pat Malone (CLE); Christy Mathewson (NYG); Toad Ramsey (HOU); Sam Streeter x2 (CAG); Fernando Valenzuela (BRK); Justin Verlander (DET); Jim Whitney (MCG); Smokey Joe Wood x2 (KAN); Cy Young (CLE).

8+ Walk Games

Shutouts

1 Hit. Mark Buehrle (CAG, 6 IP); Whitey Ford (NYY).
2 Hit. Mickey Welch (KAN).

Shutouts (Combined)

1 Hit. Old Hoss Radbourn / Kevin Gross / Ryan Dempster / Billy Koch (OTT).
2 Hits. Old Hoss Radbourn (OTT).
3 Hits. David Price / Babe Adams (HOM, 7 IP); Charlie Root / Dick Donovan / Jason Frasor / Troy Percival (DET); Dave Righetti / George Jeffcoat / Vito Tamulis / Brian Wilson (NYG); Whitey Ford / Hoyt Wilhelm / Goose Gossage (NYY); Jock Menefee / Jeff Reardon / Lee Smith (KAN); Pete Donohue / Masahiro Tanaka / Kent Tekulve / Brian Wilson (NYG; 10 IP); Bump Hadley / Charlie Ferguson (SFS); Watty Clark / Joe Nathan (SFS); Waite Hoyt / AJ Minter (CAG).
4 Hits. Mel Harder / Whit Wyatt / Ron Reed / Aroldis Chapman / Terry Adams (CLE); Brett Anderson / Jimmy Key / Dellin Betances / Karl Spooner / Ed Bauta (HOD); Toad Ramsey / Jim Kern / Billy Wagner / Tug McGraw (HOU).
5 Hits. Cy Young / Ron Reed / Cory Gearrin (CLE); Greg Maddux / Kerry Ligtenberg / Bruce Chen / Akinori Otuska / Harley Young (BBB); Waite Hoyt / Wilbur Wood / Will Smith (CAG).

TWIWBL 90.5: Off Season Review – Detroit Wolverines

81 - 82, .497 pct.
3rd in Bill James Division, 9.5 GB
Lost to SFS 4-3 in AL Wild Card

Overall

One of 2 teams to make the playoffs in each of the 2 WBL seasons, the Wolverines still seem like they are a team under construction. Like so many other franchises, it feels like it all comes down to the pitching, and whether they can put together a rotation that delivers consistently.

On offense, it’s all about Ty Cobb: as long as the 21 year old phenom is healthy, Detroit will score runs. Cobb’s not alone, and this year his supporting cast took a leap forward, as the excellence of Hank Greenberg, Oscar Gamble, and Al Kaline was supported by an overall solid group.

But the issue is really in the rotation where something between the dependable mediocrity of Charlie Root and the occasional brilliance of Hal Newhouser needs to emerge.

What Went Right

Ty Cobb, the nearly unanimous AL Brock Rutherford Award winner, was utterly ridiculous, slashing 386/440/841, hitting 72 doubles and 54 homeruns, driving in 140, and scoring 157 times. And, oh yeah, 82 steals. Just ridiculous.

Hank Greenberg raised his game, posting a 1.024 OPS with numbers that would have led most teams (59 homeruns and a 266/352/672 slash line).

Al Kaline laid a strong claim to being Detroit’s RF for years to come, with a .957 OPS and solid defense.

JD Martinez forced his way into the lineup again and again, managing (in 41 games) an OPS even higher than Cobb’s via a 321/389/902 slash line–that’s right, a .902 SLG curtesy of 19 homeruns in 126 PAs.

Oscar Gamble continued to be surprisingly effective, with an OBP nearly .400 and 35 homeruns. Perhaps even more surprising, 35 year old Juan Beníquez refused to give up his starting spot, posting an .888 OPS as a late career rookie.

Ernie Lombardi and Bob Bailey were quite solid at C and 3B respectively, combining for 53 homeruns and 142 RBIs.

In limited action, Tony Lazzeri and Ray Chapman each hit well, providing a short term solution to the middle infield. The long term solutions–Charlie Gehringer at 2B and Bobby Wallace at SS–were solid enough to settle the positions heading into the Spring.

What, you want a positive from the pitching staff? I’m looking, I really am.

Ah! Pete Conway. Conway was totally unheralded coming into the season, and finished 9-3, albeit with pedestrian looking WHIP and ERA (1.38 and 5.18, respectively).

I guess Hal Newhouser was a bright spot as well as the only starter with an ERA under 5.00, and the occasional bursts of brilliance. If Newhouser’s control can improve slightly, he could develop into a deserved front of rotation starter.

Mike Henneman was solid at closer after returning from injury.

That’s about it.

ALL STARS

Ed Bailey (subsequently traded)
Ty Cobb
MAJOR AWARDS

Ty Cobb, AL Mel Trench Award; AL All Rounder Award; All AL Team; AL DH Silver Slugger
Hank Greenberg, AL 1B Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONS

Juan Beníquez, AL All Rookie Team
Ty Cobb, AL 25 & Under Team; AL 23 & Under Team; AL 21 & Under Team
Pete Conway, AL 21 & Under Team
Oscar Gamble, AL Over 30 Team
Charlie Gehringer, AL All Rookie Team
Hank Greenberg, AL 25 & Under Team
Billy Hoeft, AL All Rookie 2nd Team; AL 21 & Under Team
Connie Johnson, AL Over 30 Team
Al Kaline, AL All Rookie Team
Charlie Root, AL Over 30 Team
Bobby Wallace, AL Over 30 Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Ty Cobb, MVP
Hal Newhouser, Pitcher of the Year
Oscar Gamble, Heart & Soul
Ernie Lombardi, Fan Favorite

Mickey Lolich, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Wes Covington, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Offensively, what went wrong was largely solved by season’s end: the middle infield was a bit of a mess, as Billy Nash, Joe Wood, and George Davis all struggled. But Charlie Gehringer was acceptable at 2B and the trade for Bobby Wallace should solve SS, especially with the promising play of Ray Chapman and Tony Lazzeri at both positions.

Likewise, catching could have been an issue after Detroit traded away all star Ed Bailey, but Ernie Lombardi stepped into a nearly full time role as smoothly as the Wolverines could have hoped.

Roughly 25 pitchers made their way through Detroit, so that’s an indication that quite a bit went wrong.

We can start with Johnny Marcum, Si Johnson, and Justin Verlander, each given at least a half-dozen starts over the course of the season and each getting hammered, although Verlander ate up enough innings to accumulate some useful WAR.

Only 2 pitchers (nominal ace Hal Newhouser and closer Mike Henneman) managed ERA’s under 5.00 and nobody–nobody–had a WHIP under 1.3. The staff was just not good, with Joakim Soria, Vernon Wilshire, George Bechtel, Billy Hoeft, and Ray Sadecki earning particularly poor marks.

’nuff said.

Transactions

March

P Claude Osteen & 1st Round Pick to HOD for 2B Charlie Gehringer & 3rd Round Pick.

Sure. I mean the 1st is a lot to give up, but Gehringer played well enough to look like a long-term solve at 2B for Detroit.

July

C Ed Bailey & P Claude Passeau to CLE for C Victor Martinez, P Bill Drake, & 3rd Round Pick.

An odd one: they traded arguably the best catcher in the league to a division rival, but got decent value in return, as Martinez–despite his struggles this year–could supplant Lombardi and Drake looks to have a WBL future.

August

P Gene Conley, P Bill Drake, P Emil Yde, OF Hub Collins, & 2nd Round Pick to BAL for IF Bobby Wallace & P Connie Johnson.

Drake’s stay was very brief in the end, as Detroit kept trying to balance future and present needs. They may have overpaid here, but Conley had totally imploded, Johnson retains some value and if they can get a few productive years out of Wallace, it will be fine.

P Dellin Betances, IF Robby Thompson, & 3rd Round Pick to NYG for P Steve Howe & P Troy Percival.

Thompson was pretty blocked, so this seems fine, especially if Percival sticks around for a bit.

Positional Overview

C

Next year should be a mixture of Ernie Lombardi and Victor Martinez, but they’re really just holding space until 18 year old Bill Freehan develops a bit more.

Bill Carrigan and Johnny Gooch are available if reinforcements are needed, although Derek Norris and Johnny Romano project to have more upside.

1B

Hank Greenberg is just entering his prime, and should have this locked down for a while. Juan Beníquez can fill in here, and veteran minor leaguer Wes Covington will get a look as well.

2B

Feels like Charlie Gehringer has seized this, but there are options, with Ray Chapman, George Davis, Tony Lazzeri, Billy Nash, and Damion Easley all able to play here. Chapman, at 23, is the only option younger than Gehringer, who is 25.

SS

The Wolverines gave up a bunch of talent for Bobby Wallace, with clear expectations that, at 35, he has at least a few years left. We’ll see.

It’s essentially the same crew behind him as at 2nd base, with the addition of the somewhat troubled, yet immensely talented, Wander Franco.

3B

Wallace can play here as well, but a mixture of Bob Bailey and Juan Beníquez are likely to see the bulk of the time.

Minor League vet Jimmy Collins may get a look as well, but that’s more a reward for time served than anything else.

LF/RF

For now, Oscar Gamble and Al Kaline, although a desire to get Ty Cobb on the field may cut into Gamble’s time a bit.

There are some useful pieces if needed: Bob Fothergill, Chuck Hinton, Geoff Jenkins, even Ron Swoboda.

CF

Detroit will still trot out Chili Davis here. He’s good enough at the plate, and they can live with the defense for a while. If they need help from the minors, it’s probably Adolfo Phillips or Johnny Mostil, although Kaline may be able to play here as well (which would solve the Cobb dilemma nicely).

DH

It’s Ty Cobb most days, but the Wolverines are committed to getting JD Martinez in the lineup as much as possible, so some of the OF variant mentioned above may be needed.

SP

This is the question.

Right now, this looks like Hal Newhouser, Connie Johnson, Charlie Root, Pete Conway, and an open competition with Justin Verlander and Johnny Marcum most likely to take the 5th spot.

And if you squint, maybe, just maybe, that could be a solid rotation. But the Wolverines are concerned.

George Mullin, George Bechtel, and Logan Hensley will get a look during the Spring as well, as will Mickey Lolich.

RP

The bullpen should be good, with a shot at being excellent. Mike Henneman has a shot at being among the best in the league if he can stay healthy, and the setup crew of Buddy Napier and Chad Bradford has been strongly bolstered through the arrival of Steve Howe and Troy Percival.

So, pretty settled. Hence all the focus on the starters.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 0
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 1

This doesn’t look like the year the Wolverines replenish their farm system–perhaps more importantly, they don’t really have the draft capital to use for starting pitching.

TWIWBL 87.13: The Starters

On to the starters! Same Tier system.

This is everyone who qualified for the ERA crown, plus a heaping handful of others who made at least 10 starts during the season. If a player had less than 162 innings, they are (a) probably knocked down a tier and (b) their name is prefaced by a * and italicized.

We’ve leaned on valuing IP in these rankings, perhaps a bit too much. But these are your starters, and they need to show up, game after game. It also means the Tiers are a little different: there are D-Tier pitchers here that you would welcome at the back end of your rotation, and it’s really only some of them, and the F Tier, that are truly an issue.

Our usual practices prevail: bold for top 3 and italics for bottom 3. Pitchers with below 162 IP aren’t included in the top/bottom markers.

#S Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
NLKCMA. Rube Foster2411-83.302041.02.189 BA
.219 BABIP
0.7 HR/9
3.63 FIP
NLINDLuis Padrón2223-33.222351.04220 K
.192 BA
.225 BABIP
NLHOUToad Ramsey2316-103.232230.97282 K
.182 BA
11.4 K/9
3.8 K/BB
3.40 FIP

Just look at all that bold.

It’s been these 3 all year, and there’s a hair’s breadth between them. The analytics like Toad Ramsey, but Luis Padrón‘s record is stunning and while his ERA crown came by the absolute thinnest of margins, it did come.

Knuckleballers are always a bit unpredictable season-to-season, and it may very well be that A. Rube Foster has the best career of these three. But great things are expected of each of them.

#A Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALSFSLefty Grove2716-64.402091.15230 K
2.2 BB/9
9.9 K/9
4.4 K/BB
ALMCGJosé Méndez2313-64.532331.11201 K
2.2 BB/9
NLBRKFernando Valenzuela2414-53.691631.081 Sv; 4 H
BBB/
MCG
Jim Whitney2410-73.832021.101 Sv; 2 H
NLBRKSmokey Joe Williams2412-133.932021.230.8 HR/9
3.55 FIP
NLKCMSmokey Joe Wood2215-124.111911.13

Lefty Grove and Smokey Joe Williams each have an argument to move up a tier, but are held back, Grove’s instance by his ERA, in Williams’ by his record. Still, they are the class of this group.

If José Méndez hadn’t led the league in innings, he would probably drop down a level, but we’re nitpicking: these are staff aces on most teams. Note that Miami, Brooklyn, and Kansas City already have 2 pitchers each on this list.

#B Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALLAABrett Anderson2211-64.341891.12
NLHOU* Ice Box Chamberlain194-43.561091.131 Sv; 1 H
NLHOURoger Clemens2517-103.712111.13
ALSFSBump Hadley2318-64.101891.180.9 HR/9
4.2 BB/9
NLPHIHardie Henderson2118-123.782091.234.2 BB/9
1.7 KK/B
NLBRKOrel Hershiser2719-53.691851.21
NLHOD* Kyle Peterson228-33.801071.16
ALNYYAndy Pettitte3318-94.432011.21
ALSFSEddie Plank2720-74.422101.31
ALCAGEd Walsh2510-113.942051.151 Sv
201 K
.225 BABIP

Hardie Henderson, Roger Clemens, and perhaps Eddie Plank (but that would be giving an awful lot of weight on 20 victories) could all be nudged up, but I’m comfortable with this. These are all front of rotation hurlers, with the only real surprise being Brett Anderson, who quietly excelled in a difficult year for Los Angeles. Ed Walsh, last year’s Rookie of the Year, avoided the sophomore slump entirely.

If you’re looking for skepticism, both Ice Box Chamberlain (due to age) and Kyle Peterson (due to coming out of nowhere) are decent bets to regress.

#C Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALPORWalter Ball268-74.261421.20
NLPHISteve Carlton2512-135.051871.24
NLINDJohnny Cueto2912-144.622121.14
NLHOM* Doug Drabek256-84.761471.171 H
NLBRKDon Drysdale2211-85.661861.28
ALLAADwight Gooden2211-114.361941.29
ALNYYRon Guidry2811-74.512081.24251 K
10.9 K/9
NLOTTRoy Halladay2915-95.171951.262.2 BB/9
ALPORWalter Johnson2013-124.282141.28
NLBRK* Sandy Koufax216-34.931191.162 H
ALMEMStubby Overmire2513-104.722121.266.1 K/9
NLNYGGaylord Perry2212-154.341891.12
NLKCMJosé Rijo268-125.091791.26
NLPHICharles Rogan2712-94.511881.24
ALCLEBill Steen2613-104.711931.331.9 K/BB
NLNYGDon Sutton2517-85.231741.25
NLPHIJM Ward206-105.011961.16

Gaylord Perry and JM Ward were perhaps the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year: a bit of good fortune, and either could be several tiers above. If anyone is ranked too highly, it’s probably Bill Steen. There are a lot of names here that could easily take a step forward–Steve Carlton, Don Drysdale, and Walter Johnson especially.

Sandy Koufax blossomed in the bullpen after losing his rotation spot, but Brooklyn is likely to try him again as a starter next season.

Joe Rogan is just a remarkable talent. Everyone else here has great value solely from being on the mound: add Rogan’s bat and … yoikes.

#D Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALMEMLen Barker2511-124.991801.44
ALSFS* Tommy Bridges376-75.381461.21
ALPORBert Blyleven2110-115.032041.32
NLKCMFrank Castillo2312-75.211931.32
ALSFS* Watty Clark266-44.021341.302 H
NLPHI* Ray Collins244-74.621211.271 H
ALCLE* Bob Feller2013-34.301531.34
NLBBB* Lefty Gomez279-94.901541.302 H
ALNYY/
CAG
Waite Hoyt2411-44.891691.444.1 BB/9
NLBRKFrank Knauss2312-64.551801.34
NLHOMFrancisco Liriano2310-125.031811.38
NLBBBGreg Maddux2310-145.351951.2859 HRA
.225 BABIP
6.50 FIP
ALBALDennis Martínez2412-85.122021.42
NLNYGChristy Mathewson227-165.612101.40207 K
ALPOR* Joseíto Muñoz204-44.561011.371 Sv; 2 H
ALBAL* Jim Palmer258-84.881381.371 H
NLBBBAlejandro Peña268-115.591801.31
NLHOMBilly Pierce3010-115.771731.36
NLHOD* Rick Reuschel308-84.611351.311 Sv; 1 H
NLHODBob Rush2411-95.281861.322 H
NLHODCC Sabathia285-155.892021.351 Sv; 1 H
64 HRA
3.2 HR/9
6.90 FIP
ALCAGBen Sheets276-125.881651.321 H
NLOTT* Bill Smith2610-33.771241.351 H
NLHOUStephen Strasburg259-105.871691.37
NLHODJack Taylor2612-105.901921.42.291 BA
6.4 K/9
ALCLECy Young2515-95.381991.39.307 BABIP

There are some absolute conundrums here. Greg Maddux‘s issues are obvious in the final column: his BABIP is top-3 in the league, showing just how good his stuff is. But he has to keep the ball in the ballpark. At least once in a while.

Christy Mathewson and Cy Young seem like they could do more than be massive inning eaters, but they need to be harder to hit to make the jump forward. But pitching is weird: Jack Taylor and Gerrit Cole (see below) were among the best on the mound last season, and struggled mightily this.

Bob Feller would warrant a bump as well with a few more solid starts.

#F Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAIPWHIPOther
ALCAGMark Buehrle318-125.111851.386.3 K/9
ALMEM* David Bush269-96.581491.32
ALLAAGerrit Cole267-156.361661.432.9 HR/9
6.52 FIP
ALMCGCole Hamels2511-126.181781.4263 HRA
.293 BA
3.2 HR/9
3.7 K/BB
NLNYG* Carl Hubbell266-105.751601.291 H
NLHOM* Cliff Lee308-45.301141.323 H
NLHOURoy Oswalt287-116.531811.49.295 BA
.305 BABIP
NLOTTCharles Radbourn2712-135.892021.35
ALDETCharlie Root3111-106.151991.4259 HRA
ALLAATom Seaver237-85.811641.44
BBB/
CAG
* Sam Streeter253-115.631231.34
ALPORDizzy Trout295-125.931621.504.1 BB/9
1.8 K/BB
ALDETJustin Verlander255-126.481691.52.310 BABIP
NLIND* Doc White275-126.551431.341 Sv; 3 H

Most of these issues are clear: too many homeruns, too many walks, way too many runners on the basepaths. Maybe Old Hoss Radbourn could argue to be one tier up. Maybe.

Other than that, it must be said there is a ton of talent here: Roy Oswalt, Tom Seaver, and Justin Verlander jump out as most likely to bounce back next year.

It must be said there are probably 2 dozen more names that could be listed in the F Tier. Check out the individual team maps as they are published for those, but suffice to say that, when a pitcher goes down in flames in the WBL, they burn awfully bright.

TWIWBL 84.6: AL Wild Card Series – Detroit Wolverines v San Francisco Sea Lions

#Game 1 – Thu, Oct 4

The opening game will see Detroit’s Charlie Root taking on San Francisco’s Lefty Grove.

With Hank Greenberg out, Detroit will insert JD Martinez into the lineup, with Juan Beníquez taking over for Greenberg at 1B. They’ll also opt for more offense, with both Ray Chapman and Tony Lazzeri starting the game at SS and 2B respectively.

The game was scoreless until Reggie Jackson took Root deep in the bottom of the 2nd. Rickey Henderson added a 2-run shot in the 3rd, increasing the lead to 3-0. And then it was Bobby Bonds‘ turn, with a 2 run shot for a 5-0 lead.

Meanwhile, Grove was dealing, allowing only 2 hits through 5 innings.

Root settled down and made it through 6 innings before yielding to Justin Verlander.

Oscar Gamble broke up the shutout with a homerun in the 8th, a blow that also chased Grove from the game.

In the top of the 9th, Ken Howell gave up a pinch-hit double to Victor Martinez, who was replaced by pinch-runner Charlie Gehringer. Howell uncorked consecutive wild pitches, and Gehringer came home, closing the score to 5-2. But Howell got out of it, and San Francisco opened the series with a win.

The story of the game was really Grove, who allowed 4 hits and 1 run while fanning 5 in 7+ innings.

DET 2 (Root 0-1) @ SFS 5 (Grove 1-0)
HRs: DET – Gamble (1); SFS – Jackson (1), Henderson (1), Bonds (1).
Box Score

#Game 2, Fri Oct 5

The mercurial Hal Newhouser will take the ball for Detroit, with San Francisco looking to Eddie Plank–1 of only 2 20 game winners this year in the WBL–to extend the Sea Lions’ edge to 2 games to none.

Again, Detroit is stacking its lineup, trading extra offense for Ty Cobb‘s lack of skill patrolling CF.

It looked like they would need all of that and more as Newhouser surrendered 5 consecutive hits to start the game: a double by Rickey Henderson, singles by Dick Lundy and Reggie Jackson, a 3 run homer from Jack Clark (Lundy had already brought Henderson home), and a single by Turkey Stearnes. Royce Clayton drove in 2 more before Henderson grounded out to end the inning with San Francisco up, 6-0.

Ernie Lombardi took Plank deep in the 3rd for Cleveland’s first hit, and Ray Chapman did the same for their second, making it 6-2. But Newhouser continued to struggle, eventually walking Henderson with the bases loaded, making the score 7-2 and bringing in Johnny Marcum from the Wolverines’ bullpen. Lundy greeted Marcum with a bases clearing triple, and it just got worse from there for Detroit.

By the time it was over, San Francisco had pounded out 23 hits and 17 runs, winning easily, 17-4.

Stearnes had 4 hits, Clark drove in 5, and Henderson scored 4 times in the rout.

DET 4 (Newhouser 0-1) @ SFS 17 (Plank 1-0)
HRs: DET – Lombardi (1), Chapman (1), Martinez (1); SFS – Clark (1), Stearnes (1).
Box Score

#Game 3, Sun Oct 7

Detroit will turn to Connie Johnson, trying to win their first game of the series while San Francisco will counter with Bump Hadley. Johnson has been fine since Detroit brought him over midseason, while Hadley is the third jewel in San Francisco’s rotation, finishing the season with a record of 18-6.

Detroit took an early lead, with Ty Cobb singling, stealing 2nd, and scoring on a Hank Greenberg single, but the lead was short-lived, as Turkey Stearnes doubled home Jack Clark. Stearnes would hit one out in the top of the 4th, giving San Francisco the 2-1 edge.

But in the bottom of the frame, Al Kaline hit 1 out with Oscar Gamble on first and Ernie Lombardi scored on a Chili Davis sac fly. 4-2 Detroit. Johnson was chased in the 5th via a Dick Lundy triple, a double from Rickey Henderson, and a 2-run shot from Reggie Jackson. Jimmie Foxx added an RBI single, and the Sea Lions now had a 2 run lead, 6-4.

Lundy added a solo shot in the top of the 6th, but Gamble answered with a homer of his own in the bottom of the inning. JD Martinez delivered a pinch-hit single, scoring a run and chasing Hadley. Watty Clark loaded the bases, bringing up Cobb, who delivered a 2-run single, and the see-saw kept moving, with Detroit now leading, 8-7.

Detroit added runs in the 8th on consecutive doubles from Martinez and Charlie Gehringer, followed by a massive moon shot from Bob Bailey, giving them a 4 run edge heading into the top of the 9th.

Chad Bradford allowed a couple baserunners, but was able to close it out, and Detroit clawed their way back into the series with their first win.

Cobb had 3 hits on the day, but the game was really won by the effectiveness of Troy Percival, Buddy Napier, and Bradford, who combined for 3 innings of 1-hit relief to end the game.

SFS 7 (Clark 0-1, 1 B Sv) @ DET 11 (Verlander 1-0; Percival 1 H; Napier 1 H)
HRs: SFS – Stearnes (2), Jackson (2), Lundy (1); DET – Kaline (1), Gamble (2), Bailey (1).
Box Score

#Game 4, Mon Oct 8

If Detroit is to fulfill the role of underdog, this is a pretty important game. The Wolverines would turn to the relatively unheralded Pete Conway–who might be their best starter right now–while the Sea Lions would trot out veteran Tim Hudson. The 38 year old Hudson has been dominant since his return from a long-term injury, so we may see just how much he has in the tank.

With Chili Davis still looking for his first hit in the postseason, Detroit opted for its offensive lineup with Ty Cobb taking over in center, opening the DH spot for JD Martinez.

The Sea Lions started hot: a Rickey Henderson triple followed by a sacrifice fly from Mickey Cochrane and a solo homerun from Reggie Jackson gave San Francisco an early 2-0 edge. Al Kaline got 1 back with a solo shot in the second, and Bob Bailey tied the game with a homerun of his own in the 3rd.

Jimmie Foxx was tossed from the game for arguing balls and strikes, bringing Sal Bando in for San Francisco at 3B.

Then Kaline took Hudson deep for his second of the game, putting Detroit on top, 4-2. Singles from Martinez and Bailey chased Hudson, with Martinez scoring on a sacrifice fly. 5-2.

Jackson went deep for the second time, but Kaline drove in another, keeping Detroit’s 3 run cushion at 6-3 through 5. Conway was done at that point, with Detroit turning the ball over to Jack Wilson, who kept San Francisco scoreless until the 8th, when Buddy Napier took the mound.

Napier gave up a single to Cochrane and a double to Jack Clark, bringing up Turkey Stearnes, who singled home a run, but Bando bounced into a double play, leaving the score 6-4. Which is where it stood when Chad Bradford came in for the save. He surrendered a double to Dick Lundy, but that was it and, improbably, the Wolverines have made it a best of 3 series.

Kaline drove in 4 on 3 hits for Detroit, and now has 3 homers and 7 RBIs in the series.

SFS 4 (Hudson 0-1) @ DET 6 (Conway 1-0; Bradford 1 Sv; Wilson 1 H; Napier 2 H)
HRs: SFS – Jackson (2) 4; DET – Kaline 2 (3), Bailey (2).
Box Score

#Game 5, Tue Oct 9

Suddenly, there is only 1 series still in doubt, and it wasn’t the one anyone would have predicted: we’re looking at a best 2-out-of-3 to see who plays Cleveland for the AL crown.

We would see a rematch of the first game, with Lefty Grove taking on Charlie Root.

Detroit continues to juggle its lineup, once again starting Ty Cobb in CF, but benching Juan Beníquez in this game in favor of Oscar Gamble‘s hot hand.

The Sea Lions scored 2 in the top of the first on a homerun from Jack Clark, but it could have been much worse: Ernie Lombardi threw out Rickey Henderson on an attempted steal, and Al Kaline gunned down Mickey Cochrane on the basepaths.

But Detroit answered immediately: Gamble doubled and scored on a single from Cobb. Cobb was gunned down trying to steal a pitch before Hank Greenberg hit a homerun to tie the game.

This feels like a wild one: Bobby Bonds walked, stole 2nd and 3rd, and scored on a passed ball then, in the 3rd, Henderson scored on a walk, steal, sacrifice bunt, and sacrifice fly. Bonds added a more traditional run–a solo homer– in the 4th, making it 5-2, San Francisco in a game where Grove was a little rough–8 strikeouts through 4 innings, but also 7 hits allowed.

A walk to Clark to lead off the 6th chased Root. His relief, Johnny Marcum, struggled, giving up a run-scoring single to Dick Lundy, and walked Henderson with the bases loaded for another. Steve Howe came in and finished the inning, but the damage was done: San Francisco now led 7-2.

Bob Bailey went deep in the 6th, but Grove finished out the frame and, from there, the game slowly slipped further away from Detroit.

Until Lombardi launched a grand slam in the 8th. That made it 12-8, but a 4 run gap is far better than the 9 runs they entered trailing by. Bonds added his 2nd of the game in the 9th, making the score 13-8 heading to the bottom of the frame.

Kaline launched a 3 run shot with 2 outs, closing to 13-11 and forcing the Sea Lions to bring in Rod Beck … who closed it out for the key Game 5 win for San Francisco.

Lundy had 4 hits and Bonds 3 while scoring 4 times. Jackson and Clark each drove in 3 with 2 homers each. For Detroit, Lombardi had 4 RBIs with the grandslam, and Kaline drove in 3 in the losing effort.

On the mound, Grove was just good enough, and Marcum, Howe, and Justin Verlander were all far too poor for the Wolverines.

SFS 13 (Grove 2-0; Beck 1 Sv) @ DET 11 (Root 0-2)
HRs: SFS – Clark 2 (3), Bonds 2 (3), Jackson (5); DET – Greenberg (1), Bailey (3), Lombardi (2), Kaline (4).
Box Score

#Game 6, Thu Oct 11

We’re back in San Francisco for the final 2 games of the series, with Detroit in a must-win situation. We’ll get the rematch from Game 2–Detroit’s Hal Newhouser, who was roughed up, against San Francisco’s 20 game winner, Eddie Plank.

Ray Chapman led off the game with a dinger, but Turkey Stearnes evened it up with an RBI single in the bottom of the 1st. Newhouser continued to struggle, giving up a 3 run shot to Jimmie Foxx in the bottom of the 3rd, which gives San Francisco a 4-1 lead.

Meanwhile, Plank was near-perfect into the 5th, when he gave his 2nd hit, another solo homer, this one to Oscar Gamble. A walk to Bob Bailey and a deep shot from JD Martinez later, and we were all tied at 4.

Newhouser made it into the 5th, making it a much better performance than his first start of the series, but still not up to par. Plank looked better, but the results spoke loudly: with 2 outs in the 7th, Martinez launched his 2nd of the day, putting the Wolverines up, 5-4.

Buddy Napier came in for Detroit in the bottom of the 8th, and a walk to Bobby Bonds and a hit from Cochrane created a difficult situation, but Napier got Henderson to bounce into a double play, ending the inning.

Nursing the 1 run lead, Chad Bradford gave up a 2 out single to Jack Clark, bringing up Stearnes, who was 3-for-4 on the day and hitting .520 for the series. But Bradford got the groundout, and we were heading to a Game 7!

This has to be thought of as a game that got away: San Francisco outhit Detroit 11-4, but the Sea Lions left 10 runners on base and could not deliver what was needed to clinch.

DET 5 (Marcum 1-0; Bradford 2 Sv; Howe 1 H; Napier 3 H) @ SFS 4 (Plank 1-1)
HRs: DET – Chapman 2, Martinez 2 (3); SFS – Foxx (1).
Box Score

#Game 7, Fri Oct 12

So, here we are: game seven for all the marbles with Detroit’s Connie Johnson taking on San Francisco’s Bump Hadley. As has been true the entire series, the matchup favors the Sea Lions, but the Wolverines don’t really care.

San Francisco struck first, with Jack Clark singling home Rickey Henderson, who had doubled and stole 3rd. That gave Clark 9 RBIs in the 7 games, certainly putting him in the MVP conversation. In the bottom of the 3rd, Dick Lundy singled, stole 2nd, moved to 3rd on a groundout, and scored on a sacrifice fly from Mickey Cochrane. That made it 2-0 San Francisco, with Hadley looking good.

In the top of the 5th, a walk and steal by Bob Bailey and an error at 3B by Jimmie Foxx put runners on the corners with 2 outs, but Hadley got Ray Chapman to fly out weakly to RF to end the inning.

Reggie Jackson–likely ahead of Clark in the MVP discussion–tripled home a run in the 5th, increasing the lead to 3-0 and Bobby Bonds made it 4-0 with a solo homer in the 6th, chasing Johnson. This is a must-win, so starter Pete Conway was called in from the pen.

Hadley had a 2 hit shutout through 8 innings, but he was also at 105 pitches in a Game 7, and the Sea Lions decided to take no chances, calling on closer Rod Beck. Back gave up a single to Oscar Gamble, but whiffed Ty Cobb, retired Gamble on a fielder’s choice, and retired Kaline on a fly to left.

So the Sea Lions do progress, but you have to tip your hat to Detroit, taking the best team in the league to a full 7 games.

Gamble had 2 of Detroit’s 3 hits, capping an excellent series (he, along with Kaline and Martinez were the best hitters for the Wolverines). Bonds and Royce Clayton had 2 hits each in the game, but this was really Hadley’s game, and arguably the finest starting performance of the postseason.

DET 0 (Johnson 0-1) @ SFS 4 (Hadley 1-0)
HRs: DET – none; SFS – Bonds (4).
Box Score

There were a lot of choices for MVP, prompted by the Sea Lions 3 games with double-digit runs. The award went to Dick Lundy, who hit .538 with 7 RBI’s in the series. But an argument could be made for Reggie Jackson, who had 5 homers and 11 RBI’s, or for Lefty Grove, who was 2-0 with an ERA under 3.00.

TWIWBL 71.3: Bill James Division

TeamW/LPctGB
New York Black Yankees52-32.619
Cleveland Spiders45-35.5635
Memphis Red Sox40-42.48811
Detroit Wolverines36-45.44414.5
Baltimore Black Sox35-48.42216.5
Bill James Division | 2 July

#Baltimore Black Sox

Buddy Groom started a rehab assignment, and should be joined at AAA by Bobby Wallace later in the week. Once Groom is ready, look for him to replace the struggling John Wetteland in the Black Sox bullpen.

Connie Johnson and Justin Hampson combined on a 2-hit shutout, blanking Portland 7-0. Johnson’s record improved to 5-6 and, perhaps more importantly, he made a strong argument for some more opportunities as a starter.

As expected, Wallace was able to start a rehab assignment at AAA, joining Groom, who still needs some time there before being recalled.

#Cleveland Spiders

Hank Gastright was returned to AAA, with Firpo Marberry being recalled from his rehab assignment.

Tris Speaker went deep twice, but Cleveland couldn’t hold off Miami, falling 11-7 to the Cuban Giants.

Needing a starter, the Spiders returned Sergio Romo to AAA, recalling Wilbur Cooper. Faced in the same situation later in the week, Cooper went back down with Steve Gromek recalled to make his WBL debut.

The Spiders had themselves a day, battering Miami 21-0. Cy Young threw the complete game shutout, allowing 7 hits while fanning 9. But the story really was the offense, led by Ron Blomberg, who had 4 hits (including his 30th and 31st homeruns), drove in 6, and scored a WBL record 6 times. Evan Longoria drove in 7, and Longoria and Larry Doby each also had 4 hits. In addition to Blomberg’s 2, Longoria, Doby, and Louis Santop also hit homeruns.

Lance Berkman slammed 3 homeruns for the second time this season, but the Spiders couldn’t preserve a lead in the top of the 9th, losing to Los Angeles, 8-7.

Berkman may be the hottest hitter in the league right now, as he hit another 2 out in a game Cleveland won in the bottom of the 12th on a solo shot from Johnny Bates, triumphing over Los Angeles, 6-5.

#Detroit Wolverines

Pete Conway will miss over a month with a strained oblique muscle. Claude Passeau returned to the Wolverines’ bullpen from AAA.

Both Billy Hoeft and Mike Griffin began rehab assignments, looking to return next week. Later in the week, Buddy Napier returned to the injured list, expected to miss about a month, opening a spot for Hoeft’s return.

Justin Verlander closed the first half out strong, combining with Hoeft and Chad Bradford on a 3-hit shutout of Memphis. Al Kaline and Bob Bailey went deep for the Wolverines, and Ty Cobb had 2 hits to nudge his average back over .400 in the 7-0 victory.

#Memphis Red Sox

Derek Lowe returned to AAA with Skel Roach‘s recall from a rehab assignment.

Gabby Hartnett went deep twice, leading Memphis to a 10-5 victory over the Black Yankees. Manny Ramírez did the same, homering twice in a 7-3 win over New York with Len Barker improving to 6-9 with a solid outing.

#New York Black Yankees

That was fast. There was a lot of optimism around Roy Evans‘ promotion to the Black Yankees. 3 games, 4 IP, and a 27.00 ERA later, he’s back in AAA with AJ Burnett returning to the fold.

Could the answer to the back end of the Black Yankees’ rotation be … Herm Wehmeier? Wehmeier combined with Goose Gossage on a 4-hit shutout of Memphis, improving to 4-0 on the year with Gossage picking up his 10th save in the 9-0 whitewashing.

Eric Davis hit 2 out and Babe Ruth added his league-leading 41st as the Black Yankees rode a strong outing from Andy Pettitte to beat Baltimore, 12-2. Pettitte improved to 10-5 on the year. However, Ruth was plunked on the hip in the game, and will miss some time–thankfully, it looks like only a few days.

Mike Schmidt went deep twice and Thurman Munson and Derek Jeter joined Schmidt with 3 hits each as the Black Yankees defeated Baltimore in 10 innings.

Don Mattingly will miss about a week, prompting the Black Yankees to place him on the DL and recall Josh Harrison from AAA.

TWIWBL 69.2 Spotlight on the Baltimore Black Sox

What a collapse. From Whirled Series champions to last place in their division, Baltimore is finding out what happens when your pitching staff goes from being among the best in the league to something very far away from that.

Baltimore inherits players from the St. Louis Browns and the Baltimore Orioles, as well as NeL players closely aligned with either the Baltimore Black Sox or the Baltimore Elite Giants.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

Baltimore is floundering in last place, 17.5 games behind the Black Yankees, with the worst record in the league. It’s just pretty miserable.

THE OFFENSE

The offense hasn’t been great, but it’s not really been the dominant issue for the Black Sox.

#What’s Going Right

Frank Robinson continues to argue for a spot among the truly elite of the league, slashing 300/389/623. But he doesn’t lead the Black Sox in HRs or RBIs: that falls to Gavvy Cravath, who is coming through as the largest free agent acquisition of the off season. Cravath has 21 homeruns and 54 RBIs, shading ahead of Robinson in both counts.

Cal Ripken, Jr. is tearing the cover off the ball in about 20 games, arguing for a lot more playing time.

Bryce Harper and Dan McGann continue to be well above-average with only a low BA for Harper and not enough power for McGann keeping them out of superstar status.

Miller Huggins has been surprisingly good, getting on base at a near .400 clip.

#What’s Not Going Right

Larry Gardner, excellent last year, has almost played himself out of a job at this point, struggling to get his OPS over .550. His lack of productivity and Bobby Wallace‘s injury are what opened the door for Ripken, Jr. and Huggins.

Baby Doll Jacobson has been quite average.

Paul Blair cannot hit, but we knew that, and he does continue to play stellar defense in CF.

THE PITCHING

The rotation is in total disarray and the bullpen isn’t much better.

#What’s Going Right

Um.

Ned Garvin is on the mound again.

Justin Hampson has been effective as an option versus lefties from the bullpen.

Mike Mussina has pitched well, far better than his 3-4, 5.11 numbers would indicate.

#What’s Not Going Right

Everything else.

Let’s start with the staff ace, Dennis Martínez, who has a decent 7-4 record, but has been hit pretty hard, with a 5.19 ERA and poor peripherals.

The rest of the starters have been so bad that the Black Sox refuse to name a #4 and #5 starter. Nobody else has an ERA under 5.00, and while Connie Johnson and Bill Byrd have decent analytics, the results have been relatively miserable.

Joe Beggs has 11 saves, but has also started 2 games, and looks betwixt and between no matter what his role.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

Not great.

Ripken, Jr. started the year in the minors, and he and Eddie Murray are clearly the future of the org. But there isn’t much beyond them–Bruce Bochte and Steve Brodie have some talent in the OF; Gunnar Henderson, Mark Belanger, and Asdrúbal Cabrera could offer some help on the IF; and … who knows, maybe Joe Dobson, maybe Jack Kramer on the mound?

WHAT’S NEEDED

A miracle. I mean, just not finishing in the basement would be something at this point. My guess is this team is a seller at the deadline, which may mean McGann moves on, clearing room for Murray.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

  • Not many: the twelve arms are–pending injury or spring training collapse–pretty much set, as is most of the lineup with only a single roster spot currently available, which would be filled by a reserve 2B? Ah, such arrogance …

FEATURED SERIES

Baltimore closes the week with 3 games at Detroit, which will be our focus.

Projected Starters

Baltimore starter listed first.

Dennis Martínez (7-4, 5.19) @ Johnny Marcum (5-2, 3.78)
Ned Garvin (3-3, 5.33) @ Justin Verlander (2-8, 66.06)
Mike Mussina (4-4, 5.31) @ Charlie Root (6-6, 4.89)

Game One

Dennis Martínez‘ struggles have been a major issue for Baltimore so far this year. El Presidente won 14 games with an ERA under 4.00 in their championship run. This year, his ERA is about a run-and-a-half higher, although he does have 7 wins.

Martínez struggled here, giving up 5 runs in 5 innings on 4 homers. But Cal Ripken Jr., Curt Blefary, and Manny Machado all hit one out for Baltimore, and both starters left after 5 innings, with the Black Sox up, 6-5.

The surprising Juan Beníquez drove in the go-ahead run for Detroit in the bottom of the 7th, setting up a great situation for the Wolverines, with Chad Bradford pitching the 8th and Mike Henneman the 9th. Bradford did his job, but Henneman gave up a pinch-hit homer to Ken Singleton giving Baltimore an edge that Joe Beggs–not terribly dependable so far this season–was able to preserve.

Both Ripken and Detroit’s Ed Bailey had 2 homers on the day.

BAL 8 (Sain 1-2; Beggs 12 Sv; Hampson 7 H; Dickey 1 Bsv) @ DET 7 (Henneman 4-2, 3 B Sv; Bradford 6 H)
HRs: BAL – Ripken, Jr. 2 (10), Machado (24), Blefary (15), Singleton (9); DET – C. Davis (18), E. Bailey 2 (16), Gamble (11).
Box Score

Detroit got some bad news after the game, with Henneman out for just over a month. Joakim Soria was recalled from AAA.

Game Two

With Ned Garvin not yet rested, the Black Sox turned to Jim Palmer for the matchup against Detroit’s struggling Justin Verlander.

Detroit took the lead in the bottom of the first, but both Palmer and Verlander were doing well early. Verlander gave up a lot of base runners, but it took a an RBI single from Miller Huggins for Baltimore to go ahead, 2-1, in the top of the 4th.

A solo shot from Oscar Gamble tied the game, but the Black Sox greeted Verlander’s replacement, Jack Wilson, for 4 runs, led by Frank Robinson‘s bases-clearing, 2-out double.

A double from Ty Cobb in the bottom of the 8th finally chased Palmer, who made a decent argument for a return to Baltimore’s rotation. His numbers won’t reflect that, as John Wetteland came in, walked a batter, and gave up a grand slam to Gamble followed by a solo shot to Chili Davis, tying the game.

More bad news for Detroit’s staff, as Billy Hoeft will miss a couple weeks.

With Chad Bradford and Sean Marshall each doing their jobs, we head into extra innings in this one.

In the 10th, Cal Ripken Jr. singled and was replaced by Baby Doll Jacobson, who stole second. Bobby Wallace delivered an RBI single for the lead, and Baltimore turned the game over to Joe Beggs. Ty Cobb, Hank Greenberg, and Gamble? No problem, and Baltimore holds on for the victory.

Most importantly, Marshall looked like his old self with 1.2 scoreless innings.

Gamble ended with 5 RBIs and Bobby Wallace had 3 hits on the day.

BAL 8 (Marshall 1-0; Beggs 13 Sv) @ DET 7 (Bradford 2-4) [10 Innings]
HRs: BAL – none; DET – Gamble 2 (13), C. Davis (19).
Box Score

Hoeft hit the DL, and Detroit recalled Mike Griffin.

Game Three

Last year, Baltimore’s Ned Garvin and Detroit’s Charlie Root were among the best hurlers in the league. This season … not so much. But both of shown flashes of their past ability, so we’ll see if Garvin can nail down the sweep or Root can salvage a game for the Wolverines.

Gavvy Cravath put Baltimore in front 1-0 in the 2nd with his 22nd homer of the season. That wasn’t terribly surprising, but Paul Blair‘s 8th of the year, a 3 run shot, was, giving the Black Sox a 4-0 edge.

Garvin was unable to hold it, though, as a series of walks and singles brought Detroit back to within 1 at 4-3. Garvin loaded the bases in the 3rd as well, including his 6th walk of the game. For the second time on the day, George Davis came through with an RBI single, this time tying the game and chasing Garvin, who was replaced by Connie Johnson, who promptly walked in a run, putting Detroit up, 5-4.

Ty Cobb and Hank Greenberg hit back-to-back shots in the 4th, but Frank Robinson and Bryce Harper tied it up in the 5th with longballs of their own. That, and a short rain delay, chased Root.

In the top of the 7th, Cravath sent out his 2nd of the game, this one with the bases loaded. RBI’s from Blair and Miller Huggins made it 13-7. In this contest, it just might be enough …

Cravath hit his 3rd of the day and Justin Hampson and Johnny Sain were able to close it out. Cravath finished with 4 runs scored and 6 RBIs for Baltimore while Kaline was 4 for 4 for Detroit.

BAL 14 (Byrd 4-3) @ DET 7 (Bechtel 1-2)
HRs: BAL – Cravath 3 (24), Blair (8), Robinson (22), Harper (15); DET – Greenberg (26), Cobb (23).
Box Score

The game was a little rough, as Baltimore’s Bobby Wallace and Detroit’s Mike Griffin (on his WBL debut) had to leave via injury. Wallace was sent to the DL with light hitting IF Dave Anderson being recalled.

This gives Baltimore a 5 game winning streak, during which they are giving up over 7 runs a contest. So, yeah, it’s really been all about the offense. But if they can get some pitching, they can at least claw their way out of the basement. After that, who knows?

TWIWBL 65.3: Bill James Division

TeamW/LPctGB
New York Black Yankees29-16.644
Cleveland Spiders24-19.5584
Detroit Wolverines21-24.4678
Baltimore Black Sox18-27.40011
Memphis Red Sox16-28.36412.5
Bill James Division | 21 May

#Baltimore Black Sox

Mike Mussina started a rehab assignment with a hope of being back in the big leagues by the end of the week. Bobby Wallace will be out at least a week, prompting the Black Sox to place him on the DL, recalling Cal Ripken, Jr. from AAA.

Buddy Groom went on the 10 day DL with Mark Baldwin being recalled. John Wetteland will miss about a month with shoulder discomfort, further weakening the Black Sox bullpen, prompting Baltimore to recall Mussina from his rehab assignment a tad early.

Dan McGann hit two homeruns, but the Black Sox lost a wild 12 inning game to Miami, 12-11. Four Baltimore pitchers–Baldwin, Gregg Olson, Justin Hampson, and eventual loser John Tudor–blew saves on the night.

#Cleveland Spiders

Ron Blomberg‘s 16th homer of the year was a walkoff affair, giving the Spiders a 6-5 victory over Detroit.

That evidently inspired Boomer as he hit 3 more dingers in an 8-3 win. Blomberg isn’t having the MVP level campaign he did last year, but the power in his bat hasn’t reduced by much.

Hank Gastright headed to AAA with Stan Coveleski recalled from his rehab assignment.

#Detroit Wolverines

With an ERA over 8, Gene Conley lost his spot in the Wolverines’ rotation, leaving only Charlie Root, Justin Verlander, and Pete Conway as solid options for Detroit.

Bullpen management is so key … a strong start by Verlander was essentially wasted as a terribly fatigued bullpen was unable to hold a 9-2 lead. But, Detroit recovered: Billy Hoeft threw a solid 2 plus innings and an exhausted Mike Henneman added 2 shutout innings for the win with Oscar Gamble hitting a walkoff homerun in the bottom of the 12th. Juan Beníquez continues to demand additional playing time, finishing the game with 3 hits and 4 RBIs.

The Wolverines are just pushing through arms at an alarming rate, sending Wilson Álvarez and Mickey Lolich back to AAA, recalling George Bechtel and Claude Passeau for their second stints with the big league club.

#Memphis Red Sox

The Red Sox traded Claude Ritchey for DJ LeMahieu, hoping to solidify their infield with Dobie Moore moving permanently to SS. Ritchey was excellent last season, but couldn’t nudge his OPS over .560 this year.

Derek Lowe has been absolutely hammered in 7 appearances for Memphis and, needing a starter, the Red Sox sent him to AAA with Eddie Cicotte being promoted.

#New York Black Yankees

New York recalled Waite Hoyt from a rehab assignment, with AJ Burnett heading to AAA. Hoyt will step right into the 5th slot in the Black Yankees’ rotation.

TWIWBL 63.2: Spotlight on the Detroit Wolverines

For the very first TWIWBL Spotlight, we’ll be looking at the Detroit Wolverines.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

Last year, the Wolverines won their division with the 2nd best record in baseball and lost to Baltimore in the Whirled Series in 7 games, so there are some expectations at play here.

So far, they’re underperforming, sitting 1 game under .500 at 16-17, 6.5 games behind the surging New York Black Yankees in the Bill James Division. At the most zoomed out, their pitching staff has been average, and while the offense has some significant bright spots, there are some issues to address.

THE OFFENSE

It’s a decent offense overall, with some power (but nobody in double figures in HR yet) and overall excellent OBP numbers (Detroit is 3rd in the league in walks). There is not much speed, outside of Ty Cobb, who has 13 steals.

#What’s Going Right

Ty Cobb. Remember, he’s still only 21 years old. And he’s slashing 398/462/858, leading the league in all 3 categories, and tied for the team league in HR with 9. 3B Bob Bailey also has 9 and has been the Wolverines’ 2nd best hitter amongst their starters.

Hank Greenberg and Al Kaline have been solid, if not spectacular, and Charlie Gehringer and Joe Wood have done better than expected in carrying large loads in the IF as rookies.

Professional hitter Juan Beníquez has professionally hit, slashing 395/511/526 in limited appearances as the club tries to open up more playing time for him. The challenge is that he plays the same positions as Cobb, Greenberg, and Bailey. But there are some ways to juggle the pieces to get his bat in the lineup a bit more often.

#What’s Not Going Right

The Wolverines are on the verge of abandoning their 3 catcher strategy. Ed Bailey and Ernie Lombardi are doing fine–not much more than that, but fine–but Bill Carrigan, who hit over .300 last year, is wallowing away with a .087/125/130 slash line. Mix that with the clear needs for more depth at either SS or CF or both, and Carrigan’s time with the big league club may be limited.

Tony Phillips may be showing his age, with the 39 year old–last year’s sparkplug–managing only a 168/267/287 slash line. Another key to last year’s team, Oscar Gamble, is doing only slightly better at 207/349/276. Gamble is still looking for his first homerun of the year, and while that OBP is nice, it’s not what the Wolverines really need from him.

THE PITCHING

#What’s Going Right

The bullpen has been excellent, with Mike Henneman producing saves at the same rate as last year, but this time being dominating as he’s done so, with an ERA and WHIP both under 1.00. Henneman has 9 saves, tied for the league lead, and both Chad Bradford and the surprising Billy Hoeft have been excellent getting to him.

Pete Conway has been a pleasant surprise since being called up, and there is talk of him moving into the rotation as, across 16 appearances, he’s arguably been the Wolverines’ best pitcher.

#What’s Not Going Right

The rotation is a hot mess. Nobody has more than 2 wins and only Charlie Root (2-3, 3.96) is really pitching well. Hal Newhouser has been OK, but Justin Verlander, Johnny Marcum, and especially Gene Conley have all struggled mightily. And it’s not an illusion: the more advanced stats (FIP, SIERA) tell the same story of Root being alright and the rest being pretty poor.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

There’s not a lot of immediate help at AAA on the mound. George Bechtel is off to a decent start, and is probably next in line to get a look.

Wally Moses, Brady Clark, Wes Covington, and Tony Lazzeri have all been looked at as options, depending on what happens with Phillips. And, veteran gloveman George Davis should be back from injury this month.

There’s not a lot here, honestly. Logan Hensley is the highest rated arm in the system, and he’s not great and teenage phenom Wander Franco is still a few years away, especially if Gehringer continues to develop.

WHAT’S NEEDED

The pitching to right itself and either Greenberg or Kaline to up their game, giving the team another top tier offensive threat to complement Cobb.

Storylines To Watch

Certainly Cobb and his assault on the triple crown. It’s doubtful he can maintain the SLG that is required, but if you hit .400, all things are possible.

Key Questions from Spring Training

In their Season Preview, there were 3 Key Questions for Detroit. Here’s an update on each.

  • Who is the 5th Starter? Unfortunately, with the current spate of injuries, this is now who are the 4th and 5th starters, and the answers seem to be Pete Conway and unknown, which is not a great answer.
  • Can they continue to carry 3 catchers? Not if Bill Carrigan continues to hit under .100.
  • The MI is a concern. Yeah, it is, but Billy Nash and Joe Wood have done well, although the team is looking forward to the return of George Davis’ glove later this month.

FEATURED SERIES

We’re looking at 3 game set at the end of the week against the Baltimore Black Sox where the Wolverines will welcome the (now struggling) defending champs to Tiger Stadium for a 3 game set.

Game One

Johnny Marcum left the game with a back injury in the 3rd inning, allowing only a single hit. The bullpen struggled, with Ray Sadecki, George Bechtel, Pete Conway, and Billy Hoeft giving up 7 runs in just over 5 innings.

Luckily, the Wolverines’ offense pounded out 17 hits and 12 runs, including 7 tallies in the bottom of the 7th en route to a 12-7 victory. Ty Cobb and Ernie Lombardi had 3 hits each and Charlie Gehringer 4 RBIs.

Chalk one up for the offense. This is sort of the peak of how Detroit can perform with the bat: a lot of hits spread up and down the lineup, a consistent ability to turn over multiple innings. It’s also an example of how fragile their staff is. Sadecki debuted well, but neither he nor Bechtel look likely to stick around, and Buddy Napier–expected to be key in late innings–only lowered his ERA to 7.00 with his scoreless inning at the end.

Marcum hit the DL after the game, with Conway likely to take his next start.

BAL 7 (Wetteland 0-5, 2 B Sv; Hampson 1 H) @ DET 12 (Hoeft 1-0)
HRs: BAL – Jacobson (1), Machado (9), Harper (5), Wallace (2); DET – Gehringer (6).
Box Score

Game Two

Justin Verlander turned in the best start of his career, allowing only 1 hit over 8 innings while striking out 11 and walking 3, but the victory went to Mike Henneman as a sacrifice fly from Charlie Gehringer in the bottom of the 9th gave the Wolverines a 1-0 win over Baltimore. Henneman showed flashes of his old self, walking 2 in the 9th before getting out of a jam of his own creation.

For the Black Sox, the game was worth more than the loss as Ned Garvin seemed to return to form with 6 shutout innings.

This game was needed after the bullpen was stretched thin yesterday. Most of all, though, Verlander has always showed this talent, but never really put it together. He still needs to show he can do it consistently (his ERA fell to 4.64 with his 8 shutout innings here, which is fine, but not great), but it’s a start.

BAL 0 (Olson 0-1) @ DET 1 (Henneman 3-0)
HRs: None.
Box Score

Game Three

The Wolverines went for the sweep with Charlie Root facing off against Baltimore’s Dennis Martínez. Neither ace was very good, with Detroit eventually building a 13-6 lead before the bullpen struggled to an eventual 13-10 win (and the series sweep).

Al Kaline had 3 hits and Hank Greenberg, Oscar Gamble, Tony Phillips, and both Ed and Bob Bailey went deep for Detroit who overcame 3 hits from Frank Robinson and 5 RBI’s from Dan McGann in the victory.

See the comments from the first game: another excellent day offensively, with contributions up and down the lineup and 5 SB’s to boot (from Joe Wood, Billy Nash, and Juan Beníquez, along with 2 from Ty Cobb). But Root’s problems continue, and George Bechtel had another bad outing, giving up a bases loaded triple to McGann and creating the save situation for Chad Bradford.

Still, a sweep is a sweep.

BAL 10 (Martínez 3-2) @ DET 13 (Wilson 1-0; Bradford 1 Sv)
HRs: BAL – McGann (4), Robinson (10), Cravath (11); DET – Gamble (3), Greenberg (10), Phillips (3), E. Bailey (3), B. Bailey (10).
Box Score

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